Redfin CEO Sees ‘Moment of Reckoning’ in Seattle Real Estate Market

Many people in this middle-class town have now been priced out. We are probably past peak Seattle. For the first time this year we saw more people using our website to leave Seattle than to come to Seattle. It has been a moment of reckoning for this town… Some folks have said, ‘enough is enough.'”

The post Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman: “We are probably past peak Seattle.” appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

• GeekWire: Redfin CEO warns of slowing national real estate market, as frustrated buyers are sitting out
• MarketWatch: Housing market has hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says
• Seattle Times: Washington state no longer has the nation’s fastest-climbing home prices
• Financial Post: Cracks are appearing in the world’s most desirable property markets
• Bloomberg Businessweek: The U.S. Housing Market Looks Headed for Its Worst Slowdown in Years

Back in early June I said that based on the May inventory numbers, “we could finally be seeing the beginning of a trend that points toward an easing market.” In the months since then, it seems that a lot more people are coming around to that point of view as well. Personally I think it’s still too early for hyperbolic headlines like BoingBoing’s proclamation that “the housing market in America’s most expensive cities is imploding,” but more and more signs seem to be pointing to a serious cooling, which is definitely a good thing, in my opinion.

The post Summer 2018 slowdown link roundup appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Seattle’s law requiring landlords to choose among qualified applicants on a first-come, first-served basis violates the state constitution, a judge ruled Wednesday.

Adopted by the City Council in 2016 and in effect since last year, the groundbreaking law “has a laudable goal of eliminating the role of implicit bias in tenancy decisions,” King County Superior Court Judge Suzanne Parisien said in a written ruling.

But choosing a tenant “is a fundamental attribute of property ownership,” Parisien said in striking down the law.

The decision is a victory for landlords represented by an attorney from the Bellevue office of the Pacific Legal Foundation.

The law allows initial screening of applicants based on standards such as credit scores.

But the plaintiffs claimed forcing landlords to accept the first qualified applicant violated their property, due-process and free-speech rights, and the judge sided with them on each point.

Here’s the full judgement from the court.

In my opinion, this is good news. The law as written was a clear overreach by the Seattle City Council. It’s nice to see that the judge agreed.

From the ruling:

Choosing a tenant is a fundamental attribute of property ownership.
…
The FIT rule’s few concessions to landlords interests’ do not redeem it.
…
The FIT rule also violates the “private use” requirement.
…
The FIT rule is also an unreasonable means of pursuing anti-discrimination because of its sweeping overbreadth.

Of course, the city is likely to appeal, but given the forceful language in the ruling, it seems unlikely that they will succeed in doing anything other than wasting time and money defending an unreasonable law.

The post News Brief: Seattle’s “first in time” rental law overturned by superior court judge appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The Seattle City Council voted Monday to impose a one-year moratorium on rent-bidding platforms, which allow landlords to take competing bids from prospective tenants and then sign leases with the highest bidders — a little bit like eBay, but for apartments.

The council began looking at the platforms after the board of directors of the Associated Students of the University of Washington approved a student-senate resolution calling on the city to ban them.

The student group’s resolution late last year named two platforms, RentBerry and Biddwell, that have been active in Seattle.

By allowing landlords to easily take bids, the platforms can drive up the cost of housing, and that isn’t welcome in a city where “apartment values are already high, driving some students into homelessness,” the resolution said.

Additional coverage on GeekWire: Seattle bans rent bidding in latest attempt to keep disruptive tech from compounding housing crisis

What’s driving up the cost of housing is the basic economic imbalance of not enough supply to meet demand. People are moving to the Seattle area faster than we are building housing for them.

The solution is not to ban rent-bidding websites. The solution is to build more housing.

This is a misguided, ignorant, and foolish move by the Seattle City Council.

The post News Brief: Seattle City Council attempts to outlaw economics appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

No, we’re not in a housing bubble. Now is a good time to ask your boss for a pay raise. And we need to forget about the recession — it was a long time ago.

Those are the conclusions of economist Matthew Gardner.

“I’m an economist, it’s my job to worry and find bad things, that’s why it’s a dismal science,” said Gardner, who works for Windermere Real Estate in Seattle. “I’m trying to find bad things and I’m having a problem with it.”

Try not to laugh out loud at that last bit.

While Gardner used to at least maintain the illusion of impartiality, working as an independent economist with his own firm Gardner Economics, since 2015 he has been on staff at Windermere as their chief economist. And we all know how impartial economists are when they’re directly employed by real estate salespeople. Exhibit A: The book “Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: The Boom Will Not Bust and Why Property Values Will Continue to Climb Through the End of the Decade – And How to Profit From Them,” written by David Lereah in 2005 when he was Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors.

In order to have proper context for Gardner’s current prediction, let’s take a look at his track record when it comes to predicting the Seattle-area housing market.

According to an over-the-top positive February 2007 Seattle Times article headlined “The year of the condo in downtown Seattle,” he told “an audience of about 700 that demand for new places to live downtown will remain ‘very positive.'” As we know, that didn’t turn out to be very accurate.

Here’s an excerpt from a May 2007 Seattle Times real estate Q&A:

Q: I expect to see an actual drop in the market sometime around the end of summer. Now taking into account that many of the advertisers in your section of the paper are builders and real estate agents, what is your opinion, why, and when do you expect the present trend to actually start dropping?

A: I believe that we are in a situation where we are seeing a more-rational market and one that is returning to the more-moderate pace that we saw earlier in the decade. This is not a bad thing. I do not think that we are going to see price declines, rather we will see slowing price increases with well-located, well-priced and well-marketed houses still selling well.

This was just two months before home prices in the Seattle area peaked, eventually falling over thirty percent.

In October 2007 Gardner was predicting “a leveling off — with increases of roughly 3 percent — for a couple of years.”

Even after prices started falling sharply, Gardner remained unrealistically optimistic, claiming in early 2009 that home price appreciation would return in 2010. Of course, prices did not bottom out until early 2012.

So perhaps you can understand why, when I read something like this from Matthew Gardner today, I’m more likely to believe exactly the opposite:

The dynamics that led to the last housing collapse aren’t in play, locally or nationally, he said. Borrowers are more sound. Home building is slow. And more first-time buyers are looking for a home.

“So we have limited supply, we have good demand, we have great credit and we’re not over-leveraged and the interest rates are staying low,” Gardner said. “Housing prospects across America look pretty good as far as I can see.”

“As far as I can see” is the important qualifier there. All that Matthew Gardner ever sees is a rosy outlook for real estate.

The post Matthew Gardner: “It’s not a housing bubble” appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve no doubt seen the news that Amazon is seeking to build a second headquarters somewhere “in North America” that “will be a full equal to our current campus in Seattle.” GeekWire has been covering the story extensively (including a data-based city analysis by yours truly), so if you need to catch up on the facts, head over there. For the discussion here, let’s focus on the possible impact this development will have on the Seattle-area real estate market.

It’s quite interesting that Amazon’s big announcement came just a couple weeks after this big feature piece in the Seattle Times: Thanks to Amazon, Seattle is now America’s biggest company town

Amazon’s extraordinary growth has turned Seattle into the biggest company town in America.

Amazon now occupies a mind-boggling 19 percent of all prime office space in the city, the most for any employer in a major U.S. city, according to a new analysis conducted for The Seattle Times.

Amazon’s footprint in Seattle is more than twice as large as any other company in any other big U.S. city, and the e-commerce giant’s expansion here is just getting started.

The swarms of 20-somethings crowding into South Lake Union every morning represent an urban campus that is unparalleled in the United States — and they have helped transform Seattle, for better or worse. Amazon’s rapid rise has fueled an economy that has driven up wages and lowered unemployment, but also produced gridlock on the roads and sky-high housing prices.

And while Seattle’s booming economy is often attributed to a wide variety of factors, increasingly, it’s all about one company.

Amazon now occupies more office space than the next 40 biggest employers in the city combined.

There is no doubt that Seattle’s fortunes have become increasingly dependent on the continued growth and prosperity of Amazon in recent years. Prior to this announcement, when I thought about what might trigger another housing market decline in the Seattle area, the first thing I thought of was the possibility of hard times at Amazon. I don’t have specific data to back it up, but I do believe that the current boom in home prices is heavily influenced by the large influx of high-paying jobs that come with large grants of Amazon’s soaring stock.

Ironically, the soaring home prices that Amazon is certainly at least partially responsible for may be one of the very reasons they are searching for a new home. Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman speculates that the high cost of living in Seattle is in fact the primary motivation for Amazon’s wandering eye.

It’s the Cost of Living, Stupid

Amazon’s departure isn’t, as some have speculated, about Seattle’s taxes. We don’t really have any. And other tech giants’ plans to expand in Seattle in lieu of San Francisco is really part of the same trend. All of these companies are expanding into new cities for a variety of reasons, but a big one has been to follow the talent to a lower cost of living. This began with folks leaving San Francisco for Seattle years ago, and now some in Seattle are leaving for places like Portland, Denver and Nashville.

Amazon claims that HQ2 will be merely a “full equal” to the current Seattle headquarters. Of course to long-time Seattlites, that promise may sound similar to Oklahoma City shyster Clay Bennett’s promise that he would make a good faith effort to keep the Sonics in Seattle. And we all know how that turned out. If Amazon finds significantly greener pastures somewhere else, why would they keep growing operations here?

It’s far too early to know how this is all going to play out, but if Amazon significantly slows their hiring growth here in Seattle, I suspect that at the very least we will see the real estate market here slow down to a more balanced market with modest price appreciation. If they start to contract their Seattle footprint… look out below.

The post Okay, okay, let’s talk about Amazon HQ2 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

For frustrated house hunters, there’s hope: the volume of new listings added to inventory during June (13,658) was the highest total for any single month since May 2008 (14,176 new listings), according to the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“This time of year we see more new listings coming on the market than pending sales, and June didn’t disappoint,” stated J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott.

Noting the pace of sales is slowing and the number of multiple offers is moderating, broker Gary O’Leyar suggested a summer breather is under way (as anticipated), which could yield “the season for a successful purchase” for weary shoppers.

For a month that saw home prices shoot up to insane new all-time highs, the quotes from home salesmen in this month’s release are surprisingly calm.

I do want to address one glaring error in the release, though:

Seattle’s growing population is another likely factor. Recent U.S. Census Bureau data shows Seattle is gaining about 1,100 residents per week, an “astounding” figure, said MLS director Diedre Haines.

That number is false. The most recent data available shows a growth rate of less than half that level.

The most recent city population data I can find from the US Census Bureau was updated July 1, 2016. However, the Washington State Office of Financial Management (OFM) has annual population estimates through April 1, 2017. According to the OFM data, Seattle gained a little over 500 residents per week between 2016 and 2017.

The problem here is that Diedre Haines is citing a number that is true for the entire Seattle metro area (which includes all of King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties), which was originally published by the Puget Sound Business Journal in March.

The Seattle area is the ninth fastest-growing metro in the nation, gaining about 1,100 residents per week according to population estimates issued this morning by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Puget Sound Business Journal article was clear that they were talking about the entire metro area, but the NWMLS press release just said “Seattle,” which leads us to assume the number applies only to the city.

Here’s the chart for the whole Seattle metro area:

I assume that saying “Seattle” instead of “Seattle area” was just an error and a total failure to fact-check, rather than an intentional misrepresentation of the data. But who knows.

Hat tip to commenter “justme” who pointed this out in the comments to yesterday’s post.

Now that we’ve sorted that out, read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Kara Carlson: Million-dollar house is the new normal in one Seattle neighborhood

As Seattle home prices continue to set records, Queen Anne has officially become Seattle’s first big neighborhood to have a median home price of $1 million.

Both Seattle and the Eastside once again set price records in June as prices rose throughout King County and other central Puget Sound counties, according to the latest monthly data from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS).
…
Melissa Klinnert, a longtime broker with Steve Kennedy Team on Queen Anne, said the high and rising prices in that part of town make sense given the strong demand and the low inventory.
…
Klinnert said the influx of people moving in with high-paying jobs, especially in the tech industry, is contributing to strong sales and low inventories. According to recent census data, Seattle is gaining about 1,100 residents a week.

Argh. It’s frustrating to see the Seattle Times repeat that incorrect (or at least poorly worded) claim from the NWMLS press release. Other than that error, it’s a good article.

Edit:
The incorrect line in the Seattle Times article has now been corrected to read as follows:

Last year the Seattle metro area, extending to Bellevue and Tacoma, saw a net gain of 1,381 in population per week, according to Census data.

This is still a little inaccurate in my opinion since I wouldn’t consider 2015 to 2016 to be “last year” and “extending to Bellevue and Tacoma” leaves out Snohomish County. However, it is definitely much better and less misleading than what was there before. The web version of the NWMLS press release still contains the false statement.

KOMO News

Herb Weisbaum: More houses for sale around the sound

A little bit of good news for frustrated house hunters who can’t find a place to buy.

Inventory around here is going up. There are significantly more homes to choose from right now, according to Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.

I guess the NWMLS decided that there is a limit to how long they can go on and on about how great things are for sellers before buyers get fed up. The “more inventory” angle that they pushed this month (and was picked up by KOMO and others) is definitely a more buyer friendly message.

Puget Sound Business Journal

Marc Stiles: Little relief in sight for Seattle’s sizzling housing market as prices keep climbing

It used to be unusual for employees of Amazon and other tech companies to hunt for houses in less expensive outlying areas. Not anymore.

The rest of this article is for Puget Sound Business Journal subscribers only, unfortunately.

Tacoma News Tribune

Debbie Cockrell: What people are paying now for area homes and condos

Maybe it’s time to encourage your friends to go on vacation, so you’ll have less competition when you go looking for a house or condo.

After blowing past the $300,000 mark for median closed sales price in May, Pierce County saw the prices hit $317,000 in June.

We’re still the best bargain in the shadow of Seattle.
…
But the cool-down in home sales and prices could be starting, if June’s numbers are any indication.

Compared with May, statewide the volume of pending sales fell slightly, according to NWMLS, which also could be tied to the tight inventories in certain areas.

Meanwhile, the total volume of new listings added during June was the highest total for any month since May 2008, the service said in its news release.

Heh, I dig the cheeky intro. Unfortunately I think it’s a bit too early to say that “a cool-down in home sales and prices could be starting.” We’ll need to see more than a single month of inventory growth before we can make that kind of statement.

The Olympian

Rolf Boone: Buying a home in Thurston County continues to be an exercise in frustration

If you’re a prospective home-buyer looking for a little relief in a market that favors sellers, you didn’t find it in June, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Thursday.
…
Need a silver lining? June’s months of inventory rose to 1.37 months, up from 1.33 months in May, data show.

It’s interesting that the Tacoma News Tribune and The Olympian had totally different stories this month, each focused on their respective counties.

Here’s a bonus story that came out a day before the NWMLS data:

Q13 Fox

Hana Kim: Home buyers seeking relief from skyrocketing house prices look to Bremerton

Directly west of Seattle across the Puget Sound, developers are buzzing about Bremerton.

“It’s becoming more desirable,” said Wes Larson, with Sound West Group.

That’s why brokers such as Ben Hoefer, with John L. Scott Realty, is spending more time in Bremerton lately, showing homes to both first-time home buyers and investors.

Hoefer showed us a waterfront fixer-upper with 4 bedrooms and 2 baths for $425,000.

“You can’t get that in Seattle, let alone on the water. Big developers are coming in and they see the potential benefits,” Hoefer said.

Personally I don’t think I could live across the water from where I work. Good on those who can, though. Bremerton gets a bad rap sometimes, and it’s nice to see the town getting some love.

(Kara Carlson, Seattle Times, 2017-07-06)
(Herb Weisbaum, KOMO News, 2017-07-07)
(Marc Stiles, Puget Sound Business Journal, 2017-07-06)
(Debbie Cockrell, Tacoma News Tribune, 2017-07-06)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 2017-07-06)
(Hana Kim, Q13 FOX, 2017-07-05)

The post NWMLS Falsely Inflates Seattle’s Population Growth appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

News broke late this afternoon that after 13 years as a “startup,” Redfin has finally filed their S-1 with the SEC, signalling their intent to make an initial public offering (IPO) later this year.

Check out the excellent coverage over at GeekWire:

Seattle-based online real estate company Redfin filed for an initial public offering on Friday with U.S. regulators and will seek to raise up to $100 million.

It’s unclear when exactly Redfin would go public or how many shares it will offer. The company plans to trade on the NASDAQ under “RDFN.” Redfin declined to provide additional details when contacted by GeekWire.

Redfin would be the first Pacific Northwest company to go public in 2017.

The 13-year-old self-described “technology-powered real estate brokerage,” which has been a recent candidate to test the public markets, is active in more than 80 markets across the U.S. It has helped customers buy or sell more than 75,000 homes worth more than $40 billion combined.

They also discuss some interesting bits of information from the filing, including the fact that Redfin has been testing something called “Redfin Now” since January:

In Redfin’s IPO filing that posted Friday, the company revealed a new service it is testing called Redfin Now that lets the online real estate brokerage buy homes directly from customers.

Redfin, which is looking to raise up to $100 million in its public offering, said customers of Redfin Now will “typically get less money for their home than they would listing their home with a real estate agent, but get that money faster with less risk and fuss.”

If that sounds familiar, that’s because it’s basically the same thing that the startup OpenDoor has been doing for a few years. Zillow also launched their own version of a similar service called “Zillow Instant Offers” in May, although personally I believe Zillow’s service is just another thinly-veiled way of harvesting leads for agents. But we can discuss that later.

Speaking of Zillow, Redfin’s IPO filing gives us the first opportunity we’ve had to directly compare some financial and usage data between Redfin and Zillow.

Before we get to the charts, keep in mind that Redfin and Zillow have vastly different business models. Redfin is a real estate brokerage that actually helps people buy and sell homes, while Zillow is a middle-man self-proclaimed “media company” that sells ads to agents and has no interest in disrupting real estate. The two companies are different enough that I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to compare them, but everyone is going to anyway, so I may as well get the ball rolling.

First up, here’s a chart comparing the top-line revenue and total net loss each company has seen over the last three complete years 2014 through 2016:

Zillow’s revenues are roughly three times Redfin’s revenues. What’s interesting about this to me is that Zillow has been getting over eight times as many “average monthly unique visitors” than Redfin. The SEC filing shows Redfin’s monthly average unique visitors at 20.16 million, while Zillow’s first quarter 2017 report put theirs at 166 million. It would seem that Redfin’s business is a lot more efficient at converting web visitors into dollars.

Also interesting: here’s the loss shown in the chart above, expressed as a percentage of total revenue:

While both Redfin and Zillow have lost money the last three years, Redfin’s trajectory looks a lot more promising than Zillow’s.

Again, this is not investment advice. I have no idea whether Redfin’s IPO will be a good investment or not. I certainly hope that Redfin will go on to be a profitable business long into the future, but I have no way of knowing whether or not that will happen.

The post Redfin files S-1, likely to IPO later this year appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Good news for renters (and maybe hopeful home buyers, as well): 2017 should see the beginning of relief for the Seattle area’s crazy rental housing market. The infamous $750-a-month 130-square-foot ‘prison cell’ apartment just might have marked the market peak. According to the Seattle Times, Seattle’s record apartment boom is ready to explode.

And not a moment too soon. The last few years have seen some serious imbalance in housing supply and demand in the Seattle area:

Here’s the same data, but with the imbalance between supply and demand shown more directly:

In 2015 and 2016, the Seattle area added 23,800 more new households than housing units. That’s nearly twice as large as the next-largest deficit we’ve seen since 2000.

Meanwhile, after bottoming out in 2013 and 2014, occupancy rates are rapidly climbing in all three counties:

According to the Seattle Times, nearly 10,000 new apartments are expected to come on the market in the city of Seattle alone this year, followed by another 12,500 in 2018. If we see a similar trend across the whole Seattle metro area, we can expect to see a lot more balance in the rental market soon. When you combine that with an increase in mortgage interest rates, it’s entirely possible that we will also see the local real estate market start to soften in 2017.

Hit the jump for additional individual charts of housing supply and demand for King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties.

The post Huge 2017 Apartment Boom Should Soften Housing Market appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Western Washington Housing Market Still Strong

It’s still a seller’s market, but some leaders from Northwest Multiple Listing Service think the imbalance may be easing in some areas, pointing to a slower pace of sales and moderating prices. Others aren’t convinced, citing mixed indicators.
…
Commenting on September’s activity, Northwest MLS director George Moorhead reported “rumblings on both sides of the fence” by buyers and sellers. “Buyers are getting antsy to make a move before interest rates rise and they’re looking harder at homes that have been on the market longer than 30 days.”
…
“We have one month until November when new listings coming on the market drop by 50 percent on a monthly basis compared to spring and summer months,” explained J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. With the decrease typically lasting until the end of February, Scott said for selection, “the best opportunity for homebuyers to find a home will be in the next 30 days.”

The “best opportunity for homebuyers” is always right now according to used home salesmen like Lennox Scott.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Mike Rosenberg: Seattle home prices still raging despite extra inventory, slow fall season

After a punishing year for anyone looking to buy a home in and around Seattle, the fall price cool-down that many buyers have been waiting for hasn’t arrived with much force.

The good news for buyers is that Seattle isn’t setting any more home-price records like it did this spring. And the rate of home-price increases has slowed to about half of what it was earlier in the year.

But the bad news is that home costs are still growing much faster than normal, and exceed recent pay hikes. The market remains one of the hottest in the country, even though the region is finally starting to see more houses come on the market.
…
Although this month’s data presented a muddled picture on prices, the change in inventory was clearly positive. For the first time in the last few years, additional homes in significant number are finally starting to come back on the market for sale.

The number of houses for sale in the county is now at its highest point in two years, although it still has a long way to go to get back to “normal” inventory levels. That could help contain the recent bidding wars and price spikes triggered by the historically low supply of homes for sale.

But it doesn’t seem to be helping much yet.

Mike Rosenberg hasn’t been covering real estate for the Times for very long, but in my opinion he’s doing a good job of presenting balanced, thoughtful pieces. Mike also touched on the Chinese investment angle in his article:

September marked the second full month since British Columbia announced a closely watched 15 percent tax on foreign homebuyers in the Vancouver metro area. Since then, there’s been a huge increase in interest from Chinese buyers looking toward the Seattle area.

It’s impossible to know how exactly that’s affected prices here. But the area most popular with Chinese buyers — in and around West Bellevue — saw a record median price of $2.19 million in August just after the Vancouver tax was announced, before dropping a bit in September.

“I’m feeling the pressure of what feels like increased foreign investment, more so than in the past,” Moss said, adding he’s seen more buyers from out-of-state, as well.

As usual, we only have rumor and anecdote when it comes to the affect that Chinese investors are having on the Seattle-area housing market. Speaking of Chinese buyers…

MyNorthwest

Kipp Robertson: More and more Chinese investing in booming Seattle market

By now you’ve seen homes for sale that have ended up selling for at least 20 percent more than their asking price in the Seattle area. But who or what is causing this?

Well, according to Katherine Jinyi Li of Seattle Globalist, at least some of the factors playing into homes selling for way over the asking price has to do with Chinese nationals willing to pay more.

Li writes that despite a crackdown on foreign currency outflow, Chinese are desperate to get their money out of a faltering economy, so they send their college-age children with plenty of cash to Seattle to start investing in things that can eventually be re-sold — and, of course, get an education that they may not be able to get in their home. A Chinese broker with Windermere Real Estate told Li that her team “processes anywhere from three to eight transactions a week,” Li writes.
…
People upset over the increasing difficulty in finding a home shouldn’t point fingers at Chinese investors, however. Li was told by the Windermere agent that it’s the tech boom, more than Chinese investors and their college students, that are to blame for the costly homes.

Until we see some actual hard data that proves otherwise, I’m inclined to agree that Chinese investors are not a major factor in the Seattle-area housing market.

Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian

Rolf Boone: September another strong month for area home sales

The South Sound housing market had a great summer and that continued into September as sales of single-family residences once again rose by double-digit levels in Pierce and Thurston counties, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Wednesday.
…
Sellers have been in the drivers seat all year, but prospective buyers caught a break last month as more single-family residences hit the market, the data show. Months of inventory — an estimate of how long it would take to exhaust the supply of single-family residences at the current pace of sales — moved closer to two months in Pierce County and remained slightly higher than two months in Thurston County, the data show.

“The increase in listings is pretty unusual given that the number of listings usually declines between August and September,” said Windermere President OB Jacobi in a statement. “Considering how desperate we are for inventory, I hope this trend continues as we head further into the fall months.”

That quote from OB Jacobi is straight from the NWMLS press release. It’s interesting that they actually chose to admit that the listings increase was unusual, since it is a possible sign that the market may be softening. The identical short article is also available in The Olympian.

And that’s it! I couldn’t find stories in any of the other local news outlets so far. If others pop up throughout the day today I might add them to this post.

(Mike Rosenberg, Seattle Times, 2016-10-05)
(Kipp Robertson, MyNorthwest, 2016-10-06)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 2016-10-05)

The post September Reporting Roundup: “The Market Is Still Strong” appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Market showing signs of adjusting

Home sales around Western Washington continued at a torrid pace during June, but a 10 percent year-over-year increase in new listings has some brokers with Northwest Multiple Listing Service suggesting a little relief may be emerging.

In the meantime, “We have a long way to go to catch up with the demand,” stated Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.

Surprisingly, I completely agree with the release up to this point. As I said yesterday, there are some signs that the market might be at a turning point. We may be seeing some very early signs that the market is softening a bit, but since it has been so strongly tilted in favor of sellers for so long, it’s most likely going to take a long time to get back to anything resembling a balanced market.

Back to the press release:

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott, Inc., described the market as “frenzy hot” in June, but suggested there was a “short breath of fresh air for homebuyers.” He credits the combination of more inventory coming on the market and lower interest rates with bringing some “welcome relief to the backlog of buyers who have been waiting to purchase a home.”

Here’s where I disagree with the NWMLS release. The market is still currently terrible for buyers. There really wasn’t any “breath of fresh air.” The data from June show signs that there might be some fresh air on the horizon, but it’s still a long way off. Of course, Lennox is never going to suggest that it isn’t a Great Time to Buy™, so his spin is no surprise.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Mike Rosenberg: Seattle’s devilish new home price record: $666,000

As home prices and rents continue to soar faster in the Seattle area than just about anywhere else in the nation, the city and its neighbors have set new highs for housing costs.

Seattle’s median single-family home cost $666,500 in June, easily beating out the record set in February, according to figures released Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Seattle home prices have risen 15.9 percent just in the past year and an astounding 74 percent in the last five years.

The typical Seattle home now costs about $300,000 more than it did when the market bottomed out in 2011.
…
“I don’t see any end in sight, yet,” said South Lake Union broker Eric Shull of John L. Scott Real Estate. “We’re still going to see price increases. With all the tech companies moving our way and more employees moving this way, it’s just nuts.”

Oh definitely. Home prices can only go up, up, up—forever! There’s no end in sight! Hmm, now where have we heard this before.

Everett Herald

Herald Staff: Housing market in Snohomish County continues torrid pace

Home prices continued to climb dramatically in Snohomish County last month.
…
And part of the reason for the increase is the continued lack of inventory on the market.

Unfortunately, the Herald article this month is basically just an excerpt from the NWMLS press release.

KING 5

Travis Pittman: Listings down, prices up in June Western Wash. housing market

The tight real estate inventory in Western Washington led to a drop in listings and fewer multiple offers in June, but home prices continued to climb. It may be a sign of more people priced out of the market.

We’ve also got an extremely short piece from KING 5. Nothing much to comment on here.

Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian

Rolf Boone: South Sound home sales cool from May

The South Sound housing market cooled to warm from hot in June, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Wednesday.

That’s because more single-family residences came to the market last month in Pierce and Thurston counties, likely giving prospective buyers in a seller’s market a bit more time to find a house.

A fairly short, just the facts story in the Tribune and the Olympian. No real expansion on the numbers or local flavor in this online edition, anyway.

(Mike Rosenberg, Seattle Times, 2016-07-06)
(Herald Staff, Everett Herald, 2016-07-07)
(Travis Pittman, KING 5, 2016-07-06)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 2016-07-06)

The post June Reporting Roundup: “A Long Way To Go” appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Housing inventory improves, but market still favors sellers

“Our market is near historically low levels of absorption. This has things weighted in sellers’ favor,” remarked Ken Anderson, president/owner of Coldwell Banker Evergreen Olympic Realty and a former Northwest MLS director. “Successful buyers are working closely with their brokers to study the market, choose great lenders, and make smart choices in composing compelling but not careless offers,” he added.
…
J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott, Inc. described April as “another grand slam month for housing,” adding, “The market is more intense than a year ago. We are still seeing 80 percent of the homes coming on the market sell within the first 30 days.”

Scott said “virtually all new listings are selling, many with multiple offers in all the market areas in King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap counties in the price ranges where 90 percent of the sales activity is happening.” Heavy open house traffic and multiple offer situations are keeping brokers extremely busy, he added.
…
Brokers believe the frenzied market is altering some buyers’ behavior – and not all of it is prudent, they suggest.
…
Diedre Haines, a former chairman of the Northwest MLS board of directors, reports there are growing signs “of buyers’ fatigue, and game-playing at its finest.” Pre-inspections are being conducted as the “new normal,” and/or buyers are waiving many of their rights with regard to inspections, title reviews, neighborhood reviews, and financing contingences, according to Haines, Coldwell Banker Bain’s principal managing broker for South Snohomish County.

“In my opinion, this is risky behavior for both buyers and sellers,” Haines commented, adding, “Buyers need to perform their due diligence investigations, and sellers should be cautioned about the wisdom, or lack thereof, in thinking these waivers strengthen the offer, are good for them, or that they create a ‘no hassle’ quick-close transaction.” She urged parties to a transaction to think through the potential consequences of taking such risks.

Wow, a home salesperson urging prudence and they’re being quoted in the NWMLS press release? I’m floored.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Blanca Torres: Home prices charge ahead, driving some buyers farther afield

The list of cities some might call suburbs of Seattle now stretches to places like North Bend, Poulsbo and Cle Elum. More homebuyers are willing to trade longer commutes to buy a house they can afford or for more space and features.

Some would-be buyers are looking at such alternatives as a lack of available homes on the market drives up prices in the hot housing markets of Seattle and the Eastside.
…
Multiple bids and bidding far above the asking price are the norm in hot submarkets, leaving some prospective buyers demoralized. That is prompting some buyers to consider moving to another part of the region.

“You see Seattle fatigue, where you have buyers who have been outbid many times or have seen homes go well above asking prices,” said Stacie Gall, a Redfin agent based in Bainbridge Island.
…
“A lot of people are being willing to move out of their comfort zone and are finding that Seattle and the Eastside are becoming too expensive,” said Shane Raff, a real-estate agent with John L. Scott. “People are just getting priced out of the market and there’s nowhere for them to go.”

I don’t know if this is a real trend, but if it is, it’s worrisome. It’s this same kind of “buy a home no matter what” mindset that contributed to the frenzy and eventual bubble burst ten years ago.

Everett Herald Business Journal

Jim Davis: More homes land on market in county, but still too few

More homes hit the market in Snohomish County during April, but inventories remain far below what was available a year ago, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service says.
…
It’s part of a trend that’s been going on for months: There just aren’t enough homes available for the number of active buyers in the area.

It was nice to get a local article in the Everett Herald for the first time in a long time, but unfortunately the article was little more than window dressing on the NWMLS press release.

Puget Sound Business Journal

Marc Stiles: New home listings up, but not enough to cool down region’s blistering market

Pending home sales in the Puget Sound region’s four-county area are at a near record, more owners are putting their houses on the market, and price increases for single-family homes have started to slow down some.

Yet prices still are climbing, and it remains a seller’s market, especially if you’re unloading a condo.
…
The temperature of the condo market remains torrid, especially in King and Kitsap counties. In King, where inventory fell nearly 27 percent, the median sales price was up 19 percent. Downtown Seattle condo prices jumped 37 percent even as inventory remained about the same. In Kitsap, condo prices soared nearly 62 percent, though the number is based on just 16 sales. The Pierce County median price increased 13 percent and Snohomish County’s went up 3.6 percent.

Not a lot of depth to this article, but those are at least some interesting observations about the condo market. I’ll have to see if there’s enough data to see any interesting trends in condos lately.

Tacoma News Tribune

Craig Sailor: Pierce County still a real estate bargain compared with King

A tight inventory of homes continues to drive up prices in King and Pierce counties.

But that’s only one of the direct factors affecting affordability.

Land regulations, development costs, job growth and labor shortages also are raising prices. And builders are turning toward higher-end projects where those costs can be more easily worked in. The result is less affordable and entry-level housing.

That’s the conclusion of Robert Dietz, a national economist for the National Association of Home Builders, and Aaron Terrazas, a senior economist for housing data company Zillow.

The pair spoke early Wednesday at the annual Master Builder’s Association housing forum in Puyallup.

This article technically isn’t about the latest NWMLS data, but it is interesting and worth a read. You’re obviously going to get a very pro-buying-always message from an event put on by a homebuilder organization, but it’s interesting to see the latest spin they’re putting on it and the kinds of underlying factors they’re looking into.

The Olympian

Rolf Boone: Sellers had the advantage in South Sound housing markets in April

South Sound home sellers remained in the catbird’s seat in April as a lack of inventory and rising prices continued to favor them, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Thursday.

But if prospective buyers can’t find the houses they want or get outbid, guess what happens? Sales slow. That was the case in Pierce County, at least, as sales were essentially flat, rising only 1 percent last month compared with April 2015.
…
Thurston County has had a little more breathing room, but not much. In April, months of inventory was 2.06 months, the data show.

This one is the article covering the NWMLS numbers for the Tacoma and Olympia area. Not a lot of meat on the bone here, but frankly there’s not a lot of new and interesting things to say about the market right now.

(Blanca Torres, Seattle Times, 2016-05-05)
(Jim Davis, Everett Herald, 2016-05-05)
(Marc Stiles, Puget Sound Business Journal, 2016-05-05)
(Craig Sailor, Tacoma News Tribune, 2016-05-04)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 2016-05-05)

The post April Reporting Roundup: “Risky Behavior” Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

With holidays approaching, real estate brokers usually expect a slowdown as buyers and sellers shift their attention elsewhere. “This year is different,” say some industry leaders.

“This time is different!”

It always is, isn’t it?

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: Short supply pushes up region’s home prices

Given such tight supply, homes that do come on the market are gone quickly. Across King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap counties, last month’s volume of pending sales — purchase contracts that haven’t yet closed — made it the second best October on record, said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of the John L. Scott brokerage.

“The market will remain hot through the winter,” he said.

Buyers may pine for more choices, but construction of new single-family homes isn’t capable of meeting the enormous appetite.

And of course there is no way demand would ever drop, right? It’s impossible to conceive of any way that could happen, so obviously Seattle’s housing market will remain hot forever!

Puget Sound Business Journal

Marc Stiles: Struggling to find a house? Try the ‘Seahawks Strategy’

A new report shows that the acute shortage of homes for sale in the Puget Sound area continues, spurring more bidding wars.

One real estate company is offering a game plan to beat out the competition: go shopping during a Seahawks game. It worked for one John L. Scott Real Estate client.

The woman had thought she found the perfect home only to lose out in a multiple-offer situation. So she and her broker decided to look at a few homes on a Seahawk Sunday. At 10 a.m. she walked into a house she loved. By noon she made an offer, and it was accepted 24 hours later.

Yes I am certain that the Seahawks game had everything to do with her successful offer. And also the phase of the moon and Venus in retrograde.

My Northwest

Kipp Robertson: Buy a home on Seahawks game day if you want to win the bid

The housing market in Seattle and outlying areas has become so competitive that people are willing to skip a Seahawks game to look for a home.

After losing in a bidding war, a client of John L. Scott and her broker went to go shopping for a new home on a Seahawk Sunday, the Puget Sound Business Journal reports. The client was able to make an offer, which was accepted 24 hours later.

“The key is to go shopping during a Sehawks game,” KIRO Radio’s Tom Tangney said. “You tend to have fewer bidders.”

It is embarrassing that this nonsense was published in even one outlet, but two? Yikes.

Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian

Rolf Boone: South Sound home sales still strong in October

Although Pierce County didn’t experience a double-digit increase in sales, the picture was brighter for median price, which rose 10.5 percent in the past year. In Thurston County, the median price rose 8.3 percent over the same period, the data show.

Bottom line: It remains a seller’s market.

It’s nice that we can close this up today with a nice clean factual report devoid of superstitious nonsense and ridiculous predictions. Thank you, Mr. Boone.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 2015-11-05)
(Marc Stiles, Puget Sound Business Journal, 2015-11-05)
(Kipp Robertson, My Northwest, 2015-11-07)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 2015-11-05)

The post October Reporting Roundup: Predictions and Superstitions Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

I laughed out loud when I read it. Specifically the first word there: “keep.”

If you’re not wealthy, Seattle is already unaffordable by nearly any metric. Rents are soaring, home prices are hitting new all-time highs, and inventory of both rentals and for-sale homes are at all-time lows.

I don’t live in Seattle proper, nor do I have any desire to. I have no position on Seattle Proposition No. 1 (a.k.a. “Move Seattle”), but I find the language in this ad to be laughable.

The numbers listed on the KeepSeattleAffordable.com “Facts” page are amusing as well.

Consider this sample tax bill from a home without a view on Queen Anne.

The property’s assessed value is $713,000. The total property taxes last year came to $6,833, of which the city’s portion was $1,870.

…if voters approve Proposition 1, the burden will jump another $439…

So $37 a month on a $700,000 home. That’s the line between “affordable” and “unaffordable.” Right.

I’m sure there are good arguments for and against this transportation levy, but “keep Seattle affordable” is not among them.

