Around the Sound: Still a dismal market for buyers everywhere

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Let’s take a look at our stats for the local regions outside of the King/Snohomish core. Here’s your October update to our “Around the Sound” statistics for Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

Things are looking pretty similar all around the Puget Sound region—extremely low supply, high demand, and skyrocketing prices. The one tiny bright spot for buyers is that new listings are higher than they were a year ago in every county.

First up, a summary table:

October 2020 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price $745,000 $579,972 $430,000 $437,000 $395,000 $449,000 $441,500 $474,450
Price YOY 12.9% 17.2% 17.8% 13.2% 13.4% 24.7% 17.6% 13.2%
New Listings 2,986 1,309 1,512 472 492 173 197 320
New Listings YOY 29.7% 20.6% 23.1% 27.9% 21.8% 29.1% 4.2% 4.9%
Active Listings 2,258 652 881 280 217 122 188 323
Active YOY -37.6% -59.2% -46.6% -42.5% -54.4% -60.3% -44.9% -51.4%
Pending Sales 3,007 1,403 1,658 524 549 182 219 331
Pending YOY 16.0% 12.4% 11.2% 10.3% 11.8% 16.7% -0.5% 2.2%
Closed Sales 3,027 1,438 1,520 527 522 179 232 344
Closed YOY 36.0% 36.0% 18.0% 28.9% 15.0% 32.6% 22.1% 19.0%
Months of Supply 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9

Median home prices were up in every single county from a year earlier. King County’s 13 percent increase was actually the smallest around the sound, while the largest price gains were in Island County.

Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

Year-Over-Year Change in Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

Here’s the one sort-of bright spot for buyers: New listings are on the rise, especially in King County.

New Listings of Single-Family Homes

However, active listings are down dramatically from a year ago in every county. The biggest decline was in Island County (probably no surprise then that prices are up the most there), where listings fell by 60 percent from a year earlier. King County saw the smallest drop, but was still down 38 percent.

Active Listings of Single-Family Homes

Closed sales were up across the board in every single county. The biggest gains were in King and Snohomish Counties, which both saw closed sales increase 36 percent from a year ago. Pierce and Thurston had the smallest gains at 18 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

Closed Sales of Single-Family Homes

Months of supply is just absolutely abysmal for buyers everywhere. Every single county less than one month of supply in October.

Months of Supply Single Family Homes

In summary: It’s still a pretty terrible time to be a home buyer, across the entire Greater Seattle Area.

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

5.00 avg. rating (97% score) - 6 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

1,767 comments:

  1. 1251
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1247 – Biden’s wealth is reported to be $9 million, putting him in the top 1.5% wealth precentile. I suppose if you are in the 0.1% wealth percentile, he is not rich, but most folks would consider him to be very rich.

  2. 1252
    Matt P says:

    By Blurtman @ 1248:

    RE: Matt P @ 1247 – Biden’s wealth is reported to be $9 million, putting him in the top 1.5% wealth precentile. I suppose if you are in the 0.1% wealth percentile, he is not rich, but most folks would consider him to be very rich.

    You’re right, I was thinking of Bernie. Still, the other 2 fit. He’s 78 making him part of the first wave anyway, and the country definitely needs the president vaccinated, no matter who he is (the outgoing one got the vaccine as well.)

  3. 1253
    Erik says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1245
    Shucks! Should have gotten a highly leveraged federally backed loan. The sweetest deal is nothing into the property and then milk the forbearance as long as possible.

    In 2020, I advised my old high school friend to buy and go straight into mortgage forbearance right after the cares act was passed, He called me yesterday complaining how everything went up over $100k in the past year and he can no longer afford a home. I reiterated that if he put down 5% and took mortgage forbearance, he could sell and probably profit $100k or more by now. He just isn’t money minded and that’s why he makes more than me and is dirt poor. He bought a very expensive chainsaw though that he may use a couple times.

    He reminds me of a lot of the software folks on this website. They make great money and insist on being a slave because that’s what they’ve been taught. Victims of their own mental prison…cough…Eastsider…cough…cough…

  4. 1254
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1248
    Biden had $30k net worth before he became VP. Now Biden and his family are millionaires.

    Trump’s net worth went down $700M while he was president.

    I wonder which one is more corrupt?

  5. 1255
    Beano says:

    RE: Erik @ 1250

    I love your takes.

  6. 1256
    northender says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1249
    Saying Sanders isn’t rich isn’t a slam dunk. Do you know how many houses he has?

    House in Vermont
    Lake house in Vermont
    Rowhouse in DC

    He reportedly paid cash for the lake house in the last couple years.

  7. 1257
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 1250:

    Shucks! Should have gotten a highly leveraged federally backed loan. The sweetest deal is nothing into the property and then milk the forbearance as long as possible.

    In 2020, I advised my old high school friend to buy and go straight into mortgage forbearance right after the cares act was passed, He called me yesterday complaining how everything went up over $100k in the past year and he can no longer afford a home. I reiterated that if he put down 5% and took mortgage forbearance, he could sell and probably profit $100k or more by now. He just isn’t money minded and that’s why he makes more than me and is dirt poor. He bought a very expensive chainsaw though that he may use a couple times.

    He reminds me of a lot of the software folks on this website. They make great money and insist on being a slave because that’s what they’ve been taught. Victims of their own mental prison…cough…Eastsider…cough…cough…

    I’m sure you support the Cali Squatter to fully take advantage of free housing loophole for as long as they can… That’s Erik’s way to get rich. Enough said.

  8. 1258
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1254
    That hurts Eastsider, that really hurts. You know, I come on here to help you simple minded software people and this is the thanks I get?

    I believe landlords and tenants should get the stimulus that they qualify for without hurting one another. Landlords qualify for a lot of stimulus in recessions, don’t hate them for that. The system is rigged to benefit landlords. That’s why I constantly tell you real estate is where it’s at.

  9. 1259
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1255 – Yup, but that’s exactly what you would do in that situation.

    “The sweetest deal is nothing into the property and then milk the forbearance as long as possible.” – Erik

  10. 1260
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Erik @ 1244
    “look at the facts and don’t listen to the media” is ironically a nonfactual message that you get from a certain kind of media. Where are you getting your facts?

    I am not “tricked”, and as a rule, I do not watch tv news, or even really the primary networks at all. It is better to get your basic education in history and economics at a university than from the internet – if only because it helps you weed through the garbage and recognize the better information. I think a lot of people with no direct connection to an industry will grab at some pretty weak sources because that’s all they can find. If you think Blurtman sees it all clearly, ask him about his experience and plans regarding real estate. I’d like to see you two reconcile on that one.

  11. 1261
    Beano says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1257

    I’d take the internet over any university. At some point so will everyone else.

  12. 1262
    MIKAL says:

    RE: Beano @ 1258 – This is for you, Blurtman, and Whatsmyname. … and maybe Eastsider. The 1258 comment could be right. There is irony in this comment but I could be right….. or wrong. Isn’t it strange to any of you that Tim hasn’t commented on this since what? October? Have any of you considered getting a life? All of this comes around or goes around but the real fear is that we will have another Great Depression. Anyone with a real stake in this won’t care. There is too much in place protecting all of the really rich’s money. I’m not talking about anyone with less than 100 million in assets. The people that post on this site really come down to those with balls, and those that think the next depression might get them a house in Clyde Hill. The news is you won’t be living in Clyde Hill.

  13. 1263
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1256
    This is what I meant to say:
    “The sweetest deal is nothing into the property and then DO NOT milk the forbearance as long as possible.”

    I must have mistyped that.

  14. 1264
    Blurtman says:

    There are many professional advice givers, hucksters and legitimate alike. I have been quite the risk taker, and have the bruises to prove it. But it is true that learning from less than optimal outcomess, as well as continuing to push forward, does breed success. This you can hear anywhere, but IMHO, it is true.

    Health – number 1. If that goes, it can drag down everything else. I’ve actually lost weight during the pandemic as I am WFH which removes barriers to exercise. I also have invested in equipment and actually use it. No excuses, no barriers. And I have been a non-preachy vegetarian for almost two years. Oat milk is actually good and if you’ve seen videos of industrial dairies,…

    Family and friends – number 2. Some would same number 1, but poor health can affect this, so I put health first.

    Wealth – well, wealth is freedom, and as the old saying goes, if you have to be miserable/ill/etc., better to be wealthy and miserable/ill/etc., than poor and miserable/ill/etc. RE investing can certainly be a path to achieving wealth. Of course, there are others.

    I’ll be exiting the hamster wheel in a few months, and hoping to become USA trash traveling around Europa, while keeping a paid for home in the USA.

    Motion is life. Stasis is death. So keep taking risks and don’t forget to enjoy the journey, even if it gets a little hairy. And keep that sense of humor.

    – If you like this post, please subscribe to Hallmarkcardlife.com.

  15. 1265
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 1260:

    This is what I meant to say:
    “The sweetest deal is nothing into the property and then DO NOT milk the forbearance as long as possible.”

    I must have mistyped that.

    Hahaha…

    “I’m hoping for 24 months of mortgage forbearance. I need a boat!” – Erik@1123

    “Think about this… If you had 20 negative cash flow properties in Seattle and took 15 months of forbearance on them, you’d net about $600k just by virtue of owning them and applying for forbearance. ” – Erik@1191

    “The Cali couple needs to take mortgage forbearance. They can get 15 months now if they have a federally backed loan. I would guess forbearance increases to 18 months next as the forbearance period comes to an end again.” – Erik@1243

  16. 1266
    Eastsider says:

    Erik should really move to Europe… Or maybe this is a preview of what’s coming here.

    With Negative Rates, Homeowners in Europe Are Paid to Borrow
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-negative-rates-homeowners-in-europe-are-paid-to-borrow-11616664600

    Paula Cristina Santos has a dream mortgage: The bank pays her.

    Her interest rate fluctuates, but right now it is around minus 0.25%. So every month, Ms. Santos’s lender, Banco BPI SA, deposits in her account interest on the 320,000-euro mortgage, equivalent to roughly $380,000, she took out in 2008. In March, she received around $45. She is still paying principal on the loan.

  17. 1267

    RE: Eastsider @ 1263

    Stimulus checks will fuel Seattle Real Estate Price recovery in Apparently hodge podge fashion?

    I read that the federal letter they sent the Social Security disabled like my adult severely mentally retarded son can watch the Stimulus 2.0 $600 check disappear [lost] and will not be able to get it replaced….meanwhile, the Stimulus 2.0 $1400 portion just was now Direct Deposited to him when I filed the unnecessary 1040 last February for him….I wrote down the Direct Deposit to his checking on the unnecessary 1040….the 2nd half of the Stimulus 2.0 $1400 finally arrived. That’s how ya do it.

    Fill out the unnecessary paperwork like Erik does and get the $CASH$…..the dedicated administrator gets the worms? Do something the Lemmings would never do and it works? LOL What a mess. Make sure your retired parents got their’s too….tell ’em how.

    I’m gonna have to upgrade his food budget to steaks now….he deserves Killer Flu $CASH$ treats too in his disabled lock down agency home, it is money well spent.

  18. 1268
    N says:

    I was surprised to see Seattle on the list of cities with high FHA loan delinquent rates at 15.7%. Houston above 22% yikes! No problem if they come out of forbearance with income and pay the mortgage but still something tells me in some parts of the country that might not be the case where service industry folks could more easily buy with FHA due to lower price points.

  19. 1269
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1262
    I want Seattle bubble people to prosper and these are ways they can. I jumped from in debt and maxing our credit cards to investing. It’s not easy to make that leap. Conventionally, people take it slow and work their way up to that if they ever make it. In my opinion, that’s a waste of time. Go for the throat! The ideas I provide are intended to help others get out of the place I was at and into the money. To do that, people need a clever escape strategy, which I’m trying to provide them.

  20. 1270
    Erik says:

    RE: Beano @ 1252
    Thank you Beano. I’m a worker that’s trying to think more business minded. Business minded people win and workers lose in this world.

  21. 1271
    Erik says:

    RE: MIKAL @ 1259
    Yes, it comes down to who has bigger balls. Every time I bought a house or condo, people on here were screaming “Real estate is going to collapse soon and we’re all gonna die!!!!” If people stopped giving a f&$@ and just bought houses to rent out they’d likely be wealthy. Seattle Bubble is full of weenie babies that are too scared to buy. They come on here to rationalize their fears.

  22. 1272
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1266 – I have no issue with people wanting to be a landlord. But some advice you give here are downright unethical and borderline illegal. You may have no qualms about gaming the system “to the max” but most people would find it objectionable.

    “In 2020, I advised my old high school friend to buy and go straight into mortgage forbearance right after the cares act was passed” – Erik@1250

    What kind of ‘friend’ would give such advice?

    “The best terms will go to the people that ride forbearance to the end as they are seen as highest risk to our fragile economy. You could end up with 24 months of forbearance and then a super low mortgage rate as a special Covid discount if you push it to the end.” – Erik@766

    “…maybe the buyers plan to buy and go straight into mortgage forbearance for 15 months? That would turn a bad deal into a good deal for an investor.

    I’m not saying anything about what’s ethical or not. What I’m saying is that if the borrower could pull out $100k from mortgage forbearance,…” – Erik@774

    Even you recognize your advice is unethical.

  23. 1273
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1269
    I haven’t broken any rule or done anything illegal. I have done nothing unethical. I am completely within all of the rules.

    I provide high quality stress free living to people.

    On another note, I’ve helped 7 engineers from Puget Sound get a job. The skill team and leadership send me names and I work to help them stay employed during these difficult times. A while back, you accused me of having no heart for laid off engineers. I’ve helped more engineers stay employed than anyone I know.

  24. 1274
    Matt P says:

    Being in forbearance isn’t the easy choice you make it seem. You still have to pay it back at some point. You also would have missed out on the lowest interest rates since you need at least 3 on time payments after bringing your loan current in order to refi.

  25. 1275
    Azucar_80127 says:

    By Erik @ 1270:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1269
    I haven’t broken any rule or done anything illegal. I have done nothing unethical. I am completely within all of the rules.

    There is a difference between something being legal and something being ethical. The fact that you don’t seem to acknowledge that says something about your ethics.

