August stats preview: Plenty of demand, still so little supply

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As we’re getting back into the swing of things, let’s check out the housing stats for the recently-completed month of August. Overall it’s the same story we’ve been seeing for quite some time: Sales are up and listings are way down from a year ago. Foreclosures are practically non-existent (which was the case even before the various mortgage forbearance programs went into place).

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

King County Stats Preview

Snohomish County Stats Preview

Rapidly decreasing inventory coupled with continued year-over-year gains in sales is still the biggest news in this month’s data. First up, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

King County Warranty Deeds

Sales in King County fell slightly (-2.2%) between July and August (a year ago they fell further—5.5%—over the same period), but were up 7.6 percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Snohomish County Deeds

Deeds in Snohomish fell 4.6 percent month-over-month (versus a 3.4 percent decline in the same period last year) but were up 2.3 percent from a year earlier.

Next, let’s look at our inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

King County SFH Active Listings

Snohomish County SFH Active Listings

The number of homes on the market in King County fell 5.0 percent from July to August. Year-over-year listings were down 40 percent from August 2019. There has been a severe shortage of homes for sale in the Seattle area all year, even before the pandemic began depressing listings.

In Snohomish County inventory fell 16 percent month-over-month, and was down 60 percent from a year earlier.

Hit the jump for the foreclosure charts, which I continue to include for posterity, not because there are any really interesting numbers in them.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

King County Notices of Trustee Sale

Snohomish County Notices of Trustee Sale

Foreclosure notices in King County were down 72 percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down 83 percent from last year. Last year’s levels were already exceptionally low, but mortgage forbearance has pushed these numbers to as close to zero as they can go.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

King County Trustee Deeds

Trustee Deeds were down 22 percent from a year ago. Even with as strong as the housing market is, 21 homes were still foreclosed on last month in King County.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

75 comments:

  1. 1
    Erik says:

    Nice to see you back and I love the graphs.

    I would add that your language is a little deceiving.

    “Rapidly increasing inventory coupled with continued year-over-year drops in sales is still the biggest news in this month’s data.”

    Good thing I read the data first and then the words. Welcome back!

  2. 2
    The Tim says:

    RE: Erik @ 1 – Doh! Got those swapped. Updating… Thanks!

  3. 3
    Erik says:

    RE: The Tim @ 2
    It’s a simple typo. Great job on the content Tim.

  4. 4
    Bumble says:

    Glad you are back, Tim!

    That YOY drop in inventory is something.

  5. 5
    Erik says:

    RE: Bumble @ 4
    Looks like condo inventory is up and housing prices down in king county. If I was in the market to buy right now, I’d be eye balling those condos for a 5 year hold. Forever hold if you got plenty of reserves in the bank.

  6. 6

    Tim, Are We Missing the Rest of the Foreclosure [Kent alone shows over 100 foreclosed listings in Aug 2020 alone] Iceberg and the Trustee Deeds You Track limits or Omits Them All?

    IMO, tracking foreclosures by bank trustee deed is a joke, when just Kent foreclosures are this HUGE right now and they’re basically the same thing:

    https://www.realtystore.com/search.html?adid=RS17200&custzip=98042

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but why are almost zero “Bank Trustee Deeds Data” more important tracking than just plain MASS foreclosures listings now? Let’s get this right. Is the “bankster” wolf guarding the foreclosure data chicken house?

    The brief also states today:

    “… The CDC is ordering landlords not to evict certain renters, to prevent the virus from spreading further. Here’s who is covered under the order…”

    SWE’s Take: Is this like a lion’s share of the current tenants? What percentage? The data is useless?

    “…From Woodinville to the president’s thumbs, a false claim spread like a virus. The claim that only 9,000 people have died from COVID-19 was started by an Eastside chiropractor and then debunked by an Olympic Peninsula fact checker. Columnist Danny Westneat writes about how, in the two days between, it made its way to tens of millions of people….”

    SWE’s take: Go out and ask Japan if coronavirus death rates are a mixed existing condition joke. Japan thinks so too.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/08/09/commentary/world-commentary/coronaphobia-coronavirus/

    Why are United States’ Killer Flu death rates [purposely mixed in error with existing conditions?] so high and the rest of the world is laughing at us? The tooth fairy knows…LOL….our data looks odd indeed compared to the rest of the world. And Fauci doesn’t explain the error comparison either…

    Good News: The data is a limited tool, not a method of real success…

  7. 7
    Erik says:

    RE: Erik @ 5
    I swapped them too and that’s easy to do. I meant, “Looks like condo inventory is up and housing inventory is down in king county.”

  8. 8
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    According to Redfin offer insights, a decidedly average 3/1 rambler here in Wedgwood got over 30 offers before selling for $860k. That is quite a bump from 2017 when the price of that house would reliably start with a 6.

  9. 9
    Seattle Seller says:

    And rent concessions are up by about double. When landlords have trouble renting, but home prices are rising fast, something is wrong. https://www.seattlepi.com/coronavirus/slideshow/seattle-landlords-offering-concessions-to-renters-208085.php

  10. 10

    Great Comments All:

    In the recent past, many Bubbleheads commented on never ending default contract buyer eviction timelines or paying no mortgage and living in the house anyway forever? Is this still going on?

    This continued “Socialist Type” action can lead to artificial house price increases, because competing stock is denied unfettered and free market Capitalist purchases. Is this still an issue?

    https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/august/mortgage-delinquencies-spike-in-the-second-quarter-of-2020

    The MBA data is clear, and that’s National Data…I imagine Seattle is much worse with higher real estate prices…why wouldn’t this be? A recent National 50% increase in delinquent mortgages due to Killer Flu is not chump change folks, its HORRIFYING. I imagine its mostly new contacts with lower paid or unemployed workers too.

    Time to gulp down a $3 Mug of Coffee, but because its a Seattle sold coffee brand its $6 a mug….LOL…and read the brief:

    “… King County sheriff apologizes to family, 3 years after deputy killed Tommy Le
    “I miss my son so much,” Dieu Ho, above, said yesterday before King County Sheriff Mitzi Johanknecht publicly apologized for the 2017 shooting that killed 20-year-old Le. Johanknecht also disputed major parts of an independent review that found serious gaps in how the department investigated the shooting. The review’s author outlined why he believes the department “has a long way to go.” (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s take: This is old news is three years old….how about recent police killing deaths in Seattle due to recent violence…..focus on that more, IMO…what a joke in journalism this is…its missing the recent surge in violence point today. Reshuffling the chairs on the sinking Titanic? Or just ignoring the fact that the Titanic is sinking?

