It’s been a few months since we took a look at the in-county breakdown data from the NWMLS to see how the sales mix shifted around the county. I like to keep an eye on this not only to see how individual neighborhoods are doing but also to see how the sales mix shift affects the overall county-wide median price.

As of March, prices are up from a year ago in the low-end regions, flat in the mid-range regions, and down in the high-end regions. Meanwhile, the share of sales is tilting toward the low-end regions.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of March data:

• low end: $379,000-$593,750
• mid range: $615,000-$1,090,000
• high end: $814,037-$2,586,183

First let’s look at the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

The last few years have each followed a similar pattern: while sales in the mid-range regions maintain a fairly steady share of sales in the county each month, sales in the cheaper parts of the county (South King) surge in the winter and dip in the summer, with sales in the most expensive parts (Eastside) doing the opposite. Except for a big spike in Seattle in February, so far we’re seeing the same pattern this year.

The raw number of sales in all three tiers increased between February and March. Month-over-month sales were up 35 percent in the low tier, up six percent in the middle tier, and up 42 percent in the high tier.

Meanwhile, year-over-year sales were down in all three tiers. Compared to a year ago, sales decreased five percent in the low tier, fell seven percent in the middle tier, and dropped four percent in the high tier.

As of March 2019, 37.9 percent of sales were in the low end regions (basically flat from 37.8 percent a year ago), 32.0 percent in the mid range (down slightly from 32.6 percent a year ago), and 30.1 percent in the high end (up from 29.6 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

During the housing bubble that burst in 2008, South King consistently had the largest share of sales. We’ve seen the same thing over the last few years as prices have once again grown to astronomical levels. In the lead-up to the big 2008 bust, sales in South King fell as sales in Seattle gained ground. February’s spike in Seattle’s sales share could be a portent of a similar pattern, or it could just be a blip. We’ll see over the next few months.

Finally, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

All three tiers saw month-over-month gains in their respective median-median price, but only the low tier is currently at an all-time record high. Month-over-month, the median price in the low tier rose three percent, the middle tier increased eight percent, and the high tier gained nine percent.

Eighteen of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in March had a higher median price than a year ago, while 23 had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 5.2 percent, middle tier: up 0.1 percent, high tier: down 4.7 percent.

The post Cheapest parts of King County still make up the largest share of sales, even as prices there grow the most appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It’s been six months since we took a look at the in-county breakdown data from the NWMLS to see how the sales mix shifted around the county. I like to keep an eye on this not only to see how individual neighborhoods are doing but also to see how the sales mix shift affects the overall county-wide median price.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of August data:

• low end: $380,000-$588,500
• mid range: $599,000-$1,060,000
• high end: $786,500-$2,557,500

First let’s look at the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

It’s interesting that in each of the last four years the share of sales in the South King regions has peaked in the first quarter and then fallen off sharply. However, this year unlike recent years the share of sales in the cheaper parts of the county has remained a few points higher than the other two tiers throughout the summer. The last couple months has even seen the share of sales in the cheap parts of the county gaining ground, which is probably a big part of why the county-wide median price has been falling.

The number of sales in all three tiers has been decreasing month-over-month for the past two months. Month-over-month sales were down five percent in the low tier, down ten percent in the middle tier, and down eight percent in the high tier.

Meanwhile, year-over-year sales are falling considerably in the middle and high tiers and are down moderately in the low tier. Compared to a year ago, sales decreased five percent in the low tier, fell nineteen percent in the middle tier, and dropped twenty percent in the high tier.

As of August 2018, 37.1 percent of sales were in the low end regions (up from 33.2 percent a year ago), 32.0 percent in the mid range (down from 33.9 percent a year ago), and 30.8 percent in the high end (down from 32.9 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

We’re still seeing the same pattern this year that we saw during the bubble years of 2004-2006—a much larger percent of sales taking place in the low tier regions and a lower sales share for the high tier Eastside regions.

Finally, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median prices in the high and middle tiers have both fallen off over the last few months, but the low tier has held fairly steady. Month-over-month, the median price in the low tier fell two percent, the middle tier decreased nine percent, and the high tier lost three percent.

Twenty-five of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in August had a higher median price than a year ago, while just nine had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 10.9 percent, middle tier: up 0.3 percent, high tier: up 7.6 percent.

The post Expensive parts of King County are seeing bigger dips in sales and prices appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It’s been nearly a year since we took a look at the in-county breakdown data from the NWMLS to see how the sales mix shifted around the county. I like to keep an eye on this not only to see how individual neighborhoods are doing but also to see how the sales mix shift affects the overall county-wide median price.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of February data:

• low end: $360,000-$500,000
• mid range: $480,000-$961,200
• high end: $820,000-$2,070,000

First let’s look at the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

The most interesting thing in this data is that in February the share of sales in the South King regions hit an all-time high at 41.6 percent, just edging out the previous high of 41.4 percent set in November 2007 (just four months after prices peaked). Despite this continued shift in sales toward the lower-priced regions, the county-wide median price continues to push upward.

The raw number of sales in all three tiers increased between January and February. Month-over-month sales were up eighteen percent in the low tier, up nine percent in the middle tier, and up five percent in the high tier.

Meanwhile, year-over-year sales were up in the low and high tiers, but down slightly in the middle tier. Compared to a year ago, sales increased five percent in the low tier, fell one percent in the middle tier, and rose seven percent in the high tier.

As of February 2018, 41.6 percent of sales were in the low end regions (up from 40.9 percent a year ago), 32.1 percent in the mid range (down from 33.5 percent a year ago), and 26.4 percent in the high end (up from 25.5 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

The thing that always stands out to me about this chart is how the bubble years of 2004-2006 stick out with a much larger percent of sales taking place in the low tier regions, and a steady decrease in the sales share for the high tier Eastside regions. The last year has been a lot more variable, but the same trend seems to be shaping up again.

Finally, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The low and mid tiers both saw month-over-month gains in their respective median-median price, each setting a new all-time record high, while the high tier regions fell slightly from the all-time high set in January. Month-over-month, the median price in the low tier rose four percent, the middle tier increased four percent, and the high tier lost one percent.

Twenty-seven of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in February had a higher median price than a year ago, while nineteen had a month-over-month increase in the median price. The two areas that had a lower median prices than a year ago were Area 350—Renton–Highlands & Kennydale and Area 520—Bellevue–West of 405.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 19.1 percent, middle tier: up 20.5 percent, high tier: up 14.5 percent.

The post Share of sales in cheap parts of King County hit all-time high as prices keep climbing appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It’s been a few months since we took a look at the in-county breakdown data from the NWMLS to see how the sales mix shifted around the county. I like to keep an eye on this not only to see how individual neighborhoods are doing but also to see how the sales mix shift affects the overall county-wide median price.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of April data:

• low end: $330,000-$520,000
• mid range: $559,950-$964,250
• high end: $699,475-$2,203,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

All three tiers saw large month-over-month gains in their respective median-median price, and they all three set a new all-time record high. Month-over-month, the median price in the low tier rose 6.7 percent, the middle tier increased 6.4 percent, and the high tier gained 3.6 percent.

Twenty-eight of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in April had a higher median price than a year ago, while fifteen had a month-over-month increase in the median price. The only area that had a lower median price than a year ago was Area 390, Capitol Hill/Madison Park.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 16.9 percent, middle tier: up 23.4 percent, high tier: up 19.7 percent.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

Sales in the low and middle tiers fell between March and April, but the high tier saw a slight gain. Month-over-month sales were down 8.2 percent in the low tier, down 1.9 percent in the middle tier, and up 5.8 percent in the high tier.

Meanwhile, year-over-year sales fell in all three tiers. Compared to a year ago, sales decreased 2.0 percent in the low tier, fell 4.8 percent in the middle tier, and dropped 10.7 percent in the high tier.

After a few months of the low tier dominating the sales mix and the high tier making up a near record-low portion of sales, the mix has started to shift back toward a more normal mix, with cheap sales falling off and expensive sales gaining back ground. This kind of move will make the overall county-wide median increase even if all the regions weren’t seeing price gains individually.

As of April 2017, 35.8 percent of sales were in the low end regions (up from 34.5 percent a year ago), 35.4 percent in the mid range (up from 35.1 percent a year ago), and 28.8 percent in the high end (down from 30.4 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

It’s interesting that despite the shift in the sales mix away from the cheap regions and toward the expensive regions, the county-wide median price increased less year-over-year than all three of the price tier aggregate regions. If the sales mix continues moving away from the cheap regions, I expect the next few months to see even bigger gains in the county-wide median price.

The post Sales Fall Off In Cheap King County Neighborhoods appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It’s been quite a while since we took a look at the in-county breakdown data from the NWMLS to see how the sales mix shifted around the county.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of January data:

• low end: $310,000-$429,500
• mid range: $469,250-$800,000
• high end: $649,995-$1,508,750

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

Only the low tier saw a month-over-month gain in its respective median-median price, while the middle and high tiers both fell slightly. All three tiers are currently at a level lower than their respective all-time highs. Month-over-month, the median price in the low tier rose 0.3 percent, the middle tier decreased 3.3 percent, and the high tier lost 1.2 percent.

Twenty-five of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in January had a higher median price than a year ago, while Fifteen had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 19.2 percent, middle tier: up less than 0.1 percent, high tier: up 13.8 percent.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

Sales in all three tiers fell between December and January, with the middle and high tiers seeing the biggest dips. Month-over-month sales were down 21.8 percent in the low tier, down 30.1 percent in the middle tier, and down 29.0 percent in the high tier.

Meanwhile, year-over-year sales were up considerably in all three tiers. Compared to a year ago, sales increased 25.1 percent in the low tier, rose 25.8 percent in the middle tier, and gained 8.7 percent in the high tier.

The interesting thing is the strong shift in the sales mix in recent mix away from the high tier and into the low tier.

As of January 2017, 41.3 percent of sales were in the low end regions (up from 39.7 percent a year ago), 31.8 percent in the mid range (up from 30.4 percent a year ago), and 26.9 percent in the high end (down from 29.8 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

With sales shifting strongly into the lower-priced regions, it’s no surprise that the county-wide median price fell slightly. The last time this large a share of sales were in the low-tier parts of the county was in November 2007, just a few months after home prices peaked.

The post More Homes Sold In Cheaper South King Neighborhoods appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It’s time for us to take a look at this month’s numbers to see how the sales mix shifted around the county in August.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of August data:

• low end: $291,000-$397,250
• mid range: $405,000-$762,500
• high end: $532,200-$1,725,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

Only the middle tier actually saw a month-over-month gain in its respective median-median price, while the low and high tiers both fell slightly. At $499,500 in August, the middle tier is still slightly shy of its all-time high of $502,000 set in April. Month-over-month, the median price in the low tier fell 1.9 percent, the middle tier increased 7.4 percent, and the high tier lost 6.2 percent.

Twenty-seven of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in August had a higher median price than a year ago, while sixteen had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 18.2 percent, middle tier: up 25.2 percent, high tier: flat.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

Sales in all three tiers fell between July and August, with the low and middle tiers seeing the biggest dip. The sales mix shifted slightly toward the high tier since those regions didn’t see sales fall quite as much. Month-over-month sales were down 12.5 percent in the low tier, down 13.8 percent in the middle tier, and down 7.2 percent in the high tier.

Year-over-year sales increased in all three tiers. Compared to a year ago, sales increased 14.7 percent in the low tier, rose 4.0 percent in the middle tier, and gained 5.6 percent in the high tier.

As of August 2015, 34.3 percent of sales were in the low end regions (up from 32.3 percent a year ago), 32.1 percent in the mid range (down from 33.3 percent a year ago), and 33.6 percent in the high end (down from 34.4 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

It’s interesting that the median price in the high tier regions was flat, despite double-digit gains in both of the other tiers. Sales aren’t really slowing much yet, what we’re seeing right now seems to be mostly a seasonal slowdown. This fall and winter we’ll be watching the market closely to see if any significant change is likely next year.

The post Most Neighborhoods See End of Summer Sales Slowdown appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Lennox Scott, CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, said the lower price in July also could be due to the mix of homes that sold.

Of course, I pointed out that the geographic mix was likely the reason the county-wide median moved up so much between May and June, while Lennox only feels the need to mention the mix when the median moves down, but whatever. Let’s have a look at this month’s numbers to see how the mix shifted again in July.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of May data:

• low end: $280,000-$366,325
• mid range: $372,000-$810,000
• high end: $536,500-$1,537,500

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The low and high tiers saw month-over-month gains in their respective median-median price, while the middle tier fell slightly. The high tier shot up over $30,000 in July to a new all-time high of $723,988. The low tier hit its highest point in 84 months, but still fell short of its August 2007 high. Month-over-month, the median price in the low tier rose 1.9 percent, the middle tier decreased 6.5 percent, and the high tier gained 4.5 percent.

Twenty-five of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in July had a higher median price than a year ago, while eleven had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 3.6 percent, middle tier: up 6.3 percent, high tier: up 9.2 percent.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

Sales in the low tier neighborhoods rose again between June and July, but sales in the middle and high tier neighborhoods fell. The result was a shift back away from expensive Eastside and Seattle sales toward the cheaper South King County region. Month-over-month sales were up 8.0 percent in the low tier, down 3.0 percent in the middle tier, and down 5.0 percent in the high tier.

Year-over-year sales were mixed across the three tiers. Compared to a year ago, sales increased 20.2 percent in the low tier, rose 9.6 percent in the middle tier, and fell 2.1 percent in the high tier.

As of July 2015, 34.8 percent of sales were in the low end regions (up from 31.5 percent a year ago), 33.0 percent in the mid range (up just slightly from 32.8 percent a year ago), and 32.1 percent in the high end (down from 35.7 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

Price-wise, things seem to have cooled down slightly in July, with fewer than half of the NWMLS-defined neighborhoods seeing a month-over-month increase in their respective median price. Sales in the more expensive regions also slowed down, but the increase in cheap regions seems to indicate that demand isn’t starting to dry up just yet. It will be interesting to see if any of these softening signs continue in the next few months.

The post Eastside Median Price Surges to New High as Sales Shift to Cheap South King County Neighborhoods appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of May data:

• low end: $290,500-$409,200
• mid range: $415,000-$850,000
• high end: $528,444-$1,811,250

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

All three tiers saw month-over-month gains in their respective median-median price, but none are quite at record levels. The middle tier hit an all-time high in April, and the high tier hit its all-time high in December. The low tier still hasn’t beat its 2007 high. Month-over-month, the median price in the low tier rose 6.8 percent, the middle tier increased 5.2 percent, and the high tier gained 0.8 percent.

Twenty-eight of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in June had a higher median price than a year ago, while sixteen had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 10.5 percent, middle tier: up 12.0 percent, high tier: up 5.4 percent.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

Sales in all three regions rose again between May and June, while month-to-month the mix shifted slightly away from the South King low tier and into the Eastside high tier region. Month-over-month sales were up 2.1 percent in the low tier, up 3.8 percent in the middle tier, and up 20.2 percent in the high tier.

Year-over-year sales increased in all three tiers as well. Compared to a year ago, sales increased 17.3 percent in the low tier, rose 11.8 percent in the middle tier, and increased 23.4 percent in the high tier.

As of June 2015, 32.2 percent of sales were in the low end regions (flat from 32.2 percent a year ago), 34.0 percent in the mid range (up just slightly from 35.7 percent a year ago), and 33.8 percent in the high end (up from 32.1 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

Prices are rising in most parts of the Seattle area, but the sales mix shifted pretty strongly toward the more expensive parts of the county in June. This shift is likely a big part of why the county-wide median price shot up from $480,000 in May to $500,000 in June.

The post Sales Mix Shifted Into Expensive Eastside Homes in June appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of May data:

• low end: $260,000-$418,900
• mid range: $375,000-$802,000
• high end: $539,000-$1,914,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median-median in the Eastside regions hit an all-time high of $703,000 back in December, but has since retreated to $687,500. Similarly, the mid-tier regions had hit an all-time high of $502,000 in April, but fell back to $472,981 in May. Month-over-month, the median price in the low tier fell 4.2 percent, the middle tier decreased 5.8 percent, and the high tier gained 1.4 percent.

Twenty-five of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in May had a higher median price than a year ago, while fourteen had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 8.9 percent, middle tier: up 17.8 percent, high tier: up 11.7 percent.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

Sales in all three regions spiked up dramatically between April and May, and month-to-month the mix shifted slightly away from the Eastside high tier and into the South King and Seattle regions. Month-over-month sales were up 15.7 percent in the low tier, up 16.1 percent in the middle tier, and up 10.3 percent in the high tier.

Year-over-year sales increased in all three tiers as well. Compared to a year ago, sales increased 23.1 percent in the low tier, rose 16.2 percent in the middle tier, and increased 6.9 percent in the high tier.

As of May 2015, 34.1 percent of sales were in the low end regions (up from 32.0 percent a year ago), 35.5 percent in the mid range (compared to 35.2 percent a year ago), and 30.4 percent in the high end (down from 32.8 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

Between late last year and March of this year the share of homes sold in the cheap parts of King County shot up dramatically to nearly 40 percent—a level comparable what we saw during the last housing bubble. However, in April and May the share of sales in South King County fell back down to below the mid-tier regions. This sharp decrease in sales in the cheap regions in the past two months is most likely a big part of why the county-wide median price shot up from $440,000 in March to $480,000 in April and May.

The post Cheap South King County Sales Slipping appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of December data:

• low end: $252,500-$377,500
• mid range: $383,975-$719,000
• high end: $480,000-$1,960,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median-median in the Eastside regions retreated from the all-time high set in December, falling from $703,200 to $660,600 in January. The median in the low and mid regions both increased slightly. Month-over-month, the median price in the low tier rose 5.3 percent, the middle tier increased 2.1 percent, and the high tier lost 6.1 percent.

Twenty-five of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in January had a higher median price than a year ago, while sixteen had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 15.4 percent, middle tier: up 21.6 percent, high tier: up 8,2 percent.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

Sales in all three regions fell dramatically between December and January, and the mix changed slightly away from the Seattle middle tier and into the South King low tier. Month-over-month sales were down 28.6 percent in the low tier, down 35.7 percent in the middle tier, and down 32.9 percent in the high tier.

Year-over-year sales increased in the low and high tiers, but fell in the middle tier. Compared to a year ago, sales increased 2.8 percent in the low tier, fell 2.4 percent in the middle tier, and increased 7.4 percent in the high tier.

As of January 2015, 35.7 percent of sales were in the low end regions (up slightly from 35.5 percent a year ago), 33.1 percent in the mid range (down from 34.7 percent a year ago), and 31.3 percent in the high end (up from 29.8 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

No big changes from the sellers’ market, but the year-over-year sales changes did weaken in January. It will be interesting to see if sales come roaring back this month.

