NWMLS: Prices surge as sales slip and inventory inches up

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March market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here’s a quick excerpt from their press release:

Housing Market Back to “Pressure Cooker Situation” But Brokers Remind Sellers “Pricing Is Still Important”

Job growth and a recent run-up in mortgage rates has created an “extremely intense market for each new listing,” stated J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate in commenting on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“What used to be a quick action market for buyers is now, once again, an instant response market, and this has been the case since the first of the year,” remarked Scott, adding “This is especially true in the more affordable and mid-price ranges in all markets, and also pertains to luxury properties close to the job centers.”

“We have returned to an extremely intense market for each new listing due to extremely strong job growth and eager buyers who want to purchase before interest rates go higher,” Scott reported. “The housing market is back to a pressure cooker situation and we are witnessing high levels of sales activity intensity for each new listing coming on the market,” he commented.

Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma, commented on the frustration many would-be homebuyers are experiencing. “I think this last quarter especially, many buyers are feeling like they brought a knife to a gunfight, there’s been so much competition to buy a home.”

I’m honestly running out of snarky things to say about Lennox Scott and Dick Beeson’s endless breathless cheerleading.

Now let’s dive into the numbers for March.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

March 2018 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 1,687 +24.1% -0.9%
Closed Sales 1,883 +34.2% -9.4%
SAAS (?) 1.49 +30.3% +17.7%
Pending Sales 2,710 +43.1% -0.5%
Months of Supply 0.90 -7.5% +9.4%
Median Price* $689,950 +6.2% +15.0%

Despite the big bump up in prices to a new all-time high, there is some good-ish news for home buyers in the March data. Compared to a year ago, new listings are up, total listings were basically flat, and sales were down. The overall market is still definitely heavily skewed toward sellers, but at least last month’s trends are finally moving a little bit in buyers’ favor.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales rose thirty-four percent between February and March. Last year over the same period closed sales were up fifty-four percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down nine percent.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales were up forty-three percent from February to March, and were down half a percent year-over-year.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory rose twenty-four percent from February to March, and was down just one percent from last year. Although it was a relatively small decrease, it still marks a new historic low point for March inventory.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were up seven percent from a year ago.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The last few months the trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand on the year-over-year chart is at least a little hopeful for buyers.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Despite the new all-time high for prices, year-over-year price changes were down a bit from their recent high of nearly twenty percent in January.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

New all-time high. Pretty clearly I’ll need to update the axis on this chart very soon.

March 2018: $689,950
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article from the Seattle Times: Home prices have risen fastest in South Seattle, as citywide median nears $820,000

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

90 comments:

  1. 1
    Bitcoin Bubbles says:

    Are higher prices finally bringing out a few sellers?

  2. 2
    Rupert D says:

    Another big surge in year over year prices for Seattle. Is Seattle the new San Francisco? Took me about 30 seconds to find a website with similar charts to what The Tim provides for San Fran. The median San Fran house is now $1.6 million, roughly twice Seattle’s latest $820,000 price. See link and narrative below for San Fran Housing.

    https://www.paragon-re.com/trend/san-francisco-home-prices-market-trends-news
    San Francisco Updated Home Value Charts – April 2018

    The quarterly median house sales price in San Francisco jumped to a bit over $1,600,000 in Q1 2018 (sales reported by 4/4/18), a new all-time high, $100,000 above the previous high recently hit in Q4 2017. This is almost a 24% jump over the Q1 2017 median price of $1,300,000. For the past 6 years, prices have increased from Q1 to Q2, so it will be interesting to see what occurs in the current quarter just begun. The median CONDO sales price was $1,176,500 in Q1 2018, about a 4.5% increase over the Q1 2017 price of $1,125,000, and a tad below the peak hit in Q4 2017.

    Houses have become the scarce commodity in San Francisco, while condo price appreciation over recent years has been ameliorated by significant quantities of new-construction condo projects coming on market.

  3. 3
  4. 4
    ess says:

    RE: Rupert D @ 2

    Another big surge in year over year prices for Seattle. Is Seattle the new San Francisco? Took me about 30 seconds to find a website with similar charts to what The Tim provides for San Fran. The median San Fran house is now $1.6 million, roughly twice Seattle’s latest $820,000 price. See link and narrative below for San Fran Housing.

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Why did the chicken cross the road?

    Answer – to show the armadillo it could be done

    In other words – if SF remains the strong housing market it has been, and prices are double the amount for single family residences, then it is possible for Seattle housing to continue its increase in prices even though many say it is impossible for prices to increase much higher. Many of the conditions in the Bay area are the similar to the Puget Sound area – strong tech presence, and limited availability of land to construct single family houses,

    One difference – head 40 miles out of town in SF, and you hit San Jose and area where prices are even crazier. Head 40 miles out of Seattle, and you might find something reasonably priced.

    The crazier the prices in Seattle area – the better my impending retirement! Go crazy!!!

  5. 5
    David says:

    RE: ess @ 4 – LOL. I fully support you mantra! I m selling the minute mine hits $1M and heading to Mississippi to live like an Indian Guru.

  6. 6
    ess says:

    By David @ 5:

    RE: ess @ 4 – LOL. I fully support you mantra! I m selling the minute mine hits $1M and heading to Mississippi to live like an Indian Guru.

    Have checked out Arizona and housing a couple of years ago – hoping to go there again this spring.

    Have gotten tired of the traffic, the taxes, smelling urine on the streets of downtown Seattle and the incessant building. Plus I would rather live in a place where the automobile is considered a valuable means of transportation, not some sort of horrible machine to be banned.

  7. 7
    Rupert D says:

    This has been known for awhile and certainly will exert pressure to move housing/condo prices higher in 2020 if not before. Have to be competitive with Amazon and keep those young software engineers happy by moving to Seattle.
    Expedia’s New CEO Eyes 2020 for Seattle Move. Mark Okerstrom updates the timeline for the company’s planned move from Bellevue to the former Amgen campus overlooking Elliott Bay in Seattle.
    It’s 40 acres — you imagine there’s a lot of landscaping to figure out.” He says Expedia expects to start construction in early 2018 and begin moving into the new headquarters at the end of 2019. “I expect we’ll be probably completely done in the beginning-to-mid part of 2020. Might be some final shrubs to plant through 2020. The bulk of the move is going to happen (in 2020).” This will, of course, be a change for Expedia’s employees and will significantly impact the commute for many. By 2020, when the move is scheduled to happen, more than 5,000 people could be working for the company, said Okerstrom.

  8. 8
    Bitcoin Bubbles says:

    RE: Rupert D @ 2 – So as much as prices have run up here, we still have not closed the gap all that much with SF?

  9. 9
    stewru says:

    I’m honestly running out of snarky things to say about Lennox Scott and ***** Beeson’s endless breathless cheerleading.

    They are right though. For your average buyer, it is a piranha tank out there. Speaking from experience, there is no way to get into a home without participating in the insanity. It’s bleak. So JLS and DB’s comments actually very accurately describe the buyer experience.

  10. 10

    By ess @ 6:

    Plus I would rather live in a place where the automobile is considered a valuable means of transportation, not some sort of horrible machine to be banned.

    Yep, unlike here they actually build roads. What they’ve been doing down in Tacoma is practically commonplace in AZ, or at least the Phoenix area. And the side roads are not bad either, although their geography makes things a bit easier.

  11. 11
    N says:

    @8 Bitcoin – Pretty much, from Q4 2012 to Q4 2017 Seattle was up 74%, SF 62%

    Of note: Oakland (128%), San Jose (88%), LA (88%) all increased more than Seattle. Of course, if you forget about the most expensive markets, Dallas has gone up the most in pure % terms, a whopping 246% since 2012!!!!!

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/03/04/home-prices-movements-in-top-100-us-cities-since-housing-bubble-1/

  12. 12
    ess says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 9:

    By ess @ 6:

    Plus I would rather live in a place where the automobile is considered a valuable means of transportation, not some sort of horrible machine to be banned.

