Case-Shiller: Seattle home price gains below average in January

It’s been a while since we posted our Case-Shiller charts and dashboards, so let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to January data that was released yesterday, Seattle-area home prices were:

Down 0.3 percent December to January
Up 4.1 percent YOY.
Up 26.7 percent from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were up 0.7 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 12.8 percent.

Seattle’s streak of dead last for month-over-month price changes lasted five months between July and November, and has since climbed slightly to #13 of 20 in the mont-over-month charts.

Seattle has fallen from #1 in year-over-year price growth back in May all the way down to #11 as of January, falling below the overall national rate.

Case-Shiller Year-Over-Year Home Price Change

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Here’s how the month-over-month price changes looked for all twenty markets:

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

There were two metro areas that hit new all-time highs in January: Charlotte and Dallas.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through January.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the 138 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 26.7 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

This is by far the biggest decline in prices that we’ve seen since the previous bubble burst. Will it continue into 2019? I personally doubt it, but we’ll see.

Here’s the Seattle Times’ story about this month’s numbers: Seattle-area home price cool-down stands out among U.S. cities

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2019-03-26)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.