Case-Shiller: Seattle home prices rising fastest in the nation

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to February data that was released this morning, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 1.7 percent January to February
Up 12.7 percent year-over-year.
Up 23.9 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 1.8 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 12.1 percent.

Seattle leads the nation in both year-over-year and month-over-month home price growth. The only other metro areas with double-digit price growth from a year earlier are Las Vegas at 11.6 percent and San Francisco at 10.1 percent.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes fell off steeply late last year but jumped back to #1 in February.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Seattle’s year-over-year price growth is still the highest in the nation. The streak has been alive for eighteen months.

Ten metro areas hit new all-time highs in February: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Portland, Dallas, and Seattle. February marks the first time that Los Angeles and San Diego have passed their 2005/2006 high points.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through February.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the 127 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 23.9 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Here’s the story on this month’s numbers from the Seattle Times: Seattle-area home price growth from current boom has surpassed last decade’s bubble

Check back tomorrow for our look at Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-04-24)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

1,421 comments:

  1. 1251

    By N @ 1243:

    @ Kary 1234 — In this environment you are right about flips and valuation increases, however there have been times where appraisals were much more stringent about these type of increases absent an increase in square feet, additional beds/baths.

    This is something I don’t keep in my head, and instead just ask the lender for current information for the type of loan our buyer will be getting, but they can still pay attention.

    I don’t remember the specifics, but if a property sold within 120 days of a new contract (not the second closing date, meaning the buyer and flipper could avoid the rule by waiting 121 days) the lender may for some types of loans ask for receipts for improvements to the property to justify the change in price.

  2. 1252

    By Deerhawke @ 1240:

    That evening we were at a party where all of the people are politically to the left of me. I mentioned the line to sign the petition and said I thought it was quite telling. All the people there were against the head tax and there was a discussion about if you can sign the petiton online.

    First, I have to roll my eyes when anyone things anything real happens with an on-line petition. WTF could they possibly be thinking?

    Second, even on the unruly Internet I’ve seen almost no support for that tax, and most of the ones that do are just people who hate Amazon for some reason. The Seattle City Council seems to be way out on a limb on that one.

  3. 1253
    pfft says:

    If I were in the market to get an electric car I would get a used tesla. just search and you can find one for 40 or 50 grand. Save yourself up to $4000 a year times 7 years…

  4. 1254
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 1185

    Dear reader: Commenter “whatsmyname” demands that I produce better and more reliable numbers than the OFM population estimates, or else my well-founded and well-referenced exposition of the fallacy (that is, overestimation) of the OFM population estimates somehow is not appropriate. Apparently, it does not even help that OFM itself agrees with me, and that OFM is indeed the main source of the description of the severe limitations of their estimation methods, which in non-census years may be described as “if-it-is-built-it-is-filled”.

    You can all be the judge as to whether whatsmyname is being reasonable here. Which of the following is the reasonable alternative:

    1. I must accept the highly doubtful if-it-is-built-it-is-filled methodology, unless I can personally produce more accurate numbers than OFM. Perhaps I should conduct a full census on my own.

    2. I need not accept the OFM overestimation, and it is ok to point out the fallacies of the OFM numbers, including using references to my previous writings on the topic, so as to save work, and also to give the reader an indication that OFM numbers are repeatedly being misused by bubble propagandists.

    I find it not worth the trouble to have a “discussion” with whatsmyname. In the face of rampant dishonesty and trolling, better to use one’s energy to expose fallacies and propaganda for what it is.

  5. 1255
    N says:

    Single-family home rents leveling off — and that could be good for buyers, too

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/relief-for-seattle-area-single-family-home-rents-and-a-glimmer-of-hope-for-buyers/

    Even more dramatic, the Seattle area had the second-smallest rent increase in the country for single-family homes among the 20 major metro areas covered in the CoreLogic report (behind only Honolulu, where rents actually dipped a bit).

    Purchase said in the last few years her firm could automatically raise rents about 10 percent when a new tenant came in – now they’re cutting rents 5 to 10 percent just to get enough applicants, and even still, it’s taking about two weeks longer to rent the typical house than it used to.

    “I expect it to be tough (to raise rents) as long as they continue to build 11,000 (apartment) units a year here,” Purchase said. Based on construction underway now, that brisk pace of development is set to continue at least through this year, and likely next.

    One wild card to watch out for is whether landlords cash out and sell their houses now to take advantage of the for-sale market, which continues to be as hot as ever – particularly now that home rentals aren’t offering the same returns.

    Purchase said last spring about 5 to 10 of her clients sold their rental houses, while this spring it’s tripled to about 25 to 30.

    he difference looks small but adds up: About 30,000 single-family homes across the region were converted from for-sale to rentals during the housing bust. In all, about 145,000 houses in the Seattle metro area are now rented out.

    There are only about 4,300 houses on the market right now in the metro area, so even if a fraction of those rentals went up for sale now, it could make a difference.

  6. 1256
    pfft says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1240:

    First, I wonder if anyone has put in a missing person’s report on Tim. 1200+ posts on the same thread and no sign of him? Did he get a promotion? Have another kid? Move out of Seattle?

    Second, this past weekend there were people on the Greenlake trail with petitions for the initiative to repeal the head tax . There is always a petition of some sort there and most people usually just ignore the signature gatherers and walk on. Not this time. No kidding, there was an actual line to sign the petition. People were calling their friends over to get them to sign also. It was really an event.

    Given the left-of-center politics of the neighborhood, this is definitely not what I would have expected.

    That evening we were at a party where all of the people are politically to the left of me. I mentioned the line to sign the petition and said I thought it was quite telling. All the people there were against the head tax and there was a discussion about if you can sign the petiton online.

    I believe this petition is going to end up on the fall ballot. And I think it will pass. The only real question is whether the damage to Seattle’s business ecosystem has been done.

    so you want the money to help the homeless situation to come out of your pockets?

    maybe an income tax?

  7. 1257
    QA Observer says:

    Comment 1,250

  8. 1258
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By softwarengineer @ 1238:

    The Seattle Areas’ Biggest Employer Now Has Robot Replacements for Employees

    Service jobs at burger flipper joints:

    http://www.fox5ny.com/news/robot-chef-cooks-300-burgers-a-day#/

    Hades, even giving ’em $25/hr won’t stop the robots….it will speed robots up.

    Anyone with even a week’s worth of Econ 101 could have predicted this would happen. As could anyone who has ever had to meet a payroll. It’s simple. Business owners have 2 options…hire a humn or buy a machine. When it’s cheaper to hire humans, they hire humans. When it’s cheaper to buy a machine, they buy a machine. At $8/hr burger flippers are cheaper. At $15/hr machines are cheaper. Plus as an added bonus machines never call in sick, don’t spit in customers’ food and don’t steal.

    It’s so simple a caveman understands it, but no Democrat seems to understand it.

  9. 1259
    SDE2 says:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1251

    That’s because machines cannot vote, but humans can vote them in or out

  10. 1260

    By Bubble Trouble @ 1251:

    Plus as an added bonus machines never call in sick, don’t spit in customers’ food and don’t steal.

    Google Rm9sbG93ZXJz (Also the Lost Art of Forehead Sweat was good that same season.)

  11. 1261
    pfft says:

    By Bubble Trouble @ 1251:

    By softwarengineer @ 1238:

    The Seattle Areas’ Biggest Employer Now Has Robot Replacements for Employees

    Service jobs at burger flipper joints:

    http://www.fox5ny.com/news/robot-chef-cooks-300-burgers-a-day#/

    Hades, even giving ’em $25/hr won’t stop the robots….it will speed robots up.

    Anyone with even a week’s worth of Econ 101 could have predicted this would happen. As could anyone who has ever had to meet a payroll. It’s simple. Business owners have 2 options…hire a humn or buy a machine. When it’s cheaper to hire humans, they hire humans. When it’s cheaper to buy a machine, they buy a machine. At $8/hr burger flippers are cheaper. At $15/hr machines are cheaper. Plus as an added bonus machines never call in sick, don’t spit in customers’ food and don’t steal.

    It’s so simple a caveman understands it, but no Democrat seems to understand it.

    and dozens of studies have shown that a higher minimum wage does not lead to job loses. what about that don’t you understand?

    “Plus as an added bonus machines never call in sick, don’t spit in customers’ food and don’t steal.”

    machines never break down? what happens if the power goes out?

  12. 1262
    Bubble Trouble says:

    RE: pfft @ 1253

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/06/26/new-study-casts-doubt-on-whether-a-15-minimum-wage-really-helps-workers/?utm_term=.ac2826772e11

    “The city is gradually increasing the hourly minimum to $15 over several years. Already, though, some employers have not been able to afford the increased minimums. They’ve cut their payrolls, putting off new hiring, reducing hours or letting their workers go, the study found.

    The costs to low-wage workers in Seattle outweighed the benefits by a ratio of three to one, according to the study, conducted by a group of economists at the University of Washington who were commissioned by the city. The study, published as a working paper Monday by the National Bureau of Economic Research, has not yet been peer reviewed.

    On the whole, the study estimates, the average low-wage worker in the city lost $125 a month because of the hike in the minimum.”

    You were saying…..

  13. 1263
    Bubble Trouble says:

    “Rather than improving the lives of California’s working class, escalating minimum wages hurt those that minimum-wage advocates swear they will help. This is the unsurprising finding of a new study which determined “that past minimum wage increases in California have caused a measurable decrease in employment among affected employees.”

    The study was compiled for the Employment Policies Institute by economists David Macpherson of Trinity University and William Even of Miami University to “measure the empirical effects of minimum wage increases in California from 1990 to the present, and estimate the impact of California’s current minimum wage law.”

    “Specifically, they find that each 10 percent increase in the minimum wage has led to a nearly 5 percent reduction in employment in industries with a higher percentage of lower-paid employees. Across all industries, their findings imply that each 10 percent increase in California’s minimum wage has reduced employment for affected employees by 2 percent.”

    https://www.pacificresearch.org/new-studies-confirm-the-obvious-15-minimum-wage-hurts-california-job-opportunities/

  14. 1264
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By pfft @ 1253:

    By Bubble Trouble @ 1251:

    By softwarengineer @ 1238:

    The Seattle Areas’ Biggest Employer Now Has Robot Replacements for Employees

    Service jobs at burger flipper joints:

    http://www.fox5ny.com/news/robot-chef-cooks-300-burgers-a-day#/

    Hades, even giving ’em $25/hr won’t stop the robots….it will speed robots up.

    Anyone with even a week’s worth of Econ 101 could have predicted this would happen. As could anyone who has ever had to meet a payroll. It’s simple. Business owners have 2 options…hire a humn or buy a machine. When it’s cheaper to hire humans, they hire humans. When it’s cheaper to buy a machine, they buy a machine. At $8/hr burger flippers are cheaper. At $15/hr machines are cheaper. Plus as an added bonus machines never call in sick, don’t spit in customers’ food and don’t steal.

    It’s so simple a caveman understands it, but no Democrat seems to understand it.

    and dozens of studies have shown that a higher minimum wage does not lead to job loses. what about that don’t you understand?

    “Plus as an added bonus machines never call in sick, don’t spit in customers’ food and don’t steal.”

    machines never break down? what happens if the power goes out?

    LOL. That’s the argument you have? What if the power goes out? Gee I dunno…you turn on the generator? I can tell you’ve never run a lemonade stand let alone an actual business. I’d bet if I offered you $1000 you couldn’t change a tire. AmIrite?

  15. 1265
    pfft says:

    By Bubble Trouble @ 1254:

    RE: pfft @ 1253

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/06/26/new-study-casts-doubt-on-whether-a-15-minimum-wage-really-helps-workers/?utm_term=.ac2826772e11

    “The city is gradually increasing the hourly minimum to $15 over several years. Already, though, some employers have not been able to afford the increased minimums. They’ve cut their payrolls, putting off new hiring, reducing hours or letting their workers go, the study found.

    The costs to low-wage workers in Seattle outweighed the benefits by a ratio of three to one, according to the study, conducted by a group of economists at the University of Washington who were commissioned by the city. The study, published as a working paper Monday by the National Bureau of Economic Research, has not yet been peer reviewed.

    On the whole, the study estimates, the average low-wage worker in the city lost $125 a month because of the hike in the minimum.”

    You were saying…..

    we talked about this a few weeks ago. that study was not reliable.

    not peer-reviewed(a total deal breaker alone)

    non-public data

    outlier results.

  16. 1266
    greg says:

    By Bubble Trouble @ 1251:

    By softwarengineer @ 1238:

    The Seattle Areas’ Biggest Employer Now Has Robot Replacements for Employees

    Service jobs at burger flipper joints:

    http://www.fox5ny.com/news/robot-chef-cooks-300-burgers-a-day#/

    Hades, even giving ’em $25/hr won’t stop the robots….it will speed robots up.

