Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Home Prices are Soaring

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $448,069 (up 0.3%)
  • Mid Tier: $448,069 – $670,317
  • Hi Tier: > $670,317 (up 0.4%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through June 2020.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

The low and middle tiers both rose month-over-month in June, but the high tier fell slightly. Over the past year and a half the low tier has definitely been showing the most strength.

Between May and June, the low tier increased 1.1 percent, the middle tier rose 0.7 percent, and the high tier fell 0.1 percent.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through June 2020.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Year-over-year price growth is relatively strong in all three tiers, but not the highest it’s been. So far this year price growth seems to have peaked in April. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of June – Low: +9.1 percent, Med: +6.7 percent, Hi: +5.0 percent.

Lastly, here’s a change-from-peak graph like the one in the national post with all of the Case-Shiller markets, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 43.1 percent above the 2007 peak for the low tier, 39.4 percent above for the middle tier, and 39.6 percent above for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2020-08-25)

4.33 avg. rating (85% score) - 3 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

46 comments:

  1. 1
    ohd1122 says:

    There’s a lot more demand for “affordable” places right now. I assume this covers only Seattle? How many SFH vs condos actually fall into that “low” tier? This COULD also explain why prices are soaring in Snohomish, Pierce, and adjacent counties…because people want to pay less for a home and are thus far willing to commute (or they plan to work remotely forever, more on that later).

    I’m with Blurtman, who made this same point on another thread. I’m not sure just eyeballing the last chart but I believe that dip coincides with when the fed decided to increase rates (before they backtracked) in 2018. As soon as rates got cut again, back to the races.

    If the Fed is to be believed that low rates will stay low for awhile, what exactly is going to slow down this market?

  2. 2
    The Tim says:

    By ohd1122 @ 1:

    I assume this covers only Seattle?

    No, Case-Shiller “Seattle” data is for the entire metro area, which is all of King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties.

  3. 3
    ruxpert says:

    More Sellers are Listing Their Homes, But Buying Frenzy Speeds Ahead
    This Zillow Weekly Market Report includes housing market data as of the
    week ending August 22

    By Zillow Aug 28
    https://www.dailyrecordnews.com/news/state/more-sellers-are-listing-their-homes-but-buying-frenzy-speeds-ahead/article_3ed43008-92cd-5492-8baa-f633c5fa2c43.html

  4. 4
    cash says:

    I saw several new listings where some other wording was used to describe what has been called a master bedroom. Have Redfin, Zillow, NWMLS etc already banned the word, or will it be banned soon?

  5. 5

    Tim, I Assume the Case Shiller data You Use Excludes Foreclosures With No Visibility of This Seattle Price Group

    That isn’t a big deal in Seattle since foreclosed “We Buy Ugly Home” Variants outside of Your Normal Listed Data Base are about the same price as high priced listed regardless. Why bother separating them? LOL…see for yourself a sample of SE King County Foreclosures:

    My snap shot group is $300-$1M each in Kent…all foreclosures? Are they like “gold plated”?

    https://kristinhsellshomes.com/search/combined?share=pay-per-click#?q_limit=36&mlsId=101&multi_search=Kent,%20WA&multi_cat=CityState&status=1|3&q_sort=createdAt-&q_offset=0

    So Tim; how do flippers find a good deal when they’re all about the same price anyway? Move out of Seattle if ya want a 50% off list real foreclosure deal? I certainly wouldn’t snap this group up at these insane prices. Can ya fix your graphs to price them all together anyway, since they’re documented in writing all about the same price anyway, apparently?

    Ardelle may have a secret list of 50% off foreclosures. I ask this because eviction bale-outs and late house payment forgiveness is not endless. Soon, it will be a MOOT POINT. Then the cow manure hits the proverbial fan?

    Thanx Tim

  6. 6

    Time to Slosh Down an Ice Coffee and Read the brief:

    “…With most K-12 schools in Washington state doing remote learning this fall, hundreds of thousands of families face an unprecedented challenge that could impose huge financial costs. Read more….”