    Yep, unlike here they actually build roads. What they’ve been doing down in Tacoma is practically commonplace in AZ, or at least the Phoenix area. And the side roads are not bad either, although their geography makes things a bit easier.

    When we flew to Arizona for fun and housing research, we arrived in Phoenix, rented a car at the airport, and roared off to the Tucson area. I realized that we would arrive in Tucson right in the middle of rush hour, and silently reprimanded myself for not planning better. Driving on the freeway in Tucson at 5:30PM, I kept on looking around – where were all the cars, where was the traffic jam? None whatsoever. To paraphrase the Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, – Gee we aren’t in Seattle anymore. Not that Tucson is perfect – there is no freeway on then east side which makes getting around a bit tougher, but all in all – down there the car is not public enemy number one.

  13. 13
    pfft says:

    First sign of the end of the last bubble was YOY sales declines.

  14. 14
    pfft says:

    By ess @ 6:

    By David @ 5:

    RE: ess @ 4 – LOL. I fully support you mantra! I m selling the minute mine hits $1M and heading to Mississippi to live like an Indian Guru.

    Have checked out Arizona and housing a couple of years ago – hoping to go there again this spring.

    Have gotten tired of the traffic, the taxes, smelling urine on the streets of downtown Seattle and the incessant building. Plus I would rather live in a place where the automobile is considered a valuable means of transportation, not some sort of horrible machine to be banned.

    God forbid if we divert some money to people who walk, ride the bike or take the train(or all three?). Plus cars are very polluting and a very expensive mode of transport. Walking and biking are basically free compared to cars. Plus there are safety and health benefits.

  15. 15

    Of note, I received an email today from a National Builder who is offering a rate buy down or a long term lock. Not unusual to see this in weaker markets in the Fall. Not as common to see it in a hot market in April. I’m thinking they must be seeing some hesitancy from buyers or they wouldn’t be pulling this old rabbit out of their hat.

    I’m also seeing more sellers not waiting for the review date to hold out for the last possible dollar and a few more not selling until a few days after the review date than usual. In other words, fewer people willing to throw their hat in to the ring if expected to bid way over asking price to win, even though the prices on those not selling ON review date don’t appear to be out of line. They still go for asking price or a bit more a day or two after the review date. But fewer major bid ups. Some exceptions of course.

    I see a few people moving due to higher taxes in the areas with the heaviest tax increase, but most of those are older people who already own a second property on the Sound or one of the Islands. I did a spot check and a large number of recent sellers had bought their properties 4 years ago or so. The gains over that 4 year period were substantial enough for some to not want to sit around and watch it disappear. I am seeing some people take their tax free gain and go back home with it to where they came from where prices are much less. I don’t see them taking jobs elsewhere as in looking for the next best sweet spot. Some are staying and buying cheaper homes nearby.

    The best one was one of my clients who was able to go “home” with their 4 year gain and buy a bigger and newer house on 2/3rds of an acre with no mortgage at all. Young people with small children were able to take their 4 years here and convert that to a mortgage free lifestyle back where they came from. Pretty sweet!

  16. 16
    Question Mark says:

    Has anyone noticed that the distribution of annual trend lines in the first four charts seem to be forming their densest, most characteristic trends more in line with this year’s levels than years when, say, Inventory levels were higher? While higher inventories might give a better variety to choose from, these days the trend seems to be moving right along a well-worn path …

  17. 17
    David says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 15 – This Builder is offering this buy-down deal in Seattle? Maybe low rates have been around so long people are having difficulty processing it. Let’s hope the Fed doesn’t cause another recession by maintaining tight credit policy too long.

  18. 18
    Eddiemaster says:

    Good to see the prices continues its crazy climb, gearing for my retirement at the big four-O in a few years. Interesting in seeing how multitude of factors weighing in to drive the prices this year however. I couldn’t help but seeing the recent headwinds such as crazy hike in state tax (many experience an over 40% hike, including myself.. 40%!!!), rising mortgage rate, and just the ridiculous price to rent ratio. Further, this may be anecdotal, but it has gotten significantly more difficult to get money out of China, there was supposedly an age limit that was posted at the bank’s discretion.
    Then again, I felt that mortgage rate may actually stabilize or decline as the 10 and 30 yr treasury note become investor safe haven with China trade war or whatever dear Pres Trump has in store for future uncertainty. As for affordability, don’t we still trail several cities by a not-so-thin margin? Just maybe, the demand remains high for a few more years.. just a little longer…

  19. 19
    Weasel says:

    By ess @ 4:

    RE: Rupert D @ 2

    Another big surge in year over year prices for Seattle. Is Seattle the new San Francisco? Took me about 30 seconds to find a website with similar charts to what The Tim provides for San Fran. The median San Fran house is now $1.6 million, roughly twice Seattle’s latest $820,000 price. See link and narrative below for San Fran Housing.

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Why did the chicken cross the road?

    Answer – to show the armadillo it could be done

    In other words – if SF remains the strong housing market it has been, and prices are double the amount for single family residences, then it is possible for Seattle housing to continue its increase in prices even though many say it is impossible for prices to increase much higher. Many of the conditions in the Bay area are the similar to the Puget Sound area – strong tech presence, and limited availability of land to construct single family houses,

    One difference – head 40 miles out of town in SF, and you hit San Jose and area where prices are even crazier. Head 40 miles out of Seattle, and you might find something reasonably priced.

    The crazier the prices in Seattle area – the better my impending retirement! Go crazy!!!

    I’m not familiar with SF, but if you look south of Seattle you have commuter rail, and lower prices – The area between Auburn and Puyallup I call the goldilocks zone.

    We bought in Puyallup 3-4 years ago – with borrowing power limited to the low 200k range and my goal to use transit into and out of Seattle, this location checked all the boxes.

  20. 20

    RE: David @ 17RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 15 – Those interest rate buy downs have typically benefitted the seller, and only helped the buyer if they neither sold nor refinanced for several years. It’s been a long time since I’ve done the math on that, so I don’t remember how many years. It also could be that the math doesn’t work out well for anyone at lower interest rates, which might be the reason we haven’t seen that much lately.

  21. 21

    RE: Weasel @ 19
    Wishful Thinking

    California has recently discovered their 1st Amendment rights to free speech on immigration and believe me: “there is no love for Sanctuary Cities in the new California without its mouth taped closed”.

    Time changes everything….will the SF exodus help fund Seattle Sanctuary City high priced real estate? Time will tell…no one really knows. If I was getting out of a Sanctuary State would I want to move to another Sanctuary State? Hades no.

  22. 22
    wreckingbull says:

    By Eddiemaster @ 18:

    Good to see the prices continues its crazy climb, gearing for my retirement at the big four-O in a few years. Interesting in seeing how multitude of factors weighing in to drive the prices this year however. I couldn’t help but seeing the recent headwinds such as crazy hike in state tax (many experience an over 40% hike, including myself.. 40%!!!), rising mortgage rate, and just the ridiculous price to rent ratio. Further, this may be anecdotal, but it has gotten significantly more difficult to get money out of China, there was supposedly an age limit that was posted at the bank’s discretion.
    Then again, I felt that mortgage rate may actually stabilize or decline as the 10 and 30 yr treasury note become investor safe haven with China trade war or whatever dear Pres Trump has in store for future uncertainty. As for affordability, don’t we still trail several cities by a not-so-thin margin? Just maybe, the demand remains high for a few more years.. just a little longer…

    If retirement is really a few years off, might I suggest diversifying to the extent that you are not highly dependent on market conditions?

  23. 23
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 21 – Have you noticed how many murders these illegal alens are committing in Seattle. Amazing. Seattle metro had a 30% increase in murder last year.

  24. 24
    ess says:

    By Weasel @ 19:

    By ess @ 4:

    RE: Rupert D @ 2

    Another big surge in year over year prices for Seattle. Is Seattle the new San Francisco? Took me about 30 seconds to find a website with similar charts to what The Tim provides for San Fran. The median San Fran house is now $1.6 million, roughly twice Seattle’s latest $820,000 price. See link and narrative below for San Fran Housing.

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Why did the chicken cross the road?

