NWMLS: Home prices back in black, snow storm freezes out pending sales

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I’ve gotten way behind recently as life and other projects have gotten busy, and I apologize.

Let’s play some catchup and take a look at February market stats from the NWMLS. The King County median price of single-family homes was basically flat year-over-year in February, inventory was way up from a year ago but not by as much as it has been, and pending sales slipped thanks to the nasty weather.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Heavy Snowfall Ices February Housing Activity Around Western Washington
Seattle’s snowiest month in 50 years had an obvious chilling effect on February’s housing activity, agreed officials with Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Statistics for last month show pending sales dropped nearly 14 percent compared to the same month a year ago.

“The winter weather brought the market to a halt,” stated John Deely, principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain. He said last month’s series of snowstorms and frigid temperatures had a negative impact on the typical momentum that builds at the beginning of the year.

For once the used home salespeople actually have a good excuse. The once-a-decade snow storm in February definitely caused an unusual decline in the pending sales numbers. That will probably carry forward to March closed sales numbers.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

February 2019 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 2,850 +1.1% +109.7%
Closed Sales 1,417 +15.8% +1.0%
SAAS (?) 1.07 -8.5% -6.5%
Pending Sales 1,790 -6.0% -5.5%
Months of Supply 2.01 -12.7% +107.6%
Median Price* $655,000 +7.4% +0.8%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory was basically flat January to February, but thanks to the big gains in 2018 it was up 110 percent from last year. Sales seem to be starting to bounce back so I’m not sure we’ll see another year of big inventory gains in 2019. I hope we do.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings fell between January and February, and was down six percent from a year ago. I imagine that might be due to the snow storm as well. Hopefully we see the typical big spike in the March numbers.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales rose 16 percent between January and February, and turned in their first year-over-year gain since April 2018.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales fell six percent month-over-month and five percent year-over-year, but again that was probably mostly due to the two-week snow storm.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

It looks like the peak growth in inventory might be behind us now.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

I did say last month that “I doubt we’ll see this continue to fall.” And sure enough, it ticked back into the black in February.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

February 2019: $655,000
February 2018: $649,950
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: Market turnaround? King County home prices take biggest one-month jump ever

And here’s another good recent article from the Seattle Times that’s worth a read: With King County home prices picking up, are we in for another brutal spring for buyers? Maybe not

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

325 comments:

  1. 251
    Redon says:

    Hahahahahah review date! Joke of 2019!

  2. 252
    Blurtman says:

    Rut-roh.

    The lawyers who took on Big Tobacco are aiming at Realtors and their 6% fee

    One real estate observer calls NAR’s blueprint an “organic monopoly”

    “The conspiracy has saddled home sellers with a cost that would be borne by the buyer in a competitive market,” the lawsuit says. “Moreover, because most buyer brokers will not show homes to their clients where the seller is offering a lower buyer broker commission, or will show homes with higher commission offers first, sellers are incentivized when making the required blanket, non-negotiable offer to procure the buyer brokers’ cooperation by offering a high commission.”

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-name-lawsuit-could-upend-realtors-and-their-6-fee-2019-03-19

  3. 253
    ess says:

    Some say housing is so expensive – no one can buy a residence Turns out – some people can still afford a nice condo in town…….. just depends who you know.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/12-million-belltown-penthouse-used-as-a-second-home-is-regions-priciest-condo-sale-ever/

  4. 254

    Have You Cashed Your 2018 Federal Income Tax Reduction in Yet?

    80% of Americans paid lower federal income taxes under Trump:

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/treasury-grants-further-relief-irs-160708825.html

    $CASH$ for Seattle area spring home improvements? My IRS federal tax refund went up 243%; so if your’s didn’t, strangle your human relations dept for under estimating your taxes?…LOL…what a bunch of village idiot accountants.

  5. 255

    RE: ess @ 253
    Or What They’ll Give Up to Buy

  6. 256

    I Saw the Real Estate Listing Sign Saturday at Glen Brook Kent WA Housing Development

    Folks have been asking for a listing URL….I can’t find one for Glenbrook modulars….LOL

    That open house was cancelled or grabbed up fast. I did get an E. Kent Hill listing on a 3 bdrm for $370K a few days ago, but it was brick [earthquake problem?]…if it was phony brick its OK, but this was likely too old for phony brick.

  7. 257
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 241:

    You lost me on the first part. Of course to have access to “the mls” you have to be a member OF “the mls”.

    The problem is MLS will dictate how Zillow runs its business as a member. Stock exchanges do not tell WSJ and others how to run their businesses in order to have access to stock quotes.

  8. 258
    Justme says:

    RE: ess @ 253

    You are back again, one day after getting busted for posting a whopping propaganda lie that exaggerated the Puget Sound 4-county population increase in year 2016 by a factor of 5.6X (15,905 exaggerated to 86,000) . Should you not apologize and otherwise just be just quietly ashamed of yourself?