    SWE’s take: How much effect will this have to get families with kids to move to Seattle now [or conversely prevent them from moving out of Seattle UNTRACKED in huge 100,000 groves now]? No public schools, no Face to Face schooling? None at all? LOL..the Tooth Fairy knows. My gosh, 100s of thousands of household incomes in Seattle affected too…that’s tenants and home owners combined…hey Tim, do you have a good data base to track the out flow from Seattle now? No good parent wants their kids on just online education in general.

    Good News: The Killer Flu case Counts are exponentially decreasing and the severity of symptoms is way down too…..that’s called hope folks….that is good for real estate sales in Seattle. Why isn’t it?

  7. 7
    ruxpert says:

    COMING: Class Action Suit Against Those Responsible For The Lockdowns
    https://www.targetliberty.com/2020/08/coming-class-action-suit-against-those.html

    Money Talks III – corona-schadensersatzklage.de
    https://youtu.be/x_sTEem7LG4

  8. 8
    cash says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 6
    Talk about the SWE is hitting the fan.

  9. 9
    TJ_98370 says:

    .
    Here’s how much Seattle rents have dropped since the start of the pandemic: study

    https://www.seattlepi.com/coronavirus/slideshow/Here-s-how-much-Seattle-rents-have-dropped-since-207774.php

  10. 10

    Is there a Perfect/Usable data Out There We Can Use/Trust to track anything That Directly Affects and Predicts High Priced Seattle Real Estate Trends Locally? Without Good data We’re Blind as Bats, Shooting From the Hip?

    Great links Ruxpert and TJ…Without Stable Renters and/or Killer Flu Lock down Termination We may as Well Put a Match to the “Recent” Price Dependability Predictions Allegations… this is just plain common sense.

    Have the Cashier Fill Your 99 cent Killer Flu Mug of Jo at the 7-11, You are told not to do it yourself now, killer flu prevention rules with no end…it adds about 5 minutes to the sale process too..read the brief:

    “…The war showcased Seattle’s potential — bombers produced by Boeing, men shipped off to combat, women who joined the workforce — and its shameful undercurrents: anti-Japanese sentiment and racism. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: Hitler and Japan Teamed Together in WWII to Take Over the World and destroy America. Period.

    “…Four years after San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick took a knee to protest racial injustice, more athletes — including Sue Bird, Megan Rapinoe and Russell Wilson — are speaking out themselves. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: How many Seahawk tee shirts have you seen in the Seattle area since? Hardly any.

    “…UW Athletics could lose up to $70 million because of the Pac-12’s decision to postpone its football season. But countless local businesses will also be affected. From boat charters to hotels to restaurants and bars, their challenge is to survive a fall without Husky football. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: The challenge is to end this “endless” lock down now. Seattle Real estate prices’ support and the recent shut down of Football businesses are not related at all. I have a bridge I can sell ya too.

    Good News: Go out and enjoy a restaurant table or hotel now, the waiting lines are spaced apart, but much shorter….I discovered I can dance again now at public halls….Rocking Horse at Renton offers private dance lessons if you bring your own date or spouse. Its like $17/hr and you must schedule in advance. They give you flu training precaution too. There is hope. When are the bowling alleys gonna open again, I miss bowling too…

  11. 11
    Erik says:

    RE: TJ_98370 @ 7
    Rents dropped 1.6%. So if the rent was $2500, it’s now $2460. The real reason is probably the West Seattle bridge, not Covid.

  12. 12
    Seattle Seller says:

    Went Rents and home prices go in opposite directions, I think something is wrong and must eventually be rebalanced. https://www.seattlepi.com/seattlenews/slideshow/Study-Fewer-renters-looking-to-move-to-Seattle-207699.php The massive change in unemployment is perhaps trending back down, but it has a very long way to go. https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm How many people will lose their residence when eviction moratoriums in WA (October) and Seattle (end of 2020) end? Some of us are doing just fine, even saving a lot of money on childcare and not going out or travelling, but some of us are hurting big-time with no work. https://livingwage.mit.edu/articles/74-addressing-food-insecurity-in-a-pandemic-era Seems to me that prices cannot continue to climb if we move from 10% of people needing help from food banks last year to 30% needing help this fall.