    Answer – to show the armadillo it could be done

    In other words – if SF remains the strong housing market it has been, and prices are double the amount for single family residences, then it is possible for Seattle housing to continue its increase in prices even though many say it is impossible for prices to increase much higher. Many of the conditions in the Bay area are the similar to the Puget Sound area – strong tech presence, and limited availability of land to construct single family houses,

    One difference – head 40 miles out of town in SF, and you hit San Jose and area where prices are even crazier. Head 40 miles out of Seattle, and you might find something reasonably priced.

    The crazier the prices in Seattle area – the better my impending retirement! Go crazy!!!

    I’m not familiar with SF, but if you look south of Seattle you have commuter rail, and lower prices – The area between Auburn and Puyallup I call the goldilocks zone.

    We bought in Puyallup 3-4 years ago – with borrowing power limited to the low 200k range and my goal to use transit into and out of Seattle, this location checked all the boxes.

    Good for you. If people have to reside in the fanciest or hippest of Seattle neighborhoods – they better be prepared to pay. On the other hand – residential flexibility increases one’s choices. Yes, the commute may be a bit longer, but that is offset by the hundreds if not thousands per month that is saved on mortgage and taxes.

    When we relocated back to this area after (more) university, the debate was whether to reside in Seattle or South Snohomish County. We picked the latter, and as housing was cheaper – held on to our first house as we moved into the second.

    Not only are taxes lower, but we can still get around by car. And there isn’t some monster house or townhouse complex overlooking our backyard depriving us of all privacy.

    We even go to Seattle now and then, but recently have decreased the frequency as Seattle deteriorates and becomes more and more unpleasant. After all – the streets and parks in South Snohomish County don’t have homeless camping in them with the tacit permission of the local politicians. I don’t even take out of town guests to downtown Seattle anymore.

  25. 25
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 15

    Ardell, it helps when we all give our opinions on the basis of which part of the elephant we are touching.

    Here in 705 (Ballard, Greenlake, Wallingford, Fremont etc) the market is very hot. The spring market went from a little slow and hesitant to hammer & tongs almost overnight. I think people were a little rattled by the rise in interest rates and the turbulence in equities markets. But then everyone evidently decided to jump in all at once.

    I presold (with a good premium to balance the potential upside) the house I have been building in South Wallingford. We got an offer before sheetrock even went up. Another builder in the same area presold his house and it was not even as far along as mine. I am hearing from a lot of pre-sale agents who want to get things locked down for their clients before interest rates go up any further.

    I am seeing some things that don’t really make sense. A smallish OK quality new house with a great location and great view went pending this week with a $/sf figure that blows my mind. $743 / Sq. Ft! We really are becoming San Francisco.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2026-N-78th-St-98103/home/307475

    That thing of sellers not waiting for the review date is a tactic being driven increasingly by buyers’ agents. Example: A nice 5-year old townhouse is worth about, the CMA says, $915 to $925K. So they put it on the on the market for $899K and they hope to get bid up to $950K. Late on the first afternoon, they get an all cash offer for a clean $1 million with no inspection and no other contingencies. It would go straight to pending and close in two weeks. The catch? The offer expires at noon the next day and the selling agent is told very clearly that the offer will not be re-submitted at the end of the cattle-call period. The selling agent is also told that if they hear that you have been calling around town trying to gin up a higher offer, the buyer will see that as a sign of bad faith and withdraw it immediately. The sellers are well above their target price and the terms/conditions are ideal so of course they take it.

    I have no idea what that National Builder is up to, but maybe they are over-reacting to the slow start of the season and stock market volatility?

  26. 26
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 22 – I should and want to become more diversified. Currently only 10% of my equity lie in stocks and bonds and I hold little in cash. Maybe get a hand in crypto when BCH gets down to 4-5k usd. But real estate is just so easy in the local area that I become super lazy about other things.
    But you are correct, the time for diversification is upon me. With recent volatility due to uncertainty, where do I go? what do people think? Bonds? And wait for good timing to enter stocks?

  27. 27

    By Deerhawke @ 25:

    That thing of sellers not waiting for the review date is a tactic being driven increasingly by buyers’ agents. Example: A nice 5-year old townhouse is worth about, the CMA says, $915 to $925K. So they put it on the on the market for $899K and they hope to get bid up to $950K. Late on the first afternoon, they get an all cash offer for a clean $1 million with no inspection and no other contingencies.

    I’ll repeat what I’ve said before. Buyers used to expect to get a discount with cash. Now they use cash to pay more!

    BTW, I don’t have a problem with a seller accepting an offer in that instance (ignoring the no inspection part). What I’m seeing a lot though is properties going off the market very fast during the week and then you see the price wasn’t signficantly more than list, if not actually list. Unless you get a great offer, not staying on the market over a weekend is crazy.

    The other thing I’m seeing is agents making the offer review date a Monday. I guess they’re assuming all the buyers’ lenders work weekends.

  28. 28
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: David @ 23

    What total propaganda.

    Immigrants, illegal and otherwise, commit crime at a rate below that of native born americans, especially when taking into account economic status.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/us/trump-illegal-immigrants-crime.html

    http://www.nber.org/papers/w13229.pdf

    That old white guy who killed all those people in Las Vegas fits your demographic. Why didn’t we go out and round up a bunch of old white republicans when that happened?

  29. 29
    David says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 28 – That is propaganda. Obama legalized the Federal use of propaganda in ~2013. It had been illegal for about 70 years before that. Obama also ordered the FBI to stop tracking rape statistics by race and nationality as well. Did he order that because the Irish are raping people?

    And the statistics you use are lies of omission. I have little doubt that legally admitted aliens have a low crime rate. They were scrutinized prior to admission.

    Illegal aliens are committing a very high proportion of crime. As evidenced by the hazy crime reports in the local Seattle media.

    That guy in Las Vegas was a good shot. But I worked in NYC at the time of 9-11. That was WAY more impressive an event. I am personally familiar with a serial killer awaiting trial here in Seattle who tried to kill about 5 people and succeeded with one murder – he is from Somalia.

    92% of foreign nationals in federal prisons are illegal aliens: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/21/report-reveals-92-percent-foreign-nationals-in-federal-prisons-are-illegal-immigrants.html

    Don’t be such an easy Seattle-style mark there Deerhawke – pay attention to the details.

  30. 30
    Boater says:

    Anyone see this?
    https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/04/how-your-social-class-affects-where-youll-move/557060/
    It matches what I hear here that older, family oriented people say they want to leave and it matches the downtown I see these days, young and childless.

  31. 31
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Boater @ 30 – interesting study. Thanks for the link.

    King and Snohomish County’s listed within the top five counites in the US for a real estate Bubble. From the National Mortgage News as reported by Attom Data Affordability Index: http://tiny.cc/0vfhsy

    The article is from February this year so the median prices they provide are obviously higher at this time putting exceptional pressure on affordability.

    RE: Deerhawke @ 25 – Re: agents worried about interest rates; I doubt that the “demographic” buyer for your build in Wallingford is substantially impacted by interest rates —particularly at that price point.

  32. 32
    toad37 says:

    Stock market looks like a ‘1987 type of correction’ is on deck. No way house prices continue this climb. The numbers don’t add up and unless hyperinflation is around the corner the price increase party is over. Say hello to a bout of cleansing deflation. In fact, the big question is, when the drop starts where will the bottom be? Probably a lot lower than 99% of people think. Much needed Amazon regulation will be brutal to Seattle, but tech in general has jumped the shark as well… Google, Facebook, Netflix…. c’mon…

    This guy sums it up pretty well, imho

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgQZE5EV_1I

  33. 33
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 28:

    RE: David @ 23

    What total propaganda.

    Immigrants, illegal and otherwise, commit crime at a rate below that of native born americans, especially when taking into account economic status.