  26. 1276
    Azucar_80127 says:

    By Erik @ 1251:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1248
    Biden had $30k net worth before he became VP. Now Biden and his family are millionaires.

    Trump’s net worth went down $700M while he was president.

    I wonder which one is more corrupt?

    It’s impossible to know, as one of them has refused to release his tax returns so they can be examined.

  27. 1277
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1270

    “Buy and go straight into mortgage forbearance”.

    How about “rent and go straight into eviction moratorium?”

    Tim should boot you out of here.

  28. 1278
    Erik says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1271
    Right, people that took forbearance missed out on the lowest interest rates ever. That’s a downside.

  29. 1279
    Erik says:

    RE: Azucar_80127 @ 1272
    Nice to see you again sugar.

  30. 1280

    RE: Erik @ 1251

    Trump Dumped His 747 Recently

    Too expensive to fix. Obsolete parts. He cancelled the new 747 Presidential Jet contract…too expensive, he’d know too.

  31. 1281
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1274
    Wow, you’re tough. I’ve done nothing wrong!

    It’s you wealthy software people that don’t want poor people to get ahead. You want to keep them poor. I want to help them change their financial future. Tim use to post the same stuff, he generally wanted to maintain status quo where rich get richer and poor get poorer. I was a poor struggling aerospace engineer when I started on here and I want to help other poor people out if I can. Being poor sucks and I don’t wish that on anyone.

    Rich people like you are all the same. You have a paid for house in redmond and cash big software checks. In your spare time you try to keep the poor man down. Don’t you have any empathy for the less fortunate?

  32. 1282
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1277
    The 747 is an old bird. I tried to get on air force 1. Glad I didn’t get on if they canceled it.

  33. 1283
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1274
    I got laid off from my job because of Covid. I had a baby on the way and mouths to feed. The whole thing was stressful and financially draining. I had to move across the country to stay employed so I could continue feeding my family.

    You may not have any sympathy for people that are less fortunate, but I do. Go ahead and sit in your paid for Redmond mansion cashing big software checks. Stop casting stones at poor people. You should be trying to help them as I’m doing, not trying to keep them poor.

  34. 1284
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1280 – You lost me here. What does it have to do with my comment @1274?

  35. 1285
    OA says:

    By Azucar_80127 @ 1273:

    By Erik @ 1251:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1248
    Biden had $30k net worth before he became VP. Now Biden and his family are millionaires.

    Trump’s net worth went down $700M while he was president.

    I wonder which one is more corrupt?

    It’s impossible to know, as one of them has refused to release his tax returns so they can be examined.

    How would examining tax returns reveal net worth? Tax returns are for taxing your current income, this has nothing to do with net worth.

    And anyone here that has rental property knows the number of tax incentives that real estate provides, which means that on a relative basis Trump pays very little tax.

  36. 1286
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1281
    Poor people need to take advantage of government programs. You make big software money and don’t care about others because you are getting yours. You don’t understand because you have never been in that position.

    The person I’m talking to is in debt and will never be able to afford a home. He has 2 kids and a wife he can’t stand. I want to see him happy and be able to retire at some point and not have to worry. Like I said, you only care about yourself and it’s obvious. I care about others that are less fortunate.

  37. 1287
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1281
    Your the rich guy trying to keep poor people poor by discouraging them to get the help they need and I’m unethical.? You’re a real piece of work.

    That’s what keeps me on here. High paid software slaves are trying to keep people poor by giving bad information. You chose to be a higher paid slave, so own it. I’m telling people that being a high paid slave is not the way to go. Investing in real estate will get them much wealthier, much faster. You should be ashamed of yourself for being so fortunate and trying to keep people poor people suffering. You have the ethics problem, not me.

  38. 1288

    RE: Erik @ 1283
    You’ll Never Convince the Investors to Gamble a little Erik

    Even though all the rich ones did.

  39. 1289
    chip&dip says:

    RE: Erik @ 1284 – Well jump in. If you are the wiz kid and parroting Kiyosaki on Tim’s blog, put action behind your bellows.

  40. 1290
    Erik says:

    RE: chip&dip @ 1286
    Read my previous comments party snack, it’s all there. Getting your first couple rentals is the toughest part, after that it’s just rinse and repeat. I’m helping my friends figure out how to get that money to get the ball rolling by suggesting they take mortgage forbearance if they qualify. It’s very difficult for people that don’t make that much to get started. Once you got some money and understand the process, it’s easy.

    Do you need help? Start out with a primary in a nice growth area. Take the mortgage forbearance if you qualify. Then rent your primary out and buy something new with, owner occupied, with the forbearance money and move into it. Now you have a primary and a rental. Pull HELOC money out of the first rental for a down payment on a new house and rent the second house out. By now, you are probably leveraged pretty high so your stress may temporarily be elevated and you’ll just have to deal with that.

    At this point you own 3 homes in nice areas and you have options. Sell one if you get scared and want a few hundred thousand dollars. That’s what I did, just sold rentals that I had a lot of equity in to buy more rentals and pay off debt. I did it the slow way and sold so I always had enough money just in case. I’m probably over conservative, but I keep working the side gig.

    I’m not some high leveraged fast talking investor. I was a stress analysis aerospace engineer that thought hard and found this very lucrative safe path, so that’s my side gig. I’ll do this on the side until I can get $10k/mo with zero debt from passive rental income. Anyone can do it. It takes a longtime, but the money is a lot faster than working for it.

    The one special thing I do is buy at the auction. I buy low, do a nice remodel, and rent out with 25% instant equity. This speeds up the path to financial freedom but isn’t required.

  41. 1291
    Erik says:

    RE: Erik @ 1287
    It’s those first 2 or 3 that are a pain because you gotta move to get that 5% down financing. Plus, you can remodel stuff yourself while you live there like I did to cut costs. Skip around a few years and get your property managers, CPA, loan guy, and remodel guys in place. Then it’s more about finding those deals and buying in the right areas. For me, it’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon. Need to take a year or off? That’s fine. Get back to buying more rentals as soon as possible.

    Do that for 10 years and I’m sure you’ll be in a great spot financially. Instead of taking on more responsibility at work, you will want less so you can spend more time doing what is most lucrative for you…making great investments.

  42. 1292
    IsErikRichYet says:

    I’ve caught up on this thread and what I’ve learned is that I should switch from software to stripping. See you at the club, boys! Don’t forget your masks, I only have one extra.

    I’ll follow up once I have six condos and I’m paying $4k a month in condo fees.

  43. 1293
    chip&dip says:

    RE: Erik @ 1287 -No thanks. You go ahead. Since it’s easy- do it. Jump. Get three more under your belt. It’s easy. Come back on here and tell us how easy it was. Since you are here to teach us the Kiyosaki bible you preach from.

  44. 1294
    Erik says:

    RE: chip&dip @ 1290
    I am flying into Seattle in July to buy more rentals. 3 is my lofty plan, but it all depends on the deals being offered at the auction. A big remodel could take my entire 3 months.

    It’s a challenge to get the deals and get the remodel done. After that, I pass it off to my property manager and my wife does the accounting and I relax.

    My last auction property I bought in Rainier View at the auction in 2019 was a big remodel. I talked about it in detail on this site. It was the one where I evicted the felon and the wife threatened to sue me and died of a drug overdose shortly after. I stayed at the remodel on an air mattress and talked about it on this site.

    At the same time I was doing that Rainier remodel, I was also remodeling my primary in Camano Island, which is now a rental as well. It’s my only rental outside of Seattle.

    I’m not saying everything is easy. Once you establish a rental and get the remodel right, it’s easy and very lucrative to rent the house or condo for years. I don’t even think about some of my rentals anymore with long term tenants. I would guess some of my tenants stay forever and that’s a beautiful thing.

  45. 1295
    Erik says:

    RE: IsErikRichYet @ 1289
    I’ve never seen a software worker that anyone would pay to see naked. If you can earn money doing something fun, go for it.

  46. 1296
    Erik says:

    RE: chip&dip @ 1290
    Come down to the king county auction on July 9th party snack. I stand back on the fringes and talk to agents and a couple people at the auction in the know. I’ll be busy evaluating deals, but you can say hello. Just say hello Erik, I’m the party snack from sea bub.

    You seem like another angry software person. Once you meet me, I think you’ll stop pushing your anger towards me because I’m a very nice person. I’m not sure if software attracts angry people or makes them that way, but stress analysis is kinda the same deal. The field just has a lot of unhappy people. I think it’s not healthy to sit by yourself all day with earbuds in and that makes for unhappy software workers.

  47. 1297
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 1293 – Goon squad BASH!!!

    https://i.imgur.com/SGb6ZOH.mp4

  48. 1298
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1294
    I can only take so much weak behavior and then I attack.

  49. 1299
    Voight-kampff says:

    For years people have been questioning and doubting Erik and his method of leverage and property acquisition, but in those same years there is no doubt about what has actually happened. Prices Continued higher and he has increased his net worth dramatically. I understand myself enough to know that I’m too prone to stress and anxiety to do exactly as he does, but there is no denying his method up to this point.
    As he continues, his risk actually decreases as he is essentially dollar cost averaging by buying at many points during the cycle.
    Having worked hard and been poor myself, I cheer for people like Erik. What is unethical are the “traditional” methods perpetuated to acquire wealth, They are an illusion designed to enrich others while keeping you a cog in the machine. Erik is searching for a way out of that machine, and I’m giving him a huge high-five!!!

  50. 1300
    Tim S Kane says:

    Look I’m conservative but there is a reason why I want to let people know of the risk of Leverage . Erik and I have a lot in common but we differ on this issue. Housing prices have risen. The market moved up, came down/paused, sales and refi’s started to soften, etc. and the common denominator to keeping the churn going is that rates have dropped and dropped and dropped. The sales to refi ratio has turned again and now sales are exceeding refi’s due to rates moving up. My kid works for a lender in Phoenix and has also confirmed this.

    If I do the opposite of 50% of everything I have seen in the real estate biz, I’ll have less stress and be fine. I have seen as much if not more losses in leveraged deals that have come my way than not. I have been heavily involved in closings where the lender was local hard money (I don’t have to name them. some of you know and use them). Like hedge funds keeping huge blocks of inventory off the traditional market in years past, so too were a couple of them not allowing their distressed property to be recorded as such. It is easy to do and changes to Beneficiaries or Trustees and even “non-traditional or false” Reconveyances are recorded and hidden in plain sight via public records, like following a bread crumbs trail. This was circa 2017-2019 not 2007-08. All that happened was time on market to sell increased among other things.

    If people want to use leverage to the moon and they can manage it….good for you, God Bless. I cannot argue with success. But the idea of using leverage has high risk. To take a recent non real estate example: The stock ViacomCBS (VIAC) losses are breathtaking this past week and for a couple of people I know that have options using leverage on this stock it is just crushing to them. What am I going to say to them when our paths cross? ‘So, how’s it going?’ Reminds me of the awkward conversations with a couple of my neighbors who’s homes went into foreclosure around me after I would casually say that the market was on borrowed time. I wasn’t their most favorite conversationalist or real estate was a non-starter for conversation. Naturally, both were in real estate.

  51. 1301

    RE: chip&dip @ 1290
    Rent Forgiveness Extended 4 More Months With COVID 2.0 stimulus bill:

    Then we need another Trillion dollars’ packed with goodies not related to Killer Flu to extend it another 4 months, etc….etc…infinitum…

    There’s hope the schools will open in 2025 and not spend stimulus money to give the laid off teachers bonuses for not working….life just isn’t fair?

    Ignore politics and grab as much free $CASH$ as ya can before taxation and inflation eats it all up?

  52. 1302
    Matt P says:

    Claiming forbearance when you do not need it is fraud. If you’re using forbearance to then buy additional properties, you obviously do not need it. You are playing with fire by doing this. Also, unless you somehow have tons of cash lying around you can’t buy additional properties because no one will lend to you while you are in forbearance, so I’m not sure how this master plan works.

  53. 1303
    Erik says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1299
    Hey Matt, the friend I’m giving advice to and I both qualify for the help through the cares act, and thank you for looking out for us and our best interests. I’d refer you to the cares act and look at the requirements to take loan forbearance for more information.

  54. 1304
    ruxpert says:

    The Schitt’s Creek Motel Has Officially Hit the Market
    — and It Could Be Yours for $1.6 Million
    https://people.com/home/the-schitts-creek-motel-has-officially-hit-the-market-and-it-could-be-yours-for-1-6m

  55. 1305
    Blurtman says:

    10 year at 1.72%.

  56. 1306
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1298
    Snap up that cash before it goes away. The next downturn could be the real one and you definitely want cash for the big one.

  57. 1307
    Erik says:

    RE: Tim S Kane @ 1297
    I’m too conservative to only count on my earned income to live.

  58. 1308
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 1296 – I think you might be confusing debt with wealth. As he has described to everyone here ad-nauseam, he uses the money from his W-2 job to cover the difference between what his condos cost him each month and what his renters are willing to pay.

    His strategy relies on speculation, timing, bubbles, and government bailouts for return. I’ll take ‘traditional’ strategies over that any day of the week.

  59. 1309
    Blurtman says:

    Yup, the arguments against are cogent, but, the longer you have been at an investment strategy in a rising market, the worse off a drop will affect you, versus the newbie who just jumped in. For example, as we are approaching a 40,000 Dow, a 20% drop takes you to 32,000. While that would be devastating to the margin buyer who got in at 39,000, the longer term investor who got in at 20,000 would be less wealthy but still well off.

  60. 1310
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 1305

    Can you please list your investment strategies that are not reliant on speculation, timing, bubbles, and government bailouts for return. I am sincerely curious how you put your money to work in our current environment.

  61. 1311
    Erik says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 1305
    I haven’t subsidized rent with my w2 income ever. I use profits from my home sales to subsidize any loss in cashflow. On that first condo when you were cyber bullying me, I was poor and barely scraping by. I got paid $128k on that Kirkland condo sale and became addicted to real estate and bought more at the auction. I bought a condo to live in on alki point and several other properties in Seattle. Then I sold the one on alki point that I bought with the proceeds from that original Kirkland condo. That was a nice $346k payday. I lived there a couple years, rented it out a couple years. That’s not net, because I know that is going to be the next thing you say to try and punch holes in my story. I did a nice inexpensive condo remodel on both properties and paid some assessments. But even after that, I’m still up over $400k on both home sales because I invested in my home.