    Anyone with even a week’s worth of Econ 101 could have predicted this would happen. As could anyone who has ever had to meet a payroll. It’s simple. Business owners have 2 options…hire a humn or buy a machine. When it’s cheaper to hire humans, they hire humans. When it’s cheaper to buy a machine, they buy a machine. At $8/hr burger flippers are cheaper. At $15/hr machines are cheaper. Plus as an added bonus machines never call in sick, don’t spit in customers’ food and don’t steal.

    It’s so simple a caveman understands it, but no Democrat seems to understand it.

    What we really have here is just another dumb poster who thinks democrat means anti biz.

    Suck it up Bubblecup, Dem states are tech states dems love pulling the future forward. Why? well education exposes people to new possibilities.

    Big hint, look at what you guys actually call yourselves…. “conservatives”…

  17. 1267
    Erik says:

    RE: greg @ 1257
    I went to Trader Joe’s yesterday in West Seattle. I bought 20 cans of coconut milk and signed a petition to remove the head tax. The only reason I signed it was so real estate prices would keep going up. To me it was basically a petition to keep the Seattle real estate mania going. I did my part.

  18. 1268
    sfrz says:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1254 – maximize the profits, socialize the losses. Min. wage workers depend on the government to subsidize their healthcare, food, housing. So, it’s the welfare kings at the TOP that benefit. Conservatives and corporations have much more money to buy the analysts. The tired old argument of wage increases needs to be replaced with liveable full employment system. Wages began to flatline in the 70s, while corporate profits skyrocketed. Corporations had more money at the top to buy politicians and create new laws, while the middle class declined and is still struggling to maintain the “middle class” label.

  19. 1269
    sfrz says:

    Oh no! We may have a contagion. Power to the People! “The victory our movement has won in Seattle has the potential to spread around the country, and in fact it has already begun to do so. A discussion of a “Google Tax” and taxes on Big Tech is taking off in California, including San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Mountain View, Cupertino and East Palo Alto. Meanwhile, corporate media and political establishments around the country are trying to get out ahead and proactively discourage any such developments in their cities.” https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/05/29/amazon-tax-passes-in-seattle-and-the-billionaire-class-fights-back/

  20. 1270
    sfrz says:

    The Welfare Queen sitting in South Lake Union: “since 2000 Amazon has received $1.115 billion in 129 communities in the U.S., rocketing past the previous leader in this category: Walmart.” https://newrepublic.com/article/146540/amazon-thriving-thanks-taxpayer-dollars

  21. 1271
    sfrz says:

    Bezos has no love for and no commitment to Seattle. We have 1 bedrm/, studio hives built around the machine. “Amazon initially built its business empire by exploiting a loophole that exempted it from collecting sales tax. As states began closing this loophole, Amazon switched tactics and focused instead on winning subsidies at the local level. When the New York Times investigated corporate incentives in 2012, Amazon had received $348 million from states and localities. By October 2017, when Business Journals released its findings, that number had more than tripled to $1.2 billion.” https://newfoodeconomy.org/amazon-snap-employees-five-states/

  22. 1272
    David says:

    RE: sfrz @ 1262 – The Head Tax is a tax on individual jobs. This is a bad idea all around. Obviously Bezos’ business strategies work because he is kind of rich.

    Even though Walmart gets a lot of employees who use welfare services, what would those people be doing if not working at Walmart? Anything different that would wean them from those welfare services?

    Take a trip to Walmart – America’s lower working classes could not survive without being able to shop at Walmart. Amazon is not essential to this country’s survival – Walmart is.

    Therefore Amazon MUST focus on costs and competitiveness. Accessing Amazon’s services has HUGE barriers to entry to overcome.

    To shop at Amazon you need:

    1) a COMPUTER (~$250-$1,200)
    2) High speed Internet service (~$600 annually MINIMUM)
    3) Credit card

    To shop at Walmart you need two feet and some cash.

  23. 1273
    sfrz says:

    RE: David @ 1263 – Way more to Amazon than shopping. Walmart uses bait and switch. The aisle front display may show discounts, but through the aisles, items can cost more than a grocery store. Walmart employees cannot even afford to shop there. That’s how ruthless that company is. Disgusting. Amazon, on the other hand, is harvesting EVERYTHING. They are a monopoly that would make the Guilded Age capitalist Robber Barons salivate with envy.
    “Professor Galloway writes in a 2017 op-ed for The Wall Street Journal.

    “After spending most of the past decade researching these companies, I’ve come to the conclusion that our fears are misplaced in focusing on what I call the Four. We should instead be worrying about the One: one firm that will come to dominate search, hardware and cloud computing, that will control a vast network of far-flung businesses, that can ravage entire sectors of the economy simply by announcing its interest in them. That firm is Amazon.”” https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-takes-over-the-world-1506104228

  24. 1274

    By sfrz @ 1259:

    Wages began to flatline in the 70s, while corporate profits skyrocketed.

    I don’t think it had that much to do with politicians. Part of that is because of increased automation and technology reduced the demand for employees. And part of it was just increased population growth from various means resulting in more supply of employees. Part of that is also because workers were somehow convinced that unions were bad for them. Probably entities like those pfft uses for minimum wage studies were paid to do studies that said having more power somehow didn’t result in higher wages. Less demand for labor, more supply and less bargaining position does not lead to higher wages–those lead to lower wages.

    Then there’s also the improved transportation systems, which resulted in a global market, again increasing the supply of labor dramatically. That was the result of politicians.

    And finally, let’s not forget our second-rate education system, where the average person is ignorant beyond belief.

    None of these things lead to higher wages, collectively they all lead to lower wages in real terms (adjusting for inflation). And that’s exactly what happened.

  25. 1275

    By sfrz @ 1262:

    “Amazon initially built its business empire by exploiting a loophole that exempted it from collecting sales tax. As states began closing this loophole, Amazon switched tactics and focused instead on winning subsidies at the local level. When the New York Times investigated corporate incentives in 2012, Amazon had received $348 million from states and localities. By October 2017, when Business Journals released its findings, that number had more than tripled to $1.2 billion.” https://newfoodeconomy.org/amazon-snap-employees-five-states/

    Wow, that source is almost pfft/greg bad.

    As discussed before, it wasn’t loopholes that allowed Amazon to not pay sales tax, it was the well accepted rule of law that companies without a presence cannot be taxed by a state. And it wasn’t the state closing the loopholes that changed that, it was Amazon expanding to more and more states. Too bad your source either: (1) Didn’t understand that; or (2) Did understand but instead decided to publish anti-Amazon propaganda. I suspect the latter, which calls the entire article into question.

    Also, considering SNAP benefits paid to employees as being subsidies for Amazon is almost as bad as that nonsense study claiming that Washington state has a regressive tax system because they allocated taxes not paid by poor people to them.

    As to these SNAP benefits, it’s not like the Amazon employees were working at higher paying jobs and then moved to Amazon to make less, then qualifying for SNAP payments. Alsmost all undoubtedly qualified for SNAP beforehand, if not more government benefits, and then still qualified after starting work at Amazon. That their pay wasn’t high enough to get them disqualified only means the labor market in that area didn’t support higher wages., but without Amazon there the employment market would have been worse.

  26. 1276
    sfrz says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1265 – Prior to the 70s, capital surplus steadily rose and was distributed effectively to enhance corporate growth. Their surpluses paid for technology, infrastructure, public education for the labor forces. Wages created consumers for the corporate products. In the 70s, technological changes increased productivity and labor, but real wages stagnated. Workers no longer shared the productivity. This caused an explosion of capitalist surplus. With that huge amount of cash, the corporations were able to buy/sway new legislation to further enrich themselves. This has been the biggest money grab by the 1% since the Gilded Age. Workers keep borrowing more and more, becoming indebted trying to keep up the American dream, as they fall further and further behind. With each boom, the bust becomes greater. This next one will be a doozy.

  27. 1277

    By sfrz @ 1267:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1265 – Prior to the 70s, capital surplus steadily rose and was distributed effectively to enhance corporate growth. Their surpluses paid for technology, infrastructure, public education for the labor forces.

    I’m not sure what period you’re talking about, but it was pretty short. It’s not like the US has a long history of working people doing well. And whatever the period was, it wasn’t anything prior to 1946.

    Yes the wealthy have done well, but they did well before too. Perhaps that there’s more of that now is due to the fact that there are more areas to make money. It isn’t just railroads and oil now. Many of the wealthiest people became so in industries that didn’t even exist prior to 1946, but those industries that did exist many of them still do (e.g. oil, transportation, etc.).

    If you do want to go back as far as 1946 another thing increasing the supply of labor is more women in the workforce. That increase in supply also held down wages (even ignoring the fact that women tend to be paid less), but it also increased household income, which in turn made some things (e.g. houses) more expensive due to increased demand.

    More than anything though my point would be that working people in whatever period you’re talking about didn’t do well because anyone was forced to pay them more money. The economics were such that what they were paid was what the market demanded. Despite the recovery since “The Great Recession” our economy is still not that strong. Labor is not a highly valued commodity for the reasons mentioned in my earlier post. And clamping down on business isn’t going to improve that. It will make it worse.

  28. 1278
    sfrz says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1266 – You are missing the point. Scamazon is getting rich on both ends. We are financing their wealth. “The American people are financing Amazon’s pursuit of an e-commerce monopoly every step of the way: first, with tax breaks, subsidies, and infrastructure improvements meant to lure fulfillment centers into town, and later with federal transfers to pay for warehouse workers’ food. And soon, when the company begins accepting SNAP dollars to purchase its goods, a third transfer of public wealth to private hands will become a part of the company’s business model. ” https://theintercept.com/2018/04/19/amazon-snap-subsidies-warehousing-wages/

  29. 1279
    David says:

    RE: sfrz @ 1264 – Walmart is NOT more expensive in the aisles. You need to shop there. It is uniformly priced well.

  30. 1280
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Amazon’s Antitrust Paradox

    https://www.yalelawjournal.org/note/amazons-antitrust-paradox

    “In particular, current law underappreciates the risk of predatory pricing and how integration across distinct business lines may prove anticompetitive. These concerns are heightened in the context of online platforms for two reasons. First, the economics of platform markets incentivize the pursuit of growth over profits, a strategy that investors have rewarded. Under these conditions predatory pricing becomes highly rational—even as existing doctrine treats it as irrational. Second, because online platforms serve as critical intermediaries, integrating across business lines positions these platforms to control the essential infrastructure on which their rivals depend. This dual role also enables a platform to exploit information collected on companies using its services to undermine them as competitors.”

  31. 1281
    Justme says:

    The main problem with the employee head tax is that it is ultra-regressive. That is, it is a fixed sum per employee, and does not depend on wages paid or anything else.

    Much more sane would be a flat percentage of each workers total pay, or even a progressive percentage of each worker’s pay. That way it would make wealthier corporations with higher wages pay more.

    On the other hand, one might argue that having a flat per-head tax would encourage fast-food and other minimum-wage employers to upgrade more employees to full-time status so as to minimize the number of per-head taxes to pay. That might also increase the number of workers with paid health insurance, possibly. What about the laid-ff former part-time workers? Well, maybe the now full-time workers would now have enough money to spend that these unemployed now would also be able to find work — a virtuous circle of sorts,

    Overall it seems that a progressive wage tax would be better. No doubt Kary will soon tell us why that is against the state constitution ;-).

  32. 1282
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Burien, come for the airport noise, stay for prostitutes.
    Shoreline, come for the ???, stay because traffic is fucked.
    Bellevue, come for the math camps, stay because you want your kids to hate you.
    North bend, come for the hick vs h1b death match at the factory outlets, stay because you can’t move any further.
    Seattle, come for bezos balls, stay for the chance that a bezos micro penis is erected next to the balls.

  33. 1283
    pedaltothemetal says:

    It’s still Day 1 for Amazon and still Day 1 for Seattle!

    On day 1, you don’t get sidewalks.
    On day 1, you don’t get decent streets.
    On day 1, you don’t get infrastructure.
    On day 1, you get bezos on your feet and exactly 3 bezos balls.
    On day 1, you get fired as a bezos ball cleaner. You didn’t show enough passion for the customer, in this case bezos balls.

  34. 1284
    David says:

    If you are worried about welfare, get busy removing illegal aliens. 86% of them with kids use welfare programs of some sort or another. Even legal immigrants have a 50% use rate for welfare programs.

  35. 1285
    sfrz says:

    RE: David @ 1275 – That is total BS. The biggest welfare queens aren’t the poor. It’s the MIC, Pentagon, and the big corps parking their money overseas. The Pentagon cannot account for $21 trillion. What entity is allowed to operate like that? They STOLE our money. All of us. They played football with wads of $100 bills in Iraq while unloading planes of cash. It’s free money for defense contractors. That’s why DC has exploded with millionaires.