    FYI – Here is the data-based report from the DoJ, not from Huff Post, Fox News, WaPo, Breitbart, or even NYT.

    https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/departments-justice-and-homeland-security-release-data-incarcerated-aliens-94-percent-all

  34. 34
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: toad37 @ 32 – your post made a few claims that don’t add up. Stock market correction has come and go in the past, and it won’t have much to do with inflation. Also stock price has far outpaced the housing price increase, aside from effects of leverage. Anyway companies will continue to invest and expand near term, creating more jobs and subsequently more demand for housing. So sure there are headwinds, but in reality, a housing peak is extremely difficult to predict, if you are calling a top now, more than 99% chance you could be wrong. Further, Stock correction or bear market will drive the long term fixed mortgage down, increasing affordability. When people are fearful, it could just be to best time to buy.

  35. 35
    Erik says:

    RE: toad37 @ 32
    Toad couldn’t buy a house at the king county auction because prices were too high , so he decided the next week that the housing market is about to crash. I see you are frustrated that you couldn’t get a good deal, but that doesn’t mean the market is going to crash. The bubble hasn’t even begun yet since credit hasn’t loosened enough yet. Inventory is too low for a crash. Now be a good boy and sit on the sidelines watching the smart money get rich.

  36. 36
    ess says:

    Are the prices of Seattle housing sustainable – one of the great questions of all time. That question is in the class of questions such as what is the meaning of life, and which came first, the chicken or the egg.

    As a (small) real estate investor and home owner for over 40 years (I am not that old – I started really young). I don’t know the answer to all three of the above questions.

    There are so many factors involved, but I would hazard that it boils down to a combination of supply and demand and the ability and desire of the people on the demand side to pay for the limited supply.

    Yes – the recent examples of houses that have sold for what seems to be astronomical prices in the most desirable of Seattle neighborhoods north and south of the Mountlake Cut do take one’s breath away and seem at first blush to be excessive. But the buyers may be a small subset of wealth that have the kind of assets to purchase these homes without breaking out into too much of a sweat. And everything is relative – I remember when I thought one hundred thousand dollar home sales in those areas were excessive.

    An example I used before and will use again is the exotic car salesman. That person is not concerned about the average or mean salary or wealth in the community. Those numbers are irrelevant when selling a vehicle of a price tag of hundreds of thousands of dollars. The only issue for that person is if there are X plus buyers that have the desire and ability to buy X number of cars. The same example can be used for the sale of artwork by the famous auction houses in the US. I am not going to pay one hundred million dollars for a great master or impressionist painting – but some people sure are, and bidding up the price against each other.

    Same with these houses. So long as there are buyers with both the means and the desire to purchase – it doesn’t matter how crazy the numbers appear to mere mortals. And if there are more buyers in that category than houses – the market will continue to be sustained.

    I do know one thing. When assessing my own ability to own rentals – not only do I assess what my return could be, but also what would happen if the market suffered a dramatic decline, and the return was much lower. Could that investment survive in such an environment. And with the dramatic increase in both housing prices and rents – that cushion for survival has dramatically increased over the past few years.

    So – we will have to wait and see what will happen with real estate in this area. But it is sure interesting!!

  37. 37

    By Boater @ 30:

    Anyone see this?
    https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/04/how-your-social-class-affects-where-youll-move/557060/
    It matches what I hear here that older, family oriented people say they want to leave and it matches the downtown I see these days, young and childless.

    I wonder if that study looks at the income before moving, or if it is just seeing the differences in jobs for the various economies. If you move here for a high paying tech job you’re going to be making a lot of money. If you move to the rust belt, chances are after that you won’t be making a lot of money after you move.

    As to your last comment, I lived downtown in the late 70s, early 80s. Even back then I considered it an area for the young and very old, but not so much the in-between. And at the time it was also very economically diverse, with very poor and very rich.

  38. 38

    By S-Crow @ 31:

    RE: Boater @ 30 – King and Snohomish County’s listed within the top five counites in the US for a real estate Bubble. From the National Mortgage News as reported by Attom Data Affordability Index: http://tiny.cc/0vfhsy.

    Oh no! A study predicting the future based on one or two factors! Scary! /sarc

    I’m glad they have such things to keep statisticians employed, but other than that they are worthless. Reminds me of the Economy.com study reported in Money Magazine, October 2002 where they predicted bubbles for Seattle and San Francisco. One of the things they looked at to reach their erroneous conclusions was also income growth. What were the prices here back in 2002? If only there were some readily available graph that we could easily look at.

  39. 39

    RE: wreckingbull @ 22
    Wreckingbull

    I’m retired and sold all my stocks and put the money in CDs….almost all retirees follow this plan. Once us few lucky rich dogs get the set retirement monthly income and are saving like half of it anyway….don’t gamble. You don’t have to anymore.

    That’s why we need 5-8% interest on safe CDs….most mortgaged folks in Seattle can’t save fast enough [or at all] to get a retirement income big enough in safe 401Ks. Stocks are a way to maybe get more profit or losses….ya hope for the best and gamble on the worst case happening.

  40. 40

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 38
    Kary I Was Reading This Week’s Bloomberg Businessweek

    And stumbled on more gray fog on economic planning….they stated Software Engineers [I assume they were degreed, but the article didn’t say] worked high tech company source code. Company source code is not taught in colleges, its an intellectual property (IP) secret that CEOs like Facebook’s Zuckerberg keeps secret for his company’s survival. Sooooo…why does Microsoft need college degreed source code developers? They don’t, the high school graduates from the Seattle area are more qualified or just as qualified. Why is this horrifying to the NWO rich elite you say? Because their plan is to replace Americans with cheap foreign H-1Bs [with chain migration too].

  41. 41
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 39 – 5-8% CD? Please provide evidence. I’m looking to retire from corporate world in a few years and would be happy to get 8% CD.

    As for your claim that Seattle people can’t save fast enough due to mortgage, it simply is false if not anecdotal. Real estate growth is also compounded and only taxed at whatever local property tax rate (lower than my fed income tax rate) that is deductible, not to mention the 500k tax free capital gain, don’t overlook the power of that when you compared to a CD. Stay objective.

  42. 42
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 31

    I agree with Kary on this–can’t say I am convinced. It is not clear who was involved in this “analysis”. Also it starts with a lot of preconceptions which must evidently be shared by people who go to that site. They have chosen some of the right variables, but there needs to be a lot more in-depth and time-based analysis to reach those conclusions. Also they throw out the word “bubble”as though that is a technical term that has some widely agreed meaning. And of course, it doesnt.

    I lived in New York City in the 80’s. The transportation system to the burbs had overloaded, the commutes had become hellish and after a long period of white flight, people re-discovered the city. Suddenly real estate in the city, which was dirt cheap in the 70’s, skyrocketed. Immediately every news outlet had stories on the impending bubble. And when there was a correction, everyone who had been predicting a bubble said they had called it. Then after 6 months the market surged back up again. And the same people started calling the bubble again. A few years later there was another correction. The people who predicted a bubble crowed about there prescience again. And on and on. But in the meantime, that market continued on a long-term trajectory up and to the right. Those who bought and held (or bought and leveraged and reinvested) who survived the periodic corrections did absurdly well.

    Boater’s link is much more instructive about longer-term trends in this area. https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/04/how-your-social-class-affects-where-youll-move/557060/

    Think of it this way.

    At a national level, America has always had tremendous vitality because we welcome the world’s hard-working and entrepreneurial and have made them the engine of tremendous US economic growth.

    What this link shows us is that the same pattern you have seen internationally is occurring within the US. Seattle and the other entrepreneurial hotspots are bringing in the young, energetic and innovative. To make room for them, we are exporting calcified old change-resistant farts like Software Engineer to Kansas City and David to Mississippi.

    And the sooner the better. The great braindrain that has been fueling this area needs their real estate to keep the cycle moving!

  43. 43
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eddiemaster @ 41

    There are no 5-8% safe CDs. You can find real current rates at http://www.bankrate.com. Nobody on this site really pays any attention to Software Engineer. After a while of listening to his ga-ga rants, you too will learn to just skip past his posts.