  13. 13
    ruxpert says:

    Housing Notes by Jonathan Miller
    The Sound And The Fury Of Housing
    https://www.millersamuel.com/note/august-28-2020/

    It’s a mess out there…

    Outbound Urban Migration Dramatization Keywords: Fleeing, Flocking, Exodus – Excessive.

    Housing Prices Continue to Rise At An Unsustainable Rate – What about wages?

    more:
    https://www.millersamuel.com/note/august-28-2020/

  14. 14
    David White says:

    By Erik @ 9:

    RE: TJ_98370 @ 7
    Rents dropped 1.6%. So if the rent was $2500, it’s now $2460. The real reason is probably the West Seattle bridge, not Covid.

    I’m seeing condo prices dropping around Cal Anderson Park. Maybe wait 2-3 months and make offers $100k below asking and see what happens.

  15. 15
    ruxpert says:

    What happens to RE in a “hyperinflationary economic collapse.” ?


    Larry McDonald, a New York Times best-selling author and CNBC contributor used this term in a blog for ‘The Bear Traps Report’ where he explained that current monetary policies by global central banks and government stimulus will lead to unintended negative consequences. In essence his point is that the solution could be worse than the problem.

    In his blog he wrote that, “We believe we are at the early stage of the biggest cobra effect in the history of economics. As the massive monetary and massive fiscal stimuli (over $15T globally) conjoin to save the economy from a deflationary depression, they will cause instead a hyperinflationary economic collapse.”

    Gold and the ‘Cobra Effect’
    August 26, 2020 –
    by Gary Wagner
    https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-08-26/Gold-and-the-Cobra-Effect.html

  16. 16
    ruxpert says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 8

    UK gov’t infectious disease advisor:
    “LOCKDOWNS A MONUMENTAL MISTAKE ON A GLOBAL SCALE’”
    ‘We absolutely should never return to a position where children cannot play or go to school.’
    Aug 25, 2020
    https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/uk-govtinfectious-disease-advisor-national-lockdowns-a-monumental-mistake-on-a-global-scale

  17. 17

    RE: softwarengineer @ 4

    Actually Erik has that list, not me. :) They appear in any data that uses County Records as the source of sold property. They won’t show in the mls data until and unless they are listed and resold in “the open market” aka in the mls. The Foreclosure Auctions are primarily used by investors. Appraisers don’t use foreclosure data either, other than a general up or downgrade based on the trend of foreclosures growing or receding.

    These will not likely hit until 2021 on a grand scale due to moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures. People looking for COVID weakness since March are not thinking this through to its foregone conclusion.

  18. 18
    N says:

    RE: TJ_98370 @ 7

    Depends what data you go by, but if you look at the Zumper rent tracking, since the peak in 2018 rents are down 14% (2 bedroom apartments). Still much better than Honolulu (down 27%) or Chicago (down 32%), yikes!

  19. 19
    Eastsider says:

    RE: N @ 15
    2BR rent peaked at $3,006 on 7/2/2016 and is currently at $2,235 (8/22/2020). That’s a drop of 25.6% in 4 years. Rent will continue to drop into winter due to seasonality.

    https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/seattle-wa

  20. 20
    Erik says:

    RE: David White @ 11
    That’s a great area. My units are in north Seattle, West Seattle, south Seattle, and north of Everett. I would love to get a 2 bedroom 1000+ square foot unit centrally located. I’d never sell it. I’ll keep an eye out.

  21. 21
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 14
    SWE can download the Auction.com app and look ahead. There are a couple tricks, but auctioneers showed me how to use the app during their break when I chat it up with them. I pay 3% and bid on the stuff that the place I pay to bid for me identifies as good deals. You only know what’s going to go that week and half the time those get postponed anyway. I figure out a few units I like the night before. Then I go socialize at the auction with the power buyers and hedge fund representatives. I never ask anyone what they are bidding on because that’s against the rules.