    “…After President Donald Trump threatened to cut funding to “lawless” cities including Seattle, Mayor Jenny Durkan fired back yesterday, saying he can’t. Trump also suggested people should vote twice, once by mail and once in person. But that’s illegal. Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Joe Biden today faces an intense test when he travels to Kenosha, Wisconsin. And voters, King County elections officials have a challenge for you: Plan ahead and push turnout to a new record in the Nov. 3 election…”

    SWE’s take: With limited government law enforcement funding, Seattle could see MASS federal funds omitted and used by compliant state’s that don’t squander the money on no action anyway…. the exact budget cut is unknown at this time, but it sounds potentially HUGE and coming soon evidently.

    “… Why wasn’t the public told sooner about a COVID-19 outbreak at a Bremerton hospital, even though health officials knew? During the week-long silence, the hospital admitted patients who now have infections linked to the outbreak, which has grown to 65 confirmed cases. Read more about this and find today’s live updates here…”

    SWE’s take: Yeah….and these are the same “Big American Pharma Political PACs” Yahoos that have been “falsely” telling us flu shots worked, after flu strains always/normally mutate far more benign months anyway and flu shots were useless by then…LOL…its all politics….they have the “Hospital Worker Politics” answer, make Americans pay more for prescription drugs and do all the research and development in America and sell the same product in another country for pennies on the dollar….LOL…I hate politics. Using this logic makes the past Obama/Bush flu prevention efforts [like restocking respirators] a complete joke IMO and I do volunteer work as a bioengineer at hospitals. Do similar/increased Killer Flu testing just tell us the benign mutated variant Killer Flu strain is spreading to scare us all unnecessarily anyway? The Tooth Fairy knows, make sure the Tooth Fairy telling the truth isn’t a hospital politician type.

    “…Hundreds of Central Washington residents have been told to evacuate after the Evans Canyon Fire destroyed five homes and grew to 35,000 acres. Wind gusts are expected to add to firefighters’ challenges today…”

    SWE’s take: The wild fire pollution clouds coming soon to Seattle in September now? I hope not…so far so clear this year…

    Good News: There are a lot more “help wanted” signs visible in Kent recently. Jobs, jobs, jobs…..did a lion’s share of the Gen-Zs and Millennial generations get the heck of Seattle untracked and left low wage jobs galore in Seattle? It seems that way, even with 10% on unemployment. I see much less young adults in my neighborhood , how about the rest of you Bubbleheads? You can directly track them leaving the Baby Boomers’ Seattle area homes by counting fewer cars in the BBs’ driveways BTW. Hey, even burger flipping pays regional managerswith job experience like $50-100K/yr… sounds like software engineering type wages to me…

  11. 11
    WTActualF says:

    Great comments all! Tim, thanks for bringing the blog back to life but I’ll take it from here. Thanks!

    Now I haven’t gotten much attention lately so I’m here to mess this place up with a wall of text on a bunch of crap nobody came here to read about and if that wasn’t enough I’m going to do it By Writing It With The Strangest Sentence Structure And Interspersing Of Title Casing You’ve Ever Witnessed.

  12. 12
    don says:

    RE: WTActualF @ 11

    Not good enough, no soup for you!
    At least throw in some partisan bs worthy of tinfoil, or I ain’t readin it.

  13. 13
    Juststoppedby says:

    By WTActualF @ 11:

    Great comments all! Tim, thanks for bringing the blog back to life but I’ll take it from here. Thanks!

    Now I haven’t gotten much attention lately so I’m here to mess this place up with a wall of text on a bunch of crap nobody came here to read about and if that wasn’t enough I’m going to do it By Writing It With The Strangest Sentence Structure And Interspersing Of Title Casing You’ve Ever Witnessed.

    Ha! I’m at least 1/2 convinced that SWE is doing his best to impersonate a loudmouth drunk who is doing an impression of the actor Peter Weller (while constantly having a mouth full of crackers).

    Add in a bit of self absorbed millennial and you’ve got a dead ringer.

  14. 14
    Erik says:

    RE: Seattle Seller @ 9
    Mortgage rates are down and payments are lower, so dumb money is out buying houses and not renting. That drives rental prices down.

  15. 15
    N says:

    RE: Erik @ 14

    I would bet a much bigger driver is folks who simply can’t make their rent and move in with friends, family etc. Renting is still much cheaper than buying from a cash flow/monthly payment perspective, as much as 50% cheaper in monthly payment compared to buying in Seattle. And let’s face it, more renters have been affected by job loss or reduced hours than owners at this point (think service jobs).

  16. 16
    SeaH says:

    Yes… I agree with you . It might not be the right to buy right now. The eviction/forbearance mortarium have not been lifted.

    I’ll be a first time homeowner but not right now .

    RE: Erik @ 14

  17. 17
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 15
    From the people I know, there are about 100 houses in planned forbearance to stockpile cash before the next recession. I know zero people taking mortgage forbearance that need it in order to not foreclose. I talk to real estate investors because I’m interested in real estate investing. I don’t really have friends in the service industry anymore now that I’m married and I no longer frequent those establishments. You could be right that there are more people getting forbearance that actually need it, but in my small group of friends and acquaintances, it’s opposite.

    People I talk to think mortgage forbearance is about a real estate investor president giving a huge boost to fellow real estate investors. To get mortgage forbearance, you need to call your bank and self attest that you are affected by covid. If the government wanted to only help poor people affected by covid, they’d require proof, but they don’t. Trump wants to help out fellow real estate investors and people that understand the time value of money,

  18. 18
    N says:

    RE: Erik @ 17

    In certain circles I agree that is the case. But renters are more widely affected than owners. I don’t think we have fully appreciated how much the housing market was saved by the feds actions (buying up mortgages, driving down rates etc). Without intervention it would have been ugly and may still be. For a lot of people this time is much worse than the great recession. Not so much for many white collar jobs to date.

    An interesting stat – seated diners in restaurants in Seattle are down over 80% from a year ago

    By the way, I’ve seen some lenders now require you attest in taking out a mortgage that you won’t file for forbearance.

  19. 19
    Eastsider says:

    RE: SeaH @ 16

    Prices will drop when eviction/forbearance mortarium ends. Furthermore, the extended 39-week unemployment assistance will end before January.

    It will be ugly next year. Lowering interest rate won’t matter without income/job.

    Be patient.

  20. 20
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 18
    You could be right that more people are taking forbearance that need it, I don’t have that data, so I really have no idea.

