Low affordability may be why sales are stalling out

By popular request, let’s take a look at our affordability index charts for the counties around Puget Sound.

As of August, the affordability index has bounced up slightly from its May low (which was the lowest point since nearly a decade ago in July 2008), but still sits at the very low level of 85.0.

For context, eighty-six percent of the 306 months on record back through 1993 have had a higher affordability index than what we had in August 2018…

New listing absorption softens more as pending sales slip

I’ve got a few charts to update you with, but let’s start with a few charts that sum up the state of King County single-family listings, inventory, and pending sales.

After five or six years of the same story month after month—fewer listings, more sales, soaring prices—the market has definitely turned in 2018. Pending sales are now on the decline and inventory is rising rapidly. Let’s see what this looks like in charts…

NWMLS: Prices retreat slightly as inventory continues to climb

July market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. The biggest news is still the climb in inventory, which is up 256 percent from the all-time low that was set back in December. If the current trend continues (a big “if”), it’s entirely possible that by the end of this year inventory will be at its highest point since 2011.

July Stats Preview: The 2018 Listings Surge Continues

The 2018 listings surge continued in July, with on-market single-family inventory hitting its highest level since October 2013.

Here’s the overall summary for July: Sales fell both month-over-month and year-over-year. Listings shot up yet again. Foreclosures are still at all-time lows.

NWMLS: Listings surge as sales and prices soften a bit

The big news in this month’s numbers is yet again the big bump in total on-market inventory. That said, prices look like they’re beginning to soften as well, which is unusual for what is normally the hottest time of year for price gains.

Inventory rose twenty-eight percent from May to June, and was up forty-three percent from last year. We’re definitely forming an interesting trend now. This year has seen listings building up a lot faster than any recent year. Meanwhile, sales are softening…

June Stats Preview: Listings surge even higher in June

Last month we noticed a big surge in listings in King County in our preview data for May, and in June it looks like the trend is getting stronger. On-market listings of single-family homes nearly hit their highest point in four years in June, surging 28 percent in a single month.

The overall summary for June is that sales edged up from May, but saw the biggest year-over-year decline since April 2011. Listings shot up and are starting to form a very interesting trend. Foreclosures are still few and far between.

Case-Shiller: Seattle’s streak on top continues…

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to April data that was released last week, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 2.7 percent March to April
Up 13.1 percent year-over-year.
Up 30.8 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 2.6 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 12.9 percent.

Seattle still leads the nation in both year-over-year and month-over-month home price growth. Seattle has had the highest year-over-year price growth since September 2016. The only other metro areas with double-digit price growth from a year earlier in April were Las Vegas at 12.7 percent and San Francisco at 10.9 percent.