The post Cheap South King Sales Edge Up, Seattle Sales Slip appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of December data:

• low end: $246,000-$429,950
• mid range: $350,000-$664,975
• high end: $473,000-$1,413,593

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median-median in the Eastside regions hit a new all-time high for the second month in a row, reaching $703,200 in December.

Month-over-month, all three tiers rose between November and December. The low tier rose 2.9 percent in the month, the middle tier increased 12.0 percent, and the high tier gained 2.3 percent.

Twenty-four of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in December had a higher median price than a year ago, while sixteen had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: down 0.2 percent, middle tier: up 22.6 percent, high tier: up 26.0 percent.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

Sales in all three regions rose between November and December as the mix changed slightly away from the middle tier and into the low and high tiers.

Year-over-year sales also increased in all three tiers. Compared to a year ago, sales increased 14.9 percent in the low tier, rose 16.8 percent in the middle tier, and edged up just 0.3 percent in the high tier.

As of December 2014, 33.8 percent of sales were in the low end regions (up from 32.4 percent a year ago), 34.8 percent in the mid range (up from 32.9 percent a year ago), and 31.5 percent in the high end (down from 34.7 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

Still looks like a pretty strong sellers market just about anywhere you look in King County.

The post Eastside Prices Hit Another All-Time High in December appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of September data:

• low end: $247,500-$428,450
• mid range: $363,500-$725,975
• high end: $467,000-$1,419,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

It’s hard to tell from that chart, but the median-median in the Eastside regions hit a new all-time high of $687,500 in November. The previous high was $687,225 set in April of 2007. Eastside prices bottomed out in February 2012.

Month-over-month, only the low tier saw the median price fall between October and November. The low tier fell 2.3 percent in the month, the middle tier increased 3.3 percent, and the high tier gained 6.7 percent.

Twenty-three of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in November had a higher median price than a year ago, while eighteen had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 4.2 percent, middle tier: up 16.7 percent, high tier: up 13.3 percent.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

Sales in all three regions fell between October and November, but the mix changed slightly as the expensive Eastside continued to make up less of the total volume.

Year-over-year sales were mixed across the three tiers. Compared to a year ago, sales increased 14.6 percent in the low tier, rose 6.8 percent in the middle tier, and dropped 4.4 percent in the high tier. This is the fourth month in a row of declining sales volumes in the Eastside. It’s possible that is related to the record high home prices I mentioned above.

As of November 2014, 33.1 percent of sales were in the low end regions (up from 30.4 percent a year ago), 35.9 percent in the mid range (up slightly from 35.4 percent a year ago), and 31.0 percent in the high end (down from 34.2 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

It’s more historically common for the Eastside to make up the smallest share of sales as it does now, but all three tiers are relatively even compared to some of the differences we’ve seen in the past. It’s hard to get a strong read on any big regional shifts with the middling data we’ve seen the last few months.

The post Eastside Median Home Price Hits New All-Time High appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of September data:

• low end: $240,000-$395,000
• mid range: $350,000-$724,500
• high end: $509,000-$1,706,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in the middle and high tiers fell between September and October, but the low tier rose slightly. The low tier rose 2.4 percent in the month, the middle tier decreased 8.2 percent, and the high tier lost 3.7 percent.

Area 520, which includes Bellevue west of I-405, Medina, and Hunts Point, hit an all-time high median price of $1,706,000 on 39 sales—the sales highest volume for that region in over a year.

Twenty-two of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in October had a higher median price than a year ago, while just twelve had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 7.6 percent, middle tier: 0.0 percent change, high tier: up 5.5 percent.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

The share of sales in the low tier regions of South King County gained ground in October. Seattle gained slightly as well, while Eastside sales dipped. This shift in the geographic sales mix away from the expensive regions and toward the cheaper regions explains much of the month-over-month dip in the county-wide median price.

Year-over-year sales were mixed across the three tiers. Compared to a year ago, sales increased 9.4 percent in the low tier, rose 1.5 percent in the middle tier, and dropped 3.3 percent in the high tier.

As of October 2014, 32.7 percent of sales were in the low end regions (up from 30.5 percent a year ago), 35.8 percent in the mid range (down from 36.1 percent a year ago), and 31.5 percent in the high end (down from 33.4 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

Interesting to see a dip in overall sales on the Eastside as sales in Seattle and South King jumped up quite a bit from September. Most likely all three tiers will see a dip in sales next month.

The post Seattle & South King Sales Up as Eastside Sales Slip appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It’s time once again to take an updated look at how King County’s sales are shifting between the different regions around the county, since geographic shifts can and do affect the median price.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of September data:

• low end: $250,000-$416,500
• mid range: $338,500-$731,000
• high end: $495,000-$1,547,500

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in the low and middle tiers rose between August and September, but the high tier slipped. The low tier rose 1.3 percent in the month, the middle tier increased 9.3 percent, and the high tier lost 1.4 percent.

Twenty-three of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in September had a higher median price than a year ago, while just sixteen had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 2.7 percent, middle tier: up 7.0 percent, high tier: up 12.0 percent.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

The share of sales in the middle and high tiers of Seattle and the Eastside both gained ground in September, while South King County sales dipped. Yet again, this shift in the geographic sales mix explains the dramatic month-over-month change in the county-wide median price.

Year-over-year sales were down in all three tiers. Compared to a year ago, sales decreased 7.8 percent in the low tier, fell 1.3 percent in the middle tier, and dropped 3.1 percent in the high tier.

As of September 2014, 30.2 percent of sales were in the low end regions (down from 31.5 percent a year ago), 35.2 percent in the mid range (up from 34.2 percent a year ago), and 34.6 percent in the high end (up from 34.3 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

Once again the big shift in the county-wide median price (up 5.3 percent in a month after falling 6.6 percent the month before) is driven almost entirely by the shift between less expensive and more expensive parts of the county.

The post South County Sales Slump in September appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

When viewed in this way, an interesting pattern becomes apparent. Although home prices did not bottom out until early 2012, sales began to increase in more neighborhoods than they were decreasing by mid-2011, and remained relatively strong all the way through late last year.

However, starting in November and continuing through the recently-released August data, the scales tipped back toward sales losses again.

To get another view on how weak sales are this year, here’s a view of the average number of neighborhoods experiencing sales gains from January through August in each of the last fifteen years:

You have to go all the way back to the middle of the housing bubble bust in 2009 to find another year with sales growth in King County neighborhoods as weak as it has been in 2014.

It will be interesting to see if we hit another dip this coming November like we did last year, or if things level out.

The post Sales Growth in 2014 Has Been the Weakest Since 2009 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of August data:

• low end: $251,900-$375,000
• mid range: $325,000-$689,888
• high end: $460,000-$1,672,500

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in the low and middle tiers fell for the second month in a row between July and August. Meanwhile the high tier (Eastside) continued rising. The low tier fell 4.3 percent in the month, the middle tier decreased 8.8 percent, and the high tier gained 2.3 percent.

After just two months of declines, the median price in the low and middle tiers is now down year-over-year. Nineteen of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in August had a higher median price than a year ago, while just eleven had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: down 1.8 percent, middle tier: down 6.9 percent, high tier: up 11.0 percent.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

The share of sales in the low and middle tiers of South King and Seattle both gained ground in August, while Eastside sales dipped. This alone is enough to explain the dramatic month-over-month dip in the county-wide median price. Year-over-year sales were down in all three tiers. Compared to a year ago, sales decreased 1.5 percent in the low tier, fell 9.6 percent in the middle tier, and dropped 8.9 percent in the high tier.

As of August 2014, 32.3 percent of sales were in the low end regions (up from 30.6 percent a year ago), 33.3 percent in the mid range (down from 34.3 percent a year ago), and 34.4 percent in the high end (down from 35.1 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

Last month I pointed out that “much of the big spike in the county-wide median price last month can likely be attributed to a shift in sales toward the more expensive neighborhoods on the Eastside.” This month with those expensive sales falling off, the big decline in the median can also be pinned on a sales shift.

The post Eastside Saw Biggest Drop in August Sales appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of June data:

• low end: $256,000-$422,500
• mid range: $384,000-$702,500
• high end: $490,000-$1,344,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in the low and middle tiers actually fell between June and July. Only the high tier (Eastside) rose, and only just slightly. The low tier fell 2.3 percent in the month, the middle tier decreased 1.5 percent, and the high tier gained 0.9 percent. Meanwhile, the median price in all three tiers is still up year-over-year. Twenty-five of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in July had a higher median price than a year ago, while just fourteen had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 3.9 percent, middle tier: up 1.3 percent, high tier: up 12.0 percent.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

The share of sales in the low and middle tiers of South King and Seattle both lost ground in July, while the Eastside surged up. Year-over-year sales were up in the low and high tiers and down in the middle tier. Compared to a year ago, sales increased 4.9 percent in the low tier, fell 7.2 percent in the middle tier, and rose 5.2 percent in the high tier.

As of July 2014, 31.5 percent of sales were in the low end regions (up from 30.2 percent a year ago), 32.8 percent in the mid range (down from 35.6 percent a year ago), and 35.7 percent in the high end (up from 34.2 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

The Eastside has rarely made up this large a percentage of the sales in a given month. Much of the big spike in the county-wide median price last month can likely be attributed to a shift in sales toward the more expensive neighborhoods on the Eastside.

The post Expensive Eastside Sales Surged in July appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of June data:

• low end: $250,000-$391,225
• mid range: $337,475-$775,000
• high end: $526,000-$1,664,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in all three tiers rose between May and June. The low tier rose 5.2 percent in the month, the middle tier increased 10.6 percent, and the high tier gained 6.8 percent. Meanwhile, the median price in all three tiers is also up year-over-year, but with smaller gains than the month-to-month increases in the low and middle tiers. Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 1.2 percent, middle tier: up 7.3 percent, high tier: up 11.4 percent.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

The share of sales in Seattle gained some ground in June stolen mostly from the Eastside. Year-over-year sales were up in the low and medium tiers and down in the high tier. Compared to a year ago, sales increased 5.3 percent in the low tier, rose 3.6 percent in the middle tier, and fell 2.1 percent in the high tier.

As of June 2014, 32.2 percent of sales were in the low end regions, 35.7 percent in the mid range, and 32.1 percent in the high end. A year ago the low and mid ranges had less of the share and the high range had more: In June 2013 the low end made up 31.3 percent of the sales, the mid range was 35.2 percent, and the high end was 33.5 percent.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

The middle tier (mostly Seattle proper) has been steadily increasing in sales share over the last year and a half, increasing from 30.6 percent of the sales in December 2012 to 35.7 percent in June. This fits well with my theory that post-bubble homebuying attitudes have buyers leaning more toward the close-in neighborhoods than during the bubble.

The post Expensive Neighborhoods See Biggest Price Gains appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of May data:

• low end: $247,000-$437,000
• mid range: $348,500-$750,000
• high end: $503,000-$1,600,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in all the low tier rose between April and May, but fell in both the middle and high tiers. The low tier rose 4.5 percent in the month, the middle tier decreased 3.2 percent, and the high tier lost 1.3 percent. Meanwhile, the median price in all three tiers is still up year-over-year, although only just barely for the middle tier. Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: +2.7%, middle tier: +0.2%, high tier: +5.2%.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

The share of sales in Seattle and the Eastside inched up in May, taking share from the low tier south county regions. Year-over-year sales were down in all three tiers, dropping 8.4 percent in the low tier, 6.3 percent in the middle tier, and 8.1 percent in the high tier.

As of May 2014, 32.0 percent of sales were in the low end regions, 35.2 percent in the mid range, and 32.8 percent in the high end. A year ago the mid range had less of the share and the low and high range more: In May 2013 the low end made up 32.3 percent of the sales, the mid range was 34.7 percent, and the high end was 33.0 percent.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

We’re still in relatively unusual territory with the middle tier taking up the largest share of homes, but overall this year there haven’t really been any dramatic shifts in the sales volume between regions.

The post Sales Falling Across King County, Seattle Drops Least appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of April data:

• low end: $237,268-$412,500
• mid range: $327,000-$737,550
• high end: $477,500-$1,575,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in all three tiers rose between March and April. The low tier rose 1.3 percent in the month, the middle tier increased 5.5 percent, and the high tier gained 4.8 percent. Meanwhile, the median price in all three tiers is still up year-over-year. Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: +8.0%, middle tier: +1.5%, high tier: +6.8%.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

The share of sales in Seattle fell off dramatically in April, with South King and the Eastside both gaining ground. Year-over-year sales were down 3.0 percent in the low tier, up 5.6 percent in the middle tier, and down 2.4 percent in the high tier.

As of April 2014, 33.7 percent of sales were in the low end regions, 34.5 percent in the mid range, and 31.8 percent in the high end. A year ago the mid range had less of the share and the high range more: In April 2013 the low end made up 34.7 percent of the sales, the mid range was 32.7 percent, and the high end was 32.6 percent.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

In the pre-bubble market between 2001 and 2004, the volume of sales in the low tier typically had the largest share (35.8 percent on average across the period), followed by the middle tier (32.6 percent), followed by the high tier (31.6 percent). Even with the decline last month, the middle tier still has the lead with the most sales, which is historically abnormal.

The post More Sales Still Happening in Seattle appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of March data:

• low end: $217,500-$412,500
• mid range: $334,500-$716,000
• high end: $506,000-$1,221,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in the middle tier fell between February and March, while the low and high tiers saw prices increase. The low tier rose 2.8 percent in the month, the middle tier decreased 6.9 percent, and the high tier gained 1.8 percent. Meanwhile, the median price in all three tiers is still up year-over-year. Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: +10.4%, middle tier: +4.7%, high tier: +7.1%.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

The share of sales in the Eastside continued to drop off in March, with most of the difference being taken by Seattle. Just three months ago in December, 33 percent of King County single family home sales were in Seattle, while 35 percent were on the Eastside. In March, those numbers have flipped to 37 percent in Seattle and just 30 percent on the Eastside. Seattle is also the only region in the county where sales are up from a year ago. Year-over-year sales were down 3.4 percent in the low tier, up 16.3 percent in the middle tier, and down 11.8 percent in the high tier.

As of March 2014, 33.1 percent of sales were in the low end regions, 37.0 percent in the mid range, and 29.9 percent in the high end. A year ago the mid range had less of the share and the high range more: In March 2013 the low end made up 34.3 percent of the sales, the mid range was 31.8 percent, and the high end was 33.9 percent.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

In the pre-bubble market between 2001 and 2004, the volume of sales in the low tier typically had the largest share (35.8 percent on average across the period), followed by the middle tier (32.6 percent), followed by the high tier (31.6 percent). The mix we’ve got now with the middle tier taking the clear sales lead is definitely abnormal.

The post Seattle Sales Take More Share from the Eastside appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of February data:

• low end: $203,200-$370,000
• mid range: $332,000-$655,500
• high end: $501,475-$1,392,500

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in the middle tier rose between January and February, while the low and high tiers saw prices decrease. The low tier fell 1.8% in the month, the middle tier increased 8.8%, and the high tier lost 4.4%. Meanwhile, the median price in all three tiers is still up year-over-year. Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: +7.7%, middle tier: +22.1%, high tier: +9.0%.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

Between December and January sales fell off dramatically in the expensive Eastside regions, while climbing in the mid and low range areas. The trend reversed slightly in February, but the Eastside still makes up the smallest portion of sales. Year-over-year sales were down 0.1% in the low tier, up 9.8% in the middle tier, and down 8.7% in the high tier.

As of February 2014, 34.5% of sales were in the low end regions, 33.9% in the mid range, and 31.6% in the high end. A year ago the mid range had less of the share and the high range more: In February 2013 the low end made up 34.5% of the sales, the mid range was 30.9%, and the high end was 34.6%.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

The high end regions typically have a smaller share of the monthly sales than the middle and low range regions, so this recent shift is really just the mix getting back to where it normally is. The disproportionate share of sales that the high end has been accounting for through 2012 and 2013 is certainly part of the reason the median price has gone up so much, and the decreasing share on the Eastside explains why it is going down over the last few months.

The post Seattle Sales on the Rise, Eastside Slipping appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of September data:

• low end: $229,000-$395,985
• mid range: $330,000-$608,500
• high end: $474,000-$1,300,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in the low and middle tiers rose between November and December, while the high tier saw a slight decrease. The low tier rose 7.4% in the month, the middle tier increased 6.6%, and the high tier lost 8.0%. Meanwhile, the median price in the high tier regions is actually down slightly from a year earlier, while the middle tier regions barely turned in a gain. Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: +11.8%, middle tier: +0.1%, high tier: -1.0%.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

The Eastside held fairly steady in December, while Seattle dipped and South King surged.

As of December 2013, 32.4% of sales were in the low end regions, 32.9% in the mid range, and 34.7% in the high end. A year ago the split was tilted slightly less toward the mid range: In December 2012 the low end made up 33.7% of the sales, the mid range was 30.6%, and the high end was 35.7%.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

Even with the big spike up in low end sales in December, we’re still in rather unusual territory. If the low-end regions continue to see a sales surge relative to the rest of the county while also showing the strongest price gains, we’ll probably see the overall county-wide median price continue to increase for a while.

The post Median Price Dips on Eastside, Climbs in South King appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of September data:

• low end: $227,000-$364,000
• mid range: $335,000-$715,000
• high end: $500,000-$1,599,500

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in the low and middle tiers fell between September and October, while the high tier saw a slight increase. The low tier dropped 2.2% in the month, the middle tier fell 1.8%, and the high tier gained 2.2%. All three tiers are still up year-over-year. Low tier: +9.6%, middle tier: +19.2%, high tier: +14.4%.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

The share of sales that are taking place in the most expensive parts and the cheapest parts of the county fell slightly last month, while sales share in Seattle increased.

As of October 2013, 30.5% of sales were in the low end regions, 36.1% in the mid range, and 33.4% in the high end. A year ago the split was much more balanced: In October 2012 the low end made up 33.0% of the sales, the mid range was 33.4%, and the high end was 33.6%.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

The high end regions have quickly gone from the smallest share of sales to the largest share, while the low end regions have flipped the other way. The result of that switch is likely to move the overall median price up considerably, as more sales take place in expensive regions than cheap ones.

The post October Home Prices Dip Most in Low Tier Neighborhoods appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of August data:

• low end: $228,500-$370,000
• mid range: $329,475-$658,000
• high end: $470,000-$1,602,500

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in all three tiers fell between August and September. The low tier dropped 3.2% in the month, the middle tier fell 4.9%, and the high tier lost 2.3%. All three tiers are of course still up year-over-year. Low tier: +18.1%, middle tier: +11.8%, high tier: +7.2%.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

The share of sales that are taking place in the most expensive parts of the county fell slightly last month, while sales share in the cheap parts of the county increased.