  22. 22
    David White says:

    By ruxpert @ 12:

    What happens to RE in a “hyperinflationary economic collapse.” ?


    Larry McDonald, a New York Times best-selling author and CNBC contributor used this term in a blog for ‘The Bear Traps Report’ where he explained that current monetary policies by global central banks and government stimulus will lead to unintended negative consequences. In essence his point is that the solution could be worse than the problem.

    In his blog he wrote that, “We believe we are at the early stage of the biggest cobra effect in the history of economics. As the massive monetary and massive fiscal stimuli (over $15T globally) conjoin to save the economy from a deflationary depression, they will cause instead a hyperinflationary economic collapse.”

    Gold and the ‘Cobra Effect’
    August 26, 2020 –
    by Gary Wagner
    https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-08-26/Gold-and-the-Cobra-Effect.html

    So now you’ve gone from reading Bitcoin rags to reading gold-bug rags.

    Wouldn’t it make more sense to evaluate investments differently? I bet you could buy a loaf of bread with gold. But I’d bet you LOSE in the exchange long term.

    As in, I’d take your gold for bread but I’d want a HUGE spread because I don’t know the transaction costs to convert the gold to MONEY (aka Dollars).

  23. 23
    David White says:

    By Erik @ 17:

    RE: David White @ 11
    That’s a great area. My units are in north Seattle, West Seattle, south Seattle, and north of Everett. I would love to get a 2 bedroom 1000+ square foot unit centrally located. I’d never sell it. I’ll keep an eye out.

    Did you make it to Florida to look at investment properties? Thoughts?

  24. 24
    N says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 14

    How likely do you think this is to happen given how forcefully the fed reacted to COVID and possibly how reluctant the bank and or politicians may be in letting things fail and foreclosures to happen. Seems there is a lot of interest in pumping the system and keeping things inflated if you will. Locally, even with this potential storm inventory is low and it seems demand is still high. Trying to gauge the risk of buying in the next 6 months versus putting up with our little rental in order to maximize our purchase/investment. It seems this could go one of two ways — keep going up or crashing down. Doesn’t seem like interest rates will let up anytime in the near future. It’s the old saying around here, I don’t want to buy at the wrong time but I also don’t want to be priced out if this train keeps going and going.

  25. 25
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: N @ 21

    They clearly tried to prop up the market in 2008 and 2009 with big credits for first time buyers. How did that work out? Honestly, until we know who the President is going to be, there’s no way to call it. At this point it’s a 50/50 shot. Not much time left to at least know which Party will be calling the shots.

  26. 26
    ruxpert says:

    RE: David White @ 19

    dear David,
    Please, rather than ragging via more distraction / hypocrisy, simply answer the question, or simply don’t ‘respond’. Be better for the forum.
    Thanks ;-)

  27. 27
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 12

    What happens to RE in a “hyperinflationary economic collapse.” ?

  28. 28
    ruxpert says:

    Pinterest pays $89.5 million to terminate San Francisco office lease
    By Katie Dowd – Sunday, August 30, 2020
    https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Pinterest-terminate-SF-office-lease-88-Bluxome-15525421.php


    P.Schiff:
    “The landlord is lucky Pinterest paid to get out of the lease, but deals like this will send office rents plunging. Thanks to the Fed many landlords are loaded up with debt, and even at low rates they won’t have enough rental income to make their payments.”

  29. 29
    Blurtman says:

    If only the young man were shot in Mayor Jenny’s ‘hood, he might have survived. Hope the dad wins.

    Between this and Suzi’s billion dollar giveaway to Nigerian scammers, taxes going up, up, and away!

    Father of man killed in Seattle’s CHOP sues the city, county and state for $3BILLION for allowing protesters to create a ‘hazardous and lawless situation
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8677897/Father-man-killed-Seattles-CHOP-sues-city-3BILLION.html

  30. 30
    Erik says:

    RE: David White @ 20
    Not yet. I haven’t even bought a primary house yet, so that’s probably going to be first. We’re thinking of buying in Slidell at this new development in an area called Ashton Parc. I want something I can rent out later. Things are cheap down here and I’m never looking to overpay.