  36. 1286
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By David @ 1263:

    RE: sfrz @ 1262 – The Head Tax is a tax on individual jobs. This is a bad idea all around. Obviously Bezos’ business strategies work because he is kind of rich.

    Even though Walmart gets a lot of employees who use welfare services, what would those people be doing if not working at Walmart? Anything different that would wean them from those welfare services?

    Take a trip to Walmart – America’s lower working classes could not survive without being able to shop at Walmart. Amazon is not essential to this country’s survival – Walmart is.

    Therefore Amazon MUST focus on costs and competitiveness. Accessing Amazon’s services has HUGE barriers to entry to overcome.

    To shop at Amazon you need:

    1) a COMPUTER (~$250-$1,200)
    2) High speed Internet service (~$600 annually MINIMUM)
    3) Credit card

    To shop at Walmart you need two feet and some cash.

    Not really. WalMart is the very definition of middle class. I shop at WM all the time myself. I bought weed and feed there over the weekend for about 20% less than it costs at Home Depot. Exact same product, 20% cheaper. You’d have to be a fool to spend the extra money elsewhere. And despite what the myth is, WM has changed its product offering radically. Lots of organic food options, Starbucks coffee, etc. Today’s WM isn’t what it was in the 80s.

    “According to the data, the average Walmart shopper is a white, 51-year-old female with an annual household income of $56,482.” This is from 2016 using 2015 data. In 2015 the median HH income in the US was also $56,500.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-shopper-demographics-2016-10

  37. 1287
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By sfrz @ 1269:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1266 – You are missing the point. Scamazon is getting rich on both ends. We are financing their wealth. “The American people are financing Amazon’s pursuit of an e-commerce monopoly every step of the way: first, with tax breaks, subsidies, and infrastructure improvements meant to lure fulfillment centers into town, and later with federal transfers to pay for warehouse workers’ food. And soon, when the company begins accepting SNAP dollars to purchase its goods, a third transfer of public wealth to private hands will become a part of the company’s business model. ” https://theintercept.com/2018/04/19/amazon-snap-subsidies-warehousing-wages/

    Give me a break dude. Every gas station has a sign on the front door that says WE ACCEPT EBT. So it’s OK for welfare to be used at the local Exxon to buy cheetos, but somehow Amazon is evil for accepting SNAP to deliver groceries? I swear some people just need to complain about something every day, no matter how absurd.

  38. 1288

    By sfrz @ 1269:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1266 – You are missing the point. Scamazon is getting rich on both ends. We are financing their wealth. “The American people are financing Amazon’s pursuit of an e-commerce monopoly every step of the way: first, with tax breaks, subsidies, and infrastructure improvements meant to lure fulfillment centers into town, and later with federal transfers to pay for warehouse workers’ food. And soon, when the company begins accepting SNAP dollars to purchase its goods, a third transfer of public wealth to private hands will become a part of the company’s business model. ” https://theintercept.com/2018/04/19/amazon-snap-subsidies-warehousing-wages/

    I didn’t miss that point, I think that point is pointless. Are employees of companies that sell groceries supposed to be exempt from getting food stamps? Are employers of people who receive food stamps going to be prohibited from selling to people using food stamps? The answer to both questions is rather obviously no, unless your goal is to have people receiving food stamps become unemployable.

    As to governments giving subsidies for business moving in, they do that because unlike the Seattle City Council, they understand the importance of increased economic activity. Sure some of it can be minimally beneficial, such as sport stadiums, but for the most part it helps provide more people more jobs, and that is generally a good thing. People running those governments understand that.

  39. 1289

    By Justme @ 1272:

    On the other hand, one might argue that having a flat per-head tax would encourage fast-food and other minimum-wage employers to upgrade more employees to full-time status so as to minimize the number of per-head taxes to pay. That might also increase the number of workers with paid health insurance, possibly.

    . . .
    Overall it seems that a progressive wage tax would be better. No doubt Kary will soon tell us why that is against the state constitution ;-).

    That it would increase the number of people with health insurance is exactly why that won’t create more people with full time jobs. The head tax is less per year than the cost per month of an employer having to provide health insurance.

    I don’t get the dig on the state constitution point. Income taxes are seemingly the only issue where the state constitution comes into play, and that position is well founded on existing court decisions. Other issues about local government taxation are largely governed by statute.

  40. 1290

    Here’s a new startup that sounds both interesting and risky, but the main issue I have with it is it’s a service that is only necessary in extreme seller markets.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-real-estate-startup-which-aims-to-make-everyone-a-cash-buyer-raises-17-million/

    Basically they provide bridge financing to a buyer so that their offer can be effectively the same as cash to a seller. It’s basically what flippers do when they come in with a hard money loan–sure there’s a loan, but it’s not connected at all to the condition of the property and can fund quickly. They seemingly get funded in part by charging a buyer’s agent commission, but the article doesn’t say who pays that. I would guess the seller.

    I’d like to know more details, but again the main issue is it seems to work only in strong seller’s markets.

  41. 1291

    And here’s an article on how some cities are basically limiting the supply of houses by imposing building moratoriums.

    https://crosscut.com/2018/05/slow-growth-some-washington-cities-halt-development

    Some of it seems entirely legitimate, such as Granite Falls running out of sewer capacity. The Issaquah one seemed rather frivolous–“Oh no! Apartments are being built, and we don’t like them or the color they are painted!”

    But beyond the moratorium there were other things, such as Federal Way charging $20,000 per unit for schools. That presumably is on top of sewer connection charges and other fees. Those things add up and result in fewer housing units being built, which in turn results in higher prices for housing.

  42. 1292
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1282 – The school impact fees are important to help mitigate areas with rapid growth to allow schools to build new schools or increase the capacity of existing schools for the influx of new students. These fees are actually very difficult for the school districts to get from the counties.

    My concern is the developers aren’t being charged these impact fees at all or perhaps not enough and the supporting infrastructure that is needed to support all of this rapid development is just not going to get built. We see this most obviously with the lack of roads being built. Roads staying two lane roads when they really should be being expanded and sidewalks being put in and no plans to expand them. No new fire houses being put in, although there is a rapid increase in density. Etc etc…

    http://mrsc.org/Home/Stay-Informed/MRSC-Insight/January-2018/The-Ins-and-Outs-of-School-Impact-Fees.aspx

  43. 1293

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1251
    The Open Border Party Hates Truth Planning

    They’d rather we didn’t know as the Open Border Party opens our borders to unnecessary foreign overpopulation invasions and even Seattle area court controls have been tainted IMO. Yes , its so simple a 3rd grader can comprehend.

    Soooo…what’s a new news truth milestone planning we can profit off [or keep from losing money] in planning our real estate investing in Seattle? Saving Rates came up in the neutral politics news [the news I prefer BTW] today, but its still truth news and HORRIFYING IMO:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-31/savings-rate-tumbles-back-near-record-lows-americans-spend-more-they-make-28th

    Good gosh, we’re making more money and spending much more than that lately….savings rates down irrespective of income rise. IMO the possible reasons are putting off home maintenance bills and deciding its now time to bite the bullet, buying a new car after the safety recalls ignore past computer/module, severe oil burning and shaky transmission defects warranties never cover anyway….the poor get stuck with the “time bomb” trade-ins the rich elite lied about and traded in anyway [because they feared the safety recall was really needed]….we’re sure not spending it at the half empty sports stadiums anymore or buying Seahawk clothes….meanwhile, we’re not selling our homes. We’ve lost the will and direction to manage money and invest properly? I pray not.

  44. 1294

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1277
    The Toothless Smiles of Some Walmart Employees Horrify Me

    Its a definite sign of economic hardships…but I hear WM employees have a health care plan….no one in America really has or had affordable dental insurance ever….but we managed to fill cavities and replace missing teeth somehow anyway….the somehow anyway part of our family budget is already spent, especially for low wage working poor?

  45. 1295

    By Suburban Mom @ 1283:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1282 – The school impact fees are important to help mitigate areas with rapid growth to allow schools to build new schools or increase the capacity of existing schools for the influx of new students. These fees are actually very difficult for the school districts to get from the counties.

    Agree that schools need to be built–other infrastructure too. The REET helps pay for some of that (but not schools). My point was though that does reduce supply, which increases housing costs.

    All too often government just picks a course of action without thinking about the secondary effects. Take my favorite dysfunctional government, Seattle (please!).

    They are trying to deal with homelessness, housing costs and low wages, but despite that:

    1. They are a sanctuary city, which has an upward impact on housing prices (increased demand) and reduces wages (increased supply).
    2. They pass minimum wage legislation which helps some workers, but causes less qualified workers to lose out to better-qualified workers–many of which probably become homeless.
    3. They restrict enforcement of camping laws even though the campers create severe environmental and health risks (both for the homeless and the community) that wouldn’t be accepted for a minute if ordinary citizens tried it. (Much of this could be mitigated by providing porta-potties and dumpsters–but the city would rather have employees risk their health cleaning up messes afterward.)

    So they have three things they are doing, each of which interferes with another, or causes some other harm. They aren’t looking at the secondary effects.

    I would also note that 1 and 2 above don’t benefit their constituents and/or harm their constituents. For example, the minimum wage attracts workers from other cities. These are just something they want to do due to their political ideology.

  46. 1296
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1281 – I guess the state will root for this company. I assume the RE excise tax of 1.78% of the home’s value gets paid twice within a few months?

  47. 1297

    RE: wreckingbull @ 1287 – That currently happens on relocation sales–typically the REET gets paid twice the same day! The first time from the owner to the relocation company and the second time from the company to the buyer.

    But I had missed that they were actually taking title. That 1.78% will really eat into their 3% pay.

  48. 1298

    On the homeless encampments, check out these six pictures posted by KOMO today.

    http://komonews.com/news/local/gallery/pierce-county-clears-massive-homeless-camp-puyallup-businesses-hope-crime-drops#/

    Garbage, trees damaged, needles, and undoubtedly human waste.

  49. 1299
    uwp says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1289 – I wonder if the Seattle City Council caused those encampments in Puyallup.

  50. 1300

    RE: uwp @ 1290 – More likely the Seattle City Council will be the cause of those campers moving up to Seattle. In Seattle they will be left alone.

  51. 1301
    greg says:

    By Erik @ 1258:

    RE: greg @ 1257
    I went to Trader Joe’s yesterday in West Seattle. I bought 20 cans of coconut milk and signed a petition to remove the head tax. The only reason I signed it was so real estate prices would keep going up. To me it was basically a petition to keep the Seattle real estate mania going. I did my part.

    that is a lot of coconut milk! are you intending to bath in it, or maybe you are making a massive curry?

  52. 1302
    Minnie says:

    Wow this comment thread is getting really weird….even for the internet.

  53. 1303

    More Amazon bashing, by . . ., wait for it . . . ., an attorney who works for Amazon competitors!

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/30/opinions/why-amazon-prime-should-be-free-to-the-public-rafelson/index.html

    I love how he makes his biased case and then jumps somehow to the conclusion that Prime should be free, without any explanation.

  54. 1304
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1289

    (undoubtedly human waste) -> bezos

  55. 1305
    pedaltothemetal says:

    If you like Seattle, give Hyderabad India a try. Truly wonderful place, just like Seattle.

  56. 1306

    Tim was showing signs of life on Facebook as recently as 5/29/18.

  57. 1307
    redmondjp says:

    By Minnie @ 1293:

    Wow this comment thread is getting really weird….even for the internet.

    Oh I don’t know, but 1297 comments and nobody has been called a naughtsee yet, I’d say that’s pretty good! We certainly do live in interesting times.

  58. 1308
    Ross says:

    By David @ 1263:

    RE: sfrz @ 1262 – The Head Tax is a tax on individual jobs. This is a bad idea all around. Obviously Bezos’ business strategies work because he is kind of rich.

    Even though Walmart gets a lot of employees who use welfare services, what would those people be doing if not working at Walmart? Anything different that would wean them from those welfare services?

    Take a trip to Walmart – America’s lower working classes could not survive without being able to shop at Walmart. Amazon is not essential to this country’s survival – Walmart is.

    Therefore Amazon MUST focus on costs and competitiveness. Accessing Amazon’s services has HUGE barriers to entry to overcome.

    To shop at Amazon you need:

    1) a COMPUTER (~$250-$1,200)
    2) High speed Internet service (~$600 annually MINIMUM)
    3) Credit card

    To shop at Walmart you need two feet and some cash.

    All you need is a phone ($99) and a minimal data plan ($25/mo). Or access to a library (free). You can shop from Amazon using cash, by buying gift cards or loading cash onto your account at B&M places like CVS.

    To shop at Walmart, you often need a car or an uber. Many Walmart locations are located on the outskirts of town without public transportation option.

