Unfortunately, due to a change in definition by the NWMLS last July, the number of active listings will be lower than a year ago, while the number of pending sales will be higher, causing the months of supply to be lower than it would otherwise have been.

Summary

April MOS for King County as a whole dipped down further into so-called “seller’s market” territory at 4.5.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood. Again, take the below comparison with a giant grain of salt, since the NWMLS has changed the way they count listings and pendings since last year. As an example of how this data may be skewed, if there were 6,000 active listings last year (300 of which—5%—were “subject to inspection”) and 1,000 pending sales, we would have had 6.0 months of supply. However, this year under the new counting method, the same scenario would result in 5,700 active listings and 1,300 pending sales (300 being “pending inspection”), giving us 4.4 months of supply—27% lower.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Even with the change, most of the Eastside remains above 6 months of supply, while most of the other neighborhoods around King have dropped below 6.

Regional History

Months of supply decreased again in most neighborhoods from March to April, matching the normal seasonal pattern. Just nine of thirty neighborhoods remained in “buyer’s market” territory.

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper dropped further into “seller’s market” territory at 3.7, while the Eastside as a whole dropped as well, but remained a “buyer’s market” at 6.2.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Enumclaw (300) at 11.3, Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 10.8, and Kirkland–Bridle Trails (560) at 9.9.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Central Seattle SW / Beacon Hill (385) at 2.3, Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 2.4, and North Seattle (710) at 2.7.

Here’s your look at March’s “Months of Supply” for the 30 NWMLS areas in King County. For an explanation of what months of supply means, please refer to the original neighborhood MOS breakdown post. Also, view a map of these areas here.

March MOS for King County as a whole dipped down into so-called “seller’s market” territory at 5.70 (compared to 6.19 for March 2008). The record run of county-wide 6+ MOS has ended at eighteen months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the thirteen-month period of March 2008 through March 2009. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). The charts all have the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right.

Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0. It is also important to remember that whatever the reason, over twenty-five percent of pending sales are not making it to closing, which means that these statistics are likely overstating the magnitude of the “seller’s market.”

We’ll start off with the chart that lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. March 2008 is in red, and 2009 is in blue.

Following below are the breakouts for SW King, SE King, Seattle, N King, and the Eastside, as well as a summary of this month’s data.

Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

Months of supply decreased in most neighborhoods from February to March, which is the usual pattern as we move from winter to spring. Twelve neighborhoods remained in “buyer’s market” territory, while eighteen are now “seller’s markets.”

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper dropped well into “seller’s market” territory at 4.5, while the Eastside as a whole dropped slightly, but remained a “buyer’s market” at 8.4.

Only eight of thirty neighborhoods trended more toward a buyer’s market than a year ago. Four neighborhoods still came in above 10 MOS (two fewer than last month), firmly in buyer’s market territory.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Mercer Island (510) at 21.3, Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 15.2, and Kirkland–Bridle Trails (560) at 13.3. Along with the county-wide stats breaking their 18-month streak of 6+, 520 also broke its 18-month streak of 10+ MOS, falling to 8.8.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 2.8, and North Seattle (710) at 3.1, and Central Seattle SW / Beacon Hill (385) at 3.6.

While we have had regular monthly updates on the county-wide median prices, we haven’t really taken a look at the price breakdowns by neighborhood for a while. Let’s check in on the total drop in median prices by neighborhood.

The chart below shows the total drop in the single-family median price from the peak month to the lowest month to date for each of 29 NWMLS neighborhoods (701—Downtown Seattle excluded, see a map here).

Note that the peak months ranged from January to November 2007. For the price troughs came in February for 11 areas, in January for 9 areas, in October through December in 8 areas, and in June for Area 550 (Redmond, Carnation).

The largest drops so far have been in Mercer Island (510) and Medina/Clyde Hill/West Bellevue (520) tied at 52%, Skyway (360) at 54%, and Vashon Island (800) at 55% off.

