Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'Zillow'

Zillow: Homeowners in the West “Continue to be Overly Optimistic”

By The Tim on November 18th, 2009 at 7:23 AM · 53 Comments

Zillow’s latest “Homeowner Confidence” survey came out yesterday, and as usual, provides an interesting look into the psychology of the market.

…in the hardest-hit region of the country, the Western states, homeowners continued to be overly optimistic when evaluating the value of their own homes.

Nationwide, when asked about their own home’s value over the past year:

  • 25% think their home’s value has increased
  • 26% think their home’s value has stayed the same
  • 49% think their home’s value has decreased

In reality, 72 percent of U.S. homes lost value over the past year, and 22 percent of homes increased in value.

Drilling down into the more detailed release (pdf), you can see that out here in the west, homeowners still seem to be the most overly optimistic bunch in the country.

Zillow Misperception Index

53% of homeowners in the west believe their home has declined in value in the last year, while 28% believe their homes have increased in value. In reality (according to Zillow), 78% of homes have declined in value, and only 17% have increased.

Meanwhile, only 15% of homeowners in the west expect their home’s value to decrease during the next six months, which is not too surprising given that nearly half the people surveyed base their belief in a housing market bottom on “general good news about the economy.”

With the stock market continuing to surge (quite likely due to a growing dollar carry trade) and the mainstream press giddily pumping an alleged recovery while all but completely ignoring the fact that none of the underlying poisons in the economy have been addressed (and in fact many of the problems have been amplified), of course most people would believe that housing has bottomed.

→ 53 CommentsCategories: Statistics
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Can the NWMLS Control Online Conversations About Listings?

By The Tim on October 2nd, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 62 Comments

I linked this up last week on the Twitter account, but the story has been getting enough chit chat online in the last few days that I figure it deserves its own post here.

In news first broken by local REALTOR® Marlow Harris, the NWMLS will apparently be adding two new ways to fine their members via a pair of new fields on the listing input sheets. In essence, new checkboxes have been added to the listing sheet: “buzz off Zillow” and “beat it bloggers.”

What this means is that sellers are now given the option of whether or not Zillow estimates will be allowed to appear on their listings that are posted on NWMLS member sites, and also the option of whether or not NWMLS members are permitted to blog about their listing. For the full official description of the two new listing parameters hit Marlow’s September 25th post for an excerpt from the NWMLS bulletin.

Median Sale Price / sq. ft.

Obviously the point of the first one is obvious. Giving the potential seller an option to prevent Zillow and other “automatic valuation model” price estimates from appearing next to their listing is no doubt something that some sellers and agents have wished for for some time. Despite the fact that Zillow is a completely automated system based on sometimes incorrect inputs, and the company openly admits that their estimates should not be treated as a gold standard, some sellers and seller’s agents have convinced themselves that if a Zillow estimate displayed on the same page as their listing is lower than their asking price, it’s Zillow’s fault if nobody wants to buy their house.

The second option is actually opening up their rules just slightly, as they previously had a blanket prohibition on NWMLS member agents blogging about any listings that were not your own. That’s what the $50,000 fine slapped on Redfin in 2007 was all about. With this new checkbox, sellers will now be able to “opt-in” to blogging.

Not surprisingly, the anti-Zillow move has stirred up some in the industry, especially among those that have had it in for Zillow since day one. Since Zillow is not a member of the NWMLS themselves, insiders there insist that the new rule will have little effect on their business. I have pointed this out when people have asked in the past, but this is a prime example of why I have no interest in Seattle Bubble becoming a member of the NWMLS, even though it would gain me direct access to their database for some prime number-crunching.

In an amusing twist on the whole thing, Marlow followed up her post on these new rules with another angle on the subject yesterday: Can new technology make some MLS rules unenforceable?

It could be that technology will trump all of these new NWMLS rules, and blogging/comments/AVM restrictions will become ineffective and impossible to enforce with the new Google Toolbar application called Sidewiki.

…anyone who installs the Sidewiki will be able to add comments to your real estate webpage, including individual property pages that you may have created to help market your properties.

There is no “opt-out” tab, no way to eliminate the sidebar comments, no way to edit out objectionable material, porn, spam links, comments on the personal character of the sellers or the agent or the home or the neighborhood.

It seems to me that the NWMLS rules are set up to attempt to restrict and stifle as much conversation about listings as possible in a misguided attempt to give the seller absolute control over how their home is “marketed.” Unfortunately for the NWMLS, fancy technology or not, people are free to talk about home listings in real life in whatever way they choose.