    Renters are a completely different story. Owners don’t have to pay mortgage until the end of their mortgage and renters have to pay their rent in full right when the rental moratorium is lifted in a few months. Renters that take the moratorium will get kicked out of their homes in a few months and owners will put their payments on pause and resume paying their regular payments in a year. It’s a huge difference and real estate owners are again being rewarded and renters are being treated like garbage. It doesn’t seem fair to me but that’s how the world works.

    I heard that same thing that lenders are making borrowers attest they won’t take mortgage forbearance and I don’t know the details since I’m not buying right now. I’m not sure if there is a way around that where borrowers can take forbearance anyway, but I’ll look it up and report back.

  21. 21
    Erik says:

    RE: SeaH @ 16
    Right now is a scary time to buy your first home. In a free market, the forbearance would end and prices would drop. We are not in a free market and I expect the feds to continue to pushing prices up somehow, but that’s just a guess.

    Last time housing prices were about to crash, we loosened lending standards so that anyone could buy which pushed prices much higher. This time period could be like that again, right before housing prices really go up.

    You are probably right to wait it out. This is a scary time to buy, knowing a crash is coming at some point. Asset prices are going up and people are losing their jobs. That doesn’t make sense and cannot sustain.

  22. 22
    SnP says:

    RE: N @ 18

    We had to attest we would not need forbearance in the next 3 months, AND that we did not have any knowledge that we would be unemployed. And this was to refinance with a place we already had a mortgage.

    They also made us provide 5 months of pay checks, back to the start of COVID through literally the week we signed with escrow.

    Found it ironic that they made it so hard to lower your monthly payment (and thus make a payment more affordable if you are laid off).

  23. 23
    uwp says:

    Another thing that could be driving some of the “rent down, house prices up” is that a lot of those high income folks who were fine renting a 1-2 br apartment actually need more space right now. Their work just said, “Hey, you need to have a home office for an indeterminate amount of time.” Maybe they have a kid that needs to do school from home now too. I have no idea how prevalent it is, but I know several people in that situation, including ourselves. We got lucky we moved up last year to a bigger house, I don’t know how we would have made our previous place work.

  24. 24
    Erik says:

    RE: SnP @ 22
    Poor people get screwed in a capitalistic society. Way to lock in that low rate.

  25. 25
    David White says:

    I am trying to buy right now.

  26. 26
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 20:

    Renters are a completely different story. Owners don’t have to pay mortgage until the end of their mortgage and renters have to pay their rent in full right when the rental moratorium is lifted in a few months. Renters that take the moratorium will get kicked out of their homes in a few months and owners will put their payments on pause and resume paying their regular payments in a year. It’s a huge difference and real estate owners are again being rewarded and renters are being treated like garbage. It doesn’t seem fair to me but that’s how the world works.

    What twisted logic. Renters walk away with months of back rent at the end of the moratorium. Landlords bear the cost of servicing debt, including taxes and upkeep. But I suppose you would be okay if your tenants stop paying rent…

  27. 27

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 13
    I Don’t Drink Alcohol

    I quit it years ago, it makes me fat.

    Are you and Bumble the same person?

  28. 28
    SeaH says:

    The incentive in this era are very twisted. Until those go away and the correction occurs then it’s not prudent thing to be in the buy side .
    By Erik @ 21:

    RE: SeaH @ 16
    Right now is a scary time to buy your first home. In a free market, the forbearance would end and prices would drop. We are not in a free market and I expect the feds to continue to pushing prices up somehow, but that’s just a guess.

    Last time housing prices were about to crash, we loosened lending standards so that anyone could buy which pushed prices much higher. This time period could be like that again, right before housing prices really go up.

    You are probably right to wait it out. This is a scary time to buy, knowing a crash is coming at some point. Asset prices are going up and people are losing their jobs. That doesn’t make sense and cannot sustain.

  29. 29

    Time to Lift Your Killer Flu Contaminated Mug, Guzzle It All Down Anyway and Test Positive With No Symptoms..Read the brief:

    “…Amazon has a big plan to boost its Bellevue presence to 25,000 employees in a few years. The plan, which involves a second skyscraper and large new leases, would give Bellevue as many Amazon employees as Arlington, Virginia, the winner of the company’s second-headquarters sweepstakes…”

    SWE’s Take: Yeah at $16.45/hr average Indeed documented pay, Hades that isn’t even mean per capita pay in Seattle….like about $20/hr…a grim low paid sweat shop to work at on your feet all day…I’d stay on Seattle area unemployment as long as I could to avoid that slave shop work, wouldn’t you?

    https://www.indeed.com/q-Amazon-l-Seattle,-WA-jobs.html

    “…Seattle landlords are suing Mayor Jenny Durkan and Gov. Jay Inslee over city and state eviction moratoriums, saying the bans force landlords to “shoulder the burden of the pandemic.” Seattle’s moratorium has been extended to December to protect people who can’t pay rent…”

    SWE’s Take: Juststoppedby would call Seattle RE landlords a bunch of “screaming drunk SWEs” for fighting the Seattle Mayor Durkan hypocrisy this way…LOL

    “…Seattleites, you won’t have to pay that new tax on heating oil until fall 2021. The city has postponed it because of the pandemic….”

    SWE’s take: Who buys heating oil anymore, its all natural gas and electricity from my periscope. Moot point news article.

    “…”A godsend”: As Seattle business owners talk about how aid from the city gave them a fighting chance after the pandemic hit, their experiences seem to suggest many businesses will need additional help….”

    SWE’s take: That’s not what actual Seattle business owners tell us when we ask them face to face….many of their businesses have been looted, burned and destroyed..the City of Seattle does practically nothing to solve their HUGE violent demonstration remodeling cost problem…ask ’em…if they’re still in business with plywood sprayed graffiti over their closed businesses’ windows .

    Good News: The Wild Fire Smoke Air Pollution circled around Oregon to spare them.
    Bad News: Its circled around and now heading for Seattle anyway:

    https://mltnews.com/possible-california-wildfire-smoke-in-puget-sound-region-starting-thursday/#:~:text=Posted%3A%20September%202%2C%202020%203%20A%20plume%20of,quality%2C%20with%20moderate%20air%20pollution%20levels%20at%20most.

    YIKES!!!

  30. 30
    Juststoppedby says:

    By softwarengineer @ 27:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 13
    I Don’t Drink Alcohol

    I quit it years ago, it makes me fat.

    Are you and Bumble the same person?

    Nope, I have neither the time nor the level of interest that would be required for me to set up a second persona on this or any other site.

    And I didn’t say you were drunk, I said:

    “I’m at least 1/2 convinced that SWE is doing his best to impersonate a loudmouth drunk who is doing an impression of the actor Peter Weller (while constantly having a mouth full of crackers).