  9. 259
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 258:

    RE: ess @ 253

    You are back again, one day after getting busted for posting a propaganda lie that exaggerated the Puget Sound 5-county population increase in year 2016 by a factor of 5.6X (15,905 exaggereted to 86,000) . Should you not apologize and otherwise just be just quietly ashamed of yourself?

    1. The FRED results are based on a minimum of 3 years results on survey responses from the American Community survey. Ever been in that survey, or even heard of it? Me neither. Other than providing the numbers you prefer, I am not sure how it has a superior methodology or more timely numbers than other government agencies like the OFM.

    2. You are representing one estimate of net migration as the totality of population growth whereas FRED also includes natural increase (births over deaths). Here is their tracking of resident population for King County. It is increasing about 35,000 per year in 2016 and 2017. I am sure you could easily find the other 3 counties as well. (You can find this via the link you provided)

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WAKING5POP

    3. You’ve been busted claiming Deerhawke’s construction doubled the price of surrounding existing houses, and venting that you’ve been fighting people denying this new “bubble” since 2012. You posted here in 2015 that houses structurally couldn’t go much higher, and the decline was imminent. Mr. Pot, where is your shame?

  10. 260
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 259

    Bubble-mongers sometime are almost a parody of themselves. Bubble-busters nevertheless need to take them to task.

    Monger1: Look at those population increase numbers from someone at the Puget Sound Regional Council: 86,000 in 2016!!

    Buster: The net migration to PS area (4-county) in 2016 was 15,905, based on US Census ACS survey.

    Monger2: That’s only migration, you did not count births-deaths! My census data (Ed: based on ACS survey and and birth-death stats) say about 35k. And ACS is bad!

    Buster: Uh, dude, children do not buy houses. And dead people free up housing. Check back when these kids are older. We should have some good full Census number from 2020 and 2030 in the meanwhile. Oh, and you just used ACS yourself.

    Monger2: Also, I’m unsure that OFM (Ed:Filled-If-Built methodology) is less accurate than US Census ACS.

    Buster: Counting large numbers of newly built empty apartments and condos (and some houses even) as being occupied, and then adding these numbers to the population estimates is a horrific methodology, *especially* when there is a high vacancy rate such as 10.5% in Seattle City (Jan 2019). At least the ACS does a proper survey. The OFM discrepancy will be clear from the 2020 census.

    That’s how it goes, folks. Bubble-mongers are as bubble-mongers do.

  11. 261
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 260 – Population growth is population growth, not net migration. If you have to abandon the English language to misrepresent a defined term as something else, it is clearly you that is the propagandist.

    The 2020 census is going to pick up the full population gain, not just the net migration gain. You can’t recognize apples to apples even when pointed out to you.

    Pathetic.

  12. 262
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 261

    What’s pathetic is that even the 35k number is nevertheless exaggerated by 2.46X into the 86,000 number.

  13. 263
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 262:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 261

    Whats pathetic is that even the 35k number is nevertheless exaggerated by 2.46X into the 86,000 number.

    The 35k number is King County only, (over 5X your claim for King County, and more than 2X the number you claim for all of the metro). You need to add the other 3 counties to make a valid comparison. You are much further off than ess – even by your own source. You should apologize to him.

  14. 264

    RE: whatsmyname @ 259

    In my experience home prices rising have more to do with hiring practices of the major tech companies than migration and net migration

    I usually just watch you guys “talk” about these things. But the bubbles have occurred when certain companies hired 1,000 people all at once. Not always the same company doing that.

    Some of the people are local and can now buy vs rent with their newly acquired high salary. Some are from other States and some are from Out of Country. But the rate at which new jobs with high pay are being offered has more to do with the bubbles than merely migration stats.

    When I’m showing houses during that time it’s not uncommon to see 60 cards on the table in two days and for my clients to know most all of the other buyers in the room at the same time as us. If a Company hires even 200 people this month, they often create a temporary price bubble near that workplace.

    Just worth mentioning. You can go back to arguing now. :)

  15. 265
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 264 – Thanks, Ardell. Makes sense, and it is always interesting to hear insights from someone closer to the actual market.

  16. 266
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 264 – Could be observational bias. Probably more unlikely that folks will tell you they are immigrants than that they are working for Amazon.

  17. 267

    RE: Blurtman @ 266

    I think you misunderstood what I said. I am not talking present tense but rather back in the days of the highest number of offers and bid ups that were feeding the bubble. I was talking about 60 actual showings, not people wandering in to Open Houses. I was talking about being with a client of mine, showing the house, and I know where my clients work. I was talking about my client saying hello to several other buyers in the house at the same time (not an Open House) with their agents and my clients telling me that they work with those people and they were hired at the same time as my client.