If I wanted to start a weekly tour of the most overpriced homes in Seattle, where we drive around town and gather outside homes for sale through the NWMLS and mock the granite countertops and other such faux-luxury “upgrades,” the NWMLS can’t stop me. And once you move the conversation online, it becomes even less possible to control it.

If I wanted to start a website that provided a searchable map of every house for sale on the market, linked to open forum threads on every house where people could say whatever they want about the agent or the home or the neighborhood—again, the NWMLS couldn’t do a thing about it.

The NWMLS can certainly exert control over their members by levying ridiculously large fines for seemingly innocuous conversations, but in my opinion, the more they attempt to stifle and restrict the free flow of information and ideas relating to their precious listings, the more they will encourage another, more open competitor to step up and make their entire system obsolete.

→ 62 CommentsCategories: Opinion
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List Prices: Seattle vs. Other Large Cities

By The Tim on September 23rd, 2009 at 12:00 PM · 72 Comments

Admittedly, yesterday’s post comparing home prices in Seattle to a remote location in Wisconsin really wasn’t fair. Granted, it was posted more for humor than for serious consideration, but there are certainly better comparisons that we could have made.

So what would be more fair? How about if we take the top 25 cities in the country by population, and see how Seattle home prices stack up?

Here are the top 25 cities in the United States, sorted by population based on Census Bureau estimates from July 2008 (source):

Top 25 US Cities by Population

And here’s the same list of cities, sorted by population density (people per square mile):

Top 25 US Cities by Population

Now here’s the same list of cities, sorted by median list price (source):

Top 25 US Cities by Population, Sorted by Median List Price

Detroit at #25 makes sense to me. Seattle at #3 above New York, Los Angeles, Boston, and Chicago… not so much. I guess Seattle is still special (at least in the minds of sellers)!

→ 72 CommentsCategories: Statistics
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Local Real Estate Search iPhone App Smackdown

By The Tim on September 8th, 2009 at 1:29 PM · 17 Comments

This is a guest post from Kevin Lisota of Findwell Real Estate. The Bay Area may still have more tech companies than Seattle, but we definitely seem to be leading the way in real estate tech, with four local companies now offering iPhone apps for real estate search. Unfortunately I don’t have an iPhone, so Kevin generously offered to write a comparison of the various iPhone apps available for Seattle real estate searchers.

Seattle has suddenly become a hotbed of real estate apps for the iPhone, now with four major competitors: Zillow, John L Scott, Coldwell Banker, and the newest entrant, Redfin. Since The Tim doesn’t have an iPhone, I offered to jump in and and provide a head-to-head SMACKDOWN between these four heavyweights of the Seattle real estate world. (Full Disclosure: I run findwell, a competitor to all of these companies and an advertiser on Seattle Bubble. We don’t have our own iPhone app at the moment, so I can be objective in this comparison.)

Click below to read the full SMACKDOWN.

[Read more →]

→ 17 CommentsCategories: Features
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Zillow: Seattle Home Sellers Take Increasing Losses

By The Tim on February 3rd, 2009 at 8:56 AM · 32 Comments

Zillow has posted their latest quarterly home value reports.

Home Values in Seattle (Zillow)

Their charts for the Seattle area include a graph of the percentage of homes sold at a loss (approaching 30%) as well as a chart showing the percentage of recent buyers with negative equity (over 50% of 2007 buyers).

Homes Sold for a Loss (Zillow)

Interesting stuff from Zillow as usual.

You can also find additional news coverage of Zillow’s report at the Seattle Times and at Aubrey Cohen’s blog.

→ 32 CommentsCategories: News
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Zillow: Some Homeowners Still Fooling Themselves

By The Tim on October 31st, 2008 at 9:04 AM · 28 Comments

Zillow’s latest Homeowner Confidence Survey is at least worth a brief mention. According to the third quarter update, only 65% of homeowners in the West believe that their home declined in value over the last year, while in reality 85% of homes experienced falling prices. Read Zillow’s own blog post about the report here.

Zillow Q3 Homeowner Confidence Survey

Also interesting is the fact that 39% of those surveyed believed that their own home would decrease in value over the next six months, while 57% of that same survey group believed that the overall value of homes in their local market would decrease. I guess there are a lot of ultra-hyper-micro-local real estate markets out there.

The discontinuity between homeowner perception and reality was not as extreme as it was in last quarter’s report, but it still seems awfully large, especially if you believe (as many in the real estate industry do) that the media has been nothing but “doom and gloom” about the real estate market.

→ 28 CommentsCategories: News
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