Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'NWMLS'

NWMLS: Fake Expiration of Wasteful Tax Credit Boosts October Sales

By The Tim on November 5th, 2009 at 12:32 PM · 62 Comments

Let’s have a look at October market statistics from the NWMLS. Here’s the NWMLS press release: Tax credit spurs big surge in Western Washington home sales.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is positive or negative news for buyers and sellers:

October 2009 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 8,869 -5.2% -19.7%
Closed Sales 1,758 +8.7% +33.3%
SAAS (?) 1.61 -11.4% -27.9%
Pending Sales 2,295 +0.3% +72.9%
Months of Supply 3.86 -5.5% -53.6%
Median Price* $377,500 -1.2% -3.7%

In a great big surprise to absolutely nobody, closed sales bumped up in a seasonally unnatural pattern in October, no doubt due to the belief many buyers had that the $8,000 tax credit would be expiring at the end of November (it is now foolishly being renewed and extended, pushed through Congress on the back of an unrelated extension of unemployment benefits).

At this point it still looks unlikely that closed sales will manage to break through the 2,000 mark this year. In the past, closed sales have fallen an average of 15% from October to November. I suspect that this year we may see sales hold steady or possibly even post a slight increase, but a 14% increase would be surprising, especially with the tax credit now having been extended.

Here’s how the closed sales situation is shaping up compared to previous years:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Thanks to an apparent abundance of eager homebuyers that aren’t very good at math, closed sales made a clear break from the trend seen every other year since 2000, ticking up from September to October. I expect a similar market distortion to appear next month as well.

Feel free to download the updated Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet, and here’s a copy in Excel 2003 format. Click below for the rest of the usual monthly graphs.

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Puget Sound Counties Interactive September Update

By The Tim on November 2nd, 2009 at 8:00 AM · 5 Comments

Whoops, sorry this is late. It took a little extra time to put together this month, as I finally switched the data over from months of supply to Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply. So, let’s have our September data checkup of NWMLS statistics from around the sound. As usual, courtesy Tableau Software, the Around the Sound update is rocking exclusive interactive data visualizations.

Feel free to download the old charts in Excel 2007 and Excel 2003 format. To get specific info about a certain point on any graph in the post below, float your mouse pointer over the data.

Before we get to the cool stuff, here’s the usual table of YOY stats for each of our seven covered counties as of September 2009.

September 2009 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price 7.9% 11.1% 8.2% 4.6% 2.8% 1.8% 2.0% 8.7%
Listings 19.4% 23.6% 25.8% 25.1% 15.8% 2.0% 4.9% 9.7%
Closed Sales 14.3% 14.6% 12.4% 14.5% 1.5% 11.5% 20.9% 19.3%
Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.5 3.0 1.5

Hit the jump for this month’s interactive charts.

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September Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood

By The Tim on October 29th, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 5 Comments

Let’s check in again on our regular monthly neighborhood update to Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply (SAAS). For an explanation of what seasonally-adjusted active supply is, please refer to this post. Also, you may view a map of the areas discussed in this post.

As usual, the sweet interactive data visualizations (new and improved!) in today’s post come to you courtesy Tableau Software.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS dropped further below the “balanced” level, coming in at 1.80 for September (August was 1.88). 11 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets, 5 of 30 came in above 2.25 as buyer’s markets, and the remaining 14 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

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NWMLS: Closed Sales Volume in Summer Holding Pattern

By The Tim on October 5th, 2009 at 1:14 PM · 47 Comments

Looks like it’s time for September market statistics from the NWMLS. Here’s the NWMLS press release: Northwest MLS brokers agree "there’s a lot to be optimistic about".

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is positive or negative news for buyers and sellers:

September 2009 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 9,360 -1.4% -19.4%
Closed Sales 1,618 +0.6% +14.3%
SAAS (?) 1.82 -5.1% -19.3%
Pending Sales 2,289 -1.0% +29.5
Months of Supply 4.09 -0.4% -37.8%
Median Price* $382,160 +1.9% -7.9%

Closed sales were basically in a holding pattern the last four months, trending similarly to the pattern we have seen in pending sales since roughly April. April – September pending sales have ranged between 2,114 and 2,447, while June – September closed sales have ranged between 1,609 and 1,727.

I suspect we will see a much stronger November for closed sales than usual, due to the impending expiration of the free money handout for knife-catchers, but I doubt that it will climb much above the 1,600-1,700 range we have seen through the summer. Historically (2000-2008), November closed sales volume has averaged 71% of June volume. 71% of this year’s June volume would be 1,179 sales this November. I’m guessing it will be higher than that, but I don’t see it going much above 1,500 – 1,600.