As of September 2013, 31.5% of sales were in the low end regions, 34.2% in the mid range, and 34.3% in the high end. A year ago the low end regions had more of the share and the mid range less: In September 2012 the low end made up 32.5% of the sales, the mid range was 32.0%, and the high end was 35.4%.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

Even after the dip in high tier sales share this month, the expensive regions still had the most sales, which is a relatively rare situation.

The post Median Price Fell Across King County in September appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of August data:

• low end: $243,000-$391,503
• mid range: $360,000-$673,600
• high end: $498,500-$1,265,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in the mid range regions fell between July and August, losing 0.9% month-over-month, but was still up 17.8% year-over-year. The low tier was up 1.3% MOM and 19.6% YOY, while expensive homes on the eastside gained the most month-over-month, up 3.3% between July and August. The high tier was up 13.9% YOY.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

The share of sales that are taking place in the most expensive parts of the county has been surging over the last four months, rising from 32.6% in April to 35.1% in August. Over the same period, the share of sales in the low end regions has fallen from 34.7% to 30.6%.

As of August 2013, 30.6% of sales were in the low end regions, 34.3% in the mid range, and 35.1% in the high end. A year ago the low end regions had more of the share and the mid range less: In August 2012 the low end made up 32.9% of the sales, the mid range was 31.5%, and the high end was 35.5%.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

Since January 2000, the high tier has only accounted for the largest share of sales as it did in August in 22 of 176 months (12.5% of the time).

The post Eastside Homes Get More Expensive, Sell More appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of May data:

• low end: $238,500-$370,000
• mid range: $353,000-$650,000
• high end: $481,500-$1,540,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The low end region actually slipped a bit between June and July, losing 4.8% month-over-month. However, the low end was still up 17.4% year-over-year. The middle tier was up 4.4% MOM and 12.9% YOY, while the high tier gained 0.3% MOM and 7.4% YOY.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

The share of sales that are taking place in the cheapest parts of the county continues to drop, down from 34.7% in April to 30.2% in July. Over the same four-month period, the share of sales in the high end regions has risen from 32.6% to 34.2%. This explains how the median price can be falling in 14 of the 29 neighborhoods but rising county-wide.

As of July 2013, 30.2% of sales were in the low end regions, 35.6% in the mid range, and 34.2% in the high end. A year ago the low end regions had more of the share and the mid range more: In July 2012 the low end made up 33.3% of the sales, the mid range was 31.8%, and the high end was 34.9%.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

July marks three months in a row that the middle tier has had the most sales while the low tier has the least, which is quite unusual historically.

The post Home Prices and Sales Slip in South King appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of May data:

• low end: $235,000-$420,000
• mid range: $309,950-$645,000
• high end: $485,000-$1,137,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The low end regions are gaining the most lately, up 19.8% year-over-year and 6.7% month-over-month. The middle tier was up 17.4% YOY and 3.3% MOM, while the high tier gained 5.2% YOY and 0.9% MOM.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

The share of sales that are taking place in the cheapest parts of the county has been falling fast over the last few months, down from 34.7% in April to 31.3% in June. This goes a long way toward explaining why the median price has shot up so much over the last few months.

As of June 2013, 31.3% of sales were in the low end regions, 35.2% in the mid range, and 33.5% in the high end. A year ago the low end regions had less of the share and the high end more: In June 2012 the low end made up 29.8% of the sales, the mid range was 35.1%, and the high end was 35.1%.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

There haven’t been many times since 2000 that the middle tier has had the most sales, and even fewer times that the low tier has simultaneously had the least sales. We’re definitely still in an odd market right now.

The post South King County Homes Gaining Value Fastest appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of May data:

• low end: $223,900-$365,000
• mid range: $320,000-$685,000
• high end: $459,576-$1,175,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The low end regions were actually the only ones to see a significant increase in the median price between April and May. The mid-range regions fell slightly, while the high end was basically flat.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

Month over month the low end regions took a big dip while the mid-range spiked up. The high end gained a little share. As of May 2013, 32.3% of sales were in the low end regions, 34.7% in the mid range, and 33.0% in the high end. A year ago the low end regions had more of the share and the high end less: In May 2012 the low end made up 34.0% of the sales, the mid range was 34.3%, and the high end was 31.7%.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

If this month’s spike sales share for the mid-range regions keeps up we’ll definitely see the county-wide median price show some strong increases as well, even if ovoerall home values simply hold steady.

The post Seattle Sales Gain, Cheap South King Sales Slip appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of April data:

• low end: $208,000—$328,975
• mid range: $318,000—$631,000
• high end: $465,000—$1,240,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in the low end regions inched up, while median in the high and mid-tier regions both saw another sizeable bump in April.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

Month over month the low end regions accounted for a slightly larger share of sales. The high end lost share again while the mid-tier gained. As of April 2013, 34.7% of sales were in the low end regions, 32.7% in the mid range, and 32.6% in the high end. A year ago the low end regions had less of the share and the high end more: In April 2012 the low end made up 33.3% of the sales, the mid range was 33.6%, and the high end was 33.1%.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

As the low end gains share we’re heading toward a market that looks similar to what we experienced during the bubble, when the low end regions consistently made up 35% to 40% of the sales. So far things are not that extreme yet though.

The post Cheap South King Sales Gain More Share appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In this chart I’ve grouped zip codes into their approximate NWMLS regions, which break South County into SE King and SW King and display Seattle and N King separately.

Southwest King County is still much more distressed than the other regions, but steep declines in the last two months have dropped its share of bank-owned sales from 28% in February to just 19% in April. Seattle and the Eastside have decreased as well, and now sit at just 2.4% and 3.3% respectively.

After shooting up from 1.4% in December to 11.9% in March, bank-owned sales fell to 9.0% of the total in North King County in April.

Overall, the effects of distressed inventory and sales are mostly behind us in the Seattle area, save for Southwest King County, which still seems to have a bit to work through this year.

The post Bank-Owned Sales Drop Below 20% in SW King County appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of March data:

• low end: $197,995—$407,000
• mid range: $250,000—$650,000
• high end: $425,000—$1,262,500

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in the low end regions was basically flat, while median in the high and mid-tier regions both saw a bump in March.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

Month over month the low end regions accounted for basically the same share of sales. The high end lost a little share and the mid-tier gained. As of March 2013, 34.3% of sales were in the low end regions, 31.8% in the mid range, and 33.9% in the high end. A year ago the low end regions had a bit more of the share and the high end less: In March 2012 the low end made up 35.8% of the sales, the mid range was 32.1%, and the high end was 32.1%.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

We’re still in odd, uncharted territory, with the low and high ends both taking up about the same share of sales and the middle tier coming in last. We haven’t seen a market with this kind of mix at all, as far back as this data goes.

The post South King and Eastside Sales Neck and Neck appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In this chart I’ve grouped zip codes into their approximate NWMLS regions, which break South County into SE King and SW King and display Seattle and N King separately.

Southwest King County is still the leader, where nearly a quarter (22.5%) of sales are still bank-owned homes. Unsurprisingly, Seattle and the Eastside are still the lowest, where bank-owned homes made up just 4.3% and 4.4% of sales in March.

Interestingly, sales of bank-owned homes in North King County (Shoreline, Lake Forest Park, Kenmore) have shot up from just 1.4% in December (lower than Seattle and the Eastside) to 12.7% in March. From what I have seen of the inventory situation in those areas, this is probably just because very few non-distressed listings have been hitting the market in the last few months.

The post Southwest King County Still Most-Distressed appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of February data:

• low end: $177,000—$307,475
• mid range: $265,000—$674,225
• high end: $418,961—$1,099,950

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The low and high regions both had their median bump up a bit, while median in the mid-tier regions fell slightly.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

The high tier fell while the low tier surged in January, which fits nicely with the big drop in the overall median price. As of February 2013, 34.5% of sales were in the low end regions, 30.9% in the mid range, and 34.6% in the high end. A year ago the low end regions had a fair bit more sales and the high end less: the low end made up 39.7% of the sales, the mid range was 29.8%, and the high end was 30.6%.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

The big shift away from the low end regions and toward the high end regions explains a good amount of the 18.5% increase in the county-wide median price. No big surprise that the median would go way up when sales in cheap parts of the county fall off and sales in expensive regions shoot up.

The post Expensive Eastside Home Sales Spiked in February appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of December data:

• low end: $194,950—$335,500
• mid range: $272,000—$656,500
• high end: $384,498—$1,095,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

In a flip from December, the middle tier regions inched up slightly in January, while the low and high regions both fell.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

The high tier fell while the low tier surged in January, which fits nicely with the big drop in the overall median price. As of January 2013, 36.0% of sales were in the low end regions, 31.3% in the mid range, and 32.6% in the high end. A year ago the numbers were almost identical: the low end made up 36.4% of the sales, the mid range was 31.1%, and the high end was 32.5%.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

Last month’s shift put us back to a more normal market where the low end regions make up more of the sales. It will be interesting to see if this persists as we get further into the year.

The post Low End Sales Spike, High End Slips appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of December data:

• low end: $193,000—$303,475
• mid range: $271,500—$729,000
• high end: $424,953—$1,035,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The mid range dipped a bit in December, but the low and high regions both ticked up again.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

Big shift this month as the spendy Eastside spikes up, stealing share from mid-range Seattle. As of December 2012, 33.7% of sales were in the low end regions, 30.6% in the mid range, and 35.7% in the high end. A year ago the low end made up 35.4% of the sales, the mid range was 32.7%, and the high end was 31.9%.

Finally, here’s an updated look at this same set of data all the way back through 2000:

There haven’t been many times when the expensive Eastside regions have had the largest share of sales. We’re certainly in the midst of a weird market.

As a bonus, here’s a chart of the share of sales in each NWMLS region that were bank-owned. I created this one for Eric Pryne over at the Seattle Times a few months ago, and have updated it with December data. In this chart I’ve grouped zip codes into their approximate NWMLS regions, which break South County into SE King and SW King and display Seattle an N King separately.

At its peak in January of 2012, nearly half of the sales in SW King County were bank-owned homes, but as of December that number had fallen to just 14%. With the dramatic, across-the-board drop in bank-owned sales combined with the strengthening of sales in the expensive Eastside regions, it’s no wonder the county-wide median price has gone up so much over the past year.

The post Eastside Sales Surge, Seattle Sales Slip appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of November data:

• low end: $180,000—$292,450
• mid range: $295,000—$693,350
• high end: $440,000—$1,195,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

We’ve got a slow climb over the last few months in the low end regions, a decent bump up in the mid range, and a slight decline in the high end.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

This chart has become somewhat of a mess in recent months as all three regions converge on the middle. As of November 2012, 32.5% of sales were in the low end regions, 33.9% in the mid range, and 33.6% in the high end. A year ago the low end made up 37.5% of the sales, the mid range was 29.3%, and the high end was 33.3%, so there has been a definite dropoff in the low end regions over the last year, with the slack being picked up mostly in Seattle and north Seattle.

Lastly, here’s an updated look at this same set of data all the way back through 2000:

It’s interesting how closely the big moves up in the median price this year correlate to the big moves down in the share of homes that are being sold in south King. Go figure: When you sell fewer cheap homes, the median price increases.

The post Eastside Prices Stall; Seattle & South King Gain Ground appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of September data:

• low end: $192,500—$355,000
• mid range: $249,950—$694,500
• high end: $375,250—$1,012,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

After a strong spring, all three regions have been more or less flat for the last three months. Up a bit, back down a bit, or down a bit then back up a bit.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

Sales in the Eastside have had a strong showing recently, moving from 30.6% in February to 35.4% as of September, while sales in South King have taken a hit. This is no doubt one part of why the county-wide median price has climbed so much this year.

Lastly, here’s an updated look at this same set of data all the way back through 2000:

Sales in the Eastside currently make up a larger portion of overall sales than they have at any point in the last 12 years, save for one month in late 2003. My guess is that this is because home prices did not fall as much on the Eastside, and buyers typically made larger down payments, so that just happens to be where people can currently afford to sell their homes.

The post Sales in Pricey Eastside Neighborhoods Strengthening appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of March’s data:

• low end: $181,600—$290,750
• mid range: $261,500—$625,000
• high end: $400,000—$1,019,975

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

All three regions have been on an upswing since February or March, with the high end gaining the most since its early 2012 low point.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

That’s a pretty tangled mess, but the key here is that the percentage of each month’s sales that are happening in the cheap parts of the county have been dropping like a rock most of the year, falling from nearly 40% of the sales in February to less than 30% in June. Meanwhile the medium and high price parts of the county are both on the upswing, moving from around 30% in February to 35% in June.

This is another part of why the overall median has been shooting up so much. When fewer sales occur in the cheap parts of the county, the median will go up even if each individual home’s value is unchanged.

Lastly, here’s an updated look at this same set of data all the way back through 2000:

Three months ago I said:

If this one-month dip in sales in South King continues as we move through the spring and into summer, expect the county-wide median price to continue to climb.

Looks like that’s pretty much exactly what has happened since then. In fact, the percentage of sales that are taking place on the Eastside nearly hit an all-time high in June. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues through the end of 2012.

The post Sales in Cheap Regions Plummeted in the Second Quarter appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In a big surprise to nobody, the most expensive zip code in the area is downtown Seattle’s 98101, with a whopping $482 median price per square foot. Of course, that actually looks cheap compared to the pricing on new construction condos downtown, but I digress.

Here are the top ten most-expensive zip codes in King / Snohomish / Pierce, by median price of home sales over the last three months:

And here are the top ten least-expensive zip codes in King / Snohomish / Pierce, by median price of home sales over the last three months:

Okay that was almost all Tacoma. How about the ten least-expensive zip codes in King County:

South King County with the sweep.

The post The Seattle-Area’s Most Expensive Zip Code Is… appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of March’s data:

• low end: $157,000—$282,500
• mid range: $230,000—$615,000
• high end: $376,000—$1,025,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

Both South King and the Eastside saw increases between February and March, while Seattle / North King actually dipped slightly.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

Not surprisingly, the big bump in the county-wide median price from $308,125 in February to $330,000 in March corresponds with a big dip in the share of homes sold in the cheapest parts of the county.

Lastly, here’s an updated look at this same set of data all the way back through 2000:

If this one-month dip in sales in South King continues as we move through the spring and into summer, expect the county-wide median price to continue to climb. Personally I think the mix over the next year or so will probably resemble roughly what it was from 2004 through 2006, but for different reasons (more cash buyers instead of zero-down buyers)

The post Sales in Cheap Parts of King Dropped Off in March appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up, Deejayoh’s request:

…it would be interesting to see the trend on the absolute numbers rather than the relative percentages.

No problem, here you go:

Since each region is fairly close to a third of the sales most of the time, it’s difficult to make out much detail on this chart, but you can still see the surge in South King during the bubble, followed by the relative strength of Seattle during the bust.

Next, Lily’s request:

Can you do a graph of median prices for the 3 regions?

That one’s a little tricky, since the calculating the median for each of the three regions would require access to the original source data of every sale. However, we can get a decent approximation by taking the median of the medians for each area. That’s what I’ve charted below:

Here are some stats on the prices for each of the three regions:

It is interesting to note that individually, the low and mid-range regions have been going up since October (the high end is down <2%), and yet that’s when the county-wide median began a renewed steady decline. This is of course explained by the increasing share of sales that are taking place in the cheaper parts of the county, pushing the county-wide median down to a new low in January despite the fact that only three of the thirty areas individually saw a new low in January.

The post King County’s Low-End Regions Over 40% Off Peak Price appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The reason this is interesting is the interplay between sales shifts and median price. For example, as more sales occur in lower-priced areas, it can shift the median price down further than the individual areas’ median prices may have moved.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of January’s data:

• low end: $155,000—$322,500
• mid range: $222,250—$605,000
• high end: $365,000—$1,190,000

In the following chart I have plotted the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

Interestingly, sales in the mid range region have been steadily dipping over the last few years, while sales in the high end region have been gaining ground. That is, until October or so, when sales in the low end region started shooting up, taking share away from the mid range and high end. Not coincidentally, that shift coincided with the big drop in the county-wide median in October.

Here’s a look at just January 2011 and January 2012:

Compared to exactly a year ago, South King’s share of the sales grew, taking from both Seattle and the Eastside.

Lastly, here’s an updated look at this same set of data all the way back through 2000:

The move since last October seems to be going back toward a mix more like what we saw during the heyday of the bubble between 2004 and 2006. Hopefully the uptick in action at the low end isn’t a portent to another feeding frenzy.

It will be interesting to see if this pattern continues through 2012. My sense is that the low end is picking up because we’re seeing a bit of an uptick in value-shoppers and investors looking for homes to rent out or flip.

The post Cheap Sales in South King County Picking Up Steam appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last Week Redfin released their September market data. As is my tradition, I will be re-posting the heat map here.

Here’s this month’s sweet Google Fusion Tables zip code heat map. You can zoom in/out, and click on a zip code to get the detailed September numbers for that region.

Note that the color being displayed on each zip code is based on whichever type of home (SFH, condo, townhouse) sold the most in that zip code. For the full details on how the heat map is created, see the “Methodology” footnote on the Redfin post.

Also included in the Redfin post is the “top 5 hottest neighborhoods.” Ravenna snags September’s top spot, with a heat index of 90.4, as Lake City takes #2 with 83.8. Rainier Valley was once again the coldest neighborhood, with a Heat Index of just 32.2.

The post Redfin: Slow Sales, Little Heat in Seattle’s Housing Market appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

On Monday Redfin released their August market data. The narrative is light this month, as we’re working on a new format, but I still wanted to post the heat map here, since I love heat maps.

Here’s this month’s sweet Google Fusion Tables zip code heat map. You can zoom in/out, and click on a zip code to get the detailed August numbers for that region.

Note that the color being displayed on each zip code is based on whichever type of home (SFH, condo, townhouse) sold the most in that zip code. For the full details on how the heat map is created, see the “Methodology” footnote on the Redfin post.

Also included in the Redfin post is the “top 5 hottest neighborhoods.” Capitol Hill snags August’s top spot, with a heat index of 120.7, barely beating out Wallingford, where the index was 120.5.

South Seattle was the coldest last month, with Rainier Valley and Beacon Hill topping the coldest neighborhoods table at Heat Indices of 42.9 and 47.8, respectively.

The post Redfin: Capitol Hill & Wallingford Seattle’s Hottest Neighborhoods in August appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last Friday Redfin released their July market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which I did not write this month):

Redfin Capitol Hill Team Lead agent Allie Howard says: “I give the summer of 2011 an “F” for frustration! Sellers are frustrated as prices of comparable homes remain low and many cannot afford to sell at current price levels. Those sellers who must move on are opting to rent their homes until the market recovers. Buyers are frustrated as well due to the lack of available inventory. When something desirable appears on market, they find themselves competing against other buyers for the better homes. It may still be a ‘buyer’s market,’ but you have to be fast to reel in the winners.”