  59. 1309
    David says:

    Illegal aliens getting welfare is WHOLLY different than what you call corporate welfare. US employees and corporations are tax paying members of society. Illegal aliens are just part of the 8B people on Earth who would happily take the Democrats up on free welfare money. Corporations and employees contribute to society.

    I sold WMT stock at $110 /share a few months ago after getting pissed about their online services lagging. It now sits at ~$82. Though, online, it has greatly improved in the past month or so. I’ve been to WM’s corporate office in Bentonville. WMT employees are OCD on cost constraints.

    You’ve lost your mind if you think Walmart’s average shopper is white, female and making in the $50s. This is a statistical lie. Costco’s average shopper earns $100k/year.

    Go visit a Walmart at 8PM and then a Costco at 8PM. VERY different clientele.

    I shop at WM too. They have definitely improved their product offerings – which is good because their merch was bottom of the barrel for a long time.

    By Bubble Trouble @ 1277:

    By David @ 1263:

    RE: sfrz @ 1262 – The Head Tax is a tax on individual jobs. This is a bad idea all around. Obviously Bezos’ business strategies work because he is kind of rich.

    Even though Walmart gets a lot of employees who use welfare services, what would those people be doing if not working at Walmart? Anything different that would wean them from those welfare services?

    Take a trip to Walmart – America’s lower working classes could not survive without being able to shop at Walmart. Amazon is not essential to this country’s survival – Walmart is.

    Therefore Amazon MUST focus on costs and competitiveness. Accessing Amazon’s services has HUGE barriers to entry to overcome.

    To shop at Amazon you need:

    1) a COMPUTER (~$250-$1,200)
    2) High speed Internet service (~$600 annually MINIMUM)
    3) Credit card

    To shop at Walmart you need two feet and some cash.

    Not really. WalMart is the very definition of middle class. I shop at WM all the time myself. I bought weed and feed there over the weekend for about 20% less than it costs at Home Depot. Exact same product, 20% cheaper. You’d have to be a fool to spend the extra money elsewhere. And despite what the myth is, WM has changed its product offering radically. Lots of organic food options, Starbucks coffee, etc. Today’s WM isn’t what it was in the 80s.

    “According to the data, the average Walmart shopper is a white, 51-year-old female with an annual household income of $56,482.” This is from 2016 using 2015 data. In 2015 the median HH income in the US was also $56,500.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-shopper-demographics-2016-10

  60. 1310

    By wreckingbull @ 1287:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1281 – I guess the state will root for this company. I assume the RE excise tax of 1.78% of the home’s value gets paid twice within a few months?

    Here’s another article on that with some additional detail. If I’m reading that right they give back 1% of the SOC. After the 1.78% REET that wouldn’t leave a heck of a lot left. That doesn’t make sense.

    https://www.geekwire.com/2018/flyhomes-lands-17m-purchase-homes-directly-buyers-battling-cash-offers-hot-housing-markets/

  61. 1311
    David says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1299 – Zip Code 98168 shows as a buyer’s market according to Zillow. You can find more affordable housing if you want it.

  62. 1312
    pfft says:

    By David @ 1263:

    RE: sfrz @ 1262
    Take a trip to Walmart – America’s lower working classes could not survive without being able to shop at Walmart.

    AND THAT IS BECAUSE OF COMPANIES LIKE WALMART. walmart employees have a tough time surviving.

  63. 1313
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1265:

    By sfrz @ 1259:

    Wages began to flatline in the 70s, while corporate profits skyrocketed.

    I don’t think it had that much to do with politicians.

    yes. corporations keep all the profits today. the politicians voted in those tax policies.

  64. 1314
    pfft says:

    Hey guys(especially kary) no mention of Trump’s escalating trade war? nothing about his German carmaker comments? Imagine if Obama did this?

    Trump reportedly says he wants to wipe German cars off the U.S. map
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-reportedly-says-wants-wipe-133000333.html

    You think this will hurt jobs and home prices? It will cancel the meager benefits the average person would see for the unpaid for tax cuts for the rich that Trump pushed.

    Thank God we have a CEO president. Btw his jobs number was under 200,000 last month. His trade war could cost up to 100,000 jobs. His car trade war would probably do far worse damage.

    He must really not like Merkel. Probably because she had to keep correcting him on trade when they met.

    -Elect a clown expect a circus.

  65. 1315
    David says:

    I’m sure Walmart employees would be hired by Amazon and paid $100k/year. If only…

    By pfft @ 1301:

    By David @ 1263:

    RE: sfrz @ 1262
    Take a trip to Walmart – America’s lower working classes could not survive without being able to shop at Walmart.

    AND THAT IS BECAUSE OF COMPANIES LIKE WALMART. walmart employees have a tough time surviving.

  66. 1316
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1299 – I ‘d have to see how they structure the buy side to have enough funds within the overall transaction to make the sell back to the “buyer” and make any net profit at all.

    In Washington State it appears there is no way to avoid excise tax on both transactions based on what they are proposing on the initial cash purchase by the FlyHomes and subsequent Deeding back the property to the buyer once they have obtained their financing. It does not appear to meet the “Nominee” test per WAC 458-61A-214. Pay attention to paragraph 3b…..the funds used to purchase by the “Nominee” (ie, FlyHomes) must have been the Third Party’s funds to avoid and be exempt from Excise Tax.

    Regardless I think the Excise Dept’s would want to look very closely at these transactions if they are trying to avoid excise tax which can be hefty. (not that the State of Washington wouldn’t want the money)

  67. 1317
    pfft says:

    RE: David @ 1304 – what you said doesn’t have anything to do with anything.

    today’s corporate cry is take what you can, give nothing back.

  68. 1318
    Erik says:

    RE: greg @ 1292
    I do coconut milk hot chocolate. Coconut milk, coconut oil, cacao powder. I drink that instead of food because it’s easy and I don’t like eating late. Software engineers in Redmond eat caviar. Us struggling aerospace people just try to get enough calories.

  69. 1319
    Erik says:

    RE: sfrz @ 1259
    I think you mean PRIVATIZE profits and socialize losses.

    Did you read that book yet by Thomas Sowell I’ve been telling everyone on here to read? It cover that quote by the Wall Street Journal along with an understanding of how the last bubble happened. It would be particularly useful for you as it was for me.

  70. 1320
    Erik says:

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 1273
    Oh Tiiiim!!! Another F-bomb from pedaltothemetal.

    When Tim gets back, he’s gonna give you a virtual spank’n. And you know what, you deserve it. Try present tense. I dare you.

  71. 1321
    sfrz says:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1278 – Minimizing.

  72. 1322
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1297
    Thanks for internet stalking Tim for us.

    Maybe Tim followed the path of his neighbors in North Everett and finally picked up a crack pipe and went on his first bender? North E will wear a man down.

  73. 1323
    greg says:

    By pfft @ 1301:

    By David @ 1263:

    RE: sfrz @ 1262
    Take a trip to Walmart – America’s lower working classes could not survive without being able to shop at Walmart.

    AND THAT IS BECAUSE OF COMPANIES LIKE WALMART. walmart employees have a tough time surviving.

    that is simply not true.

    Walmart is a very tough competitor driving down pricing at source , but that was just the next logical step. If you want to blame someone blame the dude who started standardization of shipping containers. or the guy who came up with standardizing everything from wire , nuts and bolts to railway gauges.

    the reality is Walmart did not start it, not even close they just did it better. there were expeditor companies before Walmart .

    It is our hyper capitalistic society that is to blame. We have taken a virtue and turned it into a vice, and shame on us for allowing it to happen and to happen so completely and so quickly. We went from building a balanced capitalist nation to one of winner takes all and to hell with the vanquished.

  74. 1324
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 1305 – Thanks. I am really having a hard time understanding how any of this pencils out when the REET is paid twice. Perhaps their legal team has given them guidance that the REET does not need to be double paid. If so, I think I know how the State of Washington DOR might respond :)

  75. 1325
    sfrz says:

    RE: greg @ 1312 – Boom. The end of empire.

  76. 1326
    sfrz says:

    RE: sfrz @ 1324 – Batten down the hatches. Eric- get that “For Sale” sign out. Cash is king. Debt is so last year. FBs and Debt Donkeys, pack up. “So here are the most splendid housing bubbles in major metro areas in the US:
    Seattle:
    The Seattle metro index spiked 2.8% from the prior month to a new record. Late last year, it had experienced the first monthly declines since the end of 2014, now left behind as seasonal blips. The index soared 13.0% from a year ago and is now 27.4% above the peak of Housing Bubble 1 (July 2007). Note the historic spike over the past two months:
    http://www.businessinsider.com/housing-prices-are-well-above-pre-financial-crisis-levels-2018-5

  77. 1327
    David says:

    RE: sfrz @ 1325 – Are you expecting a crash and then stasis in Seattle? Never to return to their current prices? Of course there will be a housing crash, a market crash, a recession, global warming AND global cooling. There will also be a run-up and price growth. Babies will keep being born and people still need housing.

    We could indeed end up being like a 3rd world country though if the population matches what we see in those 3rd world countries.Then all bets are off.

  78. 1328
    redmondjp says:

    By pfft @ 1316:

    RE: David @ 1304 – what you said doesn’t have anything to do with anything.

    today’s corporate cry is take what you can, give nothing back.

    Which is exactly the same motto of Seattle Street People, ironically!

    And the taxpaying middle class gets to pay both the rich and the poor. How much longer is that going to work?

  79. 1329
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: Erik @ 1321 – He doesn’t seem to mind our commentary. He’s got better things to do! https://twitter.com/The_Tim/status/1000579568699240448

  80. 1330
    sfrz says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 1327 – It’s not working. And that’s why the rich are scared. They know the pitchforks are coming.
    Nick Hanauer- one of our own. “If we don’t do something to fix the glaring inequities in this economy, the pitchforks are going to come for us. No society can sustain this kind of rising inequality. In fact, there is no example in human history where wealth accumulated like this and the pitchforks didn’t eventually come out. You show me a highly unequal society, and I will show you a police state. Or an uprising. There are no counterexamples. None. It’s not if, it’s when.” https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014

  81. 1331
    David says:

    3.8% unemployment. The Trump Renaissance is amazing.

    But can it sustain growth if no one exists to hire?

  82. 1332
    sfrz says:

    RE: David @ 1330 – watch his TED talk. His article was one of the reasons for the Seattle $15 min. wage law proposal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2gO4DKVpa8

  83. 1333
    ess says:

    By Erik @ 1318:

    RE: sfrz @ 1259
    I think you mean PRIVATIZE profits and socialize losses.

    Did you read that book yet by Thomas Sowell I’ve been telling everyone on here to read? It cover that quote by the Wall Street Journal along with an understanding of how the last bubble happened. It would be particularly useful for you as it was for me.

    Just finished Sowell’s Housing Boom and Bust. Although it focuses on the issues of the last housing crisis, much of the general philosophy is still appropriate and relevant.

  84. 1334
    Erik says:

    RE: ess @ 1332
    Awesome ess! History repeats. I’ve listened to it on audible a bunch of times because I’m a little dense and ocd.

    Mr. Sowell talks about what drives housing prices higher and details how the last bubble happened. I’ve already seen racial equality being pushed for auto loans. Dodd frank has already been repealed once. I think the racial inequality will come over to the housing market again and Dodd frank will get another repeal for all banks. If that happens, it will pave the road for another big bubble and money making opportunity for those that are informed of what is going on. Seattle needs to marry a software bubble with a credit bubble so we can retire early.

  85. 1335
    Erik says:

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 1328
    Tim is having wild parties in North Everett that bring the fire department out. It looked as though the fire department was sending Tim a message.

    The whole time Tim is partying, us commenters are being starved of housing data. Please come back Tim, we’ll be good.

  86. 1336
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By David @ 1308:

    I sold WMT stock at $110 /share a few months ago after getting pissed about their online services lagging. It now sits at ~$82. Though, online, it has greatly improved in the past month or so. I’ve been to WM’s corporate office in Bentonville. WMT employees are OCD on cost constraints.

    You’ve lost your mind if you think Walmart’s average shopper is white, female and making in the $50s. This is a statistical lie. Costco’s average shopper earns $100k/year.

    Go visit a Walmart at 8PM and then a Costco at 8PM. VERY different clientele.

    I don’t think it, it’s what the research data says. And whether Costco’s shopper earns $100K or $100M a year is irrelevant to what WM’s average shopper earns. Personally I shop at both, and Target and Amazon and a ton more retailers. It’s not an either or proposition.

    I’ve owned WM for over 10 years, good steady dividend. I was tempted to sell when it crossed $100 as well but didn’t. Oh well.

  87. 1337
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By softwarengineer @ 1293:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1277
    The Toothless Smiles of Some Walmart Employees Horrify Me

    I hear WM employees have a health care plan..