The post Will a No Vote on Prop. 1 “Keep Seattle Affordable”? appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Housing market slowdown expected
But prices in most areas are still rising

Scarce inventory, new rules for mortgage closings and affordability concerns will likely slow home sales around Western Washington during the remaining months of 2015 and into early 2016, according to spokespersons from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

The latest statistics from the MLS show a double-digit drop in inventory, a double-digit jump in closed sales, and a near double-digit increase in prices from a year ago, prompting one industry leader to say the trends aren’t sustainable. “We simply can’t sustain double-digit increases in sales when inventory levels continue to drop every month,” remarked OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “We’re on the cusp of a housing market slowdown,” he predicts.

I think this is the first time I have ever seen the NWMLS press release quoting their agents with anything other than a “rah rah hot market” sentiment. It’s very odd.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: Many homeowners stuck owing more than their houses are worth

After the most brisk summer selling season in a decade, the Seattle area’s home prices showed signs of easing in September.

Potential buyers may welcome a cooling, but it’s grim news for the large slice of the region’s homeowners whose mortgage debt remains greater than their home’s value.
…
Although home prices have rebounded strongly since the Great Recession, more than 33,500 King County homes had negative equity at the end of June, or 9 percent of homes with a mortgage, according to Seattle-based Zillow, the real-estate website.
…
Owners in that position have little financial incentive to list their properties for sale, reducing the potential inventory available to first-time buyers. And lower-value homes account for a disproportionate share of these so-called underwater homes.

“It’s causing a lot of friction at the bottom of the market, which then ripples through to the entire market,” said Zillow Chief Economist Svenja Gudell. “For some of these homeowners, they may pay off their mortgages before they resurface.”

With as much as home prices have increased in the last three years, I really doubt that underwater mortgages are having much of an effect on the market anymore.

Note that these estimates for how many people are underwater are based on Zillow’s notoriously inaccurate automated home price estimates. For example, in my neighborhood, one home that sold for $285,000 last month had a “Zestimate” of $191,000. I put very little stock in these “underwater” guesses in this hot market.

Puget Sound Business Journal

Marc Stiles: Windermere president: Seattle’s ‘on the cusp of a housing market slowdown’

September revealed double-digit drops in inventory along with a double-digit jump in closed sales.

This trend isn’t sustainable, said Windermere Real Estate President OB Jacobi, who predicts that the area is “on the cusp of a housing market slowdown.”

Another factor that will slow things down is the new banking and closing disclosure requirements that will extend closing times.

I wish the article had gone into more detail about the new disclosure requirements. That is something I will be looking into.

Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian

Rolf Boone: South Sound housing market heats up again in September

After a cooler August, the South Sound housing market heated up in September as single-family residence sales once again jumped by a double-digit margin, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Monday.

And median prices weren’t too far behind, rising 10.3 percent in Pierce County and 7.5 percent in Thurston County from September 2014, the data show.

Given the limited supply of homes on the market, buyers need to be decisive, write competitive offers and be prequalified by a lender to purchase, said Francine Viola, a longtime broker with Coldwell Banker Evergreen Olympic Realty in Olympia, who was showing an open house in the Campus Highlands area of Lacey on Sunday.

But that’s not to say that sellers can sit back and wait for the offers to roll in, she said. They still need to price their residence correctly and be prepared to negotiate.

“This is not Seattle,” she said about the Thurston County housing market, where some buy with cash but many still finance their purchase.

Or, maybe buyers need to sit the market out for a while instead of contributing to the frenzy, making things even worse? Nah, crazy idea.

Since this post is so late, here’s a bonus article from the New York Times last week:

New York Times

Nick Wingfield: Seattle, in Midst of Tech Boom, Tries to Keep Its Soul

SEATTLE — For years, business leaders here have closely studied the San Francisco region, seeking to emulate the way it churns out so many leading technology companies.

In large measure, those efforts worked. But now, leaders in Seattle are looking to the Bay Area as a different sort of model: a cautionary tale.

The giant sums of money spinning around San Francisco in recent years, fueled by a booming tech sector, have generated hordes of 20-something millionaires and thousands more with six-figure salaries. While that wealth has created a widely envied economy, housing costs have skyrocketed, and the region’s economic divisions have deepened. The median rent for a one-bedroom apartment in San Francisco is $3,530 a month, the highest in the country.
…
“Seattle has wanted to be San Francisco for so long,” said Knute Berger, a longtime chronicler of life in Seattle. “Now it’s figuring out maybe that it isn’t what we want to be.”

Great article with some outside perspective on Seattle’s boom. I definitely recommend reading the whole thing if you haven’t already.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 2015-10-05)
(Marc Stiles, Puget Sound Business Journal, 2015-10-05)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 2015-10-05)
(Nick Wingfield, New York Times, 2015-10-08)

The post September Reporting Roundup: Unsustainable Trend Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Opinions vary on possibility of a housing slowdown, but numbers show solid activity

Some brokers from Northwest Multiple Listing Service detected a slowdown in housing activity during August, “but nowhere near what is typical,” according to one industry veteran. Among MLS leaders who commented on the service’s latest report, expectations for the remainder of 2015 ranged from one who predicted “we’re on the cusp of a slowdown,” to others describing activity as “torrid” and saying “sales will continue at a fast pace.”
…
“I don’t think any real estate market/economy can sustain steadily increasing prices like we’ve seen without a leveling or a drop-off of sorts,” cautioned Gary O’Leyar, designated broker/owner at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Signature Properties and a past chairman of the Northwest MLS board.
Another industry leader also commented on a possible leveling of activity.

“Given the seasonality of real estate and low inventory levels, I think we’re on the cusp of a slowdown in the housing market,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “The continued double digit increases in home sales simply cannot be sustained unless we see inventory growth,” he emphasized. That is unlikely, he suggested, “since we’re entering the time of year when fewer people list their homes.
…
“Conditions are optimal for the home buying surge in the Puget Sound Region to continue, due to job growth and historically low interest rates,” suggested J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott. “We can also expect the severe shortage of homes for sale close to job centers, and in the more affordable and mid-price ranges in all Puget Sound markets, to persist,” he added.

You can always count on Lennox for the perpetually rosy outlook, no matter what reality suggests.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: Condo prices climbing even faster than houses

While the inventory of homes for sale has ticked up steadily since March, the region continues to suffer the worst shortage in more than a decade.

But prices haven’t risen enough to jump-start new-home construction.

From January to July, building permits were issued for a total 5,103 single-family homes in King, Pierce and Snohomish counties, down 4 percent from a year ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

But permits were issued for 9,938 multifamily units, a 45 percent jump over a year ago, with the vast majority being apartments.

Builders are opting for apartments over condos, experts say, because they don’t face the liability of being sued under the state’s condominium act. Some condo builders still bear fresh memories of multimillion-dollar settlements with homeowner associations.

“You’re finding developers saying, ‘Why take the risk of building a condo?’ ” said Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate. “Whereas in today’s environment, you can build an apartment, get it half leased up, sell it to an institutional investor and walk away.”

There’s also the overall falling home ownership rate and general disinterest in home buying in the wake of the bursting bubble. The closer you get to the city, the less likely you’ll find affordable homes and the less likely you’ll find people who even want to buy.

KING 5

Dan Cassuto: Home prices soaring in Seattle

The market is especially hot in neighborhoods like Ballard.

A 950-square foot home with three bedrooms and one bath had an open house on Saturday. The listing price? $425,000.

“It’s considerably more difficult to find a place than it was a year ago,” said Heather Hearsey, the agent listing the home. “I’ve heard of numerous people getting 13 to 15 offers on a house with people waiving inspection and waiving financing.”

Here’s the video from KING 5:

To quote the buyer in the video: “The market just totally sucks. Everything is overpriced and super tiny.”

I feel your pain, anonymous Ballard buyer. I feel your pain.

Puget Sound Business Journal

Steven Goldsmith: For Seattle-area home shoppers, August was not enough of a good thing

The housing market showed few signs of wilting in the August heat.

…the overall market continued to be held back by a scarcity of listings. For the fifth month this year, the MLS said, pending sales in its 23-county area outpaced the number of new listings added to the inventory. The 9,921 new listings was was the lowest level since February.

We didn’t get much more than a short blurb from the PSBJ this month, unfortunately.

Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian

Rolf Boone: Growth of South Sound home sales slowed in August

The South Sound real estate market cooled in August as sales of single-family residences in Pierce and Thurston counties failed to rise by a double-digit margin for the first time since February.

But let’s not get greedy, because sales still rose more than 7 percent in both counties from the same period a year ago, according to data released Thursday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Median prices, too, continued to rise in both counties last month, as did the number of pending sales, the data show.

“August continued a very busy spring/summer market,” said Ken Anderson, president and owner of Coldwell Banker Evergreen Olympic Realty of Olympia, in an email.

Even though this month’s Tribune / Olympian story is short, I appreciate that Mr. Boone at least got an independent quote from a local agent. Better than just copying the canned agent quotes in the NWMLS press release.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 2015-09-03)
(Dan Cassuto, KING 5, 2015-09-06)
(Steven Goldsmith, Puget Sound Business Journal, 2015-09-04)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 2015-09-03)

The post August Reporting Roundup: “The Market Just Totally Sucks” appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

I waited an extra day because there were only four articles out there about this month’s numbers, but nothing new showed up all day yesterday, so this is all we get.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Pent-up demand continues to fuel home sales around Western Washington with millennials, military families and relocating workers vying for limited inventory. Brokers from Northwest Multiple Listing Service say they’re not seeing a typical summer slowdown.

Commenting on a new report from Northwest Multiple Listing Services summarizing July activity, J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott, Inc. said, “The Puget Sound housing market is sizzling hot, with the best July on record.” He expects inventory shortages will continue into the summer of 2016.
…
Commenting on the possibility of a “bubble market,” MLS director Darin Stenvers believes it is unlikely. “With broader government controls and enforcement of new banking/loan programs, the underlying instability is now gone.” Buyers are feeling confident that “home ownership is still the best investment they can make right now, and homes are still within reach for most segments of the market,” added Stenvers, the office managing broker at John L. Scott in Bellingham.

This month’s press release seems like it’s a lot longer than the typical ones put out by the NWMLS, and that “not a bubble” bit was stuffed in right near the end.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: King County median home prices slip as market cools a bit

The median price of King County single-family homes sold in July slipped 3 percent over the month to $485,000, a surprising reversal for a month that brought peak prices in each of the past two years.

The drop comes after King County’s median home price hit a post-recession peak of $500,000 in June.

July’s median price, reported Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, represented a 3.6 percent gain over the past 12 months, the weakest annual gain so far this year.

The numbers suggest a cooling in an overheated market. From April through June, prices had jumped 9 percent to 12 percent from their year-earlier level, a pace far above the market’s historical average of about 4 percent.

I agree with Sanjay that the market may be cooling just a bit, but I disagree that the one-month price fluctuation is anything other than a change in the mix of homes that were sold. Oddly, this means I actually agree with Lennox Scott about something:

Lennox Scott, CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, said the lower price in July also could be due to the mix of homes that sold.

Of course, Lennox only offers up that explanation when the price falls, not when it shoots up.

KING 5

Travis Pittman: No summer slowdown in home sales in Western Washington

It remained a seller’s market in Western Washington in July, something realtors say is due to more people moving to the region and not enough available homes to go around.

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS), a real estate industry-owned system which tracks home sales in 23 Washington counties, says realtors are not seeing the typical summer slowdown in home sales.

KING 5 took the opposite position of the Seattle Times, claiming that there is no slowdown. Of course, they pulled that claim straight from the NWMLS press release, so take that for what it’s worth.

Puget Sound Business Journal

Marc Stiles: Home prices fall in July, but that doesn’t mean market’s cooling down

Median home sale prices actually declined from June to July in some parts of the metro Puget Sound region, but other indicators show that unlike the weather, the housing market isn’t cooling off.

New numbers out Wednesday from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS) show the median July sales price of single-family homes had a month-over-month decrease of 3 percent in King County and 4 percent in Pierce County. Yet based on the total number of properties that sold, it was still “the best July on record,” said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Inc.

Everything is great. There are never any storm clouds on the horizon. Continue buying and do not fear.

Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian

Rolf Boone: No slowdown in South Sound housing market

The South Sound housing market remained as hot as the weather in July, as sales continued an upward march last month, rising more than 20 percent in Pierce and Thurston counties, according to new single-family residential data released Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

But the hotter real estate market likely has been stoked by a key factor: There still isn’t much in the way of inventory for buyers.

All about that inventory.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 2015-08-05)
(Travis Pittman, KING 5, 2015-08-06)
(Marc Stiles, Puget Sound Business Journal, 2015-08-05)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 2015-08-05)

The post July Reporting Roundup: Slowdown / No Slowdown Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

“First time buyers are returning to the market, but cautiously and with more knowledge based on market values and trends,” said George Moorhead, designated broker and owner at Bentley Properties in Bothell.

“Educated buyers today are no longer just dipping their toes in the water. They are diving right in,” reported Mike Gain, CEO and president of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest Real Estate. Gain, a past chairman of the Northwest MLS board, said in his 38 years in the industry he’s experienced “good years, bad years and everything in between,” but he’s never seen a market as complex as the current one. “It’s been challenging for everyone involved in a real estate transaction, whether buyer, seller or agent.”

Gain and many of his colleagues bemoan the lack of listings. “The only real problem we are experiencing today is the lack of inventory,” he said.
…
“Kitsap house sales are hotter than a firecracker,” observed MLS director Frank Wilson, the branch managing broker and Kitsap district manager at John L. Scott Inc. in Poulsbo. “Despite heat, vacations and holidays the market has not slowed. We continue to see good open house traffic, low market times and multiple offer situations,” he stated.

Multiple offers are common throughout the Central Puget Sound region.

“We see many multiple offers on properties,” reported Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma, who described sales activity as “phenomenal.” For first-time buyers, the competitive bidding can be daunting, which he suggested underscores the importance of relying on experienced brokers. Anxious buyers have a sense of urgency as prices rise, he noted. “They need a great real estate broker to help guide them through multiple offer situations,” added Beeson, a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors.

Rising prices are prompting some house-hunters to broaden their search beyond primary job centers.

“More and more buyers are starting to chase the market northward as prices increase in King County, especially around Seattle,” said Diedre Haines, principal managing broker-South Snohomish County at Coldwell Banker Bain in Lynwood. [sic]

Happy days are here again for used home salespeople. You can feel their excitement oozing through the press release with phrases like “hotter than a firecracker” and “diving right in.”

It’s great times for everyone… except the people out there actually trying to buy a home.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: Median price for single-family homes hits $500,000 in King County

But real-estate experts say this market is different in a number of ways. Buyers now must leap over many more hurdles to qualify for a mortgage. Hiring at technology firms has expanded the region’s economic base. And a drought in listings that surfaced in 2013 has no end in sight.

“I wouldn’t say we’re in a bubble,” said Alan Pope, a real-estate appraiser in Redmond. “I would say the balloon is growing, and I can’t tell when it’s going to stop.”

Lennox Scott, CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, said that over the long term, homes in the region appreciate 4 percent annually. Home prices lost so much ground during the past recession that the market today is just slightly above where it should be by that measure, he said.

Home salespeople declare current frenzy market not a bubble. Film at eleven.

KIRO 7

Deborah Horne: Median single-family home in King County reaches $500,000

waiting several years for the right moment.
Within a week, they sold it for $529,000, nearly four times what they paid for it 22 years ago.

“It’s amazing. I could not afford to come back here and buy into this house,” said Meyer, who is retiring to Bellingham.

He said they wondered if they should wait another year, but thought interest rates might climb up by then.

“We thought you know, let’s get out of here. Let’s get going while the going’s good,” Meyer said.

Smart move. Now is a pretty terrible time to buy, but it’s a great time to sell.

KING 5

Travis Pittman: Average price of King County home rises to $500,000 in June

The median price for a single-family home in King County was $500,000 in June, up more than 10 percent from the same month a year ago.

Not much content in the KING 5 story, but they lose points for using average in the headline, even though they correctly cite $500,000 as the median in the text.

Puget Sound Business Journal

Marc Stiles: More buyers compete for fewer houses: Experts say this could go on for years

Typically home-buying activity falls off during the summer months, but not this year in the metro Puget Sound region, where buyers are competing to buy fewer homes while paying significantly higher prices.
…
Real estate brokers say first-time buyers are fueling the market as tenants grow tired of paying ever-rising apartment rents. In addition, more people are moving to the region to fill a growing number of jobs. Across the state, non-farm employment rose by 7,700 positions from April to May, according to early estimates from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Puget Sound Business Journal is relatively light on any commentary beyond the press release as well.

Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian

Rolf Boone:

The South Sound housing market in June had just about everything an owner would ever want if they needed to sell.
…
But here’s the catch: Can anyone actually find a house to purchase?

That might be the question on the minds of many buyers, because even though the South Sound housing market continues to sizzle like the weather, inventory got a little tighter last month.

Homes for sale are scarce across the entire Puget Sound region.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 07.07.2015)
(Deborah Horne, KIRO 7, 07.07.2015)
(Travis Pittman, KING 5, 07.07.2015)
(Marc Stiles, Puget Sound Business Journal, 07.07.2015)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 07.06.2015)

The post June Reporting Roundup: “The balloon is growing” appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott, Inc. called 2015 “the best start ever for sales activity.” Citing MLS figures, he noted cumulative pending home sales in the four-county Puget Sound area for the first five months of the year are outpacing the previous record year of 2005. “This time,” he emphasized, “the housing market is built on a strong foundation of qualified buyers.”
…
“Locally, home prices are continuing to rise at a steady pace, and they continue to outpace both inflation and wage gains,” observed Mike Gain, CEO/president at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest. Pent-up demand is pushing inventory lower, he notes. Gain believes the supply challenges could be alleviated if more sellers put their home on the market. “Sellers may never see a better time to be a seller,” commented Gain, a former chairman of the Northwest MLS board.
…
Mike Gain expects historically low interest rates, a growing economy, improving consumer confidence and consumer finances will continue to fuel activity and push up the numbers. “Anyone who can buy a home today at today’s prices with today’s low interest rates should do it. In my opinion, prices and monthly payments will never be lower than they are today.”

I love it when salespeople throw around over-the-top hyperbole and absolutes like “never.” No way that will ever come back to haunt them.

This month I could only find three articles in the local media outlets about the latest NWMLS numbers, despite waiting all weekend for more stories to come in. Apparently “yeah, it’s still a terrible time to be a homebuyer” is not considered very newsworthy.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: Home-price boom: What $450K will buy you around Puget Sound

The [inventory] shortage in King County is historic: May marked the third month in a row the county had less than a month’s supply of homes and condos for sale, which hasn’t happened since at least 2004, according to a Seattle Times analysis of MLS data.

“You’re at crisis levels. Something’s got to be done,” said Stephen O’Connor, director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington. “There has to be some level of comprehensive strategy here to figure out how to bring in more supply.”

With interest-rate hikes on the horizon, buyers appear willing to duke it out in bidding wars and pay a premium for living in King County’s urban corridors to avoid long commutes and surging rents, real-estate agents say.

“It’s like buying a loaf of bread for $10 because there’s nothing left on the shelf and you’ve got company coming,” said Mark Ossinger, a Seattle-based designated broker for Fathom Realty.

Oh man, I am totally going to get into the bread sales brokerage business.

Puget Sound Business Journal

Marc Stiles: And you thought Seattle’s housing market couldn’t get any tighter

The number of condo and house sales in the central Puget Sound region jumped 15 percent last month over the previous year, even as the number of residences for sale dropped precipitously.

The result: an even tighter housing market with home prices climbing at more than 9 percent, according to data the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS) issued on Thursday.

In a balanced market, there is a four- to six-month supply of inventory. But in King County there was only 1.2 months of inventory last month, and several neighborhoods near Seattle’s job centers had less than a month of supply.

To be honeset, there isn’t much substance to the PSBJ article this month. It was mostly just a slight rehash of the press release.

Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian

Rolf Boone: Home sales rise, prices soar, inventories dip in latest Washington real estate report

Severe inventory shortages.

Prices up, and multiple offers for homes for sale in many neighborhoods.

According to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, May was a great month to be selling a home but a not-so-good month if you were looking to buy.

“The crush between the lack of inventory and desperate buyers may soon generate the next TV reality show,” stated Dick Beeson, an MLS director and principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma.

Similar story in the News Tribune this month. I guess there is only so much you can say about low inventory.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 06.04.2015)
(Marc Stiles, Puget Sound Business Journal, 06.04.2015)
(C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune, 06.04.2015)

The post May Reporting Roundup: Never a Better Market Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

I don’t think we’re anywhere near in a position to worry about another bubble. The increase in appreciation has been pretty steady. It hasn’t gone up overnight.

– Deidre Haines, Broker with Coldwell Banker Bain

“Not anywhere near” definitely seems like a stretch to me. And here’s what “steady appreciation” apparently looks like to a home salesperson:

That spike is pretty much exactly what most people would call overnight. We went from prices falling by 18 percent year-over-year in late 2011 to prices up 18 percent year-over-year in early 2013.

I am also quoted in the article, so at least it’s got some balance.

The post Home Salesperson Quote of the Day appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Disputes over the release of earnest money are extremely rare, but anyone who has ever been involved with one knows they can be an extremely miserable experience. For a buyer with limited funds it can mean a lengthy delay in being able to make an offer on another property. For both parties it can be very emotionally draining and expose them to the potential of paying attorney fees—both their own and those of the other party.

The most common scenario for an earnest money dispute is after a buyer terminates a contract based on the Form 35 inspection contingency. That contingency is based on a subjective standard, so assuming the buyer’s agent followed proper procedures to give notice, and that there’s no element of “bad faith” in the contract process, the buyer should be entitled to the return of their earnest money. Unfortunately the seller may act in an irrational manner, and refuse to sign the documents that an escrow will likely require allowing the return of funds. Escrows usually will require the signatures of all the parties because they do not want to risk being sued for an incorrect return of the funds, particularly on a transaction which they will not be making any money.

The NWMLS statewide forms (e.g. Form 21) attempted to deal with this problem by setting up a notice procedure which would allow the escrow to release the earnest to the party demanding it. Unfortunately very few escrows have been willing to follow that procedure, and not being a party to the contract, they have not been required to follow that procedure. Instead, if the parties did not come to an agreement the escrow would eventually deposit the earnest money into a Superior Court registry by initiating an interpleader action.

Fortunately the legislature has noticed this problem and passed HB 1730 (pdf) which applies to residential real property transactions. HB 1730 does several things. Most notably it requires that within 15 days after receipt of a written demand for the earnest money that the Holder of the earnest money:

1. Send a notice to all the other parties to the contract;
2. Release the funds to the demanding party; or
3. Interplead the funds.

A Holder following either option 1 or 3 will be protected from liability. Assuming a notice is sent, it will give the other parties 20 days to object to the release of the funds, and give them an address to send their objection. If no response is received within the 20 day period, the Holder has ten days to release the funds to the demanding party. If an objecting response is received, then the Holder has 60 days to commence an interpleader action, absent further agreement of the parties.

The notice is required to be sent to the known address and email addresses of the parties, and the Holder is not required to look outside its records to find an address. This makes filling in the address or email address (preferably both) of the parties on the purchase and sale agreement critical, as well as notifying the Holder of any change of address. [Note: It is somewhat unlikely the Holder would know the parties’ email addresses until after the parties return the Holder’s “Open Package.”]

HB 1730 is not effective until July 24, 2015, but it is effective as to any earnest money held on that date. That means that real estate agents should make sure at least the mailing addresses of the buyer(s) and seller(s) are included in their current purchase and sale agreements, as well as their email addresses if possible. And it also means that buyers and sellers should check to make sure those mailing addresses are included on any contracts that they sign. It is not exactly clear what will happen if that information is not provided, but one likely possibility is the escrow will start an interpleader action within 15 days of the demand for earnest money, and if that occurs, HB 1730 requires the court to pay the Holder their attorney fees and costs, leaving less money for the buyer(s) and seller(s) to fight over.

Disclaimer: This piece is not intended to be legal advice, but is merely the author’s understanding of the operation of the new legislation. Persons needing or wanting legal advice would need to contact and hire their own attorney. Real estate brokers may want to also contact their designated brokers.

The post Earnest Money Disputes and HB 1730 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last week local brokerage Quill Realty (spotlighted in this 2014 post) announced that they will be withdrawing from the NWMLS completely in order to “offer broker services to sellers who want to avoid the cost of a cooperating broker.”

As longtime readers of this site know, I have something of a love-hate relationship with the NWMLS. I love how open they are with much of their data, and I definitely love that listings are kept current in their database, but I hate many of their backward and overbearing rules, and I’m not a fan of some of their data processing methods.

That said, being listed in the local MLS has been the only way to reliably sell your home quickly and for the best price, even back when the MLS was literally a 3-ring binder with listing printouts.

So how does Craig (owner & managing broker of Quill) hope to compete post-MLS? Here’s an excerpt from his press release:

This will allow Quill to sell homes while charging owners only its own, single broker commission of 1%. So home owners will soon be able to sell their houses using the services of a fully licensed REALTOR for far less than the 3% to 6% of the MLS.
…
Quill anticipates being able to put its listings on numerous, highly trafficked web sites, such as Zillow, Redfin, and Realtor.com, exactly those places where buyers are searching today. All without using the NWMLS and without paying the commission of a cooperating broker who represents the buyer.

Will the appeal of paying just one percent of the sale price to a real estate broker be enough to lure sellers to take the plunge? It’s not the first time this kind of thing has been attempted. In fact, it is very similar to the model Redfin began with ten years ago (although Redfin was focused on buyers and Quill is targeting sellers). Over the years, Redfin’s fees have gone up and their service has become closer to what’s provided a typical agent.

The biggest question I had for Craig was whether buyers who are already working with an agent would be steered away from Quill listings since Quill will not be offering to pay the typical three percent to the buyer’s agent. Here’s what Craig had to say about that:

First and foremost, Quill will be relying on the legal and ethical duties of real estate brokers. This conduct you describe may be illegal, and it is grossly unethical. So I believe this won’t happen as often as you are assuming.
…
Buyers of Quill listings will know as much about the listing as their agent. They won’t need their agent to tour the home, and they won’t need their agent to make an offer. At the end of the day, I like how those disincentives stack up. Those unethical brokers who might be inclined to steer clients away from Quill-listed homes will soon realize that they are making a poor decision. They will soon realize that it is in their interests to assist their clients in buying the homes their clients want to buy, whether listed with Quill or any other real estate firm.

Craig also goes into more detail on his plans on the Quill blog and in a recent Rain City Guide post.

Quill’s new model is similar to what Surefield launched last November (Surefield is also a Seattle Bubble advertiser, and is a Quill partner). The differences between Surefield’s model and Quill’s new model are that Surefield is still an NWMLS member, they charge slightly more at 1.5%, they offer a $2,000 flat commission to buyers’ agents, and their listings include their signature 3D virtual tour on their website.

The current listings-scarce market definitely seems like an ideal time to try something like this. Buyers are desperate for listings, and if they find something they want, they’re most likely going to do whatever it takes to see it, whether it’s listed on the MLS or not.

I’m definitely a fan of moves that will save home buyers and sellers money and bring further pro-consumer change to the real estate industry. I’m not yet convinced that consumers are ready for something this dramatic, and I still think Craig has an uphill battle ahead of him when it comes to dealing with the entrenched interests of buyers’ agents, but I do hope he succeeds.

The post Quill Leaves NWMLS, Dramatically Slashes Listing Cost appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It’s time once again for the monthly reporting roundup, where you can read my wry commentary about the news instead of subjecting yourself to boring rehashes of the NWMLS press release (or in addition to, if that’s what floats your boat).

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Northwest Multiple Listing Service members notched a record high level of pending sales during April, surpassing the year-ago volume by nearly 1,800 transactions. Both closed sales and prices also surged last month as the spring market kicked into high gear.
…
Within the four county region, Pierce County experienced a jump of nearly 38 percent in closed sales compared to a year ago, followed by Snohomish County with a 35 percent increase, prompting one MLS director to comment, “That is super amazing.”
…
[Principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma and MLS director Dick] Beeson cautioned buyers against “playing games” with sellers. “The new normal for buyers is that the quest for the perfect home may have to wait,” suggested Beeson. “You should buy now, get in the mix, buy a home and build equity for a future decision,” he advised. “Don’t wait to pay more for the same home next year.”

Brokers do not appear to be worried about a housing bubble.

“Some are talking about the potential for another housing bubble given the lack of homes for sale and the bullishness of buyers in bidding up properties,” acknowledged [Windermere Real Estate president OB] Jacobi. “For now,” he said, “I believe there are sufficient safeguards in place to keep this from happening.”

Classic Beeson. He’s got such a great track record for predictions. I definitely think it is a good idea to take his advice that you should buy now, don’t wait! P.S. – That was extremely sarcastic.

I’d also love to know what “safeguards” OB Jacobi believes are in place to keep another bubble from happening. You know, other than wishes on stars.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: King County home prices surge, just shy of 2007 peak

Buyers have hit the gas, fearing higher interest rates and offering premium prices in the face of a record low inventory of homes for sale.

“This is a historic moment in time,” said J. Lennox Scott, CEO of John L. Scott brokerage. “Housing is in a pressure cooker in the metro area. We’re going to be here for a while.”
…
One extreme example of that pressure is a 1,120-square-foot north Ballard home that sold last month for $158,000 above its asking price. While Windermere broker Phil Greely said he’s delighted with the price he got for his seller, “for buyers it’s a slightly depressing story.”
…
The three-bedroom, one-bath house drew 13 offers, most with so-called escalator clauses that ratchet up to compete with higher bids. The top offers waived every consumer safeguard in the contract, known as “contingencies,” effectively giving up their earnest money. The winner put up roughly $100,000 in earnest money, Greely said, and released half of it immediately to the seller once the offer was accepted.

The selling price, 28 percent above the list price, was $717,000 — an eye-popping $640 a square foot.

I think we can officially declare that whether or not this market is a “bubble,” it’s definitely become completely absurd. If I was dead-set on owning a home, I would rather move away from the Seattle area entirely than pay over $700,000 for a 1,100 square foot shack in Ballard. Ridiculous.

Everett Herald

Herald Business Journal Staff: Snohomish County sees 35-percent increase in home sales

They should just put up the ‘For Sale’ signs with the ‘Sold’ placards already attached.
Or that’s what it feels like.

Snohomish County saw a 35-percent increase in closed sales year over year for the month of April, according to numbers released on Tuesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Unfortunately this month’s Herald piece is little more than a regurgitation of the NWMLS press release. It’s slightly better than having no story at all though, I suppose.

Puget Sound Business Journal

Emily Parkhurst: Seattle-area home sales reach a fever pitch as rising rents drive millennials to buy

You may have heard that millennials don’t buy houses. The Great Recession and housing bubble scared them away.

For some, myself included, that’s true.

But for millennials who are watching their rents go up and up and up, buying a home is looking like a more attractive option.

Combine that with low interest rates and a flood of new people to the area, and you’ll see what’s currently playing out in Seattle.

Buying a home may look attractive if your rent just went up, but in this extreme seller’s market the appeal will evaporate pretty quickly once you actually realize how much time and money it will take to buy a home.

Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian

Rolf Boone: Lack of inventory a problem as South Sound housing market remains hot

The South Sound housing market remained hot in April as closed sales of single-family residences jumped by more than 20 percent in Pierce and Thurston counties, according to housing data released Tuesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

But can all potential buyers or sellers actually find a single-family residence or move-up property to buy?

That’s increasingly becoming the challenge for both markets as the number of single-family residences for sale fell 16 percent in Pierce County from the period a year ago, and fell 4 percent in Thurston County.

And that means the inventory of single-family residences on the market continues to drift lower, the data show.

Nice piece, if rather short, from The Olympian this month.

Bonus: You can listen to a short segment from yesterday’s “Seattle’s Morning News” with Dave Ross in which I talk a little bit about the local real estate market (my segment starts around the 13 minute mark).

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 05.05.2015)
(Herald Business Journal Staff, Everett Herald, 05.05.2015)
(Emily Parkhurst, Puget Sound Business Journal, 03.06.2015)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 05.05.2015)
(Dave Ross, Seattle’s Morning News, 97.3 KIRO, 05.06.2015)

The post April Reporting Roundup: “You Should Buy Now” Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

This story by KUOW’s Joshua McNichols is a couple weeks old, but he hits the nail on the head, and I wanted to make sure it wasn’t overlooked. Why This Rickety Building Lost The Fight Against Rising Rents

Frustrated renters often blame developers. But the reality is more complicated…
…
The Summit Inn started out as housing for people with mental health problems. It morphed into an artists’ hub over time because of its former owner, Peter Sikov, whose motto was to “create places where things can happen.”
…
Rents at the Summit Inn stayed low because Sikov didn’t maintain the building much. Over time, it slid into disrepair.
…
Last year, the Seattle City Council passed a law requiring that all rentals meet a standard. Apartments would be subject to random inspections.

Sikov balked. And at the end of 2014, he sold the Summit Inn for twice what he paid in 1998.
…
That’s when Brad Padden entered the picture.

“We bought the building at today’s market rates,” Padden says. “There was no discount to us so that we could continue with that kind of patronage of the residents there.”

Padden and his business partner bought the building for almost $3 million.
…
“When you buy a $3 million building, and you put $2 million into it, you have to recoup those costs,” he says.

You should read (or listen to) the entire story.

As Joshua points out, an investor can’t buy an apartment and increase the rents if the previous owner doesn’t first put it up for sale. If you insist on having someone to blame, perhaps you should be blaming the sellers, not the buyers.

The post KUOW Nails the Problem of Placing Blame for Rising Rents appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Frenzied Market Frustrating Buyers

Buyer anxiety is rising as the pace of home sales is faster than brokers are able to replenish inventory, according to members of Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Figures just released for March show 11,408 pending sales during the month while only 10,505 sellers listed their homes for sale during the same period.
…
The multiple offer market has become commonplace on well-priced new listings, observed John Deely, principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain. However, he cautioned, “Some sellers are pushing pricing boundaries and are not seeing the same action as their well-priced competition.”
…
Deely, a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors, said buyers are flooding into the Greater Seattle market due to abundant job opportunities. He also attributed the high demand to low interest rates and skyrocketing rents. “Some high demand areas in Seattle have had a doubling of per bedroom rental rates to over $1,000 per bedroom,” according to Deely.

Nothing like a little rent price scaremongering from a home salesman to kick us off.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Coral Garnick: Home prices in Seattle jump 18.9 percent from year ago

The median price of Seattle homes sold in March rose 18.9 percent over the year to $535,000 — the biggest jump in at least five years.

The number of available homes for sale has been at historic lows in recent months, helping drive up prices.
…
Multiple offers have become commonplace across the region because of the shortage of homes for sale. In March, King County had 1.3 months’ supply of homes, while Seattle had less than a one-month supply.
…
As the start of the spring season, March is typically a very good month for sales, Scott said. But coming out of a mild King County winter where sales didn’t slow down as they usually do, March’s sales have made the lack of inventory more severe.

It’s getting really old at this point, but the lack of inventory really is the main story in the Seattle housing market. Without more homes hitting the market we’re going to be stuck in this rut for a while.

Seattle P-I

As I mentioned yesterday, the P-I’s longtime real estate reporter Aubrey Cohen has moved on to another gig. While my opinion of the P-I has gone down dramatically ever since they dropped the print edition and basically became “Buzzfeed Light: Seattle Edition,” Aubrey always did great work there on the real estate beat. His efforts will be missed.

KIRO 7

Deborah Horne: Seattle housing prices skyrocket

That’s how longtime Realtor Carmen Gayton sees the for sale signs in nearly every Seattle neighborhood.

“Amazon, eBay, you name it, they’re all coming to Seattle,” said Gayton, “Which we’re happy about but it does cause a little bit of an issue with housing.”

Indeed business was brisk at this Open House on a Tuesday afternoon on Seattle’s Queen Anne Hill. A little too brisk for Chris Byszeski, a software engineer for Amazon.com.

“The trouble being that you see a list price and that’s probably not what it’s going for,” said Byszeski.

And he’s been looking for the last two months.

It really does stink to be a buyer right now, even if you’re making a sweet six-figure salary working for the biggest tech employer in the northwest.

KING 5

Travis Pittman: Tight Puget Sound housing market creating ‘buyer anxiety’

Buyer anxiety. Frenzy market.

Those are two descriptions about the current status of the Western Washington housing market given Monday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
For those buyers who can’t win a bidding war, they’re left to try to find an affordable place to rent.

Good luck with that.

“Some high demand areas in Seattle have had a doubling of per bedroom rental rates to over $1,000 per bedroom,” said John Deely, a broker at Coldwell Banker Bain.

“Don’t throw your money away on rent!”

“Buy a home no matter how overpriced it may seem!”

Puget Sound Business Journal

Emily Parkhurst: Seattle-area home sales reach a fever pitch as rising rents drive millennials to buy

You may have hear that millennials don’t buy houses. The Great Recession and housing bubble scared them away.

For some, myself included, that’s true.

But for millennials who are watching their rents go up and up and up, buying a home is looking like a more attractive option.

Combine that with low interest rates and a flood of new people to the area, and you’ll see what’s currently playing out in Seattle.

I may have also heard that making generalizations about an entire group of people based on arbitrary birth year cutoffs is somewhat ridiculous. Or I may have said that. Just now. Articles about what “millennials” are or aren’t doing when it comes to buying homes are annoying and basically never insightful or interesting, in my opinion. Thankfully Ms. Parkhurst avoids falling too far into that trap, but she certainly skirted the edge.

Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian

C.R. Roberts: Home prices sizzle in a real estate seller’s market

Prices are up, inventory is down and real estate officials seem stretched as they attempt to find the sturdiest metaphors to describe a sizzling seller’s market.
…
“The multiple-offer market has become commonplace on well-priced new listings,” said John Deely, principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain, in a NWMLS release.