    I don’t think there is any “observational bias” there and not sure why you singled out “immigrants”.

    One of the oddest experiences I had was when I took my client to an ethnic restaurant of his ethnicity upon his first arrival to the area for his new job. I thought it would be nice to introduce him to the best restaurant here for the type of food he liked to eat. Someone came over and they were great friends and I asked if they worked together. The answer was yes, but not for the same Company here but rather for the same Company in their home town in another Country. Seemed like an odd coincidence as they were totally surprised to run into each other here, in this Country.

    It seems you are talking about the chatterings of an Open House where many of the people in the Open House are not real ready, willing and able buyers. If a buyer is working with an agent, the agent usually knows where they work.

  18. 268

    RE: Justme @ 258
    There’s Been Lots of Bad Information/Investigations Proved Wrong Today

    Its the American way…LOL…the bureaucratic attorneys blindly lead us all astray?

  19. 269

    RE: whatsmyname @ 259
    I’m Sure Keeping My House Maintained Right Helps Keep Prices Up Too

    But there’s plenty of foreclosures all over bringing prices down too..

  20. 270
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 267 – Hi Ardell,
    You had said:

    “In my experience home prices rising have more to do with hiring practices of the major tech companies than migration and net migration.”

    As immigration is one type of migration, your possible inability to discern immigrant home buyers may therefore result in a conclusion based upon observational bias. That is, immigration may also contribute to a local bubble. One of thebposts provided a link to stats that ranked immigration from Asia as a top contributor to population inflows. Thankfully, they didn’t use the term “Orient” but by failing to report on immigration from India, a bit of an imprecise data point.

    You may recall passed biased posts whereby the poster failed to discern Asian American buyers from recent Asian immigrant buyers. Unless the immigrant self-identifies as such, you can’t really know. Hence the observational bias. Not saying your observation is incorrect, just that you are not able to see all contributong factors.

  21. 271
    Justsomedude12 says:

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-real-estate-exec-says-bellevue-plan-not-affected-by-new-york-exit/

    From the article:

    Amazon’s top real estate executive said the employment growth the company had planned for New York is not slated for Bellevue.

    Schoettler, who has orchestrated Amazon’s dramatic real estate expansion since 2001, said the job growth planned for New York will be dispersed across “about 17 other cities throughout the Americas.”

  22. 272

    RE: Blurtman @ 270

    In the instant case I was noting I did know that of my client and my client did know that of the people they greeted inside.

    But generally…no one knows ALL factors. That does not preclude gathering as much data and information as possible in order to make wise choices.

    I don’t like to refer to “immigrants” or single them out as to me they are just among a group of people who have been hired at a local company. Many of the “immigrants” came from the Bay Area or Colorado or other places where they were first employed when leaving their home Country. Do you still call them immigrants if they are coming from Chicago?

  23. 273
    sfrz says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 272 – You know what he means. Don’t feign ignorance. H1b’s. You are on the Eastside. You know very well what that is. There are a gazillion over here.

  24. 274
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 272 – C’mon, sell to an illegal, pocket the commission, turn him into ICE, he gets deported, home back on market, sell to illegal immigrant, pocket the commission, turn him into ICE, …..

    The Churn: Chapter 23 of the NAR issued Advanced Realtor Sales Techniques. (And I know you ain’t a Realtor(TM).) ;>))

  25. 275
    Matt P says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 272 – No one stops being an immigrant just because they moved cities. It’s a pretty simple delineation: those who are born here are not immigrants and those who are not born here are immigrants.

  26. 276
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Matt P @ 275

    My two pesos on the topic is Thank God for Immigrants especially those who want to invest in buying a house here. Immigrants are what keep making America great generation after generation. The ones who constantly whine about immigrants are the ones who take everything for granted and have an entitlement mentality. They could be our next great export– if we could just get someone to take them.

  27. 277
    Deerhawke says:

    Back to the topic of Puget Sound real estate, it looks to me like inventory has been mainly flatlining this year. The more I look at the numbers, the more it looks like deja vu– 2015 all over again.

    The Tim said “Hopefully we’ll see the typical big spike in the March numbers (of new listings.)

    Have we missed out on that spike in new listings? Or are listings checking through almost as quickly as they are coming on?

  28. 278
    Matt P says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 276 – I have nothing against immigrants, my wife is one albeit now a US citizen. I was merely pointing who is and who is not since Ardell was quibbling about them.

  29. 279
    Matt P says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 277 – Justme’s charts show this year’s March inventory rising at about the same trajectory as last year.

  30. 280
    uwp says:

    By Matt P @ 279:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 277 – Justme’s charts show this year’s March inventory rising at about the same trajectory as last year.

    Depends on how you define “trajectory.”