The smallest drops so far have been in Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 24%, Black Diamond/Maple Valley (320) at 23%, and East Bellevue (530) at 22% off.

It’s interesting that at 22% off, the county-wide drop from the peak is equal to the smallest drop that has been seen to date in any individual neighborhood. Due to the low volume of closed sales in individual neighborhoods, the median price tends to fluctuate more than it does county-wide. When comparing the individual peaks to February 2009, 8 neighborhoods have dropped 22% or less.

Does a median price drop of 50% off or more in a neighborhood mean that most houses in that neighborhood have had their values drop 50%? Probably not. But it is definitely more likely that houses in such neighborhoods have dropped in price considerably more than those in neighborhoods with only a 20% drop.

September MOS for King County as a whole came in at 6.57 (compared to 7.21 for September 2007 and 6.80 for August), bringing the current run to thirteen months—three times the previous record in the winter of 1994-1995.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of October 2007 through September 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right, so they can be easily compared.

Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0.

Note: Area 100 (Jovita/West Hill Auburn) was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

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Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

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Note: Area 800 (Vashon Island) was over 17 in September, and has been clipped.

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Note: MOS in area 520 (Medina, W. Bellevue) was over 19 in August, and has been clipped.

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Ten of thirty King County areas were in seller’s market territory in September, ranging from 4.35 MOS in 705 (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood) to 5.96 MOS in 300 (Enumclaw). The city of Seattle continued to be the strongest region overall, with four of eight areas coming in below 6 MOS.

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper increased slightly from 5.02 in August to 5.13 in September, down from 5.81 in September 2007. The Eastside as a whole decreased month-to-month to 8.03 MOS, up just barely from September 2007’s 7.97.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. September 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

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Breaking from the recent pattern, seventeen of thirty neighborhoods actually trended more toward a seller’s market than a year ago. Some of these are still in buyer’s market territory, but six areas swung from a buyer’s market in September 2007 to a seller’s market in September 2008. This was likely due largely to the spike in pending sales that we mentioned in the main NWMLS roundup. The most dramatic of these swings was in area 340 (Renton–Benson Hill), which went from 14.3 MOS last year to 5.7 this year.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Vashon Island (800) at 17.86, Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 12.31, and Mercer Island (510) at 11.29. 520 continues its 10+ MOS streak, now at 13 months.

North Seattle neighborhoods continue to hold their title as the strongest markets in which to sell a home. The three best markets for sellers as of last month were the same as the last two months: Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 4.35, North Seattle (710) at 4.48, and West Seattle (140) at 4.61.

August MOS for King County came in at 6.80 (compared to 4.92 for August 2007 and 7.21 for September), bringing the current run to a full year (vs. the previous record of 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995).

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of September 2007 through August 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right, so they can be easily compared.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

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Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

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Note: MOS in area 520 (Medina, W. Bellevue) was over 19 in August, and has been clipped.

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A handful of neighborhoods scattered throughout the county were seller’s markets in August. Even in the recently strong city of Seattle, four of eight areas were buyer’s markets in August.

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper decreased slightly from 5.06 in July to 5.02 in August, up from 3.65 in August 2007. The Eastside as a whole increased to 8.4 MOS, well over August 2007’s 5.2.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. August 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

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Yet again, even the neighborhoods that remain in “seller’s market” territory were trending more toward a buyer’s market than last year.  The single exception is area Dash Point / Federal Way (110), where MOS went from 6.5 last year to 5.6 this year.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 15.76, Enumclaw (300) at 11.31, and Mercer Island (510) at 11.06. 520 has now been over 10 MOS for a full year.  I guess Bill Gates just isn’t buying property like he used to.

North Seattle neighborhoods continue to hold their title as the strongest markets in which to sell a home. The three best markets for sellers as of last month were the same as last month: North Seattle (710) at 3.74, Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 4.09, and West Seattle (140) at 4.57.