    Add in a bit of self absorbed millennial and you’ve got a dead ringer“

  31. 31
    Justsomedude12 says:

    I think it’s likely there will be widely distributed vaccines next year, and the Govt and the Fed will keep the markets propped up in the meantime. Thus no housing downturn.

  32. 32
    ruxpert says:

    Rising Prices, Low Supply Show Sellers in Control of Housing Market
    This Zillow Weekly Market Report includes housing market data as of the week ending August 29
    By Zillow; Sep 4, 2020
    https://www.dailyrecordnews.com/news/state/rising-prices-low-supply-show-sellers-in-control-of-housing-market/article_98362fd5-d741-5d21-bbeb-19c599de368b.html
    ===

    The Economy Continues To Unravel Despite All Stimulus Measures
    September 3, 2020
    https://www.activistpost.com/2020/09/the-economy-continues-to-unravel-despite-all-stimulus-measures.html

  33. 33
    Ohd1122 says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 31

    I think it’s likely that even if we get a vaccine wide distribution won’t happen in 2021. I’m not convinced the government can keep the camel’s back from breaking before then.

  34. 34
    Erik says:

    RE: SeaH @ 28
    I just care about predicting where prices are headed so I can make more money and I’m not trying to change the world. I think this insanity could go on 4 more years with fake money inflating housing prices. Is it worth waiting possibly 4 years of housing price increases to wait for a crash? I’m asking because that could be the future scenario for you.

  35. 35
    N says:

    I would argue that even with a vaccine tomorrow the economy won’t be back to January just like that – it will take years for things to be fully recovered across the board.

  36. 36
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 26
    It’s not worth arguing with you as you have a low financial intelligence.

  37. 37
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: N @ 35 – Even without any vaccine at all the current unemployment rate is only 8.4%. And it continues to drop. Keep in mind that even at what’s considered full employment the unemployment rate is still around 5%.

    Not to mention the fact that most of the currently unemployed are not in the potential home buying pool to begin with.

  38. 38
    Ohd1122 says:

    By justsomedude12 @ 37:

    RE: N @ 35 – Even without any vaccine at all the current unemployment rate is only 8.4%. And it continues to drop. Keep in mind that even at what’s considered full employment the unemployment rate is still around 5%.

    Not to mention the fact that most of the currently unemployed are not in the potential home buying pool to begin with.

    It was 3.5% in February. It’s now in line with previous recessions instead of wildly ahead. It’s true though that most of the individuals laid off ads probably not potential homebuyers (even if employed).

    We’re also in very late stages of business cycle expansion (for a lot of companies, for some we’re out of the expansion phase). Let’s see what happens if some of the explosive growth from these tech companies stalls.

  39. 39
    N says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 37

    You may have a point, maybe we will somehow weather this storm. On the other side maybe we will see job losses spread to corporate jobs – already we’ve seen some announce significant layoff announcements – Salesforce, Coca Cola, Boeing, CH Robinson, Wells Fargo, MGM Resorts, NBCUniversal, AT&T, Stanley Black & Decker, LinkedIn, American Airlines, Alaska Airlines, United Airlines, Raytheon, Schlumberger, Goldman Sachs.

    Even Amazon has cut their open job listings substantially (30%?)

    And many that aren’t laying off have freezed wages at least for 2020.

  40. 40
    Brianna says:

    RE: N @ 39

    There’s going to be a tsunami of retail stores going bankrupt soon. Those dominoes have already started falling. That would have to have an effect on the overall economy as well.

  41. 41
    David says:

    By Erik @ 34:

    RE: SeaH @ 28
    I just care about predicting where prices are headed so I can make more money and I’m not trying to change the world. I think this insanity could go on 4 more years with fake money inflating housing prices. Is it worth waiting possibly 4 years of housing price increases to wait for a crash? I’m asking because that could be the future scenario for you.

    Any investment property I buy will be held far longer than 5 years.

    I’m (gasp), considering a condo so I can liver further away from the property. I suppose ONLY FHA approved condos.

  42. 42
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 41
    Condos are my favorite investment. I own both houses and condos in Seattle, and I really like the condos. I would like to keep buying condos. I could be wrong, but I believe FHA approved condos require around 80% owner occupancy, so watch out for that. It would be terrible to buy a condo and then have the HOA tell you that you cannot rent it out because they are already at 80% occupancy. I wake up in the middle of the night having a panick attack over that scenario although it has never happened to me.

    Based on SeaH’s previous comments, I believe he or she is earlier in their investing career. You and I can afford to see our value go down for a while after we buy and we don’t really care because we can just continue holding the property longer. It’s a stronger position to be in. I believe SeaH is buying his or her first home and they need that value to go up right away.

    My first successful purchase I held for 2 years while I lived in it and fixed it up. I sold it an netted $100k and bought more units at the king County auction. For my first purchase, I couldn’t buy at the auction because I didn’t have the money to invest to do that. At this point in my investing career, my biggest concern is controlling more assets and I’m not so concerned about price fluctuations. Success for me is buying a house or condo, pulling all of my money out of the investment, and then having that unit cost me nothing to hold. I care more about the velocity of money and less about price fluctuations.

  43. 43

    RE: Erik @ 42

    Great Plan Erik…Clients all have Different Reasons to buy, the SWE type older folks 55+ now Control the 2nd home purchase arena, Young Millenial and Gen-Zs have been omitted from the Seattle market before Killer Flu in 2019, its getting to be an old peoples game in Seattle now. Get used to your older kids living in another state and get them out of your basements…

    https://money.yahoo.com/2019-housing-market-151141576.html

    Now, lift that coffee mug up and enjoy the brief:

    “… As school starts, Seattle-area parents find themselves in a new role: mental health responder
    Students, families and teachers across Washington state launched into an unusual, sometimes unnerving season of schooling in recent days. With parents stepping into critical new roles, schools and researchers are racing to understand how serious children’s mental health troubles might become. (Here’s crisis help for young people, and a Q&A on schools and mental health services.) Meanwhile, some schools are calling the outdoors their classroom. See how that looks, and find more back-to-school coverage…”

    SWE’s take: Add grandma/granddad free child care into the equation, so the single mom can partially care for her kids and you’d better hope the grandparents live long lives…or this house of cards comes tumbling down [paid day care alone is like $500-1000/week, especially for infants]. I’m unlucky because my son turned out severely mentally retarded and Autistic, now his sister is afraid to have kids, this is normal for siblings of disabled to react this way. At least I don’t have a single mom baby to care for until I die [I had that possible nightmare 14 years ago]…there’s always a Yin to a Yang…she’s also a 32 year old home owner now, and a housewife too. A Millenial lady’s Dream Life…ask ’em…

    “…A self-proclaimed antifa supporter who has said he worked security on behalf of Black Lives Matter protesters, was shot dead Thursday after he fled the Lacey apartment, got into a car and members of a fugitive task force stopped it, police said. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: He is also a past murderer, ask the DOJ/FBI that arrested him. He’s heading for a federal prison now…he crossed state lines to commit crimes in Portland…that’s a federal offense and needs Trump’s DOJ attention.