    I was comfortable throwing money around in Seattle because that’s a hot area and I seem to always end up making money in real estate there. I’m not so sure about the dirty south yet. When I buy rentals, I think Orlando and Tampa would be nice although I’ve never been there. The beautiful areas you suggested along the shore seem too risky for me with these hurricanes. I‘m looking for stable investments in areas I think will go up in value. I’d like to never have to sell a house again.

  31. 31

    Great Comments All

    1. I like your sifting the foreclosure auctions for gems Erik, what’s the hit ratio? 1%? I noticed the HUD auctions were most all just normal high list price too….ya need tricks to escape the high bid auction lemmings…LOL…never join the crowd in failure…

    2. Blurtman, you aren’t the only Democrat fed up with lame excuses for senseless CHRONIC Portland, Seattle, Kenoshaw, Chicago, NYC, etc, etc. city burning, looting and killing…six Democrat Mayors in Minnesota today are screaming too much pandering to violence politics by progressive Mayors and Governors too, switched Party support to GOP over this issue alone too. Do you believe the violence is caused by the Police or just Trump campaign impacts or its just plain senseless violence by a few bad apples we all hate ? Why doesn’t Biden offer law enforcement/rally support in Kenoshaw if they allege Trump is the root cause and shouldn’t show his face? Is it the alleged violence police fault, Trump’s fault or Biden’s fault? The Tooth Fairy knows….some issues like this are non-partisan IMO. We must do something to really fix it.

    Grab your 50% Off Mug From Erik’s Foreclosure Auction APP, party at the vulture flipper auction party afterwards and read the brief:

    “… ‘Lives are at stake’: Killing amid protests leaves Portland reeling
    Portland’s volatile conflicts boiled over on Saturday, when a supporter of the right-wing Patriot Prayer group was fatally shot after Trump backers and Black Lives Matter protesters clashed. Oregon State Police will return to Portland’s streets, but President Donald Trump is calling again for federal forces to subdue the protests in U.S. cities, drawing accusations that he’s “fanning the flames of hate.” Trump plans to travel tomorrow to Kenosha, Wis., after a week of upheaval that followed the police shooting of Jacob Blake, but the governor is urging him to stay away. Need to catch up on what happened in Oregon? Here’s a quick Q&A and a look at what Patriot Prayer is. (Photo: Paula Bronstein / AP)…”

    SWE’s take: Now the partisan airheads claim that visits to “disaster hit zones” for analysis and planning should be banned or it gets worse…hey, ban Hurricane Laura devastation areas too, they will get worse if FEMA analysis by President for relief is cancelled too?…LOL…its all just brainless politics in my book…politicians are ruthless sharks.

    “… COVID-19 has likely become the third leading cause of death in King County, surpassing Alzheimer’s disease. FYI Guy takes a county-by-county look at the virus’ toll and what’s behind the numbers. Find today’s live updates here.
    Coronavirus cases are plateauing or falling in some parts of Washington state, health officials say. But in others, new outbreaks have cropped up. Cases are spiking in Pullman as students return to WSU, even though it’s closed to in-person instruction…”

    SWE’s take: Soooooo…is it getting much better or much worse? Talk about politics fanning the flames to Killer Flu depression/anxiety…LOL…a lot of the Jack and the Box servers now pull their Killer Flu muzzles down below nose level to work and breath too…what if you have asthma or any common allergy or breathing disorder…we must click our heals together like Nazi Germany and comply until we pass out?

