What does Personal Income tell us about near future home prices?

There have been a couple of discussions in the comments section in the last week or so about the relationship between home prices and incomes.   I thought it would be  a good time to queue up a post about the long-term price-to-income trends, where we are now, and what the possible outcomes could be. The […]

Update: Boom and Bust Cycles Across Markets

Back in July I posted a comparison of the total percentage gain during the boom years to the total percentage drop from peak to date across a bunch of markets, to see if I could establish a clear relationship or correlation between the two. I wanted to give a quick update on this analysis. As […]

Comparing the US and Japanese Housing Bubbles

I have been looking for a graphic that accurately compared the Japanese and US housing bubbles for some time.  Usually when you see this sort of thing, it compares US housing prices to Japanese land prices – as shown below in a chart clipped from the Economist. Comparison of US housing and Japanese land prices. […]

Falling from the outside in

One of the topics discussed frequently on this blog is the notion that prices in the suburbs are likely to fall much further and faster than prices in the urban core of Seattle. Yesterday Zillow posted their quarterly market update data. I will say that while I’m ambivalent about Zillow’s “Z-estimate” feature, which attempts to […]

Comparing Boom and Bust Cycles Across Markets

The point has been made many times here that exposure to downturns needs to be viewed in the context of how much a market rose during the boom.  I thought it would be interesting to test this by comparing the total percentage gain during the boom years to the total percentage drop from peak to […]

Local economic news looking like national headlines

There were a couple of stories in the Seattle Times over the weekend pertaining to the health of the local economy.  The first was an article on the commercial real estate market, highlighting a forecast for falling rents. Commercial real-estate brokers James Keating and Sean Barnes have one word of advice for their clients looking […]