    If people buy smart, $346k can buy a lot more real estate. I bought some really nice 4br houses in high appreciation areas since that alki sale which have a lot of equity. I put the rest of money into Tesla before the split and I again have another large pool of money to buy more houses or condos in Seattle.

    People on here need to understand that housing is absolutely a great investment if you buy in great areas and get great deals. I would argue it’s much more profitable than a job although you need a job to get loans in the beginning. The code monkeys will tell you opposite, but they are wrong and I’m living proof. I’ve made a ton of money investing in my primary residence and plan to make a ton more in real estate. Now I control millions of dollars in real estate in Seattle that just continues increasing my net worth every year while I go to my W2 job.

    I fight with all the code monkeys that lie to readers telling them a home is not an investment and I just think how foolish you people are. Selling my homes and using the proceeds to buy rentals took me from a negative net worth to north of a one million dollar net worth in 10 years. I’m not even counting my 401k because that is just a savings accounts for people that don’t understand investing. 401k’s are too diversified and grow so painfully slow. My 401k will probably end up being used for vacations because we won’t need it.

    You are the person that most aggressively tried to bring me down when I was going through my financial transformation. You represent the swamp of code monkeys that don’t understand money that give terrible advice. I don’t see what you get out of it, but you are not helping people, you are hurting them with bad information.

  62. 1312
    ruxpert says:

    Higher taxes, interest rates are inevitable; ‘Things will get crazy’ – Gareth Soloway
    March 29, 2021
    https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-03-29/Higher-taxes-interest-rates-are-inevitable-Things-will-get-crazy-Gareth-Soloway.html

  63. 1313
    ruxpert says:

    MeetKevin:
    The Fed’s Coming Market Crisis | Warning for Next Week!
    Mar 28, 2021
    https://youtu.be/sBHJLKH19j8

  64. 1314
    Eastsider says:

    From WSJ –

    U.S. Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 15 Years
    S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index increased 11.2% in year ended in January, highest rise since February 2006
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-home-price-growth-accelerated-in-january-11617109259

    U.S. home prices are rising at the fastest pace in 15 years, reflecting how fiercely buyers are competing for a limited supply of homes in nearly every corner of the country.

    From small cities like Bridgeport, Conn., to large ones like Seattle, prices have been steadily moving higher. Two closely-watched house-price indicators released Tuesday posted double-digit national price growth, demonstrating the widespread strength of the market.

  65. 1315
    Eastsider says:

    A couple comments on the WSJ story –

    The last time home prices increased so much was in 2006, just before the housing crash. The elephant in the room today is interest rate which is rising rapidly in recent months. M/M price change will likely turn negative before summer is over.

    You’ll have to be pretty ‘brave’ to invest in money losing investment properties today and count on price appreciation to outpace income loss. That is not a business plan.

  66. 1316
    ruxpert says:

    Policy makers are worried that the world may be heading for another housing crash.

    Home prices across globe hit records, prompting worries of bubble
    Economists cite differences from the last crash
    March 29, 2021
    https://therealdeal.com/national/2021/03/29/home-prices-across-globe-hit-records-prompting-worries-of-bubble/

  67. 1317
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 1307 – I don’t think people associate Warren Buffett with ” speculation, timing, bubbles, and government bailouts for return.” That said, it takes a lot of hard work to become wealthy.

  68. 1318
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1314

    Fair enough, and I agree about hard work, but Warren Buffett has not continually visited this blog criticizing Eriks strategy. Furthermore, Warren Buffett absolutely must speculate about timing, bubbles and government bailouts as it is the reality we live in. Erik is completely transparent, and has detailed exactly how he has invested in the past and present. If we had all listened to Erik for the many years he’s been saying to buy Seattle real estate, we all would have made bank, you know it and I know it. So you believe housing is not a good investment. I’m curious how eastsider and wreckingbull and other “Erik detractors” invest.
    Sitting on the sidelines is a strategy.
    Is that what you do?
    If so, For how long?
    Gold, guns, Bitcoin?

  69. 1319
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 1315
    If RE is so easy, why did so many people lose their (“investment”) properties to short sales and foreclosures in the last housing crash?

    You don’t have to “time” the market is you have a working P&L. You can’t today. But why paddle forbearance as a “business plan”?

  70. 1320
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1316

    I didn’t say RE was easy.
    I essentially said Eric has been demonstrably right,
    And you and others have been demonstrably wrong regarding real estate.
    I understand your reluctance to jump into RE at today’s prices, and you clearly have an opinion on what isn’t a good investment, so what’s your opinion on what is a good investment?

  71. 1321
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 1317 – Show us a viable business plan. Forbearance is not a business plan.

  72. 1322

    Don’t Get Tax Reductions Mixed Up With Welfare Quantitative Easing

    They may produce the same instant results, but long-term planning with QE is FOG.

  73. 1323
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1318
    Forbearance is an option. Exercising options is often a great idea. Ok, so you’re sitting on the sidelines, good luck!

  74. 1324

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 1320
    Pending Home sales Plummet March 2021

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/pending-home-sales-february-2021-140019067.html

    The tide changes in a flash-pan in this unusual Pandemic housing market.

    Interest rates increasing.

  75. 1325
    Abuyer says:

    As someone who is a buyer, actively making offers I am not sitting on the sidelines and I am feeling like I’m in the game, but its constantly changing and I am having to keep adjusting to the new ‘rules’ (and I’m not referring to just pricing).

    This is probably a question for the agents and Tim Kane (Escrow), but how is it that properties will keep appraising at this rate? I was involved in a recent multiple-offer situation where I wasn’t the highest offer (strictly on an offer price basis) but I was willing to cover a low appraisal to a certain amount. I was also the only offer that was putting 20% down. The listing agent was looking for a buyer to waive their appraisal contingency all-together. I was willing to kick in quite a bit more to cover low appraisal, but it started feeling uncomfortable to me, to be sinking SO much cash in (imo). Maybe I’ll become more comfortable with it next time. I’m not talking about 40-50k here, I’m talking about 150-200k.

    I recently put an offer (didn’t get it) that closed at 30% above the redfin estimate (the redfin estimate seems reasonable, based on other comps). So my question comes back to this….how are people getting these appraised (especially condos and townhomes that have virtually identical comps) and is there a point where things slow down a bit because it gets more difficult for buyers to bring an extra few hundred grand to the table?

    I had an agent tell me “don’t worry, everything is appraising” but speaking to my mortgage broker and other agents, they are saying differently. It would be a tough place to be in to have a low appraisal and have waived the contingency, and then be faced with either losing 50K of earnest $ or coming up with an extra 100K for low appraisal.

    Thoughts?

  76. 1326
    Abuyer says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1321

    pending home sales are plummeting due to decreased inventory. The better stats to look at would be, is time on the market increasing, and is inventory increasing? The answer to both of those is “no”.

  77. 1327
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1318
    Reread my comments. My business plan I explained in detail took me from paycheck to paycheck to over a million dollar net worth in under 10 years with less than a 6 figure income.

  78. 1328
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1321 – What you want to do is to read your full article.

    “The number of homes for sale, otherwise known as inventory, fell to a record low of 1.03 million units in February, the same as in January, according to revised NAR data. That was down 29.5% from one year ago — the largest annual decline on record. Typically you see an increase in inventory from January and February but that did not occur this year, according to Yun. The tight supply is pushing home prices up to new record levels.”

    A little different in King County. Inventory was down 17%. However, if you are not interested in condo’s, KC sfr inventory was down 41%. Inventory level was 0.63 months. That is not a weakening market based on rising rates; that is scarcity. You can’t buy what isn’t for sale.

  79. 1329
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1312
    In 2006 inventory levels were climbing pretty dramatically. Today, they are going down.
    FRED affordability rate is better than anytime during 2020, and they are using 4.5% interest.
    P&L is a different critter than cash flow, but at the right leverage you can have both… today.
    And with enough liquidity, it doesn’t really matter.
    I can understand not having an interest in real estate. But if no interest, why so many posts?

  80. 1330
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 869

    Our buddy Greg says FED has control of interest rates
    (nothing to worry about until FED Wants to raise rates to unleash hell ;-)
    This Is A Set Up.. Market Poised For A Big Move. BE READY! Mannarino
    Mar 30, 2021
    https://youtu.be/vZD4HXV2ng8

  81. 1331
    ABuyer says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1323

    I completely agree, the article is reporting sales slumps because there’s nothing to sell. I have been seeing more headlines reporting low sales, but using the term “sales slumps” or “slowdowns” and it makes me wonder if those that are waiting to sell their homes as prices increase will start to get spooked by these headlines…..many many people only read headlines and not the meat of the article. There’s some psychology to what’s going on.

  82. 1332
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1322 – Your investment coincides with the greatest bull market in housing. It is impossible to lose money if you bought in 2010-2015. Had you bought in 2006-2007, the opposite would have been true. And you lost big in 2007.

  83. 1333
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1326
    Right, I’m a no talent ass clown. I’m not saying I’m great, I’m saying anyone can do it. That’s what makes it even better, any idiot can do it. It’s so simple, it’s stupid and I want to tell people. It’s a mindset thing you don’t currently have.

    I understand timing the housing market better than you is all. That’s why I encouraged you to learn it, it’s not that complicated.

  84. 1334
    Eastsider says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1323:

    A little different in King County. Inventory was down 17%. However, if you are not interested in condo’s, KC sfr inventory was down 41%. Inventory level was 0.63 months. That is not a weakening market based on rising rates; that is scarcity. You can’t buy what isn’t for sale.

    Of course the condo market is weakening, FAST. YoY inventory increased by 33% in February. Condo is the canary in housing market. It’s usually the first shoe to drop and the last to recover. Maybe this time is different – the programmers are doing great but everybody else is doing poorly. But I doubt so.

    Inventory in the last decade has been below historic norm by a big margin. It did not prevent prices to retreat in 2018. Key determinant is interest rate and the current trend is unfavorable. When interest rates stop rising, we can have a different conversation. Otherwise, I’m projecting MoM SFH price drop before end of summer.

  85. 1335
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1327 – Nothing is certain. I have certainly seen people who got lucky. But the truly smart and hardworking people outdo lucky ones in the long run. I wish you luck in your endeavor and you could well be successful in this environment. But I don’t think you should be telling people to ‘invest’ when P&L is upset down. Seriously, when you have to recommend forbearance as an investment strategy….

  86. 1336
    Eastsider says:

    WaMu was a major actor in the last housing crash –

    Former WaMu CEO: Feds are taking us toward another housing bubble
    https://mynorthwest.com/2735150/former-wamu-ceo-housing-bubble/

    Did we at least learn a lesson from it such that it won’t happen again?

    “I think the lessons learned from this is that whenever we get in these periods of encouraging asset bubbles like the Fed did leading up to the last financial crisis, they kept interest rates below the rate of inflation for an extended period of time. And guess what? Housing prices rose at an unrealistic level,” he said.

    “I’m hoping we have learned from that because that’s exactly what we’re seeing again today. The Fed has kept interest rates way below the rate of inflation. Naturally, that led to easy affordability for housing, and people are just bidding up prices all over the country. So we all have to think about what’s going to happen to the prices of those houses when interest rates returned to a more normal level.”

  87. 1337
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1328:

    Inventory in the last decade has been below historic norm by a big margin. It did not prevent prices to retreat in 2018. Key determinant is interest rate and the current trend is unfavorable. When interest rates stop rising, we can have a different conversation. Otherwise, I’m projecting MoM SFH price drop before end of summer.

    This is why you are so fun to talk to.

    Norms aside, 2018 inventory actually expanded, a lot.
    2018 avg rates rose above the 2011 rates, but surely no one thinks prices went to meet 2011.
    Tim’s chart shows 2018 prices did recede, but seasonally at least, never so far as 2017.

    These are all fun, but let’s cut to the heart of your argument.
    From 1977 to 1981, interest rates skyrocketed from avg. of 8.85% to 16.67%. What did prices do? They went up too. I’m providing a reference source below, but the quick picture is that during these 5 years the median US home price rose from $36,606 to $61,848. That’s 5 years running where your interest rate as key determinant was continuously wrong.

    https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/

  88. 1338
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1328:

    Of course the condo market is weakening, FAST. YoY inventory increased by 33% in February. Condo is the canary in housing market. It’s usually the first shoe to drop and the last to recover. Maybe this time is different – the programmers are doing great but everybody else is doing poorly. But I doubt so.

    Actually King County condo inventory increased by 56% in February. However, before cracking the bear champagne, we have to take a minute to remember that new condo’s are often delivered in big clumps, near the urban center. Small spaces and limited outdoor use were particularly of limited appeal when combined with a hopefully temporary lack of open amenities that drove that market in the first place. But forget nuance. Let’s just look at the numbers. That mighty increase is a rise from 532 to 830 units in a market which closed 553 units and has 716 pending. Ending inventory was a 1.5 month supply.

  89. 1339
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1330 – Being completely in sync with the guy who drove the country’s largest savings bank into the ground is possibly not as good an endorsement as you think.

  90. 1340
    Eastsider says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1331:

    This is why you are so fun to talk to.

    Norms aside, 2018 inventory actually expanded, a lot.
    2018 avg rates rose above the 2011 rates, but surely no one thinks prices went to meet 2011.
    Tim’s chart shows 2018 prices did recede, but seasonally at least, never so far as 2017.

    These are all fun, but let’s cut to the heart of your argument.
    From 1977 to 1981, interest rates skyrocketed from avg. of 8.85% to 16.67%. What did prices do? They went up too. I’m providing a reference source below, but the quick picture is that during these 5 years the median US home price rose from $36,606 to $61,848. That’s 5 years running where your interest rate as key determinant was continuously wrong.

    https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/

    I don’t want to beat around the bush. Why don’t you google “inflation 1970s” (‘suggested’ by google lol) and then we can talk about “home prices” then. If we are not going to see 20% inflation, what is your point?