“Sellers are currently experiencing the role of Prince Charming as buyers vie to win the Cinderella title by escalating offer prices above market value, releasing earnest money and waiving contingencies normally used to safeguard the transaction,” he said.

Meanwhile, he continued, “the less fortunate ‘stepsisters’ are becoming shell-shocked after numerous failed attempts.”

Okay, John Deely lost points earlier for the rent price scare-mongering, but I will award him some consolation points for at least coming up with an original and colorful analogy.

(Coral Garnick, Seattle Times, 04.06.2015)
(Deborah Horne, KIRO 7, 04.07.2015)
(Travis Pittman, KING 5, 04.07.2015)
(Emily Parkhurst, Puget Sound Business Journal, 04.08.2015)
(C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune, 04.06.2015)

The post March Reporting Roundup: Anxious Frenzy Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Mapping King County’s disappearing middle class

The map is cool (click through to the article for an interactive version), and Gene’s overall point is interesting (that the middle class is stagnating while low and high income households are both increasing), but this is the part that jumped out to me as particularly relevant to the local real estate market:

investment returns — which many of the ultrarich live on, rather than salaries — are excluded from household-income calculations by the Census Bureau

Strong increases in high income households will certainly drive up home prices, but I think investment returns may be causing some of the recent disparity between incomes and home prices. The Seattle area is strong market for tech and startup jobs where equity is a big part of compensation. Since this equity is not considered in median or per-capita income data it stands to reason that when the stock market (and in particular the tech market) is doing well local home prices are likely to rise more quickly than local incomes.

Unfortunately no good data exists (that I know of) on the source of money that poeple are using to buy homes. There is data on all-cash purchases, but our last look at that data (through 2011) showed that most of those were focused on the low end of the market, probably mostly rental investment properties or flips. The best proxy I can think of would be to look at what percentage of homes are being bought with more than twenty percent down, but not all-cash. I would hypothesise that those purchases are likely to represent people buying expensive homes to live in with the help of a large investment return.

Two thirds of the 31 percent that Seattle-area home prices fell after the bubble (per Case-Shiller) came between November 2007 and March 2009, when the Nasdaq fell 54 percent. I think it’s likely that good times in the tech stock market has a greater effect on Seattle-area home prices than most other areas (the Bay Area being the other obvious candidate for such a correlation).

I’ll be digging into this to see what kind of data I can dig up on this topic. Let me know if you’ve got any ideas in the comments below.

The post Are Seattle Homes Being Purchased With Income, Or… appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Favorable weather and restored confidence are propelling home buying activity around Western Washington to the highest level in nearly a decade, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service sources.

“The pent-up demand being unleashed has rocketed pending sales back to the levels of our record year in 2006,” said Ken Anderson, president/designated broker at Coldwell Banker Evergreen Olympic Realty in Tumwater. Buyers have come off the sidelines, the former MLS director commented, adding “At the same time, homes for sale are near a 10-year low.”
…
“Listings are flying off the shelf faster than allergy medicine in this early spring market,” quipped MLS director Frank Wilson, the branch managing broker at John L. Scott, Inc. Poulsbo. He said the brisk activity is posing challenges for buyers. “They will probably make several offers before one is accepted and they just need to expect to be competing with others,” he cautioned.
…
“The housing market is on fire,” said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “Due to the backlog of buyers and shortage of homes available for sale, we are experiencing multiple offers on nearly every new listing. This is creating price appreciation where 90-plus percentage of the sales activity is taking place.”

It’s on fire!

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: King County home prices up 6% from a year ago

The drought in local homes for sale, combined with heavy demand from buyers, has real-estate brokers openly worrying that the pressure on prices could become toxic.

“We’re to the point now where I’m worried about another bubble,” said Bill Groen, a veteran broker at Keller Williams Realty in Bothell. “I worry about affordability throughout King County and South Snohomish County.”

Trevor Smith, managing broker of Locality Seattle, said he’s concerned when he sees homes that need a lot of work receiving multiple offers.

“It’s important for the buyer to keep their wits about them and not get caught in the frenzy,” Smith said.

Whoa. Agents openly worrying about a new real estate bubble? That’s definitely not in the NWMLS talking points. Good to see Sanjay Bhatt and the Seattle Times pushing beyond the rah-rah press release fluff from the NWMLS, as usual. Such a refreshing 180-degree change from where we were with Elizabeth Rhodes during the last bubble.

Seattle P-I – MIA

Everett Herald

The Herald Business Journal Staff: Bumper crop of buyers despite limited supply of homes

An often warm and sunny February brought out more and more people looking to buy homes, but in a market with fewer properties available.

“Undeniably, our unusual spring-like weather has not only fueled and jump started an early allergy season, but the market as well,” said Diedre Haines, Coldwell Banker Bain’s principal managing broker, in a statement.

Sadly, the Herald’s effort this month is basically just a reprint of the NWMLS press release.

Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian

C.R. Roberts: Home sales are hot and prices are up as inventory dwindles in Pierce, Thurston counties

Blame the nice weather and the cockeyed optimism that accrues in an economic recovery.

The real estate market is back. Sales are up, Inventory is down and the price of homes has increased.
…
“The pent-up demand being unleashed has rocketed pending sales back to the levels of our record year in 2006,” said Ken Anderson, president and designated broker at Coldwell Banker Evergreen Olympic Realty in Tumwater.

Buyers, Anderson stated, are leaving the sidelines, while “at the same time, homes for sale are near a 10-year low.”

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, was more effusive still.

“The housing market is on fire,” he said in Thursday’s NWMLS news release.

“Effusive,” heh.

Puget Sound Business Journal

Marc Stiles: Seattle-area home sales rocket back to 2006-era levels

A new report shows just how hot the Puget Sound region housing market is.

Even though more people are putting their houses and condos on the market, it’s still not enough to keep up with demand, and the inventory of available properties is less than it was a year ago, according to the report on February sales that the Northwest Multiple Listing Service issued Thursday.

This month the Seattle Times was the only local outlet to print much more than a mild rewrite of the NWMLS press release.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 03.05.2015)
(The Herald Business Journal Staff, Everett Herald, 03.05.2015)
(C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune, 03.05.2015)
(Marc Stiles, Puget Sound Business Journal, 03.06.2015)

The post February Reporting Roundup: Market on Fire Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Spring market "not waiting for tulips" but limited inventory frustrates homebuyers

Home sales this super bowl season outpaced a year ago as sidelined buyers emerged to compete for limited inventory, according to brokers who commented on January activity.

New figures from Northwest Multiple Listing Service show year-over-year increases in pending sales, closed sales, and prices, while inventory fell by double digits.

“The current inventory of homes available for sale has never been lower in my 22 years as a real estate broker,” lamented MLS director George Moorhead, designated broker and owner at Bentley Properties.
…
Moorhead believes inventory shortages are due in part to hesitant sellers. “Sellers who would like to enter the market are holding off for two main reasons,” he suggested, adding, “Either they cannot find the next home to move up/down to, or they purchased between 2005 and 2007 and may still be underwater.” Sellers who were foreclosed or completed a short sale during the Great Recession are becoming eligible to purchase a home again, Moorhead noted. “This will bring an altogether new segment of buyers who are more savvy and cautious” so they won’t repeat past mistakes.

Moorhead also credits new loan programs, revised loan programs, and a general easing of guidelines for buyers with making home buying more attainable. “The only holdback is inventory or credit scores,” he suggested.

Northwest MLS director Frank Wilson echoed that notion. “It’s almost the perfect storm: low interest rates, low inventory, pent up demand, and a pipeline of sidelines buyers who could not buy because of a past short sale or foreclosure.” Their two year to three year waiting period is up and they are looking again, he reported.

Wilson, branch managing broker at John L. Scott in Poulsbo, said the spring market is not waiting for the tulips this year – “spring has already sprung. We are seeing an increase in traffic at our open houses with more buyers out looking at our limited inventory.”

When we’re talking about the housing market, it is definitely a good idea to bring up tulips, but not for the reason Mr. Wilson seems to think.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: Tight house supply pushes prices up in King County

Last month’s median price of single-family homes sold in King County was $441,500, nearly 8 percent higher than in January a year ago.
…
Inventory remained tight, the MLS said, with a two-month supply; a supply of four to six months is considered a balanced market.

Brokers say the shortage is worse than the numbers show because a significant chunk of the two-month supply isn’t in salable condition.

“We’re a fast-growing area with not enough houses and condominiums on the market,” said Alon Bassok, a researcher at the University of Washington’s Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies. “We can expect to see housing prices go up.”

That comment about “a significant chunk” of homes on the market not being in “salable condition” is super worthless. How much exactly is a “significant chunk”? Is the number or percentage of current inventory that isn’t in “salable condition” larger than it is in a typical market? Much like “open house traffic,” this is one of those claims that home salepeople like to throw out there to make the market sound hotter than it is, without having to provide any hard data to back it up.

Seattle P-I

Aubrey Cohen: Supply of houses for sale in Seattle remains tight

Prospective home buyers continue to have little selection in and around Seattle, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Thursday.
…
“We just really are a fast growing city without enough inventory on the market,” said Alon Bassok, a research scientist at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington. “Limited inventory, in this case, means to me that we’re going to see prices go up even further.”

In addition to the lack of homes currently for sale, the rental market is also tight and construction of new homes isn’t keeping pace with demand, Bassok said. “So there’s pressure on all sides.”
…
In a listing service news release, George Moorhead, designated broker and owner at Bentley Properties, said: “The current inventory of homes available for sale has never been lower in my 22 years as a real estate broker.”

Prospective sellers are holding off because they can’t find another home or because they still owe more than their homes are worth, Moorhead said. Meanwhile, he added, new buyers are hitting the market, thanks to a new federal program for people with low down payments, an easing of lending guidelines and the expiration of waiting periods during which people whose homes were foreclosed on or who went through a short sale during the recession were not eligible for another mortgage.

Bassok agreed these factors are at play, but said they are secondary compared with the general influx into Seattle and lagging construction of new homes. He said people able to buy again after a foreclosure or short sale aren’t able to compete with new arrivals. As for homes still being worth less than the mortgage balance, he added, that could be the case in some outlying areas, but not in the core of Seattle, between Sodo to the south and 85th Street to the north.

Hah! Gotta love a little academic smackdown. Calling out home salespeople on their nonsense.

Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian

C.R. Roberts: Home prices up, inventory down in Pierce and Thurston counties

Home prices are up; the inventory of available properties is down; and now is the time to buy, if you’re looking to buy.

That was the message Wednesday as the Northwest Multiple Listing Service released the latest data concerning home and condominium sales activity and prices.

“The numbers are as good as we could hope for,” said Dick Beeson, a member of the service’s board of directors and the principal managing broker at Tacoma’s Re/Max Professionals.

His advice for people considering buying a home?

“You’re going to have to make decisions more quickly,” Beeson said. “You’re going to have to step up to the plate and do your homework. You won’t have the luxury of picking and choosing that you had last year.”

JUMP IN NOW! DON’T THINK! JUST DO IT NOW!

Puget Sound Business Journal

Ben Miller: Where are the Seattle-area homes for sale? Inventory shrinks

There are a lot fewer Seattle-area homes for sale right now than there were a year ago.
…
In King County, there are only about two months of home supply for sale; real-estate brokers say a healthy balance between supply and demand is a four- to six-month supply.
…
Brokers lamented the tight inventory situation.

The PSBJ article this month was very light. I’ve quoted almost half of it above.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 02.05.2015)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 02.05.2015)
(C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune, 02.05.2015)
(C.R. Roberts, The Olympian, 02.05.2015)
(Ben Miller, Puget Sound Business Journal, 02.06.2015)

The post January Reporting Roundup: NWMLS Tulips Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Local real estate leader calls December "One of best on record"

Real estate brokers around Western Washington reported a strong finish to 2014. December’s sales outpaced the same month a year ago by double digits, according to new figures from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“December was one of the best Decembers on record,” observed J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate upon reviewing the latest statistics from the listing service.
…
Commenting on the combination of scarce inventory in some areas and expectations of rising interest rates, the head of one large real estate company advised, “Anyone thinking of buying a home should do it early in 2015!”

“Prices, interest rates, and rents will continue to rise,” stated Mike Gain, CEO and president of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest Real Estate in Seattle. “The cost of buying a home is not determined by price alone but by price and the mortgage rate,” he explained, adding, “The longer a buyer waits, the higher the mortgage payment as prices and interest rates continue to increase.”

“Buy now! The price is only ever going to go up, up up!” Gee, now where have I heard that before…

Oh yeah only from basically every single real estate agent prior to the collapse of the bubble. But wait, didn’t home prices totally crash, while interest rates simultaneously fell to historic lows? Don’t you worry your pretty little head about that. Surely it could never happen again. Never ever.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: Flurry of year-end home sales brings strong finish to 2014

King County’s housing market ended 2014 with a flurry of sales, but with the lowest supply of active listings in any month going back more than a decade.
…
That crunch affected total sales: The MLS reported 24,393 sales of single-family homes for the year, 300 fewer than in 2013. In the previous five years, total sales volume climbed each year in King County.
…
The $440,000 median price of single-family homes in 2014 was 6 percent higher than in 2013, MLS data shows.

“I’m looking forward to 2015,” said Mike Gain, CEO and president of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest Real Estate in Seattle. “It’s just going to be a very healthy, steady year. I don’t think we’ll see price increases off the charts.”

The initial version of the Seattle Times story focused primarily on the very slight decrease in annual sales rather than the crazy low supply of listings on the market. The story was updated before the end of the day to this version, which has a more complete view.

It’s interesting that Mike Gain gave the Seattle Times a much more toned-down quote than what he provided to the NWMLS for their press release.

Seattle P-I

Aubrey Cohen: Supply of homes for sale falls even more

It’s getting even harder to find a home to buy in the Seattle area, according to a new report.

King County had just 1.39 months’ worth of houses for sale, at the current sales pace, in December, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Tuesday. That’s down from 1.74 months last December and 1.96 months in November, and well below the four to six months considered balanced between buyers and sellers.

Supply is even tighter in Seattle itself, at 0.86 months, down from 1.19 months a year earlier and 1.25 months in November.

“It’s phenomenal,” said Stephen O’Connor, director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington.

Inventory fell because new listings ticked down slightly from a year ago in Seattle and countywide, while sales jumped 15 percent and 10.5 percent, respectively. O’Connor speculated that buyers are acting now because they see mortgage interest rates going up, along with prices.

Hmm, what happened to Glenn Krellin? Can’t say I’m a fan of the breathless tone of the quote provided by his stand-in Stephen O’Connor. I mean, tight supply is an interesting phenomenon, but calling it “phenomenal” has a strong positive implication that I doubt many home buyers would agree with.

Everett Herald Business Journal

Dan Catchpole: County housing market finishes strong in 2014

The housing market in Snohomish County and around metro Puget Sound finished strong in 2014.
Residential sales and median home prices climbed in December compared to the same month last year, according to data released Tuesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
But while more houses and condos sold, new listings did not keep pace. The county’s only has enough homes for sale to feed demand for about two months, according to NWMLS. King County has lowest supply of listings. It has less than six weeks of supply.

Hey, the Herald decided to post something this month. There isn’t much “meat” in their story, but it’s better than nothing.

Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian

John Gillie: Median home prices jump nearly 10 percent in 2014 in Pierce County; 7 percent in Thurston

A tight housing market where demand is outpacing supply could drive prices higher for Western Washington homes and condominiums, real estate experts are predicting for the coming year.

Over the past year through December, median home prices have jumped by 6.41 percent in King County, 6.68 percent in Thurston County and nearly double digits, 9.76 percent, in Pierce County, according to new December 2014 statistics from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

The median home and condo sales prices in December in King County increased from $375,900 in December 2013 to $400,000 last month. In Pierce County, the median sales prices increased from $205,000 to $225,000 in that same period. Thurston County’s sales prices jumped from $224,950 to $239,975 from December 2013 to December 2014, said the listing service.

While home prices were moving the right direction for sellers, the market has yet to return to pre-recession highs, said Michael Robinson, residential investment specialist at Windermere Professional Partners in Tacoma. That high was $285,000. The low in February of 2012 was $185,000.
…
Robinson said that as long as interest rates remain low, the Pierce County market is affordable to many potential buyers.
…
“Prices, interest rates and rents will continue to rise,” said Mike Gain, chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest Real Estate in Seattle. “The cost of buying a home is not determined by price alone but by price and the mortgage rate,” he said. “The longer a buyer waits, the higher the mortgage payment as prices and interest rates continue to increase,” Gain said in a news release.

And the bait has been taken. Buy now! Don’t wait!

Puget Sound Business Journal

Marc Stiles: Puget Sound region sees huge jump in million-dollar home sales in 2014

The prospect of higher interest rates spurred home-buying activity last month in the greater Seattle area, where the number of pending sales hit the highest level in nine years.

Sales of million-dollar-plus properties in King County jumped significantly last year. According to the MLS, nearly 2,000 homes priced at $1 million and up sold in 2014. That’s up more than 25 percent compared to 2013.
…
Reflecting the strong regional economy, the overall housing market is firing on all cylinders.

I rather doubt that sales volume has much to do with “the prospect of higher interest rates.” More likely it’s entirely due to the last bit quoted there: the Seattle area’s roaring economy.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 01.06.2015)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 01.06.2015)
(Dan Catchpole, Everett Herald Business Journal, 01.06.2015)
(John Gillie, Tacoma News Tribune, 01.06.2015)
(John Gillie, The Olympian, 01.06.2015)
(Marc Stiles, Puget Sound Business Journal, 01.06.2015)

The post December Reporting Roundup: “Buy Now, Don’t Wait!” Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Real estate brokers say showings, offers "still going strong" despite "seasonally adjusted" inventory

Buyer interest remains high and many good values exist for those whose holiday wish list includes a new home, according to brokers with Northwest Multiple Listing Service. A new report from the MLS summarizing November activity shows year-over-year gains in pending sales, closed sales and median prices.
…
“The holiday season is in full swing and the most special gift this year is that interest rates have dropped down to touch the upper 3 percent range. Interest rates at this low level are considered unbelievable,” said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.

Unbelievable indeed. Let’s see what NWMLS press releases earlier this year were saying about interest rates, and where those rates were at the time…

March, rates at 4.28%

For sellers on the fence, [MLS director George Moorhead of Bentley Properties in Bothell] recommends “stepping forward,” saying “interest rates will rise this year.”

April, rates at 4.41%

“There are many reasons potential sellers should consider selling now,” said Mike Gain, CEO and president of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest Real Estate in Seattle. …interest rates are still very low but will likely rise, he noted.

July, rates at 4.12%

Stenvers, the office managing broker at John L. Scott in Bellingham, said buyers would be “well advised” to monitor interest rates, since they have a tendency to move up as summer winds down.

As of last week average interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage are at 3.97%. Here’s some free advice to the NWMLS PR team: Maybe don’t let your brokers make predictions about where interest rates will go.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: King County median home price up 6.3 percent over year ago

Over the past 12 months, the median price of single-family homes in King County has risen 6.3 percent. The steepest increase has been in North King County, where the median price is $390,000, up 13 percent. Southwest King County’s median price of $255,000 was down 2 percent over the year, the only submarket to post an annual price decline.

This month’s article in the Times is fairly brief and matter-of-fact. Nothing much to comment on.

Seattle P-I

Aubrey Cohen: Still few homes for sale, many buyers in Seattle area

Prospective Seattle-area homebuyers hoping for more selection won’t find any hope in the latest market data.

King County had just 1.96 months worth of homes on the market at the current sales pace in November, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Thursday. That’s down from 2.15 months of inventory a year earlier and 2.01 months this October, and well below the four to six months considered balanced between buyers and sellers.

Similar story in the P-I. Short and to the point.

Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian

John Gillie: Home prices moving upward in the Puget Sound area

November saw double digit increases in home and condo median sale prices in both Pierce and Kitsap counties and healthy single-digit increases in King and Thurston counties, new figures from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service show.
…
In the South Sound, said Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma, broker interest is brisk because of concern that interest rates could jump.

“Broker interest remains high partially because many buyers feel interest rates could rise next year, and they realize now is a good time to take advantage of rates under 4 percent,” he said.

Yeah, those darn interest rates. Gonna rise any day now. Better jump in quick.

Puget Sound Business Journal

Marc Stiles: Housing prices climb as inventory drops in Puget Sound area

People are still hot to buy houses and condos in the Seattle metro area, where pending sales last month reached a nearly eight-year high for November. But for now buyers have fewer options because the number of residences on the market is dropping.

Pretty much everyone barely did more than drop in a few stats and quote the press release this month. Overall not a very exciting or interesting set of articles.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 12.04.2014)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 12.04.2014)
(John Gillie, Tacoma News Tribune, 12.04.2014)
(John Gillie, The Olympian, 12.04.2014)
(Marc Stiles, Puget Sound Business Journal, 12.04.2014)

The post November Reporting Roundup: Let’s Predict Interest Rates appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here are some of their starting assumptions:

p. 6 – Existing housing does not meet the needs of many current residents. Households are increasingly burdened by their housing costs.

p. 10 – The gap between demand and availability of affordable housing is greatest for lower income households, including family-sized households. Workers in some of the city’s most common occupations are priced out of living in Seattle.

p. 15 – In a growing City, new housing supply is necessary but not sufficient to achieve affordability.

The claim that new housing supply alone is not sufficient to achieve affordability is based on data that shows that (unsurprisingly) typical new housing stock rents and sells for considerably more than existing homes.

I would argue that new supply could be sufficient to achieve affordability if there were enough new supply. The city is predicting that 70,000 new housing units will be built in the next 20 years. Imagine if the city adjusted zoning, permitting, and incentives such that 700,000 new housing units came on the market instead. There is no way that would not drive prices down dramatically.

I’m not saying that’s the best solution, but it definitely seems like something that could work.

You can give your own input in three upcoming evening meetings (6:00 PM – 8:30 PM):

• November 19, South Seattle: Ethiopian Community Center
• November 20, Central District: Garfield Community Center
• December 04, Northgate: Olympic View Elementary

Here’s their full slide deck.

Thanks to reader Shane for pointing me to WSB’s post.

The post Seattle Advisory Committee to Study Affordable Housing appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In June.

Of last year.

So what could possibly cause a home to be pending for seventeen months and counting? John Gillie at the Tacoma News Tribune has the story.

Weyerhaeuser mansion owners and neighborhood remain locked in a dispute

A long-simmering dispute over the use of Tacoma’s former Weyerhaeuser mansion as an event site appears headed for a showdown in early December before a city hearing examiner.
…
The mansion’s current owner, Oregon-based Corban University, is seeking to sell the 1923-vintage English Tudor mansion, a chapel and classroom building on the grounds to Seattle-based Blue Ribbon Cooking School. Blue Ribbon has been leasing the mansion and its grounds from the university for two years as a venue for weddings, parties and corporate events.
…
Those events, say the mansion’s neighbors, have created chaos along the tree-lined streets near the mansion as event goers used the streets for parking, have brought their boisterous behavior outside the mansion gates as they leave late at night and have raised the decibel level of the neighborhood with loud music.
…
Corban University confirmed that Blue Ribbon still has an agreement to buy the mansion subject to its obtaining a permit that will allow it to operate the venue profitably.

Sounds like a load of fun for everyone!

The post The Longest Pending Sale appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Brokers say home buyers are back, but they’re choosy

Home buyers are back, and they’re savvy and selective, according to officials who commented on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
“Watching some markets around the Puget Sound is like watching a championship tennis match, first a buyers’ market, then a sellers’ market,” remarked George Moorhead, a board member for the multiple listing service. “As these shifts become more of a blend, as they have the last 18 months, we will see good balance and stability in our market with healthy growth and competition,” stated Moorhead, the designated broker and owner of Bentley Properties/America’s Home Caretakers in Bothell.

Blah blah blah. How long can you talk without really saying anything? According to this month’s NWMLS press release, about 1,200 words, at least. It’s hard to blame them though. There really isn’t much interesting going on in the market right now. Just the typical seasonal slowdown and the three-year-old story of low inventory.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: Borrowing becomes easier as housing market softens

As the housing market slows, borrowers with tarnished credit are finding an opening to qualify for mortgages and own a home again.

Over the summer, mortgage-buying giant Fannie Mae notified lenders it was reducing the waiting period for borrowers who’ve been foreclosed to qualify again. While lenders know about the policy changes, the public is largely unaware of it, mortgage bankers say.

“It is easier for people to qualify now than it was even six months ago,” said Kim Toskey, president of the Washington Homeownership Resource Center, a nonprofit that fields calls from homeowners in financial crisis and links first-time homebuyers to classes.

David Floan, executive vice president of loan production at Evergreen Home Loans, said news of the changes hasn’t trickled down to prospective buyers.

“It’s going to allow more first-time homebuyers into the marketplace,” he said.

That could be welcome news to a housing market that’s softened from last year’s frantic pace.

I don’t think anyone who has purchased a home this year would describe the current market as “soft.” It seems like the last thing we need is policies that serve to increase demand when we’re already in a high demand / low supply situation.

Seattle P-I

Aubrey Cohen: Area house prices, sales up; inventory down

People are buying more homes and paying more for them, but fewer are for sale, according to a new report.
…
People who might traditionally consider selling their homes to move up or downsize may be deciding not to because they don’t want to take part in the frenzy as buyers, according to Stephen O’Connor, director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington.

“It’s a very real conversation that people who are in their homes right now I’m sure are having,” he said in an interview Wednesday. Meanwhile, there are few options for new construction in Seattle.

O’Connor predicted the local housing market would remain “robust” through the end of the year.

So what’s new?

Everett Herald

Herald Business Journal Staff: Snohomish County sees 17 percent jump in home prices year-over-year

Snohomish County saw a spike in the price of sold homes in October compared with the same month a year ago, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
The county also saw an increase in the number of pending sales last month. The listing service reported 1,327 pending sales in October compared with 1,219 for the same month the year before, or an increase of 8.86 percent.

Still, real estate agents cautioned that home sellers need to price their home correctly from the start, said Kathy Estey, a member of the listing services board of directors, in the statement.

This month’s Herald article is basically nothing more than a minor rewrite of the press release.

Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian

Rolf Boone: South Sound housing market steady in October

The South Sound housing market had a decent-to-good October as home sales and median prices bumped higher, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Wednesday.

But the bigger news for the housing market might be which direction mortgage interest rates head now that the Federal Reserve ended its bond-buying program last week, also known as “quantitative easing,” which injected more than $4 trillion into the economy to keep it afloat during the recession.

So far, average national mortgage rates for a 30-year mortgage remain low, although they have climbed to 3.98 percent from 3.92 percent in the past two weeks, according to Freddie Mac data.

Mark Kitabayashi of Windermere Real Estate Puyallup thinks that mortgage rates will trickle up slowly, although not more than 1 percentage point for a while, he said.

What effect this might have on the housing market is still to be seen because it is coming off a “great spring and summer,” Kitabayashi said.

It will definitely be interesting to see how the market reacts if rates really do go up a full percentage point over the next 6-12 months.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 11.05.2014)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 11.05.2014)
(Herald Business Journal Staff, Everett Herald, 11.05.2014)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune / The Olympian, 11.05.2014)

The post October Reporting Roundup: Nothing New Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Well this is interesting.

Redfin was one of the last real estate search sites to integrate Walk Score into their listing pages. Today Redfin announced that they have acquired Walk Score.

From Redfin’s blog post:

The acquisition is Redfin’s first and the reason for it is simple: We want to give folks a complete portrait of what it would be like to live somewhere new, within the house and in the surrounding neighborhood.

Since developing its original idea, Walk Score has become an online authority on neighborhoods, adding cycling and transit metrics to the mix, and delivering 20 million scores per day through 30,000 partner sites. Even better, Walk Score has rental homes. This is all stuff that Redfin needs on its own site.

Redfin, meanwhile, with its membership in the Multiple Listing Services used by agents to list properties, is the authority on homes for sale; as a broker, we can also convert traffic into lasting, profitable customer relationships. We have a full suite of mobile applications.

The two businesses together nicely address one another’s needs: for Redfin, richer content about neighborhoods; for Walk Score, homes for sale to engage its online visitors, and a way to convert those visitors into happy, paying customers.

I’m honestly quite surprised that Zillow did not acquire Walk Score first, with as many companies as they have been swallowing up lately (StreetEasy, HotPads, Trulia, etc.).

The really interesting thing about this move is that it instantly gives Redfin a national footprint without compromising the superior quality of their real estate listing data. I’m very intrigued to see what they do in the coming years with their combined resources.

Read more coverage elsewhere:

• Redfin Blog: Redfin Buys Walk Score!
• Walk Score Blog: A Look Back and A Look Ahead
• Geekwire: Redfin buys Walk Score, marking first acquisition in company history
• Inman News: Redfin’s first acquisition: Walk Score
• Seattle Times: Online home broker Redfin acquires walkability data site
• TechFlash (PSBJ): Redfin buys Seattle walkability startup Walk Score as competition heats up
• Wired: Redfin Buys Startup to Make Online Home-Hunting a Little Less Maddening

The post Redfin Gains Instant National Footprint With Acquisition of Walk Score appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Home Sales Stay Strong but Prices Approaching "Affordability Ceiling" for Some Buyers

Commenting on September’s activity, industry veteran Gary O’Leyar said he expects the Greater Puget Sound real estate market will maintain a “healthy glow” in 2015 so long as there is no radical increase in interest rates. “I foresee a general leveling off in overall market activity as prices approach the affordability ceiling for many buyers,” remarked O’Leyar, the designated broker/owner of Prudential Signature Properties in Seattle.
…
OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate, noted luxury home sales in the Greater Seattle area have been very strong, with agents reporting stiff competition in certain segments of the market, especially for homes over $2 million. “I attribute this to Seattle’s economic boom, which is attracting an increasing number of high-paying, executive level professionals and international interest,” he remarked.

Despite keen interest in high-end homes, overpriced homes will not draw offers, cautioned Northwest MLS director Diedre Haines. “It is extremely important for sellers to know if their house is overpriced, it may not garner offers and will eventually sell for below market,” she declared, adding, “This is an absolute that has always been the case, in all market conditions, and all locations!”

Haines, who is regional managing broker for Snohomish County at Coldwell Banker Bain, described some of the newer inventory as not saleable or overpriced. “Today’s buyers are more savvy and educated regarding market values, so correct pricing has become the key factor in selling a home.”

If it is indeed true that “today’s buyers are more savvy and educated,” I hope that this site has contributed at least a little to that education.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: King County home prices resume their climb

September, however, was hot for King County home sales, and Seattle’s sizzled — the median price rose 12 percent from a year earlier to $517,000, the highest appreciation among the five major King County submarkets.

“It has all the classic signs of getting very, very frothy,” said Stephen O’Connor, director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington. “At some particular point in time, the market’s going to take a break.”

The real estate reporting in the Seattle Times is so much better than it was during the housing bubble. Back then the only people quoted in an article like this would have been real estate salespeople crowing about how amazing the market is and how there’s never been a better time to buy, etc. Today, the very first quote of the article is from an academic who is skeptical of the frothy market.

A+ for the Seattle Times.

Seattle P-I

Aubrey Cohen: Seattle-area home prices up again

“It’s looking pretty frothy out there,” said Stephen O’Connor, director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington. “Double-digit increases, it’s not the norm.”
…
“At the risk of sounding incredibly obvious, it is supply and demand,” O’Connor said.

Real estate reporting in the P-I was never as bad as the Times during the bubble, but it has improved over the years as well. The difference is that it’s been the same reporter the whole time, Aubrey Cohen holding down the fort, while the Times has is on their third different real estate reporter.

I do take issue with this bit though (which is just a quote from the NWMLS press release):

Chinese buyers are making “very significant purchases of prime properties,” particularly east of Seattle, according to [designated broker/owner of Prudential Signature Properties in Seattle Gary] O’Leyar. Beeson agreed, saying high prices in Vancouver and San Francisco are pushing these buyers here.

Again, where’s the data? Agents keep making these claims without providing any data or even really quantifying their statements. What is “very significant purchases”? Is it a small number of expensive, high-profile homes, or a large number of homes? Show me the data on this alleged Chinese boom.

Everett Herald

Herald Business Journal Staff: Snohomish County home sales jump 15.5 percent

Pending sales for Snohomish County homes jumped 15.48 percent in September compared with the same month of the previous year, according to statistics released Monday from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

The number of homes with pending sales rose to 1,328 last month from 1,150 in 2013. Every area of the county saw an increase in the number sales.
…
One novelty of the market is the number of international buyers, especially from China, who are picking up prime homes in the Puget Sound area particularly east of Seattle.

“The influx of buyers from China is very real,” O’Leyar said.

A big increase in pending sales is interesting, but pending sales are not closed sales, and many in fact do not close (we’ll post the latest numbers on that next week). It’s a bit misleading to headline the article with a pending sales stat. And again with quoting the Chinese buyers bit from the press release without pressing anyone for data. Tsk.

Tacoma News Tribune

Rolf Boone: South Sound housing market wraps up summer on positive note

The South Sound housing market wrapped up summer on a positive note in September as the number of home sales and median prices continued on an upward trend in Pierce and Thurston counties.

But this time the Thurston County housing market stood out in September, while the housing gains in Pierce County have taken on a steady quality, according to data released late Monday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Not much more here this week than a mild rehash of the press release.

The Olympian

Rolf Boone: South Sound housing market wraps up summer on positive note
It’s literally the exact same article that was in the News Tribune.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 10.06.2014)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 10.06.2014)
(Herald Business Journal Staff, Everett Herald, 10.06.2014)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 10.06.2014)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 10.06.2014)

The post September Reporting Roundup: “China is Very Real” Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

…increasingly, China’s rich are also offshoring their families along with their cash. That’s created a real estate boom in an unlikely corner of the United States: suburban Seattle.

Wealthy Chinese have become far and away the biggest foreign buyers of real estate in Seattle in recent years, accounting for up to one-third of $1-million-plus homes sold in certain areas, brokers say. Seattle real estate agents are hiring Mandarin speakers and even opening offices in Beijing. Builders are designing much of their new construction for Chinese buyers.
…
That’s made Seattle one of the world’s top catch basins for the billions of dollars spilling out of China every year. While foreign money has also been pouring into New York, Los Angeles and London real estate, the impact of the Chinese rich on Seattle is far more concentrated, focused on a few small, upscale suburbs. They’re especially attracted to Medina — home to Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos — and the West Bellevue area. “The first question you often hear from Chinese clients is ‘Where does Bill Gates live?'” said Moya Skillman, a broker with Windermere Real Estate.

Brokers and analysts say 20 to 40 percent of $1 million-plus homes sold on the Eastside — a collective term for eastern suburbs of Seattle — were purchased by Chinese buyers.

A $1.1 million listing in West Bellevue recently attracted 24 bidders, virtually all of them Chinese, and the home quickly sold for $1.4 million. Ms. Wan said a $2.5 million lakefront property recently sold with three offers, just days after coming onto the market.

There are a lot of anecdotes in the story, while the only data they cite is the “20 to 40 percent” number from “brokers and analysts.” I’d be interested to know more about exactly how they’re defining that and where they’re getting the data from.

Here’s some data I pulled on single-family sales volume over the last three months in King County and across some of the popular upscale eastside zip codes.

So taking the high end of the “20 to 40 percent” estimate, we’re talking about around 50 sales in the last three months, out of 6,400 county-wide—0.8 percent of all sales.

The story is certainly interesting, but I’d hardly call it a trend that’s likely to affect many homebuyers in the Seattle area.

I did like this part though:

Their attraction to Seattle stems from its top schools, clean air, longtime Chinese population and, more recently, a hit movie. The 2013 film “Beijing Meets Seattle” (or “Finding Mr. Right” in English) became one of China’s top-grossing films of all time, telling the story of a pregnant woman who flies to Seattle to find true love and American citizenship for her baby. The film struck a chord with younger Chinese, who saw Seattle as a liberating, romantic escape from the intense materialism of China (even though much of the movie was filmed in Vancouver).

“People my age in China suddenly started talking about Seattle,” said Bangze Wang, a Beijing native who now lives in Seattle.

I fully expect the movie to be fairly terrible, but I kind of want to see it now. Anyone up for a viewing party?

The post A Chinese-Driven “Real Estate Boom” in Seattle? No. appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Western Washington housing market stability continues with modest gains in sales, prices

“Stability” seemed to characterize the direction of Western Washington’s housing market during August, according to new figures from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
“What we are seeing now with the market is a moderated growth in appreciation, a normalizing of sales volume, and continued health overall,” declared MLS director George Moorhead, the owner and designated broker at Bentley Properties in Bothell. “It is not a call for alarm,” Moorhead emphasized, describing it as “just a balancing and adjusting of a healthy market.”
…
“The current trend for strong pending activities and solid closed transaction numbers should keep the confidence level steady,” remarked Darin Stenvers, chairman of the board of directors at Northwest MLS. “Buoyed by low mortgage rates, buyers should remain optimistic about their new home purchases late into 2014,” he added.

Stenvers, the branch manager at John L. Scott in Bellingham, expects the balance of 2014 will remain at a slow and steady pace of appreciation, which should help distressed sellers. “Sellers should reevaluate the market as they may be surprised at the current values,” he suggests.

Like I said yesterday, this month’s release just seems really somber compared to the usual tone of these things.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Coral Garnick: King County home prices in August up from year ago

J. Lennox Scott, CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, said even though prices dropped around King County this month, the market is still hot. “We’re just talking about a few degrees lower of hotness,” he said.

That Lennox Scott. Always good for a laugh. I’m definitely going to save that quote for later. Comedy gold right there.

Seattle P-I

Aubrey Cohen: Seattle house prices down from July’s record

Higher prices and lack of inventory are contributing to a decline in sales, with closed sales down 12 percent in Seattle and 6.9 percent countywide. Pending sales, which don’t all close, but can be the best indicator of recent activity, fell 3.5 percent in the city and 2.2 percent across King County.

Some of the dropoff in sales may be due to people getting frustrated with not being able to find a home to buy, or getting outbid by other buyers, and deciding to sit on the sidelines, said Stephen O’Connor, director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington. “People are kind of exhausted.”

Yeah, that’s the ticket. People are just tired! They just need a good nap and the market will perk right back up.

Tacoma News Tribune

Rolf Boone: July was good, August a little better for South Sound home sales

Home sales fell nearly 7 percent in August, while median prices inched up about 1 percent. The challenge? King County has only a two month’s supply of homes for sale, the combined data show.

And that’s increasingly the challenge in Pierce and Thurston counties. Although the number of homes for sale rose nearly 12 percent in Pierce County and 5 percent in Thurston County, that still equates to less than a four month’s supply of homes on the market at the current pace of sales.
…
But Mike Larson, president and designated broker of Allen Realtors in Lakewood, wasn’t too concerned about the lower inventory level in Pierce County because at one time a two-and-a-half month to three-and-a-half month’s supply of homes was once considered the norm.

“It’s slow and steady and trending in the right direction,” he said about the market. “Balanced and moderate is a lot better than the ups and downs we saw for years.”

This month we get a more in-depth article than we usually find on the web from the News Tribune or the Olympian.

The Olympian

Rolf Boone: July was good, August a little better for South Sound home sales
Same story in the News Tribune and Olympian again.

(Coral Garnick, Seattle Times, 09.04.2014)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 09.04.2014)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 09.04.2014)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 09.04.2014)

The post August Reporting Roundup: No Call For Alarm Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Western Washington housing market in "recovery mode" but some brokers say it’s still not at full potential

More sellers listed their homes for sale during July compared to a year ago, but brokers with Northwest Multiple Listing Service say inventory remains “well below” what is considered to be a balanced market.
…
“Some agents and firms are beginning to feel the summer doldrums, while others are experiencing a definite increase in activity,” observed Diedre Haines, regional managing broker-Snohomish County for Coldwell Banker Bain. Haines, a director with Northwest MLS, described price increases as “healthy, not exorbitant,” adding, “Thankfully we are not seeing signs of a bubble and instead are seeing realistic appreciation.”
…
Matt Deasy, general manager at Windermere Real Estate/East in Bellevue, said King County’s slowly improving supply should reduce “the frenzy pace we experienced in the spring,” although he was quick to point out that highly desired neighborhoods remain frenzied.
…
Mike Gain, CEO and president of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest Real Estate, also commented on supply. “Although the housing inventory locally is up slightly, we just don’t have enough of the right inventory in the right neighborhoods to satisfy the demand. Our inventory today in King County is under 1.9 months’ supply,” he lamented, noting that’s well below the normal level of 5-to-6 months. “The lack of supply leads to multiple offers and many properties selling for above their list prices.”
…
Looking ahead, brokers are upbeat:

“A growing economy, job growth, pent up demand, competitive mortgage rates, affordable home prices and low unemployment will keep housing moving on an upward trajectory,” predicts Gain.

With a name like “Gain,” how can you predict anything but a perpetual upward trajectory?

Overall these NWMLS press releases are starting to feel more and more like the ones that were published in the year or so leading up to the market peak and subsequent crash. I’m definitely starting to get nervous again.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Coral Garnick and Sanjay Bhatt: Seattle median home price leaps past 2007 peak

The median price of single-family homes sold in Seattle rose last month to $543,500, blowing away the last peak of $501,000 set in August 2007 — before the housing bubble burst and the country went into the Great Recession.

It’s too soon to say whether the Seattle market can sustain that level; in June the median price of homes sold was $499,000. Nationally, in July existing homes in the top 20 markets were 18 percent short of their summer 2006 peak, as measured by the S&P Case-Shiller index.

“The Seattle marketplace is a very special place in the nation because of our robust job sector,” said J. Lennox Scott, CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “We are just in one of those places in the nation where this recovery took place, and all the fundamentals are in place for it to continue.”

“Seattle is special” is such a cliché phrase used to justify otherwise unreasonable home prices that we gave it its own tag on Seattle Bubble back in 2006. Lennox trotting it out again is yet another sign that we might be back in bubble territory.

Seattle P-I

Aubrey Cohen: Seattle’s median house price tops 2007 peak

“Certainly those are extreme pricing numbers,” Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington, said Wednesday.
…
A big reason for the price increases is a continued shortage of homes, despite some improvement in July.
…
“Obviously we’ve still got an inventory issue,” Crellin said. “That’s not a healthy supply for the market.”

Crellin said he expected that months of talk about the inventory shortage, along with prices rising to the point where people who bought during the peak would no longer be underwater, would have spurred more owners to list their homes.

People just don’t want to move, apparently, and many of those that do seem to be content to hang onto their home as a rental.

Once again, the Everett Herald has no story, so here’s a piece in the PSBJ instead.

Puget Sound Business Journal

Marc Stiles: Still too tight: Limited number of Seattle houses for sale drives prices higher

More houses were for sale last month in the Puget Sound region compared to this time last year, but the inventory was still way too limited, area Realtors said Wednesday.
…
For months, real estate agents have been clamoring for more houses and condos to sell. They’re starting to get their wish, albeit slowly. In the four counties, the number of residences on the market climbed to nearly 14,700 in July, or around 1,550 more than a year ago.

Listings, listings, listings!

Tacoma News Tribune

Rolf Boone: South Sound housing market shows strength in July

The summer home-buying season finally kicked into gear in South Sound as sales and median prices rose in July, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Wednesday.

Pierce County home sales barely inched higher last month, but the county still recorded 1,205 homes sold, the most units sold in one month this year, the combined single-family residence and condo data show. Median prices rose more than 4 percent to $230,000 in July from $220,000 in July 2013.

It’s all about those listings, boss.

The Olympian

Rolf Boone: South Sound housing market shows strength in July

The summer home-buying season finally kicked into gear in South Sound as sales and median prices rose in July, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Wednesday.
…
Thurston County, meanwhile, had one of its best months all year as sales and median prices both rose last month. Sales climbed to 362 units last month from 342 units in the same period a year ago, while median prices inched up nearly 3 percent to $234,950 from $228,500 in the same year-over-year period, the combined data show.

One factor that might be influencing the market is that there are not a whole lot of homes to choose from. Although inventory levels are higher than they were a year ago – up 19 percent in Pierce County and nearly 15 percent in Thurston County – it still equates to less than four months’ supply of homes in Pierce County, while Thurston County is right at four months, the combined data show.

It’s literally the same exact article as The News Tribune.

(Coral Garnick and Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 08.06.2014)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 08.06.2014)
(Marc Stiles, Puget Sound Business Journal, 08.06.2014)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 08.07.2014)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 08.06.2014)

The post July Reporting Roundup: Totally Not Another Bubble Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

No Summer Slowdown Expected – Brisk Activity Reported

Listing activity perked up during June, but strong job growth in the Seattle/King County region has brokers predicting brisk sales with competitive bidding throughout the summer.
…
“We are still suffering from low inventory in parts of Snohomish County, and we’re still seeing multiple offers on the majority of new listings,” reported Diedre Haines, regional managing broker in Snohomish County for Coldwell Banker Bain and a director with Northwest MLS. She described the market as “strange,” adding, “We are not feeling or sensing the onset of a typical summer slowdown.”
…
John Deely, principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle, expects the brisk market to continue into fall, citing low interest rates, increasing prices and inventory, and high demand as drivers of the positive activity.

“Brokers in the Seattle market are keeping busy as multiple offers and cash buyers dominate new, well priced listings in most markets,” commented Deely, a director with Northwest MLS. The market for homes priced at $1 million and up around Seattle is experiencing pending sales volume at levels not seen since 2007, according to his analysis.
…
J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, shares the optimism. Pointing to recent reports on the addition of 14,400 jobs in the tri-county area (more than any two month period since the beginning of 2007), he expects a “red hot summer selling season.” Scott also credits lower interest rates with fueling what he described as a “mini power surge of sales.”

Wow this month’s press release reads like someone sneaked into the NWMLS office and stole the diary where they write down their their affirmations. If you say something enough times, maybe it will come true!

There will be no summer slowdown.
There will be no summer slowdown.
There will be no summer slowdown.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Coral Garnick: King County home prices up 6 percent over year

Summer has eased the drought of available homes for sale in Greater Seattle, and sales are growing at a pace not seen previously this year.

After five months of declining sales activity compared with a year earlier, the number of June sales was up 2 percent annually, and the supply of homes for sale grew by almost 6 percent, according to a report Thursday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

The larger inventory hasn’t lessened competition among buyers in the most sought-after areas, said Mike Gain, president of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest Real Estate.

“We don’t have enough supply of homes for sale in desirable neighborhoods to satisfy the demand,” he said. “In those areas, it is just like a feeding frenzy when a house goes on the market,” he said.

I don’t think I’ve seen a real estate piece by Coral Garnick before. Decent first outing, but something more than quotes from home salesmen and a couple of anecdotes would have been nice. Perhaps Glenn Crellin was out for the holiday and unavailable to comment.

Seattle P-I

Aubrey Cohen: Home supply ticks up but remains tight

King County’s supply of houses for sale continued to improve, slowly, in June, even though sales rose for the first time this year, according to a new report. Seattle inventory got even tighter.

The county had 1.8 months of inventory, at the current sales pace, in June, up from 1.74 months of inventory a year earlier and 1.79 months in May, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Thursday. That’s still well below the four to six months of inventory generally considered the balance zone between supply and demand.

Inventory actually fell in Seattle, from 1.4 months a year ago and 1.26 months in May to 1.23 months this June.

Not much more than a few stats and press release quotes in this month’s P-I story. I guess releasing the numbers before the holiday weekend meant nobody really had time to write a very in-depth story.

Tacoma News Tribune

Kathleen Cooper: Pierce, Thurston counties see higher home sale prices in June

Western Washington’s real estate market continued its steady improvement in June, data released Thursday show.
…
Big institutional investors are still major players, said Diedre Haines, a broker and NWMLS director.
…
As of the end of September, those two plus one other private investor were responsible for almost one in 10 purchases of single family homes in Pierce County.

American Homes 4 Rent has slowed its activity, but not Invitation Homes. Since Oct. 1 of last year, various limited liability companies affiliated with Invitation Homes have bought almost 300 more properties in Pierce County, government sales data show. That makes Blackstone the owner of about 950 homes in Pierce County alone. By comparison, American Homes 4 Rent has added fewer than a dozen properties to the 185 it purchased last year.

In a bit of a twist this month, the Tacoma News Tribune has one of the more in-depth articles, tying the NWMLS numbers to original research they’ve done recently on the big institutional buyers.

The Olympian

Kathleen Cooper: Thurston County sees higher home sale prices in June

Western Washington’s real estate market continued its steady improvement in June, data released Thursday show.

Median sale prices for single family homes and condos rose year-over-year between 5 percent and 7 percent in King, Pierce and Thurston counties. Pierce’s median sales price in June was almost $230,000. Thurston’s hit $236,000.

Not much more than a short blurb in the online edition of The Olympian this month.

(Coral Garnick, Seattle Times, 07.03.2014)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 07.03.2014)
(Kathleen Cooper, Tacoma News Tribune, 07.03.2014)
(Kathleen Cooper, The Olympian, 07.04.2014)

The post June Reporting Roundup: Affirmations Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Housing Market Righting Itself as Buyers, Brokers Get Creative to Compete

Housing around Western Washington is on an upward trajectory, but inadequate inventory “in the right prices and locations” makes for a “very difficult market for purchasers and brokers,” according to an executive with one multi-office real estate company.

New figures from Northwest Multiple Listing Service show inventory increased in May compared to a year ago, but brokers say competition is keen. “Multiple offers and escalation clauses occur on a regular basis for properties that are extremely well priced and in great condition,” reports Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma.

Mike Gain, a former chairman of the Northwest MLS board of directors, also commented on the bidding wars. “We are experiencing more multiple offers than I have experienced in my 35 years of practicing real estate in this marketplace,” stated Gain, the president and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest Real Estate.

There are definitely a lot listings that receive multiple offers, but the trend is actually cooling off compared to a year ago, with 62 percent of Seattle-area offers facing competition in March 2014 vs. 72 percent a year earlier.

[Windermere President OB] Jacobi said there’s also an increase in the number of cash buyers…

Also false. All-cash deals are also not really increasing. They shot up dramatically between 2007 and 2011, but have basically been flat since then.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: Home prices rise as fewer properties change hands

The median price of homes sold last month in King County was $442,250, almost 6 percent higher than a year ago.

But for the fifth consecutive month, sales activity is down annually: Almost 8 percent fewer homes sold in May than a year ago, even though the supply of for-sale homes grew by nearly 11 percent, according to figures published Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Sanjay must have had other priorities this week, as the Seattle Times article on this month’s data is unusually short and lightweight.

Seattle P-I

Aubrey Cohen: Seattle area had more houses for sale in May

Homebuyers had more options in May, although inventory remained low, according to a new report.
…
The continued shortage of inventory has prompted sellers to set deadlines for when they will review offers, and buyers to get pre-inspections, submit offers before the deadline and, increasingly, make all-cash offers, Windermere Real Estate President OB Jacobi said in the release. He said a balancing out of the market “probably isn’t going to happen any time soon.”

Aubrey actually quotes from yesterday’s stats preview post as well, which doesn’t leave me much to comment on without commenting on my own comments. And that would just be weird.

Everett Herald

Jim Davis: Number of homes for sale in Snohomish County surges

The number of homes on the market in Snohomish County far surpasses the number a year ago, continuing a streak seen this spring.
…
The higher number of homes on the market is attributed in part to new construction, George Moorhead, a member of the NWLS Board of Directors, said in a statement.

The MLS database shows 406 of 2,206 listings of single-family homes in the county are classified as new construction. That’s about twice the number from a year ago.

This is an interesting theory, and makes some sense. I haven’t really dug into what’s driving the big surge in listings in Snohomish County, but I’ll see if I can look into this soon.

Tacoma News Tribune

Kathleen Cooper: Home sales, prices and inventory all up for Pierce

Pierce County’s median sale prices, number of closed sales and number of homes for sale all went up in May, according to statistics released Wednesday.
…
Though there are 21 percent more homes and condos for sale in Pierce County than a year ago, brokers say competition is fierce.

Just the basic facts and a few quotes from the release in this month’s News Tribune piece.

The Olympian

Kathleen Cooper: Median sales price of homes, condos steady in Thurston County

Thurston County’s median sale prices of homes and condos held steady in May while the number of closed sales decreased, according to statistics released Wednesday.
…
More homes are on the market in Thurston County. Though inventory increased by almost 19 percent compared with a year ago, brokers say competition is fierce.

Hmm that sounds familiar.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 06.04.2014)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 06.04.2014)
(Jim Davis, Everett Herald, 06.05.2014)
(Kathleen Cooper, Tacoma News Tribune, 06.05.2014)
(Kathleen Cooper, The Olympian, 06.05.2014)

The post May Reporting Roundup: Imaginary Increases Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here’s an excerpt from GeekWire’s May 1 story about the launch of Flipt:

A new Seattle startup wants to fill what it believes is a gap left by real estate sites like Zillow and Trulia.

Flipt launched today to provide home buyers and investors with detailed property information pertaining to potential investment value. The company crunches data from a variety of sources and then scores homes on three categories: Fix & Flip, Buy & Hold, or Rent.
…
Nokhrin told GeekWire that his new company differentiates from fellow real estate sites like Seattle-based Zillow and Trulia because of its complex algorithm that was developed with machine-learning capabilities.

Sounds pretty cool, right? I tried out the site the same day as the GeekWire story, and something odd immediately stuck out to me. When I pulled up my home on Flipt, they were showing a rather recognizable photo—one that I actually shot myself…

There is only one place I’ve uploaded this photo of my home with Seattle Bubble’s pink pony mascot Crystal and associated it with my address: Zillow.

Just a day after launching, all the features on the Flipt website disappeared, and everything redirected to their front page, which had been replaced with a message that said “We will be back shortly.”

This week, after that message changed to just “We will be back,” I decided to dig into the issue with the guys at GeekWire and figure out what happened. John Cook has the write-up of what we found:

Zillow slaps down Flipt, issues cease-and-desist over hijacked real estate data

The post Flipt Off appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here’s an excerpt from the Seattle Times article about the melting Antarctic ice sheet:

“A large sector of the West Antarctic ice sheet has gone into a state of irreversible retreat — it has passed the state of no return,” said Eric Rignot, with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif.

That move by itself could increase sea levels by about 4 feet, Rignot said. But it also will help set in motion other changes that could cause the ice sheet’s contribution to sea-level rise to triple to 12 feet or more.

I was curious how a 12-foot increase in sea level might affect homes around Seattle, so I pulled up the handy Surging Seas simulator by Climate Central. Their simulator only goes up to 10 feet but even at that level you can see that the increasing sea levels will have a dramatic effect on Seattle.

Here are a few highlights:

• 8,257 homes in King, Snohomish, and Pierce Counties will be literally underwater
• Most of the Snohomish River Valley and the Duwamish River Valley will become ocean.
• Lake Union and Lake Washington would both become saltwater bays.
• I-5 through Fife would be submerged (along with 30% of the city of Fife)

Although thousands of homes would end up in the Puget Sound in this scenario, that only represents about one percent of all homes in the Seattle area. Still, the overall effects on our area would most likely be quite large.

Thankfully, we’ve got a while to figure out how to handle it (the article estimates 200-1,000 years), but unfortunately, if the scientists are correct, there’s absolutely nothing we can do to stop it.

Bottom line: Buy a waterfront home in the Seattle area for yourself and your kids to enjoy, but don’t count on passing it down to your great-great grandkids.

[Update]
Apparently the visualization tool at Climate Central fails to properly account for the 20-22 foot differential between the Puget Sound and Lake Union / Lake Washington that is maintained by the Ballard Locks. Thanks to commenter Brad for pointing that out below!

The post Thousands of Seattle Homes to End Up Literally Underwater appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To get this party started, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Housing activity ranges from "red hot" to "slowly healing"

Brokers report some skittishness among both buyers and sellers, but the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service indicate the housing market is continuing to rebound.
…
“The residential market is red hot,” reported J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. He said multiple offers are the “norm” for new listings, with about two-thirds of homes near job centers selling in the first 30 days. That’s about twice the normal rate, according to Scott.
…
“We are still desperate for inventory in spite of statistics indicating we have more listings,” commented MLS director Kathy Estey. Inventory is being held back because potential sellers fear they will sell their home and not find one to move into, said Estey, the managing broker at John L. Scott in Bellevue.

The result is a catch-22 situation “because nearly no one will accept a contingent offer,” according to Estey. Also, she explained, “bridge financing is scarce and risk tolerance is low” as a result of the hangover from the recession.

It’s a RED HOT CATCH-22! The market’s simultaneously rebounding and being held back. Black is white, up is down, and slow is fast!

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: No thaw in home inventory despite April’s rising prices

Rockwell Realty’s Bui said the inventory is so tight in some areas that he’s seen houses sell for $100,000 over their list price in close-in Seattle neighborhoods like Capitol Hill and Madison Valley. Brokers are supposed to list property at fair-market value, he said, so it’s hard to see how lenders would approve financing deals so far above list price.

“Just on the face of it,” he said, “it makes you think, ‘Bubble.'”
…
Glenn Crellin, associate director for research at the University of Washington’s Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies, said he was pleased to see that April’s annual price appreciation in King County was in the single-digit range.

“I think it needs to come back down a bit more to be a balanced healthy market,” he said.

More great reporting from the Times. There are two main reason I’m not super-concerned about a bubble… yet.

First, volume is just too low. Sales volume at the height of the frenzied housing bubble around when I started this site was 40% higher than it is today. In April 2005 2,841 single family homes sold in King County. This April just 2,016 homes sold, and that number is down from last year, when 2,096 homes sold.

Second, thanks to still-crazy-low interest rates, homes are far more affordable today than they were in 2005-2008. The affordability index for King County sits at 99.7 as of April. In the year before home prices peaked during the bubble, the affordability index averaged 71.8, and hit a low point of 65.2. If home prices rise a lot more without incomes rising, or rates start to fall and home prices keep increasing, then I’ll start to get concerned.

Seattle P-I

Aubrey Cohen: Local home supply inches up, but remains tight

With the peak home-buying season approaching, there are signs that this year may be just a little less frenzied than last spring.
…
“It’s still an extreme shortage of product,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington.

Shorter story than usual this month in the P-I, but it’s nice that at least they’re still reporting, and their stories are more than just regurgitations of the NWMLS press release.

I couldn’t find a story in the Everett Herald this month.

Tacoma News Tribune

John Gillie: High percentage of distressed home sales negatively affect home prices in the South Sound

A high percentage of foreclosed and short sales home transactions last month in Pierce and Thurston counties caused median prices to take a dip in both locales, new figures from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service show.

Those statistics show the median home sales price in Pierce County last month was $215,000 in April compared with $217,000 a year earlier. That’s a 0.92 percent decline.

That’s unusual, considering that distressed sales had been decreasing in overall share of sales volume for quite some time, falling to just 14 percent the last time we checked in on those stats.

The Olympian

John Gillie: Foreclosures drive down home prices in Thurston County

A high percentage of foreclosed and short-sale home transactions last month in Thurston and Pierce counties caused median prices to take a dip in both locales, new figures from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service show.

Doh. Same exact article.

Since we were missing an article in the Herald, and the Olympian and News Tribune were duplicates of each other, here’s an article on this month’s numbers from the Puget Sound Business Journal.

Puget Sound Business Journal

Marc Stiles: Seattle area residential real estate is a Catch-22, Realtors say

Even though more houses are being offered for sale in the Puget Sound region, inventory remains ultra-tight in many areas, and King County continues to have a particularly limited supply.
…
The situation is exacerbated by anxiety among some would-be sellers. They are torn. While they want to put their residences on the market, they fear they won’t be able to find new houses to buy. That’s a Catch-22 — because it limits supply at a time when the market craves it.

Bonus points for explaining the Joseph Heller reference from the NWMLS press release.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 05.06.2014)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 05.06.2014)
(John Gillie, Tacoma News Tribune, 05.06.2014)
(John Gillie, The Olympian, 05.06.2014)
(Marc Stiles, The Olympian, 05.06.2014)

The post April Reporting Roundup: Red Hot Catch-22 Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To get this party started, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Lack of inventory is holding back sales

Northwest Multiple Listing Service brokers reported rising prices on fewer sales during March compared to a year ago, citing inventory shortages as the main reason.
…
“The only thing holding back sales is the lack of inventory,” said John Deely, a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors. He said one recent listing priced at a fair market value drew more than 40 offers. “The depth of buyer demand appears to have no bottom in the most popular price ranges,” added Deely, the principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle.

Here’s the thing. For the claim that “the only thing holding back sales is the lack of inventory” to hold any water in an environment where sales are on the decline from this same time last year, inventory would need to be flat or down from last year. In fact the opposite is true:

So there’s obviously something else that’s driving down sales beyond just a lack of inventory. I think it’s mostly due to interest rates. Many buyers who might have otherwise waited until this year to buy jumped in last year when rates were crazy low. Since rates are now on the rise, sales are starting to suffer.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: Home price rising more slowly, but for-sale signs remain scarce

A continuing tight inventory of homes for sale kept pressure on prices.

“Everyone’s waiting for the spring bounce in listings,” said Seattle economist Matthew Gardner. “We’re all hoping that’ll be the case. Without a doubt there are still more buyers than sellers.”

Still, annual price growth has been slowing: In January the median price in King County was 17 percent higher over the previous 12 months; in February, 11 percent higher.

The number of active listings every month has been higher than a year ago, but the number of pending deals — mutually accepted contracts to buy a home that haven’t closed yet — is lower than last year in all three counties, suggesting buyers are being more choosy.

As usual, a good article from Sanjay Bhatt, digging deeper than the shallow sales pitches in the NWMLS press release.

Seattle P-I

Aubrey Cohen: Home inventory, sales fell in March

So much for improving home inventory.

After starting to ease in recent months, the supply of houses for sale in King County retightened in March, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Thursday. The county had just 1.8 months of houses for sale at the current sales pace in March, down from 2.6 months of inventory in February.

Hmm. Technically true, but misleading. Months of supply always drops over the first few months of the year. Overall, inventory is (very slowly) climbing and sales are falling compared to a year ago, which removes seasonal factors.

Everett Herald

Jim Davis: Low inventory depresses county home sales

Another month, another drop in home sales.

Pending sales for homes and condominiums in Snohomish County dropped in March from the same period a year ago, according to according to numbers released Thursday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Sales fell to 1,481 last month, down from 1,576 in March 2013. That’s a 6 percent drop.

Hey, look, the Herald is back in the monthly reporting game. Welcome, Jim Davis!

Tacoma News Tribune

Rolf Boone: Pierce County home sales face tough comparison with 2013

The Pierce County housing market sold more homes in March, but it still didn’t match last year’s March totals as sales dipped nearly 2 percent, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Thursday.

Looks like we just get the short blurb version of the News Tribune’s story online this month.

The Olympian

Rolf Boone: Year-over-year home sales fall, but prices climb

The Thurston County housing market delivered a mixed bag of results for March, with sales heading in one direction, while prices went the other way, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Thursday.

Although more homes sold in March than February, last month’s sales still fell 6.8 percent from the year-ago period, falling to 246 units from 264 units in March 2013, the combined single-family residence and condo data show.

Not much of a meaty story online in the Olympian, either.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 04.03.2014)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 04.03.2014)
(Jim Davis, Everett Herald, 04.03.2014)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 04.03.2014)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 04.04.2014)

The post March Reporting Roundup: Lack of Inventory Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

West Seattle Blog: West Seattle development: 30-apartment, no-off-street parking 6917 California SW gets land-use approval

This morning the decision is in from the city Department of Planning and Development – land-use approval for the 30-apartments, no-parking-spaces project at 6917 California SW (map), with DPD determining its “environmentally non-significance,” meaning the city will NOT require a full environmental-impact report. Read the decision here.

West Seattle Blog: As-it-happened: 4755 Fauntleroy alley-vacation hearing, standing room only; vote delayed to April 8th

We’re at City Hall for the alley-vacation hearing (process explained here, same as ‘street’ vacation) for 4755 Fauntleroy before the City Council’s Transportation Committee. Standing room only. Supporters are wearing purple stickers with slogans; opponents are wearing yellow stickers with slogans.
…
First to speak, project opponent Deb Barker… She is a community organization leader and former Design Review Board member. She says the public benefits in the project package are not enough. She talks about the setbacks and says the alley vacation overall will “waste public land for profit.”

Next, project supporter Sharonn Meeks, also a community-organization leader. She notes she was “involved in this project way before it began” – that included being on the Triangle Planning Group. She calls the site “a blighted grayfield.” She says scrapping these proposal would cost time and “an excellent developer.”

Standing-room only at a meeting do decide whether a developer can build over the top of an alley? West Seattleites really care about their alleys, apparently!

Capitol Hill Seattle: Slow growth groups continue pushback on Seattle development

A petition CHS first shined a little daylight on back in spring 2013 is now getting big media play — and apparently the attention of Seattle City Council member Nick Licata.
…
You can read the entire confused thing here. In addition to the TV station article’s challenges with apostrophes, the report says organizers “are working to hand in their petitions, signatures and letters soon to city leaders.”

Capitol Hill Seattle: Hill’s ‘hard hat special’ continues with start of 7-story E Pike Mercedes project

The walls and glass are smashing down on yet another block of Pike/Pine as demolition — and preservation — work has begun at the site of the former Mercedes Benz dealership where a seven-story, mixed-use project will eventually stand on E Pike between Belmont and Boylston. What the project will look like, more on the staggering amount of Pike/Pine construction underway and video of giant Tonka toys in action, below.

Queen Anne View: Next Early Design Review for Seattle Children’s Home development set for March 19th

The proposed CamWest development for the Seattle Children’s Home site is up for another Early Design Review next Wednesday, March 19th. The developer has provided several new site plans, as well as proposed building designs, in advance of the meeting.
…
To provide feedback, attend the Early Design Guidance meeting on March 19 at the Queen Anne Community Center, 1901 1st Ave W, Room #1. The meeting begins at 6:30pm and you can find materials related to the meeting online.

The post Local Development Roundup: March 2014 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To get this party started, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Home Sales Shrink as Buyers Take a Timeout due to Inventory shortages, Seahawks Playoffs

Northwest Multiple Listing Service brokers reported 507 fewer pending sales during February than the same month in 2013, but members believe the 6.5 percent decline isn’t due to a shortage of buyers. “If we just had enough homes to sell we would easily be outpacing last year’s pending numbers,” said Mike Gain, CEO and president of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest Real Estate. “Locally, we are literally starving for inventory,” he added.
…
Another industry leader pointed not only to a “severe shortage of homes for sale” in the most sought-after price ranges, but also to the fan frenzy surrounding the Seahawks as a factor in the setback of sales. “The Seahawks’ run to the Super Bowl affected sales,” reported J. Lennox Scott. Since the Super Bowl Championship game, he said listing activity has picked up, resulting in brisk sales activity for the new, but still limited inventory.
…
The smaller selection is resulting in bidding wars for well-priced homes in some neighborhoods. Multiple offer situations are common in local markets with less than four months of inventory, according to Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma and a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors. He noted traffic has been “very good” at open houses. “These are harbingers of a medium- to fast-paced spring and summer selling seasons,” he suggested.

I just can’t comprehend why the NWMLS would choose to put that nonsense from Lennox so prominently in their press release. Do they really believe that there were people in January and February who thought to themselves… “Well honey, I know we were planning to buy a house this month, but gosh darnit, we’re just too busy watching football on Sundays! I guess we’ll just have to wait until March.” It is ridiculous on the face of it.

As I pointed out yesterday, the weakness in sales is not new nor is it just a local phenomenon. As you can see in the chart above, both pending and closed sales have been getting consistently weaker since August or September. To claim that the Seahawks had anything to do with February sales coming in lower than last year is absurd.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: Home prices dip again in King County

The area’s housing market hit a lull in February, with the second consecutive monthly slide in home sales and median prices.

Blame the Super Bowl. Or the Winter Olympics. Or Mercury retrograde.

Housing-market pundits searched for clues Wednesday in new data from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service to explain why the median price of single-family homes sold in King County in February fell to $405,400 from $410,000 in January amid little growth in the number of homes for sale.
…
“The Seahawks’ run to the Super Bowl affected sales,” suggested J. Lennox Scott, chairman of John L. Scott Real Estate, in a statement put out by the MLS. Since the championship game, he said, more homes have been listed and sold.

An even bigger factor was the continued tight inventory of homes for sale, said Glenn Crellin, associate director of research at the University of Washington’s Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies. King and Snohomish counties had less than a four-month supply of homes for sale, making it a seller’s market.

Thanks once again to Glenn Crellin for bringing some sanity to the discussion.

Seattle P-I

Aubrey Cohen: Fewer home sales, more listings drive up inventory in Seattle area

Why were sales down countywide? A continued lack of inventory is one suspect.

“If we just had enough homes to sell we would easily be outpacing last year’s pending numbers,” Mike Gain, CEO and president of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest Real Estate, said in a listing service news release. “Locally, we are literally starving for inventory.”

Glenn Crellin, associate director for research at the University of Washington Runstad Center for Real Estate Research, said the uptick in inventory makes this factor “a little bit less relevant than it has been in previous months,” although: “It’s still very tight, no question about it.”

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, argued for another factor.

“The Seahawks’ run to the Super Bowl affected sales,” he said in the news release, adding that activity has picked up since the big game.

It couldn’t be low inventory, rising interest rates, or rising prices… must have been the Seahawks! Yeah!

Everett Herald

Jim Davis: Pending home sales in county fall

Pending sales for homes and condominiums in Snohomish County dropped in February from the same month a year ago, according to numbers released Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
While there is a shortage of homes for sales, many potential home buyers stayed home glued to their televisions during the weekends in January and early February, said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.
…
With higher prices, more people will be willing to sell their homes this year, said John Deely, the Northwest MLS director and a principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle.

“People who didn’t have enough equity in their house, or didn’t have enough confidence in the economy, didn’t move the past few years,” Deely said. “We’re going to see these people start to come to the market this spring. This is going to be a phenomenal year — not just an average year — a phenomenal year.”

I wonder if Mr. Deely would care to explain exactly what measures he’ll be using to quantify this “phenomenal year.” Also, it’s great to see real estate reporting reappear in The Herald.

Tacoma News Tribune

Rolf Boone: Pierce County home sales down, median prices up in February

Pierce County home sales fell in February, the second consecutive month in which sales have cooled after an earlier red-hot period for the market, new data released Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service show.

Last month, sales fell 3 percent to 692 units from 714 units in the same period a year ago, the combined single-family residence and condo data show.

The News Tribune was the only article this month not to quote that Seahawks nonsense from J. Lennox Scott, but that’s probably just because the entire article is only about twice as long as what I’ve quoted here.

As far as I could tell, there was no story in The Olympian this month, but recently when there has been it’s just a copy of the News Tribune story anyway.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 03.05.2014)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 03.05.2014)
(Jim Davis, Everett Herald, 03.06.2014)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 03.05.2014)

The post February Reporting Roundup: Seahawks Super Bowl Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Western Washington housing market "definitely in full recovery mode"

“Lots of buyers and not enough of the right inventory to satisfy our buyers’ wants and needs,” was how [CEO and president of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest Real Estate Mike] Gain described current conditions. “Following the worst year for inventory I have seen in my 35 years of practicing real estate locally, we are expecting the number of homes for sale to increase in 2014,” Gain added, emphasizing there is pent up demand and “a very active market is anticipated once the number of listings increases.”

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate agreed. “Available inventory remains tight with shortages or low inventory where 90 percent or more of the sales activity is taking place,” he remarked.
…
Thirteen counties have more listings than a year ago, but eight counties are reporting declines in total inventory. “We are literally starving for inventory. We need more homes to sell, especially in the most desirable neighborhoods,” Gain stated.

Literally starving, you guys. Literally.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: Thin inventory puts pressure on King County home prices

In general, many houses that are listed are overpriced because those sellers are incorrectly comparing their homes with others in top condition and top locations, said Deidre Haines, principal managing broker for South Snohomish County at Coldwell Banker Bain.

“Sellers need to pay better attention to what their brokers are telling them about the value of their homes, and not think that Zillow knows,” Haines said, referring to the Seattle-based online real-estate marketplace.

Zillow’s algorithm for estimating a home’s value is a great starting point, she said, but isn’t incorporating all factors.

“You can’t smell it, you don’t know what condition it’s in, you don’t know if it’s been updated, you don’t know if the neighborhood has parked cars in the front yard,” Haines said.

I love that. Not only is Zillow terrible for home buyers thanks to intentionally incomplete data, but it’s bad for sellers because “you can’t smell it on Zillow.”

Another interesting note from the Seattle Times article:

Starting with Wednesday’s report, the listing service said it was changing how it reported the months of supply, using closed sales instead of pending sales, relative to total active listings. The service said it wanted its supply ratio to be comparable to those calculated by the National Association of Realtors and other groups.

I may switch to this method in these posts as well, just to be consistent with what shows up in other media.

Seattle P-I

Aubrey Cohen: Area home inventory picked up in January

It’s getting a little easier for Seattle-area home shoppers to find a place, according to a new report.

King County had just under 2.4 months worth of houses for sale at the current sales pace in January, the highest inventory since June 2012, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported. That said, he inventory level is still well below the 4- to 6-month range considered balanced between supply and demand. Seattle had 2 months of inventory in January.

“It’s still a situation with an inventory that isn’t as robust as it needs to be,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director for research at the University of Washington’s Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies.

Despite the slow growth of inventory, we’re still near record lows. For buyers’ sake, let’s hope this spring sees a big bump in the inventory of homes for sale.

Tacoma News Tribune

Kathleen Cooper: Home prices continue climb in Pierce County

The residential real estate market in Western Washington continued to heal in January, with most counties seeing an increase in sale prices and overall sales.

Pierce County’s median sale price increased almost 12 percent from January 2013, to $212,500, according to data released Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
Pricing also is a concern. “Many listings are overpriced,” said Deidre Haines, regional managing broker in Snohomish County for Coldwell Banker Bain. “Buyers are not interested in making offers on those properties,” she said.

Isn’t that true in every market though? There are always a lot of overpriced listings…

The Olympian

Kathleen Cooper: Thurston home prices mysteriously slip a bit

Thurston County’s median sale price took a tiny dip, dropping almost 3 percent from the same time a year ago, to $208,250, according to data released Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. The reason for the drop wasn’t immediately clear. Other data indicate market strength, including a 27 percent increase in closed sales and about 4.5 months worth of inventory.

“I really don’t understand it,” said Randy Reynolds, president of the Thurston County Realtors Association. “I haven’t truly analyzed it yet, but what I’m feeling is that we’re seeing more investors picking up properties at the low end” of the price range, which would drive that median point down a bit.

I highly doubt we’re seeing an up tick of investor activity. Most of the investors bought lots of homes in 2012 and early 2013. Investor activity has been on the decrease lately.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 02.05.2014)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 02.05.2014)
(Kathleen Cooper, Tacoma News Tribune, 02.06.2014)
(Kathleen Cooper, The Olympian, 02.06.2014)

The post January Reporting Roundup: “Full Recovery Mode” Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

My position on that argument is unchanged from what I laid out in 2007, but I bring the topic up again today because it was the subject of a lengthy editorial this week by the Seattle Times’ Jon Talton: To compete and thrive, Seattle strives for global status

Now, you can order a Starbucks coffee in more than 50 countries from Hong Kong to Hungary. Microsoft has operations on five continents, and its software runs computers across the globe. From downtown Seattle, Expeditors International acts as a travel agent for freight around the world.
…
Does all this make Seattle a global city? Does it even matter?

…being a “world city” or “global city,” terms that emerged as globalization took hold in the 1990s, carries a specific connotation.

Sociologist Janet Abu-Lughod identified only three from the United States in her influential 1999 book, “New York, Los Angeles, Chicago: America’s Global Cities.”
…
The Mori Memorial Foundation in Japan ranked cities using 70 indicators including the economy, research and development, “cultural interaction,” livability, environment and accessibility. Vancouver, B.C., made the cut. Seattle didn’t.

…you won’t find us on prestigious lists compiled by the Globalization and World Cities Research Network (GaWC) at Loughborough University in England. The think tank analyzed the “intercity connectivities” of the planet’s most important “strategic places.”
…
We’re not just below New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, but also San Francisco, Washington, D.C., Miami, Boston, Dallas, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Houston.

Here’s the updated list of “Global Cities” in the US from the GaWC:

Seattle’s standing as a Global City falls just under Houston, just above, Detroit, and on par with Minneapolis. So if you’re going to talk about Seattle’s “world class” status, it makes more sense to compare us to Houston, Detroit, and Minneapolis than New York, Chicago, and San Francisco.

The post Seattle Still Not a “World Class City” appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

"Stage is set for another good year" in real estate with year-end gains in inventory, sales, prices

Brokers with Northwest Multiple Listing Service ended 2013 with the best year-over-year improvement in inventory (up 8.4 percent) and a similar gain in closed sales to buoy confidence heading into the new year. December’s pending sales slipped slightly (down about 1.7 percent) compared to the same month a year ago.
“Positive job growth and the continuation of favorable low interest rates are setting the stage for another good year in real estate,” said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.

Friday’s narrow approval of Boeing’s contract proposal for Machinists union members bodes well for members of Northwest Multiple Listing Service and the real estate industry.

Reacting to the vote, MLS board member John Deely said, “The robust and diverse economy of the Pacific Northwest is solidified by Boeing’s continued presence in the Seattle area.” Deely, the principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle, said the vote helps secure the region’s position as “the aerospace epicenter of the world with top-notch manufacturing jobs that support the industry.”

Boeing workers and others hoping to buy a home have a bigger selection of homes to consider than house-hunters who were looking twelve months ago – especially in Snohomish County, where the number of active listings is up 43.6 percent.

I’d just like to point out again how slimy it comes across to see salesmen jumping on this Boeing story as just another way to sell more used homes. Basically on par with the smarmy car salesmen that pounced on Navy sailors as soon as they arrived back in Everett last month.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Sanjay Bhatt: King County home prices rise 10.5 percent for 2013

The median price of single-family homes sold in King County last month was $419,825, a 10.5 percent gain over the prior year, but the typical home’s value likely didn’t appreciate quite that much.
…
“No one should be misled into thinking the typical home in King and Snohomish County has gone up 10 percent or more over the past year,” [Associate director of research at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington Glenn] Crellin said. The typical home’s appreciation in 2013 was closer to 7 or 8 percent, he said.

Great reporting as usual from the Times, and a great quote from Glenn Crellin.

Seattle P-I

Aubrey Cohen: King County still has few homes for sale

There still isn’t very much selection for King County homebuyers, according to a new report.
…
“Its’ still a very tight inventory,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington.
…
Crellin said he expects more homes to hit the market soon, as builders finish new construction and as homeowners “become convinced that hte market has bailed them out of being as far underwater or underwater at all.”

More great insight from Glenn.

Tacoma News Tribune

Rolf Boone: Pierce County home sales up in December over 2012

The Pierce County housing market ended the year on a mostly positive note as sales in December rose 11 percent from last year, while price appreciation and pending sales cooled, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Monday.
…
Allen Realtors of Lakewood President Mike Larson said Monday that he was ready to announce that the “market was back” after a sizzling summer of home sales in 2013.

And then things slowed during the second half of the year.

Aww, pity the poor used home salesman.

The Olympian

Rolf Boone: Home sales, prices, listings all get better

The Thurston County housing market ended the year on a positive note in December, showing across-the-board improvement in sales, prices, pending sales, inventory levels and new listings.
…
Mark Kitabayashi, the immediate past president of the Washington Realtors Association, said 2013 was a year when the housing market continued to recover, with buyers who had previously been on the fence finally buying a home.

But the market also slowed during the second half of the year, he said.

Interesting how similar the sentiments are from the agent quoted in the Tacoma News Tribune and the agent quoted in The Olympian.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 01.06.2014)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 01.06.2014)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 01.07.2014)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 01.07.2014)

The post December Reporting Roundup: Positive Everything Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

West Seattle Blog: How high is too high for ‘lowrise’ development? You’re invited to citywide meeting January 14th

What’s allowable in [“low-rise multifamily”] zoning is an area of interest/concern, literally, in neighborhoods around the city, including ours, as multifamily development intensifies, particularly in that zone, which is often adjacent to single-family areas. So if you share that interest/concern, from whatever viewpoint, you’ll want to make plans to be at a citywide meeting on January 14th, regarding possibly changing the rules

West Seattle Blog: 6917 California SW developer meets neighbors; see the future no-offstreet-parking building’s ‘identical’ twin

The developer planning to build a 30-unit, no-offstreet-parking building in Morgan Junction says it will be a duplicate of a 30-unit, no-offstreet-parking building the same architect designed for a North Seattle site.

After Mark Knoll explained that last night to about 30 people who came to hear from and talk with him about 6917 California SW (map) – the plan first reported here two months ago – we took a field trip today for a firsthand look at the “duplicate” building.

Ironically, we discovered, that building (same architect but different owner/developer) in Roosevelt is directly across the street from a big parking lot.

Capitol Hill Seattle: The Gatsby Apartments of Capitol Hill

With new apartment projects under construction across the Hill, CHS has noted the increasingly creative names used to market the projects. A new one we’ve gotten wind of seems to be more over the top than most. Come spring 2014, you’ll have the opportunity to live inside Capitol Hill’s new Gatsby Apartments

Capitol Hill Seattle: Design board goes back for thirds in effort to shape neighbor-friendlier Chutney’s building

Wednesday night, a four-story apartment project slated to replace the former Chutney’s restaurant at 15th Ave E and E Mercer will be weighed by the design review board for a third time.
…
According to the report on the September meeting, developers Stream Real Estate nailed down the “terminus” element well enough but left the board wanting more for the project’s northern and western walls facing the neighborhood’s more “residential” streets. Wednesday night, the East Design Board will weigh in on whether Nicholson Kovalchick’s new friendlier setback treatment for the “gateway” walls are good enough to move forward.

Queen Anne View: Seattle Children’s Home development plans revealed; public design review meeting Dec 18

The development site at 901 W McGraw St is bordered by W McGraw St, 9th Ave W, and 10th Ave W, with alley access to the site via Crockett St. These streets are key to understanding the 3 plan options, as the entrance for 60+ townhomes moves around in each plan. The plan includes on-site parking for approximately 122 vehicles and all options save the on-site cottage, converting it to a duplex.

Seattle Times: Big Lake Union site sold for $80M

A large site facing Lake Union was acquired this week for nearly $80 million by a developer who has proposed building 800 apartments there.
…
In preliminary plans filed with the city, Holland proposes to spend about $165 million developing 800 apartments in phases in buildings up to 65 feet high. Holland also has a land-use permit expiring in January 2016 to develop a six-story office building with nearly 150,000 square feet at 1101 Westlake Avenue North.

The post Local Development Roundup: December 2013 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Commenting on recent activity along with expectations of a holiday season slowdown, some brokers noted there are multiple—and sometimes, unrealized—advantages to buying and selling homes as the year winds down. “Waiting will not provide much benefit,” suggested Mike Gain, CEO and president of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest Real Estate in Seattle.

MLS director Frank Wilson agreed. He believes it will be more expensive to buy a home during 2014. “Slow but steady price appreciation, upward pressure on interest rates and increased costs of getting a loan will all work to decrease the buyer’s purchasing power,” said Wilson, the branch managing broker and Kitsap District manager for John L. Scott in Poulsbo.

“Waiting will not provide much benefit.” “It will be more expensive to buy a home [next year].” Gee, where have we heard those claims before? Oh right. Only from basically every real estate agent, all the time. The photo above is one I took of a real estate broker’s street sign in 2006.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Seattle Times

Coral Garnick: King County home-price gains lose some sizzle

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service said Wednesday the median price of a single-family home in King County rose 7.5 percent compared with a year ago. It was the 20th consecutive month of a higher year-over-year median price, but the first time in more than a year that the increase was less than 10 percent.

The drop-off may mean the housing market is moving away from the dreaded boom-and-bust cycles that can lead to a market crash, brokers and economists in the region said.

Oddly, the article doesn’t quote any economists, just the incredibly trustworthy home salesmen Dick Beeson and J. Lennox Scott.

Seattle P-I

Aubrey Cohen: Home sales down, but inventory remains tight

November brought a solid sign that the recent home sales surge is at least leveling off, with King County’s first year-to-year sales drop in two and a half years. But inventory remains tight.
…
“It’s pretty much a stable market,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington.

Hmm, I’m not sure I’d go so far as to call the current market “stable,” but it’s definitely less insane than it was earlier this year.

Everett Herald

The Everett Herald has just stopped reporting on the NWMLS stats in their real estate section, it seems. I’ve reached out to offer them contract writing services. While the Herald apparently doesn’t have a budget for freelancers, the Herald Business Journal does, and my first piece there will be appearing there soon.

Tacoma News-Tribune

Rolf Boone: Home sales, prices move up in Pierce County

The Pierce County housing market still exhibited growth during one of the slower months of the year, with home sales and median prices rising modestly in the year-over-year November period, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Wednesday.

Not a lot of meat to the online version of the News-Tribune article this month.

The Olympian

Rolf Boone: Home sales in county jump 33 percent over November 2012

Thurston County home sales shot up more than 30 percent in November, a stronger-than-usual showing during a month when sales are typically slow, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Wednesday.
…
Van Dorm Realty managing broker Jerry Wilkins explained the rise in sales this way: Consumer confidence continues to improve, and buyers have been in act-now mode because they are anxious about another rise in mortgage interest rates.

Now that is interesting. Sales fell year-over-year for the first time in quite a while in King County, but were up over 30 percent in Thurston? I’ll be looking into that later this month for sure.

(Coral Garnick, Seattle Times, 12.05.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 12.05.2013)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 12.05.2013)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 12.05.2013)

The post November Reporting Roundup: Don’t Wait, Buy Now Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

West Seattle Blog: Neighbors speak out about 36-unit, no-parking Junction development

We’re in the basement at Hope Lutheran Church along with more than 30 people here for a meeting that wouldn’t have happened if neighbors hadn’t petitioned the city for it. While the 36-unit, no-parking-space apartment building proposed for 4535 44th SW is going through Design Review – with at least one more meeting to come – other components of public comment are routinely dealt with via e-mail, postal-mail, phone comments … unless at least 50 people petition for a meeting to address SEPA (State Environmental Policy Act)-related impacts.

West Seattle Blog: New renderings, ‘packet’ as 3210 California SW returns to Design Review

This Thursday (November 21st), 3210 California SW – the biggest development on the drawing boards for the greater Admiral area – goes back to the Southwest Design Review Board, 6:30 pm at the Senior Center of West Seattle (California/Oregon). In advance of that meeting, developer Intracorp has gone public with new renderings that are not in the “packet” published online in advance of the meeting.

WSB also has a very detailed follow-up of the Design Reveiw Board meeting, where it was decided to send the project through at least one more review meeting.

Capitol Hill Seattle: Neighborhood groups try to halt new microhousing rules in fight for tighter restrictions on aPodments

In October, CHS reported that the City of Seattle was “seeking feedback” on new rules proposed to regulate microhousing and expose the developments to the public design review process.

A group of community organizations has, indeed, provided its feedback — in the form of an appeal that seeks to reverse a recent decision to move the proposals forward and halt any in-progress microhousing development.

Capitol Hill Seattle: A rowhouse mini-explosion in Capitol Hill helping to transform single-family home blocks

A small explosion of new rowhouses and townhome developments is in the works around Capitol Hill, and two familiar names are involved in quite a few of them. Capitol Hill architect Bradley Khouri and developer Graham Black are pairing up on at least two projects of the type on Capitol Hill, and individually involved in at least five total.

If you see a story about local development that should be included in a future roundup, send it my way.

The post Local Development Roundup: November 2013 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Home sales "pause" with government shutdown, but brokers mostly bullish on market recovery

Home sales “paused” during October but prices continued to rise, according to the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Commenting on year-to-date totals for 2013 compared to 2012, one industry expert remarked, “I would say the real estate market is recovering nicely.”

Pending sales during October dipped 2.7 percent when compared to the same month a year ago, but rose nearly 3.2 percent from September’s volume. October’s decline was the first negative change in year-over-year comparisons since April 2011. (That drop-off was attributed in part to a frenzy during April 2010 when buyers were scrambling to take advantage of a federal tax credit that was expiring.)

Brokers point to the federal shutdown during the first two weeks of October, below-normal inventory, and shaken consumer confidence as factors in the slowdown.

So, in the first month of positive year-over-year inventory in nearly three years it is “below-normal inventory” that caused a sudden slowdown in pending sales. Right. Here’s what the year-over-year trend in pending sales has looked like since January 2012:

The year-over-year change in pending sales has been trending down sharply since July, and has been on an overall downward trend since early last year. But why look at obvious trends when you can blame the political 3-ring circus in Washington DC?

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times: King County median home price up 15% over year ago

While extremely tight inventory drove bidding wars in spring, October was the first time this year that inventory of single-family homes was higher than a year earlier.
…
Pending sales slipped to 2,579, down almost 4 percent from a year earlier, perhaps related to the federal government’s partial shutdown from Oct. 1-16.

Pending sales are where the shutdown’s impact would have shown up, but it’s hard to tease that out from other possible causes, said Glenn Crellin, associate director of research at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington.

“I’m very encouraged by the fact that listings are increasing gradually,” he said.

The trend in October was

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Was home sales slowdown just a ‘pause’?

The number of deals to buy King County houses fell 3.6 percent in October from a year earlier, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Tuesday.

That was just a “slight pause,” Mike Gain, president and CEO of Prudential Northwest Realty Associates, said in the listing service report.
…
Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington, said the pause hypothesis is “probably right,” noting that we’re now comparing to months last year when sales were ramping up.
…
Looking foward, Crellin said: “I think you’re going to see stabilization.”

It’s all Crellin, all the time in this month’s reporting, apparently.

No story has appeared in the Everett Herald.

C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune: Home prices up in Pierce County in October, dip in Thurston

Residential home prices were were up in Pierce County in October, while the number of pending sales declined. Thurston County saw the opposite effect, with pending sales up and prices down, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Tuesday.
…
“More inventory is still needed to meet demand,” suggested Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma. Beeson is also past chairman of the Northwest MLS board of directors.
…
“It still looks like a potential housing shortage in Puget Sound come 2015 if building doesn’t increase,” Beeson said in an MLS release Tuesday.

A potential shortage? Because the record-low inventory we had in 2012 and early 2013 wasn’t a shortage? Dick Beeson never fails to entertain.

C.R. Roberts, The Olympian: Home prices down in Thurston in October, up in Pierce County
The News Tribune and Olympian stories this month are literally the same exact story but with slightly different headlines.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 11.05.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 11.05.2013)
(C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune, 11.05.2013)
(C.R. Roberts, The Olympian, 11.05.2013)

The post October Reporting Roundup: Denying the Trend Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

ValueAppeal CEO Charlie Walsh made the tough decision to shut down the service earlier this year, saying the economics of helping homeowners challenge their tax bills for as little as $99 just didn’t work out.

“There is only a thin slice of homeowners that are overassessed, about 20 percent of homes,” says Walsh. “And at the same time there is only a 30 to 60 day window in which you are allowed to file an appeal, so that presented a marketing challenge.”

In order to solve that challenge, ValueAppeal turned to direct mail. “To make money at $99 a pop acquiring customers through direct mail — you have to be pretty good at direct mail,” said Walsh, adding that they started layering on all sorts of demographic data about who was most likely to respond to direct mail campaigns and from that who was most likely to file a tax appeal.

“Over the course of a few years, we got really good at predicting who would respond to our direct mail,” said Walsh, describing the data as a “crystal ball.” Late last year, Walsh started kicking around new ideas, thinking about ways they could predict which homes would be most likely to sell, refinance or foreclose in a certain geographic area.

Well, that’s a bummer for homeowners. ValueAppeal was a great service, but given the small niche market they served and the timing issues discussed in the article, it’s not surprising that they decided to pivot into a business with a much larger potential for growth.

Instead of trying to help homeowners figure out if their tax bills are too high, MostLikely is attempting to help real estate professionals develop leads through predictive intelligence…
…
Walsh admits that the “pain point” still very much exists for home owners trying to appeal property taxes, but he said the company could not afford to service those customers while going in the new direction.

That “new direction” is marketing subscription services for real estate agents, based on predictive analytics. While it’s certainly a business that sounds like an interesting and fun challenge, it’s still sad to see a valuable service for homeowners fall by the wayside.

The post ValueAppeal: Drops Property Tax Appeals Business appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Region’s housing activity still "speeding along," but pace slowing as seasons change, uncertainty looms amid government shutdown

September tested the housing market’s resilience around Western Washington with fluctuating mortgage rates, record-setting rains, and persistent inventory shortages in some areas. By month’s end, however, both pending and closed sales outgained the same period a year ago, according to the latest figures from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Prices also increased compared to 12 months ago, but fell slightly from the previous month. Year-to-date figures through nine months show prices for homes and condominiums that have sold in the 21 counties served by the MLS are up 12 percent from a year ago.

With uncertainty about the duration of the government shutdown, brokers say the positive momentum could stall.

It’s the perfect scapegoat! When things slow down from the unreasonably hot market we had this spring and summer, they can now blame it on the “shutdown.” How convenient!

Also:

Northwest MLS director John Deely said the Seattle market shows no signs of slowing down and house-hunters seem undaunted by soggy weather. “Buyers continue to flood open houses and multiple offers rain down on competitively priced properties,” he commented.

I see what you did there.

Northwest MLS director George Moorhead, the branch manager at Bentley Properties in Bothell, said market activity “waned just a bit” towards the end of August and during September, a pattern he said is normal with students going back to school and last-minute vacations. He expects interest rates will climb to 5 percent by summer 2014, and says the big message is “If you want to capitalize on the current lower interest rates, don’t delay any longer.”

Coincidentally, that has been the same “big message” home salesmen have been driving home for the past three years, at least.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times: King County home prices dip; shutdown threatens closings

Single-family home prices in King County saw a remarkable run from January to July, when the median price hit $434,000, a 24 percent increase in just seven months.

“That’s way too fast. That’s a 2006 market,” said Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma.

Hah! As if Dick Beeson is worried about home prices rising too fast. Good one.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Home selection the best since February

Frustrated would-be homebuyers should be able to find a little more selection, according to a report released Friday.

February home inventory at the current sales pace was 2.2 months in King County and two months in Seattle, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported. Those were the highest numbers since February, although they’re still well below the four to six months of inventory generally considered balanced.

“It’s still a short inventory,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington. “It’s good to see that inventory level picking up a little bit, though, giving prospective buyers a little more choice in the marketplace.”
…
J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, said the area’s market is going through its third “mini power surge of sales activity” this year.

“With interest rates suddenly coming off their peak for the year, we’re having another surge of activity, which is keeping the inventory at the shortage level in both King and Snohomish counties,” he added.

I like the contrast between the sensible, logical statements from Glenn Crellin and the marketing mumbo-jumbo hype from J. Lennox Scott.

As far as I can tell, there hasn’t been an article posted on the Everett Herald yet.

Kathleen Cooper, Tacoma News Tribune: Pierce County home prices rise again last month, data shows

Pierce County home prices ticked up again in September, data released Friday showed, continuing the trend it has followed all year.

The median sale price for homes and condos in Pierce County last month was $220,000, up almost 10 percent from the same time a year ago, according to data from the Northwest Multiple Listings Service. At the median sale price, half the homes sold for more than that amount, and half sold for less.

It looks like the online edition only gets the lightweight version of the story this month, with a few numbers and a couple of direct quotes from the NWMLS press release.

Kathleen Cooper, The Olympian: Thurston home prices, sales climb in September

Thurston County median home prices rose by 8 percent to $228,497 in September, data released Friday from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service showed.

Aside from that one sentence, the rest of The Olympian’s article is literally identical to the article in the News Tribune.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 10.04.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 10.04.2013)
(Kathleen Cooper, Tacoma News Tribune, 10.04.2013)
(Kathleen Cooper, The Olympian, 10.05.2013)

The post September Reporting Roundup: Blame the Shutdown Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Oddly, the the NWMLS press release website is still showing last month’s release, and they don’t send the releases to me, so I guess we have to skip that part of the program this month.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times: King County home prices drop in August: ‘Just a hiccup’?

Rising interest rates could have thrown cold water on the market’s activity: The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.46 percent in August, up from 4.37 percent in July and a low of 3.35 percent last December, according to Freddie Mac.

The higher interest rates, combined with rising home prices, could dampen some buyers’ appetites, Conway said. But those factors just as easily could prompt others to close a deal before prices and rates rise further.

Summer vacations are a more likely reason for the slowdown in the market, brokers said.

In other words, there really isn’t much interesting in this month’s data. It’s mostly just what we would expect for this time of year.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Seattle-area home supply slowly increasing

Seattle had 1.6 months worth of homes for sale at the current sales pace in August, up from 1.5 months of inventory in July. King County had 1.9 months of inventory, up from 1.7 months.

But both were down from more than two months of supply a year earlier and well below the four to six months generally considered balanced between supply and demand.

“What these numbers tell us loud and clear is that buyer demand in the Puget Sound region is still incredibly strong,” Windermere Real Estate President OB Jacobi said in a listing service news release.

Good ‘ol OB Jacobi.

I waited as late as I could, but there’s still no story posted on this month’s numbers at the Everett Herald.

[Update: Here it is.]
Everett Herald: Snohomish County housing market ‘strongest in years’

Available housing inventory in Snohomish County showed a 10.5 percent uptick in new listings, according to NWMLS data. Realtors reported 1,424 new listings, up from 1,185 new listings in August 2012. Total listing activity in the county jumped from 2,322 units to 2,565 units.

However, the available inventory of houses and condos remains far below normal when measured by months of supply. A balanced housing market has a four- to six-month supply, NWMLS says, but Snohomish County’s current housing supply would be exhausted in 1.8 months at the current sales pace without any new listings.

Darin Stenvers, a director with Northwest MLS, called the current market “the strongest in four or five years,” with signs of stability that should continue into 2014.

“If a buyer finds the home of their dreams, they should make their first offer their best offer or risk losing that home,” he said.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Pierce County housing market stays hot in August

Although the market has been strong, the change in inventory and slightly higher mortgage interest rates has had an effect on the market, said Dick Beeson, principal managing broker for Re/Max Professionals in Tacoma.

“While the overall market remains vibrant and active, we don’t appear to have the frantic ‘must have this home because there may not be another’ mentality among buyers,” Beeson said.

Pending sales also rose 11.4 percent to 1,486 units last month from 1,334 units in August 2012, the combined data show.

If all those pending sales become closed sales, which doesn’t always happen, the county will extend its monthly home sales streak of 1,000 or more units to five months.

“Doesn’t always happen” in this case should be “never happens.” The ratio between pending sales and closed sales a month or two later has been 80% to 80% in the last six months, so around one in five pending sales are still falling through.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Home sales, inventory in Thurston county both are up

The final full month of summer was one of the best months of the year for the Thurston County real estate market as sales and prices rose sharply, new Northwest Multiple Listing Service data show.

Sales rose nearly 18 percent in August to 361 units from 306 units in August 2012, the combined single-family residence and condominium data show.

Prices and pending sales also rose in the year-over-year August period, with median prices climbing 7.8 percent to $235,000 from $218,000, while pending sales rose nearly 5 percent to 410 units from 391 units, according to the combined data.

But inventory levels, which had recently fallen and helped to drive median prices higher, suddenly were higher last month than they were a year ago.

I’m still not a fan of describing the real estate market in qualitative terms that skew so strongly in favor of sellers. A month of sharply rising prices is not what most buyers would describe as “one of the best months of the year.”

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 09.05.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 09.05.2013)
(Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald, 09.06.2013)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 09.06.2013)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 09.06.2013)

The post August Reporting Roundup: Seasonal Slowdown Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

For renters and homeowners, market forces are permanently altering the familiar face of many neighborhoods. While wealthy newcomers are helping to revitalize neighborhood business districts, the reality is that many renters, saddled by stagnant wages, are being forced to reexamine lifestyle choices and, in some cases, move out of Seattle altogether.

Low housing inventory, a growing population of young tech-company workers and changing attitudes about when to buy a home are all contributing to rent increases throughout the Seattle metro area.

Translation: Some developers of rental units are cashing in on the fact that “the dream of home ownership” is no longer the default aspiration of many Americans.

The article also includes a nifty interactive rental cost map, but given that they’re using Zillow as the source of their data, I’d take the exact numbers with a rather large grain of salt.

What’s fueling rent increases most is development itself, said Jonathan Grant, the Tenant Union’s executive director. If almost all new units cater to wealthier tenants, he said, increasing supply is no path to getting rents to go down or even level off.

“The reality is that these units are high-cost, and often these were taken out of affordable-housing stock,” Grant said. “That’s why you see this theory of supply and demand being turned on its head.”

Sorry Mr. Grant, but that makes no sense. You can price rental units in your new development as high as you want but you simply won’t have any renters if the demand isn’t there. Supply and demand has not been “turned on its head.” It’s working exactly as one would expect: new development supply simply isn’t keeping up with increased demand.

Earlier this summer, The Seattle Times asked readers how they were coping with rising rents, and dozens responded.

Some told us they’re reconsidering whether they’ll ever be able to save enough money to buy a house if they want to stay in the Seattle area.
…
Homebuying may never be in the future for some who stay in the Seattle area because they’ll never be able to save enough for it.

Here we go again with the overblown concerns about being priced out forever. Yes, there will be some periods during which some people who could have afforded to buy a home under ideal circumstances will no longer be able to, but for the most part, if you can’t afford to buy a home in the city or neighborhood of your choosing, it’s probably because you simply aren’t making enough money. The rental market is not conspiring against you.

Pro tip: In places where rents are expensive, homes are expensive too.

What I would love to see in a follow-up story is more exploration of what’s driving the strong demand for high-priced rental units. If I were to venture a guess, I’d say it probably has at least something to do with this:

The post Demand for Seattle Rentals Still Outstripping Supply appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

West Seattle Blog: West Seattle development: 2 more project sites up for sale

It seems to be something of a trend – get your development all or part of the way through the review process, then put it up for sale before starting construction. Newest one: The proposed three-story, 29-apartment, 29-parking-space project at 3829 California SW just went on the market for almost $1.6 million…

West Seattle Blog: Design packet now online for Junction Flats project, before August 29th design review

That’s the cover image for the “packet” put together by Nicholson Kovalchick Architects for their Junction Flats project at 4433 42nd SW (map), across from Hope Lutheran School/Church in The Junction.

Capitol Hill Seattle: What the development at 12th and Pike will look like — Plus, E Madison’s Mad Flats

…the public gets its first look at a new project on E Madison (that will replace a really old Victorian that first must pass through the landmarks board) and the most complete look yet at the mixed-use project coming to the northeast corner of 12th and Pike (replacing one of the oldest, “organic” mixed-use projects in the neighborhood that was already rejected by the landmarks board).

Capitol Hill Seattle: What the Bill’s building will look like — Plus, 30 stories on First Hill

Wednesday night, the East Design Review Board will get its first look at the fleshed out vision for the project from longtime Seattle developer Denny Onslow set to overhaul — and keep — three businesses with deep Capitol Hill roots at Harvard and Pine as a seven-story apartment building soars above. Meanwhile, the board will also make time for what could be the final review of a 30-story apartment tower on First Hill just above I-5.

Seattle Times: Amazon gives a push to biking downtown

Almost single-handedly, Amazon.com has driven the recent downtown Seattle office market boom. Now, at its massive, three-tower Denny Triangle development, the online retailer is raising the stakes for what companies can do to encourage bicycle commuting.

Amazon will build “cycle tracks” on Seventh Avenue along the two-block stretch of its office complex, demonstrating what a downtown network of dedicated bicycle lanes could look like.

The company also will provide stalls for about 400 bikes in each of its towers — three times the number of bike spaces required under city code and many more than other office projects provide.

Seattle Times: NY investor plans Seattle, Portland apartment push

One of the East Coast’s big real-estate investors is launching a West Coast affiliate with local partners with plans to build apartments in cities like Seattle, Portland and Los Angeles.

New York-based Mack Real Estate Group announced today it had invested in Mack Urban, a Los Angeles real-estate firm that combines the portfolios of Seattle’s Harbor Urban and Los Angeles’ Urban Partners.

The new partnership plans to build about 3,000 apartments over the next five years in the Pacific Northwest, focusing on urban centers like Seattle and Portland, said Richard Mack, CEO of Mack Real Estate Group.

Let me know what you think of this kind of post as a recurring feature.

The post Local Development Roundup: Take One appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Home sales, prices still rising in Western Washington despite lean inventory and increasing mortgage rates

Rising interest rates, rising prices and rising consumer confidence are creating a “positive cyclone of home sales activity,” according to members of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. A robust job market around the Greater Seattle area is also spurring sales.

“We experienced a mini power surge of sales activity that was touched off by a sudden raise of interest rates during the month of May,” observed J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. Scott attributes part of the surging activity to buyers who rushed forward to purchase a home before rates climb higher. He also reported more sellers are listing their homes “due to the realization that the next home they purchase will be at a higher interest rate.” As these sellers become buyers, they’re contributing to the “positive cyclone of sales activity,” Scott stated.

Without even reading the attribution, I already knew that quote was from Lennox. Classic.

Interestingly, there are a few bits in this month’s release that aren’t quite so optimistic:

Despite improving inventory overall…

…some sellers are testing the waters with aggressive pricing, but they are experiencing longer market times.

…the seller’s market will continue for at least the next few months.

…some economists expect weaker U.S. economic growth for theremaining months of 2013 and moderating home price increases…

If you read between the lines, it sounds like they’re actually bracing for a slowdown in the second half of the year.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times: King County median home price up 15 percent over year ago

The silver lining: Last month’s number of listings in King County was the highest level so far this year.

Experts said rising prices drew more sellers into the market in July than expected, including banks with repossessed properties and owners once underwater on their mortgages, a welcome sign for a tight market.

“We’re looking at a stabilizing marketplace,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of research at the University of Washington’s Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies.

Once again I find myself in agreement with Mr. Crellin.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: More homes hit market, but supply still tight

The number of listings is the most significant news in the July report, according to Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington.

“While the total listings are down (from July 2012), they’re not down as sharply as they have been,” he said. “That’s a sign to me that we’re starting to get inventory a little bit in better balance.”

Another great quote from Glenn C. He’s on fire this month!

Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald: Prices rise in ‘cyclone’ of local homes sales

Members of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service said the threat of rising interest rates, quickly rising prices and growing consumer confidence are creating a “positive cyclone of home sales activity.”

The greater Seattle area’s robust job market is also spurring sales just north of the King County line.

As late as the Herald’s story was posted this morning, the content disappointingly relies somewhat heavily on the NWMLS press release.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Pierce housing market riding summer hot streak

After a sizzling June for the Pierce County housing market, the heat was turned up even higher in July as sales and median prices not only blew the roof off the house but burned right through it, according to new Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Tuesday.
…
Prices have benefited from fewer homes on the market, giving sellers the upper hand in recent months after buyers had been in the catbird seat for years. But inventory is on the rise as new listings begin to outpace the number of last year’s listings.

The result is that inventory was down only 8 percent last month to 3,495 units from 3,786 units in July 2012. Previous monthly inventory levels had been down 20 percent or 30 percent from the year-ago period.

“A more balanced market is certainly healthier,” [Allen Realtors president Mike]Larson said about the higher inventory levels.

I like how in that last quote the real estate agent almost sounds disappointed.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Thurston home sales rise 20 percent in July, prices inch up

The Thurston County housing market had another strong month as sales rose 20 percent in the year-over-year July period, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data.

Apparently to get the full story in the Olympian this month you have to buy a paper copy. Oh well.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 08.06.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 08.06.2013)
(Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald, 08.07.2013)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 08.07.2013)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 08.06.2013)

The post July Reporting Roundup: “Cyclone of Sales” Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here are a few of the tips I shared for finding a cheap rental in the Seattle area, and some relevant links to previous posts on the topic:

• Avoid the overly “trendy” areas (e.g. Ballard, Capitol Hill, etc.) if low price is a priority.
• Search on off-beat rental sites, including various local property management sites.
• Literally drive around your target neighborhood with an eye out for “For Rent” signs.
• Sign up for an RSS feed of your Craigslist rental search to get alerted immediately when a new rental listing hits the market.
• If your job is near a bus line or other reliable transit option, open up your search to further-out areas with direct transit to your job.

Rents have risen quite a bit recently, but in general I expect the rental market to ease up over the next year or two as all of the apartments currently in the pipeline come online, flooding the market with supply.

The post How To Find Cheap Rentals Around Seattle appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Northwest MLS brokers say market stays "extremely competitive;" some industry experts believe "housing affordability may never be better"

Current market conditions — including rising mortgage rates, tight inventory and declining unemployment — are driving even more buyers into what is already an “extremely competitive housing market,” reported OB Jacobi, a member of the board of directors for Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
“With higher interest rates and potentially going higher, more resale listings are coming on the market,” observed J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “Many potential sellers are now realizing if they are going to purchase another home, they will be purchasing at a higher interest rate, so they are choosing to move forward now,” Scott continued. “The additional inventory is appreciated by the backlog of buyers trying to purchase a home, though we are still in a quick action market. ”

An industry expert whose career dates to 1976 said he’s been through many “hot markets,” but never one quite like the current one. “I’ve never seen the in-city market so stressful for buyers because there is such intense competition on anything priced well,” said Mike Skahen, a past chairman of the Northwest MLS board and the just-retired owner/designated broker at Lake & Co. Real Estate in Seattle.

Commenting on the current market, Skahen said what’s relatively new is buyers doing pre inspections before they make their offer so it is not subject to inspection. “Often, buyers are even waiving financing and risking low appraisals where they have to make up the difference in cash,” he reported.

While pre-inspections aren’t really news (they’ve been relatively common since things heated up last year), it is interesting to note that when I’ve been looking at Redfin data around the country for the monthly Bidding War Report, I discovered that pre-inspections are apparently just a Seattle thing. Note in the second table in the report that they’re virtually non-existent in other markets.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Marissa Evans, Seattle Times: King County median home price up 12.5 percent from June 2012

June was the third consecutive month the median price topped $400,000 and the 15th straight month of year-over-year price increases.

But the traditional summer buyer enthusiasm has already dampened, says Tim Ellis, founder and editor of Seattle Bubble, a real-estate news site.

True!

Mike Gain, CEO and president of Prudential Northwest Realty Associates in Seattle, says with so many prospective buyers out there, bidding wars have intensified.

False. They’ve actually decreased in the last couple months.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Buyers fighting for homes as mortgage rates rise

June was only just a little less hot than May, at least as far as the area’s real estate market was concerned, according to a new report.
…
Mike Gain, president and CEO of Prudential Northwest Realty Associates, added: “We desperately need more properties to sell to satisfy the current demand.”

Gain and others said rising interest rates are spurring buyers to act now.

Thankfully we’re already seeing more properties hit the market, and sales are easing. We’re heading back toward a balanced market, despite the increasing volume of hype from real estate salespeople.

It looks like the holiday threw off the Herald’s calendar, because there’s still no article about Wednesday’s number, just an article from Wednesday about May’s CoreLogic data.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: June was another hot month for homes in Pierce County

It’s not just the weather that’s been sizzling — it’s also the Pierce County housing market.
…
[Allen Realtors of Lakewood president Mike] Larson recently listed a home for $140,000 in Tacoma that was in a great location but needed a lot of work. Once listed, the front door quickly became a turnstile as it had 20 showings over the next couple of days, finally selling for $149,000 after two competing offers.

“That’s a snapshot of what’s going on,” Larson said.

Only two offers? Compared to a few months ago, that’s nothing. Definitely a sign that things are calming.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Thurston home sales rise again, but not their prices

But while sales are on the rise, median prices were flat in June compared with $226,000 in June 2012, the combined data show.

Although home sellers are on better footing in this market than in past years, the market hasn’t completely shifted in their favor because buyers are still sensitive about prices, Washington Realtors Association president Mark Kitabayashi said.

Other factors that might have dampened prices last month include the recent increase in mortgage interest rates — making the cost of borrowing money a little more expensive — and higher inventory levels, allowing buyers to be choosier about a prospective home.

Inventory levels remain low, but new listings have outpaced last year’s listings since March.

Interesting that home prices were flat from a year ago down in Olympia. It’s also nice that this article highlighted some of the recent cooling.

(Marissa Evans, Seattle Times, 07.03.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 07.03.2013)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 07.03.2013)
(John Gillie, The Olympian, 07.04.2013)

The post June Reporting Roundup: Late Hype Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Competition among home buyers "still fierce;" rising interest rates adding to fury

With inventory apparently improving, some would-be buyers are staying on the sidelines. The increased inventory is “cooling some buyers,” reported George Moorhead, managing broker at Bentley Properties in Mill Creek and a member of the MLS board of directors. “We also have buyers who are stepping back as they are frustrated with current inventory and multiple offers going well above asking price,” he added.