    This Year:
    Monday 3/25/19 total SFH listings are 15% higher than a month ago (Monday 2/25/19).

    Last year:
    Monday 3/26/18 total SFH listings were 32% higher than the previous month (Monday 2/26/18).

    A dutiful reminder that early 2018 was ALL TIME LOWS for inventory. There was nowhere to go but up.

  31. 281
    QA Observer says:

    Wouldn’t it be fascinating to see all those Million Dollar Listing (show) agents have to get second jobs to make ends meet?

    That show cannot be real life. It should be illegal to make 6% commission on homes like those, actually any home for that matter. Vote for Flat Fee!

    That is my two cents that no cares about, but that type of money is absurd.

  32. 282
    Matt P says:

    RE: uwp @ 280 – Yes, talking about absolute terms. If we continue to grow at the rate numbers wise and not % as last year, we’ll pass last year’s max from Sept some time around July, then hit a max of about 2k more than last year. That’s just from me eyeballing the charts though. Oh and SFH only. Condo inventory is higher than last year but not growing as fast as SFH.

  33. 283

    RE: QA Observer @ 281

    Not sure why people assume things. I just checked. 75% of the homes sold for $2 Million or more did NOT offer that 3% everyone is assuming. Negotiations of the offering between the buyer and their agent do not show. So even the 25% that did offer it could have been negotiated on the buyer side.

    The #1 Agent I knew when I worked “million dollar listing” area in The South Bay of CA charged 1% Listing Fee.

    Why to people always assume they know something that they don’t?

  34. 284
    Don says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 283

    Hard to get your favorite rants to gel if you can’t make convenient assumptions…

  35. 285
    redmondjp says:

    By Deerhawke @ 276:

    RE: Matt P @ 275

    My two pesos on the topic is Thank God for Immigrants especially those who want to invest in buying a house here. Immigrants are what keep making America great generation after generation. The ones who constantly whine about immigrants are the ones who take everything for granted and have an entitlement mentality. They could be our next great export– if we could just get someone to take them.

    You mean extremely rich immigrants that can afford to move halfway around the world and buy your new homes here. I am surrounded by such people. The lack of economic diversity is staggering. Plus most of them don’t even know which end of a hammer to pick up (not that they would ever need to).

  36. 286
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Matt P @ 279

    I don’t really spend any time on anything posted by Justme for the same reason I don’t ever read anything posted by SWE or David. Too much ideological garbage and self-serving spin to wade through in order to find the random occasional fact or interesting perspective. I realize that sounds uncharitable, but there is little to be learned from zealots that does not require even more filtering and unlearning.

  37. 287
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 285

    The East Side has always been lacking diversity— that was the whole point of people leaving Seattle and moving there, especially after the ‘68 riots. And I suppose it is that very lack of diversity that attracted the immigrants you now find an issue. It is certainly much more ethnically and racially diverse than when I first moved to Seattle in the early 90’s.

    And it is not just immigrants who do not know which end of a hammer to pick up. It is this whole next generation including my own kids.

  38. 288
    Whitechoco says:

    30 year mortgage par quote of 3.75% today. The fed will keep the punch bowl going. Anyone who purchased in the past 12 months can refi into a lower payment. Low rates caused this run up and prices, and lower rates will keep it running.

  39. 289
    Whitechoco says:

    It was higher mortgage rates 9 months ago that caused the slow down in prices. Rates are now lower than a year ago.

  40. 290
    ess says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 287

    And it is not just immigrants who do not know which end of a hammer to pick up. It is this whole next generation including my own kids.

    ———————————————————————————————————————————-

    If one is going to be a mom and pop landlord, one must learn not only which end a hammer is to be used, but a host of other skills. If not, it will cost a great deal to operate a rental property, especially in this economy. And the great thing is that not only can one learn a good many skills by attempting those projects, but one also obtains a great deal of satisfaction when the job is successful. The culmination was taking four months to remodel a rental house that we then moved into, that job turned out very nice.

    And with the advent of “how to” videos on YouTube – my skill set has also increased.

  41. 291

    RE: softwarengineer @ 256
    Here’s a Listing for a Completely Destroyed Home in SF

    $1,000,000 Folks and I didn’t make it up either:

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/san-francisco-real-estate-market-crazy-163008223.html

    Looks like there was a kitchen fire [brewing Crack Chemicals?] from the fire marks on the 1917 electric stove and destroyed baseboard floor…I love the huge rot hole in the ceiling to greet you at the entrance door…..the place inside looks like a Crack Lab. The outside of it looks OK…LOL

  42. 292
    Coconut says:

    is this site still being maintained by the Tim or is it pretty much on auto pilot?

  43. 293
    uwp says:

    By Coconut @ 292:

    is this site still being maintained by the Tim or is it pretty much on auto pilot?