  91. 1341
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1333 – Some of Elon Musk’s rockets blew up spectacularly. So are you going to ignore him? Well, I should ignore you and learn from Musk.

  92. 1342
    Eastsider says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1332:

    Let’s just look at the numbers. That mighty increase is a rise from 532 to 830 units in a market which closed 553 units and has 716 pending. Ending inventory was a 1.5 month supply.

    You realize that all those closed / pending sales in February were financed by all-time low mortgage interest rates. Mortgage rates started to move up bigly in March, with no end in sight. Save your champagne for later if March sales are as strong as you claim. I suggest you practice ending every comment with the following statement – “Past performance does not predict future returns.”

  93. 1343
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1329
    I did the opposite of what you, Tim, and Wreckingbull advise and made a lot of money very quickly. My risk was very low the whole time. You folks should re-evaluate your position. You have a poor person mentality that was pushed on you by the system and you believed it. There are a lot easier ways to wealth than working and saving your paycheck. That’s what poor people do, work for money and save. Young people that listen to your advice will have to work a job and be stressed their entire life like you. You chose the wrong path.

  94. 1344
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1335
    You think Elon Musk is a genius for not going the conventional route. He found a better way not accepted by mainstream. You think Elon Musk is brilliant.

    I did not take the conventional route. I found a better way not accepted by main stream. You think I’m an idiot.

    The mainstream keeps people poor and that’s what you listen to and believe. My suggestion is that you re-evaluate.

  95. 1345
    Eastsider says:

    RE investors should bookmark mortgagenewsdaily.com and check in once in a while. I just did. Today’s headline article sounds panicky. Do they realize that we still have a ways to go? M/M price decline will happen before end of summer. You read it here first.

    Mortgage Rates Back Near Long-Term Highs
    http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/971467.aspx

  96. 1346
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1338 – Nope. You are not an idiot but you are a risk taker (aka gambler.) What you are doing is not easily replicated. For example, who wants to live in a foreclosed/auctioned condo that needs a ton of TLC work? Who would borrow from hard money lenders to ‘invest’? Who wants to live in an apartment that is undergoing massive remodel i.e. dust and noise? Who would feel comfortable evicting people from foreclosed properties and then move in?

    I am a risk taker but not your kind.

  97. 1347
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1334:

    I don’t want to beat around the bush. Why don’t you google “inflation 1970s” (‘suggested’ by google lol) and then we can talk about “home prices” then. If we are not going to see 20% inflation, what is your point?

    Interest rates, home prices, and inflation are all related. It is only you that pretends one of them must somehow remain contrary and in stasis. It wasn’t the percentage of the change that was important. It was the direction. It was the 5 years longevity. And there are many shorter periods since. Your mechanics of declining house prices describe a pressure, but were simply wrong as the key determinant, just as your predictions of price decline have proven wrong these last 5 years.

    Look how you ignore more points than you challenge. And then you get beat on the ones you choose. Look at how you never give Voight-Kampff a direct answer, but always slide some into some tangential distraction.

  98. 1348
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1335:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1333 – Some of Elon Musk’s rockets blew up spectacularly. So are you going to ignore him? Well, I should ignore you and learn from Musk.

    Killinger had one rocket, and it blew up spectacularly. But you be you.

  99. 1349
  100. 1350
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1336:

    You realize that all those closed / pending sales in February were financed by all-time low mortgage interest rates. Mortgage rates started to move up bigly in March, with no end in sight. Save your champagne for later if March sales are as strong as you claim. I suggest you practice ending every comment with the following statement – “Past performance does not predict future returns.”

    Those closed and pending condo sales of 553+716 were only 5% higher than the closed and pending condo sales of the previous year, (720+494). I don’t shop condo’s, so I don’t know what kind of sales they experienced in March. But I have never seen the SFR market so competitive and under-inventoried. (I am a potential buyer, not a realtor).

    Also, we often get M/M decreases on seasonal factors. If you think that’s going to reward you for 5 cumulative years on the wrong decision …

    Past performance does not guarantee future results, but in many things it is a good predictor. Yes, I’m looking at you.

  101. 1351

    Long -term Treasury rates Went Below 1.7% That’s Still High Since Months Ago

    Lord Only Knows what debt structure infrastructure plans will suck the debt money dry…I’m sure it won’t go around fairly and equally…do you? Seattle will get very little of it? Time will tell.

    Trust me, I’m a politician spending other folk’s tax debt money.

  102. 1352

    Historically, the long-term CD, Bond and Stock Performances look like a ROLLER COASTER

    2017
    2.33% 3.82% 21.82% 18.22% 25.42%
    2016
    1.82% 2.91% 12.01% 16.35% 2.10%
    2015
    2.04% 0.91% 1.46% -2.92% -0.51%
    2014
    2.31% 6.73% 13.78% 7.80% -5.27%
    2013
    1.89% -1.68% 32.45% 38.35% 22.13%
    2012
    1.47% 4.29% 16.07% 18.57% 18.62%

    Predictions for future is anyone’s GUESS.

  103. 1353

    Rent Goes Down About 20% in Seattle During Killer Flu

    As home prices climb…the perfect storm for bankruptcy and more foreclosures ahead.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/27/why-rent-has-dropped-and-wont-go-back-up-covid.html?recirc=taboolainternal

    20% is not chump change.

  104. 1354
  105. 1355
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1348 – Uh, oh. They’ll still want to get out that money. With less able to go to vacation home buyers, there should be more money available to the rest of us. And more money often means cheaper money. I guess he referenced that by saying vacation home buyers had been propping up the mortgage market.

  106. 1356
    Eastsider says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1341:

    …just as your predictions of price decline have proven wrong these last 5 years.

    5 years? Prove it.

    Still haven’t shown us how your P&L will work in this environment. Sorry, forbearance does not count.

  107. 1357
    Eastsider says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1345 – Rates are volatile and they are still higher than just 3 days ago. Upward trend is clear as day. 2% is on its way. Check back in 3 months. Probably sooner.

  108. 1358
    Eastsider says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1344:

    Also, we often get M/M decreases on seasonal factors.

    Great, show us the “seasonality”. You can’t. Check out the CS 20-city index data which Seattle is part of. As always, fake news.

  109. 1359
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1350:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1341:

    …just as your predictions of price decline have proven wrong these last 5 years.

    5 years? Prove it.

    Still haven’t shown us how your P&L will work in this environment. Sorry, forbearance does not count.

    Prove your own claim. I fished through your boring comments the last time we had this conversation to find you talking down the market in 2016. How about you find your comments in the last 5 years that even hint at healthy prices?

    $200k down and a $260k mortgage. Rent is $2300; PITI is $1597. Adjust payment for a .5% rate increase is to add $75, for $1672 PITI for these terrible times. Tenant is responsible for ALL utilities, but you figure $200/month miscellaneous needs. That leaves free cash flow of $428/month after tenant is paying to carry the house, including reducing principal about $425/mo. This does not include the $30k appreciation that Redfin thinks has occurred since closing.

    I don’t use forbearance, but that doesn’t mean the cash flow accruals aren’t there for those who do.

  110. 1360
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1350

    I appreciate Eastsiders contributions to this site as I like to see differing perspectives, and of course the future is unknown, but past and present is known and for years Eastsider consistently comments about why RE is a bad investment, but when pressed, never offers any alternative. The only conclusion one can draw is that they are sitting on the sidelines exposing their money to little or no risk whatsoever. If they’ve done that for that last 10 years, they’ve missed out on a fortune and they know it. I know I’ve missed out on plenty, and that’s ok.
    Eastsider wants to see P&L.
    Where is your P coming from, Eastsider?
    Eastsider doesn’t want to understand that negative cash flow properties can work in high growth potential areas (please google this Eastsider, this isn’t something Erik invented, smart investors have done this forever)

    Eastsider wants a business plan?

    Verifiable business plan success score on Seattle Bubble-

    Erik: 100

    Eastsider: 0

  111. 1361
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1352:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1344:

    Also, we often get M/M decreases on seasonal factors.

    Great, show us the “seasonality”. You can’t. Check out the CS 20-city index data which Seattle is part of. As always, fake news.

    Have you ever looked at Tim’s price charts? I think there are 20 years of pricelines moving through the year. They very often fall going into the fall and winter months as a lot of comfortable people prefer the convenience of moving when school is out and the weather’s not bad. Sometimes there is some negative market movement; others are really just a change in the mix.

    I showed you 5 consecutive years where rates increased as prices did too.
    Now I will show you 5 consecutive years where rates decreased and prices did too. They are 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012. Surely you remember those years. Your mechanistic approach is nothing less than financially illiterate. You get it wrong whenever it really counts.

    Past performance does not guarantee future results, but in many things it is a good predictor. Yes, I’m still looking at you.

  112. 1362
    don says:

    Zillow research provides an excel spreadsheet with rent indices [zillow observed rent index] by zip. Using the excel “find” tool, you can isolate individual zips and build the “seattle” that you think is the real deal.

    Some results from Jan 2020 to now:

    Ballard 98107: -7%
    Bryant/ Maple leaf : -2%
    Belltown 98121 -18.8%
    Cap Hill 98112: -8%
    CD 98122: -13%

    Aggregate numbers don’t tell much of a story for a city full of neighborhoods with unique characteristics.

  113. 1363
    Johnny says:

    Hi everyone,

    I’ve been a reader for a long time and am finally getting into the market after my current landlord is offering me a direct sale of my rental. Since I’m a first time home buyer, does anyone have a suggestion for some of the things I’ll have to do independently like an escrow company, title search, lien search, inspector, etc?

    Or is there a real estate lawyer someone would suggest if that’s the best way to go?

    We are doing this ourselves so we can avoid a bidding war and save the 6%.

    Thanks a bunch!

    -first time buyer

  114. 1364
    OA says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1355

    Thought I’d share this blog post as it’s relevant to this discussion.

    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/04/the-problem-with-timing-the-housing-market/

  115. 1365
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: OA @ 1357 – Thanks for sharing a very worthwhile article – A good view not just of the complexities in the real time real estate market, but also the diversity in what people internally want from their real estate. I also enjoyed the video.

  116. 1366
    Eastsider says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1355:

    Have you ever looked at Tim’s price charts?

    The gold standard in measuring home prices is CS. I’m sure you know that.

  117. 1367
    Eastsider says:

    By Voight-kampff @ 1354:

    …for years Eastsider consistently comments about why RE is a bad investment, but when pressed, never offers any alternative.

    For years? Maybe last 3-4 years? You expect me to offer you an alternative investment, really? Please read what you write before posting or use edit afterwards. That said, I wish you the best.

  118. 1368
    Eastsider says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1353:

    $200k down and a $260k mortgage. Rent is $2300

    According to Redfin, with your $460k, you can afford a 1Br or 2Br condo. The latest rent stat according to Zumper – 1BR under $1500, 2BR under $2000. You need to update your numbers.

  119. 1369
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1359 – First, look at Don’s post 1356 to get a sense of how different the neighborhoods are. Recognize that the limitations of Tim’s chart is to blend and blanderize all of those neighborhoods. Then, CSI takes that a big step further by trying to inflation adjust those numbers. This is the gold standard for observing small, intra-year changes in nonuniform assets? Time to wake up, Karen.

  120. 1370
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1361 – 3 bed, 2 bath house with attached garage, in a well kept neighborhood outside Seattle proper. Financials presented are correct. I know this because I’m doing it in real life while you are clearly buried in misunderstood statistics.

  121. 1371
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1360
    Fair enough. Good luck to you and your money under the mattress. Relax, I’m kidding!
    Full disclosure, I panic sold a couple of stocks at the beginning of the pandemic, so I’m a mediocre investor at best. I’m even worse at punctuation, but I’m a really proficient guitar player, so there’s that.

  122. 1372
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1363 – Good for you! I’m sure many homebuyers would love to buy a “3 bed, 2 bath house with attached garage, in a well kept neighborhood” for $460k. Since you are so helpful, perhaps you can share a few Redfin listings for these homebuyers. They will be so thankful LOL.

  123. 1373
    Erik says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1363
    Are you a used house salesman?

  124. 1374
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1364:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1363 – Good for you! I’m sure many homebuyers would love to buy a “3 bed, 2 bath house with attached garage, in a well kept neighborhood” for $460k. Since you are so helpful, perhaps you can share a few Redfin listings for these homebuyers. They will be so thankful LOL.

    Eastsider, you said that it was impossible to get a rental that would be profitable and cash flow in these terrible times. I gave you a real life example of a property I purchased less than 12 months ago that shows you to be dead wrong. So you contest the reality with faulty assumptions. I correct you with more facts, and now I can’t tell if you are incapable of not moving the goal posts, or if you assume the place is not toney enough for your tenants. Then I remember you have no tenants.

    You were just wrong. Again.

    Past performance does not guarantee future results, but in many things it is a good predictor.

  125. 1375
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Erik @ 1365:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1363
    Are you a used house salesman?

    Nope.

  126. 1376
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1366 – Some people do get good deals in RE sometimes (e.g. estate, bank and distressed sales). Maybe you are among them. You should share your insight, like Erik on auctions, so others can assess if it is real or fiction. Where are the Redfin listings today that demonstrate your claim? Stop telling people you can make money if you can’t show them how. (Sure, I make tons of money in stocks, more than your RE investments. How about that?)

  127. 1377
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1368

    Finding the right deals is work, time consuming work. I don’t need you to believe me. I don’t need you to compete with me.

    I don’t know what you make in stocks, and you don’t know what I make in real estate, or how they compare. But looking at how quickly and frequently you jump to unfounded conclusions, I don’t think you make very much. Based on the time you spend sweating the small stuff, I don’t think you make very much. Based on your inability to absorb new information, I don’t think you make very much. Based on the energy you put into an arena where you have spent years afraid to take action, I don’t think you make very much.

  128. 1378
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1369 – You make a lot of assumptions about someone you know nothing about. That tells a lot.

    You just agreed that what you did is not easily replicable. Most people would lose money ‘investing’ in RE today. So stop pushing people to lose their savings.

  129. 1379

    Great Opinions All

    The jobs report came out positive this month….now lets do a jobs report after taxes go up to 28% from 21% for companies….this won’t occur until 2022? Don’t mix the tax tables up. It will change radically over-night; then all bets are off IMO when that happens. The fog. So will inflation planning IMO.

