Case-Shiller: Seattle was the only market to see price declines between June and July

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to July data that was released today, Seattle-area home prices were:

Down less than 0.1 percent June to July
Up 12.1 percent YOY.
Up 34.7 percent from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were up 0.7 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 13.5 percent.

Each month from February through May, Seattle had the biggest month-over-month gains of all twenty Case-Shiller markets. In June the rank fell to #8, and in July it dropped all the way to the bottom at #20. However, Seattle still has the second-highest year-over-year price growth. The only metro area with higher price growth from a year earlier in July was Las Vegas at 13.7 percent.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Here’s how the month-over-month price changes looked for all twenty markets:

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Seattle’s year-over-year price growth is falling. From September 2016 through May 2018 our market had the largest gains, but for the last two months Las Vegas has been on top.

Eleven metro areas hit new all-time highs in July: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Minneapolis, Charlotte, Cleveland, Portland, and Dallas.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through July.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the 132 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 34.7 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Here’s the Seattle Times’ story about this month’s numbers: As Seattle home prices dip, outer reaches of metro area are humming along

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-09-25)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.