Here’s a visual of June volume (usually at or near the peak in the summer) vs. November volume since 2000:

King County SFH Closed Sales: June & November

Here’s how the closed sales situation is shaping up compared to previous years:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Feel free to download the updated Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet, and here’s a copy in Excel 2003 format. Click below for the graphs and the rest of the post.

[Read more →]

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Can the NWMLS Control Online Conversations About Listings?

By The Tim on October 2nd, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 62 Comments

I linked this up last week on the Twitter account, but the story has been getting enough chit chat online in the last few days that I figure it deserves its own post here.

In news first broken by local REALTOR® Marlow Harris, the NWMLS will apparently be adding two new ways to fine their members via a pair of new fields on the listing input sheets. In essence, new checkboxes have been added to the listing sheet: “buzz off Zillow” and “beat it bloggers.”

What this means is that sellers are now given the option of whether or not Zillow estimates will be allowed to appear on their listings that are posted on NWMLS member sites, and also the option of whether or not NWMLS members are permitted to blog about their listing. For the full official description of the two new listing parameters hit Marlow’s September 25th post for an excerpt from the NWMLS bulletin.

Median Sale Price / sq. ft.

Obviously the point of the first one is obvious. Giving the potential seller an option to prevent Zillow and other “automatic valuation model” price estimates from appearing next to their listing is no doubt something that some sellers and agents have wished for for some time. Despite the fact that Zillow is a completely automated system based on sometimes incorrect inputs, and the company openly admits that their estimates should not be treated as a gold standard, some sellers and seller’s agents have convinced themselves that if a Zillow estimate displayed on the same page as their listing is lower than their asking price, it’s Zillow’s fault if nobody wants to buy their house.

The second option is actually opening up their rules just slightly, as they previously had a blanket prohibition on NWMLS member agents blogging about any listings that were not your own. That’s what the $50,000 fine slapped on Redfin in 2007 was all about. With this new checkbox, sellers will now be able to “opt-in” to blogging.

Not surprisingly, the anti-Zillow move has stirred up some in the industry, especially among those that have had it in for Zillow since day one. Since Zillow is not a member of the NWMLS themselves, insiders there insist that the new rule will have little effect on their business. I have pointed this out when people have asked in the past, but this is a prime example of why I have no interest in Seattle Bubble becoming a member of the NWMLS, even though it would gain me direct access to their database for some prime number-crunching.

In an amusing twist on the whole thing, Marlow followed up her post on these new rules with another angle on the subject yesterday: Can new technology make some MLS rules unenforceable?

It could be that technology will trump all of these new NWMLS rules, and blogging/comments/AVM restrictions will become ineffective and impossible to enforce with the new Google Toolbar application called Sidewiki.

…anyone who installs the Sidewiki will be able to add comments to your real estate webpage, including individual property pages that you may have created to help market your properties.

There is no “opt-out” tab, no way to eliminate the sidebar comments, no way to edit out objectionable material, porn, spam links, comments on the personal character of the sellers or the agent or the home or the neighborhood.

It seems to me that the NWMLS rules are set up to attempt to restrict and stifle as much conversation about listings as possible in a misguided attempt to give the seller absolute control over how their home is “marketed.” Unfortunately for the NWMLS, fancy technology or not, people are free to talk about home listings in real life in whatever way they choose.

If I wanted to start a weekly tour of the most overpriced homes in Seattle, where we drive around town and gather outside homes for sale through the NWMLS and mock the granite countertops and other such faux-luxury “upgrades,” the NWMLS can’t stop me. And once you move the conversation online, it becomes even less possible to control it.

If I wanted to start a website that provided a searchable map of every house for sale on the market, linked to open forum threads on every house where people could say whatever they want about the agent or the home or the neighborhood—again, the NWMLS couldn’t do a thing about it.

The NWMLS can certainly exert control over their members by levying ridiculously large fines for seemingly innocuous conversations, but in my opinion, the more they attempt to stifle and restrict the free flow of information and ideas relating to their precious listings, the more they will encourage another, more open competitor to step up and make their entire system obsolete.

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August Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood

By The Tim on September 28th, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 58 Comments

Let’s check in again on our regular monthly neighborhood update to Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply (SAAS). For an explanation of what seasonally-adjusted active supply is, please refer to this post. Also, you may view a map of the areas discussed in this post.

As usual, the sweet interactive data visualizations in today’s post come to you courtesy Tableau Software.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply

With new listings continuing to wane, King County’s overall SAAS finally dropped below the “balanced” level, coming in at 1.88 for August (July was 2.01). 10 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets, 7 of 30 came in above 2.25 as buyer’s markets, and the remaining 13 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

[Read more →]

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