    If you want to diversify out of investing in real estate, my suggestion is that you pick up a book called The Boglehead’s Guide to Investing which lays out the low-cost common-sense investing approach of Vanguard founder John C. Bogle. It is available at Amazon here:

    https://www.amazon.com/s/?ie=UTF8&keywords=the+bogleheads%27+guide+to+investing&tag=googhydr-20&index=aps&hvadid=241644869463&hvpos=1t1&hvnetw=g&hvrand=17533893645881993937&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=e&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9061305&hvtargid=kwd-2337544928&ref=pd_sl_5eyli99rr7_e

    After you do that, you can check out the Boglehead website at https://www.bogleheads.org/

    Somebody on this site recommended the book and the website. Whoever you were, thank you. My wife and I had stumbled to a lot of the same ideas, conclusions and investment allocations. We would have saved a lot of time and trouble if we had known of this investing community.

  44. 44

    RE: Deerhawke @ 42
    We Have Plenty of Legal Americans Out of Livable Work Pay, They’re Called Millenials

    BTW, the Milenials impress SWE….they interface with the economy far better than haughty pig headed Progressive Gen-X and Baby Boomer….i.e., they got basically free/inexpensive Hulu and Netflix seriously competing with COMCAST and Dish. They talk to their friends more and interface for lower prices much better than SWE for best price. They have smarts….we’re the stupid haughty buyers that pay too much….LOL

    They had to learn these tricks BTW to survive in this horrifying NWO.

  45. 45

    RE: Deerhawke @ 43
    LOL Deerhawke

    Attack SWE’s freedom of speech….spoken like a true open border Progressive….truth scare ya Deerhawke?

  46. 46
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 43 – much appreciated. I do invest in stocks and shoes haha, not so much forex, Treasurys bonds or crypto though I’m learning about them and ways to use them as hedges. My problem is that I don’t know how much money my heart can handle being in equity at once, which I felt like is one of the many reasons that many Chinese people throw a lot of their money in real estate. And it’s that crowd sourcing mentality that I feel that RE is ‘safe’ and lazy. Although perhaps same can be said about 401K’s effect on stocks. I am seeking alternatives to RE that I can prove to be a better way of investing without losing sleep over.

  47. 47
    toad37 says:

    Look guys, I’m not trying to be a jerk, I just don’t want to see a bunch of people get hurt. It’s pretty easy to see that this is not sustainable. Just be open minded and spend a little time on researching the opposite side of what you think is going to happen. I’m wise enough to realize I might be wrong… You always have to have a deflationary game plan and an inflationary game plan. We’ve had a LOT of inflation in asset markets due to the Fed’s policy after 2008. In my opinion that has caused a misallocation of pricing as well as a misallocation of risk.

    If we head into deflation for a while, one thing to watch is the strength of the dollar. In my opinion it is about to run up (strengthen) , and that might produce headwinds to further asset price increases. If the dollar strengthens, I’ll be watching for a technical area where I think the dollar tops before flipping back to the idea of purchasing assets that will go up in an inflationary scenario.

    This is all just my opinion and it could easily be wrong, but if I’m right, I think it spells trouble for anyone leveraged (big mortgages or on margin in the stock market, etc.) All is ask is be safe and be prepared.

  48. 48
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 45 – still waiting for your justification on those claims in post -39, see -41. Can’t identify the ‘truth’ you were referring to.

  49. 49

    RE: toad37 @ 47 – And to be clear, by attacking that study I’m not trying to say bad things are not ahead. I’m just attacking that particular study.

  50. 50

    RE: David @ 5
    Yes David

    Cash in the chips and play it safe if you can…..I assume you’re retiring soon….do you have Milenial Children?

    If ya do and ya love ’em….of course you want no NWO depressing their pay.

    I’d join ya …..but I’ve got a “severely” special needs adult that cheap places like Kansas don’t support. So I pay the company tolls in Seattle for my son’s sake. Win/win for me….but I still grumble about the Seattle Progressive Local Government’s Taxation. LOL

    Its called freedom of speech.

  51. 51

    One thing not discussed much is the behavior of SOME builders in different markets. When things are good SOME will screw over agents and buyers because they can. When things are bad they’ll do some incredible things–I even once had a builder allow my buyer to move in before closing!

    What prompts this is I was just reviewing a builder addendum that clearly wasn’t written by an attorney. A while ago I looked at one builder contract and concluded it wasn’t too bad, particularly given the market. But the one today was so poorly drafted it was a joke.

    I particularly liked the timelines. The builder had 360 days from pouring the foundation to complete the work, but if they didn’t meet that deadline the buyer’s only remedy was the ability to back out, and if they did back out the buyer would still lose their earnest money. So basically their remedy after the 360 days was the same as before, assuming forfeiture of EM was the remedy in the main contract (they didn’t seem to overrule that).

    But then, despite their lenient construction schedule, the financing contingency was to be waived in X days. Pretty hard to know if you’re going to get financing on a building that isn’t even built yet. Oddly though, they didn’t want a pre-approval letter until three days AFTER mutual acceptance. That part might have actually been written by an attorney! ;-)

    Then there were the inspection provisions. Inspections were to be allowed “on speculative purchases only.” Does anyone know what they were thinking? The rest didn’t make much sense either.

    Then there was closing. Closing was three days after a certificate of occupancy is issued, but that included weekend, so if it’s issued on a Friday the closing is on Monday. That would possibly be tough even for a cash buyer, unless escrow will take a cashier’s check. Oh, the punch list is within 5 days of closing, but since you won’t know the closing date until within 3 days of closing it’s really just a three day period. At least they provide that the punch list items won’t be completed before closing!

    Septic permits is also interesting. The builder has 120 days to get a septic permit, but if they fail to do so the price increases .05%. At least the buyer can reject that and with their EM back.

    On a positive note, they do warn buyers about capacity charges.

    Anyway, in the area of new construction the contract terms are interesting. For resale the NWMLS forms are much more balanced between buyers and sellers, and while many are far from perfect (e.g. Form 22A and 22AD), they at least are professionally drafted and tweaked from time to time. When you get into the area of new construction you don’t know what you’ll get.

    BTW, this is hardly unique to builders. Some bankruptcy trustee forms are horrible as are some REO bank forms.

  52. 52
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: toad37 @ 32
    The name of the link is, “These 5 cities will be utterly destroyed in the Next Market Crash”. The 5 cities are Seattle, SF, LA, Chicago, NYC, and Washington. I won’t make fun of the guy for being unable to count to 6, but his unifying theory is that these are the cities where the “liberals” live. They undermine capitalism by making monopolies in the hot industries – all of which will soon be over. Not to worry, though; he sings the song of precious metals – so popular for so many years. Also, he has a link to turn your 401K into Bitcoin. Yikes, I hope you have an automobile sized grain of salt..

  53. 53

    RE: Deerhawke @ 25

    I think the National Builder is addressing people’s fear that interest rates will be much higher by the time the homes are completed and are giving the money for people to buy a long rate lock. Low inventory is causing their completed product to be sold. The remaining lots that are possibly not even in permit stage yet or just past permit stage are lingering because at current rates the buyers are starting to smack up against their affordability wall and are afraid by the time the home is completed the rates will cause them to not qualify at all after they have committed to the purchase. They can use it to buy a longer lock OR buy down the rate. That option seems to be to just to even up the benefit to those buying the completed spec houses. The builder is Toll (formerly Camwest here). Not putting a link just because it throws comments into moderation to do so. But you can see the offering in their banner. I haven’t seen this type of incentive in years in Spring vs Winter, but given it’s National, I think the targeted areas are not here and this area is just reaping the benefits without good reason. Still, good to know when weakness is starting to hit elsewhere even if it never translates to here following suit.

    As to the Green Lake house, I used to work around the corner and know the area well. I tend to focus more on resale while you focus primarily if not solely on new construction. Low Inventory goes to a whole ‘nuther level when narrowing it down to new construction only. New is a severely limited commodity in Single Family housing, above and beyond the broader low inventory stats. What I am seeing of concern on The Eastside is low quality builders buying inferior land plats and seeking high prices for complete crap. Those are the only ones where I see a bit of a drag.

    Once in awhile I do the stats based on year built ranges. It’s misleading to show a filtered down average appreciation mixing the new and newer houses with the old split entries on The Eastside or old bungalows in North Seattle. The real numbers need to be separated out, but with low volume there is not much benefit to sifting that out.

