The good news: This is down from an eye-watering $4,758 in October.
The bad news: This is up dramatically from just a year prior, and 59% higher than what we saw at the peak of the previous housing bubble.

Even if you adjust the July 2007 peak payment for inflation, it only comes out to about $3,586 in 2023 dollars, meaning that the October 2022 peak was 34% higher, and as of February homebuyers are still looking at payments 10% above the highest level recorded before the last housing bubble burst.

I don’t have a lot of commentary to add to this, just to say that this is clearly not sustainable, and in my opinion it’s not mortgage rates that need to come back down, it’s home prices.

The post Homebuyers are taking on monthly payments 59% higher than at the 2007 peak of the previous housing bubble. appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here’s a look at the median home sale price for King County:

As you can see, not only are home prices down year over year (7%), but they’re also down 20% from the May peak, and with another month of flat prices, will be down from 2021 levels, as well. This is great news, of course it is entirely offset by the surge in mortgage rates that had been held artificially low for over a decade back to a more typical level over 6%.

Here’s how the Seattle area stacks up to the rest of the nation, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index:

So far just Seattle and San Francisco are seeing year-over-year declines in home prices according to Case-Shiller. And the declines we’re seeing in Seattle are nothing to sneeze at, either. Have a look at the month-over-month change in Seattle’s HPI:

That drop from nearly a 6% monthly increase in March of last year to a 4% monthly decrease by August is the steepest turnaround we’ve ever seen. Right now the declines are larger than any time since 2011 and 2008.

Regarding those mortgage rates we mentioned earlier, here’s a chart of weekly rates and the Mortgage Banker’s Association Purchase Index, which is a good indicator of early home-buying demand:

Ever since around 2019 there has been a pretty tight inverse correlation between mortgage rates and demand. When rates dropped between 2019 and 2021, demand surged. As rates have climbed through 2022 and into 2023, demand has dropped into the gutter. Personally I don’t see homebuying demand increasing much at all as long as mortgage rates stay above 6%.

Of course, high rates are suppressing listings as well. New listings are at their lowest levels ever:

But since demand is being hit even harder, months of supply is actually creeping up all throughout the Puget Sound region:

For me the bottom line in all of this is affordability. Here’s a look at that chart:

That’s rough. Even with the 20% decline in home prices since last May, surging mortgage rates have kept the affordability index close to the 2007 low. In my opinion, we still have a long way to go in this correction. I don’t know exactly how it’s going to play out, but I don’t think this kind of terrible affordability is sustainable in the long term for Seattle.

If you’re a Seattle Bubble Member, the full data for these charts and more are uploaded to the members-only data repository.

Want to join a conversation about this or other local real estate topics? We’re on Twitter (for now) at @SeattleBubble.

P.S. – For anyone following along at home, I am no longer employed by Redfin. My job was eliminated in the November layoff.

The post Home prices are finally falling around Seattle—more than most places in the nation appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

One of the biggest topics on everybody’s mind lately is home prices, so let’s start there. The median price of single-family homes sold in King County in February was $857,750, up 14% from a year earlier.

As you can see, prices are down slightly from the all-time high of $871,000 back in July, but over the past few years they have really shot up at a ridiculously fast pace. That said, home affordability here isn’t nearly as awful as you might expect. Remember that an affordability index of 100 means that the median household income is spending 30% of their income on the monthly mortgage payment for the median-priced home. An index below 100 means it would take more than 30% of income, above 100 means it would take less than 30%.

Over the past five years, home prices in King County have shot up around 50%, and incomes are up 38%. Rising incomes weren’t enough to keep the affordability index from nosediving in 2017 and early 2018. However, mortgage rates falling from a recent high of 4.87% in November 2018 to an all-time low of 2.68% in December 2020 pushed the affordability index back up above the “affordable” level of 100… until rates started to shoot back up over the past couple of months, that is.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on this chart as rates are expected to continue to climb throughout 2022.

The other big issue for the housing market right now is supply. I’ll be diving deeper into this topic in the coming weeks, looking at actual homebuilding vs. population, but for now let’s just look at the for-sale market. Here’s our chart of months of supply for single-family homes in King County.

It’s interesting to note that months of supply was creeping up toward a more balanced market in 2018, around the same time that the affordability index was nearing an all-time low. I’m sure this is no coincidence. Right now though, we’ve got close to the lowest supply ever.

Last month held some possibly good news for buyers looking for more choices and less competition, as new listings were higher than they’ve been in February five of the past six years, pending sales were at their lowest point in the past three years, and closed sales hit an 8-year low.

That said, we’re a long way from getting back to anything even remotely resembling “normal” when it comes to how many homes are on the market. End-of-month inventory is still close enough to zero that it’s nearly a rounding error.

So what does it all mean? Well, in short, this market sucks for anyone trying to buy a home right now.

As mentioned earlier, I’m planning to dig deeper into the larger issue of housing supply, and I’m also working on a post with my thoughts on whether we’re currently in “housing bubble 2.0” and what might happen over the next few years.

If you’re a Seattle Bubble Member, the full data for all of these charts and more are uploaded to the members-only data repository.

Want to join a conversation about this or other local real estate topics? We’re on Twitter at @SeattleBubble.

The post So… what the heck is going on with the Seattle housing market? appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Let’s take a look at our stats for the local regions outside of the King/Snohomish core. Here’s your October update to our “Around the Sound” statistics for Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

Things are looking pretty similar all around the Puget Sound region—extremely low supply, high demand, and skyrocketing prices. The one tiny bright spot for buyers is that new listings are higher than they were a year ago in every county.

First up, a summary table:

Median home prices were up in every single county from a year earlier. King County’s 13 percent increase was actually the smallest around the sound, while the largest price gains were in Island County.

Here’s the one sort-of bright spot for buyers: New listings are on the rise, especially in King County.

However, active listings are down dramatically from a year ago in every county. The biggest decline was in Island County (probably no surprise then that prices are up the most there), where listings fell by 60 percent from a year earlier. King County saw the smallest drop, but was still down 38 percent.

Closed sales were up across the board in every single county. The biggest gains were in King and Snohomish Counties, which both saw closed sales increase 36 percent from a year ago. Pierce and Thurston had the smallest gains at 18 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

Months of supply is just absolutely abysmal for buyers everywhere. Every single county less than one month of supply in October.

In summary: It’s still a pretty terrible time to be a home buyer, across the entire Greater Seattle Area.

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

The post Around the Sound: Still a dismal market for buyers everywhere appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

October market data from the NWMLS is available. Here’s what happened last month in the Seattle-area housing market: Home prices and pending sales fell slightly, but closed sales rose to the highest level ever seen during an October—over 3,000 sales. The previous record for closed sales during an October was 2,922 sales in 2003. October this year saw 20% more sales than the highest October level in the last ten years (2,514 in 2016).

Obviously the pandemic and recession is having virtually zero impact on homebuying demand.

I haven’t yet seen a press release from the NWMLS, so let’s just get into the data.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

October 2020	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	2,258	-6.7%	-37.6%
Closed Sales	3,027	+6.3%	+36.0%
SAAS (?)	1.02	-7.0%	-4.7%
Pending Sales	3,007	-9.6%	+16.0%
Months of Supply	0.75	-12.2%	-54.2%
Median Price*	$745,000	-1.1%	+12.9%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory fell 6.7 percent from September to October, and was down 38 percent from last year. We still haven’t hit the all-time low point for the number of homes on the market, and the trend seems to be flatlining somewhat, so we may not hit that point this winter.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

Good news again for new listings, which were up 30 percent from a year ago. This October saw more new listings than any October since 2007.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales rose from September to October, which is not uncommon, but the 6 percent increase was enough to make it the largest October on record for closed sales. Year-over-year closed sales were up 36 percent.

Pending sales fell 10 percent from September to October, and were up 16 percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

Still not a pretty picture for homebuyers, with demand sharply rising and supply still falling. At least the rate of decline in home supply is stabilizing.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Year-over-year home price changes have been in the double digits for three months in a row now, gaining 13% in October.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

October 2019: $660,000
October 2020: $745,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

The post NWMLS: Strongest October ever for closed sales appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As promised last week, here’s an updated look at the “affordable home” price chart.

In this graph I flip the variables in the affordability index calculation around to other sides of the equation to calculate what price home the a family earning the median household income could “afford” to buy at today’s mortgage rates, if they spent 30% of their monthly gross income on their home payment. Don’t forget that this math includes the (giant) assumption that the home buyers are putting 20% down, which would be $148,590 at today’s median price.

The “affordable” home price has shot up from $530,359 in November 2018 to an all-time high of $706,800 as of August. The current “affordable” home price in King County would have a monthly payment of $2,365.

The current gap of $36,150 between the affordable price and the median price is similar to the difference we saw between the two numbers in mid-2005.

If interest rates were at a more reasonable level of 6 percent (which is still quite low by historical standards), the “affordable” home price would be just $493,215—more than $200,000 below where it is today, and nearly $250,000 below the current median price.

Here’s the alternate view on this data, where I flip the numbers around to calculate the household income required to make the median-priced home affordable at today’s mortgage rates, and compare that to actual median household incomes.

As of August, a household would need to earn $99,466 a year to be able to “afford” the median-priced $742,950 home in King County. This is up from the low of $46,450 in February 2012, but down slightly from the May 2018 high of $119,004. The previous cycle high in July 2007 was $99,321. Meanwhile, the actual median household income in King County is estimated to be about $94,500.

If interest rates were 6% (around the pre-bust level), the income necessary to buy a median-priced home would be $142,540—51 percent above the current median income.

The post “Affordable” home price shot up 33% in less than two years appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

August market stats were published by the NWMLS on Friday before the holiday weekend. The King County median price of single-family homes rose over 10 percent year-over-year for the first time since May of 2018. Inventory is way down from a year ago, and pending sales climbed to an all-time record high.

Recession? What recession?

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Would-be homebuyers have more buying power, but also more competition for meager inventory
“In order for buyers to be successful in purchasing a home in today’s climate, they have to do some pretty illogical things,” remarked Wilson, the Kitsap regional manager and branch managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate in Poulsbo. As examples, he listed waiving inspections, paying more than the house is worth, or agreeing to pay the difference in cash between the lower appraised value and the sales price. “These are counterintuitive to what we used to see with a negotiation process,” he lamented.

“The lowest number of homes for sale in more than 20 years combined with the lowest mortgage rates on record are resulting in the perfect storm of frustration for buyers – but they are still out in force,” stated Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. “The few homes that are on the market are being snapped up quickly, and this excess of demand is causing record-high prices for single family homes in the Puget Sound area.” He also noted rising demand for lower density housing in outer suburbs.

I still find it quite amusing that Matthew Gardner is now the Chief Economist at Windermere.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

August 2020	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	2,590	-1.7%	-38.2%
Closed Sales	2,783	+0.7%	+10.0%
SAAS (?)	1.36	-1.2%	+23.2%
Pending Sales	3,537	+3.1%	+34.8%
Months of Supply	0.93	-2.3%	-43.8%
Median Price*	$742,950	+2.1%	+10.9%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory fell 1.7 percent from July to August, and was down 38 percent from last year. We’re not currently at an all-time low for the number of homes on the market, but this winter is shaping up to hit a new low unless something changes dramatically.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

The good news is that new listings were up 35 percent from a year ago, and did not decline nearly as much between July and August as we see in a typical year.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales were basically flat between July and August. Last year over the same period closed sales fell 4 percent. Year-over-year closed sales were up 10 percent.

Pending sales rose 3 percent from July to August, and were up 35 percent year-over-year. No month on record going all the way back through 2000 has seen more pending sales than we saw in August. For Seattle-area homebuyers, the recession is apparently non-existent.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

Not a pretty picture for homebuyers, with demand on the rise and supply falling.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Year-over-year home price changes jumped up to over 10 percent for the first time in over two years.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

August 2019: $670,000
August 2020: $742,950
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article from the Seattle Times: Western Washington home prices hit new record highs

The post NWMLS: Pending sales hit an all-time high in August appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As we’re getting back into the swing of things, let’s check out the housing stats for the recently-completed month of August. Overall it’s the same story we’ve been seeing for quite some time: Sales are up and listings are way down from a year ago. Foreclosures are practically non-existent (which was the case even before the various mortgage forbearance programs went into place).

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

Rapidly decreasing inventory coupled with continued year-over-year gains in sales is still the biggest news in this month’s data. First up, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County fell slightly (-2.2%) between July and August (a year ago they fell further—5.5%—over the same period), but were up 7.6 percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish fell 4.6 percent month-over-month (versus a 3.4 percent decline in the same period last year) but were up 2.3 percent from a year earlier.

Next, let’s look at our inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

The number of homes on the market in King County fell 5.0 percent from July to August. Year-over-year listings were down 40 percent from August 2019. There has been a severe shortage of homes for sale in the Seattle area all year, even before the pandemic began depressing listings.

In Snohomish County inventory fell 16 percent month-over-month, and was down 60 percent from a year earlier.

Hit the jump for the foreclosure charts, which I continue to include for posterity, not because there are any really interesting numbers in them.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were down 72 percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down 83 percent from last year. Last year’s levels were already exceptionally low, but mortgage forbearance has pushed these numbers to as close to zero as they can go.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were down 22 percent from a year ago. Even with as strong as the housing market is, 21 homes were still foreclosed on last month in King County.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post August stats preview: Plenty of demand, still so little supply appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

• Low Tier: < $448,069 (up 0.3%)
• Mid Tier: $448,069 – $670,317
• Hi Tier: > $670,317 (up 0.4%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through June 2020.

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

The low and middle tiers both rose month-over-month in June, but the high tier fell slightly. Over the past year and a half the low tier has definitely been showing the most strength.

Between May and June, the low tier increased 1.1 percent, the middle tier rose 0.7 percent, and the high tier fell 0.1 percent.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through June 2020.

Year-over-year price growth is relatively strong in all three tiers, but not the highest it’s been. So far this year price growth seems to have peaked in April. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of June – Low: +9.1 percent, Med: +6.7 percent, Hi: +5.0 percent.

Lastly, here’s a change-from-peak graph like the one in the national post with all of the Case-Shiller markets, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Current standing is 43.1 percent above the 2007 peak for the low tier, 39.4 percent above for the middle tier, and 39.6 percent above for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2020-08-25)

The post Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Home Prices are Soaring appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Up 0.2 percent May to June
Up 6.5 percent YOY.
Up 41.5 percent from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were up 0.6 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were down 1.3 percent.