    “…Ron Willis, a Seattle patrol officer, became the most highly paid city employee last year. How? He was paid the equivalent of two years of work inside of one, renewing longstanding questions on how Seattle Police monitor overtime pay. Read more….”

    SWE’s take: Yeah $25/hr average pay for a Seattle cop is $150K/yr??? Try $50K/yr Seattle times,,,its documented in Indeed job data…stop making up high cop salary lies. The Seattle cops live in homeless tents too?

    “…You know what works well as takeout? A banh mi. The classic Vietnamese sandwich generally contains a trinity of pork, some crisp, fresh herbs and pickled veggies and creamy pâté. Our food critic tried 100 of them to declare his favorite 12 places to get a banh mi in the Greater Seattle area. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: The picture makes it look like a lettuce sandwich and pickles in a “burnt” hard french bread roll…I’ll pass…how much is it? $10 each without beverage? Try a prime rib sandwich at Arby’s instead…I’m getting a bunch of takeout there this morning to donate to the disabled home, I’m using a 40% off coupon too…much better. It covers my whole bill this Labor Day Weekend too.

    “…From Woodinville to the president’s thumbs, a false claim spread like a virus. The claim that only 9,000 people have died from COVID-19 was started by an Eastside chiropractor and then debunked by an Olympic Peninsula fact checker. Columnist Danny Westneat writes about how, in the two days between, it made its way to tens of millions of people. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: One doctor’s Killer Flu politics fits all sizes, as if all doctors agree with each other. That’s fake news. I hear You Tube is banning all doctors videos that prove that safe distancing does practically nothing to cure flu of any kind. DOJ needs to investigate this, we’re limiting free speech. Doctors opinions are doctors opinions….period.

    “…UW’s Huskies might play football in 2020, after all. The Pac-12 has a “groundbreaking” deal to test athletes every day for COVID-19. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: How about just take their temperature, if its under 102 degrees they don’t have the flu….period. Doctors are not gods or special, they all have different opinions.

    “…Washington high-school athletes are calling on the governor to reinstate a fall sports season. For some, the stakes are high for their collegiate future and family finances. The pleas are heartfelt and heartbreaking, but playing fall sports doesn’t align with COVID-19 realities, columnist Larry Stone writes. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: No one will hire them with just online schooling too.

    Good News: Its drizzling today and dark and cloudy. I see clouds in the forecast past Sunday too…I hope you’re not sleeping in a camp tent tonight, ya touch the cloth roof and the water sprays on your sleeping bags…hot weather ahead? LOL I’ve lived here all my life and Labor Day Weekend is mostly rain and colder 50 degree nights…like last night. If ya travel, get a hotel room instead. Find one with kitchens, there is no more ‘serve yourself” hotel buffet waffle breakfasts” any more since Killer Flu restrictions.

  44. 44
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: N @ 18

    How is 80% down a surprise? Isn’t the max allowed 25% of capacity or 75% forbidden to enter?

  45. 45
    ruxpert says:

    Colder than 50 degree nights, not good for The Killer Tomatoes!

    “We Are Entering Into A War Period” – Austin Fitts Warns “Nothing Will Ever Be The Same”
    Tyler Durden
    08/24/2020
    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/we-are-entering-war-period-austin-fitts-warns-nothing-will-ever-be-same

    Investment advisor and former Assistant Secretary of Housing Catherine Austin Fitts says big change is ahead of the world, and “nothing will ever be the same.” Fitts lays out the so-called “reset” you’ve…

  46. 46
    Whatsmyname says:

    NWMLS August stats are out. The All King County active SFR listings were lowest August in the 20 year chart, and down 38% YOY, even though new listings were up 35%. Pendings are up 35%; closed up 10%; prices up 11%, (to new all-time high of $743M). Lots of variances in the individual sub-markets.

  47. 47
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 43
    The more assets you control, the wealthier you can become. Keep buying more real estate and controlling more assets.

  48. 48
    Ohd1122 says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 46

    I think you mean 743k? Inflation hasn’t hit us that hard…yet.

  49. 49
    N says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 44

    Just saw your post. Certainly not a surprise, but a reminder of the economic pain. Things are not normal.

  50. 50
    uwp says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 46:

    NWMLS August stats are out. The All King County active SFR listings were lowest August in the 20 year chart, and down 38% YOY, even though new listings were up 35%. Pendings are up 35%; closed up 10%; prices up 11%, (to new all-time high of $743M). Lots of variances in the individual sub-markets.

    New listings were ~900 units higher than last year, but pending sales were ~900 higher YOY as well. It will be interesting to see if the typical “selling season” just gets shifted 2-4 months because of the pandemic, or if one of those two (higher new listings & higher sales) continues while the other does not.

    I don’t think anyone really has any idea. What a weird year.

  51. 51
    SEAH says:

    Well, i can wait 4 years. Cause yes, I need to know where prices are headed. I am picky about my money and I want my money to work for me.

    There is nothing about Renting, even 4 more years. My money can go else where say stock market. I done great. There is no need to rush, just need to be ready for that crash and Every curveball.

    Im in my 30s and a bachelor, I am want to continue to take advantage of every opportunity and risks. IF 2021 turns out to be a good year, then ill buy. But 2020 is out of currently of picture.

    Seattle is an expensive place to live; even eating out is expensive compared to LA. Certainly, buying a house should not compromise my way of life ( no way, I’m buying farther out to be stuck in traffic). Had I bought in November 2018, when mortgage rate was 5 %, the first month before Seattle went into a slight correction; the timing would been awesome. I don’t regret not buying. I still remember 2006 ( when i was still in high school ) When MBS ( mortgage backed securities ) popped up in the news and the saying “ buy now or forever be priced out .” By 2008 and then forward, it revealed how fragile so many Americans finances and housing.

    By Erik @ 34:

    RE: SeaH @ 28
    I just care about predicting where prices are headed so I can make more money and I’m not trying to change the world. I think this insanity could go on 4 more years with fake money inflating housing prices. Is it worth waiting possibly 4 years of housing price increases to wait for a crash? I’m asking because that could be the future scenario for you.