    He still posts a couple times a month!

    If you don’t like it, you can ask for a refund ;)

  44. 294

    RE: sfrz @ 273
    And They Bring Unlimited Chain Migration With Them

    I noticed the Covington Elementary School was recently rebuilt….its as big as a high school….since American birthrate is 1.7 [depopulation, without immigration]…the kids are coming in giant hoards to fill these high school sized elementary schools…no wonder the property taxes in Seattle are mortgage payment sized…

    Ya don’t need Fake News, just drive around and open your eyes…Seattle RE owners/renters are being milked [in property taxes and high rents, etc] so Gates gets his foreign “subpar skilled” H-1Bs from overpopulated foreign Hades Holes, replacing our NW legal citizen high school kids for peanut wages and clogging our infrastructures and more “rinsed” sewage overpopulations pouring into Puget Sound killing off the Orcas baby whales. It costs about $10K/student/yr in federal taxes to school ’em too….it all adds up to a fortune. We simply can’t afford these drains on resources and salmon/Orcas killing sewage ecology anymore. The New Green Deal isn’t just guesses on the future…its lead in Michigan’s tap water, dead Orcas babies and complete dead spots in the oceans and seas today because of toxins drainage….

  45. 295

    RE: uwp @ 293
    The Tim is a Very Busy Man

    Hey, just taking care of “me” 7/24s is a full-time job when you’re retired…well worth $50-100K/yr if a care giver and/or other assistant did it for me. You’ll find that out too when ya retire….all those personal/official duties during business hours on weekdays don’t go away after retirement. Ya bring ’em home with you…and if you are planning on less administration on retirement, the agency phone calls and pass word updates go on and on….LOL, boy are you in for a surprise…you won’t be bored, LOL. Set up your home office when ya retire, the fun goes on and on…

  46. 296
    ess says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 291

    Great article SWE – thanks for posting.

    What does SF have that has made housing prices sky high? Limited land for development, lots of single family areas and lots of tech jobs.

    What does Seattle have that could force housing prices sky high? Limited land for development, lots of single family areas, and lots of tech jobs.

    Will Seattle become another SF? Property owners can only hope, buyers and renters can only despair!!

  47. 297

    Amazon Replacing All Its Workers Soon?

    http://roboticsandautomationnews.com/2019/03/26/50000-warehouses-to-use-4-million-robots-by-2025-says-report/21545/

    Warehouse work is perfect for automation, loose margins of error and repetitive mind numbing work..

  48. 298
    Eastsider says:

    Case-Shiller just released its January report. Seattle January NSA index dropped .3% M/M and gained 4.1% Y/Y. I still expect Y/Y to become negative before May.

  49. 299

    RE: ess @ 296
    Its the Worst $1M House I’ve Ever Seen Listed

    Its a complete joke. Maybe when the mass smoke air pollution N. CA wild fires start up again this Summer that $1M shack will burn down…let’s hope, LOL…

  50. 300

    RE: ess @ 296
    Yeah…$20/hr Average Seattle/NYC/KC per capita wage is a Joke for SF…just fine for low cost Kansas City….SEA/SF high tech employs almost no engineers, they don’t need them. Manufacturing needs engineers.

  51. 301
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 298:

    Case-Shiller just released its January report. Seattle January NSA index dropped .3% M/M and gained 4.1% Y/Y. I still expect Y/Y to become negative before May.

    Yeah. I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns negative Y/Y right as it turns positive M/M.

  52. 302
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Matt P @ 282

    I don’t know know what charts you are looking at.

    If you look at The Tim’s chart of inventory taken from MLS stats and plug in the Estately figure for today of 2794, we are down a couple of percent. If you plug in the Redfin figure for today of 3205, we are up about 12%, but remember that includes townhouses, rowhouses, etc.

    The problem is that the number normally published as the standard by the MLS is usually right in the middle, between the Estately and the Redifin numbers. Split the difference and you arrive at around 3000 so inventory is up by about 150 units. OK, 5% is not insignificant, but looks kind of flattish to me for the spring market when there is always supposed to be a real bump in inventory.

    Ardell, you have access to the MLS figures. Your thoughts?

  53. 303
    uwp says:

    By Deerhawke @ 302:

    RE: Matt P @ 282

    I don’t know know what charts you are looking at.

    If you look at The Tim’s chart of inventory taken from MLS stats and plug in the Estately figure for today of 2794, we down a couple of percent. If you plug in the Redfin figure for today of 3205, we are up about 12%, but remember that includes townhouses, rowhouses, etc.

    You don’t understand Deerhawke.
    You choose the numbers that look best(worst).