Here’s this month’s sweet Google Fusion Tables zip code heat map. You can zoom in/out, and click on a zip code to get the detailed July numbers for that region.

Note that the color being displayed on each zip code is based on whichever type of home (SFH, condo, townhouse) sold the most in that zip code.

In order to roll sales, inventory, and prices all into a single “heat” number, I created a new “heat index” for Redfin, where a market with 6.0 months of supply (end of month inventory / one-month closed sales) and +5.0% year-over-year appreciation in the median price per square foot translates to an index value of 75. For the full details, see the “Methodology” footnote on the Redfin post.

Also included in the Redfin post is the “top 5 hottest neighborhoods.” The list will probably look familiar: Magnolia, Ballard, Northwest Seattle, Queen Anne, and Northeast Seattle.

Again, I’ll probably postthe usual Tableau map later this week. For now though, enjoy the Google map.

The post Redfin: Summer Not so Hot for Local Real Estate appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As promised on Monday, I’d like to post the usual Tableau map of Redfin’s monthly Seattle-area market stats.

Don’t forget that you can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here. Going forward I’ll probably just include both of these maps in the same post.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in May is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

This month’s biggest sales winner in King County was way out in Snoqualmie (98065) (last month’s biggest loser), where sales bumped up from 7 in May to 18 in June. King County’s biggest decline was in NW Seattle / W Shoreline (98177), where sales fell 42% from 24 in May to 14 in June.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in May in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98115 — 55 sales.
• Snohomish: 98208 — 64 sales.
• Pierce: 98391 — 77 sales.
• Thurston: 98501 — 51 sales.
• Kitsap: 98367 — 34 sales.

Inventory almost turned positive in June, declining month-to-month in 35 King County neighborhoods, flat in 4, and rising in 34. Year-to-year continues to come in worse: Just 12 neighborhoods saw inventory increase, 3 were flat, and the remaining 58 are all lower than a year ago.

The median price fell from a year ago in 59 King County zip codes, and rose in just 12. The median price per square foot was down in 54 zip codes, flat in 1, and up in 17.

Anything stand out to you about the detailed stats this month?

The post Your Regularly Scheduled Redfin/Tableau Mashup appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last Thursday Redfin released their June market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which I also wrote):

So far this summer the real estate market in Seattle is about as exciting as a Matlock Marathon at the High School Prom.

Very few quality, well-priced new listings are coming on the market, and when one finally does, it’s the same story every time as the few buyers that are out there all descend at once and end up bidding against each other.
…
“New listings are slow to hit the market, and buyers are getting frustrated with the inventory,” said Redfin Redmond/Bothell Agent Kurt Pepin. “Buyers are anxious to buy, but are also being very smart about their purchases. The pure emotional buy is gone, while crunching every number possible has become the new norm.”

New in this month’s report is the sweet Google Fusion Tables zip code heat map below. You can zoom in/out, and click on a zip code to get the detailed June numbers for that region.

Note that the color being displayed on each zip code is based on whichever type of home (SFH, condo, townhouse) sold the most in that zip code.

In order to roll sales, inventory, and prices all into a single “heat” number, I created a new “heat index” for Redfin, where a market with 6.0 months of supply (end of month inventory / one-month closed sales) and +5.0% year-over-year appreciation in the median price per square foot translates to an index value of 75. For the full details, see the “Methodology” footnote on the Redfin post.

I plan to post the usual Tableau map later this week, but I’d love to get your feedback on this map and the new heat index. Thanks!

The post Redfin: June’s Warmest Puget Sound Region: NE Seattle appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last Wednesday Redfin released their May market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which I also wrote):

For the most part selection around Seattle continued the unseasonal shrinkage we’ve been pointing out all year. However, there may yet be some hope on the horizon as we move into the summer. Redfin Maple Valley Agent Lori Bakken is seeing a shift in the attitudes of potential sellers as they put aside their expectations of a quick price recovery. “Sellers are ready to be realistic, they’re accepting the loss,” said Lori.
…
Sales are picking up just as they do every year as we head into the summer, but they’re still quite a bit below where they were last year (as the tax credit was ramping down). Redfin Eastside coordinator Christine Golborne attributes the continued slump in sales to an ongoing sense of unease among potential buyers. “I think there’s a lot of distrust in the marketplace,” explained Christine. “People think that pricing is still going to go lower.”

It’s basically the same story we’ve been repeating all year so far: Slumping sales and sagging inventory. I suspect the market may linger through this kind of malaise for quite some time to come…

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in May is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

Sales volume is still slipping in most places, but continues to rise in a few. The biggest winner in King County was Des Moines (98198), where sales shot up from 15 in April to 27 in May. King County’s biggest decline was in Snoqualmie (98065), where sales fell 59% from 17 in April to 7 in May.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in May in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98042 — 54 sales.
• Snohomish: 98012 — 62 sales.
• Pierce: 98391 — 77 sales.
• Thurston: 98503 — 43 sales.
• Kitsap: 98366 — 30 sales.

Inventory continued falling in most places in April, declining month-to-month in 41 King County neighborhoods, flat in 3, and rising in 28. Year-to-year continues to come in worse: 12 neighborhoods saw inventory increase, 2 were flat, and the remaining 59 are all lower than a year ago.

The median price fell from a year ago in 51 King County zip codes, and rose in just 14. The median price per square foot was down in 56 zip codes and up in just 9.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Real Estate Limbo Drags On… appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last Wednesday Redfin released their April market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which I also wrote):

“Buyers are excited to start looking for homes,” says Corey St John, a Redfin Capitol Hill Agent, “…until they see what’s available.” By this time of year, the selection of homes is usually in full bloom, but this year buyers have been faced with a lot of stale inventory. “Buyers are getting frustrated. They were thinking that by now there would be a lot of new homes coming on the market, but there just aren’t.”

That frustration appears to be simply turning many would-be buyers off completely, as sales continue to mark double-digit declines across most of the Seattle area.

With sales dropping off — not only from last year’s tax-credit-juiced levels, but even just since March in many cities — one would expect the few buyers that are out there shopping to have it pretty easy. Unfortunately, that’s not what our agents are seeing in the field.

“Most of the buyers we’re working with today either have been recently or are right now in a multiple offer situation,” says Corey St John. Cheryl McLaine, Team Lead for the Bothell/Redmond team, is seeing the same thing. “Well over half of our recent deals have been multi-offer,” she explains.

What explains this seeming contradiction? How do we have slow sales and lots of multiple-offer situations? It seems that the few buyers who are out there today are all interested in the same small selection of homes.

“Today’s buyers are detached,” says Cheryl. “They definitely feel that they can be picky.” So the majority of homes for sale today — which are either overpriced or need work — end up sitting on the market for months. Meanwhile, the few nice, well-priced homes that come up tend to go fast.

That would seem to explain Redfin’s claims of the market suddenly heating up. It’s not that there are a ton more buyers out there, it’s just that the few buyers that are making offers all seem want the same homes, because most of what’s on the market is junk, overpriced, or both.

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in April is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

Sales volume is still slipping in most places, but continues to rise in a few. The biggest winner in King County was the U. District (98105), where sales shot up from 14 in March to 24 in April. King County’s biggest decline was in Renton (98057), where sales fell 58% from 12 in March to 5 in April.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in April in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98115 — 61 sales.
• Snohomish: 98258 — 55 sales.
• Pierce: 98387 — 67 sales.
• Thurston: 98513 — 38 sales.
• Kitsap: 98366 — 31 sales.

Inventory continued falling in most places in April, declining month-to-month in 41 King County neighborhoods, flat in 2, and rising in 29. Year-to-year continues to come in worse: 10 neighborhoods saw inventory increase, and the remaining 62 are all lower than a year ago.

The median price fell from a year ago in 51 King County zip codes, and rose in just 12. The median price per square foot was down in 54 zip codes and up in just 6.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Sales, Inventory, and Prices All Still Falling appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last Friday Redfin released their March market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which I also wrote):

Spring has officially sprung. Spring–when flowers bloom, birds chirp, the sun makes an occasional appearance through brief windows in Seattle’s perpetually grey winter sky, and the real estate market begins to pick up steam.

Let’s see how spring 2011 is shaping up:

• Flowers: check
• Birds: check
• Sunbreaks: check
• Real Estate: um…

As it turns out, the usual spring uptick in new listings and sales still isn’t materializing so far in 2011. What’s the deal? Where are the sellers? Where are the buyers?
…
Our customers are feeling the pain of languishing inventory. “Inventory is a little bit stale,” laments West Seattle Redfin Agent Klaus Gosma. “People are definitely thirsty for some ‘new blood.'”

Redfin Ballard Agent Bryan Haynes agrees. “In Ballard we’re seeing two kinds of listings—stale, overpriced homes that end up sitting on the market and well-kept, well-priced homes that quickly attract buyers’ attention.” Sadly, there just aren’t as many of the second kind as buyers would like.

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in March is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

Sales volume is still slipping in most places, but continues to rise in a few. The biggest winner in King County was N. Beacon Hill / Mt. Baker (98144), where sales shot up from just 9 in February to 28 in March. King County’s biggest decline was in Central East Bellevue (98007), where sales fell 20% from 10 in February to 8 in March.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in October in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98042 — 56 sales.
• Snohomish: 98012 — 74 sales.
• Pierce: 98391 — 71 sales.
• Thurston: 98513 — 35 sales.
• Kitsap: 98366 — 34 sales.

Inventory began to show a little life in March, declining month-to-month in 41 King County neighborhoods, flat in 4, and rising in 27. Year-to-year, the picture was less rosy: 12 neighborhoods saw inventory increase, 1 was flat, and the remaining 59 are all lower than a year ago.

The median price fell from a year ago in 46 King County zip codes, and rose in 19. The median price per square foot was down in 55 zip codes and up in just 9.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Sales, Prices, & Inventory All Slipping into Spring appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last Thursday Redfin released their February market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which I also wrote):

Welcome to Real Estate Bizarro World, where falling supply means falling prices and scarce demand still leads to multiple offer situations. 2011 continues to shape up as an unusual year for the Seattle-area real estate market, with the number of homes for sale in February falling when it should be rising, the number of buyers still near all-time lows, and prices showing persistent signs of weakness.
…
With prices still dropping, buyers are exercising their muscle. “Buyers have a price in their head of what they’re willing to pay for a house, and they’re not willing to budge,” said Michelle. “They want to battle. They go into it looking for a deal and ready to beat people up.”

“Buyers are not acquiescing to sellers,” agreed Kevin. “It may be a seller’s market by the numbers, but you need to be careful because buyers are very cautious and risk-averse.”

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in February is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

Sales volume is still slipping in most places, but continues to rise in a few. The biggest winner in King County was Mercer Island (98040), where sales shot up from just 8 in January to 22 in February. King County’s biggest decline was in Delridge (98126), where sales fell 36% from 11 in January to just 7 in February.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in October in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98052 — 27 sales.
• Snohomish: 98012 — 39 sales.
• Pierce: 98387 — 32 sales.
• Thurston: 98513 — 29 sales.
• Kitsap: 98312 — 22 sales.

Continuing the odd trend we’ve seen so far in 2011, inventory declined month-to-month in 52 King County neighborhoods, was flat in 3, and rose in 13. Year-to-year, the story was similar: 12 neighborhoods saw inventory increase, 3 were flat, and the remaining 53 are all lower than a year ago.

The median price fell from a year ago in 42 King County zip codes, and rose in 15. The median price per square foot was down in 50 zip codes and up in just 8.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Real Estate Bizarro World in Seattle in February appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

This time I’ve taken all the active listings as of February 17th and all the closed sales between January 1st 2010 and February 17th 2011, and slapped them all onto the same map. Crazy!

Click any zip code’s circle to update all the pies and bars below the map to show you the specific stats breakdown for that zip code. I’ve broken down the ratios of bank-owned, short sale, and non-distressed listings and sales as well as the median price and days on market for each bucket as well.

The circles are color-coded based on how “distressed” the listings and sales in the given zip code are. Zip codes that are less than 10% distressed are shades of blue, while over 10% is darker and darker red. Not a lot of blue out there.

Interestingly, the zip codes with the most activity also seem to be the ones where the largest percentages of homes being sold are bank owned. The basic story seems to be that it’s hard to move the non-distressed inventory.

Please be patient. This viz is pretty big, so it may take a few seconds to load and to react to your click when you select a zip code.

The post Mid-February Market Snapshot Map appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Happy Friday everybody. Let’s celebrate the upcoming weekend with a sweet interactive map. That’s right, it’s time again already to check out Redfin’s January market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which, as it turns out, I wrote):

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times… it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us.”

The opening line of Charles Dickens’ famous novel is a fitting description of the Seattle-area real estate market in January. Low prices are a buyer’s dream, but a seller’s nightmare. Inventory is still near record highs, but according to buyers, “there’s nothing out there.”
…
“The number one complaint I hear from my buyers today is ‘there’s nothing out there,'” said Loren Ellingson, a Redfin agent in Bellevue. “We’re all holding out, waiting and praying for more inventory in March.”

Kirkland Redfin agent Kathryn Rion agreed. “I have a lot of buyers who are really ready to go, but most of what’s out there is either overpriced or really yucky,” explained Kathryn.

Redfin’s data and our agents’ experience in the field confirms what I pointed out a month ago: inventory is unusually scarse across most of the Seattle area. One thing that I found particularly interesting when I was talking with our agents to collect their thoughts for this report was the interesting strategy that the banks seem to be employing on the Eastside with their REO inventory.

Despite the low overall sales volume on the Eastside, buyers there are encountering some frustrating situations. Loren and Kathryn are both beginning to see banks get a lot more aggressive with their listings, putting well-kept REO homes on the market at far below market value, often generating over a dozen offers (no joke!).

“When a nice bank-owned home hits the market in Bellevue, it inevitably gets a lot of offers,” said Loren. “Many of these listings are generating so much interest that the banks cut things off after receiving ten offers.”

These homes inevitably sell for a good amount over their list price, but in the end they are usually still cheaper than comparable “non-distressed” inventory, so you end up with a paradoxical situation where buyers are encountering multiple offers, but prices are still falling. Crazy.

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in January is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot for single-family homes, condos, or townhouses. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the geographic view to your liking.

If you flip the measure and range to inventory month-over-month, you can see the odd “two cities” dynamics. Inventory actually dropped from December to January (very unusual) across pretty much the entire Eastside, while rising (the normal seasonal pattern) in parts of central Seattle and north Seattle.

Year-over-year, the biggest winner for sales in King County this month was a tie between east of Lake Sammammish (98075) and Kennydale, where sales doubled from January 2010 to January 2011. King County’s biggest decline was in my home town of Kenmore (98028), where sales fell 77% from 39 a year ago to just 9 this year. 35 zip codes had decreasing sales volumes YOY, 3 were flat, and 15 saw an increase. Month-to-month, 53 zip codes fell, 2 were flat, and 1 increased (98007 – East Bellevue).

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in January in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98059 — 31 sales.
• Snohomish: 98012 — 33 sales.
• Pierce: 98387 — 28 sales.
• Thurston: 98513 — 14 sales.
• Kitsap: 98367 — 20 sales.

Year-to-year, 33 zip codes in King County gained inventory, 2 were flat, and 34 lost inventory. Almost a dead even split.

The median price fell from a year ago in 37 King County zip codes, and rose in 16. The median price per square foot was also down in 37 zip codes and up in 16.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data? Do your observations match up with the stark contrast Redfin’s agents are seeing between the Eastside and Seattle?

The post Redfin: Buyer’s Market No Breeze for Buyers appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In the map below I have taken all the currently active listings on the market in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties, and separated them into three buckets: bank owned, short sale, and non-distressed. Each zip code has a pie chart that shows the breakdown for that zip code. Pies are sized according to the total number of listings in the zip code. Float the mouse over a slice of pie to see the number of listings it represents, as well as the median list price and median days on market for those listings.

King County’s most distressed zip code is 98168, right between Boeing Field and Sea-Tac Airport. Of the 56 homes on the market there, 58% are bank owned or short sales. West Federal Way comes in a close second with 57% of the 228 homes on the market being either bank owned or short sale.

In Snohomish County, Marysville’s 98270 is by far the most distressed, with bank owned and short sale homes making up a whopping 61% of the listings. Pierce County’s leader is Orting’s 98360, with 56% of its listings distressed. South Puyallup’s 98375 is also up there at 54% distressed.

Central King County (basically Seattle and Bellevue) have relatively few distressed listings, but once you venture very far outside that narrow band to the north or the south, the picture changes fairly dramatically.

Here’s the total distressed listings breakdown for each county:

• King: 12% bank owned, 22% short sale, 66% non-distressed.
• Snohomish: 16% bank owned, 27% short sale, 57% non-distressed.
• Pierce: 14% bank owned, 23% short sale, 63% non-distressed.

Overall, 37% of the listings in King, Pierce, and Snohomish are either bank owned or a short sale.

It’s also interesting to see the difference between the prices of the distressed inventory vs. the non-distressed inventory. Take single-family homes in Deldrige (98106) for example. Here’s the number of homes, median price, and median days on market for the three buckets:

• non-distressed: 45 homes, $275,000, 88 DOM
• short sale: 21 homes, $259,990, 105 DOM
• bank owned: 22 homes, $147,000, 47 DOM

Short sales are a little cheaper than non-distressed, but are taking a lot longer to sell. Bank owned homes are a lot cheaper than non-distressed homes, and are selling a lot faster.

If you want to know what’s continuing to drive prices down in this long, slow grind, there’s your answer. Bank owned homes are driving down prices hard, and will likely continue to do so until the foreclosure surge dies down.

If you’re a potential seller in one of these areas with a lot of distressed listings, you’re going to have to work pretty hard to overcome the huge price advantage of the bank owned homes on the market. If your home is not priced right and doesn’t sparkle right out of the gate, you’re going to get left in the dust. Fair warning.

The post One in Three Seattle Area Home Listings are Distressed appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Now that it’s almost February, we should probably make some time to check out Redfin’s December market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative:

With buyers hitting the streets, and inventory scarce it stands to reason that sellers who list their homes for sale now, instead of waiting until spring, have the advantage of less competition. “I have quite a few buyers just waiting for an increase in inventory, which seems stale at the moment,” said Robin McCue, a Seattle Redfin agent, “Sellers should consider listing earlier than later in the season, as there are a lot of buyers just waiting for good homes.”

I guess it depends on what your definition of “a lot of buyers” is. There are definitely buyers waiting for good inventory (which has been quite stale lately), but I don’t know that I’d say there are a lot of buyers just yet.

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here. New in this month’s spreadsheet: Pending sales and 13-month trend tables! Check it out, we’re pretty proud of these sweet new features.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in December is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot for single-family homes, condos, or townhouses. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the geographic view to your liking.