    We haven’t seen the tax bill changes and their effect on investors yet.

    Don’t count your chickens before ya can count the eggs.

  130. 1380
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1370:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1369 – You make a lot of assumptions about someone you know nothing about. That tells a lot.

    Do I? Over the last couple days, I have spelled out quite a number of specific wrong assumptions you’ve made. My statements that I think you don’t make very much are each predicated by a behavior that you have demonstrated in front of us all for years. The implication involved is a general one that people who are undisciplined and stupid or over worried about small to moderate costs are unlikely to be very successful financially. Those are not assumptions about the person.

    You just agreed that what you did is not easily replicable. Most people would lose money ‘investing’ in RE today. So stop pushing people to lose their savings.

    No. The lesson is that the required elements of your OCD can be successfully satisfied through moderating the amount of your leverage. Thank goodness I didn’t mention my free and clear property; you’d be going out of your mind. Obviously finding and assessing unique assets takes more time and work than mass marketed ones. Did you not pick up on that 10 years ago?

  131. 1381
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1372 – I’m not interested in engaging in back and forth useless argument with you. If your claim on the $460k “3 bed, 2 bath house with attached garage, in a well kept neighborhood” is doable, people including Erik (“Are you a used house salesman?” lol) are interested to replicate your ‘success’. At least Erik provided us with his ‘roadmap’ to ‘accumulating’ wealth if people want to take the plunge. (I wouldn’t.)

  132. 1382
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1370:

    You just agreed that what you did is not easily replicable. Most people would lose money ‘investing’ in RE today. So stop pushing people to lose their savings.

    On second thought, I apologize to the Seattle Bubble community. I do the undoable. It would be too hard for you, and you would just lose money. Stop looking today. And if you own a house, put it on the market. But do it now, while I am still looking. Prices are going to go down. I know. A guy who makes a lot of money in the stock market told me so.

  133. 1383
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1373 – I suppose no argument is so useless as one where you keep getting called out wrong, and have no answer for that, except to demand more information you would not understand or appreciate.

  134. 1384
    Erik says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1369
    One of those guys that tries to hoard secrets.

    Do you use DealMachine? That’s probably the best way to find deals on the MLS right now. Don’t be a dick, you should help people. If you hoard secrets you will end up with less, that’s just how it works.

  135. 1385
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1373
    I’ll tell you everything I know if you want. I can tell you every step of how to become wealthy in real estate with excruciating detail. You and both know you’ll never do it. You are too set in your ways. You made the wrong choice investing and you’ll push it as if you made the right choice until you die.

    The biggest step to change is admitting your wrong and you’ll never do that. You’ll retire with over a million, but it took wayyy too long and a million isn’t that much anymore. Taking the dumb money route works if you are okay working your entire life and living off what you saved in diversified index funds when you are old. In real estate, you live off the cash flow and have millions of dollars in equity that grows. You basically get richer until you die.

  136. 1386
    don says:

    Risk tolerance and basic temperament explain most of this disagreement.
    Neither view is entirely right or wrong, and each game style will be more effective in certain historical periods than the other. In rotted and failing markets, being conservative is king, in a boom, putting it all on red looks like genius.
    A. Greenspan once said [paraphrased] “Amateurs just want to be right, professionals just want to make money”

  137. 1387
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Erik @ 1376 – I don’t use dealmaker. I have a realtor who I’ve worked with a long time, and keeps an eye out. Friends and family let me know about things they see. I have had neighbors to rentals approach me because I’m known for buying houses. But mostly, I check my 3 primary neighborhoods daily. I don’t buy ugly houses or any place I wouldn’t live, but I have a cap because this is a rental. I have a house profile that I’m not sharing, but I’m willing to trade one or two of its requirements for something special when I see that. These days I am also willing to see if something missing could be added with a reasonable project – but I still want good condition as is. I like the shopping. I don’t have to buy this month, or next month…

    This is different than how I started. I was more land focused. I would look for commercial zoning or extra lots. These days, commercial zoning is not necessarily good. Fixers were more in line with my energy levels than now. I did some pure land deals – small capital, easy to manage, but you have to look at it like feeding your 401k because there is $0 income and any financing is low LTV seller financing. I took it very slow. Getting out from being undercapitalized is the most impactful thing.

  138. 1388
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1377 – I explained why few would want to invest like you in comment@1340. It takes some kind of personality and drive to do it your way. That said, you have no idea who I am and what I do.

  139. 1389
    Eastsider says:

    RE: don @ 1378 – That is only part of it. Private deals are not the same as public transactions. Warren Buffett has many sweetheart deals that help him beat the market. If what’s his name has access to lucrative one-off deals, that says nothing about RE being good investment in current environment.

  140. 1390
    Eastsider says:

    You can always make money in RE if you can find those special deals. Some people make a good business chasing estate sales where beneficiaries are ignorant of market pricing (or just want cash now). Some people buy from banks directly. But all these great deals are off market and take work. Otherwise, I don’t see how you can profit in today’s market without taking on significant risks.

  141. 1391
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1381 – I’m not sitting in some secret deal pit.
    By far, most of what I’ve bought was already on the MLS. That includes the property I outlined. Realtors, friends, and family are primarily an information conduit for areas I like, but I’m not following that intensely. Neighbors don’t bring you deals so that you can cheat them. There are always appraisals.

    Also, bringing this all forward sounds like I have a lot of activity, whereas this occurs over years. I’m really looking for only one house this year. That’s all.

  142. 1392
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1380
    I know who you are and what you do. You are a 50 year old code monkey that lives in Redmond.

    Watch this video please:
    https://youtu.be/zshlrp-6n1o

    If you are already making great money as a Redmond code monkey, hire the whole thing out. Tap into that paid off house equity and control more real estate. Like Kevin says, real estate typically gets bailed out in recessions, but don’t count on it.

    The software people on this site, need to think more about getting rich and less about writing code.

  143. 1393
    Erik says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1383
    That’s awesome. I don’t have that kind of network, but I wish I did. I just hope to get lucky at the auction.

  144. 1394
    ruxpert says:

    MeetKevin
    Real Estate Investing: $10,000 to $100k FAST & Blunt.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zshlrp-6n1o

    waterfront dining – oooh la la la
    https://youtu.be/yYLJyVej_M0

  145. 1395
  146. 1396
    Eastsider says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1383:

    I’m not sitting in some secret deal pit.

    Erik disagrees – “That’s awesome. I don’t have that kind of network, but I wish I did.” LOL

  147. 1397
    Matt P says:

    Ruxpert, take that conspiracy theory garbage about vaccines elsewhere. This is a real estate blog.

    If you’re a software engineer, why would you want to take on even more work in real estate? Software engineering is already a very hard job with long hours. Even turning over management of your properties to someone else is not 100% hands off and causes stress. Buying VOO or VTI and letting it ride is the closest thing we have to guaranteed safe money. If a software engineer of 50 had been doing that their whole careers, they would be rich.

    I think we can sum up arguments as it’s possible to make money in real estate, but it takes a lot of work and the risk of losing money can be quite high if the market were to crash, but it’s impossible to predict that. You can get a lot more margin with real estate than you can with the stock market and also can walk away relatively unscathed if you don’t put down a lot of your own money and simply walk away if the market goes wrong.

    Also, using forbearance when you don’t need it is fraud. The chances of them coming after you is basically nil, but the wording is pretty clear – you must have a financial hardship due to covid (buying a 2nd property precludes that) and you must make payments on the property in forbearance if you can (buying a 2nd property again proves you should be making those payments and are choosing willfully not to).

  148. 1398

    RE: Erik @ 1385
    Auction Strategy

    Most bid after they think the bidding money dried up and bids come down…..my daughter bid on the first item in the auction and got a low price that way…never follow the lemmings Erik.

  149. 1399
    Eastsider says:

    By don @ 1378:

    In rotted and failing markets, being conservative is king, in a boom, putting it all on red looks like genius.

    Not always true. Archegos is Exhibit A. Its leverage was 15:100, similar to RE, when it blew up. And it happened in a bull market. The 2007 housing downturn wiped out down payments (and more) of recent purchases. No one knows if it will happen again. But most people’s wealth/savings are tied up in their homes. It is not prudent, especially if you are a RE investor, to buy in a red hot market and hope prices will continue to rise. You are basically doing a Archegos. Archegos got wiped out and is now history.

  150. 1400
    OA says:

    By Matt P @ 1389:

    If you’re a software engineer, why would you want to take on even more work in real estate? Software engineering is already a very hard job with long hours. Even turning over management of your properties to someone else is not 100% hands off and causes stress. Buying VOO or VTI and letting it ride is the closest thing we have to guaranteed safe money. If a software engineer of 50 had been doing that their whole careers, they would be rich.

    I think we can sum up arguments as it’s possible to make money in real estate, but it takes a lot of work and the risk of losing money can be quite high if the market were to crash, but it’s impossible to predict that. You can get a lot more margin with real estate than you can with the stock market and also can walk away relatively unscathed if you don’t put down a lot of your own money and simply walk away if the market goes wrong.

    I agree, combine any high salary position with a high savings rate and this person can have a pretty comfortable next egg even before he/she reaches 40 by consistently buying into something like VOO or VTI, etc. And I’m talking about doing it in addition to 401ks/IRAs/HSAs. More emphasis needs to be put on your ability to save as that’s what you can actually control, versus which fund or stock to buy. Biggest key is here consistently saving and investing, basically putting it on cruise control as much as possible and letting compound interest do its work.

    Also agree that there’s definitely plenty of money to be made in real estate as well, but takes more hands on work. My first few big payouts were in real estate.

  151. 1401
    S-Crow says:

    RE: OA @ 1392

    And, don’t forget our most important thing in doing real estate: time. And most just don’t have too much of it outside of work and life!

  152. 1402
    Paulie says:

    By Erik @ 1384:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1380
    I know who you are and what you do. You are a 50 year old code monkey that lives in Redmond.

    Watch this video please:
    https://youtu.be/zshlrp-6n1o

    If you are already making great money as a Redmond code monkey, hire the whole thing out. Tap into that paid off house equity and control more real estate. Like Kevin says, real estate typically gets bailed out in recessions, but don’t count on it.

    The software people on this site, need to think more about getting rich and less about writing code.

    RE: Erik @ 1384

    The world’s millionaires and billionaires are increasingly software people, and usually the most successful ones are the ones who think obsessively about their users, their business, and yes their code.

    Some people like creating products that uplift society and add lasting value to the human species. Those people will be taken care of and achieve riches you can’t fathom.

    Some people like investing in assets to extract resources to procure material advantage for its own sake, nothing more.

    You’ve made it pretty clear throughout your posts which type of person you are. Not only are you producing nothing particularly lasting or valuable for the world, but your small fry real estate portfolio is nothing but chitlins compared to the true wealth the comes from being an excellent, user-obsessed creator of software products. Stay in your lane, enjoy your modest hard-earned success, and stop giving people terrible advice.

    On a personal note, as someone who works as an engineering manager currently making >$900K/year, and who also was formerly a CPA (actually license is still active) and has real estate, and hit millionaire at 32, my advice to people would be (1) never commit fraud, it doesn’t pay, even if you can get away with it you can apply your energy to better (and more profitable causes), (2) owning real estate is a joy, and (3) owning real estate is also a job, that will siphon time from your job, so if you love your real job, put all your focus on that first.

  153. 1403
    don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1391

    Yes, there are always exceptions.

    LTCM was another.

    Risk tolerance still counts for a large part of real estate success, however.
    I can show you properties in Fremont / Ballard that I rejected on completing a careful, rational proforma. Today they are worth 10 times that pittance on holding alone, not to mention development value added. Lucky for me I jumped on few enough for the tide to lift me.
    This of course is from an investment perspective, not shelter.

  154. 1404
    Eastsider says:

    RE: don @ 1394 – No disagreement here. The key is leverage. If people leverage to the hilt, they are not in control of their destiny. RE investment is highly leveraged.

  155. 1405
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1395:

    RE: don @ 1394 – No disagreement here. The key is leverage. If people leverage to the hilt, they are not in control of their destiny. RE investment is highly leveraged.

    Golly, I thought that if we had accomplished 2 things yesterday, they were that I demonstrated RE investment need not be highly leveraged, and you demonstrated that an unmargined equity stock might be extremely leveraged. Is this Groundhog day?

  156. 1406
    Erik says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1389
    When I started, I did most the myself. I was also working stress analysis on the 787 wing. I was also going to grad school to earn a Masters degree in Mechanical Engineering from UW. You are making excuses. If you keep making excuses and being lazy you will be a poor code monkey forever. Suck it up and get to work.

    You gotta ignore everything in life for a while to build your foundation. I guess real estate is for strong people with a strong work ethic, which fits me. Lazy software weenie babies should stay poor.

  157. 1407
    Erik says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1396
    Every non investor on here believes every real investor is highly leveraged. They use it as an excuse to not do anything. I’ve tried to make the point for years that real estate is very low risk when done right and the code monkeys won’t believe it because they don’t want to believe it.

    The truth is real estate investing is extremely safe. After 5 years, sell something and put a few hundred thousand in your bank account if your scared. Eastsider is someone that doesn’t understand investing.

  158. 1408
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1395
    No it’s not for the thousandth time. You only believe that so you can validate the poor investment choices you’ve made in life.

  159. 1409
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1395
    The only reason you keep saying that is to validate the poor investment choices you’ve made in life. Real estate is extremely safe and highly profitable when done right. The longer you do it, the safer it gets. After 5 years, it’s way safer than the stock market.

  160. 1410
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 1392
    Meow! What a bunch of babies.

    Code monkeys stroking one another to validate themselves, great…

  161. 1411
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 1392
    Meow! What a bunch of babies.