Remember: Over 6 MOS is a buyer’s market, which gives buyers more negotiating power, but doesn’t mean homes are priced attractively for buyers or that it’s a good time to buy. Before this year, the longest that King County as a whole has sustained a MOS above 6 was 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995. July MOS for King County came in at 6.62 (compared to 4.06 for July 2007), bringing the current run to eleven months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of August 2007 through July 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right, so they can be easily compared.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

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Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

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Note: Area 520 MOS was over 19 in July, and has been clipped.

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Not a single neighborhood outside the Seattle city limits was a seller’s market in July. The city of Seattle seems to be the last holdout of home sellers in King County, with only two areas in the city coming in as buyer’s markets, 700 (Queen Anne / Magnolia) and 701 (Downtown Condos).

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper increased from 4.6 in June to 5.1 in July, up from 3.0 in July 2007. The Eastside as a whole shot up to just under 8.0 MOS, nearly double July 2007’s 4.2.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. July 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

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Every area was more of a buyer’s market in July than it was at this time last year.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 19.47 (yikes!), Enumclaw (300) at 12.31, and Vashon Island (800) at 12.27. 520 is now just one month away from a one-year streak of 10+ MOS.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 3.91, North Seattle (710) at 4.20, and West Seattle (140) at 4.83. Seeing West Seattle on that list is a particular surprise, given the number of flops we’ve seen in that neighborhood in recent months.

Remember: Over 6 MOS is a buyer’s market, which gives buyers more negotiating power, but doesn’t mean homes are priced attractively for buyers or that it’s a good time to buy. Before this year, the longest that King County as a whole has sustained a MOS above 6 was 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995. June MOS for King County came in at 6.04 (compared to 3.50 for June 2007), bringing the current run to ten months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the eleven-month period of July 2007 through June 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right, so they can be easily compared.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

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Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

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Outside of the Seattle city limits, only areas 720 (Lake Forest Park / Kenmore) and 530 (East Bellevue) were seller’s markets. Within the city of Seattle, only three of eight areas were buyer’s markets: 385 (Beacon Hill), 700 (Queen Anne / Magnolia), and 701 (Downtown Condos). Last month six neighborhoods in King County were below 6.0 MOS. This month there were seven.

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper dropped from 5.2 in May to 4.6 in June, up from 2.6 in June 2007. The Eastside also saw overall MOS drop, but stayed in buyer’s market territory with 6.5 MOS.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. June 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

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Yet again, every area was more of a buyer’s market in June than it was at this time last year, with MOS doubling in many regions.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Enumclaw (300) at 10.79, Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 10.57, and Vashon Island (800) at 8.92. 520 is now in its tenth straight month of 10+ MOS.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 3.17, North Seattle (710) at 3.32, and East Bellevue (530) at 4.31.

Remember: Over 6 MOS is a buyer’s market, which gives buyers more negotiating power, but doesn’t mean homes are priced attractively for buyers or that it’s a good time to buy. Before this year, the longest that King County as a whole has sustained a MOS above 6 was 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995. May MOS for King County came in at 6.97 (up 0.76 points from April), bringing the current run to nine months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the ten-month period of July 2007 through May 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red, so they can be easily compared.

Unfortunately I haven’t yet gotten the fancy color-coded maps ready, but I did make some improvements to the enhanced area map, which can now be found on this page. My goal is to have interactive color-coded maps for next month’s neighborhood update post.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

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Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

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Nothing too surprising in this month’s data. The North Seattle neighborhoods that make up 705 and 710 (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood, Lake City, Northgate, Wedgewood, etc.) continue to show unusual resilience, coming in at 3.81 and 4.00 MOS. Last month eleven neighborhoods were below 6.0 MOS. This month only six hold that title.

Seattle proper’s collective MOS continues to come in below 6.0, but not by much. Last month it crept up to 5.18, still more than twice what it was a year prior at 2.35.