  54. 54
    whatsmyname says:

    By David @ 29:

    ….
    92% of foreign nationals in federal prisons are illegal aliens: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/21/report-reveals-92-percent-foreign-nationals-in-federal-prisons-are-illegal-immigrants.html

    Don’t be such an easy Seattle-style mark there Deerhawke – pay attention to the details.

    Deerhawke’s link, which you call propaganda, already and specifically dealt with the dishonest argument being used by some people about the high percentage of illegals vs. legal immigrants in federal prisons.

    About a third of those illegals in federal prison are there for immigration crimes – you know, like being here. While a crime, it’s one that we are not subject to, hardly a conviction of predatory behavior.

    From a logical standpoint, comparing statistics of two non-native born populations says nothing about the relationship of one of those populations to the native born population. The article does present numbers about immigrant populations representing a lesser part of the prison population than their part in the population as a whole. There is a claim made that this holds true for the illegal component as well regarding crimes of predation. Although it is not well documented or proved, neither is the reverse.

    I would challenge you to not be such an easy Fox-style mark, and pay attention to the details.

  55. 55
    toad37 says:

    RE: That link I posted. I’m just suggesting his macro-view is worth considering, at least on some level. I actually think precious metals get hit if we see deflation. On the gold etf GLD I’m considering 72 area (the 2006 high) to be a possibility. GLD is currently at $126. So I don’t agree with him on his current precious metal call. Altho, I may be wrong.

  56. 56
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 54

    When the speed limit is 60, everybody does 65, right? But that landscaping truck over in the right lane is going 58 because they don’t want a hassle with La Policia who might turn them over to La Migra. And when the guy they are doing the landscaping for decides to short them or stiff them, they don’t Roundup his lawn like a native born crew would. They just suck it up, tighten their belts and send less money home.

    Anybody who has worked with laborers knows that if a native-born guy doesn’t show up for work and doesn’t call, it is likely he is in jail for drugs, domestic abuse, DUI, fighting in a bar, outstanding warrants, etc. If a guy with a Spanish surname (and what looks like a valid SS#) doesn’t show up, it is because he was a few MPH over the speed limit coming down the back side of that hill into the speedtrap.

    The US born guy is in the county jail until he can make bail. He might be in and out for a while because he will probably get a county jail sentence. The Mexican guy is in federal detention and you wont see him again because he will be deported.

    The American guy does not show up in Jeff Session’s stats while the Mexican does. And when it is spun through Fox news, suddenly the hard-working Mexican guy who sends money back to support his aging parents is somehow a national security threat.

  57. 57
    Ross says:

    By toad37 @ 47:

    Look guys, I’m not trying to be a jerk, I just don’t want to see a bunch of people get hurt. It’s pretty easy to see that this is not sustainable. Just be open minded and spend a little time on researching the opposite side of what you think is going to happen. I’m wise enough to realize I might be wrong… You always have to have a deflationary game plan and an inflationary game plan. We’ve had a LOT of inflation in asset markets due to the Fed’s policy after 2008. In my opinion that has caused a misallocation of pricing as well as a misallocation of risk.

    If we head into deflation for a while, one thing to watch is the strength of the dollar. In my opinion it is about to run up (strengthen) , and that might produce headwinds to further asset price increases. If the dollar strengthens, I’ll be watching for a technical area where I think the dollar tops before flipping back to the idea of purchasing assets that will go up in an inflationary scenario.

    This is all just my opinion and it could easily be wrong, but if I’m right, I think it spells trouble for anyone leveraged (big mortgages or on margin in the stock market, etc.) All is ask is be safe and be prepared.

    US hasn’t had a deflationary environment since the depression; 1930-1933. In other words, while it doesn’t hurt to have a backup plan for deflation; it shouldn’t be the base case. Given a potential trade war with China (and others) and president who has a history of bankruptcy and not paying his bills, higher inflation is my expectation. Or more likely, stagflation, where both inflation and low growth occur together. That said, I’m at a loss on which asset classes to invest in. I need to study the late 70s/early 80s to get a better understanding of what did well in that environment.

  58. 58
    David says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 56 – My advice to answer all these clever pro-illegal-immigration arguments is to visit a jail. Take a walk around. Go to the courthouse and just sit there and watch. If you – are ok with what you see then fine.

    Now move to where these people live in the USA including just in your local community – NOT Wallingford. Forget arguing and just enjoy by actually DOING not just talking.

    Another inconvenient fact – about 50% of ALL mass shootings have been committed by immigrants & their children (legal or not).

    That being said, I actually practice what I say including living around areas heavily populated by immigrants (legal). I’ve also made a fair amount of money from real estate in communities with legal immigrant communities. But NOT areas populated by a transient illegal alien population, Tijuana, Mexico has had 550 murders since the start of the year. Why would I want to invest in an area heavily populated with shadowy people from places like that?

  59. 59
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 56 – “The American guy does not show up in Jeff Session’s stats while the Mexican does.”

    Pure speculation. Texas and Arizona may have crime statistics on illegals if they collect them.

  60. 60

    RE: David @ 23
    Much of the IA Crime is Hard to Prove

    The statistics have been buried or ignored by the Progressives. Terrorism….same MSM fake news and stealth to hide it.

  61. 61

    RE: Eastsider @ 58
    Crime Statistics

    Are numbers just like Tim uses for honest real estate analysis….without complete data trend analysis, we’re easily brainwashed by lies.

  62. 62
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 59 – This is true. Lots of cover-up in Seattle. But the real world is very unforgiving if you live by the falsities they promote.

    Example: I once sat in a courtroom listening to a Honduran illegal alien plead guilty to rape. He decided he’d go ahead and get a couple of other crimes off his conscience also: 1) raping his sister back home, 2) meretricious relationship with a donkey.

    Another time I watched an illegal Mexican plead guilty to serial rape. He’s stakeout neighborhoods for days and wait til the male left home. Then go to the door and knock or just break in. If she answered – she was his friend for the day – ALL day.

    Just look at Oregon where that Indian Guru committed massive immigration fraud and tried to bio-warfare murder an entire town of locals so his commune could take over the government. Legal immigrant who immediately went all “Jim Jones” on the USA.

    The media is in the business of selling advertisements and revenue. They don’t report on a lot (or even most) crime that is SO distasteful that it would turn off their audience.

  63. 63
  64. 64
    toad37 says:

    As you most definitely know, deflation destroys a debt based system, and we have turned into a hyper-debt driven system. That is why they went nuclear with QE; to ward off a total collapse of our debt based economy. Now 10 years later, it seems not many learned anything from 2008…. it scared me straight, I’ll tell you that.

    If I’m right, cash will be king until they decide they have to go to some kind of crypo-currency? No idea how far RE prices fall… Wouldn’t even know where to guess.. 40-60% ?… good luck to us all.

  65. 65
    Deerhawke says:

    I grew up in a proud working class immigrant family. (I suppose you wouldn’t count them because they were white– never mind.) I work with immigrants on a daily basis from Mexico, Honduras and Kenya. Some of the houses I have sold went to talented immigrants on the other side of the technology economy who came here from Australia, China, India and Ireland. For me they are a part of what makes America interesting. And what makes America great. (Note: Not Great Again.)

    Paranoid old coots like you are not what makes America great. You make it feel smaller and more ignorant.

    You guys are so hopped up on Fox scare stories that you are stupid enough to believe Trump’s phony rhetoric about them . Ahhh! Bad hombres from S—hole countries under the bed!!!

    You really should go to live in Trump’s rural America where people look more like the ideal Norwegian immigrants. It would be better for all of us if you took off soon for Kansas and Mississippi. We need your real estate for younger, smarter, more innovative people. And the real estate agents sure need the listings. Why wait? Go now.

    By the way, since you are old farts anyway, good luck finding a way to get your bedpans emptied and your wheelchairs pushed without dealing with immigrant labor. You think there will be a lot of Norwegians willing to do it for you?