Seattle is currently ranked #2 in largest year-over-year price growth, only behind Phoenix at 9.0 percent growth.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Here’s how the month-over-month price changes looked for all twenty markets:

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

There were eight metro areas that hit new all-time highs in April: Los Angeles, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Minneapolis, Charlotte, Portland, and Dallas.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through April.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the 155 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 41.5 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

We saw a pretty strong price spike in 2018, followed by a bit of a decline, but since then prices seem to be back to a pretty typical seasonal pattern of strong gains in the spring and only a slight reduction in the fall and winter.

Here’s the Seattle Times’ story about this month’s numbers: Seattle-area home prices rise faster than nearly every other U.S. city, driven in part by younger homebuyers

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2020-08-25)

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Up 6.5% from 2019 in July appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up: Median prices of single-family homes as of July. In a word: Up.

It’s a bit difficult to really appreciate just how much home prices are rising right now when looking at the raw dollar values, so here’s the year-over-year change for each of our eight counties:

Home prices are increasing double digits in every Puget Sound county except Island and King, where they are still up 7-8% from a year ago. If homebuyers were hoping or expecting that the pandemic would lead to some good home deals, they’re no doubt very disappointed so far.

So why are prices rising so much? Well, this may have something to do with it:

Remember, “months of supply” is the ratio between closed sales and the number of homes on the market at the end of the month. We’re not quite at all-time lows, but every single county did see its lowest July on record for the measure. In other words, there are still plenty of homebuyers out there willing to buy, even in the midst of a global pandemic, and even when home prices are rising so quickly.

Crazy-low mortgage interest rates are probably at least partly to blame, but even that only goes so far to explaining the insanity of the current market. We’ll continue exploring this topic in the weeks and months to come, for sure.

The post The pandemic has sparked a massive seller’s market and big price spikes around Seattle appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.

As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Home Buyers Seeking Affordability Are Expanding Search Outside Greater Seattle Job Centers

Depleted inventory continues to frustrate would-be buyers in Western Washington. Many of these potential homeowners are expanding their search beyond the major job centers in King County, according to market watchers who commented on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
“While August is always a slower time for listings and sales, what is really surprising this year is the decrease in new listings taken, while pending sales increased,” observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.
…
Multiple offers are still commonplace with many buyers walking away disappointed, according to Wilson. “Traffic is strong at open houses and our average market time is still very low for correctly priced homes,” he added.

“The August numbers offered a few interesting nuggets,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “The Seattle area housing market is still coming off the ‘sugar high’ that we saw last summer, but homes sales and prices are stabilizing, which is reassuring to both buyers and sellers.”

Quick note: According to data from Redfin, multiple offers are far from “commonplace” now. In August fewer than 10 percent of offers in the Seattle area faced competition. (Disclosure: Tim works for Redfin.)

However, new listings are indeed way down. Let’s get into the data to quantify the drop.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

August 2019	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	4,194	-4.7%	-10.1%
Closed Sales	2,531	-3.9%	+6.1%
SAAS (?)	1.11	-4.8%	-22.9%
Pending Sales	2,623	-10.1%	+7.9%
Months of Supply	1.66	-0.7%	-15.3%
Median Price*	$670,000	-1.5%	+0.1%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory fell five percent from July to August. During the same period a year ago, inventory rose 12 percent. The 10 percent year-over-year drop in inventory is the biggest decline we’ve seen since January 2018.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were down 10 percent from July to August, and were down 18 percent from a year ago. Only 2011 and 2012 saw fewer new listings in August than we had in 2019.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales fell four percent between July and August, and were up six percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between about 2,400 and 2,800 in August every year since 2013, and this year fell right in the middle of that range at 2,531.

Pending sales fell 10 percent month-over-month but were up eight percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

The good news for buyers with respect to housing supply was short-lived. Supply is back in the red.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Home prices dipped a bit last month, but not by as much as they did this time last year, so we ended up back in the black year-over-year, just barely.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

August 2019: $670,000
August 2018: $669,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: The market’s chilled out, but Seattle home prices still too hot for many first-time buyers

The post NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Where does the time go? Apologies for the radio silence! August was crazy busy, but we’re getting caught up now. Most of the spreadsheets are updated for members, and I’ll be posting some refreshed data and commentary about the current market here this week.

NWMLS stats for August are due any day now, probably later today, but let’s have a look at our “early” view on the August housing market stats for the Seattle area.

The biggest news: Active listings appear to be down considerably from a year ago. This is a big flip from earlier this year, when listings were way up, and definitely not great news for buyers.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

First up, let’s look at our inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

The number of homes on the market in King County fell nine percent from July to August, and year-over-year listings were down 14 percent from August 2018. This is the first year-over-year decline since March 2018.

In Snohomish County inventory fell 12 percent month-over-month, and the year-over-year decline was 20 percent. So much for the “rush to the exits” some people were hoping for. I know a lot of people are expecting / hoping for some sort of new crash, but this decline in listings is a pretty big sign that no such crash is imminent.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County fell 0.6 percent between July and August (a year ago they fell 3.2 percent over the same period), and fell 5.5 percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish fell 2.7 percent month-over-month (in the same period last year they were down 17 percent) and were down 3.4 percent from a year earlier.

Hit the jump for the foreclosure charts.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in both King and Snohomish Counties are still scraping along the bottom with fewer than 100 notices per month. Notices in King were down 11 percent from a year earlier, while Snohomish was up 6 percent, which is a difference of 3 additional notices.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were up 13 percent from a year ago.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post August Stats Preview: Where did the listings go? appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

I promised an updated look at June data for the outlying counties, so let’s have a look at that. Here’s the latest update to our “Around the Sound” statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

First up, a summary table:

King County is the only place where prices are declining, and it also has the largest increase in active listings compared to a year ago. On the flip side, pending sales were up the most in King County, and it had one of the smallest declines in closed sales (sales rose in Skagit though). In most of the other Puget Sound counties, sales are declining, and listings are either falling or not increasing by much, and prices are rising.

Here’s a look at new listings across the region:

New listings fell everywhere but Skagit County in June. Bad news for buyers hoping to find more selection as we head into the summer.

Next up: Active inventory.

Inventory fell in Thurston and Pierce counties, but increased everywhere else. King and Snohomish saw the biggest gains, but both of those were far smaller than the gains we saw late last year and earlier this year.

Here’s the chart of median prices compared to a year ago.

The biggest increase in home prices in June was Skagit, where prices rose 12 percent. Kitsap was close behind with an 11 percent increase. Every other county was in the single digits.

Closed sales were down in every county but Skagit, where they managed an increase of less than one percent.

This graph is the most telling—every county is still a very strong sellers’ market. Most counties are slightly better for buyers than they were a year ago, but we’ve still got a long ways to go before we get even close to what most people would call a “balanced” market (4-6 months of supply).

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

The post Around the Sound: King County alone in price drops and big inventory gains appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Five posts in a single day! This has to be some kind of record.

The NWMLS just updated their June stats, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market. The King County median price of single-family homes was down year-over-year again in June, the fourth month in a row of declines. Inventory was up from a year ago again, but the as we mentioned in the preview post earlier this morning, the rate of increase is rapidly declining from the all-time high set in December. Closed sales were down a bit from a year earlier, while pending sales were up slightly.

The NWMLS hasn’t published their press release yet, so let’s get straight into the numbers.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

June 2019	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	4,625	+2.5%	+24.4%
Closed Sales	2,718	+2.9%	-1.5%
SAAS (?)	1.32	-16.2%	-9.4%
Pending Sales	3,166	-6.6%	+6.3%
Months of Supply	1.70	-0.3%	+26.2%
Median Price*	$695,000	-0.7%	-2.8%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory was up just 2.5 percent from May to June, which is much smaller than the double-digit gains we have seen over the same period during the last three years. June of last year saw a 28 percent month-over-month gain. That said, this month’s inventory level is still the highest we’ve seen at the end of June since 2012. Overall, the supply situation is still a marginally good sign for buyers.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were down 22 percent from May to June, and were down 11 percent from a year ago. That’s a bit concerning for those of us who were hoping to see a continued expansion of supply.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales rose just 3 percent between May and June, and were down 1 percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between about 2,400 and 2,900 in June every year since 2013, and this year fell right in the middle of that range at 2,718.

Pending sales fell 7 percent month-over-month but were up 6 percent year-over-year. At the same time last year, pending sales were down 10 percent month-over-month.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

The good news is that even after the steep drop-off since December, we’re still at a higher point than any other time after mid-2008.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

That’s four months in a row now that we have seen falling prices compared to a year ago. It seems that $700,000 appears to be a bit of a price ceiling right now for King County single-family homes.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

June 2019: $695,000
June 2018: $715,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

So far there’s no story posted yet on the June data from the Seattle Times. I’ll update this post when their story goes up.

Update: Here’s their story, by Paul Roberts: June real-estate numbers tell a now-familiar story: Seattle is losing buyers to Tacoma, other outlying spots

The post NWMLS: Home prices and sales stagnated in June appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

This is the last post in today’s data catch-up marathon. I’ll also update a few more of the spreadsheets for members, and if the NWMLS posts their June data today I’ll try to get that up as well.

For now, let’s have a look at our “early” view on June stats.

In summary: Listings are still up from a year ago, but not by as much as they have been. Sales are down, but only just a bit.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

First up, let’s look at our inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

The number of homes on the market in King County rose less than one percent from May to June, and year-over-year listings are up 22 percent from June 2018. If this were any other year I’d say that was a huge gain, but it’s the smallest year-over-year increase we’ve seen since April 2018.

In Snohomish County inventory fell 4 percent month-over-month, and the year-over-year growth was a measly 3.9 percent. This is the smallest year-over-year inventory increase in Snohomish County since it flipped into the black back in May 2018.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County fell 3.6 percent between May and June (a year ago they rose 3.6 percent over the same period), and fell 6.8 percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish fell 0.5 percent month-over-month (in the same period last year they were up 5.6 percent) and were down 11.8 percent from a year earlier.

Hit the jump for the foreclosure charts.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were down 13 percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down 16 percent from last year. Since the numbers are so low, recent changes can appear large in percentage terms, but we’re talking about changes of just a few dozen month to month and compared to the prior year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were up 52 percent from a year ago.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post Stats Preview: Sales dipped in June as listings increase shrank further appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

• Low Tier: < $399,336 (up 2.0%)
• Mid Tier: $399,336 – $624,393
• Hi Tier: > $624,393 (up 1.6%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through April 2019.

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

All three tiers rose month-over-month in April. The largest increase was in the low tier.

Between March and April, the low tier increased 1.6 percent, the middle tier rose 1.0 percent, and the high tier climbed 1.2 percent.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through April 2019.

Year-over-year price growth is falling in all three tiers, with the high tier having flipped to year-over-year losses as of February. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of April – Low: +4.6 percent, Med: +<0.1 percent, Hi: -1.8 percent.

Lastly, here’s a change-from-peak graph like the one in the national post with all of the Case-Shiller markets, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Current standing is 27.7 percent above the 2007 peak for the low tier, 28.3 percent above for the middle tier, and 31.5 percent above for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2019-06-25)

The post Case-Shiller Tiers: High Tier Price Drops Accelerate appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Up 1.1 percent March to April
Up less than 0.1 percent YOY.
Up 30.9 percent from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were up 2.7 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 13.1 percent.

Seattle has fallen from #1 in year-over-year price growth back in May 2018 all the way down to dead last #20 as of April.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Here’s how the month-over-month price changes looked for all twenty markets:

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

There were eight metro areas that hit new all-time highs in April: Los Angeles, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Minneapolis, Charlotte, Portland, and Dallas.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through April.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the 141 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 30.9 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

It was quite a decline over the winter, but prices bounced back sharply during the spring. Will they continue to rise, or flat-line and drop further this winter? That’s the million-dollar question, isn’t it?

Here’s the Seattle Times’ story about this month’s numbers: Seattle is ‘a notable exception’ for stalled home prices

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2019-06-25)

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle-Area Home Prices Flat in April appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The NWMLS published their May stats today, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market. The King County median price of single-family homes was down year-over-year in May, the third month in a row of declines. Inventory was up from a year ago again, but the as we mentioned in the preview post earlier this week, the rate of increase is rapidly declining from the all-time high set in December. Pending and closed sales are increasing, but only modestly.

The NWMLS hasn’t published their press release yet, so let’s get straight into the numbers.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

May 2019	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	4,511	+26.2%	+54.9%
Closed Sales	2,642	+23.1%	+6.8%
SAAS (?)	1.57	+5.0%	-1.1%
Pending Sales	3,388	+8.3%	+2.3%
Months of Supply	1.71	+2.5%	+45.1%
Median Price*	$700,000	+1.4%	-3.6%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory was up 26 percent from April to May, which is the second-largest May increase on record. May of last year saw a 37 percent month-over-month gain. This month’s inventory level is the highest we’ve seen at the end of May since 2012. Overall, the supply situation is still a good sign for buyers.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were up 29 percent from April to May, and were up six percent from a year ago. It’s the highest number of new listings in the month of May since 2012.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales rose 23 percent between April and May, and were up 7 percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between 2,300 and 2,700 in May every year since 2013, and this year is no exception.

Pending sales rose 8 percent month-over-month and were basically flat year-over-year. At the same time last year, pending sales were up 24 percent month-over-month.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

We knew the huge gains late last year wouldn’t last. Although the rate of increase is falling off fast, we’re still in basically record territory. Very few times have seen year-over-year gains in inventory that were this large.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

That’s three months in a row of falling prices compared to a year ago. Definitely interesting. Perhaps prices around here have finally hit a saturation point?

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

May 2019: $700,000
May 2018: $726,275
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

So far there’s no story posted yet on the May data from the Seattle Times. I’ll update this post when their story goes up.

Side-note: In case you missed it, last month the Seattle Times real estate reporter Mike Rosenberg was suspended from his job for inappropriate behavior. His harassment detailed in that story is very disappointing and frankly, gross. Men should treat all women with respect, all the time. It is really not that hard. It’s especially disappointing to me because I have highly respected his work at the Times for years.

[Update]
Here’s Paul Roberts’ story for the Seattle Times: Seattle housing market stays cool, while Tacoma and suburbs keep up the heat

The post NWMLS: Listings up, sales flat, prices fall in May appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Hey look who it is. That Seattle Bubble guy. He’s not gone after all. Seriously though, everything is fine. Things just got a bit busy.

Let’s have a look at the May stats, shall we?

In summary: Although the market is definitely not as hot as it was a year ago, it’s no longer moving strongly in a direction favorable to buyers. Sales are basically flat and the growth in inventory is slowing. I had hoped the market would soften more, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen this year.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

First up, let’s look at our inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

The number of homes on the market in King County rose 15 percent from April to May, and year-over-year listings are up 41 percent from May 2018. That’s a good gain, but the smallest one since May 2018. Here’s what the year-over-year trend looks like for King County listings since January 2017:

In Snohomish County inventory rose 30 percent month-over-month, and the year-over-year growth was up 39 percent. It’s a similar story in Snohomish, with the smallest gain since August.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County rose 15 percent between April and May (a year ago they rose 12 percent over the same period), and were flat year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish rose 8 percent month-over-month (in the same period last year they were up 15 percent) and were down 6 percent from a year earlier.

Hit the jump for the foreclosure charts.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were up 36 percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down four percent from last year. Since the numbers are so low, recent changes can appear large in percentage terms, but we’re talking about changes of just a few dozen month to month and compared to the prior year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were up 52 percent from a year ago.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post May Stats Preview: Not Dead Yet Edition! appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It’s been a few months since we had a look at the stats in the broader Puget Sound area, so let’s update our charts through March. Here’s the latest update to our “Around the Sound” statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

First up, a summary table:

King County still has some of the most dramatic changes, as the only county with a drop in the median price and by far the biggest increase in active listings. That said, active listings are up and closed sales are down across the board. Skagit, Kitsap, Pierce, and Thurston all still saw double-digit year-over-year declines in sales.

Here’s a look at new listings across the region:

New listings were up the most in Kitsap County, which saw 15 percent more listing than a year earlier. Listings were also up in King, Snohomish, and Skagit, but fell in Pierce, Island, and Whatcom.

Next up: Active inventory.

Inventory was up everywhere, but only just barely in Thurston, which saw an increase of less than one percent from a year earlier. Island was the second-smallest gain at eight percent. Every other county saw at least double-digit increases in inventory from March 2018.

Here’s the chart of median prices compared to a year ago.

Prices were up everywhere but King County, with the biggest gains in Thurston County, up eight percent.

Closed sales fell in every county, but only just barely in Snohomish. King and Whatcom counties were down five percent and Island fell seven percent. Every other county saw double-digit decreases in closed sales.

Every county is still deep in sellers’ market territory, but at least they’re all improving from a year ago.

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

The post Around the Sound: Inventory up, sales down across the board appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The NWMLS published their March stats today, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market. The King County median price of single-family homes was down year-over-year in March, falling more than it has since March of 2012. Inventory was up from a year ago again, but the increase was the smallest in the last five months. Pending sales recovered from the February snow storm dip, but were only up five percent.

The NWMLS press release hasn’t been published yet, so let’s get right to the numbers.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

March 2019	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	3,277	+15.0%	+94.3%
Closed Sales	1,784	+25.9%	-5.3%
SAAS (?)	1.67	+56.0%	+12.0%
Pending Sales	2,847	+59.1%	+5.1%
Months of Supply	1.84	-8.7%	+105.0%
Median Price*	$667,725	+1.9%	-3.2%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory was up 15 percent from February to March, quite a bit smaller than the 24 percent month-over-month gain over the same period a year earlier.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings surged from February to March, and were up six percent from a year ago. Seeing a year-over-year increase in new listings is definitely encouraging for buyers.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales rose 26 percent between February and March, but were down five percent from last year. This is probably due to the pending sales dip last month thanks to the snow storm.

Pending sales shot up 59 month-over-month and five percent year-over-year. At the same time last year, pending sales were up 43 percent month-over-month and flat year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

That rate of growth is falling off almost as quickly as it shot up, but we’re still basically in record high territory.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

The last time median home prices were down this much year-over-year was in March of 2012—basically the bottom for home prices.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

March 2019: $667,725
March 2018: $689,950
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: Relief for Seattle-area condo buyers as prices drop amid flood of new units

The post NWMLS: Prices down, listings way up, sales flat from a year ago appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Let’s take a look at our early March housing stats.

Overall the market is still moving in a direction favorable to buyers, but more slowly than it was late last year. By March of this year inventory is already at levels that it didn’t hit until May or June last year. Meanwhile, sales are still down from a year earlier. Foreclosures are still not really an issue at all right now.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

First up, let’s look at our inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

The number of homes on the market in King County climbed 18 percent from February to March, and year-over-year listings are up 99 percent from March 2018.

In Snohomish County inventory rose 7 percent month-over-month, and the year-over-year growth was up 81 percent. Both counties were seeing much larger year-over-year increases in inventory in December and January.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County rose 19 percent between February and March (a year ago they rose 31 percent over the same period), and were down 18 percent year-over-year.

Keep in mind that sales that closed in March mostly went pending in February, which is when we had the giant snow storm. So it’s not surprising to see weak closed sales for March.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish rose 13 percent month-over-month (in the same period last year they were up 33 percent) and were down 14 percent from a year earlier.

Hit the jump for the foreclosure charts.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were up two percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were up 14 percent from last year. Since the numbers are so low, recent changes can appear large in percentage terms, but we’re talking about changes of just a few dozen month to month and compared to the prior year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were up 35 percent from a year ago.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post March Stats Preview: Inventory still up big, but gains slow even as home sales slip appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Down 0.3 percent December to January
Up 4.1 percent YOY.
Up 26.7 percent from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were up 0.7 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 12.8 percent.

Seattle’s streak of dead last for month-over-month price changes lasted five months between July and November, and has since climbed slightly to #13 of 20 in the mont-over-month charts.

Seattle has fallen from #1 in year-over-year price growth back in May all the way down to #11 as of January, falling below the overall national rate.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Here’s how the month-over-month price changes looked for all twenty markets:

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

There were two metro areas that hit new all-time highs in January: Charlotte and Dallas.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through January.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the 138 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 26.7 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

This is by far the biggest decline in prices that we’ve seen since the previous bubble burst. Will it continue into 2019? I personally doubt it, but we’ll see.

Here’s the Seattle Times’ story about this month’s numbers: Seattle-area home price cool-down stands out among U.S. cities

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2019-03-26)

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle home price gains below average in January appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

I’ve gotten way behind recently as life and other projects have gotten busy, and I apologize.

Let’s play some catchup and take a look at February market stats from the NWMLS. The King County median price of single-family homes was basically flat year-over-year in February, inventory was way up from a year ago but not by as much as it has been, and pending sales slipped thanks to the nasty weather.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Heavy Snowfall Ices February Housing Activity Around Western Washington
Seattle’s snowiest month in 50 years had an obvious chilling effect on February’s housing activity, agreed officials with Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Statistics for last month show pending sales dropped nearly 14 percent compared to the same month a year ago.

“The winter weather brought the market to a halt,” stated John Deely, principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain. He said last month’s series of snowstorms and frigid temperatures had a negative impact on the typical momentum that builds at the beginning of the year.

For once the used home salespeople actually have a good excuse. The once-a-decade snow storm in February definitely caused an unusual decline in the pending sales numbers. That will probably carry forward to March closed sales numbers.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

February 2019	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	2,850	+1.1%	+109.7%
Closed Sales	1,417	+15.8%	+1.0%
SAAS (?)	1.07	-8.5%	-6.5%
Pending Sales	1,790	-6.0%	-5.5%
Months of Supply	2.01	-12.7%	+107.6%
Median Price*	$655,000	+7.4%	+0.8%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory was basically flat January to February, but thanks to the big gains in 2018 it was up 110 percent from last year. Sales seem to be starting to bounce back so I’m not sure we’ll see another year of big inventory gains in 2019. I hope we do.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings fell between January and February, and was down six percent from a year ago. I imagine that might be due to the snow storm as well. Hopefully we see the typical big spike in the March numbers.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales rose 16 percent between January and February, and turned in their first year-over-year gain since April 2018.

Pending sales fell six percent month-over-month and five percent year-over-year, but again that was probably mostly due to the two-week snow storm.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

It looks like the peak growth in inventory might be behind us now.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

I did say last month that “I doubt we’ll see this continue to fall.” And sure enough, it ticked back into the black in February.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

February 2019: $655,000
February 2018: $649,950
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: Market turnaround? King County home prices take biggest one-month jump ever

And here’s another good recent article from the Seattle Times that’s worth a read: With King County home prices picking up, are we in for another brutal spring for buyers? Maybe not

The post NWMLS: Home prices back in black, snow storm freezes out pending sales appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

January market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. The King County median price of single-family homes fell year-over-year for the first time since March of 2012. Inventory is way up from a year ago, but pending sales started increasing year-over-year, so buyers may be coming back.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Homebuyers resuming search amid improving inventory, attractive terms
Home buyers around Washington state are making their way back to the market, hoping to take advantage of improving inventory, attractive interest rates, and more approachable sellers, according to officials with Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, said buyers “came out of the woodwork” after the holidays, eager to take advantage of better housing conditions. “Areas close to the job centers are seeing improved affordability from spring 2018,” he said, attributing it to lower interest rates, strong job growth, and adjusted pricing.

I’m not a professional used-house salesman like Lennox, but to me it seems like not a great idea to compare your clients to insects crawling out of the walls in a dilapidated home. But hey, you do you Lennox.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

January 2019	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	2,820	-0.6%	+126.9%
Closed Sales	1,224	-28.2%	-2.8%
SAAS (?)	1.17	+24.9%	+16.1%
Pending Sales	1,904	+38.8%	+9.0%
Months of Supply	2.30	+38.3%	+133.4%
Median Price*	$610,000	-4.5%	-2.9%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory fell half a percent from December to January, but was up 127 percent from last year. The last time there were over 2,750 homes on the market at the end of January was in 2014.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were up 13 percent from a year ago, and more than doubled from December to January.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales fell 28 percent between December and January. Last year over the same period closed sales dropped 40 percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down just three percent.

Pending sales shot up 39 percent from December to January, and were up nine percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

Still a huge year-over-year increase in listings, but the growth did fall off a bit from December to January.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Year-over-year home price changes dropped below zero for the first time in nearly seven years. I doubt we’ll see this continue to fall, but… maybe?

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

January 2019: $610,000
January 2018: $628,388
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article from the Seattle Times: Seattle-area home prices drop to lowest point in two years — down $116,000 since last spring

The post NWMLS: Home prices are falling and inventory is soaring, but pending sales are bouncing back appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Let’s take a look at our early January housing stats. Better late than never, right?

Overall the story is still improving for buyers. Inventory in January was comparable to April or May of last year, a huge increase. Sales were down from a year ago, and foreclosures are still nearly non-existent.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

First up, let’s look at our inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

The number of homes on the market in King County dropped 13 percent from December to January, but year-over-year listings are still up quite a bit, gaining 99 percent from January 2018.

In Snohomish County inventory fell 7 percent month-over-month, and the year-over-year growth was up 108 percent.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County fell 23 percent between December and January (a year ago they fell 30 percent over the same period), and were down 14 percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish fell 22 percent month-over-month (the same drop as the same period last year) and were down 19 percent from a year earlier.

Hit the jump for the foreclosure charts.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were down 16 percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were up 33 percent from last year. Since the numbers are so low, these increases appear large in percentage terms, but the increase represents just 18 additional foreclosures in Snohomish county compared to the prior year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were down 30 percent from a year ago.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post January Stats Preview: Inventory starts off 2019 with a three-month head start over 2018 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

December market stats have been published by the NWMLS this afternoon. Year-over-year home price gains dropped to their lowest level since March 2012 as inventory skyrocketed, despite the fewest new listings ever in a month. The end of 2018 definitely set up 2019 to be an interesting year in the housing market.

The NWMLS press release hasn’t come out yet, so let’s get right to the data.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

December 2018	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	2,838	-29.4%	+143.0%
Closed Sales	1,704	-5.9%	-18.6%
SAAS (?)	0.94	-15.1%	+9.1%
Pending Sales	1,372	-28.8%	-6.0%
Months of Supply	1.67	-25.0%	+198.6%
Median Price*	$639,000	-0.8%	+0.6%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory fell 29 percent from November to December, and was up 143 percent from last year. This is the highest level of December inventory since 2013.

On the flip side, here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were down 11 percent from a year ago, falling to their lowest level ever for any month of the year. It’s definitely interesting that standing inventory is increasing so quickly despite to few new listings hitting the market.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales fell six percent between November and December. Last year over the same period closed sales also dropped six percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down 19 percent and were at their lowest December level of the past seven years.

Pending sales were down 29 percent from November to December, and were down six percent year-over-year. The last time there were fewer pending sales in a December than there were last month was in December 2008.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

The continuing massive surge in active inventory has forced me to adjust the y-axis on this chart. Again. We’ve hit new all-time records each of the last five months.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Year-over-year home price changes edged down again from November to December, to the lowest level since March 2012, which was the last month that prices were falling year-over-year.

Finally, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

November 2018: $639,000
November 2017: $635,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

So far there’s no story on the December data in the Seattle Times yet. I’ll update this post later after they publish their story.

Update: Here’s the Seattle Times story: Seattle area’s topsy-turvy home market ends 2018 with Eastside prices falling over the year

The post NWMLS: Home price gains vanish as sales continue to slip appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Now that 2018 is completely over, let’s take our first look at the December housing market stats for King and Snohomish counties.

It’s pretty much the same story we’ve seen the past few months, which is good news for buyers: The number of home sales is falling and the number of homes on the market is climbing quite a bit. Foreclosures are still very rare.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

First up, let’s look at our inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

The number of homes on the market in King County dropped 29 percent from November to December. Year-over-year listings are still soaring, up 143 percent from December 2017, another new all-time high year-over-year gain, passing the record of 114 percent that was set just a month earlier.

In Snohomish County inventory fell month-over-month 25 percent, and the year-over-year growth also hit a new all-time record, growing 111 percent.

Note that the Estately inventory data feed seems to be having some trouble, so these preliminary numbers may be off by more than usual. I’m looking into that.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County fell 5 percent between November and December (a year ago they fell 4 percent over the same period), and were down 22 percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish fell 5 percent month-over-month (versus a 1 percent decline in the same period last year) and were down 18 percent from a year earlier.

Hit the jump for the foreclosure charts.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were up 12 percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were up 23 percent from last year. Since the numbers are so low, these increases appear large in percentage terms, but the increase represents just 10 additional foreclosures in each county compared to the prior year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were up 13 percent from a year ago.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post December Stats Preview: Highest December listings since 2013 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

November market stats were published by the NWMLS this morning. Home prices slipped to their lowest level since January, and inventory is declining seasonally but hit its highest November level since 2011. Both pending and closed sales continued to slip from last year as well. November’s year-over-year listing growth was an all-time record at a whopping 114 percent.