Last month there were six neighborhoods with excessive MOS over 10.0, with three of those coming on the Eastside. As a whole, the Eastside is still a tough place to be selling a home, with a collective MOS of 8.33, and only one area below 6.0 MOS (550: Redmond, Carnation), and all other areas coming in higher than the county-wide average.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. May 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

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Every area was more of a buyer’s market in April than it was at this time last year, with MOS doubling in many regions.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 13.70, Jovita/West Hill Auburn (100) at 11.05, and Vashon Island (800) at 10.82. 520 continues to make records, now in its ninth straight month of 10+ MOS.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 3.81, North Seattle (710) at 4.00, and Redmond / Carnation (550) at 4.71. Ballard: the pink pony’s last stand.

Remember: Over 6 MOS is a buyer’s market, which gives buyers more negotiating power, but doesn’t mean homes are priced attractively for buyers or that it’s a good time to buy. Before this year, the longest that King County as a whole has sustained a MOS above 6 was 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995. April MOS for King County came in at 6.21 (up slightly from March), bringing the current run to eight months. In seven of the last eight years, March has been the low point for MOS (2003 was the exception, when MOS bottomed in July). It seems unlikely that the county-wide MOS will drop back below six this year.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the nine-month period of July 2007 through March 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red, so they can be easily compared.

For a description of which neighborhoods each area encompasses, as well as a map of the areas and a link to the source data, visit this page.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

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Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

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The best markets for sellers are yet again found in North Seattle areas 705 and 710 (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood, Lake City, Northgate, Wedgewood, etc.), with 3.68 and 3.39 MOS respectively. No other areas were below 4 MOS, but 9 more areas fell between 4 and 6 MOS (weak sellers markets). The Seattle city limits as a whole continue to be a bad place to be buying a home, with a collective MOS of just 4.84. Seattle continues to trend toward a buyer’s market though, with MOS up from 4.54 last month, and this April having over twice as many months of supply as last April, which had just 2.18 MOS.

I discovered an error in my spreadsheet for the downtown condo market, where I had been recording only new listings instead of total listings, which as you can see in the Seattle graph, makes quite a difference. The downtown condo market is clearly a buyer’s market at 6.79 MOS, but it’s down considerably from the peak in December, when there was over ten months of supply.

A few more south King County neighborhoods slipped back into seller’s market territory, but seven of eleven still came in with MOS higher than the county aggregate. Despite/due to having some of the region’s highest prices, the Eastside is still a lousy place to be trying to sell a home right now, with a collective MOS of 7.78 (up from 7.38 in March), and 7 of 8 areas coming in with MOS above the county as a whole. Area 530 (East Bellevue, West Redmond) is the only Eastside holdout for sellers, with an MOS of 5.25 (up from 4.59 in March).

All three of the best markets for buyers were on the Eastside: Area 500 (East Side–South of I-90), 520 (Medina, Clyde Hill, W. Bellevue), and 560 (Kirkland–Bridle Trails). With 11.07 MOS, Area 520 (Medina, Clyde Hill, W. Bellevue) continues to hold the dubious distinction of having the longest-running 10+ MOS streak, now in its eighth month.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to one year ago’s value. April 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

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Whoa now, what’s going on in area 360? Last year it had 8.0 MOS, and this year it’s dropped to 5.5? Quite odd, but when there are never more than a few dozen sales each month, it’s not too surprising to see strange swings like that. This is why I generally prefer to look at county-wide data to assess overall trends. More data means its less suceptible to bizarre bounces. Other than area 360, every other area was more of a buyer’s market in April than it was at this time last year.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were North Seattle (710) at 3.39, Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 3.68, and Renton Highlands/Kennydale (350) at 4.35. 11 out of 30 areas county-wide came in below 6 MOS. The three best markets for buyers were Kirkland–Bridle Trails (560) at 11.81, Medina/Clyde Hill/W. Bellevue (520) at 11.07, and the East Side South of I-90 (500) at 9.40.