    Code monkeys stroking one another to validate themselves, great…

  162. 1412
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1343

    Debt Consequences Catastrophic, No Runaway Growth Coming Says Brent Johnson
    Apr 2, 2021
    https://youtu.be/KvdDn13T5_I

    ———-
    Mark Pachol
    I was a conspiracy theorist not anymore I am a conspiracy Factist now, feels good !

    jmathews2u
    Only uninformed people call it “conspiracy theories!!” I like to use the term “critical thinker” in place of conspiracy theorists!!
    Remember, Noah was a conspiracy theorist also!!! Then it started to rain……
    ————-

    “final thoughts, Brent?”:
    “I think the big battle, the big debate in my world & the people I talk to is:
    Inflation VS Deflation
    and with all the debts in the World, I believe that is Deflationary.

    Now, the Govt.s are doing everything they possibly can to counteract that
    and we’ve seen this several times of the last 10, 12, 20, even 30 years
    where you get these Govt. programs that comes in and provide short terms and you do get these short term inflationary impulses
    but then they always rollover and it’s because the debt is so big
    and so I’m not going to sit here and say I don’t see the inflationary pressures …
    the question is where or not it’s sustainable …
    and you know one of the big ways to get sustainable inflation is the banks have to lend new money into existence
    and they’re just not doing that right now, and unless the banks start lending that money into existence, I don’t think the inflationary pressures that we’re seeing are sustainable.
    https://youtu.be/KvdDn13T5_I?t=1046

    Inflation Bubble VS Deflation Trouble?

  163. 1413
    OA says:

    By S-Crow @ 1393:

    RE: OA @ 1392

    And, don’t forget our most important thing in doing real estate: time. And most just don’t have too much of it outside of work and life!

    Yupp. I have no issue whatsoever with real estate investing, whether it’s renting, flipping, etc. because I know for a fact there’s money to be made there if you’re patient and have a strategy. I was more involved in it 5 years ago. As I moved up the corporate ladder and started a family, it’s less appealing than it used to be. However I do see myself buying rental property over time.

  164. 1414
    OA says:

    By Erik @ 1401:

    RE: OA @ 1392
    Meow! What a bunch of babies.

    Code monkeys stroking one another to validate themselves, great…

    Erik I’ve been to a few of those auctions in the past that you go to. If I ever come to another one and see you there, I’ll make sure to introduce myself. And I guarantee that you’ll brush your online comments off as sarcasm because there’s no way in hell you’re going to be man enough to call me anything like code monkey to my face.

    So type away keyboard warrior. You have no class, no ethics, and you’re dumber than a rock for putting up your first and last name (before Kary told you to change it) on here with the way you talk and literally confess to doing forbearance fraud and recommending it. Straight up idiot! Lol.

    I broke my own rule by replying to your nonsense. Last time!

  165. 1415
    MIKAL says:

    RE: OA @ 1404 – I’ll call you code monkey and horses ass to if I show up to one of those. Maybe you’ll beat the hell out of me. …. Maybe you won’t. Been a bully long? Isn’t that hard to find me to.

  166. 1416
    MIKAL says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1402 – This has been rolled over since World War II. The closest we have come to a Great Depression was in Bush’s last year and the Fed reinflated it in what… 3 years? The rich are now protected. The anyone with skin in the game is protected. Maybe I’m wrong. I was wrong during the last bubble.

  167. 1417
    Marcos Ambrellos says:

    This site has become a chat room of four people. LOL.

  168. 1418
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 1404
    Happy Easter code monkey!!!

  169. 1419

    RE: Erik @ 1407
    Grab the Money Before Its All Sucked Dry

    Debt can sustain money supply until inflation stops it.

    My housing development is empty….Easter drove them out of their homes. My sister is in California at her vacation home. Enjoy your chocolate rabbits!!

  170. 1420

    The Hand Writings On the Wall

    King County sent me a poll on my HOA a few days ago. It asked why modular homes are to finance.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/home-market-overheating-low-inventory-111700219.html

    “…Tim Krohn, The Free Press, Mankato, Minn.
    Sun, April 4, 2021, 4:17 AM

    Apr. 4—A sizzling housing market with far more interested buyers than sellers is spurring a bidding war on many homes.

    “Inventory is lower and the demand is high. We’re finding multiple offers on many properties, and they’re going well above asking price, sometimes $10,000, $15,000, $20,000 above,” said Jen True of True Real Estate.

    Some fear that the higher prices will lead to problems.

    “I can’t predict the future, but the writing’s on the wall. It’s getting scary,” said appraiser Jason Carlsten of JC Valuation Services Inc.

    Carlsten said the higher bids are leading to homes that do not appraise high enough to allow the lenders to approve the loans.

    “You’re getting these properties listed and agents come up with the most likely sales price for that property. They’ve done their research. Then there’s 15 people who bid it up,” Carlsten said.

    Lenders require that a home appraises for a certain percentage of the loan amount. Most lenders won’t loan more than between 80% to 97% of the home’s fair market value…”

    There has been only one listed in my HOA of 140 the last year. The units have too much debt risks.

  171. 1421
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1408
    Happy Easter SWE! My sister and her husband and kids are staying with us. I took 2 weeks off work and have been having fun here in sunny Louisiana.

  172. 1422
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 1404
    You’re mad at me because I caught you in a lie and called you out on seabub. You will only cyber bully me like Wreckingbull, another weak lying code monkey. Don’t lie and you won’t get caught code monkey.

  173. 1423
    ruxpert says:

    RE: MIKAL @ 1406
    Hi MIKAL,

    The question/issue of post 1402 is: Inflation VS Deflation
    What is your position regarding That?

  174. 1424
    ruxpert says:

    RE: MIKAL @ 1406

    MIKAL,
    btw,
    What you wrote made me think about a podcast I recently listened to:
    https://www.podomatic.com/podcasts/tkelly6785757/episodes/2021-03-31T07_46_02-07_00
    https://youtu.be/Ii8GRohBP7E

  175. 1425
    Eastsider says:

    Automakers have fleet sales to rental car companies. Now homebuilders are getting into the act with bulk sales to home rental firms and pension funds. According to the article, it now accounts for 1/5 of home sales in many markets.

    If You Sell a House These Days, the Buyer Might Be a Pension Fund
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-you-sell-a-house-these-days-the-buyer-might-be-a-pension-fund-11617544801

    A bidding war broke out this winter at a new subdivision north of Houston. But the prize this time was the entire subdivision, not just a single suburban house, illustrating the rise of big investors as a potent new force in the U.S. housing market.

    D.R. Horton Inc. built 124 houses in Conroe, Texas, rented them out and then put the whole community, Amber Pines at Fosters Ridge, on the block. A Who’s Who of investors and home-rental firms flocked to the December sale. The winning $32 million bid came from an online property-investing platform, Fundrise LLC, which manages more than $1 billion on behalf of about 150,000 individuals.

    The country’s most prolific home builder booked roughly twice what it typically makes selling houses to the middle class—an encouraging debut in the business of selling entire neighborhoods to investors.

  176. 1426
    ruxpert says:

    Inflation / Deflation –
    World Debt Highest Since WW2
    Big spurt of growth soon, if Vaccine rollout goes well …
    Talks about renters, home buying, etc.

    Endgame For Global Currency Reset & Financial System | Gold, Silver & Market Crash –
    Michael Pento Apr 4, 2021
    https://youtu.be/dxqtoNSN1_A

  177. 1427
    S-Crow says:

    RE: OA @ 1403 – You mentioned the term “over time.” This is probably the most important theme in real estate. And the most overlooked or under appreciated. It is easy to see the renovations and flips on TV and think it happens in TV time. Everybody seemingly wants it now. The seasoned and most successful investors I have worked with in real estate have been in the game decades and hibernate (code for waiting for ideal times to buy) when the time calls for it. And they did it without taking on copious amounts of debt. The least successful had two things in common: 1) they bought into the go- go look at me “culture” of real estate in which several were “in” the biz (ie loan officers and agents) and 2) they were levered to the moon with little or no back up plan.

    The idea of “everybody wants it now” is what suprised me probably the most being in the Escrow business. I had no idea the debt loads people carried until I saw it when reviewing sales and refi files over many years. It really shocked me. And made for almost daily conversations between my spouse and I. So many people had stuff and owned nothing. As the years rolled on it became less and less suprising.

  178. 1428
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 1403
    You threaten to beat me up when I’m trying to buy auction properties. Then you want me to believe you are climbing the corporate ladder?

    Maybe it’s different in software, but managers “climbing the ladder” at my work have very good social skills and thick skin. You aren’t displaying those characteristics on this website.

    When I was a first level manager, I spent all my time working or doing something work related. Then climbers gotta spend all their free time networking plus doing good in their current position. They volunteer for things and go to all the networking events. Climbing is very time intensive.

    Why climb when it’s so much easier to make more money so much faster in real estate? Then in the end you have a steady stream of cash and a high net worth. I guess if you want to be a stressed out executive that doesn’t spend time with his family, then go the corporate route. If you just want the cash, get a real estate portfolio and keep buying until you can own 5 houses without a mortgage. When your rental income matches your earned income, you can retire or keep working the same job.

  179. 1429
    OA says:

    By Erik @ 1411:

    RE: OA @ 1404
    You’re mad at me because I caught you in a lie and called you out on seabub. You will only cyber bully me like Wreckingbull, another weak lying code monkey. Don’t lie and you won’t get caught code monkey.

    My biggest recurring mistake here is replying to your nonsense, you’re straight up delusional.

    I stand behind everything I’ve said, from investment advice that I’ve given or to me saying that I already have a pretty decent nest egg in my early 30s. And if you don’t like or agree with any one it, that’s fine! Live your life!

    And the only exposing you’ve done is when you continuously expose yourself for committing forbearance fraud, and then try to justify it when people call you out on it. It’s pathetic…people on here know your full name…

  180. 1430
    OA says:

    By S-Crow @ 1416:

    RE: OA @ 1403 – You mentioned the term “over time.” This is probably the most important theme in real estate. And the most overlooked or under appreciated. It is easy to see the renovations and flips on TV and think it happens in TV time. Everybody seemingly wants it now. The seasoned and most successful investors I have worked with in real estate have been in the game decades and hibernate (code for waiting for ideal times to buy) when the time calls for it. And they did it without taking on copious amounts of debt. The least successful had two things in common: 1) they bought into the go- go look at me “culture” of real estate in which several were “in” the biz (ie loan officers and agents) and 2) they were levered to the moon with little or no back up plan.

    The idea of “everybody wants it now” is what suprised me probably the most being in the Escrow business. I had no idea the debt loads people carried until I saw it when reviewing sales and refi files over many years. It really shocked me. And made for almost daily conversations between my spouse and I. So many people had stuff and owned nothing. As the years rolled on it became less and less suprising.

    Yeah I 100% agree. Patience and time are two great things to have when it comes to investing. Keeping up with the Joneses makes people do foolish things. Financial literacy is something that isn’t taught enough unfortunately.

  181. 1431
    OA says:

    By Erik @ 1417:

    RE: OA @ 1403
    You threaten to beat me up when I’m trying to buy auction properties. Then you want me to believe you are climbing the corporate ladder?

    Maybe it’s different in software, but managers “climbing the ladder” at my work have very good social skills and thick skin. You aren’t displaying those characteristics on this website.

    When I was a first level manager, I spent all my time working or doing something work related. Then climbers gotta spend all their free time networking plus doing good in their current position. They volunteer for things and go to all the networking events. Climbing is very time intensive.

    Why climb when it’s so much easier to make more money so much faster in real estate? Then in the end you have a steady stream of cash and a high net worth. I guess if you want to be a stressed out executive that doesn’t spend time with his family, then go the corporate route. If you just want the cash, get a real estate portfolio and keep buying until you can own 5 houses without a mortgage. When your rental income matches your earned income, you can retire or keep working the same job.

    Dude I ain’t trying to fight you, I don’t care about you. I’m sure you’re a decent guy to talk to in person but then hide behind your keyboard like a coward calling people names because it’s convenient. Just leave me alone. This is going nowhere.

  182. 1432
    Matt P says:

    Erik, you’re bring quite an ass by calling people code monkeys. You have no idea what I do for a living.

  183. 1433
    Erik says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1421
    Pardon me Matt P, what do you do for a living then? Enlighten me. Sorry, I thought you were just another dirty code monkey.

    My whole point is that people get wrapped up working for money and miss the big prize. Investing in real estate is more important than working for money in the long term. If someone put their efforts in real estate, in 10 years the real estate money would far greater than the earned income.

  184. 1434
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 1418
    I haven’t committed fraud. I qualify for the stimulus. I don’t lie and cheat, that’s what weak people like you do. I’ve told you that several times and you keep saying the same thing.

    Look up the cares act and read it. You don’t understand real estate investing because you won’t do the work to educate yourself.

  185. 1435

    RE: Erik @ 1423
    Erik, Guys Like Me are doomed now

    I liked Looneytoons as a kid, enjoyed The Muppets and read Dr Sues…

    The WOKE generation labels me Racist? They think changing our style will improve things….how about do nothing at all. The WOKE generation needs to go out and make money….before its all suddenly sucked dry. Their priorities are all wrong IMO. Get back to work and off Socialistic welfare. Time is running out IMO.

  186. 1436

    Make the World Obey Higher Tax Rates for Companies

    https://www.axios.com/janet-yellen-global-minimum-tax-rate-51c7395b-e46a-4a5c-b18b-bdcf5d8bd352.html

    That will fix it. But the world will cheat anyway….so its hopeless.

  187. 1437
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1435
    They are missing the message. If these overpaid code monkeys just read what I’m saying and invested their money, they’d be doing what they want in life after about 10 years. They would no longer have to sit at a desk and write code to make their employer more wealthy. They are probably lashing out towards me because they are depressed from their job, but the money is too good to leave. I’m showing them a better way. They should be thanking me.

    When I met you for coffee, you told me that since you retired you’ve gained perspective. I’m trying to help these code monkeys gain perspective and they just aren’t having it.

    That’s what you get for trying to help people I guess, getting threatened to be turned in for something I’m not even guilty of.

  188. 1438
    ruxpert says:

    Robert Kiyosaki’s current Real Estate strategy ?
    https://youtu.be/Xf61t9_alMQ?t=1134

  189. 1439
    Erik says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1432
    Here is a real question Matt:

    Why are the people on here so offended by the term “code monkey,” yet all claim to not be a code monkey.