  52. 52
    SEAH says:

    I am in my early 30s and earlier in investing career. I am one of the few millennials i think is currently priced in this market. : ).

    Much respect to you, Erik for pulling it off during the Seattle housing boom. RE: Erik @ 42

  53. 53
    Erik says:

    RE: SEAH @ 51
    If I were in your situation, I’d probably be thinking the same thing. A lot of housing market gurus think a price decline is coming, they just don’t know when. The guy that runs this site, Tim Ellis, said he’s not convinced housing prices are going down, which is noteworthy. Tim is afraid of being wrong, so he doesn’t commit to predictions. I think prices will dump in 2024 for the record, but nobody really knows for sure.

  54. 54
    Erik says:

    RE: SEAH @ 52
    I’d recommend taking chances before you get married. It’s easier as a bachelor,

  55. 55
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Erik @ 53

    When? How long can they tell owners they can’t evict the tenants who aren’t paying rent? If the Democrats take the White House, will they pay that back rent? Biden mentioned it once awhile back, but that back rent is building up. How long can the banks go without payments? “I’ll pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today” only goes so far. Wells Fargo stock is down 50% YTD, other issues besides COVID, but still.

    If the government bails out all of the back payments the outcome will be different than if they don’t. That’s why it’s maybe never but likely yes.

  56. 56
    ruxpert says:

    What is Covid-19, SARS-2? How is it Tested? How is it Measured?
    Fear Campaign: No Scientific Basis
    Closing down the Global Economy as a means to combating the Virus.
    That’s what they want us to believe. If the public had been informed
    that Covid-19 is “similar to Influenza”, the fear campaign would have fallen flat…
    September 2, 2020
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/what-is-covid-19-sars-2-how-is-it-tested-how-is-it-measured-the-fear-campaign-has-no-scientific-basis/5722566

  57. 57

    RE: ruxpert @ 56
    Right On Ruxpert

    I’ll tell ya a little secret I learned about normal flu strain SOP and its predictable future to go on and on for years but give no one symptoms [102 degree fever] and yet can test positive for years anyway [just learned more clearly from the CDC graphs recently BTW]. Old folks in nursing homes get horrible bed sores that kill them off with infections and the nursing homes can’t afford decent care giving wages to like change the sheets or sanitize the horrible smells…they are charged with 3rd degree murder when this happens, ask DSHS. Since Killer Flu cases exist forever innocuously months/years after the strain effectively dies out [all flu strains do this], they falsely blame innocuous Killer Flu for horrifying nursing home care symptoms. Bed sores are HIGHLIGHTED in the care giver training manuals [I read them BTW] as the key infection item to cure ASAP, but it isn’t always cured and Killer flu hoaxes can help keep our state nursing home workers out of jail.

    Its a complete mess. Save your money folks, keep out of cheap nursing homes or possibly die sooner.

    11,000 in NYC nursing homes allegedly/recently died from Killer Flu…how about bed sores, diabetes, bad hearts, etc, etc….blame it all on Fake News Trump’s flu…LOL…BTW, its not Trump’s flu, its the Chinese Plague, where it originated. China supports Biden BTW and not Trump. High Tech American companies that outsource to China supports China/Biden over America too. Hades, without China producing solar cells and lithium batteries the whole implementation of any Green Deal in California by 2025 is a COMPLETE joke, no wonder they hate Trump calling it the real Killer Flu cause, the Chinese Plague…LOL….Tesla stock is plummeting too recently too. Its all politics folks and I hate politics.

    Hey, if I gotta wear a face shield to buy things, I might as well counter the insane politics with my own kinda flu muzzle:

    https://www.redbubble.com/i/mask/Trump-2020-Make-Liberals-Cry-Again-by-JG0024/49878494.9G0D8?ref=product-title&utm_campaign=2019_orderconfirmation_transactional_en&utm_medium=email&utm_source=RB&utm_term=38168814

    Give ’em out as Silent Majority birthday presents, almost all folks I meet in Kent would love receiving it as a present…LOL…a great way to enter a business now…LOL…if ya have to wear the lie, use it as political statement against the lie then.

    Now, get your “Babes for Trump” gift store coffee mug and fill it, read the brief:

    “…The pandemic doesn’t have to mean the death of office space, commercial real estate insiders say. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: The Seattle PI documents what the Seattle Times would never admit, a glut of recent Seattle office space rental/lease that’s getting much worse with Killer Flu lock downs.

    https://www.seattlepi.com/business/article/Higher-vacancies-seen-for-Seattle-office-market-1303246.php

    Maybe we can house the CHRONIC homelessness in Seattle?

    “…Tim Brittell is a 63-year-old teacher and prostate cancer survivor. His attitude toward reopening schools: Don’t play games with risk. As the president of the teachers union in Northshore, the first district to shut down to slow the spread of the coronavirus, one of his first moves was to poll union members’ chronic health conditions […] Read more. in them…”

    SWE’s take: Who is he voting for? Chicken Little fear mongering Biden? Finish the article or its partisan propaganda? I know the Seattle teachers union is a bunch of Biden lemmings…ask ’em…

    “…Washington state law bans nepotism in public service, but a top administrator was not seriously disciplined after hiring her nephew and daughter to work in her chain of command. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: She sounds just like Democrat Pelosi sneaking into a “closed” beauty salon without a flu muzzle…LOL

    “…The Gates Foundation has committed $650 million so far for treatments, vaccines and other public health measures to fight COVID-19. It’s the biggest contribution against the coronavirus from any independent foundation. But it’s only a fraction of the foundation’s resources and it’s attracted conspiracy theorists who spread false claims about Bill Gates and the virus. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: I thought all Gate’s charity money went to Africa to fight malaria with disinfectant cures containing chlorine? Perhaps this means the same thing? The Tooth Fairy knows.

    “…With many colleges having settled on a fall semester of mostly online classes, some students have decided that they’re better off deferring for at least the fall semester and enriching themselves in a host of different ways. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: Online schooling of any kind= UNEMPLOYMENT. Ask businesses that hire.

    “… What’s happening in the Seattle area Sept. 4-18: Fair food to go, SAL conversation with Margaret Atwood and more

    Miss the Washington State Fair? Set up some fun at home with games, exhibits, food and more…”

    SWE’s take: Fairs are closed too this month? Perhaps the depressions this causes means we all need to visit therapists more for CHRONIC DEPRESSION from root cause “useless/political” Killer Flu lock downs?