Remember our metric: less than 6 MOS is a sellers market and above 6 is a buyer’s market, meaning that buyers have better negotiating power, not that homes are necessarily priced attractively for buyers. Before this year, the longest that King County as a whole has sustained a MOS above 6 was 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995. March MOS for King County came in at 6.19 (slightly higher than February), bringing the current run to seven months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the nine-month period of July 2007 through March 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red, so they can be easily compared.

For a description of which neighborhoods each area encompasses, as well as a map of the areas and a link to the source data, visit this page.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

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Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

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The best markets for sellers continue to be North Seattle areas 705 and 710 (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood, Lake City, Northgate, Wedgewood, etc.), with 3.38 and 3.86 MOS respectively. One other area dropped slighly below 4 MOS, area 720 (Lake Forest Park, Kenmore) with 3.95 MOS. The Seattle city limits as a whole are definitely still the worst place for buyers, with a collective MOS of just 4.52. However, even Seattle is trending strongly toward a buyer’s market, as this March saw over twice as many months of supply as last March, which had just 1.85 MOS.

The condo supply and demand situation downtown took a sudden turn in favor of buyers, with MOS shooting from 2.21 in February to 6.02 in March. Again though, I would take the condo statistics with a grain of salt, considering how many new construction condos never make it onto the MLS.

Ten of eleven neighborhoods in south King County remain firmly in buyer’s market territory, with MOS also coming in higher than the county aggregate. The Eastside still doesn’t look too good for sellers, with a collective MOS of 7.38, and 6 of 8 areas coming in with MOS above the county as a whole.

Mercer Island took a sudden turn, as new listings flatlined and a few dozen sales cleared out a bit of the standing inventory, pushing MOS way down from last month’s staggering 13.18 all the way into seller’s market territory at 5.10. Vashon dropped as well, but remained well into buyer’s market territory at 9.44 MOS. Bill Gates’ stomping grounds in Area 520 (Medina, Clyde Hill, W. Bellevue) continues to be one of the toughest places to sell, with 13.76 MOS, it earns the distinction of being the only area to exceed 10 MOS for seven months now.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to one year ago’s value. March 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

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There is still not a single area that isn’t more of a buyer’s market than this time last year. Again, only one area had less than double last year’s MOS, this time it was area 720 (Lake Forest Park, Kenmore), which increased from 2.21 to 3.95.

The three strongest areas as of last month were Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 3.38, North Seattle (710) at 3.86, and Lake Forest Park/Kenmore (720) at 3.95. Slightly fewer areas were in seller’s market territory last month, just 10 out of 30 areas county-wide came in below 6 MOS. The three weakest areas were Enumclaw (300) at 14.22, Medina/Clyde Hill/W. Bellevue (520) at 13.76, and Jovita/West Hill Auburn (100) at 9.65.

Keep in mind that we are considering below 6 MOS to be a sellers market and above 6 as a buyer’s market. Based on the sketchy pre-2000 data we have available, the longest that King County as a whole has sustained a MOS above 6 was 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995. With February’s 6.14 MOS, the current run is up to six months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for July 2007 through February 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red, so they can be easily compared.

For a description of which neighborhoods each area encompasses, as well as a map of the areas and a link to the source data, visit this page.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

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Note: Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) has virtually zero SFH activity, so on a suggestion from a reader, I’m using condo data for this area.

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Just like last month, the north Seattle neighborhoods in areas 705 and 710 (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood, Lake City, Northgate, Wedgewood, etc.) stick out as being considerably less friendly toward buyers than the county as a whole or any other individual area. With MOS of 4.05 in 705 and a dismal 2.81 in 710, now is still a good time to be selling in north Seattle. The condo situation downtown is also pretty lousy for buyers, with a MOS of 2.21, but I would take the condo statistics with a grain of salt, considering how many new construction condos never make it onto the MLS.

Only one neighborhood in Seattle proper is now still a buyer’s market, area 380, which is described by the NWMLS as “Central Seattle SE, Leshi, Mt Baker, Seward Park.” Most neighborhoods in south King County are still firmly in buyer’s market territory, MOS higher than the county aggregate in 9 of 11 areas. The Eastside continues to be harsh on sellers, with only one area coming in with a MOS slightly lower than the county as a whole, area 540 (east of Lake Sammamish) at 6.07 MOS.