Redfin’s data shows a bump in sales month-to-month, but not as big as what the NWMLS claimed. Year-over-year, the biggest winner in King County this month was E. Auburn (98002), which saw sales shoot up 133% from 6 in December 2009 to 14 in December 2010. King County’s biggest decline was in Lake City / Northgate (98125), where sales fell 42% from 26 a year ago to 15 this year. 39 zip codes had decreasing sales volumes YOY, 3 were flat, and 24 saw an increase. Month-to-month, 14 zip codes fell, 2 were flat, and 46 increased.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in December in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98033 — 42 sales.
• Snohomish: 98012 — 47 sales.
• Pierce: 98387 — 55 sales.
• Thurston: 98513 — 38 sales.
• Kitsap: 98366 — 34 sales.

Inventory declined month-to-month in most neighborhoods. Year-to-year, about a third of neighborhoods gained inventory, while two thirds were down from 2009.

The median price fell from a year ago in 41 King County zip codes, and rose in 25. The median price per square foot was down in 45 zip codes, flat in one, and up in 20.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Home Sales Thaw a Bit, Prices Still Mostly Falling appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up, let’s have a look at a map of the “staleness” of listings. The map below has a circle for every zip code with at least five listings. The circles are sized according to the number of listings, and color-coded based on the “staleness” of the listings. This is based on the original listing date, not the latest time the agent pulled and re-posted the same house.

Zip codes near the market-wide median of 92 days on the market are grey, above the median is blue, and below the median is red.

Here in King County, Medina (98039) has the most stale listings, with the median days on market coming in at 149. Of the zip codes with over 100 listings, West Seattle (98116) takes the cake with 129 median days on market for its 181 listings.

The freshest listings in King County are in downtown Seattle (98101), at just 54 median days on market. The north Seattle neighborhoods of Ballard (98107), Fremont/Greenlake (98103), and U District (98105) all came in well below the median as well, at 55, 74, and 63 respectively.

King and Snohomish County both had a county-wide median days on market of 90, while Pierce was slightly higher at 95.

The post Listings: Stale in West Seattle, Fresh in North Seattle appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

A couple days ago Redfin released their November market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative:

While median prices might be holding steady the time it takes to close has been lengthening. “About half of the buyers I’ve been working with have had their loans extended, and this is pushing out the buyers’ closing date,” said Coventry Merwin, a Redfin coordinator. “There doesn’t seem to be a pattern with respect to what type of bank it is, whether it’s a local or out of state lender, or the type of buyer. It seems to be a result of the lending climate in general. In November three of the six deals I worked on closed later than their contractual closing date. For December two out of the four of the deals will be closing late through no fault of the buyer. We find ourselves coaching buyers, these days, to expect the unexpected once the file goes to underwriting.”

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in November is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot for single-family homes, condos, or townhouses. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the geographic view to your liking.

Same story we’ve seen since the tax credit expired. Sales down year-over-year almost everywhere, with a handful of exceptions scattered here and there. The biggest winner in King County this month was Shoreline (98177), which saw sales shoot up 70% from 10 in November 2009 to 17 in November 2010. King County’s biggest decline was in (98055), where sales fell 50% from 14 in September to just 7 in October. Once again, very few neighborhoods saw year-over-year sales gains.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in October in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98115 — 40 sales.
• Snohomish: 98012 — 57 sales.
• Pierce: 98387 — 66 sales.
• Thurston: 98501 — 38 sales.
• Kitsap: 98367 — 23 sales.

As is common for this time of year, inventory declined month-to-month in almost every neighborhood. Year-to-year was a little more mixed, with many neighborhoods showing gains, but many others actually down from 2009.

The median price was down in most neighborhoods from a year ago, while the median price per square foot fell in even more neighborhoods.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Winter Already Here in Seattle Real Estate appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last week Redfin released their October market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative:

“The majority of buyers I am working with are not in any hurry to purchase, but want to take advantage of the lower house values we see in the winter,” said Cheryl McLaine, a Redfin agent in Redmond and Kirkland. “On the other side, sellers who have been on the market for over several months with regular price drops seem to have little financial room to negotiate.”

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in October is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

Although the overall sales volume was pretty pitiful, a number of zip codes did see month-to-month sales gains. The biggest winner in King County was Woodinville (98072), which saw sales nearly double from 10 in September to 19 in October. King County’s biggest decline was in Renton (98055), where sales fell 50% from 14 in September to just 7 in October. Once again, very few neighborhoods saw year-over-year sales gains.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in October in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98115 — 40 sales.
• Snohomish: 98012 — 57 sales.
• Pierce: 98387 — 66 sales.
• Thurston: 98501 — 38 sales.
• Kitsap: 98367 — 23 sales.

As is common for this time of year, inventory declined month-to-month in almost every neighborhood. Year-to-year was a little more mixed, with many neighborhoods showing gains, but many others actually down from 2009.

The median price was down in most neighborhoods from a year ago, while the median price per square foot fell in even more neighborhoods.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Market Still on Pause in October appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last week Redfin released their September market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative:

“Most of my clients are taking a wait-and-see approach to buying this past month,” said Michelle Swierz, a Redfin agent in Bellevue. “With little to no new inventory coming on the market, a lot of house hunters aren’t even finding homes they want to tour, let alone homes they would seriously consider purchasing.”
…
“Most buyers think they need to wait to start house hunting until spring when more homes are listed for sale,” said Kathryn Rion, a Redfin agent in Redmond. “But what they don’t realize is that many of the people listing their homes right now are extremely motivated to sell. There are deals to be had if you are able to move fast to pounce on an attractive listing, willing to negotiate, and can be patient with the process of searching for the right home.”

I agree, now through December is indeed the ideal time of year to find a good deal. If you’re not dead-set on finding that perfect “move-in-ready” dream home, you might be able to find a nice below-market deal on some stale property with a highly motivated seller. Of course, if you think that the area you’re looking in has more than another ten percent or so still to fall, it will probably be pretty hard to find a deal good enough to offset that kind of future decline.

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map them here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in September is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in September. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

Sales were scattered between August and September, with some areas seeing strong gains (such as Queen Anne’s 98119—up 18.2% MOM) and others falling quite a bit (such as Madrona/Leschi’s 98122—down 37.5% MOM). Year-over-year very few neighborhoods were up, and none in the core of Seattle.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in September in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98059 (East Renton) — 36 sales
• Snohomish: (tie) 98258 (Lake Stevens) & 98270 (Marysville) — 46 sales
• Pierce: 98387 (Spanaway) — 50 sales
• Thurston: 98501 (Olympia) — 54 sales
• Kitsap: 98370 (Poulsbo) — 33 sales

Although inventory often does not begin to decline until November, most neighborhoods saw a decrease in inventory from August to September. The notable exceptions are Queen Anne and most of Capitol Hill, where the number of homes for sale increased between 8% and 18%.

Prices (both the raw median and the size-adjusted median price per square foot) were fairly mixed month to month, with most neighborhoods turning in continued price drops, but a few marking slight increases.

As usual, the zip codes that saw the largest swing in median prices had only around ten sales in the month, which isn’t really enough data to draw a strong trend from. That’s the problem with returning to the slowest market in a decade—it’s difficult to measure useful price trends when your sale samples are so small.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: September Sales Pre-Frozen for Winter appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last night Redfin released their August market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative:

Our agents are reporting a steady stream of low-ball offers hitting sellers across the board. “Low-ball offers are rolling off the tongue of touring clients,” says Kenny Whiteside, a Redfin field agent. … Kenny is quick to point out that these offers were rarely if ever accepted by the seller.

By now, we’ve all heard (over & over & over) how insulting a low-ball offer is to a seller, but one thing we haven’t heard is how these low-ball offers are actually helping the seller. Lori Bakken, a Redfin Real Estate Agent in Tukwila, Kent and Auburn says, “Sellers aren’t desperate enough to accept these low-ball offers, but it is helping agents set realistic expectations in regards to pricing. It shows the seller that perhaps they priced their home too high straight out of the gate.” The trends of list prices falling faster than sale prices and sale-to-list ratios increasing slightly would seem to validate this observation.

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map them here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in August is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in August. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. I’ve also added a county selector so you can narrow or expand the view to your liking.

Some of the more rural parts of east King County, as well as south King and a good part of Pierce saw increased sales month-to-month, but sales continued to fall most everywhere else last month, both year-over-year and month-over-month.

Inventory was flat to down month-to-month across most of the Puget Sound, but up 10-20% over a year ago through much of King County. Meanwhile, the size-adjusted median price ($/sqft) continued to fall in most places.

98109 (E. Queen Anne, SLU), 98039 (Medina), and 98055 (S. Renton) all turned in double-digit increases in size-adjusted median prices, but with fewer than a dozen sales each, I wouldn’t draw many broad conclusions based on this month’s data in those areas.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Summer Sales Slump Stretches On appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last week Redfin released their latest monthly data, along with some interesting commentary and insights from their agents. Unlike the NWMLS releases which are always full of “I can’t believe what an amazing time it is for buyers” tripe, Redfin’s text is actually interesting and informative. Here’s an excerpt:

Here’s the word: after the first-time home-buyer tax credit expired, the few home sales that did occur were mostly high-end, driving median prices in King County up 2.6% compared to June.

But the truth is that demand was weak. King County sales volume fell 30.6% and inventory ticked up 1.0% at a time when home-buyers are usually snapping up whatever’s left on the market.
…
“Right now buyers want to ‘just try’ a low offer, only to have sellers get offended and refuse to respond,” said Robin McCue, a Redfin agent in Ballard. “The listing agent tells us what we would tell our listing clients: that a seller won’t take a 10% discount in negotiations without trying out that lower price on the broader market. Often both sides are unreasonable. We’ve seen buyers pushing a price that would drive sellers into a short sale, and a seller who rejected a 3% concession on a home 45 days on market. It’s crazy.”

This stand-off is taking its toll on sales volume. Last month, we predicted that King County sales in July would drop by 25% or more. This is exactly what happened, with a 30.6% decline.

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, but I still think an easier way to digest the numbers is in map form. In the map below each zip code with enough sales in July is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in July. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. New this month: Townhomes.

Sales took a tumble almost everywhere last month. The notable exceptions for single-family homes were 98122 (Capitol Hill), 98008 (W. Lake Sammamish), 98119 (Queen Anne), 98105 (U. District), and 98020 (Edmonds). All fairly high-desirability and high-price areas, so it’s not too surprising that they would be somewhat unfazed by the tax credit expiration.

Inventory was flat to up month-to-month across most of King County, but flat to down in most of Snohomish. Meanwhile, the size-adjusted median price ($/sqft) fell in most of Seattle, but actually rose slightly on the Eastside and in parts of Snohomish County.

Queen Anne (98119) and Magnolia (98199) are especially interesting story this month, with sales increasing month-to-month, inventory down year-over-year, and size-adjusted median prices falling 15% to 30% from a year ago. There may be more buyers, but it certainly appears that they’re getting a lot better deals in those neighborhoods.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Seattle Home Sales Deep Freeze in July appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

With the latest monthly stats release from Redfin going live a couple days ago, I thought I would spend a little more time with the data (in addition to all the on-the-clock time I spent this week getting it prepared for release).

In order to make the numbers in the spreadsheet more digestible, I thought a Tableau map would be just what the number doctor ordered (big surprise, I’m sure). In the map below each zip code with enough sales in June is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in June. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot.

[Update: By request, I have modified the color coding on the map below to a more colorblind-friendly palette.]

As you can see if you leave the map on its default setting, house sales took a tumble from May to June in most Seattle-area neighborhoods, but were slightly up month-to-month on the Eastside. I suspect with the (original, unextended) expiration of the tax credit at the end of June, next month that version of the map will see an awful lot more dots.

Interestingly, if you look at the raw median price year-over-year, you’ll see a fair bit of green in the central Seattle area, but if you flip the measure to the median price per square foot, much of that green turns to gray or red. This would seem to suggest that prices have actually fallen in many of these neighborhoods over the last year or so, but buyers are just purchasing bigger houses.

Let me know what you think of this method for visualizing Redfin’s housing market data. One thing that has always frustrated me about the available information has been that it was difficult to see how the market was changing from neighborhood to neighborhood. With Redfin’s data broken out by zip code, I think the ability to make a heat map like this goes a long way toward improving understanding of what’s really going on, but I’m interested to hear your feedback as well.

The post Redfin: Sales Stalling in Seattle, Climbing on Eastside appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here’s an interesting visualization that shows all the listings currently on the market around Seattle, with each zip code in King, Pierce, and Snohomish broken down by “non-distressed,” short sale, and bank-owned.

Not surprisingly, the percentage of distressed listings situation gets noticeably higher as you go further north and south out of central King County.

Looking at just single-family homes, the south Puyallup zip of 98375 seems to be the most distressed area in all three counties, with just under half the homes on the market (48%) being short sales or bank-owned.

Up in Snohomish, Marysville (98270) is the most-distressed area, with 88 short sales and 24 bank-owned homes, adding up to 40% of of the 281 total homes on the market there.

In King County, a number of areas in the south are highly distressed, with Federal Way (98023 & 98003), Lakeland (98001), Pacific (98047) and East Hill-Meridian (98031) all coming in with over 40% of their listings either short sales or bank-owned.

Here are the county-wide breakdowns:

King County

• 13,090 total listings
• 2,116 short sales (16%)
• 726 bank-owned (6%)
• 22% of listings distressed

Snohomish County

• 5,184 total listings
• 1,100 short sales (21%)
• 463 bank-owned (9%)
• 30% of listings distressed

Pierce County

• 5,881 total listings
• 1,162 short sales (20%)
• 452 bank-owned (8%)
• 27% of listings distressed

The post One in Four Seattle Area Home Listings are Distressed appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In their first data release for the Seattle area, they dig into inventory, sales volume, and prices for King County and a number of specific cities. While the blog post contains a good amount of info, the detailed spreadsheet is where the real action is at.

In the spreadsheet they break down inventory, listing prices, sales volume, and sold prices, including price per square foot. The data is broken down by county (17 counties total), by city, and by neighborhood. Sweet!

Unfortunately, since they’re just getting started with this, there isn’t enough data available yet to generate any interesting charts, so instead here’s a quick comparison of May data from the NWMLS and comparable data from Redfin on King County SFH:

I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on this new data from Redfin as it is released each month.

The post Redfin Gets Into the Monthly Data Game appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up is a map of SAAS across King County:

Only three areas were strongly in “seller’s market” territory in April (SAAS <1.75), while twelve were still relatively strong “buyer’s markets” (SAAS >2.25). The remaining fifteen markets were more or less balanced.

Next, let’s have another look at the viz of neighborhood YOY median price changes that we introduced in March.

Not too surprisingly, median prices were down from April 2010 in twenty of the thirty neighborhoods around King County, with the few seeing gains being centered around Seattle and the Eastside.

The post Still a “Buyer’s Market” in Many Neighborhoods appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It would be interesting to see what the median price buys you this year compared to last year, or the year before.

With some neighborhoods around Seattle showing year-over-year gains in their median prices, it would be informative to see just what kind of houses people are buying at the median price compared to a year ago.

Since I don’t have full access to a database with all the details for every home sold over the last few years, this exercise will be anecdotal, but I still think it will interesting.

For this post, we will examine the King County NWMLS areas listed in the following table. The single-family home (SFH) median prices listed below are an average of December through February in order to smooth out the noise that results from such small sample sizes.

Click the description of an area to jump to that area in the post below.

*6-month rolling average

In my anecdotal analysis of thirty SFH sales scattered around King County, I found that even in areas where the median prices are flat or going up, buyers seem to be getting more home for their money. The 2010 benefit ranged from 3% larger homes (for 19% less money) in Kirkland to a whopping 65% more square footage for roughly the same price as 2009 in the Greenlake area.

Below you will find the full sampling of three SFH sales in each of the above areas from January/February 2009 and three from January/February 2010. I’ll be looking for closed sales that fall within ±5% of the above-listed 3-month average of the median.

Hit the jump for the detailed tables and analysis.

Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood (705)

2009

2010

In our sampling of the Ballard / Greenlake / Greenwood area, the average early 2009 buyer paid $397,000 for 2.3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom in 1,097 square feet on a 3,623 square foot lot. The average early 2010 buyer paid $402,167 for 3.3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms in 1,820 square feet on a 4,018 square foot lot. In other words, the 2010 buyers got roughly 65% larger houses than the 2009 buyers for nearly the same price.

U District, Wedgewood, Lake City (710)

2009

2010

In our sampling of the U District / Wedgewood / Lake City area, the average early 2009 buyer paid $448,333 for 2.7 bedrooms and 1.6 bathrooms in 1,753 square feet on a 4,539 square foot lot. The average early 2010 buyer paid $441,333 for 3 bedrooms and 1.9 bathrooms in 2,150 square feet on a 5,148 square foot lot. In other words, the 2010 buyers got roughly 15% more house than the 2009 buyers for nearly the same price.

Capitol Hill, Madison Park (390)

2009

Note: I had to go a little bit outside the date and price range to find three sales for 390.

2010

In our sampling of the Capitol Hill / Madison Park area, the average early 2009 buyer paid $506,000 for 3 bedrooms and 1.3 bathrooms in 2,087 square feet on a 3,957 square foot lot. The average early 2010 buyer paid $522,667 for 3.7 bedrooms and 2.1 bathrooms in 2,617 square feet on a 3,466 square foot lot. In other words, the 2010 buyers got roughly 30% more house (but about 10% less land) than the 2009 buyers for a slightly higher price (3.3%).

East of Lake Sammamish (540)

2009

2010

In our sampling of the area east of Lake Sammamish, the average early 2009 buyer paid $545,000 for 3.7 bedrooms and 2.6 bathrooms in 2,353 square feet on a 9,914 square foot lot. The average early 2010 buyer paid $511,657 for 4 bedrooms and 2.6 bathrooms in 2,550 square feet on a 8,897 square foot lot. In other words, the 2010 buyers got roughly 8% bigger houses (on 10% less land) than the 2009 buyers for 6% lower prices.

Kirkland, Bridle Trails, Rose Hill (560)

2009

2010

In our sampling of the Kirkland / Bridle Trails / Rose Hill area, the average early 2009 buyer paid $664,333 for 3.7 bedrooms and 3.2 bathrooms in 2,964 square feet on a 9,011 square foot lot. The average early 2010 buyer paid $538,882 for 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms in 3,043 square feet on a 7,562 square foot lot. In other words, the 2010 buyers on average paid roughly 19% less for slightly larger houses on slightly smaller lots.

The post Buyers Getting More House for Their Money Even as Median Prices Rise appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

This is a phenomenon we have addressed here in the past, but since it has been eight months since our last exploration of the subject, I thought it would be a good time for another brief refresher.

