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Category: Statistics

Statistics, number-based analysis, etc.

King Co. SFH New Listing Absorption Rate

New Listing Absorption Dropping Rapidly From December High

Posted on July 12, 2017July 12, 2017 by The Tim

By request, here are a few alternative takes on recent home listing activity. Since one of the biggest issues driving the current crazy market is a lack of enough home listings, we can get an idea of whether or not there is any relief on the horizon for buyers by looking at listing activity.

First up, here’s a chart I just created: New listing absorption. This is a simple look at the ratio of pending sales to new listings. If more homes are going pending in a month than there are being listed, this ratio goes above 100 percent, which is obviously not great for buyers.

…what’s interesting to me about this chart is that just last December we saw new listing absorption an all-time high of 159%, while as of June it has fallen to almost the lowest level since the market bottomed out in 2011. However, this is obviously a very seasonal metric, and the low point for the year usually comes in June or July, so it would not be surprising if this is the lowest level we see this year.

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NWMLS: Prices are obscene and the market is still stupidly hot, but June saw a record high monthly increase in inventory

Posted on July 6, 2017July 6, 2017 by The Tim

June market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Their press release hasn’t been published yet, so maybe we’ll do a reporting roundup tomorrow and take a look at Lennox Scott’s breathless Lereah-esque bloviations.

For now, let’s just dive into the numbers for June.
…
New listings are coming on at a decent pace and inventory actually saw a decent increase, but buyers are still snatching up most listings very quickly. The average time on market in King County for single-family home sales that closed in June was just 17 days—an all-time low…

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June Stats Preview: Listings Inch Up, Sales Still Strong

Posted on July 5, 2017July 5, 2017 by The Tim

Let’s take a look at regular monthly “preview” charts. Now that June is in the past let’s take a look at the local housing market stats for the month. Short story: Inventory bumped up slightly, but is still in the gutter. Sales are still very strong.

…

Listings are still very scarce, but at least they’ve bumped up quite a bit from the all-time low. Sales are strong, and hit their highest point since sometime before 2009 in Snohomish County.

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Case-Shiller Tiers: Prices In All Tiers Skyrocket in 2017

Posted on June 29, 2017 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

All three tiers have basically been skyrocketing month-over-month since January. Not a great sign for anyone hoping for a slowdown this year.

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Case-Shiller: Seattle Real Estate is Hot, Hot, HOT!

Posted on June 27, 2017 by The Tim

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to March data that was released this morning, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 2.6 percent March to April
Up 12.9 percent year-over-year.
Up 15.7 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 2.1 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 10.7 percent.

Seattle home prices as measured by Case-Shiller shot up yet again to a new all-time high in April, and let the nation in month-over-month and year-over-year price gains for the third month in a row. We’re also the only market still seeing double-digit year-over-year price gains. #SeattleIsSpecial

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