Case-Shiller Tiers: Low tier home prices edged up in July as mid and high tiers slipped

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $410,654 (up 0.5%)
  • Mid Tier: $410,654 – $660,032
  • Hi Tier: > $660,032 (up 0.05%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through July 2018.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Only the low tier was up month-over-month once more in July. The middle tier and high tier both fell.

Between June and July, the low tier increased 0.6 percent, the middle tier fell 0.1 percent, and the high tier dropped 0.2 percent.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through July 2018.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Year-over-year price growth was down compared to June in all three tiers, but they were all still in double-digit territory. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of July – Low: +16.0 percent, Med: +11.9 percent, Hi: +10.6 percent.

Lastly, here’s a change-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday for the various Case-Shiller markets, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 28.3 percent above the 2007 peak for the low tier, 31.8 percent above for the middle tier, and 34.7 percent above for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-09-25)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.