    They do. Pays 60-75% of the cost which is fairly typical for corporate America today.

    https://corporate.walmart.com/our-story/working-at-walmart

  88. 1338

    By David @ 1310:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1299 – Zip Code 98168 shows as a buyer’s market according to Zillow. You can find more affordable housing if you want it.

    Assuming that’s correct, that just proves my point that Zillow is a useless website. Having about 1.5 months of inventory is hardly a buyer’s market.

    Approximate number 1.5 from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  89. 1339

    RE: pfft/greg @ 1313 – I’m actually surprised Trump is carrying the steel tariff thing as far as he is. I thought it was just a negotiating ploy–and it may still be. He has gotten some trade concessions with his threats, but maybe he feels like he needs to carry it further to actually negotiate further.

    I don’t like Trump or many of his policies, but unlike Obama he does have a clue about how to negotiate. But the point is with Trump you don’t know what’s a threat and what’s a policy, so there’s little need to comment on it.

  90. 1340

    By S-Crow @ 1316:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1299 – I ‘d have to see how they structure the buy side to have enough funds within the overall transaction to make the sell back to the “buyer” and make any net profit at all.

    In Washington State it appears there is no way to avoid excise tax on both transactions based on what they are proposing on the initial cash purchase by the FlyHomes and subsequent Deeding back the property to the buyer once they have obtained their financing. It does not appear to meet the “Nominee” test per WAC 458-61A-214. Pay attention to paragraph 3b…..the funds used to purchase by the “Nominee” (ie, FlyHomes) must have been the Third Party’s funds to avoid and be exempt from Excise Tax.

    I would agree. I would also note that relocation companies don’t qualify for that WAC because they are not acting on behalf of the buyer.

  91. 1341

    By Erik @ 1318:

    RE: greg @ 1292
    I do coconut milk hot chocolate. Coconut milk, coconut oil, cacao powder. I drink that instead of food because it’s easy and I don’t like eating late. Software engineers in Redmond eat caviar. Us struggling aerospace people just try to get enough calories.

    Have you had your cholesterol checked since you started that routine! 1/3rd of a cup of coconut milk has 50% of your recommended saturated fat content! An entire can 250%! We make a few things with coconut milk (e.g curry), but we don’t eat those things on even a weekly basis.

  92. 1342

    By David @ 1331:

    3.8% unemployment. The Trump Renaissance is amazing.

    But can it sustain growth if no one exists to hire?

    Fake news!

    Seriously, I don’t know why anyone believes unemployment figures given the fact that: (1) We have a homeless crisis at levels not seen since the Great Depression; and (2) There’s no wage growth. If unemployment was really that low one or both of those things would not be true. There’s a serious problem with measurement of unemployment.

  93. 1343

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1342
    And the Current Job Wages and Hours/Week Without Manufacturing are Totally Unlivable in Seattle

    We’ve got to bite the NWO bullet and work to regain our factories again….this takes time with large machinery…yes, the Japanese steel in your American assembled foreign engineered car will go down in price with American steel too….American pig iron is cheaper than Japanese scrap metal. German Mercedes will be banned, so what….the FCA Chrysler 300 is half the price and sports a 9 speed Mercedes transmission anyway…Canadian assembled Dodge Chargers can’t use their pig iron, they’ll switch to American pig iron and yes, its cheaper….the way overpriced Toyota RAV and Lexus products made in Japan are doomed, who cares? They were just phony Mexican assembled Corollas anyway…

    The good news for consumers of used cars….American Safety Engineering safety recalls [and elimination of foreign controlled courts in America] will be levied fairly on all cars sold perhaps, not lied about and traded in as “an ignored SERIOUS maintenance time bomb” lying in a poor family’s garage. Or worse yet, American engineered cars attacked with phony safety recalls at the same time. Why should we care if Toyota goes bankrupt obeying America safety recalls?…simply pocket their money and change brands. Don’t lie to hurt the poor.

  94. 1344

    On the topic of unions, apparently a union election succeeded in SC at a Boeing plant. Just a small group of employees, but it does indicate things were not all that rosy for them being unrepresented.

    http://komonews.com/news/local/in-rare-win-boeing-worker-unit-unionizes-in-south-carolina

  95. 1345
    greg says:

    By David @ 1272:

    RE: sfrz @ 1262 – The Head Tax is a tax on individual jobs. This is a bad idea all around. Obviously Bezos’ business strategies work because he is kind of rich.

    Even though Walmart gets a lot of employees who use welfare services, what would those people be doing if not working at Walmart? Anything different that would wean them from those welfare services?

    Take a trip to Walmart – America’s lower working classes could not survive without being able to shop at Walmart. Amazon is not essential to this country’s survival – Walmart is.

    Therefore Amazon MUST focus on costs and competitiveness. Accessing Amazon’s services has HUGE barriers to entry to overcome.

    To shop at Amazon you need:

    1) a COMPUTER (~$250-$1,200)
    2) High speed Internet service (~$600 annually MINIMUM)
    3) Credit card

    To shop at Walmart you need two feet and some cash.

    balls, to shop at amazon you just need to go to the public library use their services. and you DON’T need a credit card dummy you can load money directly from your bank account to amazon or just buy a Amazon gift card in the supermarket.

    Thus you are either stupid , lying or both. David, you should up your game .

  96. 1346
    N says:

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/05/31/high-home-prices-rising-mortgage-rates-wall-streets-resurging-buy-to-rent-scheme-hit-pending-home-sales/

    Last year, Wall Street firms bought over 29,000 single-family homes, concentrated on a handful of markets, the most since 2014, Bloomberg reported earlier this month. This is a scheme that was launched in late 2011, with PE firms such as Blackstone Group using cheap funding and buying up homes out of foreclosure. These entities became the nation’s largest landlords that have by now mostly been spun off into publicly traded REITs. They developed a new structured security with which to fund their purchases: rent-backed securities. The peak year of purchases was 2013. Then purchases fell.

    But now they’re rising again – in 2017 to the highest level since 2014. Among the largest buyers last year:

    Cerberus Capital Management bought an estimated 5,100 houses.
    Amherst, via its subsidiary, Main Street Renewal, bought about 4,900 houses.
    Tricon, the third-largest publicly traded single-family landlord behind Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent, bought about 850 houses.

    And this trend is continuing, fired up by strong rental demand for single-family homes and by cheap funding methods available only to large firms, including rent-backed securities and a still easy bond market. In investors’ minds – both, those that purchase the debt and those that purchase the shares of the REITs – the buy-to-rent scheme has turned into a proven global asset class, and this creates more demand for those investments. And the homes are pulled off the for-sale listings are appear on the for-rent listings

  97. 1347
    Blake says:

    Meanwhile…
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-01/it-s-2007-again-for-commercial-mortgage-bonds-moody-s-says

    Commercial mortgage bonds are getting stuffed with the lowest-quality loans since the financial crisis by one measure, according to Moody’s Investors Service, a warning sign that the $517 billion market may be headed for harder times.

    The securities are backed by as many interest-only mortgages as they were in late 2006 and early 2007, Moody’s said. Those loans are riskier because borrowers don’t pay any principal early in the debt’s life. When that period expires, the property owners are on the hook for much higher payments.

    The percentage of interest-only loans in a commercial mortgage bond is an “important bellwether” for the industry, according to Moody’s analysts, because the loans are more likely to default and to bring bigger losses to lenders when they do. Underwriters aren’t taking steps to fully offset the rising risks, the ratings firm said.

    The growing percentage of interest-only loans is “a significant negative credit trend, as well as an important warning sign of deteriorating underwriting standards,” analysts led by Kevin Fagan wrote in a note this week. In the first three months of the year, more than 75 percent of loans in commercial mortgage bonds with multiple borrowers were interest-only, the highest share since late 2006. On average, a borrower can wait nearly six years before paying principal, up from 2.2 years four years ago.

    The riskier debt getting packaged into commercial mortgage bonds mirrors a trend that’s infiltrated many corners of the credit markets, from leveraged loans to residential mortgage securities: As investors have flocked to debt investments that seem safe, underwriters have been emboldened to make the instruments riskier and keep yields relatively high by removing or watering down protections.
    (end quote)

    But, I am sure that Erik and other knee jerk right-wingers here will say “IT’S THE GOVERNMENT’S FAULT!!!!!”
    Really?? …really?

  98. 1348
    greg says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1344:

    On the topic of unions, apparently a union election succeeded in SC at a Boeing plant. Just a small group of employees, but it does indicate things were not all that rosy for them being unrepresented.

    http://komonews.com/news/local/in-rare-win-boeing-worker-unit-unionizes-in-south-carolina

    great news. We need unions, but not the money grubbing type of the last 40 years. we need low cost unions that are there to protect the workers from employer bullying/abuse. We don’t need those high fee , demarcation unions of old.

    We need more balance for US workers, not as far as the EU has taken it but the status quo is awful. I would love to see the average american worker with more protections, folks need to feel secure. healthcare, shelter, work, education. A secure family is a family that plans for the future and sticks together. Far too many Americans have fallen for the “competitiveness ” ploy corps use to pit workers against each other, cities against each other, states and countries….

  99. 1349
    Blake says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1342:

    By David @ 1331:

    3.8% unemployment. The Trump Renaissance is amazing.

    But can it sustain growth if no one exists to hire?

    Fake news!

    Seriously, I don’t know why anyone believes unemployment figures given the fact that: (1) We have a homeless crisis at levels not seen since the Great Depression; and (2) There’s no wage growth. If unemployment was really that low one or both of those things would not be true. There’s a serious problem with measurement of unemployment.

    I agree Kary… sort of!
    But both your points can be true while the official unemployment rate declines:
    1. The rate excludes “discouraged workers” that have given up looking for a job and this number has risen over the last decade for a variety of reasons. Also: Rough estimates are that about half of the homeless are working! Also: Since Bill Clinton “ended welfare as we know it,” welfare payments (TANF run by the states) have declined significantly and the proportion of Americans living in “extreme poverty” (less than half the poverty rate) have doubled! Neo-liberalism!!!
    2. Economists always theorized that as unemployment gets very low wages rise due to employers having to “compete” for workers. But 30+ years of neo-liberal policies have broken the back of labor in the US and workers have no power to negotiate. Back in the 90s and 00s, Alan Greenspan was testifying before Congress bragging about workers being “frightened” and it has only gotten worse since then. Incredible that even after Trump and the Repugs gave the rich and corporations a $trillion tax break they still won’t “share the wealth” eh?

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/05/09/only-12-think-they-have-benefitted-lot-trumps-economy-poll/594401002/
    Only 12% of Americans feel they have benefitted a lot from the recent U.S. economic upturn, while a majority of families say they are still struggling, according to a new poll out today. The Monmouth University Polling Institute found that another 32% of Americans said they had received some benefit from the economy. But a majority said they either hadn’t benefitted very much (24%) or not at all (29%).

    In a candid conversation at the Dallas Federal Reserve, CEOs stated flatly that workers will not be getting broad-based raises anytime soon. “It’s just not going to happen,” said the CEO of Coke’s Florida division.

    In other words: SUCK IT!!!!

  100. 1350
    Blake says:

    Btw: The invaluable Kevin Phillips (one of my fav writers) wrote a piece in 2008 detailing how the unemployment rate and other economic statistics have been gamed by Republicans and Democrats going back to JFK. It’s an interesting read…
    https://harpers.org/archive/2008/05/numbers-racket/

  101. 1351

    By Blake @ 1350:

    Btw: The invaluable Kevin Phillips (one of my fav writers) wrote a piece in 2008 detailing how the unemployment rate and other economic statistics have been gamed by Republicans and Democrats going back to JFK. It’s an interesting read…
    https://harpers.org/archive/2008/05/numbers-racket/

    Somewhat related, I just watched “The Post” last night, which is about “The Pentagon Papers” which shed light on what the government really thought about Vietnam, going back to Truman. Maybe we need a Pentagon Papers for government economic statistics?

  102. 1352
    uwp says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1339:

    RE: pfft/greg @ 1313 – I’m actually surprised Trump is carrying the steel tariff thing as far as he is. I thought it was just a negotiating ploy–and it may still be. He has gotten some trade concessions with his threats, but maybe he feels like he needs to carry it further to actually negotiate further.

    I don’t like Trump or many of his policies, but unlike Obama he does have a clue about how to negotiate. But the point is with Trump you don’t know what’s a threat and what’s a policy, so there’s little need to comment on it.

    Trump will do what he always does:
    1. Make loud noises to appeal to base
    2. Misstate key facts to make himself look better
    3. Declare victory (whatever the outcome)
    4. Then move on to the next thing

    Base only remembers #1.
    Media feels compelled to “both sides” the issue.
    News cycle finds next outrage.

    Repeat ad nauseam.