As you know, the median price is simply the middle point of all home sales in an area during a given month—the home sale which saw half the remaining sales come in at a higher price, and half at a lower price. This is a better measure than the average since it cannot be distorted by a single sale for tens of millions of dollars, but it does sometimes change in unintuitive ways as the mix of sales shifts from one area to another.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of February’s data:

• low end: $215,475—$330,625
• mid range: $265,000—$617,000
• high end: $385,000—$1,325,000

In the following chart I have plotted the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

Over the past year, sales in the expensive Eastside have been steadily gaining share, taken from the least-expensive South County region in early 2009, and slowly eating away at the mid range Seattle / North County region in more recent months.

Here’s a look at just February 2009 and February 2010:

Compared to exactly a year ago, South King’s share of the sales held pretty steady, but two percentage points shifted from the mid-range Seattle region to the more expensive Eastside.

The result of this shift on the median price is likely to be a median in February 2010 that is slightly higher than the February 2009 median, even if every house were to have held completely steady in price during the year. In other words, February’s 0.5% YOY median price decline was probably a slight understatement of how much the prices of homes in King County have dropped in the last year.

Lastly, here’s an updated look at this same set of data all the way back through 2000:

The big spike in sales in the low-priced South King region during the bubble years followed by a notable post-bubble increase in sales in the close-in Seattle region fits nicely with my theory that many home sales in the outlying regions were driven primarily by people jumping into the first place they could afford because they were afraid of being priced out of the market forever.

Now that prices getting more reasonable and people are realizing that buying real estate is not a sure-fire way to effortless riches through endless double-digit appreciation, people are buying where they really want to live long term.

The post Declines in King’s Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here’s what the YOY median price breakdown looks like at the region level:

SW King: -12.8%
SE King: -11.1%
Seattle: +1.4%
N. King: -17.2%
Eastside: +1.0%

See what I mean? Outside of Seattle proper and the Eastside, median prices still seem to be falling quite fast. Eric Pryne at the Seattle Times noticed this as well, making it the focus of his report last week.

In order to explore this further, I have taken the February data from the NWMLS and plugged it into a Tableau map. Unfortunately, Tableau does not let you draw arbitrary boundary lines, so for the full map of the NWMLS areas with the boundary lines drawn, you’ll have to go here.

Hit the jump for the interactive map.

With just three and six closed sales, Vashon and Mercer Islands saw the most extreme swings in their respective median prices, falling 38% on Vashon and rising a whopping 124% on Mercer. Most of the other neighborhoods around King County fell within a more normal range, with the exception of the Capitol Hill area, where the median shot up over 45%. That could be because last year that area saw just 17 sales in February.

Ten of thirty areas saw YOY gains in their median prices. The average gain among those ten was 22% (skewed high by Mercer), and the median gain was 6.4%.

Of the twenty areas that saw YOY declines in their median price, the average loss was -12.2%, and the median was -13.2%. In other words, in the neighborhoods where prices are still falling, they tend to still be falling pretty fast.

The post Median Prices Still Crashing in Some Neighborhoods appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As usual, courtesy Tableau Software (available free to use online), the neighborhoods SAAS update is rocking sweet interactive data visualizations. Click a region or a neighborhood to filter the charts below or get details on a specific point.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS moved further above the “balanced” level, moving up to 2.35 in January (December was 2.10). Only 3 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets, 23 of 30 came in above 2.25 as a buyer’s market, and the remaining 4 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Only four areas came in as stronger buyers’ markets than January 2009: Downtown Seattle condos (701), Renton / Benson Hill (340), Jovita / West Hill Auburn (100), and Burien / Normandy Park (130).

Regional History

Most neighborhoods continued to rise from December to January, after bottoming out (likely thanks to the tax credit) in November.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Renton / Benson Hill (340) at 5.1, Kirkland / Bridle Trails (560) at 4.3, and Mercer Island (510) at 3.6.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Queen Anne / Magnolia (700) at 1.2, North Seattle (710) at 1.5, and Eastside south of I-90 (500) at 1.7.

The post January Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As usual, courtesy Tableau Software (available free to use online soon!), the neighborhoods SAAS update is rocking sweet interactive data visualizations.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS jumped back above the “balanced” level, coming in at 2.10 for December (November was 1.52). 9 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets, 12 of 30 came in above 2.25 as a buyer’s market, and the remaining 9 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Only a few areas came in as stronger buyers’ markets than December 2008, with 11 markets flipping from buyers’ markets last year to sellers’ markets this year.

Regional History

Lots of neighborhoods ticked up from November to December, despite the seasonal adjustment inherent in the SAAS calculation. The fake expiration of the tax credit is probably to blame there.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 4.8, Jovita / West Hill Auburn (100) at 4.0, and Des Moines / Redondo (120) at 3.8.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Queen Anne / Magnolia (700) at 1.3, Skyway (360) at 1.4, and West Bellevue (510) at 1.5.

The post December Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As usual, the sweet interactive data visualizations (new and improved!) in today’s post come to you courtesy Tableau Software.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS continued to drop below the “balanced” level, coming in at 1.59 for October (September was 1.80). 18 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets (over half for the first time in recent years), Only 1 of 30 came in above 2.25 as a buyer’s market, and the remaining 11 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

120 (Des Moines) is the only region that came in as a convincing buyer’s market, with an SAAS of 2.9.

Regional History

Not surprisingly, the recent decline in SAAS has been felt pretty much all across King County.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Des Moines / Redondo (120) at 2.9, Kirkland / Bridle Trails (560) at 2.1, and Black Diamond / Maple Valley (320) at 2.1.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Juanita / Woodinville (600) at 1.2, Jovita / West Hill Auburn (100) at 1.3, and Redmond / Carnation (550) at 1.3.

The post October Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As usual, the sweet interactive data visualizations (new and improved!) in today’s post come to you courtesy Tableau Software.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS dropped further below the “balanced” level, coming in at 1.80 for September (August was 1.88). 11 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets, 5 of 30 came in above 2.25 as buyer’s markets, and the remaining 14 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Downtown Seattle condos still stick out like a bit of a sore thumb, coming in with an SAAS above 3.

Regional History

Most regions again saw declining SAAS values from August to September, probably due to the increasing number of sales that are being spurred by the tax credit. Further evidence that the tax credit may be heating up the market can be found in the fact that some of the cheapest parts of the county (down in the south) are seeing the largest drops in their SAAS.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 3.1, Enumclaw (300) at 2.4, and Central Seattle (380) at 2.4.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Vashon Island (800) at 1.3, East Bellevue (530) at 1.4, and East Lake Sammamish (540), at 1.5.

The post September Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Methodology
The prices quoted below are for a 3-bed, 2-bath single-family homes with 1,750 to 2,000 square feet. For the rentals, these are based on actual houses I found currently on the rental market. For the sales, I used sale records of actual prices that people have paid in the last three months. Where possible, I have located multiple samples that match the description above and taken the average price.

To calculate the monthly payment (principal + interest only), I’ll be using a 5.15% interest rate (roughly the average over the last three months), (generously) assuming 20% down on a 30-year mortgage. Keep in mind that the true cost of buying also includes insurance, taxes, maintenance, and a host of other costs generally not paid by a renter. For a more detailed breakdown of the total costs (and tax benefits) of buying, hit up this 2007 post.

I have also indicated the price to rent ratio, which is simply the home price divided by the total rent paid in a year.

According to a table of data from Fortune Magazine, Seattle’s price-to-rent ratio just before the local peak in prices was at 38.0, compared to a 15-year average of 23.3. In our table above, the average price-to-rent ratio for a 3-bed, 2-bath home in a handful of Seattle-area neighborhoods comes out to 24.3. Unfortunately, the two are not directly comparable since Forbes’ calculation included houses, condos, and apartments all among the rentals (which would drive the rental prices lower and the long-term average price-to-rent ratio higher), while my data was drawn only from single-family homes.

While home prices have come down some since I first researched the rent vs. buy discussion in detail back in 2007, a growing oversupply of repartmenting condos and accidental landlords is also pushing down rents recently, so the price-to-rent ratio hasn’t actually changed as much as one might expect.

Overall, price-to-rent ratios in the low-to-mid 20s still seems a bit high. Not crazy out of control bubble high, but it still looks like there is room for a bit more correction. Especially when you consider that the current prices are being artificially propped up by unnaturally low interest rates and the $8,000 tax credit in the midst of nearly 10% unemployment and a local economic scene that has yet to show any clear signs of turning the corner.

* [Updated, see comment #71 below.]

The post Rent vs. Buy Comparisons: Have the excesses been removed? appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As usual, the sweet interactive data visualizations in today’s post come to you courtesy Tableau Software.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

With new listings continuing to wane, King County’s overall SAAS finally dropped below the “balanced” level, coming in at 1.88 for August (July was 2.01). 10 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets, 7 of 30 came in above 2.25 as buyer’s markets, and the remaining 13 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Other than downtown condos, Seattle proper had the strongest showing last month for Sellers, with five of its eight areas coming in below 2.0.

Regional History

Most regions saw declining SAAS values from July to August, probably because people aren’t listing their homes as summer winds down unless they absolutely need to sell.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 3.8, Enumclaw (300) at 2.8, and Des Moines / Redondo (120) at 2.7.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Vashon Island (800), Queen Anne / Magnolia (700), and Richmond Beach / Shoreline (715), all tied at about 1.5.

The post August Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As of August, this is where the median prices were for our regions:

• low end (South Co.): $144,000—$343,250
• mid range (Seattle / North Co.): $302,000—$573,000
• high end (Eastside): $400,000—$915,000

It is interesting to note that no NWMLS area had a median above $1,000,000 in August.

The following chart shows the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

Here’s how much of the total sales each of our three regions accounted for in July:

• low end (South Co.): 32.5% of sales
• mid range (Seattle / North Co.): 37.6% of sales
• high end (Eastside): 29.9% of sales

The low-priced region (South King Co.) has been creeping back up the last couple of months. This could be due to the $8,000 tax credit that will expire at the end of November, which is likely much more of an incentive for low-end buyers than for middle or high-end buyers, who are usually not first-time home buyers.

Here’s a close-up of this year’s movement in bar-chart format:

It will be interesting to see how long the low-end region gains ground. I suspect that we may see a bit of a spike in November as people move to take advantage of the tax credit at the last minute, but as we move toward the end of the year and into 2010, we will begin to see the low-end sales taper off again, leading to another upward tick in the median price. Meanwhile, I suspect that Case-Shiller may remain mostly flat through the summer, based on the geographic shifts in sales and the reported county-wide median.

The post Geographic Sales Shifts: South County Gains Back Some Ground appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Yet again, the sweet interactive data visualizations in today’s post come to you courtesy Tableau Software.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS dipped ever so slightly in July, coming in pretty much right on a “balanced” market again at 2.01 (June was 2.06). 6 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets, 11 of 30 came in above 2.25 as buyer’s markets, and the remaining 14 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Southeast King and the Eastside were more or less tied as the best regions for buyers, with SAAS in each averaging about 2.4.

Regional History

July was a mixed bag, as SAAS increased from June in some neighborhoods, but decreased in others.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Vashon Island (800) at 4.3, Enumclaw (300) at 4.0, and downtown Seattle condos (701) at 3.8.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were U District / Wedgewood / Lake City (710) at 1.2, Skyway (360) at 1.4, and east Bellevue (530) at 1.5.

The post July Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As of July, this is where the median prices were for our regions:

• low end (South Co.): $227,500—$324,712
• mid range (Seattle / North Co.): $282,750—$566,000
• high end (Eastside): $392,500—$1,060,500

The following chart shows the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

Here’s how much of the total sales each of our three regions accounted for in July:

• low end (South Co.): 31.3% of sales
• mid range (Seattle / North Co.): 38.6% of sales
• high end (Eastside): 30.2% of sales

The mid-priced region (Seattle) continued to take up a larger-than-usual portion of the sales in July, with the low and high-priced regions see-sawing again, but to a lesser degree than the dramatic spike seen from May to June.

Here’s a close-up of this year’s movement in bar-chart format:

I suspect that as we continue to see prices fall, there will be a continuing pattern of more sales in the close-in Seattle neighborhoods. When homes became too ridiculously expensive during the bubble, many people employed the “drive ’til you qualify” tactic when purchasing. Now that prices are coming back down to earth, it would appear that the strategy has shifted to “wait until the neighborhood you want to buy in falls into your price range.”

The post Geographic Sales Shifts: Seattle Still Pulling More Sales appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Yet again, the sweet interactive data visualizations in today’s post come to you courtesy Tableau Software.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS dipped again in June, coming in just barely in “buyer’s market” territory at 2.06. For all practical purposes, the market was pretty much balanced between buyers and sellers in June. 4 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets, 15 of 30 came in above 2.25 as buyer’s markets, and the remaining 11 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Southeast King actually came in with the strongest showing for buyers last month, which should come as no surprise given what we saw when we broke down the sales patterns on a geographic basis earlier in the month.

Regional History

Seasonally-adjusted active supply decreased again in most neighborhoods from May to June. Most of the exceptions to this pattern came in Southeast King.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 4.0, West Bellevue (520) at 3.6, and Enumclaw (300) at 3.5.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Ballard / Greenlake / Greenwood at 1.3, Jovita / West Hill Auburn (100) at 1.5, and U District / Wedgewood / Lake City (710) at 1.6.

The post June Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In brief, the median price is simply the middle point—the home sale which saw half the remaining sales come in at a higher price, and half at a lower price. It is a better measure than the mean (average), since it is not disproportionately affected when a single extremely high or extremely low-priced home is sold.

For example, consider the following over-simplified scenario: Three homes are sold in month A: one for $200,000, one for $350,000, and one for $500,000. The mean and the median are both $350,000. In month B, one home sells for $200,000, one for $350,000, and one for $3,000,000. In month B, the median is still $350,000, but the mean shoots up to $1,183,333, which is obviously not very representative of the market.

Unfortunately, the median has its own shortcomings, they’re just harder to conceptualize. Consider another scenario: City Q has three very distinct neighborhoods. In Neighborhood X, every home sells for $200,000. In Neighborhood Y, every home sells for $350,000. In Neighborhood Z, every home sells for $500,000. In month A, two homes sell in X, two in Y, and two in Z. The median price is $350,000. In month B, only one home sells in X, one in Y, and four in Z. Now the median price is $500,000. Did every house in City Q shoot up in value over 40% in one month? Of course not.

While the actual numbers in the Seattle area are obviously more nuanced than that, we are almost certainly seeing the same effect coming into play with some of the recent fluctuations in the median price.

In order to explore this concept, I have again broken King County down into three regions:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of June’s data:

• low end: $229,800—$366,975
• mid range: $301,250—$490,000
• high end: $450,000—$1,175,000

In the following chart I have plotted the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

The mid-priced region has remained relatively stable over the past year, varying by about 5 percentage points. The high and low-priced regions are a much different story. Just since January, the low-priced region’s share of monthly sales has dropped from 38.9% to 29.3% while the high-priced region has risen from 24.8% to 30.6%.

Here’s a close-up of this year’s movement in bar-chart format to better visualize the shift:

This kind of shift will obviously push the median price higher, as it’s essentially just a larger-scale version of the second hypothetical scenario I described above. It goes a long way toward explaining why the median price jumped 4.4% from March to April, but the Case-Shiller index (which uses same-house sale pairs) rose just 0.2%.

I also find it interesting to look at this same set of data all the way back through 2000:

In the pre-bubble years of 2000 and 2001, the split was nearly even with about one third of the sales taking place in each region. As the bubble really heated up from 2004 through 2006, sales shifted noticeably toward the low-priced south county region, which would seem to indicate that the median was probably understating home price gains throughout much of the bubble years.

In the final full year of Seattle’s housing bubble (2006), here’s how the sales broke down:

• low end: 37.3%
• mid range: 32.8%
• high end: 29.9%

And here’s where it sits as of June 2009:

• low end: 29.3% (down 8.0 points)
• mid range: 40.1% (up 7.3 points)
• high end: 30.6% (up 0.7 points)

As the sales distribution continues to shift away from the low-priced areas and into the mid and high-priced regions, we will likely continue to see some hidden skewing in the median.

The post Median Price Still Being Distorted by Geographic Shifts in Sales appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Yet again, the sweet interactive data visualizations in today’s post come to you courtesy Tableau Software.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS dipped slightly in May, from April’s 2.9, but remained slightly in “buyer’s market” territory at 2.3.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Only eight of thirty neighborhoods were in “seller’s market” territory in May, none of which were located on the Eastside.

Regional History

Seasonally-adjusted active supply decreased in most neighborhoods from April to May, as one would expect due to the seasonal nature of the real estate market. Jovita / West Hill Auburn (100) and Des Moines / Redondo (120) were notable exceptions.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Vashon Island (800) at 5.2, Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 4.9, and Kirkland–Bridle Trails (560) and Mercer Island (510) tied at 4.1.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Central Seattle SW / Beacon Hill (385) at 1.4, Lake Forest Park / Kenmore (720) at 1.6, and Dash Point / Federal Way (110) at 1.7.

The post May Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Unfortunately, due to a change in definition by the NWMLS last July, the number of active listings will be lower than a year ago, while the number of pending sales will be higher, causing the months of supply to be lower than it would otherwise have been.

Summary

April MOS for King County as a whole dipped down further into so-called “seller’s market” territory at 4.5.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood. Again, take the below comparison with a giant grain of salt, since the NWMLS has changed the way they count listings and pendings since last year. As an example of how this data may be skewed, if there were 6,000 active listings last year (300 of which—5%—were “subject to inspection”) and 1,000 pending sales, we would have had 6.0 months of supply. However, this year under the new counting method, the same scenario would result in 5,700 active listings and 1,300 pending sales (300 being “pending inspection”), giving us 4.4 months of supply—27% lower.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Even with the change, most of the Eastside remains above 6 months of supply, while most of the other neighborhoods around King have dropped below 6.

Regional History

Months of supply decreased again in most neighborhoods from March to April, matching the normal seasonal pattern. Just nine of thirty neighborhoods remained in “buyer’s market” territory.

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper dropped further into “seller’s market” territory at 3.7, while the Eastside as a whole dropped as well, but remained a “buyer’s market” at 6.2.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Enumclaw (300) at 11.3, Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 10.8, and Kirkland–Bridle Trails (560) at 9.9.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Central Seattle SW / Beacon Hill (385) at 2.3, Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 2.4, and North Seattle (710) at 2.7.

The post April Neighborhoods Months of Supply Interactive Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here’s your look at March’s “Months of Supply” for the 30 NWMLS areas in King County. For an explanation of what months of supply means, please refer to the original neighborhood MOS breakdown post. Also, view a map of these areas here.