    Compare Estately last year to Redfin this year.
    Use percentage when you can say inventory is up 100%, use raw numbers when you can’t.
    Don’t compare to long term averages, just look at inventory rising from all time lows.
    Someone getting a steal on rent is a sign than you shouldn’t buy.
    The 10-year treasury is heading over 3%, this is a disaster for buyers!
    The 10 year treasury is heading under 2.5%, this is a disaster for buyers!
    Point out the median is falling like a rock!
    Point out the median is skewing toward higher priced homes, so when it goes up it doesn’t matter!

    And of course, if all else fails, blame the REIC!

  54. 304
    Eastsider says:

    By uwp @ 301:

    Yeah. I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns negative Y/Y right as it turns positive M/M.

    This will be no surprise due to seasonality. Even in the midst of housing crash, there were M/M gains during spring months. The current prices need so much help to stay elevated which is unsustainable.

  55. 305

    RE: Deerhawke @ 302

    My thoughts?

    I haven’t seen a decent listing for one of my buyers yet. Inventory is 0 to me.

    I just sold my most recent listing to the first person who saw it without under pricing it.

    The rest is just a bunch of chatter. As long as “standing inventory” includes all the stuff no one wants…I don’t care anymore. In 4th Quarter I care In January and February I care. At that time I said we would have a Spring Bump in 2019 since back a few months into 2018. I haven’t changed my opinion. But once you get into Spring Bump it’s just nonsense unless you count the actual number that came on including the ones that went pending quickly.

    Only counting the not sold is a fool’s errand from March to June. Not sold i.e. “inventory” is either new on market, over priced or no one wants it pretty much ever. :)

    Interest rates are back under 4% so we’re only dealing with are Companies hiring fewer people. If no one knows the answer, nothing much to talk about.

    What’s the question?

  56. 306
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 276 – Immigrants to the USA in the 1900’s had to pass screening requirements where disease or criminal history resulted in denial of admission to the USA, and return to their native country. There were no ESL classes for these immigrants, nor any federal or state programs designed to help these people. Many were demonized by the Anglo and Dutch descendants of earlier immigrants, like the Irish who were depicted as subintelligent Papist monkeys, for example. While the USA proudly displayed the Statue of Liberty with its famous words, the reality was that immigration laws like the 1924 Immigration Act, which ended in 1965, stopped immigration from southern and eastern Europe. These legal immigrants did not demand minority status and special treatment as Francics or Germanics or Slavics. So no, folks don’t necessarily take their current citizenship status for granted, but only request that folks who cheat to get here, who are not screened for infectious disease or criminal history, who cut in front of folks who are following the law, be returned to their native countries as the lawbreakers they are.

  57. 307
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 305

    I have a house in Fremont coming on the market in a few weeks. Really nice build. So of course, I am trying to get a real sense of what is going on in the market.

    Most of the agents I know are telling me that some variant of what you are saying. It goes something like this:

    “Most of my buyers got cold feet last spring and mainly stayed that way through the end of the year. Over and over, I just kept hearing, “We need to take our time. What’s the hurry?” Now they all suddenly want me to find them the kind of things that were out there in spades in November and December! But it is a competitive market again and there really is not great inventory. In fact, a lot of the same crappy inventory is back on the market from last year. If it is at all good, full price offer. If it really good, I have even seen some multiple offer situations. Not as crazy as 2017, but it is competitive.”

    By the way, I have one son working as a consultant on the East Side for several tech companies. They are all building out office space. They are all hiring. His main complaint is that they never have any parking in their parking lots so he has to park far away and Uber to see his clients.

  58. 308
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 306

    I am certainly aware of the history since I come from a sub-intelligent Papist monkey family. It is interesting that even in the late 70’s, my (future) in-laws were scandalized that their well-educated Wasp daughter would choose to date a sub-intelligent Papist monkey.

    I don’t have any problem with having an immigration policy and enforcing it. My problem with a lot of the people who are making a hue and cry about immigration these days is their base motivation. They don’t want people coming here from Haiti, Africa and other “Sh!thole” countries. In fact, they really want nice people coming here from Norway.

    Different era from the days when “Help Wanted. No Irish Need Apply.” was a common sign in American cities? Sure, but in many ways, the message now is so much worse. “Not White? No Need to Apply.”

    The people who work on my job sites come from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Kenya, Korea, the Ukraine, Moldova, Poland, Romania and Russia. They all have green cards or their citizenship papers and they are proud to live and work here. They are making America great by working hard, building a great product that they can take pride in and getting along.

  59. 309
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 307:

    “Most of my buyers got cold feet last spring and mainly stayed that way through the end of the year. Over and over, I just kept hearing, “We need to take our time. What’s the hurry?” Now they all suddenly want me to find them the kind of things that were out there in spades in November and December! But it is a competitive market again and there really is not great inventory. In fact, a lot of the same crappy inventory is back on the market from last year. If it is at all good, full price offer. If it really good, I have even seen some multiple offer situations. Not as crazy as 2017, but it is competitive.”