    “… COVID-19 disarms a part of your immune system that is both the body’s whooping air-raid siren and its emergency responders rushing to the scene. But scientists are excited by how a new understanding of what’s happening might help them boost that emergency team.
    When the virus recedes, will telehealth stay? The pandemic has more Americans making phone and video visits to health care providers, but there are concerns about privacy and the quality of care…”

    SWE’s take: Compare Killer Flu to a whooping “Hydrogen Bomb ICBM” siren alerting us of the incoming nuke tipped missile from like China to Seattle? Its called “fear mongering” and politicizing a Pandemic aimlessly too…LOL….Hey, I thought this conflict using “new understanding” among science/doctors on Killer Flu was a joke? How about Standard Operating Procedure the last few decades?

    “…It’s time to squeeze the last drops of fun from summer and get ready for the school year. The Weekly Wonder has five inspirations for doing that with your kids, from involving them in back-to-school prep to making armpit fudge…”

    SWE’s take: If the schools are all online anyway, its really more of this isolation Summer “extended” lock down “forever” with kids barred from real face to face public schools, while driving mom and dad nuts at home; trying to pay for like private school costs, high Seattle rent/mortgage payment rates and loss of the second household income forever? Erik has the answer…LOL…ask him.

    Good News: This Winter is suppose to the coldest in recent history according to Farmer prediction models…

  32. 32

    RE: David White @ 19
    Katrina Taught Us a Different Story

    When an apocalypse hits; gold and $CASH$ become worthless; pot, beer and coffee become the money standard…ya can’t eat gold… ask the victims of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans…its that simple.

  33. 33
    ruxpert says:

    EU Elites Are at Last Waking Up to Their Lockdown Folly
    Not that they’ll ever take responsibility for the insanely extensive, and utterly unnecessary, fallout
    https://www.anti-empire.com/eu-elites-are-at-last-waking-up-to-their-lockdown-folly/

  34. 34
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 24

    Perhaps the FED can avoid hyperinflation?
    (especially if/when via Cashless-ecomony / FedCoin.;-)

    The Real Estate Guys Radio Show
    The Global Economy During COVID-19 with Richard Duncan – EP5
    https://youtu.be/3Lv9uk14KDQ


    Fedcoin? The U.S. central bank is looking into it
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-brainard/fedcoin-the-u-s-central-bank-is-looking-into-it-idUSKBN1ZZ2XF

  35. 35
    N says:

    RE: Erik @ 27

    Things are cheap but it’s a different game, more about cash flow, much less about appreciation. You can really hit a home run on cash flow at the low end if you don’t mind the hands on maintenance that those properties and tenants attract. And you’ll have much more turnover at $300k as these are tenants that can afford to buy and will.

    What you and your family may want to live in may be different than the best investment. The $100k home cash flows ALOT better than the $300k home most of us would rather live in.

  36. 36
    uwp says:

    By Erik @ 27:

    RE: David White @ 20
    Not yet. I haven’t even bought a primary house yet, so that’s probably going to be first. We’re thinking of buying in Slidell at this new development in an area called Ashton Parc. I want something I can rent out later. Things are cheap down here and I’m never looking to overpay.

    How do you feel about the weather down there?

  37. 37
    Erik says:

    RE: uwp @ 33
    I really don’t mind the weather. I would prefer a few degrees lower in the summer, but it is manageable. I got here in July and lived through August which are the hottest months. It’s hot and humid here. My 29 week pregnant wife complained about the heat, but she’s 29 weeks pregnant, so you gotta factor that in. New Orleans area has a good amount of overcast, which cuts down on the radiant heat, which helps.

    Every place we’ve been has central AC in New Orleans, so when you get hot you go inside. I spent most my time indoors in Seattle and I spend most my time indoors in New Orleans, so it’s no big deal. So far I definitely prefer the hot weather here compared to the weather in Seattle. If I had to complain about something, it would be traffic. People drive aggressive and wreckless here and I don’t very feel safe on the roads.

  38. 38
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 32
    Good point and thank you for your insight. I’ll see if I can talk my wife into living in a cheap house. We currently live in a small outdated 4br 2ba house that Zillow says is worth $158k and we pay $1600/mo rent, which really isn’t a lot compared to other houses. The walls are puke brown and I killed 9 cockroaches in the bathroom yesterday, so we are not living high on the hog right now by any means.

