Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by becoming a member of Seattle Bubble.
September market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here’s a quick excerpt from their press release:
MLS Brokers Detecting Seasonal Slowdown in Some Areas But Expect Price Hikes to Continue in Much of Washington
“October will be the best month for selection and availability until late February,” proclaimed J. Lennox Scott when commenting on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
“The pressure cooker for the housing market continues as the typical seasonal market comes into play for new listings coming on the market,” stated Scott, the chairman and CEO of John L. Scott. He noted new listings during September and October typically shrink 30 percent – and even more during the winter months – when compared to spring and summer months.
Buyers may be emerging on news of slightly improving supply. “For only the second time this year the available inventory was over the one-month mark in King County,” said John Deely. “A notable number of new listings went past their offer review date, and more listings had price reductions.”
The only way that buyers may be “emerging on news of slightly improving supply” is if said buyers are delusional. Supply is not improving. It is still at the lowest level it has ever been for this time of year.
Now let’s dive into the numbers for September.
Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):
|Months of Supply||1.24||+22.6%||-15.9%|
Still no good news for buyers. Listings are scarce, sales are strong, and prices dipped, but no more than they do every year in the second half of the year.
Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:
Closed sales fell ten percent between August and September. Last year over the same period closed sales also decreased ten percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down less than a percent.
Pending sales fell eleven percent from August to September, and were down six percent year-over-year. It’s rather odd that for 2017 year-to-date, pending sales have been down an average of 3.8 percent from a year earlier, but closed sales have been up an average of 2.8 percent. There’s something strange about that.
Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.
Inventory rose ten percent from August to September, but was still down sixteen percent from a year earlier.
Here’s the chart of new listings:
New listings were down two percent month-over-month, and down four percent from last year.
Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).
Nothing new here unfortunately. As it has been for a few years now, it’s a great time to be a seller and a terrible time to be a buyer.
Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:
Year-over-year price changes fell a couple points between August and September but still sit at a very high level.
And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).
Down slightly from August, but still quite close to the all-time high.
September 2017: $625,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)
Here are a few articles about this month’s numbers from local news outlets: