Seattle Bubble

Now that October is behind us, let’s have a look at the monthly stats preview. Most of the charts below are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County Records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the “preview,” drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Here’s your preview of October’s foreclosure and home sale stats:

First up, total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with the county:

County sales as measured by warranty deeds were up significantly (16.7%) from last year in October, and marked another month-to-month increase (5.2%). This is no surprise, since as I mentioned last month, the impending expiration of the $8,000 mortgage subsidy is definitely having an effect on the people who have been duped into thinking we have already hit bottom.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices actually declined from September, which could signal either an easing in the foreclosure “crisis” or possibly just a continued lag as the pipeline from SB 5810 continues to fill. We probably won’t really know for sure which one it is until sometime next year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

A new record high in October, lagging the peak month for Trustee Sale notices by four months.

Lastly, here’s an approximate guess at where the month-end inventory was, based on our sidebar inventory tracker (powered by Estately):

Looks like listings will be down around 13% year-over-year, and 6% month-to-month.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

With September in the bag, let’s have a look at the monthly stats preview. Most of the charts below are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County Records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the “preview,” drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Here’s your preview of September’s foreclosure and home sale stats:

First up, total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with the county:

County sales as measured by warranty deeds were down just slightly (0.3%) from last year in September, and actually increased month-to-month, up 7% from August. I would not be surprised to see September through November sales make a stronger showing than is usual for this time of year, with the impending expiration of the $8,000 free money giveaway pushing people who are bad at math to make a rush decision on a highly leveraged purchase.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

September was the second-lowest month this year, but still came in higher than any month in 2008. I suspect this number will continue to rise back up to around the 1,000 mark.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Second-highest month on record, despite the various changes to the foreclosure process legislated earlier this year here in Washington.

Lastly, here’s an approximate guess at where the month-end inventory was, based on our sidebar inventory tracker (powered by Estately):

If our tracker is close to the official numbers, inventory may actually increase slightly from August, but will still be down about 12% from last year’s level.

I don’t know about you, but there’s still nothing in these numbers that screams (or even really whispers) “imminent recovery” to me. Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

Now that August is behind us, let’s have a look at the monthly stats preview. Most of the charts below are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County Records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the “preview,” drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Here’s your preview of August’s foreclosure and home sale stats:

First up, total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with the county:

County sales as measured by warranty deeds were down about 8% from last year in August, and off 10% from July.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Looks like exactly what we expected to happen. In our July foreclosure update a few weeks ago, I said “it is likely that we will see a lull in apparent foreclosure activity for a month or two as the newly-legislated time in the pipeline fills up.” Actually I was surprised to see that despite the lull, we still came in slightly higher than last year (+7%).

Here’s another measure of foreclosures, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Down from July’s high, but still up 86% from last year. Since actual repossessions lag trustee sale notices by 90 days, we can probably expect to see this drop for the next few months.

Lastly, here’s an approximate guess at where the month-end inventory was, based on our sidebar inventory tracker (powered by Estately):

If our tracker is close to the official numbers, inventory will decline again slightly, for another year-over-year decrease of about 18%.

It looks like there still aren’t any convincing signs of a strong recovery underway in the sales figures. Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

Here’s a new feature that I’ll make monthly if there’s demand for it. Although the NWMLS data is not released until later this week and we usually wait for the detailed foreclosure report until later in the month, certain basic data can be obtained via a simple search of King County Records.

Using data pulled from public documents filed with King County, here’s a preview of July’s foreclosure and home sale stats:

First up, total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with the county:

County sales as measured by warranty deeds were down about 6% from last year in July.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

July saw a big decline over June’s surge, but another big year-over-year rise and the second-highest level ever.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Since trustee deeds will naturally lag notices of trustee sale (which are filed 90 days prior to a scheduled sale), it is no surprise that July set a new record for this type of repossession.

Lastly, here’s an approximate guess at where the month-end inventory was, based on our sidebar inventory tracker (powered by Estately):

Nothing too surprising here. Looks like there may be a slight increase from last month, but still a considerable decrease from July last year (which was supposedly the first month in which stats were generated under the new definitions).

Overall, I’m still not seeing any strong signs of an imminent recovery in the numbers. Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.