Okay wait. That makes no sense at all. They’re trying to claim that an increase in inventory is causing buyers to get out of the market? When the big story for the last year-plus has been buyer frustration at record low inventory? That does not pass the sniff test. I can see higher interest rates being a reason that sales might soften, but increase inventory? Nope.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Marissa Evans, Seattle Times: More buyers than sellers push King County home prices up

Lack of homes for sale has been the major reason behind rising home prices in the Puget Sound area.
…
Glenn Crellin, of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington, said the shortage is happening for a combination of reasons. Some homeowners are waiting for prices to rise even more, while others owe more than what they could get for their home. This prevents owners from being able to sell unless they can make up the difference out-of-pocket.
…
Despite the shortage, Matthew Gardner, principal for Gardner Economics, said this is the kind of report he’s been looking forward to seeing. The number of listings increased 21 percent for Seattle in the past month.

“We are seeing a late increase in spring listings,” Gardner said. “It’s going to be a busy summer now.”

Whoa. Accurate insight from Matthew Gardner? Okay then.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Surging home prices fuel fears of a new bubble

Shoppers fighting over the few homes listed for sale in the Seattle area pushed up prices again in May, prompting fears of a fresh housing bubble, according to a new report.
…
“We certainly can’t sustain 15 percent annual price increases,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington.
…
“Traditionally, during the initial phase of a rate uptick we see a flurry of activity,” Crellin said.
…
After that initial flurry, Crellin said, rising rates “will tend to slow things down a little bit.” They’ll also moderate median price increases, as the same monthly payment will buy less, he added.

Here’s hoping.

I held this post until this late because I was hoping a story would appear on the Everett Herald, but so far there’s nothing. If they post one tomorrow I might update this space.

[Update]

They did finally post a story: Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald: Fewer county homes listed, so prices rise

Median sale prices on homes and condominiums in Snohomish County jumped by $40,000 in May from a year ago, due in no small part to the continuing decline in active listings.
…
“There are still home owners who want or need a higher equity position in order to sell their home, so they may continue to wait and watch,” said Dan Gunderson, broker with Windermere Everett.
…
“We currently have significantly less inventory of bank-owned and short-sale properties,” Gunderson said. “New construction is currently about 15 percent of the inventory, and we would like to see it at 20 percent. Supply is certainly a driver of the increased property values. Affordability, low interest rates and the job market in this region are contributing to the increased value as well.”

[End of Update]

Kathleen Cooper, Tacoma News Tribune: Seller’s market pushes home prices higher in Pierce, Thurston

Prices are rising as more buyers enter the market and fewer homes are listed for sale. Inventories in both Pierce and Thurston counties dropped in May, 20 percent and 16 percent respectively. Pierce County has just under two months’ supply of homes for sale, according to the NWMLS – a number so low only King and Snohomish counties beat it, with about one month’s supply there.

Reasons for owners not putting their house on the market vary but probably include people still suffering the hangover of the market collapse, now five years past.

Well, it’s been five (almost six) years since the local housing market began to collapse, but the collapse only really ended a little over a year ago.

Unfortunately literally the exact same story ran in The Olympian, so instead of the usual five reports this month, we only really got three.

(Marissa Evans, Seattle Times, 06.05.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 06.05.2013)
(Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald, 06.07.2013)
(Kathleen Cooper, Tacoma News Tribune, 06.06.2013)
(Kathleen Cooper, The Olympian, 06.06.2013)

The post May Reporting Roundup: Inventory Increase Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

I attended a meeting last week sponsored by the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate professionals (NAHREP). This group has brought many high quality educational events to the greater Seattle area and I’m so impressed with NAHREP that I decided to join.  I have been following the success and growth of NACA, the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America, for several years. They are a non-profit association born out of disgust with predatory lending and the use of subprime loans by banks, lenders, and brokers during the housing bubble.  It’s founder, Bruce Marks, was featured on 60 Minutes, and many other national news programs.  NACA has two main goals:

1. To extend the reach of affordable lending and homeownership to every working person; and,
2. To combat discrimination and exploitation of working people by lenders and financial institutions.

NACA has offices in many states and is in the process of coming to the greater Seattle/Puget Sound. They have no physical office here but they are on the way.  NACA, a non-profit organization, also holds either a lender or mortgage broker license in the states in which they do business.

“Best Mortgage in America”

NACA is bringing their “Best Mortgage in America” to WA State. They hold a WA State Mortgage Broker license MB-4082 and currently have one licensed loan originator assigned to WA State with the intent to hire more, though their compensation plan is best served by loan originators who prefer salaries in line with working for a non-profit….because one of the many duties of NACA employees is to spend many hours thoroughly counseling their clients before the client becomes a homeowner, and requires long face-time office hours of 830-6PM.  So what is the “Best Mortgage in America?” Let’s find out.

• NACA acts as the mortgage broker; loans are funded by Bank of America or Citi
• Purchase money loan only (there is no refinance program)
• Less than perfect credit—Okay
• No credit score—Okay
• Affordability and Character-based lending
• Below market interest rates
• Interest rate buy downs at purchase are encouraged
• 30 or 15 year term
• 1-4 single family home, condo, coop
• Loan limits: Home or Condo for King, Pierce Kitsap. Snohomish county loan limit not yet available…SFR: $341,516, Duplex: $416,254, Triplex: $488,153, Fourplex: $583,514
• Rehab/Renovation Lending: 110% of after-repairs-completed value
• Owner occupied only
• Owner occupied for as long as the NACA loan is in existence
• No down payment
• No closing costs

NOTE: Actually there ARE closing costs.  The representative from NACA said, and I quote, “There is a fee, and there are non recurring costs but these are paid for by the lender.”

Before NACA goes wild with their “no closing costs” marketing program in WA State, I recommend their compliance department read our WA State Mortgage Broker Practices Act:
WA 208-660-440

(3) Is it a violation to advertise that third-party services are “free” when the licensee has paid for the services? Yes. Advertising using the term “free,” or any other similar term or phrase that implies there is no cost to the applicant is deceptive because you can recover the cost of the purportedly “free” item through the negotiation process. This is a violation of RCW 19.146.0201 (2), (7), and (11). See the Federal Trade Commission’s Guide Concerning Use of the Word “Free” and Similar Representations (16 C.F.R. §251.1(g) (2003))

Misc

• NACA fully underwrites the credit portion of the loan before the borrower is released to purchase a home from the Realtor and the pre-approval letter will contain the monthly payment including taxes, insurance, and homeowner’s assoc dues, if any, instead of just a sales price.
• One purchase every 5 years to discourage flipping.
• RE Condos: Requires 51 percent owner occupied in the complex w less than 10 percent of the units delinquent. Complex does not have to be FHA approved.
• Not just for first time homebuyers: Home buyer cannot own another piece of real property when receiving the NACA loan.  Note: the Homebuyer CAN own land or timeshare because we can’t “owner occupy” our land or timeshare.
• If purchasing a short sale, NACA buyers do not pay any of the seller’s fees including any third party short sale negotiator fee
• No income limits
• No time limit required to stay in the home
• ITIN (individual taxpayer ID number) okay
• Also avail: mixed use commercial-residential
• Buyer pays for home inspection
• Cannot use a NACA loan to purchase property at a foreclosure auction.
• NACA selects the title company
• Homebuyer’s loan closing will take place in the local NACA office.

Real Estate Brokers

Real estate brokers go thru a NACA training program. Since NACA does a lot of homebuyer outreach education, if a buyer is referred from NACA to the real estate broker then the real estate broker will pay a referral fee to NACA of 33%.  They do not yet have a real estate license in WA State but will soon and mentioned “buyer broker representation” as part of their goal for WA State.  Their real estate broker program is not up and running yet but the NACA rep says plans are in place to bring the program into the Seattle/Tacoma area soon.

REOs: 14-Day First Look with B of A

NACA-approved home buyers have an exclusive option to purchase REOs from Bank of America before they are listed in the MLS. Not all REOs, and not all of B of A’s REOs…just some.  This “first look” list goes from Bank of America to NACA.  NACA sends the REO list to Realtors affiliated with NACA. B of A has three BPOs completed to determine the price.  Selling broker makes sure NACA-approved buyer can qualify.  If yes, then the NACA-approved buyer can view the home before it is listed on the MLS.  If a NACA-approved buyer submits a full list price offer within the 14 day “first look” window, then the offer must be accepted by B of A, even if other offers are higher.  IN ADDITION: If NACA-approved buyer makes a full price offer within the first 14 days…are you sitting down? Get this—B of A will give 10 points to the buyer to buy down the interest rate.  Typically 1 point = .25 of a rate buydown so this means the NACA-approved buyer could end up with a 2.5 percentage point interest rate buydown. The opportunistic side of my brain started thinking about how I could buy a home this way but the skeptical side of my cold black heart tells me that maybe the First Look homes are going to be mostly dog house former meth labs in Granite Falls.

NACA Homebuyers Are Heavily Counseled 

All bets are against the NACA borrower.  Zero down, less-than-perfect credit sounds like your typical FHA borrower using gift funds for the down payment. And currently FHA’s default rate is 15%. Zero-down-less-than-perfect-credit also sounds like a subprime borrower.  At the peak of the meltdown/housing reset, subprime loans defaults went as high as 40%.

So why should NACA’s default rate be any less?  Here’s why: The NACA borrower goes through heavy pre-purchase counseling and has access to after-purchase default support services such as help with forbearance/repayment plans and loan modification support. In addition, if you have a NACA loan and you are in financial distress, you can receive 3 monthly payments paid by NACA to bring your loan out of default.

So what’s the catch?

NACA homebuyers must join NACA at a cost of $20 per month while they are attending pre-homebuyer counseling classes and then the cost is $50 per month for 5 years ($3,000.) In addition, NACA homeowners must agree to participate in 5 NACA activities each calendar year. Activities include community volunteer work, hosting a NACA meeting in your neighborhood, organizing a homebuyer workshop, participating in advocacy campaigns against predatory lenders, and so forth.

Reasons For

Clearly this is a great deal for first time homebuyers who want a mortgage with a very low interest rate and don’t mind going through the extensive homebuyer counseling, don’t mind paying $50/month for 5 years, and don’t mind carving out time to participate in 5 volunteer activities each year.  Some consumers were burned by predatory lenders during the real estate bubble and burned again with the 2008 recession. Maybe they are now renters…it’s been 2 years since their financial distress event and they are considering buying once again.  This sounds like a good program for people with a previous foreclosure of bankruptcy due to the extensive pre-purchase counseling they will get at NACA.. Anyone against predatory lending should welcome NACA to town.

Reasons Against

Clearly this is not a good loan program for people who don’t want to commit to owner occupancy for the life of the loan, or do not want to become active NACA members, are financially uber smart and would consider the homebuyer counseling classes beneath them. Budget? Savings? They’ve been doing this successfully for years and don’t need somebody to hold their hand. On the other side of the financial spectrum, not all buyers are going to fit into the NACA box including those with higher debt-to-income ratios.  Yeah, we are free-throwing those high DTI loans into the FHA program for as long as that will last. NACA DTI is a more manageable 31/40.

Sustainable homeownership should be our goal in mortgage lending. This is NACA’s main priority and I welcome NACA to Washington State.

By the way, NACA’s loan default rate is less than 1 percent.

The post NACA: The Largest Housing Services Organization in America Comes to Washington State appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Multiple offers are “the new normal” for housing market around Puget Sound

“Multiple offers have become the new normal,” remarked MLS director Diedre Haines, the Snohomish County regional managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain. “We have literally gone off the charts in absorption,” she stated, adding the dip in pending sales in that county “is all due to lack of inventory.”
…
Prices will continue to rise as current market conditions are sustained, predicts J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. Among the conditions he mentioned are historically low interest rates, pent up buyer demand, and a shortage of available inventory.
…
Whether the market becomes more balanced may depend on listings. Northwest MLS figures show every county in its service area had year-over-year gains in new listings during April. “Let’s hope this is the start of a positive trend for inventory,” commented Mike Grady, the president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain, but then added, “Considering the overall market landscape, it’s likely there won’t be enough sellers to fill buyer demand, at least for the short term.”

For once I’m on the same page as at least one of the real estate agents quoted in the NWMLS release (Mr. Grady). Of course, I’m hoping for more inventory so the market becomes more balanced, while they’re most likely motivated primarily by the additional commission checks that come with additional listings, but I’ll take what I can get.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times: County home price back to $400,000

The double-digit percentage gain in home prices is triple the inflation rate and isn’t sustainable in the long run, [Glenn] Crellin said.

“We need inventory for the market to really stabilize,” he said.
…
Eastside broker Mike Chaffee said he represents a buyer who wants a house that will ensure her son attends popular Newport High School in the Bellevue School District. His buyer is well qualified, with a 30 percent down payment.

They’ve been looking for a year.

At homes in the neighborhood, Chaffee has sprinkled fliers with unsolicited offers for “top market value,” vowing to close a deal in 30 days and save the seller money on closing costs. Chaffee said it’s an example of how buyers are getting creative.

“I’m doing my best to get this buyer a house,” he said. “If I can do it without 10 other people putting in an offer, it relieves a lot of stress on the situation.”

Two people responded to the flier: One wanted $50,000 over what the house was worth, Chaffee said, while the other asked for $100,000 over the house’s market value.

His buyer didn’t bite.

Another month of great reporting in the Seattle Times. Kudos to Sanjay Bhatt for doing a great job filling the void left by Eric Pryne’s retirement.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: King County house price back up to $400,000

“I’d been hoping to see an increase in listing activity, and I really can’t figure out what everybody’s waiting for,” Crellin said. “It’s been tight now for several months, and that doesn’t bode well for stable prices.”

It looks to me like inventory did begin to show signs of life in April. We’ll know in a few months whether we’re finally heading toward a more normal market, but I was encouraged by April’s inventory.

Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald: Supply of homes for sale tightens in county

It’s 2007 all over again for the county real estate market as antsy buyers rush to buy what’s available in a tight supply of homes for sale.
…
Several factors are contributing to a “recipe for a frenzied May real estate market,” said John Deely, another member of the Northwest MLS board of directors and the principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle.

“The market pace has not subsided from previous months with low inventory and low interest rates being the primary drivers,” he said.

Wait, that does not make sense. Low inventory is driving the “frenzied market pace”? Um, no. If anything, low inventory is holding back sales.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Pierce housing sales, prices continue up

The Pierce County housing market enjoyed another good month, with both sales and prices rising again and extending a streak that started last October, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Monday.
…
Another characteristic of the recent housing market has been fewer homes to choose from, and that continued into April as well.

Here we go again with the qualitative language, describing the market as “good” when it is clearly only good for sellers and is in fact quite frustrating for buyers. Boo.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Thurston home sales, prices rise in April

Thurston home sales and median prices rose in April, the fourth consecutive month of an improved housing market, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Monday.

Once again, the full story from The Olympian is only in the print edition, so all we get online is a brief rehash of the press release.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 05.07.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 05.06.2013)
(Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald, 05.07.2013)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 05.07.2013)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 05.06.2013)

The post Reporting Roundup: The New Normal Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Prices "spiking" as home buyers compete for scarce inventory

CASH MONEY

“All price ranges are feeling a lift,” reported Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma. Northwest MLS director John Deely echoed that comment: “We are seeing many homes in Seattle meet and exceed pre-bubble price levels,” stated Deely, the principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle.

“The recovery continues on a slow and steady pace in most areas and surging hard in others,” concluded Darin Stenvers, vice chair of the MLS board.
…
The upward spike in prices is largely the result of limited supply. “Whenever we get down to a severe shortage of homes for sale, we get double-digit home price appreciation,” observed J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.

Demand continues to outpace supply, creating high absorption rates, Deely stated, adding “Open houses are drawing large crowds.” For example, he reported several open houses from the past weekend experienced traffic exceeding 50 people per day.

Sweet, we’re back to using the old realtor standby of “open house traffic” as a measure of market demand. Never mind that pending sales had their first year-over-year decline in nearly two years. Open house traffic is on the rise! The market will expand forever!

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times: King County house prices jumped almost 20 percent over year

About a quarter of buyers are paying all cash for homes, said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate in Seattle. The rest are putting down, on average, between 20 and 50 percent cash, he said.

“I think that is pretty shocking,” Jacobi said. “It’s crazy.”

Foreclosed properties are drawing an even higher rate of all-cash offers. Seattle real-estate broker Keith Brown, who sells only foreclosed homes, estimated that roughly half the offers on a property he lists are all cash.

“I’m not quite sure where everyone is coming up with all this cash, but there’s definitely been a huge increase in the last few months,” Brown said.

Data > anecdote. All-cash deals were 38% of the Seattle-area market in 2011. I happen to have just run these numbers for Q1 in King County, and it’s up to 42%. Mr. Jacobi and Mr. Brown’s observations are both underestimating the scope of all-cash transactions, and overstating the recency of any change. All-cash deals have been growing steadily and strongly since 2007. There has been no sudden increase of all-cash sales in 2013.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Homes even harder to find in Seattle area in March

Observers of the local real estate market had hoped March would come with increasing listings, helping ease the area’s shortage of homes for sale. It didn’t, although there was a sign the sales surge could be starting to abate, or at least that people are running out of homes to buy.

“I’m a little surprised that we didn’t pick up more listings than we did,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington. “I was really hoping that we’d start to see some balance coming into the listing side of the equation, and these numbers indicate that we’re going to have a really challenging summer. … These numbers are just amazingly low.”

It gets old talking about how few listings there are, month after month, but when that’s still the biggest story in the real estate market, leading with something else doesn’t make sense.

No article has been posted yet in the Everett Herald. I’ll update this post later if they post an article today.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Pierce County real estate market continues rebound

Pierce County’s streak of improved home sales and higher median prices continued in March, with both sales and prices rising again, likely cementing the view that the slower housing market finally is behind us, according to new Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Thursday.
…
But the March data also show that sellers are beginning to sense a new direction in the market. For the third month in a row, new listings are outpacing the figure from last year.

Sounds like the inventory situation might be a little better in Tacoma than it is in the Seattle area.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Home sales in county continue to rebound

The March housing data is in for Thurston County and it looks a lot like it did in January and February, with home sales and median prices showing positive gains, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Windermere Olympia is the busiest it has been in the past four years — particularly for those homes priced between $185,000 and $225,000, which in some cases are attracting multiple offers, owner Steve Garrett said.

“Activity has picked up ten-fold,” he said, adding he expects a very productive 2013.

Ten-fold from… last month? Last year? 1880? Hmm…

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 04.04.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 04.04.2013)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 04.04.2013)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 04.05.2013)

The post Reporting Roundup: Spiking Prices Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Western Washington housing indicators aligned "for spring market to remember"

“The market is struggling to provide enough inventory for anxious buyers seeking to take advantage of low interest rates,” reported Dick Beeson, principal managing broker of RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma. Also, he lamented, considering 25 percent of the selection is distressed, “It leaves some buyers with tough choices.”
…
“Low supply and high demand continue to drive our market,” stated Northwest MLS director John Deely. He said multiple offers are the “rule rather than the exception” for new listings in core urban areas that are priced well. Deely, the principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle, noted a new listing in North Seattle recently drew 12 offers and the property was bid almost 10 percent above its listing price.

OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate Company, noted the month’s supply of homes in King County has dipped to about 1.2 months, well below the six-month threshold that many in the industry consider to be “normal.” Jacobi, who is also on the MLS board of directors, noted supply is at its lowest level since May 2005 during the peak of the housing boom. “The impact of low inventory levels is stiff competition among buyers, often resulting in homes selling for well over asking price,” he remarked. Also, he added, the imbalance also leads to rising median prices.

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott, Inc., attributes surging sales and prices to several factors, including positive job growth, historically low interest rates and fewer homes being listed. “This restriction of homes for sale is prevalent in the price ranges where more than 90 percent of activity is taking place, causing prices to rise,” he stated.

It is still worth pointing out that home prices are not really “surging,” with the non-distressed median price only up 3.8% as of January. That said, the market right now is definitely not buyer-friendly.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times: Inventory crunch drives King County home prices up

First-time homebuyers are jumping into the market, observers say, since housing prices hit bottom a year ago. When the median house price in King County hit $308,125 in February 2012, that was the lowest level in eight years.

But inventory isn’t keeping pace for several reasons:

Some sellers are waiting for prices to climb higher before listing their homes. Others still owe more on their homes than they’re worth.

A third group of sellers is unwilling to interrupt the cash flow they receive from renting out their homes at high rates.

Eric Pryne has retired, so Sanjay will be taking over the reigns for real estate reporting over at the Seattle Times. He’s done a good job in the past filling in when Eric has been out, and this month’s article is no exception.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: More home sales, fewer listings driving up prices

A continuing shortage of homes for sale drove up prices in the Seattle area in February, according to a new report. But there are signs the market could be changing.

…Pending sales — which don’t all close, but can be the best indicator of recent activity — fell 1.6 percent in Seattle and rose just 0.5 percent countywide. That could reflect an abating of the sales surge or people having trouble finding something to buy.

Short article this month from Aubrey, but he still squeezed an insight in there, pointing out that sales are likely to switch from year-over-year gains to losses soon.

Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald: County home prices surge as inventory shrinks

Shrinking home inventory once again drove a double-digit increase in year-over-year median home and condominium sales prices in Snohomish County.

“In my 37 years working in the real estate industry, I have never seen inventory this low,” Diedre Haines, regional managing broker for Coldwell Bank Bain-Snohomish County and a member of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service board of directors, said in a news release.

This month’s Herald article is little more than a minor rewrite of the NWMLS press release.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Home sales, prices continue to climb in Pierce County

The Pierce County housing market put together another impressive month in February, highlighted by a double-digit increase in median prices, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Tuesday.

That’s welcome news for homeowners, but median prices still have a way to go to match the median prices set during the boom in housing.
…
Allen Realtors of Lakewood President Mike Larson said all the metrics he follows — transactions, pending sales and phone calls to the office — are on the rise.

“We’re finally seeing some traction and momentum and that’s fueling what we’re seeing in values,” he said.

He also said he senses more confidence among consumers, partly because the election is over. Larson admitted the national economy is not exactly rosy, citing the sequester, but the “stock market is setting records just about every day.”

It’s not clear exactly what this agent means by “we’re finally seeing some traction,” but right now the market is being pretty limited by the lack of inventory. I don’t really see how an extreme shortage of homes for sale is “traction.”

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Thurston home sales increase in February

The Thurston County housing market continued to show improvement in February, with home sales rising nearly 30 percent in the year-over-year period, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Tuesday.

“I think the real estate recession is in the rearview mirror,” Windermere of Olympia real estate agent Gregory Moe said.

Home sales rose 29.9 percent to 200 units last month from 154 units in February 2012, the combined single-family residence and condominium data show.

The Olympian’s article is pretty short and to the point.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 03.05.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 03.05.2013)
(Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald, 03.05.2013)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 03.05.2013)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 03.06.2013)

The post Reporting Roundup: Tough Choices for Buyers Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Brokers report brisk sales, but rising frustration for home buyers

Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction of an early spring is showing up in the latest housing activity report from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Its statistics for January showed a 14.4 percent year-over-year increase in pending sales and a 23.6 percent jump in closed sales amid a 31.3 percent decline in inventory.
…
“I personally have never seen the ratio between active buyers and available inventory in Seattle’s close-in neighborhoods so out of balance,” remarked Mike Skahen, owner/designated broker at Lake & Co. Real Estate in Seattle. Skahen, a real estate professional since 1976, said multiple offers and bids well over the list price are common. “Even homes that were hard to sell for various reasons are being snapped up so those sellers were wise to list,” he added.

Lena Maul, a new member of the Northwest MLS board of directors, and the designated broker/owner at Windermere/North in Lynnwood, agreed now is a good time for sellers to list. “Sellers who are considering a spring or summer listing may want to consider listing now as demand is outweighing supply,” she noted, adding, “This has given well priced sellers the advantage with the benefit of quick sales and multiple offers.”

I actually agree with that last part. While it’s become a fairly lousy time to try to buy a home, it is currently a pretty great time to sell. We haven’t seen a market with supply and demand this skewed toward sellers in a long time, if ever, and it won’t last forever.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: King County home prices dip to March lows

A change in the mix of houses sold also played a part in the drop in the median, an analysis of listing-service data by online brokerage Redfin suggests.

“Distressed” sales — bank-repossessed houses and “short sales” for less than what sellers owe lenders — accounted for a bigger share of sales last month: 24 percent, compared with 19 percent in December.

That’s meaningful because distressed houses generally sell for significantly less than “non-distressed” properties.

As usual, great work from Eric at the Seattle Times. Such a dramatic contrast with the “reporting” that used to be printed over there during the bubble years under the reign of Rhodes.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Low home inventory driving up prices

The Seattle area continued to have incredibly few homes for sale in January, according to a new report.

thanks to fewer homes hitting the market and more selling, Seattle itself had 1.9 months worth of homes on the market in January, at the current sales pace, while King County had 2.2 months worth of homes, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. That’s down from 4.2 months and 5.2 months, respectively, a year earlier.

“I personally have never seen the ratio between active buyers and available inventory in Seattle’s close-in neighborhoods so out of balance,” Mike Skahen, owner of Seattle’s Lake & Co. Real Estate, said in a news release. “Even homes that were hard to sell for various reasons are being snapped up.”

Somewhat of a short piece from Aubrey this month. No much more than a rehash of the press release. I guess he’s busy with other projects.

No story has been posted in the Everett Herald again. Perhaps I should give them a call to see if they need some help with real estate reporting.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Prices, sales improve in Pierce County home sales

Fewer homes to choose from, combined with steady demand, is thought to stimulate home prices.

Home sellers, though, might be sensing an improved market because the number of new listings for January rose compared with the year-ago period. New listings just in January rose to 1,260 units from 1,043 units in January 2012.

Of course, in January of 2012, the whole Seattle area was covered with inches of ice for a week, which might have caused listings to be somewhat depressed. I wouldn’t put much stock in year-over-year comparisons of new listings for January for that reason.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Thurston County housing sales, prices up

Fewer homes to choose from, combined with buyer demand, is thought to stimulate prices.

Thurston County Realtors Association President Pat Pieroni didn’t go so far as to say the turnaround in the housing market is complete, but it is a sign that the market has hit bottom and is beginning to rise again, he said.

“There’s just a good feeling out there right now,” Pieroni said Tuesday, adding that prospective buyers are a little more motivated than they were a few months ago.

January also was much busier than it typically is, he said.

Nothing like “just a good feeling” to drive the market. Or something.

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 02.05.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 02.05.2013)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 02.06.2013)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 02.06.2013)

The post Reporting Roundup: Seller’s Market Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Northwest MLS Tallies Busy December as First-time Buyers, Investors Return

While the expected seasonal slowdown occurred last month, determined buyers were undaunted by sparse inventory and record-breaking rainy days, according to December statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Frenzy!

“This is a unique housing market,” said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “There is nothing normal about the combination of factors fueling the current market,” he added.
…
Brokers expect the housing market rebound to continue, while cautioning sellers to refrain from becoming too greedy and expressing hope for “controlled natural growth” to sustain the recovery. They also believe distressed properties, rising rents and re-engaged investors will have an impact on activity for the foreseeable future.
…
Looking ahead, many brokers expect a strong market in 2013, with some expressing concern about “frenzied bubble growth.”

Oh yeah. I bet they are real concerned about that prospect. I’m sure it keeps them up at night.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: Local supply of homes for sale hits another record low

The number of houses for sale in King County has hit yet another record low, according to statistics released Monday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“There’s just nothing available out there,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of research at the University of Washington’s Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies.
…
Inventory — or lack of it — has been driving the Seattle area real-estate market for several months. Brokers and analysts attribute it mostly to the large number of “underwater” homeowners who are disinclined to sell because they owe lenders more than their houses are worth.

The UW’s Crellin predicted inventory will increase in coming months, in part because rising home prices mean fewer homeowners are underwater.

2012 was indeed the year of crappy selection, start to finish.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: December saw slowing home sales, rising prices

One reason for the decrease in pending sales is that sales had started to pick up last December, said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington.

Another may be the dearth of homes for sale, he said. “It could be that the potential buyers aren’t finding anything they like.”

And, unlike during the bubble years, he said: “This time they’re not willing to jump in and buy anything that’s on the market in their price range.”

Crellin is on a roll the last couple of years. He’s spot on here.

It seems that the Everett Herald has not posted a story about the December data yet. If I see one later today I will update this post to include it.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Home sales offer happy ending to 2012 in Pierce County

The Pierce County housing market ended 2012 on a positive note as median prices rose 14.48 percent, the largest percentage increase of the year, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Monday.

Median prices rose to $200,563 last month from $175,199 in December 2011, the combined single-family residence and condominium data show. Home sales in the same year-over-year period weren’t as strong, rising just 2.15 percent to 808 units from 791 units, the combined data show.

Hmm, here we go again, describing “the market” as “positive,” when really it’s only positive for sellers. I had hoped that we would leave this kind of language behind with the bursting of the bubble.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Fewer homes for sale, but prices remain low

The number of homes for sale in Thurston County fell under 1,000 units in December for the first time in six years, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Monday.

The number of homes for sale fell 25.38 percent to 988 units in December from 1,324 units in December 2011, the combined single-family residence and condominium data show.

A combination of factors have contributed to the lower inventory levels, and it could mean that less supply and buyer demand stimulate home prices, Washington Realtors Association President Mark Kitabayashi said Monday.

Inventory levels are lower because sellers are waiting for prices to rise, but also because of the holidays, and the uncertainty created by the election and the so-called “fiscal cliff,” he said.

“It all kinds of adds up,” he said.

So, inventory fell between December 2011 and December 2012 “because of the holidays”? I wonder which holidays we had in 2012 but not 2011…

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 01.07.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 01.07.2013)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 01.08.2013)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 09.06.2013)

The post Reporting Roundup: Unique Greedy Frenzy Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

High demand, low inventory sparking multiple offers, market momentum

Woo! Momentum!

“The market is done with needed correction,” declared one broker.
…
“There continues to be extremely low inventory levels and high buyer demand which is causing multiple offers in many local areas,” reported OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. He also noted a “definite uptick” in the number of cash buyers, “many of which are investors.”
…
Frank Wilson, another MLS director and the branch managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate, described the current market as “the best of most worlds: low interest rates, a supply of homes to choose from that are aggressively priced, and lenders who are beginning to engage in ‘make sense’ loans.”

Moorhead noted short sales are up significantly from two years ago “and now outpace bank owned (REO) listings,” prompting outreach to hesitant sellers. “We all have a call out to sellers who are on the fence to remind them this is the first ‘sellers market’ we have seen since 2007. This also means sellers who were on the edge of being in a short sale situation may actually be on the positive side of the ledger,” he added.

It’s always a great time to buy or sell a home! I also love the claim that somehow today’s market is great for buyers because of “a supply of homes to choose from.” Never mind that it’s the smallest supply we’ve seen since they started keeping records.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: More buyers, few sellers, push up King County home prices

Inventory — or a lack of it — is driving King County’s residential real-estate market, brokers and industry observers say. Statistics released Wednesday by the listing service underscore the impact.

Countywide, just 3,720 houses were on the market as of Nov. 30, 14 percent fewer than at the end of October and 43 percent fewer than a year ago.

Inventory always dips in winter. But it hasn’t been this low since at least 1999.

Closed sales in November, however, were up 19 percent year-over-year. There were 16 percent more closings than new listings last month.

As usual, a straightforward take on the latest data from Eric Pryne. Nothing overly sensational and a clear explanation of the various factors that are driving the market.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Seattle-area house prices surge

“Incredible,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington. “I’m surprised by how much they’ve jumped.”

Median prices can go up if there’s a change in the makeup of houses that sell in a given month. It could be, for instance, that buyers are taking advantage of record low interest rates to buy pricier houses. Indexes that look at repeat sales of the same houses have shown smaller gains.

But the median price “is indicative of how much money people are spending in the marketplace,” Crellin said.

It “certainly” reflects the extremely low inventory of homes for sale, particularly nice homes close to urban centers, he added. “There are bidding wars.”

I still think it’s a stretch to describe what’s going on right now as a “surge” in home prices. Bank-owned sales have fallen through the floor, so when we compare the median sale price in November 2011 to the median sale price in November 2012 we’re looking at two very different sets of homes.

Herald Staff, Everett Herald: Home sales steady in number, higher in price

The number of homes sold last month in Snohomish County was on par with November 2011, but prices were up.

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service indicated in a report Wednesday that a total of 806 single-family homes and condos sold in the county last month.

That’s half of the entire “story” from the Herald this month. Apparently they didn’t have anyone available to write a real piece this month.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Pierce County home sales, prices continue to rise

Pierce County home sales and median prices rose in November, the second consecutive month in which both categories showed improvement, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Wednesday.

Home sales increased nearly 11 percent to 841 units last month from 758 units from November 2011, the combined single-family residence and condo data show. Median prices rose, too, climbing 5.5 percent to $195,000 last month from $184,848 a year ago, the combined data show.

And that’s about half of the News Tribune’s story, too.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Increases in Thurston home sales stop

An eight-month streak of improved home sales in Thurston County came to an end in November as sales fell 11 percent, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service released Wednesday.

Thurston County home sales fell 11.66 percent to 197 units last month from 223 units in November 2011, the combined single-family residence and condo data show.

Several Thurston County real estate brokers could not be reached to comment on November’s data.

Now that is interesting. I did not notice that home sales were down year-over-year in Thurston. I’ll have to look at this a bit more in the next few weeks to see if there’s anything more noteworthy behind this blip in Thurston.

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 12.05.2012)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 12.05.2012)
(Herald Staff, Everett Herald, 12.05.2012)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 12.05.2012)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 12.06.2012)

The post Reporting Roundup: Market Momentum Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Seattle’s apartment boom extends far beyond Ballard. Nearly 8,400 units are under construction in the city now — the largest number in at least 20 years, according to Dupre + Scott.

Developers are building them because demand has risen, led by a demographic surge of young adults who prefer in-city living, at a time when there’s little new supply.

Few projects were built during the recession. The last new complex in Ballard opened more than two years ago.

But analysts such as Cain and Dupre + Scott’s Mike Scott forecast that, in a year or so, all the new construction will start to tip the balance between demand and supply.

Vacancies will rise, they say. Rents will stabilize, perhaps drop. Landlords will start offering tenants concessions like free rent again.

And the turnaround could be most dramatic in neighborhoods like Ballard where developers have been most active.

“That submarket is getting an awful lot of product in a very short time,” says Scott. “It’s bound to have an impact.”

“It … could be a disaster,” Cain, whose clients are mostly landlords, wrote of Ballard nearly a year ago.

“Except, of course, for the tenants.”

It’s definitely worth reading the whole thing. It definitely sounds like the apartment rental market is going to get a lot more competitive (in renters’ favor) soon.

The post The Rent Won’t Be Too Damn High For Long appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Housing recovery continues with prices rising as inventory dips to lowest level since 2006

“Jump!” by Flickr user mao_lini

Last month’s housing inventory around western Washington fell to its lowest level since February 2006, according to statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
The shortage of inventory is helping propel prices. J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, commented on the correlation of sharply reduced inventory and rising prices. “The rise in prices is derived from seasonally strong sales activity in a shortage of inventory market,” he remarked.

That comment makes no sense. The median price is down $10,000 from its summer peak, so how could “seasonally strong sales activity” (whatever that even means) have anything to do with the current price trend?

Unfortunately that’s the most interesting bit in their release. It seems that even the home salespeople that run the show over there are having a hard time coming up with anything new to say about this boring market.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: Home sales rise while inventory plummets in October

October’s 16 percent rise in the median single-family sale price in King County was the biggest year-over-year jump since July 2006.

But that increase is somewhat misleading.

House prices took a big drop in October 2011, with the median falling to $320,000 after hovering in the $345,000-350,000 range for several months.

This October’s $370,000 median looks strong in comparison. But the median has been slightly higher, between $375,000 and $380,000, in each of the past four months.

Another factor in the big year-over-year increase: The mix of houses selling has changed.

In October 2011, bank-repossessed houses, which are generally priced lower, made up 21 percent of all sales in King County, according to Redfin. Last month, that figure was just 7 percent.

As usual, Eric hits the nail on the head. It is such a refreshing change from the bubble years to have a competent, coherant real estate reporter at the Seattle Times who doesn’t just regurgitate the breathless sales spin from the MLS and local agents.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Home prices post biggest jump in six years

King County house prices registered their biggest gain in more than six years in October, according to a new report.

The median price of a house that sold in October was $370,000, up 15.6 percent from a year earlier, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Monday. That’s the biggest year-to-year jump since July 2006, although the median price is still down 23 percent from its peak in July 2007.
…
“Wow. Things are certainly going very very well for the county,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington.

That said, the big boost to the median sales price is “probably an overstatement of what would be viewed as ‘appreciation,'” Crellin said.

One reason for this is that sales of homes in or under threat of foreclosure are down from last year, as a share of all homes, Crellin said. Such homes typically sell at a discount. Meanwhile, sales of higher-end homes in better condition and locations are picking up, he said.

Glenn Crellin, representing the voice of reason.

Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald: Local real estate sales prices up 11 percent in October

Snohomish County’s housing market mirrored the rest of Western Washington in October, with listings at their lowest level since February 2006 driving year-over-year sales prices up by double digits for the first time since March 2007.

No real meat in the Herald today, just some regurgitated press release quotes. Disappointing.

John Gillie, Tacoma News Tribune: Home prices up in Pierce and Thurston counties on shrinking supply

Single family home prices showed a significant rebound in Pierce, King and Thurston counties last month as the supply of homes on the market continued to shrink.

The median Pierce County home sales price rose by 6.97 percent to $201,000 in October, reported the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. In Thurston County, median prices rose to $220,000 from $212,500, and in King County, median home sales prices hit $370,000, up 15.63 percent from $320,000 a year ago October.

Same story in the News Tribune. Just a handful of numbers with no real insights.

John Gillie, The Olympian: Sales, prices for condos, homes increase from ’11

Single-family home prices showed a significant rebound in year-over-year comparisons in Pierce, King and Thurston counties last month as the supply of homes on the market continued to shrink.