    Good News: The sky looks fairly clear and blue today….I hope the smoke clouds I saw Friday don’t return again with HOTTER west coast temperatures and severe droughts…time will tell…

    https://www.seattlepi.com/local/weather/article/labor-day-weekend-weather-western-washington-15543009.php

  58. 58

    RE: SnP @ 22
    Yes SnP

    Thanks for your honest comment on refinancing without any equity to use as a lien…the news represses this.

  59. 59

    Hey Tim

    Did you ever figure out how to fix your charts by including MASS foreclosures in the listings?

    I guess not.

  60. 60
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 55
    Answers are below in respectively with your questions:
    -2024, I think trump will win again and keep us going on fake money until he leaves office.
    -They are telling landlords they cannot evict until the end of the year, so 4 months. Although, any good attorney could evict a tenant anyway if they wanted as the law looks easy to get around.
    -I don’t believe sleepy Joe can win so I see no point on guess what would happen hypothetically. He has made too many mistakes.

    Landlords with a federally backed loan get a year of forbearance if they self attest that they need it. Landlords can go into forbearance on their entire portfolio if they want, so don’t feel bad for landlords, because landlords are raking in money right now. No proof required. Tenants do not get a year rent free.

  61. 61
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 56

    excerpt:
    ‘For many nations, a lower standard of living is the norm. For Americans, harmonization means we have a long way to fall yet. For the reset to take hold effectively in the US, globalists will have to misdirect various groups within the population in different ways in order to avoid revolt.’

    Trade War Provides Perfect Cover For The Elitist Engineered Global Reset
    http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/trade-war-provides-perfect-cover-for-the-elitist-engineered-global-reset_06292018

  62. 62
    Van Der says:

    RE: Erik @ 59

    THIS! if your a land lord, your probably doing AWESOME. No mortgage payments for a year. Trump is a real estate investor and he just handed other investors the biggest gift ever, FREE MORTGAGE.
    Renters on the other hand, screwed. If you can’t pay now, you can’t pay up in January, this is why home ownership by families is at an all time low, and investor home ownership is at a all time high. Who’s buying right now keeping the hot market hotter? INVESTORS! They are flush with cash! Just imagine all your tenants paying AND your get one year of free mortgage AND your got PPP because your a “business”.
    Rich get richer, poor get poorer.
    Capitalism for the poor, socialism for the rich.
    I’m disgusted when I read about the land lords here whining about eviction bans, your taking the forbearance but bitching about the eviction ban. You guys are monsters, and there is a hell, the problem is renters are living in hell NOW, but you land lords have to wait to die to go to hell. It’s funny, the same people here bitching about “socialism” take the forbearance and FREE PPP in a heart beat, because, you know, that’s not socialism, right?

  63. 63
    David says:

    By Erik @ 42:

    RE: David @ 41
    Condos are my favorite investment. I own both houses and condos in Seattle, and I really like the condos. I would like to keep buying condos. I could be wrong, but I believe FHA approved condos require around 80% owner occupancy, so watch out for that. It would be terrible to buy a condo and then have the HOA tell you that you cannot rent it out because they are already at 80% occupancy. I wake up in the middle of the night having a panick attack over that scenario although it has never happened to me.

    Based on SeaH’s previous comments, I believe he or she is earlier in their investing career. You and I can afford to see our value go down for a while after we buy and we don’t really care because we can just continue holding the property longer. It’s a stronger position to be in. I believe SeaH is buying his or her first home and they need that value to go up right away.

    My first successful purchase I held for 2 years while I lived in it and fixed it up. I sold it an netted $100k and bought more units at the king County auction. For my first purchase, I couldn’t buy at the auction because I didn’t have the money to invest to do that. At this point in my investing career, my biggest concern is controlling more assets and I’m not so concerned about price fluctuations. Success for me is buying a house or condo, pulling all of my money out of the investment, and then having that unit cost me nothing to hold. I care more about the velocity of money and less about price fluctuations.

    Do you only invest in FHA-approved condos? I can buy terrible crap houses from the 50s/60s in the $100s all day.

  64. 64

    RE: Erik @ 59

    I Predict If We Ever Get Our A_ses in Gear ASAP Training Boeing Manufacturing Engineering college degreed and high school diploma paid interns as on-the-job experience [that takes 5-10 years folks] to create journeymen and women with trade secret skills ya gotta get from Boeing. Microsoft too; they need to use our local talent high school and college talent in Seattle too as “paid interns” and create MSFT software engineers for S/W development in about 5-10 years to journeymen level. Colleges are useless when it comes to training trade secrets for Microsoft too. The Indeed hiring website documents this too for $120/yr S/W engineer source control folks, experience is mandatory. Degree or no degree…H-1Bs slave wage workers at MSFT are cheap but certainly not indispensable or have the magic journeyman skills no outsider has anyway. Especially preserving American national security trade secrets from foreign governments.

    This will be when Seattle home prices can take off like a enviable 2014 Dodge Charger rocket sporting the last 5 speed hot rod transmission FCA used [its all Jeep type 9 speed slower/heavier ones now]…Erik smiles….LOL…sounds like 2025-2030 is when we can have our next house price increase IMO, only if this CRITICAL “intern” Seattle area training starts now! Think about it.

    The unemployment rate at current lower level service wages is down from 24% to 8% this year and heading for like 5-6% by November 2020…its all good.

    Hey…SWE has a birthday in a week…so cut yourself a piece of SWE birthday cake to go with your mug of jaffa and read the brief:

    “… When will youth sports restart? For some, they never stopped
    Kaya Hanson, 15, talks with teammates before soccer practice with Seattle United’s Elite Girls National League last week. Practices with new COVID-19 protocols have “gone way better than I anticipated,” coach Dan Pingrey says. Some Washington sports teams are optimistic about moving toward gamelike activities this fall, while others have been able to play all along, even in a COVID-19 hot spot. (Photo: Bettina Hansen / The Seattle Times)..”

    SWE’s take: Yeah, girls soccer goes on and U of W Huskies terminated.

    “…Seattle has closed Gas Works Park in advance of a prayer rally planned for today. Christian worship leader Sean Feucht led a similar event last month that drew hundreds of people to Cal Anderson Park, violating the governor’s orders on gathering during the pandemic…”

    SWE’s take: If it had been a liberal “non-religious event” would they have closed the park? IMO, no. BTW, that HUGE approx $4M Hindu Temple [Kent, 132nd St] has stopped construction the last month with raw wood frame rotting in the rain now. Empty churches and temples are closed down and apparently so are charity donations…I saw a few cars in the old Hindu temple parking lot, its usually full. It would sure be a shame to see it rot forever…

    “… Layoffs and furloughs are forcing millions of people to soul-search and reassess their career choices. A growing number in the Seattle area, forced outside comfort zones, have changed careers and even returned to school in pursuit of longtime dreams…”

    SWE’s take: Last I saw in Covington yesterday was all “Help Wanted” signs on most of the open businesses, grab those jobs up now, while they’re still there? You Bubbleheads seeing “Help wanted” signs all over too? Why is this happening?