    Here’s my theory… The non code monkeys on here have direct report code monkeys. They want to keep the code monkeys doing the boring work that makes them depressed, so they have to defend them since this site can be accessed by those direct reports.

    Either that or the people on here are lying and really are code monkeys that have poor social skills and a bad sense of humor. They are so sensitive and sad, they can’t even take a joke. If that’s true, they must secretly hate their jobs too.

    If someone called me a slimy landlord or a nasa space freak, I’d actually take some pride in it. I don’t understand why code monkeys are so defensive about their profession.

    If I wrote computer code for a living and liked it, I’d laugh if someone called me a code monkey. I’d say “ooh ohh ahh ahh” and pretend to write code. The whole thing is strange and doesn’t make sense to me so I’m trying to figure it out. If you are embarrassed about being a code monkey for whatever reason, do something else with your life.

    Maybe you could help me understand code monkey culture?

  190. 1440
    Erik says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1438
    Robert Kiosaki is a genius. The only people that don’t like him are people that do not accept reality.

    I’m sure he’s right about buying in red states, but I like Seattle real estate and it’s been good to me. I may come to regret that as the US turns more and more communist.

  191. 1441
    ruxpert says:

    CFPB proposes foreclosure ban until 2022

    Amending Regulation X to give servicers and homeowners more time to work through options
    April 5, 2021, By Alex Roha
    https://www.housingwire.com/articles/cfpb-proposes-foreclosure-ban-until-2022/

  192. 1442
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Erik @ 1440

    I still think the core issue is Corruption vs Accountability.
    And divisive distraction continues that cancer hurting the most.

    perhaps not the best example, albeit I’m busy / working-on-the-fly here with this:

    For instance look at this board concentrating / focusing on more personal divisive claims of fraud, while ignoring mega more pressing issues of fraud that effect vastly more of us. ?
    It is this cancerous corruption / cancel culture control of information / hypocrisy / entropy that is damaging US most!

    I gotta get back to the grind, … here’s a couple of infobytes to chew on in the meantime:
    —————–/
    Bill Black: Our System is So Flawed That Fraud is Mathematically Guaranteed
    How did we allow things to get this bad?
    by Adam Taggart
    May 25, 2013,
    https://www.peakprosperity.com/bill-black-our-system-is-so-flawed-that-fraud-is-mathematically-guaranteed-3/

    “We’re So Stupid Following Our Politicians” – Charles Barkley Unleashes One Minute Of Truth

    On America
    Apr 05, 2021
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/were-so-stupid-following-our-politicians-charles-barkley-unleashes-one-minute-truth

    Charles Barkley slams politicians, says ‘system’ is set up to ‘divide and conquer’
    Charles Barkley Says Politicians ‘Divide’ Black, White and Rich, Poor America
    ####/
    in short, if WE don’t deal with the core of the cancer/corruption/cancer problem,
    if we continue to be distracted by the fallout / symptoms the corruption/cancer is causing,
    then WE will continue to suffer the spreading of the corruption’s cancer problem. ;-)

  193. 1443
    Erik says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1442
    Yes our government is extremely corrupt right now. Fewer and fewer sheep seem to follow the cdc and those corrupt organizations. I don’t know how to control that, so I just try to control the amount of money that flows into my pockets.

    Printing money could go on a long time before a crash. This bubble could get stretched out 20 more years as real estate gets extremely expensive. My goal is to create enough cash flow to be able to leave the country or retire early and ignore it all. I just need 5 paid off units.

  194. 1444
    SeaH says:

    Is there an update on Seattle real estate for April , at for March ? Has ardell been busy, anyone reached to her ? What does the next few months look like ?

  195. 1445
    Erik says:

    RE: SeaH @ 1444
    Google “Redfin Data center.” I think Tim created it. You can go in and deselect cities and add cities. It’s a pain to deselect one by one. There should be a deselect all button. That was a comment to Tim. He did a great job and there is always room for improvement.

    You can change tabs an look at inventory, DOM, prices, etc. Great data. You no longer need Tim to post because all he posts is on Redfin Data center.

  196. 1446
    Erik says:

    RE: SeaH @ 1444
    Also, I just remembered, you gotta do it on a laptop. It doesn’t work on my phone and that’s the biggest downside.

  197. 1447

    RE: SeaH @ 1444

    I’ve been very busy. Leaving tomorrow for a week off. Tuesday to Tuesday. One real estate cycle that goes from Thursday to Sunday generally. I’ll be working from a pool in Palm Springs and I have a partner here who will be doing some leg work. Will be staging and listing a place when I get back. Townhome in Kirkland. Also a couple of closings the first few days after I return.

    What did you want to know?

  198. 1448
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Erik @ 1443

    Wow, the corruption cancer killing USA just upped ITs artillery !
    & knows it can bribe to include US complicit too so to reduce opposition/Accountability for its crimes.
    Let’s Continue To Bailout Corruption! Whatever The Expense!

    MeetKevin
    Biden Admin JUST Announced Plan of MASSIVE Housing Bailout!!
    Apr 5, 2021
    https://youtu.be/iepZC3HdS8E

    James C
    A moment of silence for us who haven’t purchased a home yet

    ;-)

  199. 1449
    Erik says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1448
    I saw that last night. The fed is bailing out people with mortgages. This happens every recession. There will not be a wave of foreclosures. I kind of expected this, but this is on the more generous side in my opinion.

  200. 1450
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1448

    Apr.4
    The Coming Crash from Hyperinflation & Suing the Fed
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pnK7W4b0Ro

    Michael Calabrese
    $14.99
    Kevin, I am donating as a working person with a fixed income to sue the Fed. How much of the money you made dumping for the Fed and pushing stimulus to economically illiterate people will you donate?
    https://youtu.be/6pnK7W4b0Ro?t=624

    Will Corruption’s Collusion Cancer Find A Cure?

    ;-)

  201. 1451
    Seah says:

    I’ve been hearing the eastside is still going above asking.
    Has and Will spring 2021 look different than last year ? Interest rate has climbed into the 3percent range.
    Has the industry started talking about the end eviction mortarium ?
    Enjoy your spring break .

    Erik I’ll look into that .
    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1447

  202. 1452
    Matt P says:

    Amazon not adopting WFH as a policy. Too many businesses to rent storefront to in all those shiny buildings that won’t rent if their workers don’t come back and buy from them. Also have apartments to rent out in some buildings. This will drive up rent and housing prices in the cities as workers come back and could have an effect on lowering prices in the burbs:

    https://www.geekwire.com/2021/amazon-updates-remote-work-guidance-plans-return-office-centric-culture-baseline/

  203. 1453
    ruxpert says:

    Retail Apocalypse Will Result in Another 80,000 Stores Closing by 2026
    https://www.businessinsider.com/retail-apocalypse-means-80000-store-closures-next-5-years-2021-4

    https://www.google.com/search?q=80%2C000+more+retail+closures+expected+next+5+years

    btw:
    How ‘afraid’ is FED of Deflation of scamdemic / looting it services?

    ;-)

  204. 1454
    ruxpert says:

    Krystal Ball: The Next Housing CRISIS Is Here And The Villains Are Exactly Who You’d Expect
    Apr 6, 2021
    https://youtu.be/EBb9zf_zWvU

    Bluebelle51:
    “They call it the American dream because you have to be asleep to believe it”
    ~George Carlin~


    Schiff:
    “Inflation is what is empowering the entire economy
    How is the FED going to fight Inflation
    when Inflation is the only thing the economy’s got going for it?”
    https://youtu.be/25abqSZSQ8A?t=504

    More than a SeattleBUBBLE! ;-)

  205. 1455

    RE: ruxpert @ 1453

    Yes ruxpert

    Boeing Commercial headquarters out at Long Acres is being sold, announced today….Boeing is not considering moving out of Seattle? Who do we believe? Follow the money.

  206. 1456

    RE: ruxpert @ 1454
    Buy Some Stock at DOW 34000?

    The stimulus checks are getting dumped into the stock market? This won’t last.

    The profits from stocks make real estate high risk? Buy before its sucked dry.

  207. 1457
    Whatsmyname says:

    March MLS numbers are in. SFR numbers for King County:

    Inventory of 976 is down 54% from 2,118 last year.
    Pending of 3,092 is up 28% from 2,415 last year.
    Closed of 2,256 is up 23% from 1,840 last year.
    Median price of $824,997 is up 14.5% from $720,400 last year, and 9% from $750,000 in February.
    Months of inventory is 0.43

  208. 1458
    Erik says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1457
    This time S-Crow and Eastsider are the villains. They told everyone not to buy in 2020 and prices are skyrocketing. They will continue to make bad predictions, watch.

    S-Crow and Eastsider:

    Please read some books on housing bubbles before you pop off with bad information. It keeps the uninformed readers poor. Some probably figure you are on a bubble site, so you understand. Like Justme and Sfrz, you both have no idea and acted irresponsibly. Please have some social accountability.

  209. 1459

    RE: Seah @ 1451

    There are a couple of considerations there. It is normal for The Eastside to go “above asking” in the 1st quarter as to houses vs condos and townhouses. Often the single family home market appreciation comes in the 1st and 2nd quarters and then flattens out for the balance of the year. So asking prices reflect last Spring and Summer comps and the new year prices are created by buyers. That is why there is a “spring bump”. The 2021 price is established via bid ups and the asking prices are established by 2020 summer closings. That normally continues until a given neighborhood has enough 2021 closings for list prices to be closer to 2021 value.

    Right now you have some neighborhoods on their 4th sale of 2021 selling “at asking” because the asking price is based on 2021 sold comps. You have other neighborhoods that had no sales since last summer still bidding up 20% to 30%.

    For the prime neighborhoods, I’m seeing 30% increase in 2021 prices but yes…I’ve seen that before and fairly often. In other neighborhoods it’s more like 20% and I guess in some neighborhoods where I don’t work it could be less. Not likely more…but less. Same with townhomes and condos. More like 10% vs 20% to 30%.

    Another thing happening is there is a change in consumer taste that is also creating some of these major bid ups. Split Entry homes as example. I remember The Tim saying he hated them and my saying they have always represented the most bang for the buck and I have always liked them. Their place at the bottom of the Single Family Home food chain is greatly changed this year due to COVID. People are valuing a full 3 bedroom “one story” house above with a lower level, usually daylight basement, component. That lower level makes a great work from home space with the children’s activities upstairs not being a problem. The early in the year and late last year bid ups of 20% to 30% were largely split entry homes because their value was depressed heretofore and people didn’t “like” them and now value them higher.

    So there are a lot of considerations at play on The Eastside. Right now I see some selling AT asking or close to or even prices reduced because the sellers jumped into pricing at what they expected to get based on 2021 closed sales while others are still in the 20% to 30% bid up category. So you first have to determine where the seller and agent got that asking price. Then you can take it from there.

  210. 1460
    Eastsider says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1459:

    For the prime neighborhoods, I’m seeing 30% increase in 2021 prices but yes…I’ve seen that before and fairly often.

    If only takes 3 x 30% increase to more than doubled, 4x to near tripled. I don’t think Seattle RE is this ‘hot’.

  211. 1461
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1458 – It is not prudent to ‘invest’ in RE at these prices. But for homeowners, the price you pay today does not matter in 30 years, as long as you can afford the mortgage payments. Homeowners don’t value their homes like investors value houses.

  212. 1462

    RE: Eastsider @ 1460

    I’m starting to wonder if you live in Texas. :) You haven’t seen prices double anywhere nearby in 2 to 4 years? I guess I work in the best of places. Seriously…have you not been listening to Erik at all? He more than doubled in 2 years his first sale. That one was in “my service area”.

    Woodridge Bellevue as example I’ve seen go up 30% in first quarter more than once in recent history.

  213. 1463

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1456

    My daughter “dumped” her stimulus checks into the stocks that went down because of COVID, not the ones that went up because of COVID and not an index fund. Seems like a valid use of it and a decent plan. I should have said one of my daughters.

  214. 1464
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1462 – I am actually very familiar with the Woodridge neighborhood. Erik’s sale is anecdotal. He buys some of his properties at auction and also invests a lot of time/money fixing up his TLC condos.

    Redfin has a Woodridge page with median sale price for past 5 years.

    https://www.redfin.com/neighborhood/3133/WA/Bellevue/Woodridge/housing-market

  215. 1465
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1461
    ROI = Net Profits/Cost of Investment

    For investing in single family in Seattle, the net profits come from appreciation. We can guess, but we cannot completely control that variable. We have control over “Cost of Investment,” so that’s where investors focus.

    For experienced real estate investors in Seattle, ROI trumps everything. Let me give you an example… If I can go to the King County auction and buy a property and pull all the money out when I refinance out of hard money, I’ve made a great investment no matter the cost. One caveat is it must be a desirable area and a product people want. The negative cash flow is beans compared to the appreciation potential.

    We are at the bottom of a long bull. This is the last housing bull market before we tank. I’m guessing this run goes 5 to 10 years and prices double in that time. I think that’s conservative. Government intervention is the stage we are in and this is the big final push. It could last longer and go higher, but probably not crash sooner.

    You know what Biden is doing with mortgage forbearance for borrowers affected by Covid? First he’s giving them 18 months to not pay their mortgage without fees. Then he’s putting people in 40 year mortgages. That’s extremely generous and gets rid of any concern for a housing bust. We are borrowing money like crazy. After Covid people will spend more on homes. Lending standards may be loosened at some point and prices will explode. We are at the bottom of a housing bubble and this one could be blown up a lot more. Now is the time to hold or buy and dump closer to the top. We have a long ways to go before the collapse.

  216. 1466
    SeaH says:

    I was about to say how eastsider can explain house prices double nearly 3 years and blame it on a bubble . There is actual demand here .

    I thinking coming in with a competitive offer is the hard part . RE: Erik @ 1458

  217. 1467
    Seah says:

    Eric, why do you think we at the bottom of the bull run… I feel this bull run started at end of 2011… and that was the bottom . What’s the reasoning? RE: Erik @ 1465

  218. 1468
    Eastsider says:

    RE: SeaH @ 1466 – If you read some old news articles before 2007 housing crash, there were long lines of people queuing up overnight to buy condos in Miami and other cities. There were ‘shortages’ insufficient to meet demand and prices were going to double! The rest is history.