Wait a minute… this is the same article that was in the News Tribune. I guess Olympia is basically the same as Tacoma. Or something.

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 11.05.2012)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 11.05.2012)
(Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald, 11.05.2012)
(John Gillie, Tacoma News Tribune, 11.05.2012)
(John Gillie, The Olympian, 11.06.2012)

The post Reporting Roundup: Price Jump Fake Out Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It’s time once again for the monthly reporting roundup, where you can read my wry commentary about the news instead of subjecting yourself to boring rehashes of the NWMLS press release (or in addition to, if that’s what floats your boat).

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Housing market rebound continues, with "slow, unprepared buyers" settling for "2nd choice" homes

[MLS director Darin] Stenvers, the office managing broker at John L. Scott, Inc., in Bellingham, said the ingredients are in place for “a perfect buying season,” citing rapid absorption of inventory and well-priced homes as two factors. How long such conditions will last is “the $64,000 question,” he stated, noting pent-up demand in some areas has buyers feeling the pressure to move quickly to get their offers accepted.
…

“Empty shelves at a grocery store” by Flickr user Chris Waits

Despite brisk activity, Stenvers noted foreclosures and owners who are delinquent on mortgage payments remain a concern. The number of owners nationwide who are 90 days or more late in making payments is again on the rise, a situation that will continue to affect foreclosure rates, he explained.

“The lack of foreclosed homes not coming on the market has successfully stabilized prices but also created a lack of homes for buyers to buy,” Stenvers stated.

Buyers are also weighing the pros and cons of renting or buying. “The rent versus buy conundrum is still the biggest obstacle facing buyers today,” Stenvers reported.

Wow I don’t know why NWMLS hasn’t gone to this Stenvers fellow for quotes before. He’s a gold mine. According to Mr. Stenvers, record-low inventories could be considered to be the setup for “a perfect buying season.” I also really liked “the lack of foreclosed homes not coming on the market…” double negative for the win.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: King County home sales, median prices up from year ago

…2012 so far has been the best year for sales volume since the real-estate bust in 2008. Buyers are looking again, lured back to the market by record-low mortgage interest rates, rising rents and home prices that appear to have stabilized.

But the bust still is exerting some influence. Experts blame the lack of inventory in part on homeowners who bought just before the peak in summer 2007 and now can’t afford to sell. They owe lenders more than their homes are worth.
…
In downtown Seattle and Belltown condos, however, the median price rose nearly 19 percent, to $409,000.

When distressed sales are excluded, the median price of condos sold downtown over the past three months is actually higher than it was during the same period in 2007 — before the crash, according to data compiled by brokerage Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty.

Hmm, interesting claim from Realogics Sotheby’s. I’ll have to dig into that to see if I can confirm.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: King County home prices, sales up; inventory down

The story remained the same in King County’s real estate market last month: prices and sales rose from last year, while the supply continued to be down.

While increasing sales are a big factor in driving down inventory, another issue is that rising prices don’t seem to be enticing more people to list their homes for sale. In fact, new King County listings were down 2.7 percent in September from a year earlier.

It may be that prices still haven’t risen enough for people to sell for more than they paid during the bubble years. Another possibility is that people have decided to sell, but need time to prepare their homes.

Probably more the first than the second.

Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald: Snohomish County housing prices still rising

Snohomish County home sales and median sale prices showed another year-over-year increase in September, while the number of listed homes and condominiums shrank by nearly half.

The imbalance between supply and demand is “wreaking havoc” with some buyers and sellers, said Northwest MLS director George Moorhead, branch manager at Bentley Properties in Bothell. Some sellers are lamenting “missed opportunities,” but he thinks positive momentum will continue with a combination of tight inventory, record-low interest rates and changing views on home ownership.

“We are seeing clients’ views change from a home being a short-term investment vehicle to being a place where we raise and teach our families,” Moorhead said in a news release.

Nothing much more in this article than what’s in the NWMLS press release, unfortunately.

I couldn’t find a story this month in the Tacoma News Tribune. If something pops up I might come back and update this post.

John Gillie, The Olympian: County real estate continues to lag

While a lean supply of homes and condominiums for sale coupled with a healthier supply of buyers helped drive up average residential sale prices 9.2 percent in Western Washington, median prices in Thurston County continued falling from year-ago prices, said the Northwest Multiple Listing Service said Thursday.

In Pierce County the numbers were up 4.6 percent, according to new figures from the NMLS (sic).

Looks like we only get to read the short blurb version of the article online this month. The Olympian publishes a more in-depth story, but apparently only in print.

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 10.04.2012)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 10.04.2012)
(Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald, 10.04.2012)
(John Gillie, The Olympian, 10.05.2012)

The post Reporting Roundup: Empty Store Shelves Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

September housing statistics around Washington indicate recovery is continuing, strengthening sellers’ positions

“The biggest story this year is that the market has flipped,” proclaimed J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. He attributes the shift to a seller’s market in most areas and prices to a combination of factors, including historically low interest rates, lower adjusted prices, the shortage of inventory, an elevated number of investors, and the return of local home buyers.

Northwest MLS directors OB Jacobi and Joe Spencer are similarly encouraged by the latest numbers, mentioning steady momentum, rising consumer confidence, low inventory, a pickup of activity in new construction, and improving prospects for homeowners who are underwater.
…
Another MLS director, Joe Spencer, said the low inventory and heightened buyer activity are resulting in an imbalance of supply and demand, but he believes that “bodes well as we move into the fall season, which typically ushers in an increase in buyer activity.”

Buyers and sellers are “clearly more confident,” reported Spencer, the area director for Keller Williams. These consumers “are looking to take advantage of the market rebound in what appears to be a continued slow and sustainable recovery.”

I’m not sure how Mr. Spencer defines of an “increase in buyer activity,” but sales typically head on a steady pace downward every month after June or July:

If Joe Spencer is expecting some sort of fall spike, I think he’s going to be disappointed…

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: Sales hot in August for homes in King County

It all sounds good if you’re selling, or thinking about it.

But can this recovery last?

Two analysts say they foresee no imminent turnaround. But they won’t rule it out.
…
Glenn Crellin, associate director of research at the University of Washington’s Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies, said the economy and real-estate market both could suffer if the federal government doesn’t find a way around the so-called “fiscal cliff” of automatic tax increases and spending cuts at the end of the year.

But for now, he added, the local market looks healthy. Rising prices are giving more formerly “underwater” homeowners — who once owed lenders more than their homes were worth — equity in their houses again, he said.
…
Another reason prices are rising: The mix of houses that are selling has changed.

Last month bank-repossessed houses, which usually sold at a steep discount, made up just 6 percent of all King County sales, down from 17 percent in August 2011, according to online brokerage Redfin.

It hasn’t been this low in more than three years.

I was the other analyst quoted in Eric’s article. The steep drop in sales of bank-owned homes is a topic we have covered here in recent months.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Seattle-area home shoppers find slim pickings

King County has “such a short supply that it invites further price increases,” Crellin said. “The Realtors are right. They need inventory.”

So why aren’t more people listing their homes for sale, given the high demand?

Jacobi, Kelman and Crellin all pointed to owners who still wouldn’t be able to ask what they paid for their homes at or near the height of the market.

“They’ve sort of resigned themselves to staying put for awhile,” Crellin said.

Priced in forever!

Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald: County housing market shows improvement for sellers

Closed sales, reflecting several months of strong pending sales, reached the highest volume so far in 2012. Northwest MLS said its brokers tallied 6,612 closings last month, continuing a streak of four months of 6,000 or more completed transactions.

In Snohomish County, MLS brokers had 1,057 closed sales of single-family homes and condos in August, up 15.4 percent. The median sales price rose 6 percent, from $232,000 to $246,000.
…
“Inventory levels are incredibly low, but our hope is that many homeowners who were underwater can now afford to sell because of the continued appreciation of home prices,” said Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate Co.

“In housing markets, slow and steady recoveries are good,” said MLS director Frank Wilson, the branch managing broker at John L. Scott’s Poulsbo office. “A market that runs too high or too fast leads to a quick decline in short order.”

He said he expects good momentum to continue into the fall.

Hah, I love that now the real estate agents are concerned about “a market that runs too high or too fast.” Where were these guys in 2005?

Kathleen Cooper, Tacoma News Tribune: August’s home price rise biggest of 2012 for Pierce County, MLS says

Sale prices of homes and condos in Pierce County had the highest year-over year increase of 2012 last month, data released Wednesday show.

The combined median sale price of homes and condos in August was $199,950, a 7 percent increase over the price at the same time a year ago, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
Other good signs: Closed sales in Pierce County increased by 3 percent compared with August 2011, while about 28 percent fewer homes were for sale.

I’m not sure that I would describe the dramatic decrease in inventory as a “good sign,” but whatever.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Thurston home sales top 300 units for second time this year

The Thurston County housing market had its second best month of the year in August, with home sales rising to more than 300 units, nearly equaling a mark set in June, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released this week.

Sales rose to 306 units last month, a 27.5 percent increase over the 240 units that sold in the same period last year, the combined single-family residence and condominium data show. In June, 307 units sold in the county, the data show.

Not much meat in this one. It seems that the full article from The Olympian must not be online.

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 09.05.2012)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 09.05.2012)
(Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald, 09.05.2012)
(Kathleen Cooper, Tacoma News Tribune, 09.06.2012)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 09.06.2012)

The post August Reporting Roundup: Market Flip Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The primary issue is whether MERS is a lawful beneficiary with the power to appoint trustees within the deed of trust act if it does not hold the promissory notes secured by the deeds of trust. A plain reading of the statute leads us to conclude that only the actual holder of the promissory note or other instrument evidencing the obligation may be a beneficiary with the power to appoint a trustee to proceed with a nonjudicial foreclosure on real property. Simply put, if MERS does not hold the note, it is not a lawful beneficiary.

I’m not an attorney, so the full implications of this ruling are not entirely clear to me, but the unclear standing of MERS before this ruling may have much to do with why foreclosures in Washington were declining through much of 2011 and early 2012. Banks simply couldn’t foreclose through MERS when they still held the note.

With this ruling there is now a clear path for banks that use MERS to process foreclosures in our state. Before beginning a foreclosure, MERS will need to record a deed back to the bank that actually holds the note, who must then initiate foreclosure proceedings themselves.

It will be interesting to see if this has much of an effect on the foreclosure stats over the next six to twelve months now that the question of how much can MERS legally do in a foreclosure has been answered.

[Update: More analysis was posted this evening at The Seattle Times]

The post Washington State Supreme Court: MERS May Not Foreclose Unless They Hold the Note appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Multiple offers for homes stimulated by constricted supply, favorable financing

Brokers around western Washington reported brisk activity during July with home buyers scrambling to take advantage of attractive financing while encountering shrinking inventory and, in some areas, rising prices.
…
J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, said strong summer sales and low inventory in the Puget Sound region are resulting in price increases and multiple offer situations. Prospective purchasers need to be “buyer-ready to get a home in today’s market,” he emphasized, noting that pre-approval on a loan and becoming very familiar with market conditions can be beneficial.
…
“Counter to the historic yearly pattern of increasing inventory from January to late summer, this year we have seen inventory levels shrink month over month,” observed Joe Spencer, area director for the Northwest Region of Keller Williams. “This pattern of shrinking inventory, historically low interest rates and higher consumer confidence clearly signals that the market is on the rebound,” he added.

*Yawn*

This month’s release is surprisingly low on hyperbole and misleading or flat-out incorrect statements. It must have been written by an intern who hasn’t yet learned the ways of the used home salesman.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Connor Radnovich, Seattle Times: King County home prices up 7 percent from last year

With more would-be buyers than sellers, the buyers are starting to become frustrated, said Ellis and Seattle real-estate economist Matthew Gardner.

Gardner said the major reason for the low number of listings is that people are underwater on their mortgages — they owe more than their homes are worth — and have to stay in their homes.

He said the levels of inventory are the lowest they have been since early 2006.

People want to move, Gardner said, but can’t afford to pay the bank to leave and are waiting to get above water before they sell their homes.

This may be the first time on record that I find myself agreeing with Matthew Gardner.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: King County house prices up from 2011, down from June

The story continues to be extremely low inventory. The county had 2.4 months worth of homes for sale at the current pace in July. That’s unchanged from June and down from 5.4 months worth of homes for sale in July 2011. Seattle had 2.2 months worth of inventory, down from 4.6 months a year earlier but up from 2 months in June.
…
A lower level of “distressed homes” — those in or under threat of foreclosure — has helped buoy prices, because these homes typically sell at a discount.

Yup, that’s what I’ve been pointing out for months now. Much of this year’s apparent increase in prices is really just a decrease in distressed sales.

Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald: Home sale prices rise again in county

Record-low mortgage interest rates and a shrinking inventory of homes for sale again drove up sales prices across most of Snohomish County in July, a trend that first became apparent in April.

This month’s Herald piece is little more than a handful of numbers presented in prose form instead of a table, with a Joe Spencer NWMLS press release quote thrown in for good measure.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Expert: Real-estate market in better shape

Despite lackluster results for the Pierce County housing market in July, a Lakewood-based real estate broker thinks the market is in much better shape than the data would suggest.

Pierce County home sales and median prices in the year-over-year July period were flat for the most part, with sales rising 2.36 percent to 860 units from 838 units, according to combined single-family residence and condominium data released by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service on Monday.
…
The fact that inventory levels continue to fall – possibly the lowest in five or six years – and has not stimulated prices because there’s less to choose from, was surprising for the July data, said Mike Larson, president and designated broker of Lakewood-based Allen Realtors.

Home prices aren’t “stimulated” by low inventory, they’re driven by local economic fundamentals—i.e. incomes. Why is that basic fact still so hard for real estate salespeople to understand?

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Hopeful news continues for Thurston County home sales

The Thurston County housing market had one of its best months of the year in July — at least in percentage terms — as home sales rose 14.17 percent in the year-over-year July period, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Monday.

Although monthly sales fell below 300 units, last month’s sales still outperformed the market in July 2011, rising to 282 units from 247 units, the combined single-family residence and condominium data show.
…
Van Dorm Realty Managing Broker Steve Pust said the local housing market continues to get better and better, making it 14 straight months of sales increases for the west-side real estate brokerage, one of the largest in the area.
…
“Honest to goodness, confidence levels are increasing,” Pust said.

I love the “honest to goodness” bit. It’s almost as if he doesn’t expect you to trust the word of a salesman. Odd.

(Connor Radnovich, Seattle Times, 08.06.2012)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 08.06.2012)
(Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald, 08.06.2012)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 08.07.2012)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 08.06.2012)

The post July Reporting Roundup: Summer Yawn-Fest Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The whole thing is worth a watch, but the real fun starts at the 5:38 mark, when host Tom Layson has Zillow’s Senior Economist Svenja Gudell and Tacoma agent and former NWMLS head Dick Beeson in studio for some Q&A.

After introducing the guests, Layson confronts Beeson with the chart from this 2008 Seattle Bubble post in which I annotated a graph of falling home prices with bottom-calling quotes from Beeson.

I’m not picking on you here, but I have a little chart from 2007 and 2008 that your friends at Seattle Bubble put together there, and you’ve called the bottom at least three times during the two-year period.

Gudell can be heard laughing in the background.

Layton goes on to ask Beeson if he’s ready to call the bottom again today, to which Beeson’s reply is to hem and haw for a few minutes and not really commit to anything.

Just for grins, here’s an updated version of the chart for today:

I wasn’t able to find any bottom calls since mid-2010 from Dick Beeson. It seems that he may have finally decided to stop setting himself up for ridicule like that.

The post Dick Beeson Finally Reluctant to Call the Bottom appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Sales volume, home prices around Washington state rising amid inventory shortages in many areas

The dinosaur represents rising interest rates, raining down the terror of double financial impact on the hapless homebuyer… or something.

June may have been cooler and wetter than normal, but weather did not seem to deter home buyers and sellers around western Washington. “Close-in Seattle neighborhoods have been experiencing the most intense buyer activity since 2006,” one broker remarked.

Northwest MLS directors credited several factors for contributing to brisk activity, with many of them mentioning inventory shortages. “Consumers bothered by the lack of inventory are ready to make sure they do not miss out on the shift in the market,” stated MLS board member Darin Stenvers, office managing broker at John L. Scott in Bellingham.

Frank Wilson, another MLS director, believes a unique aspect of this market is “artificially low interest rates” and said waiting to buy a home “could result in a double financial impact.”

Wow, some amazing logic on display there. Lack of selection is causing people to buy a home so “they do not miss out”? And you’d better buy quick before rates go up! It’s not like real estate agents have been using that line for the last decade or so.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: King County median home price up 10 percent over year ago

King County house prices saw a double-digit increase in June — the first time that’s happened in nearly five years, according to statistics released Thursday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
“The numbers are even more positive than I had anticipated they would be,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director for research at the University of Washington’s Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies.
…
What’s behind the turnaround? Analysts pointed to several factors.

For one, the mix of homes that are selling has shifted. In February bank-owned houses — usually lower priced — accounted for nearly 23 percent of all single-family sales in King County, according to online brokerage Redfin.

Last month? Less than 10 percent.
…
Crellin said he expected the “shadow inventory” of foreclosed houses would have had a bigger impact on home prices by now.

“It just isn’t becoming as big a problem as I expected it would be,” he said.

Kudos as usual to Eric, taking the time to talk to multiple sources and try to understand what’s really going on in the market instead of just parroting the NWMLS press release, as some other reporters have been prone to do.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: King County house prices rise by double digits

A dearth of houses for sale in June and fewer bank-owned listings helped push King County house prices up by double digits for the first time since the housing bust, according to a new report.
…
There’s a “critical shortage of listings,” particularly under $500,000, said Mike Skahen, the owner/designated broker at Lake & Co. Real Estate in Seattle. “It is not unusual for more than 50 buyers to come through open houses, and it’s become common now to hold listings open on both Saturday and Sunday.”

The heating market hasn’t renewed the buy-at-all-costs frenzy of a few years ago, agents said.

“What we find interesting today is the move away from a home being just an investment, but rather a long-term look at a specific neighborhood and how it complements a lifestyle,” Moorhead said. “Everyone we have interviewed still feels real estate is one of the best investments one can make, but they also realize it too has a downside. Therefore, you just cannot throw caution to the wind anymore.”

Really? After the biggest housing bust of all time “everyone still feels real estate is one of the best investments”?!? Unbelievable. Nothing will get through to some people, it seems.

Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald Business Journal: Inventory shortages push up home prices

A shrinking inventory of available homes has started to drive up median sales prices and volumes of single-family residences in Snohomish County.
…
Snohomish County’s available home inventory sank from 4,548 units in June 2011 to 2,359 units this June, or 48.13 percent, according to data released July 3 by the listing service. MLS data indicates there is less than a two-month supply of homes for sale in Snohomish and King counties. Most analysts believe a supply of five to six months indicates a balanced housing market.

That tight inventory is driving sales activity upward.

Wait, what? Low supply is causing increased demand? Um, no. Low supply coupled with increasing demand is driving up prices.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Home sales in county can’t keep May’s pace

After the Pierce County housing market posted an 8 percent increase in home sales in May, the market reversed course in June and fell more than 3 percent, according to data released Thursday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Although sales fell, a Pierce County real estate broker said it’s not enough of a decline to cause concern because the housing market overall continues to improve.

“The market has stabilized, and the market will pick up,” said Mike Larson, president and designated broker for Allen Realtors in Lakewood. “Buyers should look at it the same way.”

Here’s a crazy thought: Maybe buyers are getting sick of having nothing to choose from, and aren’t just going to buy whatever crap happens to be sitting around on the market?

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Thurston home sales top 300 units for first time this year

Thurston County home sales rose nearly 6 percent in June, cracking 300 units sold for the first time this year, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Thursday.

Home sales rose 5.86 percent to 307 units last month from 290 in June 2011, while prices were flat in the same period, down 1.08 percent to $226,000 from $228,475, the combined single-family residence and condo data show.
…
“It is improving, and we know it’s improving,” Van Dorm Realty managing broker Steve Pust said about the Thurston County housing market.

“It feels like we’re at bottom,” he added, although he chuckled at his own comment because the bottom of the housing market has been a moving target for some time.

“Some time” as in, agents have been calling the bottom for nearly 5 years, basically since the first time prices showed signs of slipping.

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 07.05.2012)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 07.05.2012)
(Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald Business Journal, 07.05.2012)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 07.06.2012)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 07.05.2012)

The post June Reporting Roundup: Double Financial Impact Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Tight inventory, record-low mortgage rates fueling Western Washington home sales
Low listing inventory and plunging mortgage rates are fueling buyer competition for homes close to job centers, according to brokers who commented on the latest market report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…

Instant Market Activity!

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, described activity as a “double quick action market.” He noted local home buyers are back purchasing homes, “igniting strong sales activity up the price points.” This, combined with the low supply, and in some areas, shortages of homes for sale, is creating what Scott said is “instant market activity from a backlog of home buyers” when market-ready homes are listed.

“Double Quick Action Market” sounds like it should be a super hero anime or something. “Instant Market Activity!” would be the team of heros’ catchphrase, shouted out as they fly into the air, fists-forward, slow motion against a background of multicolored rays.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: House prices stay on rise in King and Snohomish counties

House prices rose in May in King County for the second consecutive month, prompting market-watchers to employ with greater certainty some words you may not have heard in a good long while:

Rebound. Stabilization. A seller’s market.
…
The year-over-year increase was the biggest since prices peaked in 2007 — and there have been few months since then with any increase at all.
…
Glenn Crellin, associate director for research at the University of Washington’s Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies, said the numbers didn’t surprise him. He’s been popping into open houses during walks around his neighborhood, Queen Anne.

Compared to three months ago, “the quality hasn’t changed, but the prices have,” he said. “They’ve gone up. And the houses are selling faster.

Eric also picked up my data about the 5-point drop in the share of bank-owned homes compared to a year ago. The article also touches on the buyer sentiment survey released this week by Redfin (my employer), that shows a shift in market psychology, as more buyers realize that it has become a seller’s market.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Seattle house prices post double-digit increase

Rising sales and low inventory helped push Seattle house prices up by 10.5 percent in May from a year earlier, according to a new report.
…
“Things that are in good condition are selling, they’re selling quickly, and they’re selling at good prices, from the seller’s point of view,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington.

So the bottom is clearly past, right?

“It’s still going to be pretty neighborhood specific, but we’re clearly past the bottom in some of the more desirable neighborhoods, Seattle and Bellevue, close to employment centers,” Crellin said.

I think this is the first true bottom call I’ve seen from Mr. Crellin. Although he was quite the sales booster back in the bubble days, in recent years I’ve found myself agreeing with nearly everything he has to say about the market, and this call is no exception.

Michelle Dunlop, Everett Herald: Home prices up again in Snohomish County

Home prices in Snohomish County increased again in May — establishing a two-month trend, according to a report released Monday evening.
…
The inventory of homes in Snohomish County is lower than that of any of the other 20 counties in the state tracked by the Northwest MLS. The county has a 1.5 month supply of homes on the market, meaning it would take that long to sell the homes available if no new houses were listed for sale. Analysts say that a 5 to 6 month supply of homes indicates a balanced housing market.

Not a lot of meat in this month’s article from the Herald.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Local home sales up in May, prices steady

The inventory of homes in Snohomish County is lower than that of any of the other 20 counties in the state tracked by the Northwest MLS. The county has a 1.5 month supply of homes on the market, meaning it would take that long to sell the homes available if no new houses were listed for sale. Analysts say that a 5 to 6 month supply of homes indicates a balanced housing market.
…
Allen Realtors of Lakewood President and designated broker Mike Larson also pointed to the county’s falling inventory of homes for sale as another indicator of a more balanced housing market to stimulate sales. Inventory levels fell more than 30 percent to 3,758 units from 5,501 units, the combined data show.

“The supply and demand is not so extreme,” Larson said about the current state of the housing market. When the supply of homes is higher, such as when its closer to 5,000 units, buyers become choosier and sellers are forced to lower their prices to compete for those buyers, he said.

Hmm, perhaps demand isn’t very extreme right now, but supply is definitely extremely low.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Area home sales rise as prices remain flat

Thurston County’s housing market showed improvement for the third consecutive month and the South Sound real estate community is sensing a turnaround.

Home sales rose and median prices largely were flat in May, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Monday.
…
“Residential markets are perking up after nearly five years of decline,” said Ken Anderson, president and owner of Coldwell Banker Evergreen Olympic Realty, in an email. “Prices have stabilized and pent up demand is being unleashed.”

Apparently all the pent-up supply is still leashed.

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 06.04.2012)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 06.04.2012)
(Michelle Dunlop, Everett Herald, 06.05.2012)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 06.04.2012)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 06.05.2012)

The post May Reporting Roundup: Double Quick Action Market appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It’s time once again for the monthly reporting roundup, where you can read my wry commentary about the news instead of subjecting yourself to boring rehashes of the NWMLS press release (or in addition to, if that’s what floats your boat).

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Western Washington housing market "energized" and showing signs of "definite turnaround"

Northwest Multiple Listing Service brokers reported double-digit gains in both pending and closed sales during April compared to a year ago, but the most eye-catching number may pertain to prices. For the first time in more than four years (since January 2008) the year-over-year change in selling prices was positive.
…
Prices for single family homes continued climbing. The median price for last month’s closed sales was $250,000, up from both a year ago ($242,950) and from March ($234,487).

While cheered by the figure that snapped a 50-month string of negative numbers for year-over-year price comparisons, Northwest MLS brokers said consumers must be realistic in their expectations. They also noted the market recovery will be slow and incremental.
…
Tight inventory is creating sellers’ markets in some areas, according to reports from MLS directors. Inventory is down more than 27 percent for the Northwest MLS market overall, and by even larger margins in three counties: Snohomish (down 46.2 percent), King (down 39.4 percent), and Pierce (down 28.6 percent). Brokers say as demand outstrips supply, competition may intensify, especially for homes that are well-priced and in good condition in desirable locations.
…
Talk of a seller’s market has to be tempered, Wilson emphasized, because “when sellers hear these words in the news they instantly think their homes are worth a lot more money….and they are not. Even if our home prices appreciated 2-to-3 percent a year – which they aren’t currently — it will take many years for homes to return to the values that we saw a few years ago,” he suggested.

Despite his cautionary words, Wilson was upbeat. “We continue to see an increase in activity across the board. More people at open houses, more listings coming on the market, more buyers making offers and more multiple offer situations on correctly priced and staged homes.”

Weirdly, this is the most moderatly-toned release I’ve seen from the NWMLS in years, despite this being the first month in years that they actually have something moderately substantive to crow about. So strange.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times: King County home prices rise with fewer houses for sale

“We’re at the beginning of the prime selling season, so to see this sort of strength coming out … this is very good news for the industry,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of research at the University of Washington’s Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies.
…
“The very tight inventory of homes available for sale coupled with the stabilizing prices are probably going to convince some sellers that it’s now safe to come back into the marketplace,” Crellin said.

That doesn’t necessarily mean prices will grow rapidly.

Ding. Thanks to Sanjay for getting in touch with me to get the story on the decline in sales of bank-owned homes.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: House prices rise in King County, surge in Seattle

House prices rose for the first time in a long time in King County last month, while they surged up by double digits in Seattle.
…
Writing on Trulia, real estate broker Kary Krismer threw some cold water on the King County increase.

“(D)on’t get too excited,” he wrote. “Remember the median is affected by mix.”

Lender-owned “REO” homes, which tend to sell for less, made up 22 percent of all house sales in April 2011 but less than 17 percent of sales last month, he wrote. “Fewer REO sales means a higher median, all other things being equal.”

Nice work Kary, getting the story out to the P-I. In other news, has anyone else noticed that the P-I uses the same photo every month on the NWMLS article? Plus it’s a photo of a For Sale by Owner sign, which, if the house sold, wouldn’t even be included in the NWMLS stats.

Michelle Dunlop, Everett Herald: Home prices rise 10% in Snohomish County

Northwest MLS director Meribeth Hutchings, broker and owner of Windermere Real Estate in Lake Stevens, credited favorable interest rates and low inventory for spurring activity.

“The demand for ‘good clean homes’ is extremely high,” she said. “Our primary buyer today is still the first-time homebuyer.”

No particular insight in this month’s Herald article. Mostly just a regurgitation of the press release.

John Gillie, Tacoma News Tribune: Many in state see uptick in median home prices

For the first time in more than four years, the median price of homes sold in Western Washington turned upward in April, a report reveals.

Frank Wilson, managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate in Poulsbo, said sellers should not read too much into the positive news.

“When sellers hear these words in the news, they instantly think their homes are worth a lot of money … and they are not,” he said.

“Even if our home prices appreciated 2 to 3 percent a year — which they aren’t currently — it will take many years for homes to return to the values we saw a few years ago,” Wilson said.

Seriously, what has gotten into these agents? Now that we may finally actually be at the bottom they’re saying everything but calling the bottom. So weird.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Thurston home prices rise for second consecutive month

Thurston County median home prices rose more than 2 percent in April, the second consecutive month of price increases and another sign that the once-struggling housing market may have finally hit bottom.

Year-over-year median prices rose nearly 5 percent in March and climbed another 2.75 percent in April, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Thursday.

As usual, I could only find the blurb, unfortunately.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 05.04.2012)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 05.03.2012)
(Michelle Dunlop, Everett Herald, 05.03.2012)
(John Gillie, Tacoma News Tribune, 05.04.2012)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 05.03.2012)

The post April Reporting Roundup: Tempered Optimism Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It is the West Coast’s most successful condominium high-rise community with established market values.

In light of the “established market values” comment, I find it interesting to note (hat tip to WestSideBilly) that Unit 3802, the second-largest unit on the 38th floor (the tower’s top level), sold on Friday for $3.6 million.

That would be an “established market value” 27% below where it sold just three years ago in May 2009, for just shy of a cool $5.0 million.

The previous buyer only financed $2.5 million at purchase, followed by another $500k loan a few months later, so that entire $1.4 million loss is on them.

• $1,362,820 loss on the sale
• $386,778 in interest payments
• $180,000 agent fees (assuming 2.5% commission)
• $92,831 in property taxes
• $60,660 in HOA dues
• Total Cost for 3 years: $2,083,089

$57,864 a month has got to be the most expensive rental in town, hands down.

[Update: Oops, I originally forgot to include the interest payments on the $3 million in loans. We’ll assume that they were short term ARMs with rates 1.1 points below the 30-year average. I have now added the total interest payments to the above accounting.]

The post Top Floor Unit at 1521 Sells for 27% Off 2009 Price appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up, the NWMLS press release: “Buyer Ready” Home Shoppers Have Edge as Brokers Report Rise in Multiple Offers.

“Buyers are screaming for more inventory and they’re being more aggressive with presenting offers on homes,” reported MLS director George Moorhead, branch manager at Bentley Properties in Bothell. Home shoppers perceive the bottom is nearing, he noted, “and both buyers and sellers want to catch the historically low interest rates.”

That makes no sense at all. Why would sellers care more about “catching the historically low interest rates” than they would about getting a good price for their home? Obviously, they don’t really care about rates, otherwise we would be seeing a lot more listings on the market than we are.

FRENZY! by Flickr user Don DeBold

“Close to the job centers, 45 percent of new listings are selling within a single month. We are seeing a frenzied market in the Puget Sound region, especially in the more affordable and mid-price ranges, with an increase in sales activity in the high end,” remarked J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “Because of the shortage of homes for sale, combined with the sales surge being driven by job growth and historically low interest rates, if you are not ‘buyer ready’ you may not get a house in today’s market,” he added.

FRENZY!

Diedre Haines, another Northwest MLS director, said pending sales in Snohomish County, which jumped 21 percent, would have been “considerably greater were it not for the buyer competition due to the magnitude of multiple offer situations.” She said they are seeing the return of price escalator forms, pre- inspections, set dates for sellers to review offers and properties selling above list price, according to Haines, the regional managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Lynnwood. “Prices are not increasing dramatically but those properties that are listed and priced correctly, especially in the $300,000 and below range, are selling within days of coming on market,” she noted.

Hah. I love the “sales were okay, but they would have been even better bit. This lady should run for public office.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: King County home prices highest since September

“I think in some places prices are recovering, but it’s very neighborhood-specific,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of research at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington. “Those markets that are close to the job centers are by and large doing pretty well.”

Prices in Seattle were up more than 3 percent from a year ago and nearly 9 percent from February. Neighborhoods north of Interstate 90 all saw double-digit year-over-year increases.

Sweet, it’s the North of I-90 magic!

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Seattle house prices up again

Sales actually fell 2.1 percent in Seattle from a year earlier, while rising 10.5 percent countywide. Pending sales, which don’t all close but can be the best indicator of recent activity, were up 15.4 percent in the city and 26.9 percent in the county.

But, with few new homes hitting the market, supply fell to 2.8 months worth of homes for sale at the current pace in Seattle and 3.2 months of supply countywide. That’s down from 4.4 months and 5.6 months, respectively, a year earlier.

Hmm, not much meat in this month’s article. Both of the quotes appear to be lifted straight from the NWMLS press release. Oh well.

Michelle Dunlop, Everett Herald: County home sales up; fewer houses on market

The number of homes for sale in Snohomish County last month was down nearly 44 percent compared to March of 2011, indicating a stabilizing housing market.
…
“The lagging inventory is actually helping prices stabilize, which we hope will have a positive impact on the real estate market as the year progresses,” George Moorhead, branch manager at Bentley Properties in Bothell and director of MLS, said in a statement.

I don’t really see how a dramatic 44 percent drop in inventory can be considered “stabilizing.” I also like how even after everything the market has been through, real estate salespeople are still hard-wired to view declining prices as a bad thing. Lower prices are a good thing. We don’t need prices to “stabilize” to have a “positive” market.

C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune: Pending Pierce County home sales increase

Real estate brokers representing the 21-county region of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service said Friday that the latest monthly housing market figures indicate “a sustainable recovery” is finally afoot.

Bonus points for using the word “afoot” in a professional news article.

C.R. Roberts, The Olympian: Home sales data suggest Pacific Northwest economic revival

Real estate brokers representing the 21-county region of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service said Friday that the latest monthly housing market figures indicate “a sustainable recovery” is finally afoot.

Wait a minute… This is the same article with just a few words and numbers changed. Bonus points withdrawn.

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 04.05.2012)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 04.05.2012)
(Michelle Dunlop, Everett Herald, 04.06.2012)
(C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune, 04.07.2012)
(C.R. Roberts, The Olympian, 04.07.2012)

The post March Reporting Roundup: FRENZY Edition! appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

That’s what happens when you make a big public announcement about intentions to convert to condos, scaring away all your good tenants, then fail to follow through because you stupidly kicked off your plan just as the housing bubble was beginning to deflate.

From Eric Pryne’s write-up over at the Seattle Times:

The buildings’ previous owner, Walton Street Capital, of Chicago, bought them in 2006 for $44 million, and at first pursued a plan to convert Smith Tower to condos.

The housing crisis killed that proposal; meanwhile, office tenants fled the historic tower, which opened in 1914.

It’s now more than 80 percent vacant, according to court records, and monthly rents don’t cover the building’s operating expenses.

Walton Street defaulted on the mortgage last year, and CBRE began pursuing foreclosure shortly after it acquired the debt in September.
…
At CBRE’s request, a King County superior-court judge in December appointed a receiver, Goodman Real Estate, of Seattle, to take over management of the tower.
…
According to Goodman’s latest report to the court, another CBRE affiliate has begun marketing the building to prospective tenants. There’s interest in two complete lower floors and suites on three other floors, the report says.
…
Goodman representatives have told him they expect to have the tower at least 50 percent occupied by the end of the year.

So it sounds like the dream of the Smith Tower Condos is dead.

The post Smith Tower Foreclosed appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It’s a great time to be a seller… if you can afford to sell at today’s prices. And it’s a great time to be a buyer… if you can be really patient and are willing to tolerate being out-bid numerous times if you’re shopping for “move-in ready” homes in a trendy neighborhood.

Mostly it’s a frustrating time to be either buying or selling in today’s market.

As one commenter put it recently:

The “bottom” isn’t looking nearly as fun as it sounded like…

The post Buyer’s Market? Seller’s Market? Neither, Really. appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

If you’re looking for evidence of a real estate comeback, just check out any Sunday open house in Ballard, a popular Seattle neighborhood.
…
This particular house just went on the market last week. It’s a small, two–bedroom, 1927–era home. It’s on a quiet street with neat houses and well–kept lawns. It’s close to parks and a popular elementary school.
…
Jed Kliman is the listing agent. He works for Windermere. He says the home has been completely renovated, and all of the fixtures and appliances are brand new.

My conversations with Deborah about the unusually anti-seasonal decline in inventory provide some statistical context for the Ballard anecdote she found.

Here’s the listing of the home featured in the story: 8021 29th Ave NW

Note that the listing agent counted the entire 1,180 square foot unfinished (and short—look at how close to the ceiling that broom stands) basement, which doubles the MLS-listed square footage of what is in reality a 1,180 square foot, 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home.

That said, the home appears to have the nicest possible finishes that you could reasonably put into a house that size. The whole place practically sparkles in the listing photos. Deborah confirmed to me that it looks just as nice in person.

What is a 2-bed, 1-bath, 1,180 square foot home north of 80th street worth today? Over the last six months or so, the most that any similarly-sized home has sold for in that area is $300,000. On the other hand, there are currently only 10 homes for sale in the 98117 zip code priced $400,000 and under, so “entry-level” inventory in that neighborhood is pretty slim.

And Kliman says it’s priced right: $389,000. And he expects it to go fast. He says there are a lot of people looking to buy homes in Ballard, and very few houses for sale.

…with so few properties on the market, the competition to buy a home is now fierce. Remember that house in Ballard? Well, agent Jed Kliman set a deadline. Offers had to be in the day after the open house.

So how much do you think this little barely-in-Ballard home will end up selling for?