Yesterday I pointed out that the Eastside areas 510, 520, and 530 all had some fairly extreme spikes in inventory. With 13.18 and 10.95 MOS, areas 510 and 520 are both firmly in buyer’s market territory, while area 530 is much less severe, but still more of a buyer’s market than the county as a whole at 6.41 MOS.

King County’s islands are the two worst places to be selling a home right now, with Vashon (800) coming in at 14.40 MOS and Mercer (510) close behind at 13.18.

Here’s one more graph for you to chew on. In this one, you can directly compare each area’s MOS to one year ago’s value. February 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

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There is not a single area that isn’t trending toward a buyer’s market compared to last year. In SFH, only one area had less than double last year’s MOS, area 710 (NE Seattle), which increased 53% from 1.84 to 2.81.

The three strongest areas as of last month were North Seattle (710) at 2.81, Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 4.05, and Queen Anne / Magnolia (700) at 4.28 (as well as Downtown condos (701) at 2.21). A few more areas dipped back into seller’s market territory last month, for a total of 11 out of 30 areas county-wide coming in below 6 MOS. The three weakest areas were Bellevue west of I-405 (520) at 10.95, Mercer Island (510) at 13.18, and Vashon Island (800) at 14.40.

The data that makes up these charts is publicly available from the NWMLS, and can be found in the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs. Keep in mind that what’s being plotted here is total percent growth since January 2007. If it would be more helpful to present the data in a different way, I’m open to suggestions. Each graph still has the same scale on the vertical axis, for easy comparison. The King County aggregate figure is plotted in red with circles marking the data points.

For a description of which neighborhoods each area encompasses, as well as a map of the areas and a link to the source data, visit this page.

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Note: Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) started the year with zero listings, then went up to 1 in June and 2 in January ‘08, which would techincally have been an infinite percentage increase. On this chart it is displayed as a flat line.

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The most extreme action last month seemed to be over on the Eastside, where the inventory in areas 510, 520, and 530 (Mercer Island, Bellevue, and Redmond) is just exploding. Area 520 (West Bellevue) earned the distinction of having already exceeded 2007’s peak inventory as of February. Over in Seattle, area 390 (Capitol Hill) almost joined that club as well, exactly matching last year’s October peak inventory of 305.

The areas with the least inventory growth between January and February were areas 300 (Enumclaw), 360 (Skyway), and 385 (Beacon Hill), which all actually had between 1% and 4% less inventory at the end of February than a month prior.

The areas with the most inventory growth last month were areas 600 (Juanita / Woodinville / Duvall – +16.4% MOM), 700 (Queen Anne / Magnolia – +16.7% MOM), and 510 (Mercer Island) with an incredible 22% spike in inventory in just one month.

To calculate months of supply for any area, you simply divide the total number of homes for sale by the number of pending sales. Generally 6 months of supply is considered a “balanced market,” while below 6 is a sellers market and above is a buyer’s market. Historically, the highest MOS for the King County area (post-1993, pre-2007) was 6.7-6.9 in the winter of 1994-1995 (based on the best available data, which is sketchy pre-2000). The current county-wide MOS is 7.54.

For the graphs below, I’ve again taken the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for January 2007 through January 2008, this time plotting the monthly value of MOS for each area. I’ve broken the data into the same five graphs as the last neighborhood breakdown post. This time I’ve plotted them on a bar graph, centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market. Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red, so they can be easily compared.

For a description of which neighborhoods each area encompasses, as well as a map of the areas and a link to the source data, visit this page.

Note: With only 8 sales in January, Area 100 actually shot all the way up to over 21 MOS, which is above the limit of the axis. In order to keep all five charts at the same scale and still have the other charts be at a reasonable height, I chose to clip the vertical at 16.