March MOS for King County as a whole dipped down into so-called “seller’s market” territory at 5.70 (compared to 6.19 for March 2008). The record run of county-wide 6+ MOS has ended at eighteen months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the thirteen-month period of March 2008 through March 2009. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). The charts all have the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right.

Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0. It is also important to remember that whatever the reason, over twenty-five percent of pending sales are not making it to closing, which means that these statistics are likely overstating the magnitude of the “seller’s market.”

We’ll start off with the chart that lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. March 2008 is in red, and 2009 is in blue.

Following below are the breakouts for SW King, SE King, Seattle, N King, and the Eastside, as well as a summary of this month’s data.

Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

Months of supply decreased in most neighborhoods from February to March, which is the usual pattern as we move from winter to spring. Twelve neighborhoods remained in “buyer’s market” territory, while eighteen are now “seller’s markets.”

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper dropped well into “seller’s market” territory at 4.5, while the Eastside as a whole dropped slightly, but remained a “buyer’s market” at 8.4.

Only eight of thirty neighborhoods trended more toward a buyer’s market than a year ago. Four neighborhoods still came in above 10 MOS (two fewer than last month), firmly in buyer’s market territory.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Mercer Island (510) at 21.3, Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 15.2, and Kirkland–Bridle Trails (560) at 13.3. Along with the county-wide stats breaking their 18-month streak of 6+, 520 also broke its 18-month streak of 10+ MOS, falling to 8.8.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 2.8, and North Seattle (710) at 3.1, and Central Seattle SW / Beacon Hill (385) at 3.6.

The post March Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here’s your look at February’s “Months of Supply” for the 30 NWMLS areas in King County. For an explanation of what months of supply means, please refer to the original neighborhood MOS breakdown post. Also, view a map of these areas here.

February MOS for King County as a whole dipped slightly down to 7.54 (compared to 6.14 for February 2008). The record run of 6+ MOS is now eighteen months. Recall that the previous record was around 6 months in the winter of ’94-’95.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the thirteen-month period of February 2008 through February 2009. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). The charts all have the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right.

Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0. It is also important to remember that whatever the reason, over twenty-five percent of pending sales are not making it to closing, which means that these statistics are likely understating the magnitude of the “buyer’s market.”

We’ll start off with the chart that lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. February 2008 is in red, and 2009 is in blue.

Following below are the breakouts for SW King, SE King, Seattle, N King, and the Eastside, as well as a summary of this month’s data.

Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

February’s month-to-month trend for months of supply was all over the board across King County, with some increasing and some decreasing in a seemingly random fashion. The only apparent pattern in the data was a steep decline in MOS in most of the southeast King neighborhoods. Median prices in all seven of these neighborhoods are comfortably below the county-wide median, so this could be a sign of an uptick in buying activity in the lower price ranges.

Five neighborhoods registered as “sellers’ markets” with under 6.0 MOS in February—West Seattle (140), Black Diamond / Maple Valley (320), Ballard (705), North Seattle (710), and Shoreline (715).

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper dropped slightly again, but is still in “buyer’s market” territory at 6.2 in January. The Eastside as a whole inched up to 11.5.

Nine of thirty neighborhoods trended more toward a seller’s market than a year ago. Six neighborhoods were above 10 MOS (the same number as last month), firmly in buyer’s market territory.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Mercer Island (510) at 15.8, East Side–South of I-90 (500) at 14.9, and Kirkland–Bridle Trails (560) at 13.1. While not in the top three, 520 extended its 10+ MOS streak, now at 18 months.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were the same as January: Shoreline (715) at 4.5, Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 4.6, and North Seattle (710) at 4.8.

The post February Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

While we have had regular monthly updates on the county-wide median prices, we haven’t really taken a look at the price breakdowns by neighborhood for a while. Let’s check in on the total drop in median prices by neighborhood.

The chart below shows the total drop in the single-family median price from the peak month to the lowest month to date for each of 29 NWMLS neighborhoods (701—Downtown Seattle excluded, see a map here).

Note that the peak months ranged from January to November 2007. For the price troughs came in February for 11 areas, in January for 9 areas, in October through December in 8 areas, and in June for Area 550 (Redmond, Carnation).

The largest drops so far have been in Mercer Island (510) and Medina/Clyde Hill/West Bellevue (520) tied at 52%, Skyway (360) at 54%, and Vashon Island (800) at 55% off.

The smallest drops so far have been in Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 24%, Black Diamond/Maple Valley (320) at 23%, and East Bellevue (530) at 22% off.

It’s interesting that at 22% off, the county-wide drop from the peak is equal to the smallest drop that has been seen to date in any individual neighborhood. Due to the low volume of closed sales in individual neighborhoods, the median price tends to fluctuate more than it does county-wide. When comparing the individual peaks to February 2009, 8 neighborhoods have dropped 22% or less.

Does a median price drop of 50% off or more in a neighborhood mean that most houses in that neighborhood have had their values drop 50%? Probably not. But it is definitely more likely that houses in such neighborhoods have dropped in price considerably more than those in neighborhoods with only a 20% drop.

The post Median Prices Down Over 50% in Parts of King appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

January MOS for King County as a whole backed down from December’s record high, coming in at 7.77 (compared to 7.54 for January 2008), bringing the record run of 6+ MOS to seventeen months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of February 2008 through January 2009. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). I had been trying to keep the graphs on the same vertical scale, but with MOS skyrocketing in a handful of areas in the Eastside and Vashon, I gave up on that. The charts still all have the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right.

Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0. It is also important to remember that whatever the reason, over twenty-five percent of pending sales are not making it to closing, which means that these statistics are likely understating the magnitude of the “buyer’s market.”

We’ll start off with the chart that lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. January 2008 is in red, and 2009 is in blue.

Following below are the breakouts for SW King, SE King, Seattle, N King, and the Eastside, as well as a summary of this month’s data.

Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

Months of supply generally declined in most areas across King County, with six neighborhoods registering as “sellers’ markets” with under 6.0 MOS—Jovita/West Hill Auburn (110), Renton Highlands / Kennydale (350), Beacon Hill (385), Ballard (705), North Seattle (710), and Shoreline (715).

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper also backed off slightly, but remained in “buyer’s market” territory at 6.51 in January. The Eastside as a whole dropped three points down to 10.14.

Fifteen of thirty neighborhoods trended more toward a seller’s market than a year ago. Six neighborhoods were above 10 MOS (compared to 12 last month), firmly in buyer’s market territory.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Mercer Island (510) at 46.0 (no that’s not a typo—there were only 3 pending sales on the entire island), Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 14.2, and Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 12.7. 520 yet again extended its 10+ MOS streak, now at 17 months.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were: Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 4.5, North Seattle (710) at 4.6, and Shoreline (715) at 4.8.

The post January Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

December MOS for King County as a whole came in at yet another record-high 9.56 (compared to 7.54 for December 2007 and 8.75 for November), bringing the record run of 6+ MOS to sixteen months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of January 2008 through December 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). I had been trying to keep the graphs on the same vertical scale, but with MOS skyrocketing in a handful of areas in the Eastside and Vashon, I gave up on that. The charts still all have the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right.

Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0. Also keep in mind that whatever the reason, pending sales have become increasingly disconnected from closed sales recently, which means that these statistics are likely understating the magnitude of the “buyer’s market.”

We’ll start off with the chart that lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. December 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

Following below are the breakouts for SW King, SE King, Seattle, N King, and the Eastside, as well as a summary of this month’s data.

Note: Area 100 (Jovita/West Hill Auburn) was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

In December only one area in King County registered as a “seller’s market” with under 6.0 MOS—705 (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood). Even 710 (NE Seattle: Wedgewood, Lake City, etc.) finally edged over 6, coming in at 6.22.

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper continued to push further into buyer’s market territory, coming in at 7.59 in December. The Eastside as a whole shot back up again month-to-month to a new record high of 13.04.

Six of thirty neighborhoods trended more toward a seller’s market than a year ago. Twelve neighborhoods were above 10 MOS, firmly in buyer’s market territory (one more than last month).

The three toughest markets for sellers were Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 29.22 (over two years), Mercer Island (510) at 25.80, and Vashon Island at 19.67. 520 continues its 10+ MOS streak, now at 16 months. Psst… Hey Bill… bet you can drive some pretty hard bargains right about now if you’re looking to expand your estate…

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were: Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 5.44, North Seattle (710) at 6.22, and Jovita/West Hill Auburn (100) at 6.84. The “best markets for sellers” list is starting to seem like a “most slender hippopotamus” contest or something…

The post December Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

September MOS for King County as a whole came in at 6.57 (compared to 7.21 for September 2007 and 6.80 for August), bringing the current run to thirteen months—three times the previous record in the winter of 1994-1995.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of October 2007 through September 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right, so they can be easily compared.

Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0.

Note: Area 100 (Jovita/West Hill Auburn) was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

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Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

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Note: Area 800 (Vashon Island) was over 17 in September, and has been clipped.

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Note: MOS in area 520 (Medina, W. Bellevue) was over 19 in August, and has been clipped.

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Ten of thirty King County areas were in seller’s market territory in September, ranging from 4.35 MOS in 705 (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood) to 5.96 MOS in 300 (Enumclaw). The city of Seattle continued to be the strongest region overall, with four of eight areas coming in below 6 MOS.

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper increased slightly from 5.02 in August to 5.13 in September, down from 5.81 in September 2007. The Eastside as a whole decreased month-to-month to 8.03 MOS, up just barely from September 2007’s 7.97.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. September 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

Click to enlarge

Breaking from the recent pattern, seventeen of thirty neighborhoods actually trended more toward a seller’s market than a year ago. Some of these are still in buyer’s market territory, but six areas swung from a buyer’s market in September 2007 to a seller’s market in September 2008. This was likely due largely to the spike in pending sales that we mentioned in the main NWMLS roundup. The most dramatic of these swings was in area 340 (Renton–Benson Hill), which went from 14.3 MOS last year to 5.7 this year.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Vashon Island (800) at 17.86, Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 12.31, and Mercer Island (510) at 11.29. 520 continues its 10+ MOS streak, now at 13 months.

North Seattle neighborhoods continue to hold their title as the strongest markets in which to sell a home. The three best markets for sellers as of last month were the same as the last two months: Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 4.35, North Seattle (710) at 4.48, and West Seattle (140) at 4.61.

The post September Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

August MOS for King County came in at 6.80 (compared to 4.92 for August 2007 and 7.21 for September), bringing the current run to a full year (vs. the previous record of 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995).

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of September 2007 through August 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right, so they can be easily compared.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

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Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

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Note: MOS in area 520 (Medina, W. Bellevue) was over 19 in August, and has been clipped.

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A handful of neighborhoods scattered throughout the county were seller’s markets in August. Even in the recently strong city of Seattle, four of eight areas were buyer’s markets in August.

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper decreased slightly from 5.06 in July to 5.02 in August, up from 3.65 in August 2007. The Eastside as a whole increased to 8.4 MOS, well over August 2007’s 5.2.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. August 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

Click to enlarge

Yet again, even the neighborhoods that remain in “seller’s market” territory were trending more toward a buyer’s market than last year.  The single exception is area Dash Point / Federal Way (110), where MOS went from 6.5 last year to 5.6 this year.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 15.76, Enumclaw (300) at 11.31, and Mercer Island (510) at 11.06. 520 has now been over 10 MOS for a full year.  I guess Bill Gates just isn’t buying property like he used to.

North Seattle neighborhoods continue to hold their title as the strongest markets in which to sell a home. The three best markets for sellers as of last month were the same as last month: North Seattle (710) at 3.74, Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 4.09, and West Seattle (140) at 4.57.

The post August Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Remember: Over 6 MOS is a buyer’s market, which gives buyers more negotiating power, but doesn’t mean homes are priced attractively for buyers or that it’s a good time to buy. Before this year, the longest that King County as a whole has sustained a MOS above 6 was 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995. July MOS for King County came in at 6.62 (compared to 4.06 for July 2007), bringing the current run to eleven months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of August 2007 through July 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right, so they can be easily compared.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

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Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

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Note: Area 520 MOS was over 19 in July, and has been clipped.

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Not a single neighborhood outside the Seattle city limits was a seller’s market in July. The city of Seattle seems to be the last holdout of home sellers in King County, with only two areas in the city coming in as buyer’s markets, 700 (Queen Anne / Magnolia) and 701 (Downtown Condos).

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper increased from 4.6 in June to 5.1 in July, up from 3.0 in July 2007. The Eastside as a whole shot up to just under 8.0 MOS, nearly double July 2007’s 4.2.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. July 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

Click to enlarge

Every area was more of a buyer’s market in July than it was at this time last year.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 19.47 (yikes!), Enumclaw (300) at 12.31, and Vashon Island (800) at 12.27. 520 is now just one month away from a one-year streak of 10+ MOS.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 3.91, North Seattle (710) at 4.20, and West Seattle (140) at 4.83. Seeing West Seattle on that list is a particular surprise, given the number of flops we’ve seen in that neighborhood in recent months.

The post July Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Remember: Over 6 MOS is a buyer’s market, which gives buyers more negotiating power, but doesn’t mean homes are priced attractively for buyers or that it’s a good time to buy. Before this year, the longest that King County as a whole has sustained a MOS above 6 was 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995. June MOS for King County came in at 6.04 (compared to 3.50 for June 2007), bringing the current run to ten months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the eleven-month period of July 2007 through June 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right, so they can be easily compared.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

Click to enlarge

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Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

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Outside of the Seattle city limits, only areas 720 (Lake Forest Park / Kenmore) and 530 (East Bellevue) were seller’s markets. Within the city of Seattle, only three of eight areas were buyer’s markets: 385 (Beacon Hill), 700 (Queen Anne / Magnolia), and 701 (Downtown Condos). Last month six neighborhoods in King County were below 6.0 MOS. This month there were seven.

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper dropped from 5.2 in May to 4.6 in June, up from 2.6 in June 2007. The Eastside also saw overall MOS drop, but stayed in buyer’s market territory with 6.5 MOS.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. June 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

Click to enlarge

Yet again, every area was more of a buyer’s market in June than it was at this time last year, with MOS doubling in many regions.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Enumclaw (300) at 10.79, Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 10.57, and Vashon Island (800) at 8.92. 520 is now in its tenth straight month of 10+ MOS.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 3.17, North Seattle (710) at 3.32, and East Bellevue (530) at 4.31.

The post June Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Remember: Over 6 MOS is a buyer’s market, which gives buyers more negotiating power, but doesn’t mean homes are priced attractively for buyers or that it’s a good time to buy. Before this year, the longest that King County as a whole has sustained a MOS above 6 was 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995. May MOS for King County came in at 6.97 (up 0.76 points from April), bringing the current run to nine months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the ten-month period of July 2007 through May 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red, so they can be easily compared.

Unfortunately I haven’t yet gotten the fancy color-coded maps ready, but I did make some improvements to the enhanced area map, which can now be found on this page. My goal is to have interactive color-coded maps for next month’s neighborhood update post.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

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Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

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Nothing too surprising in this month’s data. The North Seattle neighborhoods that make up 705 and 710 (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood, Lake City, Northgate, Wedgewood, etc.) continue to show unusual resilience, coming in at 3.81 and 4.00 MOS. Last month eleven neighborhoods were below 6.0 MOS. This month only six hold that title.

Seattle proper’s collective MOS continues to come in below 6.0, but not by much. Last month it crept up to 5.18, still more than twice what it was a year prior at 2.35.

Last month there were six neighborhoods with excessive MOS over 10.0, with three of those coming on the Eastside. As a whole, the Eastside is still a tough place to be selling a home, with a collective MOS of 8.33, and only one area below 6.0 MOS (550: Redmond, Carnation), and all other areas coming in higher than the county-wide average.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. May 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

Click to enlarge

Every area was more of a buyer’s market in April than it was at this time last year, with MOS doubling in many regions.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 13.70, Jovita/West Hill Auburn (100) at 11.05, and Vashon Island (800) at 10.82. 520 continues to make records, now in its ninth straight month of 10+ MOS.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 3.81, North Seattle (710) at 4.00, and Redmond / Carnation (550) at 4.71. Ballard: the pink pony’s last stand.

The post May Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Remember: Over 6 MOS is a buyer’s market, which gives buyers more negotiating power, but doesn’t mean homes are priced attractively for buyers or that it’s a good time to buy. Before this year, the longest that King County as a whole has sustained a MOS above 6 was 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995. April MOS for King County came in at 6.21 (up slightly from March), bringing the current run to eight months. In seven of the last eight years, March has been the low point for MOS (2003 was the exception, when MOS bottomed in July). It seems unlikely that the county-wide MOS will drop back below six this year.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the nine-month period of July 2007 through March 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red, so they can be easily compared.

For a description of which neighborhoods each area encompasses, as well as a map of the areas and a link to the source data, visit this page.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

Click to enlarge

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Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

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The best markets for sellers are yet again found in North Seattle areas 705 and 710 (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood, Lake City, Northgate, Wedgewood, etc.), with 3.68 and 3.39 MOS respectively. No other areas were below 4 MOS, but 9 more areas fell between 4 and 6 MOS (weak sellers markets). The Seattle city limits as a whole continue to be a bad place to be buying a home, with a collective MOS of just 4.84. Seattle continues to trend toward a buyer’s market though, with MOS up from 4.54 last month, and this April having over twice as many months of supply as last April, which had just 2.18 MOS.

I discovered an error in my spreadsheet for the downtown condo market, where I had been recording only new listings instead of total listings, which as you can see in the Seattle graph, makes quite a difference. The downtown condo market is clearly a buyer’s market at 6.79 MOS, but it’s down considerably from the peak in December, when there was over ten months of supply.

A few more south King County neighborhoods slipped back into seller’s market territory, but seven of eleven still came in with MOS higher than the county aggregate. Despite/due to having some of the region’s highest prices, the Eastside is still a lousy place to be trying to sell a home right now, with a collective MOS of 7.78 (up from 7.38 in March), and 7 of 8 areas coming in with MOS above the county as a whole. Area 530 (East Bellevue, West Redmond) is the only Eastside holdout for sellers, with an MOS of 5.25 (up from 4.59 in March).

All three of the best markets for buyers were on the Eastside: Area 500 (East Side–South of I-90), 520 (Medina, Clyde Hill, W. Bellevue), and 560 (Kirkland–Bridle Trails). With 11.07 MOS, Area 520 (Medina, Clyde Hill, W. Bellevue) continues to hold the dubious distinction of having the longest-running 10+ MOS streak, now in its eighth month.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to one year ago’s value. April 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

Click to enlarge

Whoa now, what’s going on in area 360? Last year it had 8.0 MOS, and this year it’s dropped to 5.5? Quite odd, but when there are never more than a few dozen sales each month, it’s not too surprising to see strange swings like that. This is why I generally prefer to look at county-wide data to assess overall trends. More data means its less suceptible to bizarre bounces. Other than area 360, every other area was more of a buyer’s market in April than it was at this time last year.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were North Seattle (710) at 3.39, Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 3.68, and Renton Highlands/Kennydale (350) at 4.35. 11 out of 30 areas county-wide came in below 6 MOS. The three best markets for buyers were Kirkland–Bridle Trails (560) at 11.81, Medina/Clyde Hill/W. Bellevue (520) at 11.07, and the East Side South of I-90 (500) at 9.40.

The post April Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Remember our metric: less than 6 MOS is a sellers market and above 6 is a buyer’s market, meaning that buyers have better negotiating power, not that homes are necessarily priced attractively for buyers. Before this year, the longest that King County as a whole has sustained a MOS above 6 was 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995. March MOS for King County came in at 6.19 (slightly higher than February), bringing the current run to seven months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the nine-month period of July 2007 through March 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red, so they can be easily compared.

For a description of which neighborhoods each area encompasses, as well as a map of the areas and a link to the source data, visit this page.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

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Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

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The best markets for sellers continue to be North Seattle areas 705 and 710 (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood, Lake City, Northgate, Wedgewood, etc.), with 3.38 and 3.86 MOS respectively. One other area dropped slighly below 4 MOS, area 720 (Lake Forest Park, Kenmore) with 3.95 MOS. The Seattle city limits as a whole are definitely still the worst place for buyers, with a collective MOS of just 4.52. However, even Seattle is trending strongly toward a buyer’s market, as this March saw over twice as many months of supply as last March, which had just 1.85 MOS.

The condo supply and demand situation downtown took a sudden turn in favor of buyers, with MOS shooting from 2.21 in February to 6.02 in March. Again though, I would take the condo statistics with a grain of salt, considering how many new construction condos never make it onto the MLS.

Ten of eleven neighborhoods in south King County remain firmly in buyer’s market territory, with MOS also coming in higher than the county aggregate. The Eastside still doesn’t look too good for sellers, with a collective MOS of 7.38, and 6 of 8 areas coming in with MOS above the county as a whole.

Mercer Island took a sudden turn, as new listings flatlined and a few dozen sales cleared out a bit of the standing inventory, pushing MOS way down from last month’s staggering 13.18 all the way into seller’s market territory at 5.10. Vashon dropped as well, but remained well into buyer’s market territory at 9.44 MOS. Bill Gates’ stomping grounds in Area 520 (Medina, Clyde Hill, W. Bellevue) continues to be one of the toughest places to sell, with 13.76 MOS, it earns the distinction of being the only area to exceed 10 MOS for seven months now.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to one year ago’s value. March 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

Click to enlarge

There is still not a single area that isn’t more of a buyer’s market than this time last year. Again, only one area had less than double last year’s MOS, this time it was area 720 (Lake Forest Park, Kenmore), which increased from 2.21 to 3.95.

The three strongest areas as of last month were Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 3.38, North Seattle (710) at 3.86, and Lake Forest Park/Kenmore (720) at 3.95. Slightly fewer areas were in seller’s market territory last month, just 10 out of 30 areas county-wide came in below 6 MOS. The three weakest areas were Enumclaw (300) at 14.22, Medina/Clyde Hill/W. Bellevue (520) at 13.76, and Jovita/West Hill Auburn (100) at 9.65.

The post March Neighborhood Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The median price is a decent indicator of the general direction of home prices, but it definitely has shortcomings. The biggest problem is that the median is largely influenced by the mix of sales between high and low-value houses. In a relatively stable housing market, when the mix stays somewhat constant, the median gives a fairly accurate picture of what’s going on with prices. However, when sales of houses on one end of the price spectrum begin to drop or increase at a rate considerably faster than other price tiers, the median gets all screwed up.

In order to investigate this phenomenon, we can break King County into three regions. For a more in-depth explanation of this breakdown, refer to the original median price post.

• low end: South King
• mid range: Seattle / North King / Vashon
• high end: Eastside

When we last checked in on this data, sales on the expensive Eastside had surged up, leading to a misleadingly high county-wide median price. Of course, that was July’s data, which was just before the tightening in the jumbo loan market. As you would expect, starting in September, sales in the predominantly jumbo Eastside market dropped back down to normal and below-normal levels.

Here’s the chart showing the percentage of county-wide monthly sales that each of the three regions has accounted for since January 2006:

dashed line: 6 month rolling average | Click to enlarge

As a percentage of total county-wide sales, sales on the Eastside have dropped back down slightly, while sales in South King County have made a slight recovery from their lows of last summer. Meanwhile, Seattle continues to grab a larger and larger percentage of sales, as the slowdown hits the outlying areas first (this can be observed in the neighborhood breakdown posts as well).

You can also see that in recent months, there are a lot more dramatic spikes in the graph, as the mix of sales fluctuates somewhat rapidly. Here’s a graph showing how far each region is deviating each month from its average share over the last six months:

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I added the total YOY sales as a bar graph referenced to the right axis to demonstrate how much the declining sales volumes overall seems to be influencing the severe swings in the sales mix. As the decline in sales becomes more severe, the mix is more volatile, which leads to a less meaningful median price.

Here’s one more visual example of the problem with the median. The pie charts below show the breakdown in sales in February 2007 and February 2008.

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In February 2007 the median price was $429,925, and was calculated from a pool of roughly 28% Eastside, 33% Seattle / N. King, and 39% S. King. In February 2008, the median price was virtually unchanged at $429,900, but the pool was noticeably changed to 27% Eastside, 38% Seattle / N. King, and 35% S. King. The Eastside made up nearly the same amount of the mix, but sales in low-priced South King County dropped faster than in Seattle, leading to an increase of five percentage points in Seattle’s share of the mix.

I point all this out just to remind readers that the median price is deceiving. Most likely, the price of homes in most parts of King County was not flat from February 2007 to February 2008 as the median price suggests, but was actually dropping. However, with Seattle making up a larger percentage of the total homes sold, that fact is being masked.

Unfortunately, looking at median prices for individual NWMLS areas (like we do for months of supply and inventory) wouldn’t be very instructive, since most areas have such a small number of sales and the median tends to fluctuate pretty wildly. The only real way to get around this problem is to look at resales of the same houses, and compare the price to the previously sold price. This is of course exactly what the Case-Shiller Home Price Index does, and again, I believe that February’s Case-Shiller data will indeed show a larger YOY decrease than the median. I’m predicting it will show around -2% YOY.

The bottom line here is that median prices are moderately useful as a broad gauge of market direction, but you shouldn’t put too much stock in the specific numbers.

The post Revisiting the Median Price Sales Breakdowns appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Keep in mind that we are considering below 6 MOS to be a sellers market and above 6 as a buyer’s market. Based on the sketchy pre-2000 data we have available, the longest that King County as a whole has sustained a MOS above 6 was 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995. With February’s 6.14 MOS, the current run is up to six months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for July 2007 through February 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red, so they can be easily compared.

For a description of which neighborhoods each area encompasses, as well as a map of the areas and a link to the source data, visit this page.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

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Note: Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) has virtually zero SFH activity, so on a suggestion from a reader, I’m using condo data for this area.

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Just like last month, the north Seattle neighborhoods in areas 705 and 710 (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood, Lake City, Northgate, Wedgewood, etc.) stick out as being considerably less friendly toward buyers than the county as a whole or any other individual area. With MOS of 4.05 in 705 and a dismal 2.81 in 710, now is still a good time to be selling in north Seattle. The condo situation downtown is also pretty lousy for buyers, with a MOS of 2.21, but I would take the condo statistics with a grain of salt, considering how many new construction condos never make it onto the MLS.

Only one neighborhood in Seattle proper is now still a buyer’s market, area 380, which is described by the NWMLS as “Central Seattle SE, Leshi, Mt Baker, Seward Park.” Most neighborhoods in south King County are still firmly in buyer’s market territory, MOS higher than the county aggregate in 9 of 11 areas. The Eastside continues to be harsh on sellers, with only one area coming in with a MOS slightly lower than the county as a whole, area 540 (east of Lake Sammamish) at 6.07 MOS.

Yesterday I pointed out that the Eastside areas 510, 520, and 530 all had some fairly extreme spikes in inventory. With 13.18 and 10.95 MOS, areas 510 and 520 are both firmly in buyer’s market territory, while area 530 is much less severe, but still more of a buyer’s market than the county as a whole at 6.41 MOS.

King County’s islands are the two worst places to be selling a home right now, with Vashon (800) coming in at 14.40 MOS and Mercer (510) close behind at 13.18.

Here’s one more graph for you to chew on. In this one, you can directly compare each area’s MOS to one year ago’s value. February 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

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There is not a single area that isn’t trending toward a buyer’s market compared to last year. In SFH, only one area had less than double last year’s MOS, area 710 (NE Seattle), which increased 53% from 1.84 to 2.81.

The three strongest areas as of last month were North Seattle (710) at 2.81, Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 4.05, and Queen Anne / Magnolia (700) at 4.28 (as well as Downtown condos (701) at 2.21). A few more areas dipped back into seller’s market territory last month, for a total of 11 out of 30 areas county-wide coming in below 6 MOS. The three weakest areas were Bellevue west of I-405 (520) at 10.95, Mercer Island (510) at 13.18, and Vashon Island (800) at 14.40.

The post February Neighborhood Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The data that makes up these charts is publicly available from the NWMLS, and can be found in the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs. Keep in mind that what’s being plotted here is total percent growth since January 2007. If it would be more helpful to present the data in a different way, I’m open to suggestions. Each graph still has the same scale on the vertical axis, for easy comparison. The King County aggregate figure is plotted in red with circles marking the data points.

For a description of which neighborhoods each area encompasses, as well as a map of the areas and a link to the source data, visit this page.

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Note: Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) started the year with zero listings, then went up to 1 in June and 2 in January ’08, which would techincally have been an infinite percentage increase. On this chart it is displayed as a flat line.

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The most extreme action last month seemed to be over on the Eastside, where the inventory in areas 510, 520, and 530 (Mercer Island, Bellevue, and Redmond) is just exploding. Area 520 (West Bellevue) earned the distinction of having already exceeded 2007’s peak inventory as of February. Over in Seattle, area 390 (Capitol Hill) almost joined that club as well, exactly matching last year’s October peak inventory of 305.

The areas with the least inventory growth between January and February were areas 300 (Enumclaw), 360 (Skyway), and 385 (Beacon Hill), which all actually had between 1% and 4% less inventory at the end of February than a month prior.

The areas with the most inventory growth last month were areas 600 (Juanita / Woodinville / Duvall – +16.4% MOM), 700 (Queen Anne / Magnolia – +16.7% MOM), and 510 (Mercer Island) with an incredible 22% spike in inventory in just one month.

The post February Neighborhood Inventory Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To calculate months of supply for any area, you simply divide the total number of homes for sale by the number of pending sales. Generally 6 months of supply is considered a “balanced market,” while below 6 is a sellers market and above is a buyer’s market. Historically, the highest MOS for the King County area (post-1993, pre-2007) was 6.7-6.9 in the winter of 1994-1995 (based on the best available data, which is sketchy pre-2000). The current county-wide MOS is 7.54.

For the graphs below, I’ve again taken the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for January 2007 through January 2008, this time plotting the monthly value of MOS for each area. I’ve broken the data into the same five graphs as the last neighborhood breakdown post. This time I’ve plotted them on a bar graph, centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market. Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red, so they can be easily compared.

For a description of which neighborhoods each area encompasses, as well as a map of the areas and a link to the source data, visit this page.

Note: With only 8 sales in January, Area 100 actually shot all the way up to over 21 MOS, which is above the limit of the axis. In order to keep all five charts at the same scale and still have the other charts be at a reasonable height, I chose to clip the vertical at 16.

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Note: Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) doesn’t have a bar most months because there was only one pending sale all year, in October, when there was also one listing, thus resulting in a MOS of 1.

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Most neighborhoods followed right along with the King County aggregate, flipping from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market in September. However, there are a few notable exceptions. These include Enumclaw (Area 300), which jumped firmly into buyer’s market territory two months early with a MOS over 8. Also worth mentioning is Vashon Island (Area 800), which sported an MOS over 12 in December and January and Bellevue West of I-405 (Area 520), which has remained firmly at or above 10 MOS since September.

Clearly the strongest neighborhoods are in Seattle proper, with North Seattle neighborhoods (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood, Lake City, Northgate, Wedgewood, etc. – Area’s 705 and 710) showing the most resilience, still down in seller’s market territory with MOS’ in the 4-6 range. I would also like to point out that despite the presence of the Microsoft, three of the four Eastside neighborhoods nearest Redmond (Areas 520, 550 and 560) are all trending more toward a buyer’s market than the county as a whole, sporting January MOS of 14, 8, and 10, respectively. In fact, no Eastside neighborhoods remain seller’s markets, and the only ones with January MOS below the county-wide aggregate of 7.54 were East Bellevue (530) at 6.31, East of Lake Sammamish (540) at 7.48, and Juanita/Woodinville/Duvall (600) at 7.12.

The three strongest areas as of last month were Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 3.88, North Seattle (710) at 4.14, and West Seattle (140) at 5.08. Only two other areas remain seller’s markets: Queene Anne/Magnolia (700) and Richmond Beach/Shoreline (715). The three weakest areas were Eastside South of I-90 (500, which includes Issaquah) at 13.74, Bellevue west of I-405 (520) at 14.14, and Jovita/West Hill Auburn (100) at a staggering 21.38.

Does a MOS in the “buyer’s market” range indicate that now is a good time to buy in a given neighborhood? Not necessarily, and certainly not when it has only been in that range for a few months. If MOS stats stay consistently above six for a year or more, I believe we will really start to see some earnest price drops. Housing markets move very slowly. Only after the supply and demand situation has had a large amount of time to work itself out will you start to see a real effect on prices. “Buyer’s market” status just means that people selling their homes are facing a lot of competition for fewer buyers. It does not mean that now is a good time to rush out and buy, in my opinion.

The post 2007 Neighborhood Months of Supply Breakdown appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

What I’ve done below is to take the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for January 2007 through January 2008, and plot the total percent growth. I’ve broken the data into five separate graphs (the same groups the NWMLS uses in the breakout pdfs), in order to make it more digestable, but each graph still has the same scale on the vertical axis, so they can be easily compared. Additionally, each graph has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red with circles marking the data points.

For a description of which neighborhoods each area encompasses, as well as a map of the areas and a link to the source data, visit this page.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Note: Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) started the year with zero listings, then went up to 1 in June and 2 in January ’08, which would techincally have been an infinite percentage increase. On this chart it is displayed as a flat line.

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So what stands out in all this data?

First off, except for areas 110, 120, and 340 (Federal Way, Des Moines, and S. Renton), South King County doesn’t really stick out as much worse off than the county as a whole. In fact, in areas 300 and 350 (Enumclaw and N. Renton), inventory grew considerably slower than most of the county.

Most areas in Seattle proper trended fairly close to the county total, with area 390 (Capitol Hill) seeing the slowest growth. The Eastside was even more average, with the exceptions of 560 (Kirkland) on the low end and 530 (E. Bellevue) skyrocketing starting in August. North King and Vashon came in above average, with inventory on Vashon climbing the most of any area in the county.

Inventory-wise, the strongest areas (least inventory growth) as of last month were 300 (Enumclaw – 18% YOY), 320 (Maple Valley – 31% YOY), and 350 (Renton Highlands – 32% YOY). The weakest areas (most inventory growth) were 800 (Vashon – 97% YOY), 340 (S. Renton – 107% YOY), and 530 (E. Bellevue – 112%).

Make of this data what you will.

The post 2007 Neighborhood Inventory Breakdown appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

While the local press has their own theories—apparently based on whimsical fantasies and proud pink ponies—I’ve been doing some actual investigating into the more detailed reports from the NWMLS and have come up with a theory of my own.

The shortcomings of the median price as an indicator of actual price changes have been discussed here before, but typically in a hypothetical sense. For instance, we know that if low-end home buyers stop buying homes, while middle and high-end buyers keep buying, the median will increase. However, in the past we have not been able to observe this happening in King County via the data we have available to us. As you are about to see, I believe that is no longer the case.

The last time we investigated this topic we looked at actual price breakdowns. This data is not generally available to the public though, so I came up with a reasonable alternative: regional breakdowns within King County. This data is publicly available in the KCBreakout pdf files that are released by the NWMLS every month. Furthermore, it serves more or less the same purpose as price breakdowns, since the county can be split into three general regions:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

The areas’ approximate June 2006 median price was:

• South County: $360,000
• Seattle / North County: $480,000
• Eastside: $640,000

So, if we were to see (for example) a drop in sales in South King County coupled with an increase in sales on the Eastside while the median value of homes sold in each of those areas remained unchanged, the net effect on the county-wide median would be an increase. Let’s see what has actually happened in the King County single-family house market since January of last year:

thin dashed line: 6 month rolling average | Click to enlarge

From January of last year through about January of this year, the Eastside region averaged around 30% of the total closed sales, Seattle / North County averaged roughly 33%, and South County come in at about 37%. However, look what started to happen in February. The Eastside held pretty steady, but the percentage of sales in Seattle vs. South County began to converge, and essentially swap. This was followed up last month with a relatively large jump in sales on the Eastside, from 29.8% of the county-wide total in June to 33.5% in July.

In fact, I believe that almost all of last month’s increase in the county-wide median can be attributed to this spike in sales on the Eastside. To get a better idea of the magnitude of this change, take a look at this graph, which shows the monthly deviation from the six-month rolling average for each area:

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In July, the Eastside had a 15% larger portion of the total closed sales in the county than it had averaged over the January-June period, while the South County came in 11% lower. Seattle held mostly steady in July (just 1% lower), having had its large spike in April (up 11%), also primarily at the expense of sales in the South County.

What happens when the sales breakdown goes from 30-35-35 to 33-32-35 in one month, shifting sales from the least expensive area to the most expensive? Ta-da, you get a higher county-wide median.

So how much of the increase in King County’s SFH median can be explained by shifting sales patterns, rather than actual rising home prices? Before February of this year, I would have said “none.” But with Seattle’s share of the total homes sold in the county showing a steady increase, South County sales experiencing a steady decrease, and Eastside sales taking a sudden spike in July, I am now much more inclined to say “quite a bit.”

I don’t think this explains away all of the median price increase over the last few months, but I do think it accounts for a good portion of it, especially last month. In theory, if sales distributions are indeed skewing the median, we should see the YOY change in the Case-Shiller Index begin to diverge from the YOY change in the median, since the Case-Shiller method avoids this particular shortcoming. I’ll keep you posted when July Case-Shiller data is released.

Update: Guess what? My prediction about the July Case-Shiller data was dead-on. MoM change was just 0.2%, YoY was 6.86%. That’s quite a bit different from the median’s 10.6% YoY increase.

The post Median Price Not Telling the Whole Truth appeared first on Seattle Bubble.