    30yr mortgage rate declined almost 100 basis points (!) from the November peak of 5.05% to 4.08% today. This unprecedented drop in such a short period is the only reason we still have a market today. I am afraid the party of high prices and low interest rates won’t continue for long.

  60. 310
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 308:

    I don’t have any problem with having an immigration policy and enforcing it. My problem with a lot of the people who are making a hue and cry about immigration these days is their base motivation. They don’t want people coming here from Haiti, Africa and other “Sh!thole” countries. In fact, they really want nice people coming here from Norway.

    Yet you have no problem with ‘sanctuary’ policy. What’s wrong with supporting the law? Almost all countries practice legal immigration. Are these countries racist? If you want to import millions of people from Haiti, Africa and other “Sh!thole” countries (your words, not mine), you can lobby the congress to make it legal. As far as I can tell, it is illegal for them to be here so you have no right to demonize other law abiding fellow citizens.

  61. 311
    kenmorem says:

    By Eastsider @ 310:

    By Deerhawke @ 308:

    I don’t have any problem with having an immigration policy and enforcing it. My problem with a lot of the people who are making a hue and cry about immigration these days is their base motivation. They don’t want people coming here from Haiti, Africa and other “Sh!thole” countries. In fact, they really want nice people coming here from Norway.

    Yet you have no problem with ‘sanctuary’ policy. What’s wrong with supporting the law? Almost all countries practice legal immigration. Are these countries racist? If you want to import millions of people from Haiti, Africa and other “Sh!thole” countries (your words, not mine), you can lobby the congress to make it legal. As far as I can tell, it is illegal for them to be here so you have no right to demonize other law abiding fellow citizens.

    trump’s words, friend:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-attacks-protections-for-immigrants-from-shithole-countries-in-oval-office-meeting/2018/01/11/bfc0725c-f711-11e7-91af-31ac729add94_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.dabf81200ead

  62. 312
    Eastsider says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 311 – What is your point? Australia, Canada, and many western countries have used merit points system to limit immigration flow from those “Sh!thole” regions for decades. They don’t say it out loud but the result is the same.

  63. 313
  64. 314

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 305
    Yes Ardell

    They sent me this flier for an E. Kent Hill Home twice this week:

    27102 150th PL SE, Kent…its a 3 bdrm 1550-1700 SF [depends on whether they included the 2 car garage or not?] stick home on .22 acre for $370K….its an old 1968 structure, but newer roof and bad paint. [The phony brick decorative was glued on in later remodel, but still sports a brick chimney with earthquake cracking and fire danger from use likely]…the landscaping looks horrifying, just a moss lawn with beauty bark covering the weeds . The brick chimney needs a metal insert, the newer sales all have them now on brick chimneys…it should not be allowed for sale without the metal insert in my book.

    Its listed as “pending”, whatever that means, but still listed…I’m not the only one mentioning the brick chimney [likely cracked] a risk for fire insurance.

    Great choices out in Kent…none of the Glenbrook modulars next door listed? Banks won’t loan to modular property now? $CASH$ only at Glenbrook modulars? Affordable property below $400K in Kent is gone now?

    Grab it up before its gone?

  65. 315

    RE: ess @ 313
    Robot Warehouse Workers and Burger Flippers

    Will still need commercial business sites for the robots…perhaps you’re right…but what good does that do selling homes to humans…LOL

  66. 316

    RE: Eastsider @ 312
    The Open Border Party [Younger Folks Demographic too] Uses IPhones too Much?

    They say it causes mental illness, like depression and suicides triple among preteen iPhone users per raw data too..the OBP loves their iPhones….LOL, throw the dam_ thing away and read books [grow your IQ] instead, they say reading prevents Alzheimer too…IMO, they’ve also become a “look busy at work” Hollywood stage act while your doing nothing but gossiping about the person next to you doing the same “nothing burger” internet surfing on their “visible” laptops…do they watch movies on their iPhones at work too?

    The high tech is destroying America’s mental stability worse than crack? LOL

  67. 317

    RE: Deerhawke @ 308
    You and Trump Are Legal In My Book

    But both you and Trump also must know the whole Western Civilization life style will vanish soon at a theater near you if ya keep it up…

    We need a sensible green policy for gradual ecological population management of the world, not the radical unplug it all new green deal, the “new ecological deal” [my name BTW] is FAR better. If the Orcas survives in Seattle we win, if they die [they are] we lose. Its that simple. Carbon foot print is just 1% of the problem compared to sewage waste pouring into Puget Sound from over building and simultaneous overpopulation wild fires smoking up Seattle…the actual crisis with evidence, not just nebulous theory and some evidence.