The NWMLS press release hasn’t come out yet, so let’s get right to the data.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

November 2018	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	4,020	-17.5%	+113.9%
Closed Sales	1,811	-11.7%	-18.6%
SAAS (?)	1.10	-14.5%	+26.3%
Pending Sales	1,926	-16.1%	-13.0%
Months of Supply	2.22	-6.5%	+162.7%
Median Price*	$643,913	-4.0%	+2.1%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory fell 18 percent from October to November, and was up 114 percent from last year. We went from the all-time lowest November inventory a year ago to a seven-year high in 2018.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were up three percent from a year ago and continued the usual seasonal decline month-over-month.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales fell 12 percent between October and November. Last year over the same period closed sales dropped nine percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down 19 percent.

Pending sales were down 16 percent from October to November, and were down 13 percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

The massive surge in active inventory has forced me to adjust the y-axis on this chart. We’ve hit new all-time records each of the last four months.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Year-over-year home price changes edged down again from October to November, to its lowest level since August 2014.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

November 2018: $643,913
November 2017: $630,750
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

The Seattle Times hasn’t published their story yet. I’ll update this post when they do.

Update: Here’s the story from the Seattle Times: Seattle-area home prices drop again, with 6-month decline among largest ever

And here’s the NWMLS press release: Home buyers have “window of opportunity” with shift to more balanced market

The post NWMLS: Home listing inventory skyrocketed in November as sales and prices both fell further appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

With November in the books, let’s have a look at all of our early indicators for the month.

It’s pretty much the same story as last month: Home sales volume was down considerably from a year ago and the number of homes on the market is up dramatically, nearly doubling from a year ago. Foreclosures are still very rare, although the number of notices did tick up a bit month-over-month.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

First up, let’s look at our inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

The number of homes on the market in King County dropped 19 percent from October to November. Year-over-year listings are soaring, and up 111 percent from November 2017, another new all-time high year-over-year gain, easily besting the record of 86 percent that was set just a month earlier.

In Snohomish County inventory fell month-over-month 15 percent, and the year-over-year growth also hit a new all-time record, growing 87 percent.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County fell 15 percent between October and November (a year ago they fell 8 percent over the same period), and were down 22 percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish fell 10 percent month-over-month (versus a 14 percent decline in the same period last year) and were down 15 percent from a year earlier.

Hit the jump for the foreclosure charts.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were up 27 percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were up 8 percent from last year. Since the numbers are so low, these increases appear large in percentage terms, but in King County the increase represents just 20 additional foreclosures.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were down 52 percent from a year ago, to the lowest level since October 2003.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post November Stats Preview: Double the inventory, double the fun appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Down 1.3 percent August to September
Up 8.4 percent YOY.
Up 30.2 percent from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were down 0.3 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 12.9 percent.

Seattle’s streak of dead last for month-over-month price changes increased to three months in September. Quite a flip from the four-month streak at #1 earlier in the year.

Seattle is still at #3 in year-over-year price growth, but falling fast. Two metro areas had higher price growth from a year earlier in September: Las Vegas at 13.5 percent and San Francisco at 9.9 percent.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Here’s how the month-over-month price changes looked for all twenty markets:

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Just three metro areas hit new all-time highs in September (down from 11 in July and 6 in August): Atlanta, Charlotte, and Cleveland. Those are definitely not the typically “hot” markets.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through September.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the 134 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 30.2 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

The latest few data points in this chart definitely look quite a bit different than recent years’ seasonal flattening. To be honest it looks a lot more like it did in late 2007…

Here’s the Seattle Times’ story about this month’s numbers: Metro Seattle home prices falling at fastest rate in U.S.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-11-27)

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle is #1! …for month-over-month price declines appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

October market stats were published by the NWMLS today. Home prices were basically flat from September, and inventory dropped a bit but was up dramatically from 2017. Sales continued to slip from last year as well. September’s year-over-year listing growth was an all-time record at 68 percent, but October’s 86 percent blew that out of the water.

The NWMLS hasn’t published their press release yet so let’s just get right to the data.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

October 2018	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	4,873	-6.5%	+86.1%
Closed Sales	2,052	+11.9%	-15.9%
SAAS (?)	1.29	-25.5%	+24.8%
Pending Sales	2,295	+2.3%	-16.8%
Months of Supply	2.37	-16.5%	+121.3%
Median Price*	$670,999	+0.4%	+6.5%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory fell seven percent from September to October, and was up 86 percent from last year. Before this year, the highest year-over-year inventory gain was 61.3 percent way back in February 2008. The number of homes on the market was at its highest October level since 2011.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were up five percent from a year ago, but began the usual seasonal decline month-over-month.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales rose 12 percent between September and October. Last year over the same period closed sales dropped three percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down 16 percent.

Pending sales were up two percent from September to October, and were down 17 percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

For the last few months we’ve been charting new territory in year-over-year inventory growth.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Year-over-year home price changes edged down from September to October.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

October 2018: $670,999
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

The Seattle Times hasn’t posted their story yet. I’ll probably update this post when they do.

The post NWMLS: Inventory up big from 2017, sales slip appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Now that October is behind us, let’s have a look at all of our early indicators for the month.

Home sales volume was down considerably from a year ago in both King and Snohomish County last month, dipping over 16 percent in both counties. Meanwhile, the number of homes on the market began the usual seasonal declines, but were still up 83 percent in King County and 63 percent in Snohomish. Foreclosures are still very rare, although the number of notices did tick up a bit month-over-month.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

Rapidly increasing inventory coupled with continued year-over-year drops in sales is still the biggest news in this month’s data. First up, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County rose 14 percent between September and October (a year ago they were basically flat over the same period), but were still down 16 percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish inched up three percent month-over-month (versus a 2 percent decline in the same period last year) but were still down 19 percent from a year earlier.

Next, let’s look at our inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

The number of homes on the market in King County fell eight percent from September to October. Year-over-year listings were up a whopping 83 percent from October 2017, which is easily a new all-time high year-over-year gain, crushing the record of 68 percent that was set just one month prior in September.

In Snohomish County inventory fell month-over-month seven percent, but the year-over-year growth also hit a new all-time record at 63 percent.

Hit the jump for the foreclosure charts.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were down 2 percent from a year ago but Snohomish County foreclosure notices were up 34 percent from last year. I wouldn’t read much into that increase though, since we’re talking about a jump from 50 notices last year to 67 this year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were down 61 percent from a year ago, to the lowest level since October 2003.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post October Stats Preview: Inventory nearly doubles from 2017 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Down 1.6 percent July to August
Up 9.6 percent YOY.
Up 31.9 percent from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were down 0.3 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 13.2 percent.

After falling to dead last in month-over-month price changes in July, Seattle continued its streak at #20 in August. This follows a four-month streak at #1 earlier in the year.

Seattle is still near the top in year-over-year price growth though. Two metro areas had higher price growth from a year earlier in August: Las Vegas at 13.9 percent and San Francisco at 10.6 percent. However, if the current trend continues for a few more months, Seattle won’t be near the top for long…

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Here’s how the month-over-month price changes looked for all twenty markets:

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Six metro areas hit new all-time highs in August (down from 11 in July): Los Angeles, Atlanta, Boston, Minneapolis, Charlotte, and Cleveland.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through August.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the 133 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 31.9 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Here’s the Seattle Times’ story about this month’s numbers: Average Seattle-area home selling for below list price for first time in 4 years

That headline seems to have been inspired by something I tweeted yesterday morning (with data from the Redfin Data Center):

?One of these things?
?is not like the others,?
?One of these things?
?just doesn't belong.? pic.twitter.com/i4q537vxQe

— Seattle Bubble (@SeattleBubble) October 29, 2018

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-10-30)

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle home prices fell more than anywhere else between July and August. appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

We haven’t taken a look at my “Residential Real Estate Heat Index” for King County single-family homes and condos since the fourth quarter 2017 data, so let’s see how it has moved through 2018 so far.

Wow, that’s quite the reversal this year from the recent trend. After hitting a massive all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2017, just three quarters later the index has fallen to its lowest point since the first quarter of 2012. Coincidentally, the first quarter of 2012 was when home prices in the Seattle area hit their lowest post-bubble point.

This measure is typically highly seasonal, peaking in the fourth quarter most years due to the low number of listings. However, after dropping down to earth in the first quarter, the heat index usually stays fairly stable through the first three quarters of the year. Not so this year. The first quarter was down slightly year-over-year, then the second quarter hit a three-year low, and the third quarter was the lowest level in over six years.

I still don’t think this decline portends another big bursting bubble anything like what we saw 2008 through 2012, since the foundation of the market is much stronger than it was ten years ago. That said, it is definitely becoming very difficult to ignore the dramatic signs of the slowing market here in the Seattle area.

Next year is going to be very interesting.

The post Real Estate Heat Index plummets in 2018—now at lowest level in over six years appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

With September’s stats in hand, let’s look at broader Puget Sound area. Here’s the latest update to our “Around the Sound” statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

First up, a summary table:

The biggest gains in new listings and active inventory are still in King County. Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap and Thurston all also saw some decent gains in inventory, but in Island, Skagit, and Whatcom inventory was flat or still down. Meanwhile, closed sales are falling everywhere but Whatcom.

Here’s a look at new listings across the region:

Only King, Snohomish, and Thurston saw year-over-year gains in new listings, while Pierce, Kitsap, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom all continued to fall.

Next up: Active inventory.

Inventory was up sizeably from year earlier in King, Snohomish, and Thurston. It also edged up in Pierce and Kitsap. Meanwhile, inventory in Whatcom county has been down double-digits for the past five months in a row.

Here’s the chart of median prices compared to a year ago. Island County actually saw a slight decrease in prices, but they were still up everywhere else.

Sales are now significantly declining pretty much everywhere but the furthest-out counties. Skagit saw just a 3.9 percent drop and Whatcom saw a 5.4 percent gain, but every other county had double-digit declines.

We’re still in a major sellers’ market… but the trend looks at least somewhat hopeful for buyers, with every county except Whatcom inching closer to that magical “balanced market” number of six months of supply.

In summary: The inventory surge has spread outside of King County, as sales slow and listings pile up. The one notable exception to this trend so far is up north in Whatcom County. I’m not sure exactly what’s going on up there, but for some reason the market up there is not cooling down this year the way it is pretty much everywhere else.

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

The post Around the Sound: Inventory growth, sales declines spread outside of King County appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

I’m still not yet comfortable saying that we’re going to see year-over-year price drops soon, but looking at the trend in this data I wouldn’t be surprised if we do before the end of 2018.

The post Home prices fell more between May and September this year than any previous year appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

September market stats were published by the NWMLS today. Home prices have leveled off as sales continue to slip and inventory piles up. Year-over-year listing growth hit its highest level ever as the number of homes on the market reached its highest level since January 2012.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Balance “finally returning” to housing market as buyers welcome more choices, moderating prices
Housing inventory continued to improve during September while the pace of sales slowed in many counties served by Northwest Multiple Listing Service. “Balance is finally returning to the market, and with it, slowing home price growth,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate.
…
J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, encouraged would-be buyers to “put extra focus on October,” which he described as the last great month for new listings until March 2019. “Over the winter, new monthly resale listings will lower by approximately 50 percent compared to summer months.” He also noted interest rates, currently in the upper 4 percent, are projected to rise in the coming months.
…
Despite slower sales, Northwest MLS spokespeople remain upbeat.

“The housing market close to the job centers has gone from a historic extreme-frenzy market in the spring down a few levels of hotness to a strong level of pending sales activity for new listings,” said Scott.

When is J. Lennox Scott ever not “upbeat” about the prospects for the housing market?

Trick question! The answer is never!

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

September 2018	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	5,213	+11.7%	+67.9%
Closed Sales	1,833	-23.1%	-27.0%
SAAS (?)	1.73	+20.5%	+47.9%
Pending Sales	2,244	-7.7%	-18.0%
Months of Supply	2.84	+45.3%	+130.2%
Median Price*	$668,000	-0.1%	+6.9%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory rose twelve percent from August to September, and was up 67.9 percent from last year. Before this year, the highest year-over-year inventory gain was 61.3 percent way back in February 2008. The last time there were over 5,000 homes on the market at the end of September was in 2012.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were up eight percent from a year ago, and edged up slightly from August to September, which is fairly typical for this time of year.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales fell 23 percent between August and September. Last year over the same period closed sales dropped 10 percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down 27 percent—the largest drop since November 2010.

Pending sales were down eight percent from August to September, and were down 18 percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

We’re now in totally uncharted territory for listings. We’ve never seen them growing this quickly year-over-year.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Year-over-year home price changes edged up from August to September, only because last year prices fell in September but this year they were basically flat, as you can see in the next chart.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

September 2018: $668,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

The post NWMLS: Inventory continues to climb as sales slow appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Home sales volume was at its lowest September level in six years for both King and Snohomish County last month, dipping over 22 percent from a year ago. As a result, the number of homes on the market hit its highest point since early 2012. Foreclosures are still at all-time lows.

Now that September is wrapped up, let’s have a look at all of our early indicators for the month.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

Rapidly declining sales is the biggest thing that jumps out to me in this month’s data, so let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County fell twenty-four percent between August and September (a year ago they fell fourteen percent over the same period), and were down twenty-seven percent year-over-year. That’s the largest year-over-year drop since May 2009—just eight months after the financial collapse kicked off in September 2008.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish dropped nineteen percent month-over-month (versus a drop of thirteen percent in the same period last year) and were down twenty-two percent from a year earlier.

Next, let’s look at our inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

The number of homes on the market in King County rose nine percent from August to September. Year-over-year listings were up 64.6 percent from September 2017, which is down just a bit from the all-time high year-over-year gain of 65.5 percent that was set just a month earlier in August.

In Snohomish County the month-over-month inventory increase was smaller at six percent, but the year-over-year growth was still sizable at 35 percent.

Hit the jump for the foreclosure charts.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were down twenty-six percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down thirty percent from last year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were down forty-nine percent from a year ago. The only time there have been fewer trustee deeds than we’ve seen during 2018 was in late 2003.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post September Stats Preview: Sales drop over 25 percent from 2017 as listings continue to pile up appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

• Low Tier: < $410,654 (up 0.5%)
• Mid Tier: $410,654 – $660,032
• Hi Tier: > $660,032 (up 0.05%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through July 2018.

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Only the low tier was up month-over-month once more in July. The middle tier and high tier both fell.

Between June and July, the low tier increased 0.6 percent, the middle tier fell 0.1 percent, and the high tier dropped 0.2 percent.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through July 2018.

Year-over-year price growth was down compared to June in all three tiers, but they were all still in double-digit territory. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of July – Low: +16.0 percent, Med: +11.9 percent, Hi: +10.6 percent.

Lastly, here’s a change-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday for the various Case-Shiller markets, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Current standing is 28.3 percent above the 2007 peak for the low tier, 31.8 percent above for the middle tier, and 34.7 percent above for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-09-25)

The post Case-Shiller Tiers: Low tier home prices edged up in July as mid and high tiers slipped appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Down less than 0.1 percent June to July
Up 12.1 percent YOY.
Up 34.7 percent from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were up 0.7 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 13.5 percent.

Each month from February through May, Seattle had the biggest month-over-month gains of all twenty Case-Shiller markets. In June the rank fell to #8, and in July it dropped all the way to the bottom at #20. However, Seattle still has the second-highest year-over-year price growth. The only metro area with higher price growth from a year earlier in July was Las Vegas at 13.7 percent.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Here’s how the month-over-month price changes looked for all twenty markets:

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Seattle’s year-over-year price growth is falling. From September 2016 through May 2018 our market had the largest gains, but for the last two months Las Vegas has been on top.

Eleven metro areas hit new all-time highs in July: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Minneapolis, Charlotte, Cleveland, Portland, and Dallas.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through July.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the 132 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 34.7 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Here’s the Seattle Times’ story about this month’s numbers: As Seattle home prices dip, outer reaches of metro area are humming along

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-09-25)

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle was the only market to see price declines between June and July appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As promised yesterday, here’s an updated look at the “affordable home” price chart.

In this graph I flip the variables in the affordability index calculation around to other sides of the equation to calculate what price home the a family earning the median household income could “afford” to buy at today’s mortgage rates, if they spent 30% of their monthly gross income on their home payment. Don’t forget that this math includes the (giant) assumption that the home buyers are putting 20% down, which would be $133,800 at today’s median price.

The “affordable” home price has bounced around between about $550,000 and $590,000 since the beginning of 2017. The current “affordable” home price of $568,758 in King County would have a monthly payment of $2,319.

The current gap of $100,242 between the affordable price and the median price is similar to the difference we saw between the two numbers in March and April of 2006. Just a few months ago in May the difference was a whopping $168,447, which is actually higher than the previous record high of $167,363 that was set in July 2017 (the peak month for prices during the previous bubble). This definitely supports the argument that the current slowdown in sales is due largely to a lack of affordability.

If interest rates were at a more reasonable level of 6 percent (which is still quite low by historical standards), the “affordable” home price would be just $483,485—about $85,000 lower than it is today, and $185,515 below the current median price.

Here’s the alternate view on this data, where I flip the numbers around to calculate the household income required to make the median-priced home affordable at today’s mortgage rates, and compare that to actual median household incomes.

As of August, a household would need to earn $109,108 a year to be able to “afford” the median-priced $669,000 home in King County. This is up from the low of $46,450 in February 2012, but down slightly from the May high of $119,004. The previous cycle high in July 2007 was $99,321. Meanwhile, the actual median household income in King County is estimated to be about $93,000.

If interest rates were 6% (around the pre-bust level), the income necessary to buy a median-priced home would be $128,352—38 percent above the current median income.

The post The difference between affordable and actual home prices hit an all-time record in May appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

By popular request, let’s take a look at our affordability index charts for the counties around Puget Sound.

As of August, the affordability index has bounced up slightly from its May low (which was the lowest point since nearly a decade ago in July 2008), but still sits at the very low level of 85.0.

For context, eighty-six percent of the 306 months on record back through 1993 have had a higher affordability index than what we had in August 2018.

An index level above 100 indicates that the monthly payment on a median-priced home costs less than 30% of the median household income.

I’ve marked where affordability would be if interest rates were at a slightly more sane level of 6 percent—73.0, which is worse than any point outside of the peak bubble years of 2006 and 2007.

If rates went up to a more historically “normal” level of 8 percent (the average rate through the ’90s), the affordability index would be at 59.1—six points below the record low level that was set in July 2007.

The entirety of the bump in the affordability index over the last few months is due to slipping home prices, which peaked in May at $726,275 and have since fallen $57,275 to $669,000. I suspect that the near-record-low levels of affordability may be a big factor in why sales have slowed (and thus inventory has increased) this year.

Meanwhile, while mortgage interest rates did climb late last year and early this year, they have been relatively stable over the last few months.

Here’s a look at the index for Snohomish County and Pierce County since 2000:

The affordability index in Snohomish currently sits at 104.8, while Pierce County is at 115.3. Both down considerably over the last few years, and at levels comparable to late 2008.

You can calculate whether a home purchase scenario is “affordable” using the Affordability Index measure with my simple affordability calculator.

Tomorrow I will post updated versions of my charts of the “affordable” home price and income required to afford the median-priced home. Hit the jump for the affordability index methodology, as well as a bonus chart of the affordability index in the outlying Puget Sound counties.

As a reminder, the affordability index is based on three factors: median single-family home price as reported by the NWMLS, 30-year monthly mortgage rates as reported by the Federal Reserve, and estimated median household income as reported by the Washington State Office of Financial Management.

The historic standard for “affordable” housing is that monthly costs do not exceed 30% of one’s income. Therefore, the formula for the affordability index is as follows:

For a more detailed examination of what the affordability index is and what it isn’t, I invite you to read this 2009 post. Or, to calculate your the affordability of your own specific income and home price scenario, check out my Affordability Calculator.

The post Low affordability may be why sales are stalling out appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

I’ve got a few charts to update you with, but let’s start with a few charts that sum up the state of King County single-family listings, inventory, and pending sales.

After five or six years of the same story month after month—fewer listings, more sales, soaring prices—the market has definitely turned in 2018. Pending sales are now on the decline and inventory is rising rapidly. Let’s see what this looks like in charts.

First up, here’s a chart of new listing absorption. This is a simple look at the ratio of pending sales to new listings. If more homes are going pending in a month than there are being listed, this ratio goes above 100 percent, which is obviously not great for buyers.

As of August, the absorption metric has dropped to 77 percent—on par with where it was in late 2010. This rate was at its all-time highest level just last December at 162 percent. In past years, the absorption rate typically hits its lowest point of the year in June or July and begins climbing in August or September. If the rate doesn’t spike back above 100 between now and December, the market could get really interesting.

Keep in mind that the pre-2008 data is not directly comparable, since in July 2008 the NWMLS changed how they define “pending sale” to include more sales.

Next up: a comparison of total on-market inventory growth through August for each year:

Since last December was the all-time low for on-market inventory it’s not too surprising that this year set the record for the largest percent gain between December and August. Still, that is a huge difference.

Next, here’s a yearly comparison of the total number of new listings just in the month of August:

And here’s a broad look at monthly new listings since January 2000:

Even though on-market inventory is climbing like crazy this year, the number of new listings isn’t hitting new records at all. This means that most of the increase we’re seeing in inventory is from a decrease in pending sales.

Finally, here’s a simple chart that shows the difference between new listings and pending sales. While the first chart in this post is new listings divided by pending sales, this one is new listings minus pending sales:

This year is the first year since 2010 that this measure has been above zero every month between January and August. It seems that we may have finally hit some kind of tipping point in the hot market.

The post New listing absorption softens more as pending sales slip appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

July market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. Before we get into our monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Homebuyers Encouraged,”But Still On Edge” While Sellers Face Reality Check
“Home sellers throughout the Seattle region are experiencing a reality check and the days of multiple offers are days of the past,” was how one director with Northwest Multiple Listing Service summarized the market upon reviewing the statistical report for July.
…
“In Seattle and King County supply is at the highest level since first quarter 2015, which has me thinking about the longevity of seller luxuries like offer review dates, pre-inspections, and escalation clauses,” remarked Robert Wasser, owner of Prospera Real Estate and an officer of the Northwest MLS board of directors. “People are taking notice of the evolving real estate landscape — even my mom tells me she’s noticing more for sale signs!”

“There continues to be better news for buyers,” agreed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain. He noted the inventory in King County has doubled since March from 0.8 months to 1.5 months of supply, but added “While this is significant, we are still well below a balanced market of 4-to-5 months of inventory.”
…
“Seller gridlock has loosened close to the job centers,” stated J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “While we are experiencing record sales activity for the higher end and luxury markets in year 2018, a record number of new listings is coming on the market in these price ranges. This has resulted in more opportunities for home buyers and lower premium pricing from the spring market.”

I have no idea what “seller gridlock” is even supposed to mean. In general though, the agents quoted in this month’s press release are being fairly realistic so far. It will be interesting to see if that keeps up if the market starts to seriously slow down.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

July 2018	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	4,163	+12.0%	+43.7%
Closed Sales	2,577	-6.6%	-5.5%
SAAS (?)	1.40	-4.2%	+9.4%
Pending Sales	2,693	-9.5%	-8.7%
Months of Supply	1.62	+19.8%	+52.0%
Median Price*	$699,000	-2.2%	+6.2%

The biggest news is still the climb in inventory, which is up 256 percent from the all-time low that was set back in December. If the current trend continues (a big “if”), it’s entirely possible that by the end of this year inventory will be at its highest point since 2011.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory rose twelve percent from June to July, and was up forty-four percent from last year. This is the largest year-over-year increase we’ve seen in active listings cine April 2008.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were up three percent from a year ago, but dipped slightly from June to July, which is typical for this time of year.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales fell seven percent between June and July. Last year over the same period closed sales dropped six percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down six percent.

Pending sales were down ten percent from June to July, and were down nine percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

This is the steepest surge in listings that we’ve seen, with the year-over-year numbers surging faster than they did between 2005 and 2008.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Year-over-year home price changes fell to their lowest level since July 2015.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

June or July is usually the high point for prices in a given year, but this year prices peaked in May. Between 2000 and 2017, April to July has seen the median price increase an average of 3.4 percent. This year prices fell 3.6 percent over those same four months.

July 2018: $699,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article from the Seattle Times: More Seattle-area home sellers lower list prices as market cools way down

The post NWMLS: Prices retreat slightly as inventory continues to climb appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The 2018 listings surge continued in July, with on-market single-family inventory hitting its highest level since October 2013.

Here’s the overall summary for July: Sales fell both month-over-month and year-over-year. Listings shot up yet again. Foreclosures are still at all-time lows.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

Since it is still the most interesting thing going on in the market today, let’s start with an update of the inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

The number of homes on the market in King County rose twelve percent from June to July. Year-over-year listings were up 44 percent from July 2017, which is the largest year-over-year listings increase since April 2008.

In Snohomish County the month-over-month inventory increase was smaller at nine percent, and the year-over-year growth was fourteen percent.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County fell eight percent between June and July (a year ago they fell eleven percent over the same period), and were down nine percent year-over-year.

If I’m a hopeful home buyer, I’m definitely encouraged by the trend over the last few months, even if the market is still pretty tight right now. At least things are moving in a more favorable direction.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish dropped nine percent month-over-month (about the same as the same period last year) and were down six percent from a year earlier.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were down twenty-six percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down thirty-eight percent from last year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were down fifty-six percent from a year ago. The only time there have been fewer trustee deeds than we’ve seen over the last few months was late 2003.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post July Stats Preview: The 2018 Listings Surge Continues appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

June market stats were published by the NWMLS last week. Here’s a quick look at the home salesperson spin via their press release:

Brokers seeing “simple economic recipe for a softening housing market”

Home buyers around many parts of Washington state had more choices and less competition during June, prompting some industry leaders to comment on “a feeling of change in the market.”

“Inventory is up and demand has dropped,” reported Robert Wasser, an officer with the board of directors at Northwest Multiple Listing Service. That combination is “a pretty simple economic recipe for a softening market,” he added in commenting on the latest MLS statistics.
…
“Although still a quick response market, with more new listings coming on the market during the summer months, we experienced dispersed buyer energy due to the greater availability and selection,” stated J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.

No need for alarm! It’s just a “simple economic recipe”!

Anyway, let’s look at the actual numbers.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

June 2018	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	3,718	+27.7%	+42.9%
Closed Sales	2,758	+11.5%	-4.6%
SAAS (?)	1.46	-8.5%	+6.8%
Pending Sales	2,977	-10.1%	-12.2%
Months of Supply	1.35	+14.5%	+49.8%
Median Price*	$715,000	-1.6%	+9.5%

The big news in this month’s numbers is yet again the big bump in total on-market inventory. That said, prices look like they’re beginning to soften as well, which is unusual for what is normally the hottest time of year for price gains.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory rose twenty-eight percent from May to June, and was up forty-three percent from last year. We’re definitely forming an interesting trend now. This year has seen listings building up a lot faster than any recent year. Meanwhile, sales are softening, too…

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were up two percent from a year ago, but dipped slightly from the record high level posted in May.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales rose eleven percent between May and June. Last year over the same period closed sales were up about the same. Year-over-year closed sales were down five percent.

Pending sales were down ten percent from May to June, and were down twelve percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

The recent surge in listings is extremely evident in the above chart. June saw the largest year-over-year listings increase since April 2008.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Year-over-year home price movement dipped back below ten percent again.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

It’s interesting to me that we’ve been flat to slightly down since April. That’s a pretty big deviation from normal years. Between 2000 and 2017, April to June has seen an average gain of 3.5 percent. Over the last six years the lowest gain we’ve seen over those months was 4.2 percent. This year prices fell 1.4 percent. Very curious.

May 2018: $715,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article from the Seattle Times: Market shift? Big spike in Seattle-area homes for sale slows price growth

The post NWMLS: Listings surge as sales and prices soften a bit appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last month we noticed a big surge in listings in King County in our preview data for May, and in June it looks like the trend is getting stronger. On-market listings of single-family homes nearly hit their highest point in four years in June, surging 28 percent in a single month.

The overall summary for June is that sales edged up from May, but saw the biggest year-over-year decline since April 2011. Listings shot up and are starting to form a very interesting trend. Foreclosures are still few and far between.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

Since this is still the biggest news, let’s start with an update of the inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

The number of homes on the market in King County shot up twenty-eight percent in June. Last month I was concerned that the surge might be a data collection error, but the NWMLS official numbers confirmed it, and the trend is getting stronger. Year-over-year listings were up 43 percent from June 2017, which is the largest year-over-year listings increase since April 2008.

In Snohomish County the inventory gains were still smaller at fifteen percent, but they are picking up some steam as well.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County increased four percent between May and June (a year ago they rose ten percent over the same period), but were down thirteen percent year-over-year.

It’s still far too early for buyers to throw a party to celebrate the market turning in their favor, but the increasing supply and softening demand we’ve seen in the last few months is definitely encouraging.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish increased six percent month-over-month (vs. a eleven percent increase in the same period last year) and were down six percent from a year earlier.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were down thirty-eight percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down forty-nine percent from last year. Eventually it won’t be possible for these numbers to get lower.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were down sixty-nine percent from a year ago. The only time there have been fewer trustee deeds than we’ve seen over the last few months was August through October of 2003.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post June Stats Preview: Listings surge even higher in June appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to April data that was released last week, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 2.7 percent March to April
Up 13.1 percent year-over-year.
Up 30.8 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 2.6 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 12.9 percent.

Seattle still leads the nation in both year-over-year and month-over-month home price growth. Seattle has had the highest year-over-year price growth since September 2016. The only other metro areas with double-digit price growth from a year earlier in April were Las Vegas at 12.7 percent and San Francisco at 10.9 percent.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes has been at #1 for three months.

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Seattle’s year-over-year price growth is still the highest in the nation. The streak has been alive for twenty months.

Ten metro areas hit new all-time highs in April: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Portland, Dallas, and Seattle.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through April.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the 129 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 30.8 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Here are a couple stories about this month’s numbers:

• Seattle Times: Seattle’s nation-leading streak in home-price increases now tied for 2nd longest on record
• GeekWire: Seattle hits 20 months as the nation’s hottest housing market, but relief for buyers may be on the horizon

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-06-25)

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle’s streak on top continues… appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

We know that inventory is growing in King County, but let’s look at broader Puget Sound area. Now that May is over, let’s update our “Around the Sound” statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

First up, a summary table:

The biggest gains in new listings and active inventory were in King County. Snohomish and Pierce also saw some decent increases, but further out it’s more of a mixed bag, with some counties still seeing declining listings and inventory.

Here’s a look at new listings across the region:

King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, and Thurston all saw year-over-year gains in new listings, while Island, Skagit, and Whatcom continued to fall.

Next up: Active inventory.

Inventory was up sizeably from year earlier in King, Snohomish, and Skagit. It barely increased in Pierce, and barely fell in Thurston. Kitsap, Island, and Whatcom were all down double digits from a year earlier.

Here’s the chart of median prices compared to a year ago. Every county turned in a gain, with only Thurston and Skagit turning in single-digit price gains.

Six of the eight Puget Sound counties saw sales fall compared to a year ago.

We’re still deep in sellers’ market territory, but all three of the central Puget Sound counties saw months of supply increase from a year ago.

Finally, here’s a chart comparing the median price in May to the 2007 peak price in each county. Every Puget Sound has now exceeded the previous peak median price and is charting new territory.

In summary: So far the inventory surge is mainly just happening in King County, but it looks like it might be starting to gain some steam in the other counties. The closer you are to Seattle, the more inventory seems to be increasing.

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

The post Around the Sound: King County sees the biggest gains in listings appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The big increase in listings is the first interesting development we’ve seen in the local real estate market in months, so here are a few alternative takes on recent home listing activity.

First up, here’s a chart of new listing absorption. This is a simple look at the ratio of pending sales to new listings. If more homes are going pending in a month than there are being listed, this ratio goes above 100 percent, which is obviously not great for buyers.

As of May, the absorption metric has dropped to 79 percent—its lowest level since June 2011. Interestingly, the rate was at its all-time highest level just last December at 162 percent. The absorption rate typically hits its lowest point of the year in June or July, so seeing it drop this low this fast is highly unusual.

Keep in mind that the pre-2008 data is not directly comparable, since in July 2008 the NWMLS changed how they define “pending sale” to include more sales.

About a year ago when I first introduced the listing absorption metric, I said:

I suspect that one of the first signs we’ll see of the market softening is when new listing absorption starts to drop, so I’ll be keeping an eye on this.

That’s definitely happening right now, so it will be very interesting to see if this trend continues through the rest of 2018.

Next up: a comparison of total on-market inventory growth through May for each year:

Last December was an all-time low for on-market inventory, so it’s not too surprising that now that inventory is on the rise, this year set the record for the largest percent gain between December and May. Still though, it’s a good sign for buyers that relief may be around the corner.

Next, here’s a yearly comparison of the total number of new listings just in the month of May:

Only five years since 2000 have seen more single-family homes hit the market in May than we saw this year. It would be interesting to see if there are any specific attributes common among many of the homes that are hitting the market now.

Finally, here’s a broad look at monthly new listings since January 2000:

I’m not calling a big turn in the market just yet, but it’s definitely a promising sign. We’ll see how the rest of the year shakes out.

The post New listing absorption falls to a seven-year low appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

May market stats have been published by the NWMLS, but their press release isn’t out yet, so let’s just dive into the numbers.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

May 2018	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	2,912	+37.5%	+35.5%
Closed Sales	2,474	+16.6%	-4.0%
SAAS (?)	1.59	+16.2%	+21.7%
Pending Sales	3,312	+24.1%	-4.1%
Months of Supply	1.18	+17.9%	+41.1%
Median Price*	$726,275	+0.2%	+14.9%

The big news in this month’s numbers is the big bump in both new listings and total on-market inventory. The last time we had more than 4,000 new single-family listings in a single month in King County was July 2007.

If that month sounds familiar it may be because that was also coincidentially (?) the month that home prices peaked in the Seattle area during the previous housing bubble. Hmm…

In my opinion it is still too early to call an inflection point yet, but this surge in listings definitely has my attention.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory rose thirty-seven percent from April to May, and was up thirty-six percent from last year. That’s a non-trivial increase.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were up seventeen percent from a year ago, and hit their highest level in over a decade.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales rose seventeen percent between April and May. Last year over the same period closed sales were up twenty-seven percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down four percent.

Pending sales were up twenty-four percent from April to May, and were also down four percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

That is a huge spike up into the black for the inventory/supply line. For buyers’ sake, I hope the trend continues and isn’t just a one-month flash.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Year-over-year home price movement continues to hover in the fifteen percent range.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

Another new all-time high, just barely.

May 2018: $726,275
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

The Seattle Times hasn’t posted a story yet, when they do I’ll likely update this post.

Update: Here’s the story from the Times: Seattle-area home prices reach record highs, but increasing inventory offers a ray of hope

The post NWMLS: New listings hit highest point since 2007 as inventory finally grows appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Even when I’m not posting here, I am still keeping my spreadsheets up to date and sharing them with those who support my ongoing work as members of Seattle Bubble.

Anyway, I’m back because there’s something definitely interesting in our regular monthly “preview” charts for May. Unless something has really broken in my data collection, it looks like we’re seeing a sudden surge of listings begin to pile up.

Here’s the summary for May: Sales look to be a bit lower than last year, even as the spring bump has begun. Listings are still struggling to make gains. Foreclosures are still nearly non-existent.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

Since this is where the interesting data is, let’s start with an update of the inventory charts, updated with previous month’s inventory data from the NWMLS.

The number of homes on the market in King County shot up thirty-six percent in May. This is the largest increase since May 2008. If this isn’t some kind of data collection error, this is a pretty big spike. It follows a reasonably large increase of twelve percent the month before, so we could finally be seeing the beginning of a trend that points toward an easing market.

In Snohomish County the inventory gains were a lot smaller at just eleven percent, which is the largest increase since October 2014.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County increased twelve percent between April and May (a year ago they rose thirty percent over the same period), but were down seven percent year-over-year—another sign that the market may be softening.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish increased fifteen percent month-over-month (vs. a twenty-three percent increase in the same period last year) and were down one percent from a year earlier.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were down fifty-four percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down thirty-two percent from last year. As low as these foreclosure numbers are, I’m surprised that they continue to drop year-over-year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were down sixty-four percent from a year ago. The only time there have been fewer trustee deeds than we’ve seen over the last few months was August through October of 2003.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post May Stats Preview: Sudden Listings Surge? appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Up 1.7 percent January to February
Up 12.7 percent year-over-year.
Up 23.9 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 1.8 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 12.1 percent.

Seattle leads the nation in both year-over-year and month-over-month home price growth. The only other metro areas with double-digit price growth from a year earlier are Las Vegas at 11.6 percent and San Francisco at 10.1 percent.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes fell off steeply late last year but jumped back to #1 in February.

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Seattle’s year-over-year price growth is still the highest in the nation. The streak has been alive for eighteen months.

Ten metro areas hit new all-time highs in February: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Portland, Dallas, and Seattle. February marks the first time that Los Angeles and San Diego have passed their 2005/2006 high points.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through February.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the 127 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 23.9 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Here’s the story on this month’s numbers from the Seattle Times: Seattle-area home price growth from current boom has surpassed last decade’s bubble

Check back tomorrow for our look at Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-04-24)

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle home prices rising fastest in the nation appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It has been a few months since we looked at the housing stats for the broader Puget Sound area. Now that the first quarter of 2018 is over, let’s update our “Around the Sound” statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

First up, a summary table:

Prices are climbing and listings are down across the board. King County actually had the smallest listings decrease among the Puget Sound counties, and one of the largest drops in sales. Sales also dropped significantly in Kitsap, Island, and Skagit counties.

Here’s the chart of median prices compared to a year ago. Every county turned in a gain, with only Thurston and Whatcom turning in single-digit price gains.

Listings were down significantly from a year earlier everywhere… except King County. Every other county still saw fairly significant year-over-year decreases, with the largest coming in Kitsap.

Seven of the eight Puget Sound counties saw sales fall compared to a year ago. This is the first time that sales fell year-over-year in many counties since April 2011.

Months of supply is low everywhere, but for the first time in a while, some counties actually did see a slight increase in this metric.

Finally, here’s a chart comparing the median price in March to the 2007 peak price in each county. Every Puget Sound has now exceeded the previous peak median price and is charting new territory.

In summary: It’s still a better time than ever to sell a home in the Puget Sound, but there may finally be some tiny cracks beginning to form in the sellers’ market.

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

The post Around the Sound: Sales down in King, Kitsap, Island, and Skagit appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

March market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here’s a quick excerpt from their press release:

Housing Market Back to “Pressure Cooker Situation” But Brokers Remind Sellers “Pricing Is Still Important”

Job growth and a recent run-up in mortgage rates has created an “extremely intense market for each new listing,” stated J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate in commenting on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“What used to be a quick action market for buyers is now, once again, an instant response market, and this has been the case since the first of the year,” remarked Scott, adding “This is especially true in the more affordable and mid-price ranges in all markets, and also pertains to luxury properties close to the job centers.”
…
“We have returned to an extremely intense market for each new listing due to extremely strong job growth and eager buyers who want to purchase before interest rates go higher,” Scott reported. “The housing market is back to a pressure cooker situation and we are witnessing high levels of sales activity intensity for each new listing coming on the market,” he commented.

Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma, commented on the frustration many would-be homebuyers are experiencing. “I think this last quarter especially, many buyers are feeling like they brought a knife to a gunfight, there’s been so much competition to buy a home.”

I’m honestly running out of snarky things to say about Lennox Scott and Dick Beeson’s endless breathless cheerleading.

Now let’s dive into the numbers for March.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

March 2018	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	1,687	+24.1%	-0.9%
Closed Sales	1,883	+34.2%	-9.4%
SAAS (?)	1.49	+30.3%	+17.7%
Pending Sales	2,710	+43.1%	-0.5%
Months of Supply	0.90	-7.5%	+9.4%
Median Price*	$689,950	+6.2%	+15.0%

Despite the big bump up in prices to a new all-time high, there is some good-ish news for home buyers in the March data. Compared to a year ago, new listings are up, total listings were basically flat, and sales were down. The overall market is still definitely heavily skewed toward sellers, but at least last month’s trends are finally moving a little bit in buyers’ favor.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales rose thirty-four percent between February and March. Last year over the same period closed sales were up fifty-four percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down nine percent.

Pending sales were up forty-three percent from February to March, and were down half a percent year-over-year.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory rose twenty-four percent from February to March, and was down just one percent from last year. Although it was a relatively small decrease, it still marks a new historic low point for March inventory.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were up seven percent from a year ago.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

The last few months the trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand on the year-over-year chart is at least a little hopeful for buyers.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Despite the new all-time high for prices, year-over-year price changes were down a bit from their recent high of nearly twenty percent in January.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

New all-time high. Pretty clearly I’ll need to update the axis on this chart very soon.

March 2018: $689,950
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article from the Seattle Times: Home prices have risen fastest in South Seattle, as citywide median nears $820,000

The post NWMLS: Prices surge as sales slip and inventory inches up appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

If sales start falling off, we could see some hope for buyers later in 2018, but right now it’s too early to make a call like that.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County increased thirty-one percent between February and March (a year ago they rose thirty-nine percent over the same period), and were down six percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish increased thirty-three percent month-over-month (vs. a thirty-nine percent increase in the same period last year) and were down five percent from a year earlier.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were down fifty percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down forty-two percent from last year. The monthly number of foreclosures never really historically goes much lower than it has been over the last year or so.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were down seventy-five percent from a year ago. The last time we saw levels like what we’ve seen in the last few months was fifteen years ago.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with previous months’ inventory data from the NWMLS.

Inventory is increasing for spring, up twenty-three percent month-over-month, but is still down two percent year-over-year in King County.

In Snohomish County listings were up fourteen percent month-over-month and down thirteen percent year-over-year.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post March Stats Preview: Sales slip slightly from last March appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

• Low Tier: < $373,070 (up 0.2%)
• Mid Tier: $373,070 – $604,377
• Hi Tier: > $604,377 (up 0.3%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through January 2018.

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

All three tiers are hitting new highs and setting up for another year of crazy gains. I keep hoping at some point we’ll see some sign of a slowdown, but so far… nothing.

Between December and January, the low tier increased 1.1 percent, the middle tier rose 0.5 percent, and the high tier was up 0.7 percent.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through January 2018.

Year-over-year price growth in January is well into double digits for all three tiers. The last time any tier was below 10 percent year-over-year growth was December 2016. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of January – Low: +14.1 percent, Med: +12.1 percent, Hi: +13.0 percent.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted earlier this week for the various Case-Shiller markets, but looking only at the Seattle tiers. All three tiers are well above their previous peak levels.

Current standing is 13.3 percent above the 2007 peak for the low tier, 19.0 percent above the 2007 peak for the middle tier, and 25.1 percent above the 2007 peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-03-27)

The post Case-Shiller Tiers: To. The. Moon. appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Up 0.7 percent December to January
Up 12.9 percent year-over-year.
Up 21.8 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 0.6 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 11.3 percent.

Seattle still leads the nation in year-over-year price growth. The only other metro areas with double-digit price growth from a year earlier are Las Vegas at 11.1 percent and San Francisco at 10.3 percent.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes fell off steeply late last year but in January it surged back to #2.

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Seattle’s year-over-year price growth has now been the highest in the nation for over a year, ever since passing Portland in September 2016.

Seven metro areas hit new all-time highs in January: San Francisco, Denver, Atlanta, Charlotte, Portland, Dallas, and Seattle.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through January.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the 126 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 21.8 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Here are a couple stories about this month’s numbers:

• Seattle Times: Seattle-area home market heats up yet again, leading the country for 17th straight month
• GeekWire: Seattle home price gains lead the nation for 17th month in a row

Check back tomorrow for our look at Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-03-27)

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle kicks off 2018 with surging home prices appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As promised in Monday’s affordability post, here’s an updated look at the “affordable home” price chart.

In this graph I flip the variables in the affordability index calculation around to other sides of the equation to calculate what price home the a family earning the median household income could “afford” to buy at today’s mortgage rates, if they spent 30% of their monthly gross income on their home payment. Don’t forget that this math includes the (giant) assumption that the home buyers putting 20% down, which would be $129,990 at today’s median price.

The “affordable” home price has been declining in recent months as interest rates have climbed. The “affordable” home price of $572,470 in King County would have a monthly payment of $2,274.

The current gap of $77,480 between the affordable price and the median price is on-par with the difference seen in early 2006. We were in the same range early last year as well before declining mortgage rates bumped the affordable home price up, even as the median price declined a bit.

If interest rates were at a more reasonable level of 6 percent (which is still quite low by historical standards), the “affordable” home price would be just $474,203—about $98,000 lower than it is today, and $176,000 below the current median price.

Here’s the alternate view on this data, where I flip the numbers around to calculate the household income required to make the median-priced home affordable at today’s mortgage rates, and compare that to actual median household incomes.

As of February, a household would need to earn $103,292 a year to be able to “afford” the median-priced $649,950 home in King County. This is up from the low of $46,450 in February 2012, and the hignest point ever recorded, even surpassing the previous July 2007 high. Meanwhile, the actual median household income in King County is estimated to be about $91,000.

If interest rates were 6% (around the pre-bust level), the income necessary to buy a median-priced home would be $124,697—37 percent above the current median income.

The post King County median home price now $77k higher than “Affordable” home price appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

If you’re wondering about the lack of posts on these pages recently, the explanation is pretty simple: There just isn’t much to say. The Seattle-area housing market has been in a protracted boom period with ridiculously low inventory of homes for sale and rapidly-climbing prices for years now. In a lot of ways it looks like the housing bubble that was in full swing when I started this blog in 2005, but what’s going on behind the scenes is very different this time around. Is it possible that Seattle really is special this time around and the “bubble” won’t burst this time? … Maybe?

Anyway, I’ve been meaning to update more of the charts of the “fundamentals,” so let’s start with an updated look at our affordability index charts for the counties around Puget Sound.

As of February, the affordability index is at the same level it was in July 2005, just three months before Seattle Bubble was launched.

Median home prices have already started to creep up, and interest rates are climbing, now at their highest levels since early 2014. The affordability index for King County currently sits at 88.1. An index level above 100 indicates that the monthly payment on a median-priced home costs less than 30% of the median household income.

I’ve marked where affordability would be if interest rates were at a slightly more sane level of 6 percent—73.0, which is worse than any point outside of the peak bubble years of 2006 and 2007.

If rates went up to a more historically “normal” level of 8 percent (the average rate through the ’90s), the affordability index would be at 59.6—six points below the record low level in July 2007.

Here’s a look at the index for Snohomish County and Pierce County since 2000:

The affordability index in Snohomish currently sits at 109.1, while Pierce County is at 121.2. Both down considerably over the last few years, and at their lowest points since late 2008.

You can calculate whether a home purchase scenario is “affordable” using the Affordability Index measure with my simple affordability calculator.

Tomorrow or Wednesday I will post updated versions of my charts of the “affordable” home price and income required to afford the median-priced home. Hit the jump for the affordability index methodology, as well as a bonus chart of the affordability index in the outlying Puget Sound counties.

As a reminder, the affordability index is based on three factors: median single-family home price as reported by the NWMLS, 30-year monthly mortgage rates as reported by the Federal Reserve, and estimated median household income as reported by the Washington State Office of Financial Management.

The historic standard for “affordable” housing is that monthly costs do not exceed 30% of one’s income. Therefore, the formula for the affordability index is as follows:

For a more detailed examination of what the affordability index is and what it isn’t, I invite you to read this 2009 post. Or, to calculate your the affordability of your own specific income and home price scenario, check out my Affordability Calculator.

The post Seattle-area affordability set to plunge to 9-year lows in 2018 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

January market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here’s a quick excerpt from their press release:

Home Buyers Still Competing for Sparse Inventory in Western Washington, Driving Up Prices – Especially for Sought-After Condominiums

“The Seattle area real estate market hasn’t skipped a beat with pent-up demand from buyers is stronger than ever,” remarked broker John Deely in reacting to the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. The report on January activity shows a slight year-over-year gain in pending sales, a double-digit increase in prices, and continued shortages of inventory.
…
“The decline in sales last month can’t be blamed on the holidays, weather or football. It’s simply due to the ongoing shortage of housing that continues to plague markets throughout Western Washington,” said OB Jacobi, the president of Windermere Real Estate.

Bummer for home salespeople that they can’t use the “football” excuse they usually throw out in January. Not that there’s really anything in these latest numbers for them to be concerned about.

Now let’s dive into the numbers for January.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

January 2018	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	1,243	+6.4%	-20.8%
Closed Sales	1,259	-39.9%	-20.4%
SAAS (?)	1.01	+17.4%	+26.1%
Pending Sales	1,747	+19.7%	-9.9%
Months of Supply	0.99	+77.0%	-0.5%
Median Price*	$628,388	-1.0%	+19.7%

Inventory is at its lowest January level ever, and new listings were only barely above last year’s record-low level. Despite having nearly the same number of new listings as last year, closed sales and pending sales are both down considerably. Meanwhile, prices are up nearly twenty percent year-over-year.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales fell forty percent between December and January. Last year over the same period closed sales were down twenty-seven percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down twenty percent. That’s a pretty big decline. It will be interesting to see if sales pick up in the next few months or keep dropping.

Pending sales were up twenty percent from December to January, and were down ten percent year-over-year.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory rose six percent from December to January, and was down twenty-one percent from last year. Total on-market listings are the lowest level for any January on record.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were up just 0.3 percent from a year ago—a whopping six more homes hit the market this January compared to January 2017.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

The drop in closed sales is actually pretty sudden and severe in this chart. The last time the year-over-year change in closed sales was anywhere near this low was late 2010.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Year-over-year price changes shot up to their highest level since March 2016, nearly hitting twenty percent again.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

Down slightly from December and currently about $30k below the all-time high hit last July.

January 2018: $628,388
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article from the Seattle Times: King County housing market kicks off 2018 even hotter than before, as Seattle breaks price record

The post NWMLS: Closed sales plummet, listings still scarce appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here’s the summary for January: Yet another new all-time low point for inventory in both counties. Sales were lower than a year earlier, but not dramatically. Foreclosures are still basically zero.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

So far there are no glimmers of hope for buyers as 2018 kicks off.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County decreased thirty percent between December and January (a year ago they fell twenty-three percent over the same period), and were down nine percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish decreased twenty-two percent month-over-month (vs. an eighteen percent decrease in the same period last year) and were down six percent from a year earlier.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were down thirty-two percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down fifty-five percent from last year. The monthly number of foreclosures never really historically goes lower than it is right now.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were down thirty-seven percent from a year ago. The number edged up from December, but is still near historic lows.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with previous months’ inventory data from the NWMLS.

Inventory rose four percent between December and January in King County, but was still down twenty-three percent from a year earlier.

In Snohomish County listings were up seven percent month-over-month and down fifteen percent year-over-year.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post January Stats Preview: 2018 kicks off with the same tight market as 2017 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As a reminder, the “Residential Real Estate Heat Index” is an index that rolls changes in the median price, new listings, total inventory, pending sales and closed sales all into a single number to measure the relative “heat” of the market. Note that this index only looks at the real estate sales market. It does not factor in any other economic conditions such as wages, interest rates, rents, etc.

Below is the latest data for the heat index of King County single-family homes and condos. It has been quite a while since I last updated this chart, and… holy cow.

At 213.9, the latest King County heat index dwarfs the average level seen during the last bubble (42.6). Keeping with the trend we saw during the previous bubble, the condo heat index is even more out of control, coming in at 334.3 in the fourth quarter (more than five times the 61.4 average during the last bubble).

Based on this measure, we have been well into bubble territory since late 2015, and things have gotten seriously out of control since then.

However, as I mentioned earlier, this index doesn’t account for external economic factors at all. The current situation is definitely very different from last time, and we need to look at a more complete picture before we can definitely say this is a new bubble. I’ll be updating some of those broader charts later this month.

Still though… damn.

The post Real Estate Heat Index off the charts in 2017 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It has been quite a while since we looked at the housing stats for the broader Puget Sound area. Now that 2017 is over, let’s update our “Around the Sound” statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

First up, a summary table:

Prices are climbing and listings are declining across the board, but sales were strangely mixed. December closed sales were up from a year earlier in Snohomish, Pierce, and Island counties, while falling everywhere else.

Here’s the chart of median prices compared to a year ago. Every county turned in a gain, with the smallest increases seen in Thurston and Island, and the largest in King and Snohomish.

Listings were down significantly from a year earlier everywhere across the board. The last time any of the Puget Sound counties saw a year-over-year increase in inventory was August and September in Whatcom County. King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, Island, and Skagit have all been in the red for a year or more.

Despite the decrease in listings, closed sales were up ten percent in Snohomish County, and also saw slight increases in Island and Pierce. Sales were down everywhere else, with the largest year-over-year decline seen in Skagit County at -13 percent.

Months of supply is minuscule everywhere. What else is there to say?

Finally, here’s a chart comparing the median price in December to the 2007 peak price in each county. Every Puget Sound county except for Island County has now exceeded the previous peak median price.

In summary: There’s never been a better time to sell a home in the Puget Sound, and arguably there’s never been a worse time to buy.

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

The post Around the Sound: 2017 Puget Sound market wrap-up appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

December market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here’s a quick excerpt from their press release:

“Exceptionally Low” Inventory Slows Year-End Home Sales, Contributes to Steep Price Hikes around Greater Seattle region

“While all year we’ve been bemoaning lack of inventory and escalating prices, the statistics show 2017 was a banner year in many respects for real estate in the Puget Sound region and throughout the Northwest,” stated Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain. He cited year-over-year gains in both prices and values, commenting “As a result of this strong market, homeowners are experiencing bountiful gains in property values.”

Brokers expect momentum to continue despite uncertainty about interest rates and taxes.

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate believes the Central Puget Sound housing market will remain one of the strongest in the nation. “It will be another happy new year for real estate activity.” As the new year unfolds, he expects buyers “will emerge from winter holiday hibernation in big numbers” in part thanks to the Seahawks. “Without the Seahawks in the football playoffs, the 2018 housing market will be more intense earlier in January rather than heating up after the Super Bowl,” Scott remarked.

Scott also anticipates a “frenzied, multiple-offer market” in the more affordable and mid-price ranges, as well as “good-to-strong” sales activity in the luxury market close to the job centers. Positive job growth and attractive interest rates will propel activity, he suggests, adding “In the more affordable and mid-price ranges, the impact of the new federal tax policy is minimal.”

Literally nobody puts off buying a house just because of a few weeks of playoff football. What a stupid thing to suggest. Also, I seriously think Lennox used the word “frenzy” in literally every single monthly NWMLS news release in 2017. He’s having a “frenzy” frenzy.

Now let’s dive into the numbers for December.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

December 2017	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	1,168	-37.8%	-28.7%
Closed Sales	2,094	-5.8%	-2.8%
SAAS (?)	0.86	-1.7%	-10.2%
Pending Sales	1,459	-34.1%	-11.1%
Months of Supply	0.56	-34.0%	-26.7%
Median Price*	$635,000	+0.7%	+15.5%

This is the lowest level on record (going back to 2000) for months of supply. The previous record low was December 2016 at 0.76, and the record low before that was December 2015 at 0.86. Supply and demand have never been as far out of balance in the Seattle area as they are right now.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales fell six percent between November and December. Last year over the same period closed sales were down four percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down three percent, which is an astoundingly small decline given how few listings there have been.

Pending sales were down 34 percent from November to December, and were down eleven percent year-over-year.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory fell 38 percent from November to December, and was down 29 percent from last year. Total on-market listings are at an all-time low.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were also down from a year ago, falling 13 percent.

For the whole of 2017, new listings were down 2.7 percent from the whole of 2016, while pending sales were down 4.0 percent.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

I wish there were some change here but it’s the same story as it has been for a while. Bad news for buyers, great news for sellers.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Year-over-year price changes have been edging up over the last few months, to 15 percent in December.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

Up slightly from November, but still currently $22,000 below the all-time high hit in July.

December 2017: $635,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article from the Seattle Times: Eastside home prices surge to new record; Capitol Hill area hits $1 million median

The post NWMLS: Listings drought intensifies, months of supply hits a new record low in December appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Short story for December: Inventory hit a new all-time low point in both counties. Foreclosures are still basically zero, and sales were surprisingly strong given how low the inventory is.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

Here’s hoping that the market might turn a corner for buyers in 2018.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County decreased four percent between November and December (a year ago they also fell four percent over the same period), and were up less than one percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish decreased one percent month-over-month (vs. a five percent decrease in the same period last year) and were down two percent from a year earlier.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were down 62 percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down 65 percent from last year. The few dozen foreclosure notices going out in each county is as close as the number ever gets to zero.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were down 75 percent from a year ago. Just two dozen homes were foreclosed on in King County last month.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with previous months’ inventory data from the NWMLS.

Inventory fell 37 percent between November and December in King County, and was down 28 percent from a year earlier.

In Snohomish County listings were down 35 percent month-over-month and down 32 percent year-over-year.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post December Stats Preview: For-sale inventory hit an all-time low appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Down 0.1 percent September to October
Up 12.7 percent year-over-year.
Up 20.0 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 0.1 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 10.6 percent.

Seattle still has by far the largest year-over-year price growth, despite falling off just slightly in each of the last three months of data. The only other city with double-digit price growth from a year earlier is Las Vegas at 10.2 percent.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

After a four-month reign on top of the heap between February and May this year, Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes has dropped to near the bottom of the twenty cities—#19 in September and #14 in October.

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Seattle’s year-over-year price growth has now been the highest in the nation for over a year, ever since passing Portland in September 2016.