    This cash flow thing is an entirely new game for me and I’m trying to wrap my head around it. In Seattle, I buy them with a good chunk of equity, rent them out until I can pull out more than what I borrowed and use some of that money to buy more. I generally lose money on cash flow in Seattle, but there is a big reward when I sell.

  39. 39
    N says:

    RE: Erik @ 35

    There is an old benchmark in investment properties that says only consider buying if monthly rent equals at least 1% of the purchase price, sounds like the house you are living in would meet that. This obviously gets thrown out on the West Coast. Heck, for $1,600 here your renting a $400-500k property easy. You can see how well you could cash flow given that rent for such a lower purchase price with sub 3% rates. If you want to really read up and learn from serious landlords with lots of these types I would read mrlandlord.com’s message board.

  40. 40
    SeaH says:

    Was your area hard hit by Laura?RE: Erik @ 35

  41. 41
  42. 42
    David White says:

    By Erik @ 35:

    RE: N @ 32
    Good point and thank you for your insight. I’ll see if I can talk my wife into living in a cheap house. We currently live in a small outdated 4br 2ba house that Zillow says is worth $158k and we pay $1600/mo rent, which really isn’t a lot compared to other houses. The walls are puke brown and I killed 9 cockroaches in the bathroom yesterday, so we are not living high on the hog right now by any means.

    This cash flow thing is an entirely new game for me and I’m trying to wrap my head around it. In Seattle, I buy them with a good chunk of equity, rent them out until I can pull out more than what I borrowed and use some of that money to buy more. I generally lose money on cash flow in Seattle, but there is a big reward when I sell.

    I bought a new house here in Florida last year that was sitting long enough for the ants to make a LOT of headway around the huge front/back covered porches. Along with all sorts of other bugs.

    If you want something that flat out takes out the bug kingdom, here it is:

    https://www.amazon.com/Permethrin-jwpdlT-36-8-permethrin-6666105/dp/B073H9GFT8/ref=sr_1_2?dchild=1&keywords=Control+Solutions+Inc.+36.8+%25+Permethrin+SFR+32+oz+Pest+Control+Insecticide&qid=1598937228&sr=8-2

    Non-staining and synthetically derived from Geraniums.

    Cockroaches, I believe, are outside bugs who find their way in and I am not sure they propagate inside. But this stuff dilutes nicely and KILLS. You can even put it on your clothes and let them dry before wearing to ward off mosquitoes. They sell it at REI for clothing treatment for a ridiculous price.

    The local mosquito authorities, here, spray this from helicopters, etc.

    About this time last year we boondocked our RV in Morgan, LA and it was HOT. We stayed here: https://www.rigmuseum.com/

  43. 43
    Erik says:

    RE: SeaH @ 40
    No. I’m in Slidell, LA and north of interstate 12, which is supposed to be one of the better areas for hurricanes and flooding. Our back yard flooded from Marco and we were concerned the water was going to come in the house and luckily it didn’t. The water was about an inch from flooding our house and our backyard looked like a lake. Laura was far enough west of me to not have an effect on my area. It was enough of a scare to show me the threat is real and I need take hurricanes into account when buying.

  44. 44
    Erik says:

    RE: David White @ 42
    Bug spray has been ordered, thank you.

    We will have to checkout that museum on a weekend. Thanks again!

  45. 45

    Erik, You Sure Are Lucky to Have a Wife That Likes to invest and flip Like You Do…She’s a Keeper. Nice to Hear You’re All Safe Too…

    Cockroaches require pest control wall drilling too…they nest in your walls. Stay away from homes with basements…they leak. I’m having my trees at my Kansas flipper sprayed for bugs after the years of oak tree debris was removed by landscaper….its good I have a resident House Manager [my daughter] do inspections. Tenants can not always be reliable on preventive maintenance reporting needs. The lawn mowing out there means mowing through 1/2″ tree stubs too….you’ll need a professional style high horse power hay mower to get through the oak seedlings too…