  103. 1353
    greg says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1351:

    By Blake @ 1350:

    Btw: The invaluable Kevin Phillips (one of my fav writers) wrote a piece in 2008 detailing how the unemployment rate and other economic statistics have been gamed by Republicans and Democrats going back to JFK. It’s an interesting read…
    https://harpers.org/archive/2008/05/numbers-racket/

    Somewhat related, I just watched “The Post” last night, which is about “The Pentagon Papers” which shed light on what the government really thought about Vietnam, going back to Truman. Maybe we need a Pentagon Papers for government economic statistics?

    that is freaky i watched the post last night too…. About 9-11 pm… hmmm Were you peeking in my windows Kary? Want me to pipe some sound out the next time?

  104. 1354

    RE: uwp @ 1352 – Many/most of those “loud noises” are just for distraction, and the press bites.

  105. 1355
    uwp says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1354 – Yes. Our world is broken.

    At least we can count on Seattle real estate to go up 10% a year.
    :)

  106. 1356
    Matt P says:

    Regarding the apartments in Issaquah not being wanted amd causing the building moratorium, it is true. There is no reason for there to be large apartment complexes that far from the city. The city should be stuffed with high density housing and the suburbs filled with low density, but there are too many nimbys in Seattle preventing the needed upzoning.

  107. 1357
    David says:

    True on unemployment stats being manipulated I suppose. BUT, how can the Government make people look for work? People have to take the initiative – and that probably means removing incentives to NOT work. I’ll take the trend under Trump to the cluster-F of Obama’s depression of 8 years any day.

    Related, Obama had miserable GDP growth all of his tenure. However, JUST before the 2012 election GDP suddenly pooped up over 2%? It was ADJUSTED down MONTHS later after everyone had forgotten all about it. Purely coincidental that it happened just before the election I’m sure. In fact, I think EVERY GDP announcement was later adjusted down under Obama for all 8 years.

  108. 1358

    By Matt P @ 1356:

    Regarding the apartments in Issaquah not being wanted amd causing the building moratorium, it is true. There is no reason for there to be large apartment complexes that far from the city. The city should be stuffed with high density housing and the suburbs filled with low density, but there are too many nimbys in Seattle preventing the needed upzoning.

    Issaquah is close to Bellevue. Not everyone wants to live or work in Seattle.

    But I will note the irony of complaining about NIMBY while making a NIMBY argument. ;-)

  109. 1359
    David says:

    I’ll play Devil’s advocate about continued housing price growth as well.

    I worked in a major Southern city as a criminal defense lawyer during the Hurricane Katrina exodus that saw over 50,000 people move into the area. Did housing prices rise? NOOOO! Granted, these were displaced citizens from the craphole of New Orleans. Did you know you can murder someone in New Orleans 5 years previous and be out on probation? I learned this from experience representing a LA funhole who was just that. I digress. But this large city I worked in made it a point to essentially ban these folks from all but one rural county in the State to get rid of them once they pled out to various crimes.

    ANYWAY, I read once that EVERY SINGLE HUMAN on Earth can fit into a cubic-mile-wide building with room to move about. In other words, everyone on Earth could fit into a building on the waterfront of Seattle. NO ONE is coming to Seattle because of the great weather like they do in California (or stay). CA is losing people because of their progressive-regressivism. Seattle’s price growth is ultimately a reflection of the City’s policies limiting housing. BUT that is only made possible by the legacy of past generations promoting PRO-growth policies with entrenched employers. THIS can CHANGE and probably will as employers get the message.

    I own a largish boat. Boats the size of mine don’t change directions the moment the rudder turns. It takes time. Seattle is screwing employers and eventually, the rudder will turn it in.

    On a side note: Why do so many progressive=leftist men rape people? Asking for a friend. Also, why do I get such weird vibes from ‘pfft’?

  110. 1360
    Blake says:

    RE: David @ 1359
    Re:”On a side note: Why do so many progressive=leftist men rape people? Asking for a friend.”

    WTF? Do you have any data or evidence for that? Or are you just making up sh!t like Trump?

  111. 1361

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1341
    Diet Fads Lie Too Kary

    I was a gym fanatic for decades and all the personal trainers pushed soy products, protein powder shakes and no just plain milk….LOL….the protein powder is 100% plain milk…..it tastes just like the cow calf product I fed to livestock [same thing?] on the farm….HORRIBLE IOWs. The truth…..soy does nothing for your cardiovascular health [Fake News]….the soy ice cream is especially toxic with chemicals and additives. I drink 100% pure milk, always have….they didn’t brain wash me.

    They put sugar in all the whole grain products in the store except certain shredded wheat and old fashion whole oats….pure whole grains are all probiotics and mixing any carb [fruit, vegetables, white flour, white rice, etc, etc] destroys the good bacteria that causes weight loss. Has your doctor told you this? LOL

  112. 1362

    RE: Blake @ 1360
    Most Criminals Support the Open Border Party

    But the important point is to prosecute all unlawfulness equally with no political agenda. With NWO foreign run courts in America I see this as impossible, until Trump replaces the foreign bent court judges….

  113. 1363
    N says:

    By David @ 1359:

    Seattle is screwing employers and eventually, the rudder will turn it in.

    It’s amazing how Chicago has fallen so quickly in the rankings of most expensive rental cities — #8 two years ago to #17 now, behind Providence RI, where two years ago it was right there with Seattle. And to think tax policies are partially to blame…

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/06/01/update-on-the-splendid-rental-bubbles-crashes-in-the-us/

    Chicago rents have lost their grip. In September 2016, Chicago was still in eighth place among the 100 most expensive major metros in the US. In May, 1-BR rents fell to 17th place, bypassed by Providence, RI, and 2-BR rents were in 16th place, after plunging 27% and 28% from their peaks in the fall of 2015.

    The dynamics in Chicago are, let’s say, a little special. There has been plenty of new construction. At the same time, the population has been declining as tax burdens are growing and as the city is very slowly traipsing toward what may become the largest municipal bankruptcy filing in the US.

  114. 1364
    Blake says:

    By softwarengineer @ 1362:

    RE: Blake @ 1360
    Most Criminals Support the Open Border Party

    But the important point is to prosecute all unlawfulness equally with no political agenda. With NWO foreign run courts in America I see this as impossible, until Trump replaces the foreign bent court judges….

    Hate to trouble you with facts SWE, but Obama deported more people than any President in US history… at a higher rate than Trump!
    Was Obama an “Open border progressive?” Why did he deport 240,000 people in 2016 alone?

    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/08/trump-deportations-behind-obama-levels-241420
    The U.S. is deporting people more slowly than during the Obama administration despite President Donald Trump’s vast immigration crackdown, according to new data from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

    From Feb. 1 to June 30, ICE officials removed 84,473 people — a rate of roughly 16,900 people per month. If deportations continue at the same clip until the fiscal year ends Sept. 30, federal immigration officials will have removed fewer people than they did during even the slowest years of Barack Obama’s presidency.

    In fiscal year 2016, ICE removed 240,255 people from the country, a rate of more than 20,000 people per month.

    In fiscal year 2012 — the peak year for deportations under Obama — the agency removed an average of roughly 34,000 people per month.
    (end quote)

    Oh and immigrants are LESS LIKELY to commit rape than red-bloooded Americans… you f*cking pin head!

    (Since the rise of Rush Limbaugh and Faux News, right-wing ditto heads have been lost in a fog of fake facts and disinformation… It helps that most of them seem to lack any critical thinking skills and are easily duped. “There’s an epidemic of rapes by Mexicans!!!”… “It’s them darkies that caused the 2008 crash!” Oh and… “Trump is not a con artist… he’s a devout Christian, family man who respects women and wants to enrich the country not himself!” What kind of f*cking imbeciles are these people? Wake up, you ARE BEING CONNED!!! )

  115. 1365

    RE: Blake @ 1364 – There are enough disclaimers in that Politico article that even citing the statistic is questionable. One that really stands out is the backlog of over 600,000 cases.

    These things can vary for many reasons, including possibly even the fact that in a bad job economy people might not fight deportation so hard. The early Obama years were clearly such an economy.

  116. 1366
    Blake says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1365
    My question remains: If Obama is some open border progressive, why would he deport 240,000 people in one year?

    (It’s actually just a rhetorical question… I know. ;-))

    I actually hope Trump breaks Obama’s record. Our economy depends upon immigrant labor (especially now) and Trump will truly damage the economy if he deports even more than the big 0 did! Oh, that and a trade war with Europe, China… Japan…
    I encourage the orange maggot… Go for it! One term for you!

  117. 1367
    greg says:

    By Blake @ 1360:

    RE: David @ 1359
    Re:”On a side note: Why do so many progressive=leftist men rape people? Asking for a friend.”

    WTF? Do you have any data or evidence for that? Or are you just making up sh!t like Trump?

    My guess is David has some repressed issues.

  118. 1368
    David says:

    RE: N @ 1363 – Chicago, come for the lake views, stay because you got murdered.

  119. 1369
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1341
    I don’t follow the food pyramid or whatever lies the main stream is pushing.

  120. 1370
    Erik says:

    RE: Blake @ 1366
    It sounds like you are thinking with your emotions as many trump haters do. Trump doing an awesome job for Americans. I’m not even a Republican and I can certainty give credit where credit is due.

  121. 1371
    David says:

    RE: Erik @ 1370 – If this happens, TRUMP will go down as the greatest economic President since WW2:

    Atlanta Fed boosts GDP forecast to 4.8%

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/06/01/atlanta-fed-boosts-second-quarter-gdp-forecast-to-4-8/

    Also, Costco today announced that the Trump tax cuts allow them to raise starting wages.

  122. 1372
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 1371
    I’m not really familiar with all these things. I’m glad trump is trying to level the playing field with China and other countries when it come to trade. We have been getting bad deals for years. Our standard of living has been lower because of the bozos in the White House. Finally someone with s little sense. Honestly, I didn’t know he could do so many great things for America.

    Btw, I wanted Bernie Sanders because I wanted him to expose the pharmaceutical companies and reduce the toxins in our food supply. Trump is doing an exceptional job and I can certainly recognize that. Breath of fresh air after frat boy George w bush and fast talking politician Obummer.

  123. 1373
    greg says:

    By Erik @ 1370:

    RE: Blake @ 1366
    It sounds like you are thinking with your emotions as many trump haters do. Trump doing an awesome job for Americans. I’m not even a Republican and I can certainty give credit where credit is due.

    cool story. but…

    Trump was elected for 1 underlying reason and one reason ONLY.
    To close the wealth gap.

    Instead he has accelerated widening of the gap.

    Thus Trump has so far 100% failed his people. You can make up any poop you like but this is the reason we see populism . the ever widening wealth gap, the extreme length of this “gap cycle”.

    combine that with insecurity ….health, retirement, ed, employment….

  124. 1374
    David says:

    RE: greg @ 1373 – Trump was elected for 3 reasons:

    1) Economic Might
    2) Trade reform
    3) Illegal alien removal

  125. 1375
    Erik says:

    RE: greg @ 1373
    Show me where it says Trump was elected to close the wealth gap. I must have missed that somewhere. That doesn’t make any sense. You’d be a fool to think he was going to do that. Yeah right, a business man wants to give money to people with a poor work ethic or are not intelligent.

  126. 1376
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 1374
    That sounds much more reasonable. Strike 1 on Greg for trying to feed us lies. 3 ridiculous statements or lies and I ignore that commenter.

  127. 1377
    Rupert D says:

    RE: Erik @ 1376
    Greg=sfrz=pfft=same person. Maybe if The Tim could tear himself away from his weenie roast and post some stats then the political malcontents could find another outlet for their irrational postings.

  128. 1378
    David says:

    RE: Rupert D @ 1377 – Pfft, what do you think Seattle Mayor Ed Murray is most interested in?

    Here’s a hint: http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/07/07/05/3606A70D00000578-3678122-Look_at_the_size_of_it_The_sausage_is_30cm_long_and_is_topped_wi-a-122_1467866219653.jpg

    Large weiners in tiny buns. Even better if those buns are black.

    Does pfft support ferreting out the Progressives still working for the City who helped target Murray’s accusers?

  129. 1379
    Matt P says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1358:

    By Matt P @ 1356:

    Regarding the apartments in Issaquah not being wanted amd causing the building moratorium, it is true. There is no reason for there to be large apartment complexes that far from the city. The city should be stuffed with high density housing and the suburbs filled with low density, but there are too many nimbys in Seattle preventing the needed upzoning.

    Issaquah is close to Bellevue. Not everyone wants to live or work in Seattle.

    But I will note the irony of complaining about NIMBY while making a NIMBY argument. ;-)

    I’m not making a NIMBY argument – I don’t agree with their reason for the moratorium, which is that it’s an eyesore – I’m making zoning argument. High density housing should be at the city center and low density farther out. This prevents congestion caused by too many people traveling too far to work. Instead, we have too many people who either want to live far out but don’t want to pay for a house or too many who want to live close but don’t want to live in an apartment and thus we have a traffic nightmare.