  66. 66

    RE: Aldreth @ 63

    If you are going to read the link, also read Jonathan’s longer explanation in his weekly newsletter. http://www.millersamuel.com/note/april-6-2018/?goal=0_69c077008e-ddb0f33cc7-98826781

    “…Now that these units have largely been sold off, their impact overstated the decline in sales and prices. For example, the median sales price of all apartments that closed in the first quarter fell 2% YOY to $1,077,500. However when the market was parsed out by existing and new development, both segments showed a rise in median sales price. That’s because new development sales dropped 54% YOY (while their median sales price rose 3.9% YOY to $2,802,937) and existing sales fell 17.5% YOY (while their median sales price rose 4.3% to $965,000)…”

  67. 67
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Aldreth @ 63

    Good piece. Now that is a trend that bears watching. (And maybe the more you watch it, the more you might become bearish…)

    It seems that what we have in common with NYC is the increasing cost of ownership caused by
    1) the new tax bill and
    2) rising interest rates.

    What we do not have in common with NYC is the tremendous number of condos and coops built there over the past few years. The Seattle City Council is always talking about bringing down the cost of housing, but has done nothing to work with the state on the condo insurance problem, something that could have a direct impact on the supply of new housing built here.

    My thought is that if we are going to have a correction, it is going to come from the same sector that has been responsible for most of the new demand over the past several years– technology.

    More than at any time in the past, we are part of a heavily technology dependent economy. During the so-called dot-com bubble that burst in 2000/2001, Eastside real estate was heavily affected, but there was little effect on real estate in Seattle.

    Going forward, I don’t think Seattle will get off as lightly if we have a similar technology market correction.

  68. 68
    toad37 says:

    “The topline stats are staggering regardless of how often they’re repeated. From the 2009 low to the recent highs, the S&P 500 advanced 331%. Meanwhile, Facebook advanced 413% (from its 2013 IPO), Amazon surged 2,102%, Apple 1,123%, Netflix 5,349%, and Google 586%. Combining those names with Microsoft and Nvidia, just eight tech stocks now account for over 15% of the entire S&P 500 index, and a staggering 48% of the Nasdaq 100.”

    https://latest.13d.com/big-tech-passive-algorithmic-investing-more-pain-market-action-threats-8e25503fd1e4

    This correction could be breathtaking, simply because of how high the criminals jacked up the market…. we’ll see…

  69. 69
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: toad37 @ 68 – Out of curiousity, where do you put your money in currently? Do you own or rent your current place? Are you placing shorts and puts on these “soon to be corrected” stocks? How are you hedging in your portfolio at this moment? How have your investment strategies changed over the past 5 years that led you to this point?

    Not to be prying, it is interesting to hear someone so bearish, but actually back it up by taking actions.

  70. 70
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 65 – As someone who does live in rural America, I do have to say your perspective is not very accurate. I know it is hard for you to fathom, but yes, white people do indeed perform dirty work, and do so with pride. These people are my friends and neighbors.

    Let’s take the race-baiting elsewhere.

  71. 71

    RE: Deerhawke @ 67
    Facebook Zuckerberg Facing Prison Time?

    The probe hearings are today….he should be fired from his job for the breach scandal IMO…but he owns too much stock control.

    Google is next and Amazon is a big fish worth frying too. Its what the Progressive screamed for….income equality.

  72. 72
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 70

    Race-baiting? I was responding to something that David brought into the conversation, completely off topic, about immigration.

    I did not mention race.

    Maybe the fact that you are having a reaction to what I am saying and drawing a line that I did not draw tells us you more about you– and Trump’s rural America– than it says about me. Hmmm?

  73. 73

    Milenials Have Much Better Economic Interface Than Haughty Gen-X and Rich Baby Boomer

    I learn from them, their cost saving tips….they’re much better at it than penny pinching SWE….LOL

    Examples: Netflix and Hulu over cable and dish….getting the Hades out of Sanctuary Cities. I was talking to two Milenials yesterday [plumbers working on my leaky water valve and broke sump pump] and as they saved my house from getting damaged; they also showed concern for work details and unlike Progressive thinking, we’re open minded to all alternatives. They were quick to get an emergency pump under my house and even with my HOA slowing down water main shutoff they were able to divert the leak and get my sump pump installed quickly….they listen and act. My partially leaky diverted valve gets replaced tomorrow…the bill is horrifying BTW…about $5-6K….but the Milenials gave me a firm estimate and didn’t charge extra for Sunday work.

    I replaced my 1991 Water Heater too….I do this kind of Safety Engineering critical work only on a plumber warranty….if it leaks in 5 years they pay for the damages. I’d replace that $4 toilet flap that causes house floods when it eventually gets stuck open [not if, when] with a $300 plumber warranty installation too.

    Pay me now or pay me a lot more later.

  74. 74

    RE: Deerhawke @ 72
    Admit It Deerhawke

    Trump won the election and do you want America to fail under Trump? If you do most of us totally disagree with your Progressive pigheadedness.

  75. 75
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 72
    Just ignore him. Sorry you have to deal with Wreckingbull. An honest person like yourself shouldn’t have to entertain a cheater like Wreckingbull. Last I knew Wreckingbull was a retired programmer. Then he was back working again. Now he’s a farmer in rural America but still a programmer. Next time we turn around, he will morph into a new character. He’s changed characters about 5 times in the course of a couple years. The whole thing leaves me scratching my head. This is fuzzy math.

  76. 76
    Lars says:

    RE: ess @ 12

    We lived in Tucson for a time and really enjoyed it – the food, the sky, the people, and yes, no traffic.

    What to look out for – In the time we lived there for work (less than 2 yrs), my bosses dog got bit by a rattlesnake despite having a heavy duty fence to prevent such things; A Trantula the size of my hand would greet me every night during the hottest months at my door, trying to sneak in as soon as I opened it for the air conditioning – it was so large then when I screamed at it, he ran away looking more like a small animal than a spider, only to greet me again the next day; Scorpions will find their way into the house despite keeping your drains closed and tight mesh over every vent; Sewer Roaches – we lived n a nice, clean part of town, in a condo that was well maintained. I heard a bout this but was shocked to witness…one night an enormous roach flew out of our bathtub drain that we had left open…and later, the cats had got him. His underside looked like a crab. Then at night, during summer, Javalenas will cry a haunting sound for hours every night. Tucson is beautiful, still small, and relatively cheap. Winters are great. Just know that there are serious critters to deal with all around you and be careful. If you, or anyone in your family has the ick factor for critters, this is should be a serious consideration as it’s a challenge residents must live with.

  77. 77
    pfft says:

    By David @ 58:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 56 – My advice to answer all these clever pro-illegal-immigration arguments is to visit a jail. Take a walk around. Go to the courthouse and just sit there and watch. If you – are ok with what you see then fine.

    Now move to where these people live in the USA including just in your local community – NOT Wallingford. Forget arguing and just enjoy by actually DOING not just talking.

    Another inconvenient fact – about 50% of ALL mass shootings have been committed by immigrants & their children (legal or not).

    That being said, I actually practice what I say including living around areas heavily populated by immigrants (legal). I’ve also made a fair amount of money from real estate in communities with legal immigrant communities. But NOT areas populated by a transient illegal alien population, Tijuana, Mexico has had 550 murders since the start of the year. Why would I want to invest in an area heavily populated with shadowy people from places like that?

    Wrap your head around this.

    Almost 100% of American crimes are due to our immigration system…

    What immigration policy would have stopped the crimes of the Trump people? What are we up to? 3 pleading guilty and 2 others not?

  78. 78
    pfft says:

    Pro-tip for Monday. Don’t think, know. Like when you go to the store and come home only to find out that you don’t have the ingredient you thought you did. For some people this is a revolutionary idea. They just “grip and rip” their ideas and political opinions.

  79. 79
    Jake says:

    @68 toad37

    It sure feels like the recession is coming. I just hope that when/if the bubble bursts my house that I bought two years ago isn’t underwater and at least has enough equity to save my down payment. My home in South Seattle has gone up about 40% in less than two years. If it lost 20% overnight, I’d be in no better/worse position if the rest of the market went with it.