    (Not suggesting that history will repeat but it often rhymes. And not just in RE.)

  219. 1469
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1465 – Two comments.

    Your ROI assumes that price appreciation will continue at this rate. Bill Hwang, a sophisticated hedge fund investor, made a similar bet on his stocks and lost his shirt.

    If the market is as healthy and prices as robust as you believe, we won’t need endless list of government interventions. By delaying the eventuality, it will make the fall a lot harder. Timing the market is impossible. But we have not outlawed price decline yet.

  220. 1470
    Eastsider says:

    Many people seem to believe prices will continue to far outpace inflation and income. At today’s prices, many young IT workers will have a hard time buying their first homes. Vast majority of million dollar homes on the Eastside are bought with mortgages. All cash sale is uncommon. Think about it.

  221. 1471
    Erik says:

    RE: SeaH @ 1466
    The last time I bought in Seattle was when the market crashed in 2019. If I can find something in a good area, I’ll buy it if I don’t have to spend a lot of money out of pocket.

  222. 1472
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1470
    Check this out… Say real estate in Seattle goes down $100k somehow in a year on a property I put nothing into.

    ROI = -$100k/0 = infinity. Remember, anything divided by zero is infinity. What happens after the investment doesn’t matter in regards to ROI in that case. Real estate is not the stock market. Real estate will go up overtime. With stocks, it’s a gamble.

    I never said the real estate market is healthy and prices are robust. I don’t believe that, so your statement is false. I agree that delaying longer will cause a bigger bust later. I disagree that it is impossible to time the real estate market.

    The part we disagree on is how big this bubble is going to get and how long it takes to crash. Our government is propping up a sick market. During bubbles like this, prices grow the fastest. It’s a great time to buy something and drop it off on an unsuspecting software worker at the top of the market. I believe prices will double from 2020 before we crash again. I know the market is being manipulated and we have problems. The government is in control now and prices will get more expensive.

  223. 1473
    Erik says:

    RE: Seah @ 1467
    2012 to 2017 was our last bull run. After that, the taper tantrum that started in 2018 and bottomed out in 2019. Prices started heading back up in 2020 and are still on a bull run.

    Inventory is super low and demand is high right now. As the government continues printing money to prop up the real estate market, prices will keep going up. Biden has already shown he plans to bailout real estate first, so that trend will likely continue for years. Government intervention can go on for many years and I believe that’s what will happen.

  224. 1474
    Back to Basics says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1470
    Biden’s infrastructure plan will cause labor shortage and price of construction labor, building material price hike. 40-50% of the SFH is related to labor and building materials. The other 50% of the SFH is the land price. We know land is very limited in King County. So SFH in the region will continue outpace inflation by a big margin. What’s our current inflation rate 2% -3%. SFH will appreciate at 6-7% long term in Seattle. Short term I0-12% due to inventory shortgage.

  225. 1475
    Erik says:

    RE: Back to Basics @ 1474
    Good point about the infrastructure plan increasing building supply costs and ultimately pushing housing prices higher. That could be another catalyst. In general, the catalyst for the next 5 to 10 years is the US government.

  226. 1476

    Life is Way Too Complicated Now

    Good prediction comments all. I’m glad my financial future is already set into cement and I’m retired…this rat -race for what’s left of our economy’s dwindling money is depressing. Ya got your stimulus checks, but can’t spend it like earned money….It ALL MUST BE SAVED.

    Eating out and vacations are cancelled, schools shut down forever….help wanted signs all over…..the only thing lucrative is saving money. I’m prone to old cars now….the new models have terrible defects at the get-go and no trunks. At least they know how to fix old ones. Whether it be electric or gas, Fords or Toyotas….the new cars are catching fire and failing lately. The MSM doesn’t mention the defects on new cars; they don’t dare. Even the 5 speed 2014 Chargers had more acceleration than the new 9 speed Jeep transmissions…older cars are better.

  227. 1477
    Brianna says:

    RE: Erik @ 1471

    🤔 I’m not sure I would classify housing prices in 2019 as a “crash” — It seemed that prices plateaued a bit in 2018-2019, but never seemed to drop. I’m curious what others on here thinks about this…

  228. 1478
    Erik says:

    RE: Brianna @ 1477
    The software people, Justme, Sfrz, S-crow, etc. all said the big one is here in 2019. I remember Deerhawk, me, and some others joked that 2019 was the big crash all those people had been talking about.

    Either way, the government will keep manipulating the market for years until we have a real crash, which I’m calling a bull market. There is lots more that can and will be done to keep this sick dog moving.

  229. 1479
    Brianna says:

    RE: Erik @ 1478

    Yes, I agree with you, that the market would have crashed by now if not for market manipulation by the government. But, I really don’t know how long they can keep it up. I think they are running out of options to keep our economy propped up for very long.

  230. 1480
    Erik says:

    RE: Brianna @ 1479
    How far do we push our luck? Sell 2024 if you want to be safe. No way the government will let us fall before then. That happens to coincide with the 18 year real estate peak to peak cycle. Just be prepared for values to go higher after 2024.

  231. 1481
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Back to Basics @ 1474 – SFH price appreciation can’t outpace income for a prolonged period. You can try to lower mortgage interest rates, reduce down payment requirement, ease mortgage qualification, delay mortgage payments, extend foreclosure moratorium, etc. but you will run out of options sooner or later. All these options have ‘issues’.

    The affordability index is generally a good gauge of market direction.

  232. 1482
    Blurtman says:

    One issue that I have about conclusions based upon analyses of median wealth, median wages, etc., is the neglect to consider the transition between these percentiles. Analyzing a buyer pool having certain wage and wealth characterisics must take into account entry and exit from the pool as well as re-entry (i.e., buying a second home or up or downsizing, that is, selling and buying a new home). So as long as people are upwards tansitioning, then the buyer pool is constantly refreshed. And the holding of price inflating assets enables an upwards transition.

  233. 1483
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1481
    Eastsider, I’ve told you a few times that housing prices don’t follow affordability. This is the last reminder before I feed you to the wolves.

    Are you believing me or do you have a bad memory?

  234. 1484
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1481 – Wasn’t it you posted the article about the real estate rental company buying a whole subdivision in Texas? Today’s buyer of single family homes faces more and increasing competition for relatively less product. That’s why median income continually becomes less relevant for house prices.

  235. 1485
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1484 – I’m not suggesting that home prices can’t continue to climb. We could become one of many metropolitan cities around the world where most people don’t own their homes. That said, you can easily get better risk adjusted return in other investments. The RE rental company buying in Texas can justify their investment there. I am not aware of any major RE rental company actively buying homes in this area. The numbers simply don’t work.

  236. 1486
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1485 – It’s a new thing; much like buying large portfolios of distressed/foreclosed properties and securitizing the rents was a new thing a few years ago. That didn’t start in this part of the county either, but they got here. Times are changing, brother.

    The key here is that prices can outpace income. Even rents don’t need a perfect correlation because almost everyone can move down in size and quality if they have to. And yes, we are becoming an area where more people rent than own.

  237. 1487
    Erik says:

    Redfin Data Center says year over year prices in Seattle metro are up 18% year over year or $100k. I told everyone to buy. Those that listened made $100k since last year. People that listened to Eastsider and other various code monkeys are priced out. The code monkeys are screwing readers with bad advice on this site and it’s obvious. We need to change that and attract smart people that don’t write computer code for money. We need Ray Pepper and Deerhawk back. No more code monkeys please, you are polluting this site with bad information. Just because you know Boolean logic doesn’t mean you are smart.

    2021 is a great buy year. Not as good as the previous 8 years, but a good year all the same. Buy now and sell in 2 years and rake cash. Depending on earned income is way more risky than investing in real estate.

  238. 1488
    Beano says:

    By Erik @ 1410:

    RE: OA @ 1392
    Meow! What a bunch of babies.

    Code monkeys stroking one another to validate themselves, great…

    Lolzzz.

  239. 1489
    ruxpert says:

    Mannarino – Apr 8, 2021
    (ALERT). The Economic Meltdown Is AGAIN Getting Worse. PLUS! Important Updates.
    https://youtu.be/-jw9lDbLDXA

    IMPORTANT UPDATE! Here Come Capital Injections And Yield Curve Control.
    https://youtu.be/2xwdRrBDB50

  240. 1490
    ruxpert says:

    From: Markets & Minds
    Date: 04/09/2021
    Subject: The Fed is lying to you
    https://tinyurl.com/35x6v4kc

    Today’s delayed release of the Producer Price Index just goes to show how little they and supposed ‘economists’ know.

    These ‘experts’ expected 0.5% price inflation month over month on materials manufacturers pay.
    Instead, they got 1.0%.
    Now you might say, “Ohh, they only missed by half a percent. That’s not that bad.”
    Try forecasting a budget for your boss that is off by 100% and see how that goes.
    Year over year, inflation jumped 4.2%, the largest jump since 4.5% in 2011.

    ———–
    Lumber Going Parabolic – Hyperinflation Incoming

    Absolute Mayhem is Coming, Be Careful What You Keep In the Banking System!

    In the coming mayhem from the destruction of fiat currencies against gold, the oversized global banking system will collapse…

    Which Way Wednesday – Fed Minutes and Fed Speak to Hold Us Up

    Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 744,000

    https://tinyurl.com/35x6v4kc

  241. 1491
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1490

    We Are Living Through The Scariest Economic Experiment In History Right Now…And No One Knows It
    Apr 5, 2021
    https://youtu.be/ddgxidI-X74

    But, as soon as this kind of coordinated effort appears, markets will lose confidence,
    inflation expectations will soar and interest rates will skyrocket.

    MMT Is a Disaster Waiting to Happen
    https://dailyreckoning.com/mmt-is-a-disaster-waiting-to-happen/

  242. 1492
    Eastsider says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1486:

    It’s a new thing; much like buying large portfolios of distressed/foreclosed properties and securitizing the rents was a new thing a few years ago. That didn’t start in this part of the county either, but they got here. Times are changing, brother.

    The key here is that prices can outpace income. Even rents don’t need a perfect correlation because almost everyone can move down in size and quality if they have to. And yes, we are becoming an area where more people rent than own.

    Govt and banks unloaded their inventory at deep discount to these opportunistic and well-connected capitalists. Fire sales to big investors (e.g. Buffett) happen regularly during bear markets. There is nothing special there except “connection” and “access”.

    If Seattle RE is profitable, these national players would be here. If they have a local inventory, it would make sense for them to sell at these prices.

  243. 1493
    Erik says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1489
    I’m not sure if I like Mannarino yet. Why do you listen to him and believe what he says? When I googled “Mannarino,” a tennis player popped up on my search. I try to be careful as to what goes into my brain.

  244. 1494
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Erik @ 1493

    Yeah, he’s prolly just another ‘Conspiracy Theorist’? ;-)

    Hey, which gets me thinking:

    would investors who ignore the systemic fraud in the economy be ‘conspiracy theorist’ claiming to trust the people supposedly working together to insure their investment’s outcome?
    ;-)
    —–
    btw, did you get a chance to see that Bill Black audio/interview about Fraud,
    if so, what do you think of that term B.Black coined during investigation / prosecution of the Savings & Loan Scandal Crisis Crimes Convictions; ‘Control Fraud’?

    Black was a central figure in exposing Congressional corruption during the Savings and Loan Crisis. He took the notes during the Keating Five meeting that were later published in the press, and brought the event to national attention and a congressional investigation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_K._Black

    Crash Concepts:

    Bill Black: Our System is So Flawed That Fraud is Mathematically Guaranteed
    How did we allow things to get this bad?
    https://www.peakprosperity.com/bill-black-our-system-is-so-flawed-that-fraud-is-mathematically-guaranteed-3/

    —–
    also consider:
    Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit

  245. 1495
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1492

    Easy to get a discount when you are bulk buying assets that are going begging for buyers (and at discount anyway). The “connection” and “access” was money, and willingness to buy.

    There had not been in my lifetime or yours, such a glut of troubled SFR assets, and never the financial technology for individual entities to profitably take down such large numbers of them. This was a serious development for larger scaling of corporate ownership in rental houses (vs apartments) and made inroads in conversion of owner occupied houses to permanent rentals. Buying new subdivisions is another big step – and also one which wasn’t feasible before. You might ask yourself why it’s happening at all, and why in a top growth state, before settling back on your it’ll never happen here mentality.

    The securitization guys did take Seattle properties, and they’ll take more. You would have them dismantle an ongoing earnings machine, unwind multi-year obligations, and kiss off an easy generator of debt based cash, in order to create a significant taxable event? For what purpose? These guys have no interest in joining you in the S&P.

  246. 1496
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1495 – Do you have data that the big guys are scooping up meaningful # of SFHs for rental here? I understand some big buyers during the housing crash are now unloading part of their inventory at current prices.

  247. 1497
    don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1496

    Eastsider, where are you seeing evidence of selling by big guys?

  248. 1498
    Brianna says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1496

    Yeah, I’m not seeing a lot of people unloading properties at this time. I just spoke to a friend, who has owned their home for decades, and wants to sell and downsize. They would stand to make a very sizable profit on the sale of their home. But… they don’t want to have to buy in this market. And this keeps the unbalanced market cycle going.

    I would love to see people unloading properties, for the inventory to increase, for the prices to at least stop climbing so high… but I have to reconcile between what I want to happen versus what is actually happening.

    I have seen properties being bid up incredibly-and some that have sold and closed in just weeks (I’m assuming these are cash deals). Perhaps some of these big buyers are anticipating the dollar becoming devalued, high inflation hitting our economy, and just want a way to park their cash so it will hold value? That’s my suspicion.

  249. 1499
    Erik says:

    RE: don @ 1497
    Last time I bought at the auction in September 2019, black rock and other hedge funds were bidding on houses in Seattle as well. I talked to the gentleman that represents black rock and asked him why black rock is buying now. He said no particular reason and that black rock sees Seattle as a long term investment.

    I would imagine black rock and other large investment firms are still buying on Seattle, but I cannot confirm that. Hedge funds have been at the king county auction steadily since the market tanked in 2012. I’m sure they’ll be back when the foreclosure moratorium lifts.

  250. 1500

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