  130. 1380
    sfrz says:

    RE: Rupert D @ 1377 – As I have mentioned before, politics and real estate are melded together. Our economy is based on F.I.R.E. ; Finance, Insurance and Real Estate, which is killing America. So, your name calling and arrogant dismissal tells me about your lack of knowledge. Real Estate IS political.
    No company has purchased more homes since 2007 than Blackstone. Group, through its subsidiary, Invitation Homes. Its investors are Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and JPMorgan Chase. Do any of these names sound political, or have any political interests? It is the largest owner of single-family rental homes in the nation.

  131. 1381
    Justme says:

    RE: Blake @ 1349

    Blake mentioned “discouraged workers” not being counted among the unemployed, and I’m sure he knows about labor participation rate being a more interesting number than the “unemployment rate”.

    But for those that have not seen it, here is that plot again, showing labor participation rate peaking at
    67% in 2000 and bouncing around below 63% in 2018. It never recovered after the great recession.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

    Hopefully no moderation because of the link :-)

  132. 1382

    By David @ 1371:

    Also, Costco today announced that the Trump tax cuts allow them to raise starting wages.

    I think if you read what they’re saying, it’s that the tax cuts will allow the increase in pay without impacting earnings versus prior years. But the fact they are doing that may indicate that the economy is improving–they need to increase wages to compete for good employees.

    It’s somewhat interesting that so many companies did bonuses after the tax cuts instead of wage increases. That indicates that they didn’t think they needed to raise wages, and was really more of a PR move.

    Other companies did stock buybacks, which is okay, but the impact of those would be delayed until the investors who sold invest in something else–assuming they don’t buy something instead of reinvest.

  133. 1383

    By Matt P @ 1379:

    I’m not making a NIMBY argument – I don’t agree with their reason for the moratorium, which is that it’s an eyesore – I’m making zoning argument. High density housing should be at the city center and low density farther out. This prevents congestion caused by too many people traveling too far to work. Instead, we have too many people who either want to live far out but don’t want to pay for a house or too many who want to live close but don’t want to live in an apartment and thus we have a traffic nightmare.

    Well, maybe it is NIMBY, maybe it isn’t. But there’s a lot of prejudice against apartment everywhere. But you’re also making an argument for better transportation systems, something Seattle delayed doing again and again over the decades. Lots of studies, little action, and that contributes to the mess (and the increased cost as property values rise faster than inflation).

    Off the top of my head, I’m not sure the Growth Management Act would even allow Issaquah to not have sufficient area for multi-family, but I don’t really study that act. What I’m thinking though is that it probably is designed so that local governments have to deal with growth on a regional basis.

  134. 1384

    By Justme @ 1381:

    But for those that have not seen it, here is that plot again, showing labor participation rate peaking at
    67% in 2000 and bouncing around below 63% in 2018. It never recovered after the great recession.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

    Hopefully no moderation because of the link :-)

    First, it’s typically multiple links that trigger moderation.

    Second, that doesn’t show that employment didn’t recover after the Great Recession, it shows that meaningful employment declined after the Great Recession. As I’ve mentioned before, it’s been called the “Jobless Recovery.”

    I’m sure there are many reasons for those stats, some of which are even benign, such as an aging population. But at the top of my list would be Obamacare, which prevented and delayed job growth at exactly the wrong time. Companies tend to invest less and employ fewer when expected future costs are either higher or uncertain. Obamacare created both higher costs and more uncertain costs, and declining employment participation rates are what we got, just as anyone with even one course of economics would predict.

  135. 1385

    By Rupert D @ 1377:

    RE: Erik @ 1376
    Greg=sfrz=pfft=same person.

    Clearly greg/pfft are the same person. I don’t get that feeling about sfrz. Slightly different style, where greg/pfft if not the same person, are identical twins and probably even dress alike.

  136. 1386

    By Erik @ 1369:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1341
    I don’t follow the food pyramid or whatever lies the main stream is pushing.

    Well good for you being cynical of at least something! I think you may have picked the wrong thing though not worrying about your blood vessels.

    https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2010/08/4434/cholesterol-levels-young-adults-predict-risk-future-heart-disease

    On the other hand, a sudden heart attack isn’t the worst way to die.

  137. 1387

    Here’s an interesting article on Redfin.

    https://www.geekwire.com/2018/id-like-make-least-nickel-shareholders-redfin-ceo-glenn-kelman-companys-future-goals/

    Most of it is about their earnings woes. But there’s also some interesting stuff about gender equality–not as much of an issue in the pure real estate side of their business, but it is on their tech side, to the extent they have a tech side.

  138. 1388

    RE: pfft @ 1314
    If Ya Want a Mercedes Pfft and Trump Keeps German Luxury Cars Out of America

    Buy a FCA Chrysler 300 for half the cost instead….it still sports a Mercedes 9 speed transmission too…

    Cadillacs and Lincolns and Lexus and Infinity, etc, etc sedans all look like dinky cheap Vegas anyway…

    Jaquar sells a luxury sized sedan like a Dodge Charger too…..3 times the cost….LOL

    Billionaire Buffet gave up and keeps his 2006 Cadillac….[BTW, have you seen this car? Beautiful and roomy]

  139. 1389

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1387
    Real Estate Earning Woes

    And low listings go hand in hand…

    My HOA has ZERO posted listings and its Summer….Zero out of 140 units….no one qualifies for a the low tier approximate $200-250K conventional type loan with down payment and banks know with Trump….no more bank bailouts and QEDs Obama handed out to create a phony economy….time to save folks. Its gotten much worse for real estate folks when their business pie gets this dinky sized.

  140. 1390

    Time for SWE’s MOM Investors Report for May 2018

    May 0.24% 0.73% 2.41% 4.85% (2.13%)
    YTD 1.13% (1.46%) 2.00% 5.26% (1.25%)
    Last 12 mo 2.48% (0.26%) 14.35% 18.55% 8.36%

    Long-term CDs, Long-term Bonds, American Stocks, Foreign Stocks, Foreign Stocks

    The trade war will destroy the world’s economy? Apparently not yet….foreign stocks look as good as American YOY. Interest rates UP, long-term bonds a loss….SWE’s safe zone retirement money gaining steam, already at a projected 4% YOY clip the last 5 months :-)

    My retirement money pile will last longer than I planned plenty safe….time to buy a new Jaguar with tarriffs, I can afford it….LOL…why should the estate get it all after I die???

  141. 1391

    By softwarengineer @ 1389:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1387
    Real Estate Earning Woes

    And low listings go hand in hand…

    Yes and no. The volume of sales is actually pretty decent. On the buyer side the problem is becoming part of the statistics–getting a closing. On the listing side it’s much easier.

    One of the issues Redfin has had over the years is switching from being buyer orientated to seller orientated, and visa versa. Some individual agents also have that problem, but due to Redfin’s size it might be a bit more due to inertia.

  142. 1392
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 1254:

    RE: Justme @ 1185

    Dear reader: Commenter “whatsmyname” demands that I produce better and more reliable numbers than the OFM population estimates, or else my well-founded and well-referenced exposition of the fallacy (that is, overestimation) of the OFM population estimates somehow is not appropriate. Apparently, it does not even help that OFM itself agrees with me, and that OFM is indeed the main source of the description of the severe limitations of their estimation methods, which in non-census years may be described as “if-it-is-built-it-is-filled”.

    You can all be the judge as to whether whatsmyname is being reasonable here. Which of the following is the reasonable alternative:

    1. I must accept the highly doubtful if-it-is-built-it-is-filled methodology, unless I can personally produce more accurate numbers than OFM. Perhaps I should conduct a full census on my own.

    2. I need not accept the OFM overestimation, and it is ok to point out the fallacies of the OFM numbers, including using references to my previous writings on the topic, so as to save work, and also to give the reader an indication that OFM numbers are repeatedly being misused by bubble propagandists.

    I find it not worth the trouble to have a “discussion” with whatsmyname. In the face of rampant dishonesty and trolling, better to use one’s energy to expose fallacies and propaganda for what it is.

    Ho, ho. The post to which you refer does not set up the false dichotomy that you insist upon here.

    It does point out several of the named assumptions in establishing how OFM methodology can overstate demand, and how some of those are the opposite of what we have experienced over the last 5 years. No response, or even acknowledgement of that. Now who’s being dishonest, Kaye?

  143. 1393
    N says:

    This article could read as being Seattle quite easily, zoning restrictions, can’t build high rises in most areas.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/02/business/economy/vancouver-housing.html

    About a fifth of local homeowners in a survey said they’d like to see prices fall by 30 percent or more.

    While the downtown area is typical of a big city, Vancouver’s zoning restrictions favor low-density living.

    “Unbeknownst to many people in the local population, Vancouver has been sold as a subsidized resort town and retirement community to the world,” said Josh Gordon, a political science professor at Simon Fraser University here. “We are now seeing the culmination of that dynamic.”

    What makes these gains so remarkable is that unlike Silicon Valley, London or New York — where the presence of high-paying tech and finance jobs helps explain housing costs — Vancouver has relatively low salaries. As part of their bid for Amazon’s second headquarters, Vancouver officials boasted about having “the lowest wages of all North American tech hubs.”

    he real estate industry contends that the issue is not an influx of Chinese, who have been coming to Vancouver for decades, but zoning restrictions that prioritize low-density living, outside of a few high-rise areas.

    “I live 15 minutes from the downtown core in a house,” said Keith Roy, a real estate agent. “That’s crazy. I should be in a townhouse at this distance, maybe even a low-rise condo building.”

  144. 1394

    RE: N @ 1393

    Fires and Earthquakes and TENTS, Oh My!

    Was looking for something else and happened on this about “tents”. Just an aside that I thought interesting, written after the Great Fire of 1889.

    https://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/CityArchive/DDL/GreatSeattleFire/1889Nov22.pdf

    Back to my point.

    There was a great fire in Seattle in 1889. Cities with density in and near the core are often brick structures with brick fire walls between attached structures.

    One can’t compare a City that does not build attached, residential housing with brick historically, due to earthquake activity, with all of those major Cities elsewhere that did.

    Most everything was rebuilt after the big fire and wanting space between structures vs attached housing like other cities that did not experience such a catastrophic fire, seems prudent in hindsight.

    I don’t hate Amazon or Bezos or growth of a highly paid workforce. But when you destroy the culture of a City. When you don’t even care about the culture of a City. When you simply want to spit in the face of history and claim change without regard to a City’s History and Culture, well, maybe all that growth should not have happened.

    At least be mindful of the past and not simply act as if the City never existed before it became a destination point for a specific field…that may wander away after the City is forever changed.

    I don’t trust companies who rent vs own here…renters are always more footloose and fancy free. Some do own. I trust those Companies more. Maybe changing for those that “bought into” the area is worth doing, mindfully and with caution. But changing the entire infrastructure and culture of a town for the renters? Hmmmmm

  145. 1395
    sfrz says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1394 – Excellent analysis Ardell.

  146. 1396

    Well, here’s a new argument on why the unemployment rate is not accurate. It’s near the end of the article and one I would never make–it doesn’t count people who are incarcerated! :-D

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/1/17417762/black-unemployment-rate-record-low-may-jobs-report

  147. 1397

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1396
    Correct Me If I’m Wrong Kary

    But last I heard the prisons contain 6% of America’s population…the worst prison % numbers in the world…

    Another interesting observation I had yesterday is a simple thing as loving your neighbor as yourself….since when do we have to pay our allies 100s of billions in trade deficits or they aren’t our friends anymore? I had friends like that recently too, they made me do all the driving and never visited me [especially when my severely autistic son was sent to a private family home]. They enjoyed my family overload difficulties and were horrified when I got free? They aren’t my friends anymore, age does give you wisdom….maybe we should just let the EU leave America as an ally and let them replace us with Russia….the EU suggested this yesterday over fair trade, I didn’t make it up.

  148. 1398

    I wish the NWMLS did a better analysis of new construction in their stats. It’s really very incomplete in that you don’t know how many lots remain available in a project, nor easily tell how far off each lot is from completion. So YOY comparisons are nearly meaningless.

    Also, not really something I follow, but I’ve noticed two builders which are trying to go more modern in their design/architecture. It makes the more traditional new stuff seem dated before completion, but I do wonder how they will stand the test of time. One of the two I already don’t care for.

  149. 1399

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1383:

    By Matt P @ 1379:

    I’m not making a NIMBY argument – I don’t agree with their reason for the moratorium, which is that it’s an eyesore – I’m making zoning argument. High density housing should be at the city center and low density farther out. This prevents congestion caused by too many people traveling too far to work. Instead, we have too many people who either want to live far out but don’t want to pay for a house or too many who want to live close but don’t want to live in an apartment and thus we have a traffic nightmare.