    “… What will happen to Seattle’s empty office towers when COVID-19 ends? The vacant space amounts to more than 700 football fields, by one estimate. Tenants, building owners and developers are scrambling to shift their plans…”

    SWE’s Take: We simply over built office space in Seattle for bulldozing down later?

    Good News: It might hit like 90 degrees by Thursday but the cool 70 degree 7PM evenings and 50 degree type mornings sure make it bearable…enjoy your Labor Day!!!

  65. 65
    David says:

    By Erik @ 59:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 55
    Answers are below in respectively with your questions:
    -2024, I think trump will win again and keep us going on fake money until he leaves office.
    -They are telling landlords they cannot evict until the end of the year, so 4 months. Although, any good attorney could evict a tenant anyway if they wanted as the law looks easy to get around.
    -I don’t believe sleepy Joe can win so I see no point on guess what would happen hypothetically. He has made too many mistakes.

    Landlords with a federally backed loan get a year of forbearance if they self attest that they need it. Landlords can go into forbearance on their entire portfolio if they want, so don’t feel bad for landlords, because landlords are raking in money right now. No proof required. Tenants do not get a year rent free.

    I went to look at a house yesterday and there were Biden signs on a few houses. Bad hood and overpriced crap house.

    50% of the population has a lower IQ than the other 50%. THE BULK of the lower 50% are Democrats or get their money from the Treasury.

  66. 66
    Erik says:

    RE: Van Der @ 62
    I couldn’t agree more. Trump is giving landlords lots of money and screwing renters. If you had 10 rentals in Seattle and weren’t paying mortgage for a year, you’d put at least $200k to put in your pocket. The world is not fair and workers that rent get screwed.

    Landlords should shut up and pocket the cash.

  67. 67
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 63
    I have FHA approved condos and non FHA approved condos. I prefer the non FHA approved condos because I don’t have to worry about the 80% owner occupancy and having to answer to the HOA to rent my unit.

  68. 68
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 64
    Washington still has the aerospace talent and I think when the new middle of the market airplane is launched it will be in Everett.

  69. 69
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 65
    I usually try to buy in nice areas because nice area attract good renters. Good renters make life easier.

    I’m waiting to see what happens before I buy anything. I’m not even buying a personal residence right now.

  70. 70
    northender says:

    RE: Van Der @ 62
    About investment property forbearance – a mortgage broker I’ve known for a long time and respect told me that forbearance would likely make it very tough to get a new mortgage. So if you’re done purchasing financed properties and know you won’t be refinancing then sure, take the forbearance. But if not, talk with someone you trust beforehand.

  71. 71
    Erik says:

    RE: northender @ 70
    You cannot get a mortgage during forbearance. The current rule per the cares act is that you must make 3 payments after mortgage forbearance has ended to get another loan.

    You gotta read the cares act, not talk to lenders or brokers. Lenders are lying to discourage borrowers from taking advantage of the laws because they have to pay the first 4 months of forbearance. That link I posted before goes through what lenders say and what the cares act says.

    I’m posting it for the 3rd time to try to reach the very pig headed people on here. Wake up!

    https://youtu.be/XX8vN79dCws

    There’s no such thing as investment property forbearance, you made that up. There’s just mortgage forbearance on federally backed loans.

  72. 72
    seaH says:

    Eric , can you chime in with Boeing and manufacturing. Why does it take so long to fix a problems 10 months in. ? What’s gonna happen to The Renton plant? RE: Erik @ 68

  73. 73
    Erik says:

    RE: seaH @ 72
    I’ve never worked at the Renton plant and do not have any inside knowledge, but I can tell you what I’ve read in the paper. I read a good article on the 737 debauchery in the New York Times a while back. The reason they said the plane crashed twice was because of the MCAS system, which is computer programming intended to help the plane fly safer. I would imagine that the problem was fixed quickly and now the plane has to go through a long gauntlet of testing required by the FAA. The FAA gave permission for this plane to fly with this glitch, so they look bad too. Now I’m sure the FAA is going to really dig deep and make Boeing jump through many hoops to get the plane back in the air. That’s what takes all the time, testing to get approval from the FAA to get the plane back up in the air. Another mistake could destroy Boeing and the FAA, so they need to make sure they get this right. Testing takes time.

    Boeing IAM employee’s agreed to get rid of their pensions in order to keep the 737 in Renton. I believe it was a 20 year deal, so the 737 isn’t going anywhere for a while.

    The Renton plant will stay in Renton, but there may be jobs lost. Renton wanted to produce 50 something planes per month. Because of the Ethiopian air and Lion air crashes, demand has decreased, lowering the rate to 30 something a month. Less planes produced means less jobs needed to produce.

  74. 74
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 56

    Dr. Birx – ‘people seeing it’s a scam / more difficult to get people to comply’ ?

    Dr. Deborah Birx:
    “When people start to realize that 99% of us are going to be fine, it
    becomes more and more difficult to get people to comply”
    Birx notes harm of virus fatigue; nerves fraying,
    by Frank E. Lockwood, John Moritz | August 18, 202
    https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2020/aug/18/birx-notes-harm-of-virus-fatigue/?news


    MEET THE UN-ELECTED BUREAUCRATS WHO HAVE TAKEN OVER THE WORLD
    Who the heck is the WHO?
    JAMES CORBETT EXPLAINS
    https://youtu.be/CAZ9KCNDSek

  75. 75
    ruxpert says:

    With $11B Ellie Mae deal finalized, ICE prepares to unleash a “fully digital mortgage ecosystem”

    Combined with MERS and Simplifile, ICE says it can fully digitize the lifespan of the mortgage process, from origination to close
    https://www.housingwire.com/articles/with-11b-ellie-mae-deal-finalized-ice-prepares-to-unleash-a-fully-digital-mortgage-ecosystem

    ===
    Heather Long
    @byHeatherLong
    Here’s the most alarming part of the August jobs report:

    Permanent job losses are rising.
    They hit 3.4 million in August — the highest since 2013.
    These Americans aren’t getting their old jobs back.
    https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1301868285521166336

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