  68. 318
    Joe says:

    RE: Whitechoco @ 288

    Did you think before posting that?

    Anyone who bought last summer probably can’t refinance because their house lost value and, as a result, they lost most of their equity. Unless they cough up another 15% of the home price to restore the lost equity, they likely can’t refinance. They have to sit in a home that is losing value, while paying an above market interest rate. That’s the penalty for buying in a bubble.

  69. 319

    RE: Matt P @ 275
    Yes Matt

    The trouble is when my Grandpa immigrated here from Sweden in 1890 We Were in an Industrial/Manufacturing Revolution in America

    He got free homestead acreage in “empty” North Dakota and lived in a humble shack farming for America…no welfare, no chain migration….just him….no tax payer costs in the $trillions…

    America has no manufacturing basically now [compared to 1890], the NWO Americas farms are also foreign suppliers to Canada, China and Saudis and we pay their H-2C unlimited “farm slaves” chain migration for “HORRIFYING” tax debt to feed the world cheaper too? They think the American taxpayers are a bunch of chumps now? We don’t need more people with robots replacing us all anyway…etc, etc…

    Ya need to throw away your iPhone and read books instead….you’re brainwashed by the Asian/European trade Overlords?

    I finished the 1984 Clive Barker “The Damnation Game” book….great read against the banksters’ conspiracies and guess what….reading more not only develops your mind for intelligence, it cures insomnia too. I sleep much better as a constant reader, try it out. I’m now reading “new” Dean Koontz Jane Hawk espionage novels [he published 4 new Jane Hawk books the last 4 years]. Stephen King published the Mercedes Man trilogy recently too. The used hard bound books are cheap now too….AMZ sells like new quality hard backs for like $6 delivered…any title, any author…I find VALUABLE collectors’ signed 1st editions mixed in too ;-)

    I’ve got an unpublished full novel SF manuscript too….I may use AMZ to write short stories to get my name known, maybe I can be a Clive Barker too? LOL…I’m 65, but I haven’t stopped dreaming. BTW, Clive is one year older than me and from England and looks just like Paul McCartney, he got out of literature about 2000 and now is a film director…bright man.

  70. 320
    BacktoBasics says:

    The mortgage rate drop of 1% would save house buyer $6000 assuming $720000 purchase price and 20% down. The rate would likely stay there for a while. House sale is rebound this spring. There is always housing demand in Seattle. Affordability is the factor. Interest rate is the key.

  71. 321

    RE: Deerhawke @ 307

    I don’t agree with your quote because there was nothing good in 4th Quarter or to date since then that I recommended to a client. So it’s kind of the opposite. They sent me things they might buy and I said no. LOL!

    As to your current needs “I have a house in Fremont coming on the market in a few weeks. Really nice build. So of course, I am trying to get a real sense of what is going on in the market.”

    The biggest problem for the sales in the next 60 days will be appraising since appraisers like to reach back 3 mos or 6 mos into the time when interest rates hit 5% and the market was queasy. Not sure how much that impacts new construction. More of a resale problem, especially for flippers.

    We are back to the “win-win” days for the most part. Don’t expect full price or better. Great if that happens but that’s more a 20% of the Market vs 85% of the market thing these days. For resale we have to leave a little room for everyone to win but not so much that we need a price reduction to go pending. It’s a tight space.

    Don’t expect more than last Spring and you should be fine. Maybe you’ll get more, but don’t plan on it.

  72. 322
    Notme says:

    Some tech bro(ad) downtown
    can afford shack in Sea-Tac
    hence not overpriced!

    -a bubble haiku

  73. 323
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 319

    You claim, “America has no manufacturing basically now [compared to 1890]”

    That is entirely untrue. USA manufacturing output has never been higher. Here is a random article I found but there are a ton of them. While the question of job availability in manufacturing is legitimate the output is way higher than it has ever been.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-manufacturing-dead-output-has-doubled-in-three-decades-2016-03-28

  74. 324
    Justme says:

    RE: randomseattledummie @ 323

    The manfacturing “index” shown from 1985 to 2015 seems to measure dollars of “output” and not even inflation adjusted dollars, rather than actually measure the amount of goods manufactured. So that is one big problem with the article. The 2nd big problem is that there is no graph of manufacturing PER CAPITA. In other words, the entire article is bullshit.

    Also: from 1990-2015 the manufacturing index went from 65 to 115 (eyeball) or 1.77X, while case-shiller seattle house price index went from 58 to 186 (or 3.2X). So much for housing prices having any relation to manufacturing output. And we already knew that housing prices outpaced wages by a big margin, did we not?

  75. 325
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: Justme @ 324

    Pick your own source. By any metric I have read manufacturing US output is higher than now than it ever has been.

    Am I now the MIC (manufacturing industrial complex) or am I still the REIC? /s

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