    Its sunny and hotter today….with hot days coming back this weekend, grab your mug of special chocolate/vanilla iced coffee at Carl Jrs and read the brief:

    “… Coming soon to a school near you? How one district in Washington is going back in-person
    More than 94% of public school students in Washington will be learning remotely this fall — even in some places where coronavirus risks are considered low. This sets us apart from much of the nation. But kids in dozens of the state’s school districts are going back into buildings, serving as a preview of how school may eventually look for the rest of the state. At Clarkston High School in Eastern Washington, it’s different for everyone, from senior Mick Brown (above) getting a paper towel to wipe disinfectant off his desk, to teacher Dawn Brown “trying to make my eyes crinkle more” so kids can read her expressions despite her mask. (Photo: Pete Caster / for The Seattle Times)..”

    SWE’s Take: A repeat of yesterday’s news on MASS Seattle area Public School face to face closures….albeit 6% of public schools will be face to face with mask Killer Flu muzzles and [from the picture] 3-4 students per class room. Sounds grim doesn’t it. Do we have a lottery to see who gets the “muffled mask voice” face to face schooling or is the whole thing a joke that will never work anyway? Our kids are the real losers in this Killer Flu politics IMO. About 1 in 5 kids from household incomes making LT $50K/yr must eat cake in the Seattle area and be truant students not going to school at all now? Its like Obamacare….common sense and political bias never mix until ya read and understand the bill ya just blindly sign…

    https://www.edsurge.com/news/2020-03-20-here-s-what-schools-can-do-for-the-millions-of-students-without-internet-access

    “…One Seattle police officer made $414,543 last year — more than the mayor or police chief. How? He was paid for working about twice as many hours as a typical full-time employee, and sometimes for working more than 24 hours in a single day, according to our analysis of SPD data. This Times Watchdog story details how Officer Ron Willis’ extraordinary pay is raising questions SPD can’t answer….”

    SWE’s take: The average pay for a Seattle cop is about $25/hr…same pay as my son-in-law draws teleworking from Bank of America as a credit card administrator…I”d rather be a Kansas City bank worker teleworking with $600/mo rent. Who wouldn’t…

    https://www.indeed.com/career/police-officer/salaries/Seattle–WA

    The website Indeed is the best website for average pay, its real average pay and politically neutral.

    “…President Donald Trump is diving into the latest eruption over racial injustices with a trip today to protest-wracked Kenosha, Wis., where local leaders begged him not to come. Find updates here. This comes a day after Trump and Joe Biden fought over which of them poses the biggest danger to Americans’ safety, and Trump talked about a plane “loaded with thugs … from a certain city” who he said were planning “to do big damage” at the Republican convention…”

    SWE’s Take: Seattle Times reads tea leaves accurately? They have pre-determined future new news now? How about just plain fake news unless it happens…and even if it did, why blame Trump? Isn’t the criminal responsible at all?

    “…Can you use a face shield instead of a mask? Health officials are explaining why they don’t recommend it, and which kinds make the best sense if you want to double up…”

    SWE’s take: So its better to wear a plexiglass face shield with a flu muzzle, but we recommend a muzzle only too? Equally logical; wear the face shield alone, many medical experts agree with me too…the whole logic behind this smells of manure.

    “…What are all those red lights? Theaters, concert halls and other venues in the Seattle area will light up in red today to raise awareness for the coronavirus-battered live entertainment industry. A march takes place tonight…”

    SWE’s take: They’re red, because they’re mad as Hades about the political Killer Flu openings delays..the difference is, they’ll protest without looting and destroying Seattle…

    Good News: Erik weathered Hurricane Laura and his home wasn’t destroyed…my daughter in Kansas gets tornado scares from time to time, but tornadoes don’t like rivers and Kansas City is a river city…they rarely touch down near her.

    “…

  46. 46
    David White says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 45 – I’ve caught two cockroaches in my house in the past week – by hand. They come from outside – no holes are being drilled!

    One of my Marine Corps buddies had survival training where he ate these things – no soy sauce.

    I just grabbed them and threw them out the door.

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