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Note: Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) doesn’t have a bar most months because there was only one pending sale all year, in October, when there was also one listing, thus resulting in a MOS of 1.

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Most neighborhoods followed right along with the King County aggregate, flipping from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market in September. However, there are a few notable exceptions. These include Enumclaw (Area 300), which jumped firmly into buyer’s market territory two months early with a MOS over 8. Also worth mentioning is Vashon Island (Area 800), which sported an MOS over 12 in December and January and Bellevue West of I-405 (Area 520), which has remained firmly at or above 10 MOS since September.

Clearly the strongest neighborhoods are in Seattle proper, with North Seattle neighborhoods (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood, Lake City, Northgate, Wedgewood, etc. – Area’s 705 and 710) showing the most resilience, still down in seller’s market territory with MOS’ in the 4-6 range. I would also like to point out that despite the presence of the Microsoft, three of the four Eastside neighborhoods nearest Redmond (Areas 520, 550 and 560) are all trending more toward a buyer’s market than the county as a whole, sporting January MOS of 14, 8, and 10, respectively. In fact, no Eastside neighborhoods remain seller’s markets, and the only ones with January MOS below the county-wide aggregate of 7.54 were East Bellevue (530) at 6.31, East of Lake Sammamish (540) at 7.48, and Juanita/Woodinville/Duvall (600) at 7.12.

The three strongest areas as of last month were Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 3.88, North Seattle (710) at 4.14, and West Seattle (140) at 5.08. Only two other areas remain seller’s markets: Queene Anne/Magnolia (700) and Richmond Beach/Shoreline (715). The three weakest areas were Eastside South of I-90 (500, which includes Issaquah) at 13.74, Bellevue west of I-405 (520) at 14.14, and Jovita/West Hill Auburn (100) at a staggering 21.38.

Does a MOS in the “buyer’s market” range indicate that now is a good time to buy in a given neighborhood? Not necessarily, and certainly not when it has only been in that range for a few months. If MOS stats stay consistently above six for a year or more, I believe we will really start to see some earnest price drops. Housing markets move very slowly. Only after the supply and demand situation has had a large amount of time to work itself out will you start to see a real effect on prices. “Buyer’s market” status just means that people selling their homes are facing a lot of competition for fewer buyers. It does not mean that now is a good time to rush out and buy, in my opinion.

What I’ve done below is to take the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for January 2007 through January 2008, and plot the total percent growth. I’ve broken the data into five separate graphs (the same groups the NWMLS uses in the breakout pdfs), in order to make it more digestable, but each graph still has the same scale on the vertical axis, so they can be easily compared. Additionally, each graph has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red with circles marking the data points.

For a description of which neighborhoods each area encompasses, as well as a map of the areas and a link to the source data, visit this page.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Note: Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) started the year with zero listings, then went up to 1 in June and 2 in January ‘08, which would techincally have been an infinite percentage increase. On this chart it is displayed as a flat line.

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So what stands out in all this data?

First off, except for areas 110, 120, and 340 (Federal Way, Des Moines, and S. Renton), South King County doesn’t really stick out as much worse off than the county as a whole. In fact, in areas 300 and 350 (Enumclaw and N. Renton), inventory grew considerably slower than most of the county.

Most areas in Seattle proper trended fairly close to the county total, with area 390 (Capitol Hill) seeing the slowest growth. The Eastside was even more average, with the exceptions of 560 (Kirkland) on the low end and 530 (E. Bellevue) skyrocketing starting in August. North King and Vashon came in above average, with inventory on Vashon climbing the most of any area in the county.

Inventory-wise, the strongest areas (least inventory growth) as of last month were 300 (Enumclaw – 18% YOY), 320 (Maple Valley – 31% YOY), and 350 (Renton Highlands – 32% YOY). The weakest areas (most inventory growth) were 800 (Vashon – 97% YOY), 340 (S. Renton – 107% YOY), and 530 (E. Bellevue – 112%).

Make of this data what you will.