    Well, maybe it is NIMBY, maybe it isn’t. But there’s a lot of prejudice against apartment everywhere. But you’re also making an argument for better transportation systems, something Seattle delayed doing again and again over the decades. Lots of studies, little action, and that contributes to the mess (and the increased cost as property values rise faster than inflation).

    Off the top of my head, I’m not sure the Growth Management Act would even allow Issaquah to not have sufficient area for multi-family, but I don’t really study that act. What I’m thinking though is that it probably is designed so that local governments have to deal with growth on a regional basis.

    The more I think about this issue the more conflicted I become. One the one hand I can see the need to handle growth and the benefits of reducing sprawl. But on the other hand, I can see why people would want their existing neighborhoods preserved. To accomplish that I could even support some downzoning, such as maybe restricting the size of new houses or remodels in Wallingford to maintain the existing character.

    I still like the idea of allowing multi-family near major roads, such as 85th in North Seattle. Those larger buildings would even be a noise barrier for the houses behind, although being next to one of those buildings would not be ideal for other reasons.

  150. 1400

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1399
    The Worse Curse I Saw in Seattle the Last 50 Years

    Is the Californians coming up here in the 80s and 90s to mow all our trees down and take over our local government for uncontrolled overpopulation without building zones and proper coding for handling overpopulation. It was a HORRIFYING mess on our freeways in 1970 [I was there] with about 1/2 or 1/3 the population, how can we count it all now…..its mixed undocumented immigrants…..its a psychotic mess now….

  151. 1401
    wreckingbull says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1398:

    Also, not really something I follow, but I’ve noticed two builders which are trying to go more modern in their design/architecture. It makes the more traditional new stuff seem dated before completion, but I do wonder how they will stand the test of time. One of the two I already don’t care for.

    My concern about this boxy, modern design you see in almost all new Seattle construction is zero roof overhang. As someone who lives in a 132 year old house, I can assure you that its traditional roofline and generous eaves have helped it live this long. I fear the owners of these homes are going to learn the ins and outs of moisture intrusion issues.

    Our windy, wet winters can be unforgiving.

  152. 1402

    By wreckingbull @ 1401:

    My concern about this boxy, modern design you see in almost all new Seattle construction is zero roof overhang. As someone who lives in a 132 year old house, I can assure you that its traditional roofline and generous eaves have helped it live this long. I fear the owners of these homes are going to learn the ins and outs of moisture intrusion issues.

    Our windy, wet winters can be unforgiving.

    I agree with you, but that’s not necessarily a new thing–I’ve seen older homes (e.g. 1950s) with sloped roofs have a minimal overhang, maybe 6-12″.

    The overhang on my house is 3′ out for the siding/glass, but part of the thinking behind that that might have been for golf ball protection????

  153. 1403
    pfft says:

    By Bubble Trouble @ 1264:

    By pfft @ 1253:

    By Bubble Trouble @ 1251:

    By softwarengineer @ 1238:

    The Seattle Areas’ Biggest Employer Now Has Robot Replacements for Employees

    Service jobs at burger flipper joints:

    http://www.fox5ny.com/news/robot-chef-cooks-300-burgers-a-day#/

    Hades, even giving ’em $25/hr won’t stop the robots….it will speed robots up.

    Anyone with even a week’s worth of Econ 101 could have predicted this would happen. As could anyone who has ever had to meet a payroll. It’s simple. Business owners have 2 options…hire a humn or buy a machine. When it’s cheaper to hire humans, they hire humans. When it’s cheaper to buy a machine, they buy a machine. At $8/hr burger flippers are cheaper. At $15/hr machines are cheaper. Plus as an added bonus machines never call in sick, don’t spit in customers’ food and don’t steal.

    It’s so simple a caveman understands it, but no Democrat seems to understand it.

    and dozens of studies have shown that a higher minimum wage does not lead to job loses. what about that don’t you understand?

    “Plus as an added bonus machines never call in sick, don’t spit in customers’ food and don’t steal.”

    machines never break down? what happens if the power goes out?

    LOL. That’s the argument you have? What if the power goes out? Gee I dunno…you turn on the generator? I can tell you’ve never run a lemonade stand let alone an actual business. I’d bet if I offered you $1000 you couldn’t change a tire. AmIrite?

    actually I had a few you didn’t address. Not all businesses have a generator. it could be damaged and etc. but you know that because…you have a computer?

    “I’d bet if I offered you $1000 you couldn’t change a tire.”

    yeah, I’d contract that out at $100 bucks and pocket the rest…sucker!

  154. 1404
    Greg says:

    RE: Justme @ 1281

    MSFT has been paying a head tax to Redmond for many years. I think it is about 250 a head, I can’t recall if the top of my head the exact number.
    MS made noise then continued to invest billions in local infrastructure anyway.

  155. 1405
    pfft says:

    By David @ 1331:

    3.8% unemployment. The Trump Renaissance is amazing.

    But can it sustain growth if no one exists to hire?

    LOL. his job growth numbers are lower than Obama’s last year in office.

    Trump’s trade war is likely going to kill hundreds of thousands of jobs
    http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-steel-aluminum-tariffs-on-canada-europe-mexico-will-hurt-us-jobs-2018-6

    But Trump said trade wars are easy to win and we know how true everything is that Trump says.

  156. 1406
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1339:

    RE: pfft/greg @ 1313
    I don’t like Trump or many of his policies, but unlike Obama he does have a clue about how to negotiate.

    Not that I can see. Obama passed the ACA and Dodd-Frank. Trump fooled you guys. New Yorkers have known for years he’s a clown. the guy is a joke in New York. That’s why he didn’t win Queens, Manhattan or New York State. Nobody in NY will loan him money!

    North Korea is playing him for a complete and utter fool as is Michael Avenatti.

  157. 1407
    pfft says:

    Remember when Trump there were 90 million people unemployed, that the employment numbers were pure fiction AND the unemployment rate might to as high as 40%?

    19 times Trump called jobs numbers ‘fake’ before they made him look good
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/03/10/19-times-trump-called-the-jobs-numbers-fake-before-they-made-him-look-good/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.2ed9a5507415

    Donald Trump says U.S. has 93 million people ‘out of work,’ but that’s way too high
    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/aug/31/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-us-has-93-milion-people-out-work/

    Donald Trump says the unemployment rate may be 42 percent
    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/sep/30/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-unemployment-rate-may-be-42-perc/

  158. 1408
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: pfft @ 1405 – You use the ACA as an example of good negotiation? Do you have any idea how the ACA passed? Even its architect, Jonathan Gruber, admitted it was a scam rammed down the throats of the American people. At least remove it from your talking points, as clinging to that turd only makes you stink.

  159. 1409
    pedaltothemetal says:

    The ideal Seattle homeowner…

    1) Looking to buy near a homeless encampment.
    2) Would like to send children to poorly ranked public schools.
    3) Enjoys endless sea of traffic.
    4) Sense of pride in being the new age Walmart corporate town.
    5) Indentured servant who can get enough of the Jeff Bezos micro penis.

  160. 1410
    pedaltothemetal says:

    The ideal Seattle home seller…

    People who don’t fall into the categories above.

  161. 1411
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: Greg @ 1403 – I already covered this way up above. The City of Redmond FTE fee has gone up to $112 per FTE in 2018. The city DOES NOT charge business and occupation (B&O) taxes.
    http://www.redmond.gov/business/businesslicensing/
    http://www.redmond.gov/business/BusinessLicensing/FAQs/

  162. 1412
    David says:

    Obama NEVER talked about jobs or the economy. He avoided the topic at all costs. Why? Obama had no idea what he was doing and ABSOLUTELY no idea how to create jobs. Obama was so confused and unintelligent that he thought even if you created a job that you actually didn’t make that job -or business. Obama was just an ethnic check mark.

    What Obama did do was encourage constant celebrations of white people dying. Blatant ethnic cleansing murmuring that he and his ilk brought on. Lest we forget – Obama hired a portrait painter who specialized in black women beheading white women.

    Only flaccid, limp minded individuals like you refuse to accept what Obama was.

    By pfft @ 1406:

    Remember when Trump there were 90 million people unemployed, that the employment numbers were pure fiction AND the unemployment rate might to as high as 40%?

    19 times Trump called jobs numbers ‘fake’ before they made him look good
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/03/10/19-times-trump-called-the-jobs-numbers-fake-before-they-made-him-look-good/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.2ed9a550741

    Donald Trump says U.S. has 93 million people ‘out of work,’ but that’s way too high
    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/aug/31/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-us-has-93-milion-people-out-work/

    Donald Trump says the unemployment rate may be 42 percent
    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/sep/30/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-unemployment-rate-may-be-42-perc/

  163. 1413
    pfft says:

    By wreckingbull @ 1407:

    RE: pfft @ 1405 – You use the ACA as an example of good negotiation? Do you have any idea how the ACA passed? Even its architect, Jonathan Gruber, admitted it was a scam rammed down the throats of the American people. At least remove it from your talking points, as clinging to that turd only makes you stink.

    are you serious? Gruber already explained his comments. The ACA saves thousands, maybe even tens of thousands of lives a year. The uninsured rate plunged. It’s so popular the Republican controlled Congress couldn’t even overturn it. If it’s bad it’s because it’s a Republican plan originally(google it) and universal healthcare would be better.

    The Republican alternative would have left 10 million uninsured. Try supporting that!

    This isn’t a hard problem. People need insurance. That isn’t hard to grasp.

  164. 1414
    First Time Buyer says:

    What would be the average cost of updating kitchen, bathrooms, closets and doors for a 2000 sqft home?

  165. 1415

    By wreckingbull @ 1407:

    RE: pfft @ 1405 – You use the ACA as an example of good negotiation? Do you have any idea how the ACA passed? Even its architect, Jonathan Gruber, admitted it was a scam rammed down the throats of the American people. At least remove it from your talking points, as clinging to that turd only makes you stink.

    More to the point, Obama was very hands-off on that. I’ve commented before that it’s ironic that it’s called Obamacare because he really didn’t have much to do with what it looked like. Obama just wanted something passed and didn’t provide much if any guidance as to how the bill would be structured.

  166. 1416

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 1410 – Thank you for looking that up regarding Redmond taxation. I don’t know how you would calculate B&O for there large companies, but it could result in a very large number.

  167. 1417
    Anonymous Coward says:

    By First Time Buyer @ 1412:

    What would be the average cost of updating kitchen, bathrooms, closets and doors for a 2000 sqft home?

    It depends on how old the existing systems are. If the electrical is knob and tube, the supply plumbing galvanized pipe, with cast iron drain pipes, it’s going to involve replacing all those systems before you get started on the stuff you see. Second question is are you going to want to change the lay-out (moving walls, moving fixtures, adding fixtures, etc, etc)? Third question is, are you going to do any of it yourself or are you hiring it done? My SWAG (assuming the basic systems are up to snuff and you’re not making any major layout changes, but are hiring it out) would be $20k/bathroom and $60k for the kitchen.

  168. 1418
    Blake says:

    RE: David @ 1412
    David wrote: “Obama NEVER talked about jobs or the economy. ”

    You are a frickin’ MORON! What kind of an idiot could believe that Obama NEVER talked about jobs OR the economy!?

    David also wrote: “What Obama did do was encourage constant celebrations of white people dying.”

    … and you are also a despicable human being.

    Nowadays it seems that being a MORON and being a despicable human goes hand-in-hand.

    David… Trump supporter… blithering idiot. What a surprise.

  169. 1419
    pfft says:

    By Blake @ 1418:

    RE: David @ 1412
    David wrote: “Obama NEVER talked about jobs or the economy. ”

    You are a frickin’ MORON! What kind of an idiot could believe that Obama NEVER talked about jobs OR the economy!?

    David also wrote: “What Obama did do was encourage constant celebrations of white people dying.”

    … and you are also a despicable human being.

    Nowadays it seems that being a MORON and being a despicable human goes hand-in-hand.

    David… Trump supporter… blithering idiot. What a surprise.

    word. it’s like david leaves himself logged in and sometimes a child posts for him…

    scoreboard david, obama created over 10 million jobs. you mad bro?

  170. 1420
    Erik says:

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1414
    $48,435.67

  171. 1421
    S-Crow says:

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1414 – Depending upon what specifically is upgraded within the kitchen, interior doors/millwork & paint: cost me about $22K. Kitchen cabinets locally built by Canyon Creek in Monroe. Interior Doors are all solid Craftsmen Style white painted with Benjamin Moore Mayonnaise Color (OC-85) with Pearl finish (Alkyd) and solid Nickel hardware by Schlage. My kids beat the crap out of the doors and they wash to near new finish (ie, why I went with Alkyd and not Water based). Doors purchased at Franks Lumber.

    Total DIY

    ;)

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