Go ahead and click the photo above and head over to the listing to check out the photos before you make your guess… It’s okay, we’ll wait…

Okay, ready?

Kliman: “So, we have six offers, and there is a seventh being emailed over in the next 10 minutes or so.”
…
Kliman didn’t want to disclose too many details to KUOW, but he was willing to tell us that all six buyers were offering the full price of $389,000, or higher. Two people offered cash, two had already done inspections. Kliman and Therrien spent a couple of hours behind closed doors making phone calls to agents. Then, the deal was done.

Owner Joe Therrien was stunned. He says the bidding war took him entirely by surprise. He didn’t think anyone would offer full price for his house.

“…this is roughly equivalent to winning the lottery for me.”

$400,000-plus for a 2-bedroom, 1-bath house in that location? Seven offers, two all-cash?!? Who are these people? I mean sure, inventory is low, but why would buyers be so desperate that they would pay over $335 per square foot in Loyal Heights? Head over to KUOW’s site to listen to the whole tale and see if you can make any sense of it.

I have to say, the corridor bordered by the ship canal on the south, 85th street on the north, Puget Sound on the west, and Lake Washington on the east is pretty much the last place I’d want to be trying to buy a home right now. For whatever reason, that area seems to have turned into the Twilight Zone of Seattle real estate in 2012.

The post KUOW on Low Inventory and Over-the-Top Anecdotes appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

For some reason, the NWMLS press release still hasn’t been published to its usual space on their public site, so we don’t have the source material to reference this month. Instead, enjoy this chart of King County single-family home prices since 1993, both in raw form and adjusted for inflation using Seattle’s CPI less shelter:

Inflation-adjusted home prices in King County are back to about where they were in early 1999. Nice.

[Update]
A reader emailed me a copy of the NWMLS press release that was sent to them by their friendly neighborhood real estate agent. Here’s an excerpt:

Washington homebuyers realizing “market may have reached bottom of cycle”

With spring on the horizon and consumer confidence on the rise, members of Northwest Multiple Listing Service are reporting positive gains in activity. Pending sales for February increased more than 27 percent from a year ago, more sellers are listing their homes, and brokers are reporting an uptick in multiple offers.

“Buyers are beginning to realize that we may have seen the bottom of this real estate market,” remarked Frank Wilson, branch managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate in Poulsbo and a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors. “Waiting to buy may only result in paying a higher interest rate, having fewer houses to choose from, or finding that sellers do not need to give up as much as they have in the past,” he added.
…
Commenting on the market around Kitsap County, where prices dipped nearly 11 percent, Wilson said he expects prices to “stabilize and even reverse as we move further into 2012.” With 4.3 months of supply in that county, he believes the market is tilting toward sellers. “We continue to see more multiple offer situations on homes that come on the market correctly priced,” he stated.

Most of the rest of the quotes were printed verbatim in the news articles quoted below. I would like to point out that while I actually do think we’re basically at the bottom for prices, scare tactics like the Frank Wilson quote at the end of the second paragraph above are still lame and deserving of mockery.

[End of Update]

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: Shrinking inventory breaks fall in King County home prices

Fewer homes are listed for sale in King County now than at any time since the housing crisis began, and observers say the lack of inventory is starting to influence prices, at least in some neighborhoods.

Don’t get excited — overall, prices are still down.

Countywide, the median single-family sale price hit another postboom low in February — $308,125, down 2 percent from January, 8 percent from February 2011 and nearly 36 percent from the market’s peak in July 2007.

Glenn Crellin, assistant director for research at the University of Washington’s Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies, said he wouldn’t be surprised if the median dips below $300,000.
…
The total number of houses and condos on the market in King County last month was down 32 percent countywide and 38 percent in Seattle from February 2011, according to the listing service.

There haven’t been this few homes listed for sale in any February since 2006.

Again, Eric nails the story.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: House prices rose in Seattle in February

What can one read into Seattle’s increase, seeing as prices were down by 10.1 percent year-over-year in January?

“I think it really is a market that’s trying to figure out exactly where it belongs, what normal looks like,” Crellin said, noting that there’s wide variation in price changes by area in and around Seattle. “It’s very much a neighborhood-specific kind of thing.”

Job growth and historic low interest rates are actually creating a seller’s market through the mid-price ranges and contributing to surging sales near job centers, J. Lennox Scott, CEO and chairman of John L. Scott Real Estate, said in a listing service news release. “It’s a special moment in time in real estate history. We have a backlog of qualified buyers looking for homes to purchase.”

Sales are up, but I think it’s still quite a stretch to say they are “surging” anywhere. And I wonder if Lennox would mind quantifying exactly how “special” this time is “in real estate history.” Is it as special or more special than, say, November 2007, when he declared that “we’re in one of the best markets in the nation here in the Northwest,” and that prices wouldn’t fall? Hmm.

Michelle Dunlop, Everett Herald: Local home sales rise in February

Home sales in Snohomish County continue to outpace last year, though the supply is beginning to dry up, according to a report released Monday.

“The only thing tempering this from being a hot, thriving market are the short sales and foreclosed properties which represent about one-third of the transactions,” said Frank Wilson of Northwest MLS in a statement.

Nearly half of the home sales in the county last year were foreclosures or short sales, according to Washington Property Solutions of Bellevue.

Those dang short sales and foreclosed properties. If only they would just go away we could get back to that hot-hot-hot market of 2005!

Kathleen Cooper, Tacoma News Tribune: Home sales up last month in Pierce and Thurston counties

Successful sales provided a glimmer of hope for the Pierce and Thurston county housing markets in February.

More homes sold in Pierce and Thurston counties last month than the same time a year ago, though sale prices continued their drop.
…
But the median sale price of single-family homes and condos fell 16 percent in Pierce to $169,450. That’s about 40 percent off the peak of $285,000 in August 2007.

Not much meat here in this month’s article.

Kathleen Cooper, The Olympian: County home sales up, but price declines

More homes sold in the two counties last month than the same time a year ago, though sale prices continued their drop.

Closed sales rose 2 percent in Thurston and 30 percent in Pierce, according to data released Monday by the Northwest Multiple Listings Service, which represents 21 counties in Western and Central Washington.

…Thurston’s median sale-price drop wasn’t quite as bad, down almost 3 percent to $211,500.

Not much here, either.

I actually had a nice chat on the phone last month with Rolf Boone, who usually writes the real estate stories for The Olympian. I learned that the reason we mostly see just these short blurb articles online is that the full articles that he writes for some reason are only published in print, and not online. That’s a bummer, because it sounds like he really cares about his work and is trying to really feel out the story, but the fruits of his labor are hidden from me in the digital space.

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 03.05.2012)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 03.05.2012)
(Michelle Dunlop, Everett Herald, 03.05.2012)
(Kathleen Cooper, Tacoma News Tribune, 03.06.2012)
(Kathleen Cooper, The Olympian, 03.06.2012)

The post Reporting Roundup: Party Like It’s 1999 Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

You can watch the entire presentation here, if you’re into that sort of thing. Tom’s got quite a few charts of forecasts that bottom out in 2012 and then ramp up over the next few years. Personally, I think he might be a bit too optimistic about the rate of recovery, but I do agree with him that the worst is most likely behind us.

Hat tip to my coworker Lisa Taylor, who spotted this on King County TV last night. Thanks Lisa!

The post Official King Co. Economic Forecast Cites Seattle Bubble appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Housing market "healing itself," numbers are "astoundingly good"

Declining inventory, extremely low interest rates, and positive job growth are contributing to rising optimism among industry professionals, but Northwest MLS directors say distressed properties continue to be a drag on the market’s recovery.

Bzzt. Got it backwards there, friends. The continuing stream of short sales and foreclosure sales aren’t “a drag on recovery.” They’re how we get recovery. All the bad sales from the bubble need to be cleared out before we can get back to a “normal” market. Period.

The lower number of new listings coming on the market is due to a combination of factors, said J. Lennox Scott, CEO and chairman of John L. Scott Real Estate. Among them, he mentioned underwater sellers (who owe more on their homes than the current value), sellers with equity holding off for higher prices, and the lack of new construction/condominiums.

Sounds like there’s a lot of pent-up supply out there. Plus a bunch of would-be sellers that are priced in forever.

“We are simultaneously seeing the continued rise in pending and closed sales,” Jacobi stated. “Usually pent up demand and rising sales means that prices will be going up. But, unfortunately, that isn’t the case thanks to the high level of distressed properties that continue to drag down the entire market,” he explained.

“Lightning bolt!” by Flickr user Jason Foster

Oops, you said “unfortunately” when I think you meant “thankfully.”

Northwest MLS director Darin Stenvers believes “the perfect storm is brewing.” He said the pent-up need for homes in good condition is creating shorter market times and sales close to the original asking price. “It is a great time for sellers who have been waiting,” said Stenvers, the office managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate in Bellingham.

“The market is almost done with the needed correction,” Stenvers stated, adding, “Distressed homes and REOs are not going away fast but have slowed and should soon level off.” He also foresees a loosening of overly restrictive lending guidelines.

I wonder what exactly Mr. Stenvers believes has been “overly restrictive” about recent lending guidelines. It amazes me that he seems unable to make the obvious connection between all the “distressed homes and REOs” and the fast-and-loose lending that led to this whole mess in the first place.

Anyway, I could go on all day with this ridiculous nonsense from the NWMLS, but I won’t. Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

House prices in King County hit another new post-boom low in January, according to statistics released Monday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
But King County is a big place, and the real-estate market isn’t the same in SeaTac as it is in Sammamish.

A closer look at the statistics reveals significant variations from neighborhood to neighborhood.

As in the past few months, they suggest an increase in “distressed-property” sales — bank-repossessed homes and “short sales” for less than sellers owe lenders — is responsible for much of the countywide price drop.

Those sales accounted for about 40 percent of all closings in King and Snohomish counties last month, according to an analysis by Re/Max Northwest Realtors.

Sales are up most, and prices have fallen farthest, in areas with large numbers of distressed sales.

Low prices = more sales. Go figure.

Countywide, however, distressed-property transactions “continue to drag down the entire market,” said OB Jacobi, Windermere real-estate president.

That won’t change anytime soon, Crellin said: “There’s still a tremendous backlog.”

Homeowners are at least 90 days past due on 76,000 mortgages statewide, he said, but only about 5,000 homes are completing the foreclosure process each quarter.

At that rate, it would take nearly four years to work through the backlog, Crellin said, although he expects the pace of foreclosures will pick up.

And this is why we’ll be at the bottom for quite some time to come.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Low home supply isn’t helping prices

Home sales continued to pick up in King County last month, helping push the inventory of homes for sale to what traditionally would look like a seller’s market. But prices continued to fall, reaching levels last seen in 2004.
…
Local real estate executives have made premature announcements about a market rebound several times during the housing downturn. But the economics blogger Bill McBride, of Calculated Risk, has been more bearish, until now.

“There have been some recent articles arguing the ‘housing bottom is nowhere in sight.’ That isn’t my view,” McBride wrote in a Monday post titled “The Housing Bottom is Here.“

Bold call from Bill at Calculated Risk. I love that Aubrey calls out the local real estate “professionals” for their constant bottom calls since 2008.

Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald: Home sales increase, prices shrink in January

Declining inventory, extremely low interest rates and positive job growth are contributing to rising optimism among industry professionals, but Northwest MLS directors say distressed properties continue to be a drag on the market’s recovery.
…
Year-over-year median prices for single-family homes fell 9.5 percent, from $254,000 to $230,000, the MLS reported. Prices for condos were off 33.4 percent, falling from $186,000 to $123,950. Condo prices in southeast Snohomish County plummeted from a median of $209,500 last January to $72,000 this year.

“Price increases are muted by short sales and foreclosures that are causing low appraisal values,” said J. Lennox Scott, CEO and chairman of John L. Scott Real Estate.

There are price increases out there, you just have to dig deep to find them!

C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune: Pierce and Thurston County home prices drop 12.5 percent

Down: The median price of homes – both residential and condominium – in Pierce and Thurston counties.

Down: The number of homes actively listed for sale.

Down: The number of new listings.

Up: The number of home sales pending.

So much for the first month of 2012.

Okay…

C.R. Roberts, The Olympian: Median home price falls by 4.2% in county

Anderson said the numbers reported Monday are no longer tied to “the artificial stimulus of various tax credits and incentives that date to 2009.”

“The improvement in the numbers show that the market is healing itself and standing on its own.”

If you want to re-read the NWMLS press release, just pick up The Olympian.

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 02.06.2012)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 02.06.2012)
(Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald, 02.07.2012)
(C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune, 02.07.2012)
(C.R. Roberts, The Olympian, 02.07.2012)

The post Reporting Roundup: Healing Perfect Storm Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Senate Bill 6337 was recently introduced in the WA State Legislature regarding short sales.

After a short selling homeowner gets the shortfall deficiency waived, the homeowner receives a 1099 in the mail because debt forgiveness is a taxable event. Some people may have to pay taxes on the deficiency, others may not depending on their circumstances. More about that from the IRS here.

When a bank/lender issues a 1099 for debt forgiveness that means the bank also gets to write off the deficiency as a bad debt which may decrease the amount of taxes the bank/lender owes the IRS. Seems fair.

SB 6337 is asking the WA State Legislature to no longer allow a bank to pursue a homeowner for the deficiency on a short sale once the bank issues a 1099. Okay, still seems fair…

Here’s an excerpt from the Realtor Summary Sheet on the issue:

Key Points:

Provide certainty and consumer protections for short sale sellers is critical in the current real estate market. Successful short sales often prevent foreclosures that would harm consumers, tax revenue and economic recovery.

Okay, hold on a minute. Foreclosures are a natural and necessary part of the market cycle. Not everyone is going to be able to hang on to home ownership.  It’s beyond debate that the high home ownership rates we saw at the top of the bubble were not sustainable.  Foreclosed homes will be sold to investors and other home buyers who can afford home ownership using rational underwriting guidelines instead of the insanity of the bubble days. BTW, here’s what default rates look like for loans originated in 10-11 compared w/the bubble.

There are many foreclosure prevention programs available today, including the new changes to the Home Affordable Modification Program. Many homeowners in foreclosure have been in the system 18 months to 2 years without making a payment.  Yes, their credit score will plunge, but they’re also living rent free for 2 years. Seems to me that this might be a sort-of stealth economic shot in the arm, unless they’re using the money to shoot things into their arm.

Regarding tax revenue, there’s no excise tax paid on a trustee deed v. a short sale which is conveyed using a warranty deed, however, after foreclosure there IS excise tax paid when the foreclosed REO home is sold.

Regarding economic recovery, this particular law is not going to help our economy in WA State recover any faster. The banks are foreclosing slowly so as not to crash the market with REOs.  If we really want an economic recovery to happen faster, let the foreclosures commence. We will hit bottom VERY fast and then everyone will be super busy again. But that ain’t gonna happen and I fail to see how this bill could be tied to an economic recovery in our state.

This legislation will protect short sale sellers from mortgage debt collection actions when the short sale seller was issued a 1099-C Form and thus must pay income tax on the discharged debt.

Wait a minute. If a homeowner HAS assets, what’s the lender’s motivation to approve a short sale without the ability to collect the shortfall either at the close of escrow in the form of a new unsecured note, or in the future? Put yourself in the lender’s shoes just for a minute: If you sold a home and took back the paper/held the note, and now the new home buyer wants to sell short, would you just simply “forgive” the difference out of the goodness of your heart? NO. Not if you have a cold black heart like mine. I’d want the person to prove financial hardship first. I’d run the numbers and if it makes sense to take the write off, well then maybe my heart could be convinced to melt just a little, for, say 5 minutes which is enough time to sign the paperwork. If however, your home buyer had assets, why would you want to waive the short fall? If all banks/lenders just give a blanket hall pass on all short sale deficiency then the masses would suddenly sell short. Oh now I get it. Maybe this would motivate more people to….list their home, which means more real estate commissions. Okay, I’m getting it now. Realtors, I love you, but I’m not convinced this is in the best interest of homeowners. There’s more:

Lenders still have the ability to decide whether to reserve the right to collect mortgage debt owed after a short sale, or whether to issue a 1099-C and claim a deduction for tax purposes.

Oh goodie. I’m sure the bankers will thank us for that small token of appreciation.

Go to the 1 hour 9 minute mark (1:09) of this video to hear the six minutes of dialogue from the bill sponsor and the banker and lender who showed up.

One of the possible consequences if this bill is passed is that if banks/lenders are discouraged from pursuing homeowners (with assets) for the short sale deficiency, then it is entirely possible that
banks/lenders will then decide to just foreclose, which is the opposite outcome that the bill’s sponsors desire.

I’d like to hear/see/touch/feel/taste real examples of homeowners who were pursued for the deficiency and see if these are people who are financially destitute or if these are people with assets.

It looks like WA SB 6337 is a copy/paste of a bill that passed in Oregon last summer. Do we have access to stats from Oregon that could show us what happened to short sales/foreclosures after the law went into effect?

If we are serious about “protecting short sale sellers,” let’s require all homeowners  obtain prepaid legal counsel before the short sale is listed. Attorneys would make sure the final paperwork has no deficiency clause and seller’s legal questions can be answered by someone who is a member of the WA State Bar Assoc.

As it is written, SB 6337 has the potential for increasing foreclosures in WA State, and that might be a good thing, depending on your vantage point. Either way, go forth into the conversations surrounding this bill educated on the possible consequences.

The post A Look at WA SB 6337 “Protecting Short Sale Sellers” appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The Seattle Times Real Estate Section – This sub-page on the Times could definitely use a little layout love, but Eric Pryne et al have been putting out some really quality material lately. You can get an RSS feed of their real estate stories here.

New To Seattle – As the name implies, this site is written by a recent transplant to Seattle, William P. Barrett, who also happens to be a Senior Editor with Forbes. His posts are neither frequent nor regular, but are always an interesting read.

GeekWire – The current project of former Seattle P-I (then Puget Sound Business Journal) tech writers John Cook and Todd Bishop, GeekWire is a great place to get local tech news. It’s like TechCrunch with less noise, less ego, and a fun local touch.

Urbnlivn – Still a fan of Matt’s non-stop work covering the local condo scene. Having started just 8 months after Seattle Bubble, I think he and I have the two longest-running regularly updated local real estate sites.

The SunBreak – In their own words, “The SunBreak is an online magazine of news & culture. It’s a conversation about all the things on Seattle’s mind.” I find the writing to be a refreshing, independent take on Seattle goings-on.

Curbed Seattle – Real estate tabloid. Definitely falls on the “entertaining” end of the spectrum as opposed to the “useful” end, but there’s nothing wrong with entertaining well, which Curbed does.

What are your favorite local sites?

The post The Tim’s Favorite Seattle Blogs & News Sites appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

"Healthy marketplaces" emerging with shrinking inventory, favorable financing
Home sales finished the year much stronger than they started, with pending sales for the fourth quarter outgaining the first quarter by more than 3,000 transactions for a 21 percent increase, according to new figures from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
“All over we are seeing healthy marketplaces emerge as the inventory levels drop,” said J. Lennox Scott, CEO and chairman of John L. Scott Real Estate. “As you get closer to the job centers of Seattle and Bellevue, the marketplace is looking strong again,” he added while expressing optimism for the coming year. “The outlook for 2012 is the continuation of a strengthening marketplace, especially in the more affordable to mid range priced homes.”
…
OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate, believes the market has undergone a shift. “Where we’ve been during the past year is a place of transition. It has been a slow recovery, but the housing market has finally turned a corner, albeit a soft one with some bumps along the way,” he commented.

Despite rising sales, Jacobi, a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors, noted foreclosures and short sales continue to cause downward pressure on prices. “Many would-be sellers are still wary of the market, and as a result, there are fewer homes for sale,” he observed, adding, “At the same time, there are buyers who are eager to strike while the iron is hot, so in some areas, homes are selling before many buyers even have a chance to react.”

Um, no. Most would-be sellers are not “wary of the market.” They’re stuck in their homes. They’ve been “priced in” and simply couldn’t sell even if they wanted to, because they’ve got no equity, can’t afford to take the loss, and aren’t likely to get their lender to approve a short sale.

Here’s a slight variation on the closed sales chart I posted yesterday, to give you an idea what a “healthy marketplace” apparently looks like:

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: King County median home price falls by double digits again

Probably because they’re cheaper, distressed properties also are pushing sales volumes up compared to a year ago: King County single-family home sales were up 0.5 percent, condo sales 20 percent, Snohomish County house sales nearly 21 percent last month.

What’s more, analysts say, competition from short sales and bank-repossessed homes almost certainly is discouraging many prospective sellers from putting their houses on the market: in King County, 25 percent fewer homes were listed for sale last month than in December 2010.

“If people aren’t forced to sell, they’re not [selling],” said land-use economist Matthew Gardner. “They’re willing to wait until they see more signs of stability in the market.”
…
Reports that more homeowners are falling behind on their mortgages suggest the distressed-property pipeline won’t unclog anytime soon, said Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington.

That should keep prices from rising, he said.

Bingo! Not to mention all the pent-up supply Gardner alludes to. Once there’s any sign of stability, sellers will rush the market.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Home sale surge abated in December

A surge that buoyed Seattle-area home sales in the second half of 2011 lost some steam in December, while prices continued to fall, according to a report released Wednesday.

Sales of King County homes rose 4.1 percent from a year earlier — down from a 46.1 percent jump in November and the lowest year-to-year increase since June, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Annual comparisons had been boosted in recent months by the fact that sales were depressed in the second half of 2010, after a homebuyer tax credit expired.

Okay so he says right there in the article that the year-over-year numbers were high only because last year was in the crapper, not because this year was high, but he’s still calling it a “surge” in sales? Huh? Does the chart above look like a “surge” in 2011 sales to you?

I’ve come to expect better than this from Aubrey. This month it feels like he’s just phoning it in.

Michelle Dunlop, Everett Herald: County home sales increase, prices fall

Snohomish County’s housing market closed out the last month of 2011 on the same projection as the past six months: home sales continued to rise while home prices declined.

About 846 single family homes and condos were sold in the county last month, according to a report released Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Sales were up 23.7 percent from the same month in 2010.

However, the median home price fell 9.3 percent to $222,750, down from $245,700 in December 2010.

Most of the rest of the article is just wholesale quotes from the press release.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: As Pierce County home sales rise, prices tumble

The Pierce County housing market ended the year on a sour note as median home prices once again fell by a double-digit margin in the year-over-year December period, according to data released Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

That’s good news for the prospective home buyer in search of a deal, but tough on the home seller trying to sell as values continue to plummet.

Gotta love how they call it a “sour note,” but then go on to admit that it’s good for buyers. Rolf even admits just a few paragraphs later that low prices “have helped to stimulate Pierce County home sales.” Doesn’t sound so sour to me.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Thurston County home sales rise 5% in December

Thurston County home sales rose 5 percent in December, ending the year on an encouraging note after sales were down or flat for most of 2011, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Wednesday.

Although sales eked out an end-of-the-year gain, median prices continued a downward trend, falling 7 percent, the combined single-family-residence and condominium data show.

Wait, falling prices and rising sales are “sour” in Pierce County but “encouraging” in Thurston? Huh? Note that both of these articles were written by the same guy…

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 01.04.2012)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 01.04.2012)
(Michelle Dunlop, Everett Herald, 01.04.2012)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 01.05.2012)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 01.05.2012)

The post December Reporting Roundup: Corner-Turning Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Home sales outpace number of new listings for first time in five years
Last month’s total number of mutually accepted offers was 22.4 percent higher than the same month a year ago. It also marked the first month since December 2006 that the number of pending sales surpassed the number of new listings (6,043), prompting discussions of possible inventory shortages.

“As we head toward the end of the year, it’s certainly good to see a healthy number of buyers relative to the available inventory for sale,” said Mike Grady, president and chief operating officer of Coldwell Banker Bain. “In fact,” he noted, “there are some desirable neighborhoods in urban core areas where the case could be made there are too few homes currently for sale.”
…
“Entering the New Year, the Seattle metro area will start off with a shortage of inventory in both the more affordable and mid-priced ranges,” suggested J. Lennox Scott, CEO and chairman of John L. Scott Real Estate. He noted a high percentage of sellers are receiving offers within the first month or two of listing their homes.
…
For homes and condominiums that sold last month, the median selling price was $225,000, down 10 percent from the year-ago median price of $250,000. Single family home prices were off 8 percent from a year ago ($234,612 versus $255,000), while condo prices slipped more than 17 percent ($169,000 versus $204,500).

Brokers point to distressed properties, which tend to be deeply discounted, as a primary cause of lower prices.
…
“Home prices continue to get dragged down by foreclosures and short sales, which is disappointing given how strong home sales are,” said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “We probably won’t see drastic changes in prices until the banks work through the distressed inventory,” he noted, adding, “but we expect the pace of this process to pick up over the next several months, so hopefully by this time next year we’ll be singing a different tune.”

If we just ignore the inevitable fallout of the massive housing bubble (bank-owned homes and short sales), we can almost pretend as if prices aren’t falling!

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: Prices dive as “distressed” home sales rise in King County

Rising demand — sales — coupled with reduced supply — inventory — ordinarily is a recipe for higher prices, OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate, told an industry gathering last week.

Not this time. Distressed properties are keeping prices down, Jacobi said, and they are unlikely to increase much soon.

“The worry is, what do the banks have in their shadow inventory” of homes in foreclosure that haven’t been put back on the market for resale, he added.

More foreclosures are on the horizon.

The number of Washington homes whose owners were delinquent on their mortgage payments has increased in the past year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

And, at their current pace, it could take banks nearly four years to work through the current statewide inventory of properties whose owners are at least 90 days delinquent on their mortgages, [WCRER Director Glenn] Crellin added.

This would seem to back up what I’ve been saying about the apparent dramatic drop in foreclosures: it’s just the pipeline clogging up due to legilative meddling in Olympia. If that four years number is accurate, it’s a pretty good bet that we won’t see price increases for at least that long, as well.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Home sales up, prices down in November

“Entering the New Year, the Seattle metro area will start off with a shortage of inventory in both the more affordable and mid-priced ranges,” J. Lennox Scott, CEO and chairman of John L. Scott Real Estate, said in the release.

But Crellin rebuffed talk of a shortage, saying that the listing service’s inventory numbers miss many of the lender-owned homes already on the market. He added, “If the inventory gets much shorter we’ll start to see the lending institutions putting more of their product out there.”

Crellin vs. Scott: FIGHT!

Michelle Dunlop, Everett Herald: Home sales increase in Snohomish County; prices fall

“We probably won’t see drastic changes in prices until the banks work through the distressed inventory,” Jacobi said, adding, “but we expect the pace of this process to pick up over the next several months, so hopefully by this time next year we’ll be singing a different tune.”

Brokers are optimistic about the potential benefit a tentative labor agreement between the Boeing Co. and the Machinists union could have on the real estate market. Union members vote Wednesday on a contract that secures future 737 work in Renton and ensures labor peace until September 2016.

With that news, combined with momentum from other major area employers, “we are seeing solid, renewed demand for local housing,” J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, said in a statement.

If you say it often enough, you can make it true.

Kathleen Cooper, Tacoma News Tribune: Home prices still falling in Pierce County

Distressed properties are to blame for the falling prices, brokers said, because they sell at a discount.

“Home prices continue to get dragged down by foreclosures and short sales, which is disappointing given how strong home sales are,” said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate, in a news release. “We probably won’t see drastic changes in prices until the banks work through the distressed inventory.”

It’s unclear how long that will take, and how far prices will fall until then. The MLS, which represents 21 counties in Western and Central Washington, classifies distressed properties as those that are bank-owned, and its data showed that almost 38 percent of the single-family homes that sold in Pierce County last month were in that category.

You can really tell how much care and effort went into this article.

No story on the NWMLS November numbers in The Olympian this month, but they did post this yesterday:
C.R. Roberts, The Olympian: Negative equity on the rise locally

Eighteen percent of homeowners in Olympia and the Thurston County area owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth in the third quarter this year, according to the analytic and business-services company CoreLogic.

That compares with 18.2 percent in the previous quarter. Nationwide, 22.1 percent of mortgaged properties were in negative equity.

“I think it’s certainly a trend that’s going in the wrong direction. It’s probably as much a reflection on the overall economy as anything else,” said Mike Larson, owner-broker at Allen Realtors and president of the Tacoma-Pierce County Association of Realtors.

Statewide, 245,694 mortgages were in negative territory – from a total of 1.42 million mortgages overall in the state. Across the country, 10.7 million mortgages were underwater, from a total of 48.5 million mortgages.

“As long as there’s a reluctance or a hesitation to buy, the values are going to continue to erode. As values erode, the number of people who are upside-down will increase,” Larson said.

If only someone could have foreseen this vicious cycle before prices got so out of control!

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 12.05.2011)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 12.05.2011)
(Michelle Dunlop, Everett Herald, 12.05.2011)
(Kathleen Cooper, Tacoma News Tribune, 12.06.2011)
(C.R. Roberts, The Olympian, 12.05.2011)

The post November Reporting Roundup: Distressed Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Yes, they’re charting different things, and yes, this Sunday’s story isn’t directly about real estate, but the similar visual style coupled with such starkly different tones still struck me as interesting.

The 2006 story: Home prices’ long rise: Is the end near? (Seattle Bubble response)

The 2011 story: The Great Recession’s toll: Tallying the impact in the Northwest

The post What a Difference a Few Years Makes appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

What does this mean for you, the reader?

• Better/faster coverage of relevant stories from the Seattle Times
• More readers, commenters contributing to the conversation here
• Possible future collaborations with Seattle Times & other partners

Note that there is no money changing hands here, nor any sort of ownership change. Seattle Bubble is still a wholly independent operation, written, edited, published, and overseen by yours truly. The News Partner Network is just a way for the Seattle Times and local independent news sites and blogs to mutually benefit from the different resources provided by each.

Here’s the official announcement over at the Seattle Times: Seattle Times announces more local news partners

The post Seattle Bubble Partners with The Seattle Times appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Northwest Multiple Listing Service members reported solid gains in pending sales (up almost 21 percent from a year ago), consistent demand in many price ranges, a shortage of homes in a few categories, and some resurgence of move-up buyers.

Despite those encouraging indicators, prices were down almost 11 percent area-wide compared to a year ago and brokers say there is persistent “hesitancy” in the market.

“fire sale” by Flickr user zimway2k

“All the pieces (for a recovery) exist — low interest rates, lots of choices, increasing loan availability as well as purchasing programs, yet as a whole the housing market has stalled in many places,” said Northwest MLS director Frank Wilson.

“What is holding back the housing market has little to do with houses,” Wilson stated, pointing to uncertainty in the stock market and volatile global economies, along with a more complicated, prolonged transaction process and lack of job creation.
…
Pricing data should be viewed with some misgivings, said Joe Spencer, president and COO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “Headlines stating home values have fallen by double digits compared to last year don’t always reflect what is really happening,” he explained, noting factors that can influence prices.

“Not every home has dropped 15 percent in value,” Spencer insists. He attributes much of the decline to a combination of factors, including shifting demographics and the influence of distressed properties, which he said may be as high as 40 percent in some areas. More investors and first-time buyers are purchasing in the more affordable price ranges, which results in a downward shift of median prices, Spencer explained. Also, he noted, distortions caused by REO (bank- or other lender-owned) and foreclosed properties contribute to price depressions.

“When you adjust for these conditions and compare ‘standard resale homes’ the change in home values is much less drastic,” Spencer emphasizes. He believes a more accurate reflection of price declines for the Seattle area is around 6 percent, citing research by CoreLogic, Wells Fargo Securities and other analysts.

You know it’s bad when even Joe “The Perfect Buyer’s Market” Spencer‘s ultra-massaged data shows price declines of six percent.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: Puzzling plunge: 15% year-over-year drop in county home prices

King County home prices tumbled to a new post-boom low in October, and no one is sure exactly why.

As real-estate insiders offered a host of possible explanations for the drop Thursday, they also debated whether it’s a harbinger of a new, long-term decline — or a one-time statistical blip.
…
Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University, said he expects prices will continue to slip for another year.

“There’s little pressure on buyers to be active, especially with interest rates not expected to rise for some time,” he said. Mortgage rates have been at historic lows — even dipping below 4 percent for a 30-year term — for much of this year.

But Tim Ellis, who writes the real-estate blog Seattlebubble.com, said he’s not making too much of the October numbers.

“One month does not a trend make,” he said. “I’m inclined to take a wait-and-see approach.”

Wait, did I just read that right? Glenn Crellin and I disagree, but he’s the more bearish one? Welcome to bizarro world. Later in the article, Eric gets to what I think is really going on:

Ellis said that while Redfin’s research also shows a big year-over-year drop in the median sales price last month, the price per square foot fell much more modestly.

That suggests “for whatever reason, people bought smaller houses,” he said.

The geographic mix also shifted. Listing-service statistics show King County’s lowest-priced areas — Southwest, Southeast and North King County — saw the biggest increases in sales last month. They also experienced the biggest price drops, and that brought the countywide number down.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: King County’s median home price dips below $300,000

The median sales price of a King County home just dipped below $300,000 for the first time since September 2005.

The median price was $287,500, including houses and condos, in October, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Thursday. That’s down 7.3 percent from September, 17.9 percent from October 2010 and 32.4 percent from a peak of $425,000 in July 2007.
…
Crellin said the drop in the conforming loan limit was a factor, but “maybe a little overstated,” by Jacobi. He saw a bigger role for sales of distressed homes and cash purchases by investors, adding that sellers may accept a lower offer that’s cash, because they know that financing won’t be an issue.

Also, sellers of more-expensive homes are starting to cut their prices, Crellin added. “It’s the combination of all these things hitting at once.”

I think Crellin is spot on here, actually. I seriously doubt that the lower conforming limits were the primary explanation for this one-month drop. The mix of sales is just shifting toward the cheaper homes. It’s so odd—when something is less expensive, more people want it. Who could have guessed.

Mike Benbow, Everett Herald: Home sales increase by 43 percent

Home sales in Snohomish County were solid in October, but prices continued to drop significantly from a year ago, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Thursday.

There were 828 homes sold in the county last month, a 43 percent increase from the same time last year. The county’s percentage increase in sales was the highest for the listing service territory, which covers most of Western Washington.

The strong sales and strong pending sales, which rose 29 percent last month, were a good sign for the housing market. But other indicators showed the local market is anything but healthy.

Median home prices in the county, for example, dropped nearly 15 percent in comparison to October 2010. That sent the combined median home price for single-family homes and condominiums to $221,142, a drop from $260,000 a year ago.

Not much meat in this month’s article from the Herald.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Pierce County home prices continue decline

The median price of a Pierce County home continued its runaway descent in October, falling more than 16 percent in the year-over-year period, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Thursday.

October’s price decline was the sixth consecutive month in which median prices have fallen by at least double digits on a year-over-year basis.
…
Tacoma-Pierce County Association of Realtors President Mike Larson said one reason prices continue to fall is the large number of homes still for sale in the county. More than 5,000 homes were for sale last month, which means a prospective buyer can make a low offer for one house, and if it isn’t accepted, that buyer can just move on to the next house, he said.

Wait, he’s saying that inventory is high? I haven’t looked closely at Pierce County recently, but I highly doubt that inventory there is all that high compared to historic levels.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Thurston home sales rise 7 percent in October

Thurston County home sales finally broke out of an extended rut in October, rising 7 percent last month after several months in which sales were flat, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released today.

Home sales rose 6.99 percent to 245 units from 229 units in October 2010, the combined single-family residence and condominium data show.

Super-short blurb in the Olympian online this month, with a tease to “see Friday’s Olympian” for the real story. Looks like this is all we get online.

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 11.03.2011)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 11.03.2011)
(Mike Benbow, Everett Herald, 11.03.2011)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 11.04.2011)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 11.03.2011)

The post October Reporting Roundup: Fall Fire Sale Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

I’ll let the sign speak for itself, but I will say that I really don’t understand the connection these protesters appear to be making. Other signs at the protest:

• “STOP ROBBIN’ OUR HOODS!”
• “STOP ILLEGAL FORECLOSURES”
• “NO MORE Foreclosures in OUR WA!”
• “BANKERS LIED, ECONOMY DIED”
• “Fund the needy, Not the greedy”
• “BANKS TERRORISTS WORSE THAN AL QAEDA”
• “HOMELAND SECURITY NEEDS TO DEFEND MY HOME”

How are foreclosures equivalent to corporate greed, theft, and terrorism?

The post “Who Is Home Will U Steal Today” appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Unfortunately, it seems that someone in the editing department mis-labled the “Humor” section of the magazine as “Real Estate.” Consider the following excerpts from the article entitled “Buyer’s Market” (which begins on page 77):

San Diego resident Matt Scharkozy is trying to relieve a seven-year itch. After spending that much time renting a home in th Southern California city he has grown to love, the telecommunications salesman and Pennsylvania native decided last summer to take the plunge and buy a condominium.
…
Some might think Scharkozy is taking a risk buying a home in this time of economic uncertainty. But he, and others like him, may accomplish the ultimate goal for many in real estate: buying at or near the bottom of the housing market.

Some real estate experts are predicting that, barring a double-dip recession or an unforeseen crisis in Europe or another part of the world (and, yes, those are big “ifs”), 2012 will be the year housing markets start to heal and home prices not only stabilize but maybe even begin to rise.

Yup, now even airlines are getting into the real estate bottom-calling business. Of course, what do you expect when the magazine has been largely funded by builders of brand new condos and houses? Here are a few of the prominent advertisers found inside:

• Escala (downtown condo)
• Olive8 (downtown condo)
• Fifteen Twenty-One (downtown condo)
• The Sanctuary (Capitol Hill condo conversion)
• Tannerwood (North Bend new homes)
• The Burnsteads (new homes)
• Lindal Cedar Homes (custom home builder)
• Harvard & Highland (Capitol Hill condo)