  80. 80
    greg says:

    By Deerhawke @ 65:

    I grew up in a proud working class immigrant family. (I suppose you wouldn’t count them because they were white– never mind.) I work with immigrants on a daily basis from Mexico, Honduras and Kenya. Some of the houses I have sold went to talented immigrants on the other side of the technology economy who came here from Australia, China, India and Ireland. For me they are a part of what makes America interesting. And what makes America great. (Note: Not Great Again.)

    Paranoid old coots like you are not what makes America great. You make it feel smaller and more ignorant.

    You guys are so hopped up on Fox scare stories that you are stupid enough to believe Trump’s phony rhetoric about them . Ahhh! Bad hombres from S—hole countries under the bed!!!

    You really should go to live in Trump’s rural America where people look more like the ideal Norwegian immigrants. It would be better for all of us if you took off soon for Kansas and Mississippi. We need your real estate for younger, smarter, more innovative people. And the real estate agents sure need the listings. Why wait? Go now.

    By the way, since you are old farts anyway, good luck finding a way to get your bedpans emptied and your wheelchairs pushed without dealing with immigrant labor. You think there will be a lot of Norwegians willing to do it for you?

    Great post DeerHawke !

  81. 81
    greg says:

    By softwarengineer @ 74:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 72
    Admit It Deerhawke

    Trump won the election and do you want America to fail under Trump? If you do most of us totally disagree with your Progressive pigheadedness.

    Dude you are nothing more than a weak sauce attention seeking troll. You should really try Reddit or City-data, the folks there love your kind of BS, you would feel right at a home…

  82. 82
    pfft says:

    By Jake @ 79:

    @68 toad37

    It sure feels like the recession is coming.

    Why? The only thing bad going for us is that the economy has been so okay for so long.

  83. 83
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: greg @ 81
    RE: Erik @ 75

    Thanks guys. I appreciate the support. I would much rather discuss Seattle real estate on this site. I really believe that if we all have a lot to share and a lot to teach each other.

    But I just get really tired of crusty old fogeys going off topic and expecting everyone else to respect their first amendment right to spout ignorance. And when you call them on it, they tell you its not fair and they cry. Good grief.

    RE: Jake @ 79

    Jake, let me take the other side of the argument from you. I think a recession is coming but not in the next two years. And so I am pretty fully invested. I bought the assets well and have some real room in their P&Ls. I have enough cash that the banks can’t pull out the rug from under me. In other words, I am being cautious, but fully putting my money where my mouth is.

    If you are up 40% on your investment –mazel tov. Just don’t take out a line of credit to pay for your kid’s education or to buy a new car or even to completely remodel the place beyond what the market would pay you back for. The CD and South Seattle have been a great place to invest and will probably continue to appreciate at a faster percentage rate than most other areas.

    When you are in a real estate recession, it feels pretty awful since the volume of sales drops off so precipitously. Listings go from selling in a week to sitting for a month. But after you have been through it, you recognize that prices went mostly sideways and maybe just a little bit down. The only folks who lost out are those who had to sell during that time.

  84. 84
    ess says:

    By Lars @ 76:

    RE: ess @ 12

    We lived in Tucson for a time and really enjoyed it – the food, the sky, the people, and yes, no traffic.

    What to look out for – In the time we lived there for work (less than 2 yrs), my bosses dog got bit by a rattlesnake despite having a heavy duty fence to prevent such things; A Trantula the size of my hand would greet me every night during the hottest months at my door, trying to sneak in as soon as I opened it for the air conditioning – it was so large then when I screamed at it, he ran away looking more like a small animal than a spider, only to greet me again the next day; Scorpions will find their way into the house despite keeping your drains closed and tight mesh over every vent; Sewer Roaches – we lived n a nice, clean part of town, in a condo that was well maintained. I heard a bout this but was shocked to witness…one night an enormous roach flew out of our bathtub drain that we had left open…and later, the cats had got him. His underside looked like a crab. Then at night, during summer, Javalenas will cry a haunting sound for hours every night. Tucson is beautiful, still small, and relatively cheap. Winters are great. Just know that there are serious critters to deal with all around you and be careful. If you, or anyone in your family has the ick factor for critters, this is should be a serious consideration as it’s a challenge residents must live with.

    Thanks for the heads up. I lived there one summer and went to summer school at the U of A before I got married. Plus we have explored the area extensively when we took a year plus off from work.

    We have heard about the scorpions being a problem – especially the little ones. Apparently they are worse than the big scorpions and the tarantulas.

    When we went down there, after we went to some open houses we did some hiking in some of the parks – didn’t observe critters although my wife said I almost missed stepping on a snake. I remember we went through that when we were traveling around the country 25 years ago – I almost stepped on a snake at that time also.

    The two primary reasons for us to move are lower housing costs (both tying up capital as well as taxes), and traffic. At this point – I don’t even venture south if I have to go through Seattle – unless it is early in the morning or late at night. And the war against cars on all fronts – it is going to be more expensive to both drive on the roads and leave one’s car anywhere. Not that Seattle is so great to visit – with all the construction and the urban campers everywhere.

    Phoenix was just too big for me, and they have monumental traffic jams during rush hour. Tucson, and south of there seems just right – even with a growth spurt it won’t get too big. We are thinking of one of the retirement villages or smaller towns within hailing distance of Tucson.

    Saw some sleeping Javelinas at the Tucson Botanical Gardens. We talked our way into the members only plant sale, and my wife was surprised to see so many plants that could make it in that environment. That and the butterfly garden sort of convinced her that the place wasn’t the end of the world.

  85. 85

    By pfft @ 78:

    Pro-tip for Monday. Don’t think, know. . . ..

    LOL, thank you for admitting you don’t think. You just think you know because a particular party told you something. That explains you to a tee.

  86. 86
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 85:

    By pfft @ 78:

    Pro-tip for Monday. Don’t think, know. . . ..

    LOL, thank you for admitting you don’t think. You just think you know because a particular party told you something. That explains you to a tee.

    Absolutely not! I post actual evidence from reporters and studies. Have I ever posted anything whose sole source was a political party or entity? No. Thanks.

  87. 87

    RE: pfft @ 86 – Ahhhh, just in the last thread you were going off about what a great President Hillary would have been. And while yes, you did get that from reporters, you also got that from the Democrats. That Hillary was inevitable and how great she was, that’s something reporters had been telling you for six or seven years because they were feeding you Democratic party propoganda. You believed it, and you still don’t understand what a lousy candidate Hillary was. You’ve been hopelessly brainwashed.

    Reading a press report and believing it is not thinking. Reporters are by and large idiots who don’t have a clue about the topics they report on. There are exceptions, but they are relatively rare. You should be skeptical every time you read every article from every source.

  88. 88
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 87:

    RE: pfft @ 86 – Ahhhh, just in the last thread you were going off about what a great President Hillary would have been. And while yes, you did get that from reporters, you also got that from the Democrats. That Hillary was inevitable and how great she was, that’s something reporters had been telling you for six or seven years because they were feeding you Democratic party propoganda. You believed it, and you still don’t understand what a lousy candidate Hillary was. You’ve been hopelessly brainwashed.

    Reading a press report and believing it is not thinking. Reporters are by and large idiots who don’t have a clue about the topics they report on. There are exceptions, but they are relatively rare. You should be skeptical every time you read every article from every source.

    reporters did not tell me Hillary would be a great president. I figured that out on my own. The only thing that reporters told me about Hillary was here e-mails. Andrea Mitchell admitted they went easier on Trump on policy because they didn’t think he’d be president.

    “You should be skeptical every time you read every article from every source.”

    thanks for the tip! where would I be w/o your wisdom?

  89. 89

    RE: pfft @ 88 – You’re the one spouting wisdom you don’t have. Don’t think, know. LOL.

    But yes, reporters did tell you about Hillary. That you claim otherwise is telling. Part of being brainwashed is not realizing you were brainwashed.

  90. 90

    See very honestly this time is for the investment-friendly time because all downfall time has gone maybe last time going on now price will catch their speed and again make a bobble in the real estate market.

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