Four cities hit new all-time highs again in October: San Francisco, Denver, Charlotte, and Dallas.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through October.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the 123 months since the price peak in Seattle prices are up 20.0 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2017-12-26)

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle home prices edged down just barely in October appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

October market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here’s a quick excerpt from their press release:

Key indicators for Western Washington housing still rising, but brokers detect slowdown and uncertainty

Early seasonal snow and questions swirling around the tax plan unveiled last week by House Republicans could make the usual seasonal slowdown more pronounced, say industry leaders from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. For October, however, key indicators trended upwards.
…
“The challenge for buyers actually isn’t lack of choice, it is the rapid pace of sales,” suggested Ken Anderson, president/owner of Coldwell Banker Evergreen Olympic Realty.
…
J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, noted October was the “best ever for sales activity in the Puget Sound region.”
…
Compared to spring months, Scott expects volumes in the next few months will be at 30-to-50 percent of spring totals. “The stage is set once again for a frenzy housing market after the first of the year in the price ranges where there is a shortage of active listings for sale.”

Lennox sure likes that word “frenzy.” He seems to think that it has positive connotations. Personally I think it’s exactly the opposite. People do irrational and stupid things in a frenzy that they usually regret later. Is he saying that’s true of the current housing market? Maybe we actually agree more than I thought…

Now let’s dive into the numbers for October.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

October 2017	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	2,619	-15.6%	-13.4%
Closed Sales	2,441	-2.8%	-2.9%
SAAS (?)	1.03	-11.7%	+14.3%
Pending Sales	2,760	+0.9%	-2.4%
Months of Supply	1.07	-13.2%	-10.8%
Median Price*	$630,000	+0.8%	+14.5%

The only tiny shred of kind-of good news for buyers is that closed sales and pending sales are down slightly from a year ago. Of course, listings are down considerably more than sales, so the market overall is still trending in sellers’ favor.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales fell three percent between September and October. Last year over the same period closed sales were down just a tenth of a percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down three percent.

Pending sales were up one percent from September to October, and were down two percent year-over-year. Year-to-date pending sales are down four percent from 2016. Meanwhile year-to-date closed sales are up one percent. I still don’t know exactly why that’s happening, but my guess would be that fewer pending sales are collapsing this year than last year.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory fell sixteen percent from September to October, and was down about the same amount from last year.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

One tiny bit of good news: new listings were up eleven percent from a year ago.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

Still nothing new here. It seems like it’s been the same story forever: It’s a great time to be a seller and a terrible time to be a buyer.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Year-over-year price changes fell a couple points between September and October and are still sit at a very high level.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

Up slightly from September, but not quite back to the all-time high hit in July.

October 2017: $630,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article from the Seattle Times: Seattle home prices jump nearly 18 percent; West Bellevue median hits $2.6 million

The post NWMLS: Nearly everything about the Seattle-area housing market continued to tilt in sellers’ favor in October appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Up 0.2 percent July to August
Up 13.2 percent year-over-year.
Up 20.4 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 0.4 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 11.3 percent.

Here’s an update of the chart I posted last month showing the year-over-year home price changes in all twenty Case-Shiller cities over the past year and a half:

Seattle still has by far the largest year-over-year price growth, despite falling off just slightly in August.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes dropped #9 in July to #16 in August.

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Seattle’s year-over-year price growth dropped off just a bit from its July post-peak high. Even so, yet again in August, none of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked metro areas gained more year-over-year than Seattle. Not even close.

Seven cities hit new all-time highs again in August: Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Portland, Dallas, and Seattle.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through August.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the 121 months since the price peak in Seattle prices are up 20.4 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Here are a couple stories about this month’s numbers:

• Seattle Times: Seattle marks a full year as America’s hottest housing market, with no end in sight
• GeekWire: Seattle remains nation’s hottest housing market for a full year as home prices rise more than 2x national rate

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2017-10-31)

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Gains Still Strong in August appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

September market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here’s a quick excerpt from their press release:

MLS Brokers Detecting Seasonal Slowdown in Some Areas But Expect Price Hikes to Continue in Much of Washington

“October will be the best month for selection and availability until late February,” proclaimed J. Lennox Scott when commenting on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
“The pressure cooker for the housing market continues as the typical seasonal market comes into play for new listings coming on the market,” stated Scott, the chairman and CEO of John L. Scott. He noted new listings during September and October typically shrink 30 percent – and even more during the winter months – when compared to spring and summer months.
…
Buyers may be emerging on news of slightly improving supply. “For only the second time this year the available inventory was over the one-month mark in King County,” said John Deely. “A notable number of new listings went past their offer review date, and more listings had price reductions.”

The only way that buyers may be “emerging on news of slightly improving supply” is if said buyers are delusional. Supply is not improving. It is still at the lowest level it has ever been for this time of year.

Now let’s dive into the numbers for September.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

September 2017	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	3,104	+10.1%	-16.1%
Closed Sales	2,512	-10.2%	-0.2%
SAAS (?)	1.17	-2.7%	-3.9%
Pending Sales	2,736	-11.0%	-6.3%
Months of Supply	1.24	+22.6%	-15.9%
Median Price*	$625,000	-3.8%	+16.2%

Still no good news for buyers. Listings are scarce, sales are strong, and prices dipped, but no more than they do every year in the second half of the year.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales fell ten percent between August and September. Last year over the same period closed sales also decreased ten percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down less than a percent.

Pending sales fell eleven percent from August to September, and were down six percent year-over-year. It’s rather odd that for 2017 year-to-date, pending sales have been down an average of 3.8 percent from a year earlier, but closed sales have been up an average of 2.8 percent. There’s something strange about that.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory rose ten percent from August to September, but was still down sixteen percent from a year earlier.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were down two percent month-over-month, and down four percent from last year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

Nothing new here unfortunately. As it has been for a few years now, it’s a great time to be a seller and a terrible time to be a buyer.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Year-over-year price changes fell a couple points between August and September but still sit at a very high level.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

Down slightly from August, but still quite close to the all-time high.

September 2017: $625,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here are a few articles about this month’s numbers from local news outlets:

• Seattle Times: What it’s like to buy and sell a house in Seattle’s craziest-ever market
• GeekWire: How hot is Seattle’s real estate market? This boarded up house with no bedrooms is $595K
• Everett Herald: Housing market still hot in county despite signs of seasonal slowdown

The post NWMLS: Seattle housing market still giving the finger to buyers appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

Sadly I have nothing particularly new or interesting to share about what happened in the market in September. It’s more of the same cruddy market for buyers: Listings are scarce and sales are still strong.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County decreased fourteen percent between August and September (a year ago they fell eleven percent over the same period), and were down five percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish decreased thirteen percent month-over-month (vs. a seven percent decrease in the same period last year) and were down two percent from August.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Foreclosure notices in King County were down 34 percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down 49 percent from last year. Both counties are still basically at their historic low levels for foreclosures.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds were down 42 percent from a year ago.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with previous months’ inventory data from the NWMLS.

Inventory rose nine percent between August and September in King County, but was still down 17 percent from a year earlier.

In Snohomish County listings were down just barely month-over-month and down 14 percent year-over-year.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post September Stats Preview: The Last Gasp of Inventory in 2017 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Up 0.6 percent June to July
Up 13.5 percent year-over-year.
Up 20.2 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 0.6 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 11.2 percent.

To get a sense of just how nuts it is here in Seattle compared to pretty much everywhere else, consider this chart of year-over-year home price changes in all twenty Case-Shiller cities over the past year and a half:

Seattle is not only the city with the highest year-over-year home price growth (by a wide margin) but it has also seen by far the strongest growth in year-over-year home price changes in recent months. Since December, eight cities have seen declining year-over-year home price growth, another eight cities have seen an increase of less than a percentage point, three more have increased between one and two percentage points. In Seattle it increased 2.7 points.

How do you spell unsustainable? S-E-A-T-T-L-E.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes did fall off a bit in July, down from #2 in June to #9 in July.

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Seattle’s year-over-year price growth hit another new post-peak high. The highest level since October 2006. Yet again in July, none of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked metro areas gained more year-over-year than Seattle. Not even close.

The same eight cities as last month hit new all-time highs again in July: San Francisco, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Portland, Dallas, and Seattle.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through July.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the 120 months since the price peak in Seattle prices are up 20.2 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Here’s the Seattle Times story about this month’s numbers: Seattle home price growth is nearly double any other U.S. city

Check back tomorrow for our monthly look at Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2017-09-26)

The post Case-Shiller: Everybody get on board the Seattle real estate rocket ship! appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

August market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here’s a quick excerpt from their press release:

“For August, we experienced a more robust market than anticipated,” remarked Diedre Hanes, principal managing broker-South Snohomish County at Coldwell Banker Bain in Lynnwood. “Compared to years past, we’ve seen very limited slowdown,” she added.
…
“Nobody likes this market, – not sellers, not buyers, not real estate brokers,” proclaimed Northwest MLS director Dick Beeson. The reasons vary, he explained. “Sellers aren’t necessarily happy because they think they could be leaving money on the table. Buyers think they’re paying too much. And brokers think sales are more complex and fraught with peril than previously, making them harder to close.”

Beeson, the principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Gig Harbor, believes Seattle and surrounding areas are “forever changed” by this market. “The change isn’t going to be painless. Housing scarcity and increasing prices are sore spots.” Whether price increases will subside is anyone’s guess, he added.

Prices aren’t the only worry, suggested Haines. She said low appraisals occur on about one of every three sales. “The low appraisal number remains consistent at $25,000-to-$30,000 below sales price when it occurs. It makes one wonder why – coincidence or something else?” she stated.

Haines noted multiple offers are continuing, but added a note of caution to sellers: “Overpriced listings are not getting showings or offers. Buyers are well educated and well informed, which definitely eases fears of a developing bubble.”

“Everyone who is buying right now is so smart! What a great decision to buy a home in this market, no matter the price!” As if a home salesman is going to come out in a press release and suggest that buyers are ignorant and making stupid decisions. I’m not saying that’s the case for buyers today, but if it were, would agents ever say it? Of course not.

Now let’s dive into the numbers for August.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

August 2017	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	2,820	-2.7%	-17.5%
Closed Sales	2,797	+2.6%	+0.3%
SAAS (?)	1.20	-5.7%	-0.2%
Pending Sales	3,073	+4.2%	-3.8%
Months of Supply	1.01	-5.1%	-17.7%
Median Price*	$650,000	-1.2%	+18.2%

Every month I hope to see some good news for buyers in the numbers. Every month I am disappointed. Listings are still in short supply, sales are strong, and prices just keep going up at a breakneck pace. Sorry, buyers.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales increased three percent between July and August. Last year over the same period closed sales decreased half a percent. Year-over-year closed sales were up less than a percent.

Pending sales rose four percent from July to AUgust, and were down four percent year-over-year.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory fell three percent from July to August, and was down seventeen percent from a year earlier.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were down five percent month-over-month, and up just slightly from last year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

Still the same story we’ve seen for a while. Great time to be a seller, terrible time to be a buyer.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Year-over-year price changes slowed just barely between July and August but still sit at a very high level.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

Down slightly from July, but very close to the all-time high.

August 2017: $650,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article from the Seattle Times: King County home prices surge 18 percent, most on record for this time of year

The post NWMLS: Seattle housing market shows no signs of slowing in August appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Up 1.4 percent May to June
Up 13.4 percent year-over-year.
Up 19.4 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 1.4 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 11.0 percent.

Home price growth in Seattle as measured by Case-Shiller show no signs of slowing. Seattle leads the nation yet again in year-over-year home price growth. However, there was one city that passed Seattle in month-over-month price gains in June—Detroit, of all places.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes hit #1 in February and has held that position since then, through May.

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Seattle’s year-over-year price growth edged up yet again from May to June, to a new post-peah high. The highest level since October 2006. Yet again in June, none of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked metro areas gained more year-over-year than Seattle. In fact, none of the other cities even saw double-digit growth. From February through August of last year, Portland had been in the #1 slot above Seattle.

The same eight cities as last month hit new all-time highs again in June: San Francisco, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Portland, Dallas, and Seattle.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through June.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the 119 months since the price peak in Seattle prices are up 19.4 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Here’s the Seattle Times story about this month’s numbers: Seattle leads nation in home price growth for 10th straight month

Check back tomorrow for our monthly look at Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2017-08-29)

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle On Top Again in June appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

July market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here’s a quick excerpt from their press release

“We should be entering the summer doldrums, but I don’t see that happening,” reported Diedre Haines, principal managing broker-South Snohomish County at Coldwell Banker Bain in Lynnwood. “Inventory remains low, but prices and demand continue to increase, prompting murmurs of a looming bubble,” she commented, adding, “Some say yes, and just as many are saying no” when asked about the likelihood of a bubble.
…
The leap in prices may have some people crying “housing bubble,” said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “I still feel confident we’re not headed in that direction. Bubbles result from irresponsible lending practices, but buyers in King County have high credit scores and higher than average down payments. This area also has a high percentage of homeowners who are ‘equity rich’ which means their home is worth more than twice what they owe. For a housing bubble to occur we would expect to see far lower equity, down payments and credit quality.”

Home salespeople have a historically good record when it comes to predicting housing bubbles, so you know you can believe what OB Jacobi says. (That was meant to be read with an extremely sarcastic tone.)

Now let’s dive into the numbers for July.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

July 2017	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	2,898	+11.4%	-18.5%
Closed Sales	2,727	-5.7%	-2.7%
SAAS (?)	1.28	-6.4%	-4.0%
Pending Sales	2,950	-13.0%	-7.8%
Months of Supply	1.06	+18.1%	-16.2%
Median Price*	$658,000	+0.8%	+18.6%

Prices keep climbing as listings are still scarce. What more is there to say? So far this year we haven’t seen any movement in the trends that point to some kind of change coming soon in the market.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales fell six percent between June and July. Last year over the same period closed sales decreased three percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down three percent.

Pending sales fell thirteen percent from June to July, and were down eight percent year-over-year.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory rose 11 percent from June to July. Unfortunately for buyers, year-over-year inventory was still down 18 percent.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

New listings were down fifteen percent month-over-month, and down seven percent from last year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

No real change here. Supply and demand is still very much trending in sellers’ favor.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

July saw the highest year-over-year price increase since March 2016.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

Yet another new all-time record high.

July 2017: $658,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article from the Seattle Times: King County home prices grow $100,000 in a year for first time; West Bellevue jumps 41 percent

The post NWMLS: Listings and Sales Slip, Prices Edge Up in July appeared first on Seattle Bubble.